DrumBeat: April 19, 2007
Posted by Leanan on April 19, 2007 - 8:11am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Coming soon to a test tube near you: America's new war.This war won't be fought with tanks and machine guns and improvised explosive devices, though. Instead, the generals in the War on Oil will employ techniques such as enzymatic hydrolysis and dry milling.
Rather than the conventional bullets and bombs, combatants' weapons of choice will be switchgrass, wheat straw, corn and other material from the biomass.
The battle lines have been drawn and the objective is clear: Get the world's biggest oil consumers weaned from their generations-old addiction to oil and establish the United States as self-sufficient producer of energy from alternative sources.
No Problem? Shell's Patent Application for Oil Shale Extraction
Alfred Donovan, a patent lawyer whose blog covers Royal Dutch Shell, takes a look at the largest patent filing in history. Shell thinks they have a sound method for getting top quality oil out of oil shale rock, which would remain profitable as long as oil stayed above $30/barrel. If it works, it would also be better for the environment than conventional drilling.
Egypt weighs domestic energy needs as export demands grow
The cement industry's environmental impact is worrying and energy-intensive industries are eating up crucial resources - causing the government to rethink how best to allocate its natural gas reserves.The growth of these industries has coincided with rising domestic demand for gas, putting a huge burden on the treasury as energy subsidies have swelled from E£1.2bn ($220m, €162.8m, £110.8m) in 1999 to E£42bn, according to figures on a government website.
DOE to Issue Second Solicitation for Purchase of Crude Oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced that it has issued the second of several solicitations planned to purchase up to four million barrels of crude oil for the United States’ crude oil reserve. The first solicitation, issued March 16, 2007, resulted in no awards because the Office of Fossil Energy determined that the bids were too high and not a reasonable value for taxpayers.
Innovation a must for oil and gas growth
Major Gulf producers have announced plans to increase capacity by more than 50 per cent by 2020, equivalent to an unprecedented average of 1 million barrels/day of net productive capacity per year. These plans take on new significance in light of increasing global energy demand and worldwide economic growth.
Iran seeks to make breakthrough in oil industry
"Implementation of such projects, which is in line with Iran's long-term strategy on energy, will create a giant market of dlrs 250 billion for the next 20 years."This will prepare an appropriate ground for activities of reputable domestic and foreign companies."
Russia's Gazprom formally takes control of Sakhalin-2 oil-and-gas project
Company representatives put their signatures on the agreement that sees Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Corp. halve their stakes in the development on the Pacific island of Sakhalin.
Sinopec mulls 60b yuan refinery for East China
The Lianyungang plant would increase Sinopec's ability to tap demand in a province whose economy expanded 18.8 percent last year, faster than the national rate of 10.7 percent.
Turkey to Inaugurate Oil Pipeline
At an estimated cost of $1.5 billion, the 550-kilometer-long pipeline, to be completed in 2009, will carry Kazakh and Azeri oil from the Black Sea port of Samsun to Ceyhan on the Mediterranean, bypassing the congested Turkish straits.
Hundreds of pro and college teams criss-cross the continent by plane, play in huge stadiums lit at enormous energy expense, in front of fans most of whom have driven miles to the game.I'm a jock and a fan; I live and die with my beloved Canucks (we're just starting the playoffs). I empathize with Man U fans, Cowboy fans and Sonic fans. But the dangers from climate change and peak oil are so serious that we must reduce our use of fossil fuels radically and immediately.
The Greening of Wal-Mart Shoppers
How green are Wal-Mart (WMT) shoppers? We're about to find out. The world's largest retailer is launching a Live Better Index to track customers' purchases of five eco-friendly products: compact fluorescent light bulbs, organic milk, concentrated/reduced-packaging liquid laundry detergents, extended-life paper products and organic baby food.
Petroleum Institute Reaches Out
Red Cavaney, the president of the American Petroleum Institute had a conference call with bloggers and newspaper reporters today. The API is also doing a press tour across the country to educate the media on energy issues.
NM Senators Introduce Measure to use Energy More Efficiently
U.S. Senators Jeff Bingaman and Pete Domenici today introduced legislation to reduce our nation's use of fossil fuels by improving efficiency in vehicles, buildings, home appliances and industrial equipment - saving consumers more than $12 billion annually.
Ghana: Can $600M get us 400 megawattsfrom nuclear 8 years?
As Ghana discusses nuclear energy, we must look to the example and success of the energy form elsewhere to inform our decisions. Despite public ignorance and government reluctance to embrace nuclear energy in past decades, it is now being heralded as the solution to energy problems the world over - economically, environmentally it seems to make sense, and The Statesman supports calls for its rapid, although cautious, implementation.
From Ethanol to Polar Bears: Energy Summit Wraps Up in Venezuela
Hours after the departure of the first president to leave, Argentina's Nestor Kirchner, diplomats were still haggling over the biofuels portion of the summit statement, though accord was reached on rebranding the South American Community of Nations as Unasur and endowing it with a permanent secretariat based in Quito.
Venezula to Only Recognize Book Value in Orinoco Deals
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said the country only plans to recognize the book value of four extra-heavy oil projects when compensating foreign firms for the investments they have made.
Silva, on the other side of the logical spectrum, seems to have balanced politics and economic logic well. "The truth is that biofuel is a way out for the poor countries of the world," Silva said. "The problem of food in the world now is not lack of production of food. It's a lack of income for people to buy food."
Venezuela, Chile boost ties, agree to develop Orinoco fields
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Chilean counterpart Michelle Bachelet agreed to boost energy and economic ties between their nations, forming a joint venture to develop Venezuela's oil-rich Orinoco Belt.
You are now entering an oil-free zone
Some towns aren't waiting to see whether there will be alternative energy sources when the oil runs out - they're already trying to do without it.
South American Ethanol Debate Highlights Alt Fuel Insanity
But one thing is for sure: America’s newfound love for ethanol is creating some major political and economic side effects.
Any wiped-out surfer knows all too well the back-breaking power of the ocean's waves.Now, a fledgling industry is harnessing the incessant motion of waves, tides and currents to create the world's newest form of renewable energy.
Price forecasts red hot for uranium
CIBC World Markets Inc. has raised its price forecasts for uranium oxide by 40 per cent, citing an environmentally driven renaissance in nuclear power and a gap between demand and supply for the metal.
MIT researchers say they have developed an efficient chemical process for making propane from corn or sugarcane. They are incorporating a startup this week to commercialize the biopropane process, which they hope will find a place in the existing $21 billion U.S. market for the fuel.
Excrement from elephants excites biofuel engineers
Scientists in the Netherlands have discovered a fungus that exists in elephant dung that will help them break down fibres and wood into biofuel.
Carbon tax threatens to ground Asia tourism
Asia's US$100 billion international tourism industry is being put in jeopardy by a campaign by European environmentalists to limit air travel, with politicians poised to price long-haul destinations out of the market.
Shell, Nuon Open First Dutch Offshore Wind Farm
The companies invested over 200 million euros (US$270 million) in the 108 megawatt wind park on the North Sea, which also serves as a demonstration project to gain technical knowledge and monitor the affects on marine life, they said.
High-tech features that will save gas
Buyers who want to maximize fuel economy and reduce tailpipe emission, including CO2 (carbon dioxide), might want to look for these high-tech features designed to increase fuel economy...
Dave Cohen: Deconstructing the New York Times
There is little doubt that the current and future state of the world's oil production is "an important social and political issue." Given the warning signs of a looming crisis and the large associated uncertainties, it is hard to think of an issue more critical to industrial economies than maintaining a reliable oil supply in the coming decade and beyond.
Kansas: Bistate rail idea lives on
“We have economic reasons to see light rail succeed. There is also the energy crisis itself. Even if the world settles down, the global demands (will continue) with countries like China and India requiring huge energy supplies,” he said.
Garamendi and Chiang vote against inexpensive power
What if one of the world's premier energy companies was offering to spend billions of their own capital to provide California with the fuel needed to generate inexpensive and almost zero emission electricity for the whole state?Sounds like a pretty good deal, does it not? In one of the most stupefying votes ever, the state Lands Commission voted last Monday to deny a state land lease to BHP Billiton for establishing a facility for liquefied natural gas 14 miles offshore from Port Hueneme.
WEB 2.0 - Microsoft: Datacenter growth defying Moore's Law
Microsoft, IBM, HP, Sun and others have also formed a consortium called the Green Grid to tackle an impending energy crisis that threatens data center growth.
Udall, Enviros Want Oil Shale Development Slowed Down
Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) and environmental groups are on the same page when it comes to curbing the Bureau of Land Management's ability to approve commercial oil shale leases next year: They want to revoke the authority.
Tight supply pushes gas prices higher
West Coast refineries don’t produce enough gasoline to meet demand. Because the region is isolated from other sources of supply, imports must be shipped by sea from the Gulf of Mexico or Singapore, and that’s expensive.
Pakistan: Women block road to protest power outage
Hundreds of infuriated women and children Wednesday blocked the main Peshawar-Bajaur road to protest against the non-availability of electricity in their area....They threatened to throw away all the mobile towers and electricity poles in the area if the government failed to restore the electricity. It would be better to die on the road instead of seeing their children dying of heat inside the houses, they threatened.
Britain is losing its green fields, as the grass that once fattened cattle is replaced by oilseed rape. The bright yellow tide has upset lovers of traditional country views. But what about the effects we can't see? What is this chemical-hungry crop doing to the environment - and our health?
Strong growth rate in China fuels worries
Another problem that fuel worries about the economy is the developing of high energy consuming industries. As electricity shortage is basically alleviated, some of them loosened their control. Electricity consumption increased more than 16 percent in January and February period. China's top planner is urging local authorities to adopt different electricity prices toward eight high energy-consuming industries. The move aims to limit energy consumption and protect environment.
Albert Bates, guide for our post-petroleum, globally warmed future
The April issue of Vanity Fair-online features The Farm, an intentional community in Tennessee. Albert Bates gets a lot of ink in that article, as he has spent most of his life on The Farm making his mark in both publishing and education. There, his original skill set as a lawyer and horseman in 1972 was expanded to include Permaculture design, and he became an author (Climate in Crisis, introduction by Al Gore, 1990). He became a global authority on ecovillages, founding the Global Village Institute for Appropriate Technology. He directs the Ecovillage Training Center at The Farm, where he has instructed students from over 50 nations since 1994.
Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: Have the Troubles Begun?
In recent years, numerous books have been written about life after world oil production peaks. Most depict radical change, as oil-powered transportation, suburban living, and large-scale food production and distribution wither. The truth is nobody really has a good idea about what is going to happen. The world has never been to peak oil before. There are many complicating factors -- rates of oil depletion and production, the state of the world’s economy, and the gap between rich and poor nations to name a few. Making a meaningful projection of what life will be like five, ten, or 20 years from now is, as usual, fraught with uncertainties.The one thing everybody agrees on is that all sorts of “bad” things are bound to happen as we transition from plentiful oil to scarcity. For the sake of a better term, let’s call these bad things “the troubles.”
Kunstler: Oil Futures Bidding To Heat Up As Energy Crisis Looms
Oil ended 2006 roughly where it began, at just over $60 a barrel. This reassured the public that all talk about Peak Oil was hysterical blather from a lunatic fringe. It was reinforced by the publication of the mendacious Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) report issued this fall - a tragic document put out by a giant public relations firm representing the oil industry - with the mission of staving off windfall profits taxes and other regulatory moves that a true resource emergency might recommend.But beyond this debate, in the background, another ominous trend can account for the stalling of oil prices in 2006 - totally unrecognized by the public and ignored by the news media: Prices on the oil futures market leveled off because the Third World has effectively dropped out of bidding for it - and using it. They cannot afford it at $60 a barrel.
Iran Oil Minister: Iran Not Supplying Extra Oil to the Market
Iran's oil minister said Wednesday the country hasn't been increasing oil output to the global market as prices firmed.Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have held back some 1 million barrels a day of crude oil output in recent months in reaction to what they said was an oversupplied market.
But this month tanker trackers expect members to loosen the reigns and leak oil back into the market, as demand and prices firm. Tracker Oil Movements estimated daily exports by OPEC, excluding Iraq, will rise almost 400,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to April 21, compared with the same period to March 24.
Ethanol: Energy Panacea or False Promise?
Ethanol, more commonly known as drinking alcohol, is touted by some as a viable alternative fuel for vehicles. Although its energy content is roughly two-thirds that of gasoline by volume, ethanol is increasingly flowing into gas tanks, with some one out of every eight gallons of gas sold in the United States containing 8 to 10 percent ethanol.Yet there is heated debate among scientists as to whether or not ethanol really is good for the environment.
Top Russian minister defends oil, gas decisions
Sergei Ivanov, Russia's powerful first deputy prime minister, has defended the return of oil and gas assets to Russian control, the Financial Times said."They are our resources and how to develop them and where to get funds from is our business," Ivanov -- seen as a potential successor to President Vladimir Putin -- told the newspaper in an interview published on Thursday but given on April 12.
Nissan senses US market for small, cheap cars
Sensing an untapped market, Japanese automaker Nissan is "seriously" mulling the launch of a small car in the United States priced under 10,000 dollars, top executive Carlos Ghosn said Wednesday.
World needs to axe greenhouse gases by 80%: report
The world will have to axe greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050, more deeply than planned, to have an even chance of curbing global warming in line with European Union goals, researchers said on Thursday.
Dodd favors corporate tax for emissions
Sen. Chris Dodd, splitting with his Democratic presidential rivals over the best way to cut pollution and curb global warming, wants to tax corporations for their carbon dioxide emissions.
Doing right thing isn't easy, even for those who want to
Most Americans believe that dramatic steps are needed to conserve energy and reduce the threat of global warming, but they are willing to go only so far in changing their lifestyles to "go green."



Tom Whipple...the master of getting the "Big Picture" without sounding alarmists.
He's one of the wisest voices out there in printed media and manages to boil down a lot of information into layman's terms...easily digested.
Another great article by Tom.
Earlier this week, the IPCC released chapter 14 of its assessment on Global Warming impacts, a 67 page document describing likely impact on North America. It has received significant press coverage, for example here.
Maybe I'm just daft, but I can't seem to find the document itself. I poked around the IPCC site quite a bit with no luck. Can anyone help?
The document is here: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Thanks for your response. Unfortunately, that's not what I was looking for.
The document you posted is the 22 page summary of the full report. The full report hasn't been released yet, but is being released one chapter at a time. Chapter 14, a 67 page document dealing with impact on North America, was released on Tuesday. (A few more details are here. Apparently, the IPCC had a press conference concurrently with its release. Unfortunately, I can't find the document itself (chapter 14 of the full report) anywhere.
Also, although the summary you cited has been extensively covered on TOD and elsewhere, I haven't seen much coverage of the N. America chapter here or on other blogs. (If I'm wrong, someone please advise!)
Here's a few links:
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/53009.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/6528979.stm
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/04/06/dust.bowl.ap/
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070416/ap_on_sc/warming_water;_ylt=ArGdFvTX...
I don't think the chapter you are interested in has been released yet. At least, not online.
Thanks for the links.
Its a bit strange, because it sure sounds like its been released. For example, the WashPost reported
Lots of news organizations, including some at the links you provided, are writing as if they have read it. This sure makes it sound to me like its been released. And its a bit strange, in 2007, that its not available online days after it was "provided." But I can't find it anywhere so perhaps your correct and it really isn't available online, and all these articles were just based on a press release or press conference.
The location given for the 67-page report is www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/FGD/Ch14.pdf. It appears that .pdf file is not currently online, however, the Google cache of the document is available.
Thanks! Clearly, you are a much better googler than I :)
Interestingly, not only is the pdf not available online, but the draft at the google cache says its a "final draft for government review" and says "CONFIDENTIAL: Do Not Cite – Do Not Quote" on the top of every page. Wonder what's going on.
Interesting. And much as I suspected. Rather than modelling they are simply observing present changes and present trends and extrapolating them into the future. If the popular mind has not even gone that far and is merely denying reality that's better than nothing. But basically the best-informed are simply at saying the future will be much like the present only worse.
In other words no one knows the future. Duh. But the authors have a bad feeling.
I would like to complement Kunstler on the remarks posted above that he prepared for the "Daily Reckoning." Sometimes, his reasoning and analysis are a bit careless, and his tone is not the most appealing; but in this instance I have no complaints in this regard.
Amazing that he has basically been saying this stuff since Geography of Nowhere in 1994.
I plead innocent to the charge and offer as evidence a draft of my most recent work (not quite ready).
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2007-04a.htm
Best Hopes,
Alan
I first read the 'Geography Of Nowhere' after returning from a U.S. visit last summer. The book is amazing in showing how absolutely nothing has changed since its publication. Incredible - and if I still lived in America, deeply, deeply disturbing. As it is, what struck me was how insightful it was.
Personally, I wonder how Kunstler deals with the fact - apart from his belief that peak oil will be what causes American suburbia to collapse.
Obviously, if he ever had a daughter, her name should be Cassandra, if only to make an ironic joke.
PrisonerX, or someone else who might know:
Below is a post from Drumbeat on 18. April describing a special insect. Anyone know what insect being described?
I must confess being very stimulated by a lot of the non-energy topics. It's fun to follow informed discussions, almost regardless of the topic.
I agree. People here want to talk about oil and energy, but that's just the appetizer IMHO. The type of person who understands and CONTINUES to come here are a certain, rare breed. For this reason, I also find it beneficial to discuss other topics requiring a bit of logic, insight, and knowledge. If someone here is so irritated by this, please tell me a board/blog where I can discuss a range of topics with the same levels of intelligence. This place is more valuable than any other board/blog I've come across. My finance boards are great for finance, but they can't connect to Science. Science is the cornerstone IMHO.
Did not see the program, but some of the longest feeding tubes in proportion to body size are found in "Hummingbird Moths", (Genus "Hemaris") and they have the flight abilities their name suggests
I have observed something similiar. My Mother had what she called moon flowers that bloomed only at night. The petals folded up during the day. The white flower was about 4 inches in dia. and about 4 inches deep and similiar to an Easter Lily but more full and larger. Any way at night a gigantic moth would come by that had a long rolled up tube and when it got near the flower it would unwind the coiled up tube and poke it in to the flower.
Later in the season the plant would produce large seed pods the size of golf balls with many green soft spikes sticking out in all directions.
The Insect is a moth. The flower is an orchid.
http://www.orchids.mu/Species/Angraecum/Angraecum_sesquipedale.htm
Thats the predicted bug
http://www.orchids.mu/Species/Angraecum/Angraecum_sesquipedale.htm
12 inches, thats some nose/hose.
I think the film/video must have been the first time it had been taped doing its thing.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
Re: Iran Oil Minister: Iran Not Supplying Extra Oil to the Market Article
Big deal...wow...they aren't going to supply the 50,000 extra barrels a day(of oil (not liquids)) they have....oooh...we're scared.
The reality is...they probably lost much of that in decline, or if not, in internal consumption since they provided those EIA numbers.
The ONLY country that theoretically can make a difference for the next oil shock is KSA.
Of course, this is a theory...peak oil is not.
The information I have seen suggests that Iran is on a long relatively flat plateau. Their production probably is not down by that much but their internal consumption is. This is why civilian nuclear power makes sense for them - so they can sell more of their oil for cash. Of course, anyone who believes they will not also investigate weapon usage for enriched uranium is someone I would consider delusional. I am not arguing that we attack them first though. That is flat out immoral. However, if I were president of the US, I'd make sure they knew that any first use of nuclear weapons by them would be met with a response so overwhelming that Iran would cease to exist. Civilian nuclear power? Fine. Weapons for defense? Fine. First use? Down you go.
Of course that is my opinion and I am sure others will feel differently, from those who would never attack Iran even if Iran was bombing the USA directly to those who would attack Iran first because they represent a "potential threat". I have strong opinions about both such groups of people but I won't post such inflammatory thoughts here.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I agree. Let them have nuclear power...it is very good planning.
Even a nuclear weapon program would be reasonable given that Pakistan, India and Isreal can have them...!?
But use one, and cease to exist...utterly.
But, really..."World - we will not be increasing our oil shipments"...how silly...there spare capacity is barely rounding error.
Just feather ruffing..."we are important".
At this point, Iran is the least of our worries. Russia is more a concern, IMHO. And that will only get uglier as Russia goes off a net exports cliff in the next two years.
What figures make you think that Russia will go off a net exports cliff in next two years?
I'm not saying it will or won't, as I don't have access to data to draw this conclusion myself.
Can you elaborate on this?
Read somewhere, do not remember where, that Iran already could have nuclear warheads from the ca 200 missing from Ukraina after the collaps of the sovjetunion.
Perhaps this is why the iranians are so tough in their talks??
If so what would happen to Israel if US attacks Iran??
I happen to believe that George Washington was a wise man when he told us as a nation to mind our own business and not get caught up in "entangling alliances", but having gone and done that anyway, we could at least have the sense to not start trouble. The US badly needs to NOT attack Iran unless Iran openly initiates hostilities themselves. In other words, return to what we used to do - don't hit first but be able to hit back if need be.
Unfortunately, I do not expect this to occur with this administration or with a Hillary Clinton administration. She'll just spin our presence in Iraq differently, keep us there under a different pretext, and continue to pursue the war that the multinational corporations want.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Hans Buehler told me on the phone in 1995 that "They have nukes."
Cheers
The information I have seen suggests that the United States is on a long relatively slow decline. This is why civilian nuclear power makes sense for them. Of course, they also build and maintain the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world, which is always able to be used at a moment's notice from a variety of ships, submarines, aircraft and land bases, and they have recently actively threatened the use of nuclear weapons against Iran. I am not arguing that we attack them first though. That is flat out immoral. However, if I were leader of a nuclear power, I'd make sure the U.S. knew that any first use of nuclear weapons by them would be met with a response so overwhelming that the United States would cease to exist. Civilian nuclear power? Fine. Weapons for defense? Fine. First use? Down you go.
[With apologies to GreyZone.]
Fiction writer Nelson DeMille's book Wild Fire is about a US nuclear response to any use of nuclear weapons against the US.
I recommend listen to the cd rather than reading the book for the reason that DeMille's books are WORDY. It is long: about 15 cds.
We barely finished listening on a Albuqueruque - Austin round trip.
Nelson DeMille's X-RATED book Night Fall is worth listening, not reading, to.
I listened to it on car trip from Albuquerque to Austin in about January 2007. I finished listening to it on a flight back to Albuquerque.
It is about what, in fact, may have happened to TWA 800.
Actually we do need to be told to sit down and behave but I'm not sure anyone else is big enough to do it.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
You're living in a dream world. Rough estimate:
Russia: 7200 active (plus 8800 "inactive reserve")
UK: 200
France: 350
China: 400
India: 60 ?
Israel: 75-130? (unknown, but they almost certainly have them)
Pakistan: 60 ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons
Wikipedia is not necessarily accurate - heck, no one really knows how many weapons are out there - but "thousands, in the hands of many governments including a military dictatorship" is certainly accurate.
It totally astounds me you can concern yourself about the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons some time in the future and not be concerned about thousands of nuclear weapons at the ready, today.
Um, can you even read?
I said I am not worried about Iran using nukes. I'd welcome them to the nuclear club under the same rules as everyone else who is already there - shoot first and get your ass kicked. My point is that we should NOT be sticking our noses into Iran's business unless they stick their nose into someone else's business. Got that yet? Or do I need to quote my original statement just to make you actually READ it?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Not to mention they really do need the nuclear technology if they even think they have a shot at maintaining their society. Oil is all they have. Iran is much like the middle east, in that it's pretty barren, no? It's been inhabited roughly the longest dating back to the cradle of civilization, Mesopotamia. It's been destroyed over the centuries and now it's mostly sand. While they could hand them off to someone ala dirty bomb, I hardly think it's going to be worse than right now.
As someone stated, there are so many Russian nukes missing, I hardly doubt this marginal increase in the supply is going to realistically alter the landscape. I just get a kick out of people when the US decides something and they just go along and accept stupid conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is the crux of the problem. Freakonomics does a great job of explaining this in the beginning of the book and goes on to point out how wrong conventional wisdom usually is in most circumstances.
Also I think I stated this before, but if you examine the Iran/Iraq war, the Iranians, led by the same people, chose to end the conflict to spare their existence. If they wanted to destroy the enemies completely, they would have unleashed the greatest war between only two countries in modern time. Religious differences are far greater than any I've studied. It's so deep seated and ingrained, like no other fracture within religion. Did the Protestants battle the Catholics, other than Ireland? If you step back and realize they want to live too, they aren't going to launch a nuke at us head on because they know if would be the end to the country. Speaking of which, can they even hit this country from Iran? Last I knew, they can't. Passing it off to another group is a given IMHO.
With all the passion and brutality you could ask for:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years'_War
Aldous Huxley's book Grey Eminence is a splendid portrait of one of the key players, & how theology can fan the flames of war.
Yes, I can read. You said:
In context I assumed the "we" refers to the United States and "anyone else big enough" refers to another country with nuclear weapons. I pointed out that there are plenty of other weapons out there, and Russia (at least) is "big enough" to render the United States a radioactive disaster zone.
Point, counter-point.
Let's just let it rest. We are in agreement that the United States should not be "poking its nose" into Iran's business.