DrumBeat: May 26, 2007
Posted by Robert Rapier on May 26, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil industry preps for Gulf storm season
If you think gasoline prices are high now, consider the eye-popping possibilities if another monster storm pummels the Gulf of Mexico this hurricane season, the way Katrina and Rita battered the petroleum-rich waters in 2005.
'I think it's important to say, 'as best we can be,'' said Frank Glaviano, vice president of production for Shell Exploration and Production, an arm of Royal Dutch Shell PLC. (NYSE:RDS A) 'We thought we were prepared, and then we saw a storm like never before in terms of Katrina. ... Rita and Katrina are now part of what can happen -- not a possibility, but a probability.'
Japan Infiltrates the Middle East
Japan has many good reasons to worry about the supply of its economy's lifeblood. It may face serious consequences from the new energy rush and the prospect of reaching peak global oil production, particularly in the face of rising competitors in Asia. For example, China alongside India and Iran form the triangle of Asian ancient civilization. China has a long history of trading with the Middle East that goes back many centuries to the Silk Road era. Many Chinese citizens are now working in oil-producing Arab countries. China's rising political power, stemming from its economic growth, has tempted autocratic rulers of Middle East countries to develop their relationship with Beijing, hoping to balance the West's long-term interference in the region.
Risky business: Big Oil's billion-dollar juggling act
Rarely has one company faced such grave trouble at so many places in such a thin slice of time. The breakdowns form a composite of the challenges an oil giant faces at a time when fields like Prudhoe Bay are running short of oil, the refinery infrastructure in places like Texas City is out of date and overtaxed, and the prospects for success in exploration are dicier than ever.
Survey: Car buyers want size, power and better mileage.
Of all the respondents - not just those currently shopping for a car - just 52 percent said they would be willing to get a smaller vehicle to get better mileage. Forty-one percent said they would be willing to give up performance and only 45 percent said they would take fewer amenities in exchange for better mileage.
Despite the recent price jump, a University of Southern Maine economist predicted record-high traffic into Maine at the start of Memorial Day weekend. Northbound traffic on the turnpike was projected to rise by 4 percent over last year. The forecast took into account gas prices, weather and traffic trends.
Blame gas prices on the Prius?
Getting 60 miles to the gallon, Prius drivers buy less gas, which is what the president said he wants. But the rest of us may be paying the long term price for the popularity of alternative fuels. So can we blame the high price of gas on Prius owners? "It's hard for me to be a judge, but put the pieces of the puzzle together, I might be thinking what you're thinking," said Prius salesman David Womack.
Last Wednesday the House of Representatives passed legislation instituting penalties of up to $150 million for companies and up to $2 million and 10 years’ imprisonment for individuals found guilty of gasoline “price gouging.” But the real gouger driving up gasoline prices is not the private sector, it is our government. To “gouge” means to extort, to take by force--something that oil companies and gas stations have no power to do. Unlike a government, which can forcibly take away its citizens’ money and dictate their behavior, an oil company can only make us an offer to buy its products, which we are free to reject.
A Gas Crisis 30 Years in the Making
Embrace the memory of the average $3.21 cents we'll pay for each gallon of regular unleaded gasoline purchased this Memorial Holiday weekend. The chances are we'll pay a lot more next year and the year after that. What the oil companies are doing isn't moral. Nor is it illegal. But it is business.
Contributions from Stoneleigh:
More cite hardship from gas prices
Despite the skyrocketing cost, slightly fewer people than last year said they are reducing their driving, trimming other expenses or curtailing vacation plans due to higher energy costs. Asked to name a fair price for a gallon of gasoline, for the first time most volunteered $2 and up, and not less than $2.
Baird stands by refinery decision
A proposed oil refinery in New Brunswick will go through the "toughest" environmental assessment before being built, Environment Minister John Baird insisted Friday, despite complaints the project is being allowed to skip some procedural steps.
The federal government announced Thursday it would study only the marine component of the $7-billion Irving Oil refinery proposed for Saint John, N.B., and leave the more serious environmental assessment of pollution issues to the provincial government.
That decision infuriated environmentalists, who claimed the governments were taking a shortcut to rush the refinery into production.
In most Indian cities, being middle class means owning your own power company. As summer temperatures approach 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit), energy demand from electric fans and air conditioners is putting stretched utilities under stress.
Against a peak demand of 104,000 megawatts last month, supply was 90,000 megawatts. That is a shortfall of 14 percent.Rationing of power, which goes on throughout the year, becomes unbearable during the summer months. People resign themselves to blackouts that sometimes last all day, even longer if overburdened cables burn or aging transformers collapse.
Households and businesses create their own electricity by burning diesel in noisy, inefficient, polluting generators. Those who cannot afford to be power producers buy inverters: chargeable batteries that store power from the utilities for later use.
Perhaps most astoundingly, late last year Russia quietly passed Saudi Arabia to become the world's biggest oil producer. After Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently agreed, face to face, to tone down their increasingly inflammatory rhetoric and concentrate instead on business, Russia's growing oil output and the U.S.'s corresponding decline seem increasingly meaningful, if not ominous.
Nigerian oil unions end strike after government concessions
The government agreed to a 15 percent raise for all employees of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company and union officials ordered workers back to work on Saturday, said Peter Esele, leader of the white collar workers' bloc.
The strike did not affect crude output from Africa's biggest producer, but workers began leaving their jobs at export terminals on Friday, threatening to slow the flow of crude from Nigeria at a time when oil prices are near all-time highs. The work action began Thursday, after the government hastily sold off a refinery.
Esele said the tens of thousands of Nigerian workers in the oil industry would still participate in a separate two-day work stoppage beginning Monday to protest the country's deeply flawed April elections.
Risky business: Big Oil's billion-dollar juggling act
The can-do culture of BP's past pushed it to explore the depths of oceans, deal with unsavory political regimes, pioneer the era of oil-industry consolidation and test the limits of technology. Malone was in Alaska trying to reignite BP's can-do spirit after nearly a decade in which the company scrimped on routine maintenance and ignored safety issues that led to the disaster in Texas and the spill in Alaska.
And now, an inability to tackle daunting technological challenges has forced BP to delay pumping from one of its brightest prospects for the future: BP's massive Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico. A nearly 3-year delay in the startup of the world's largest floating oil platform, which covers an area the size of three football fields, is setting back the arrival of enough oil to boost total U.S. production by nearly 5 percent.
Rarely has one company faced such grave trouble at so many places in such a thin slice of time. The breakdowns form a composite of the challenges an oil giant faces at a time when fields like Prudhoe Bay are running short of oil, the refinery infrastructure in places like Texas City is out of date and overtaxed, and the prospects for success in exploration are dicier than ever.
The crisis at BP is symptomatic of challenges oil companies face in trying to slake the world's thirst for oil. The six "super-major" independent oil companies together take in nearly $1.5 trillion each year. Yet the residue from the cutbacks and scrimping during the days of $10-a-barrel oil in the late 1990s has left the industry ill-equipped to handle even the slightest hiccup.
Ottawa has a plan to protect infrastructure from terrorists
The plan, in the works for almost three years, is revealed in briefing notes prepared for Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day after an al-Qaida affiliate in the Arabian Peninsula threatened in February to attack the petroleum interests of countries, such as Canada, that supply oil and gas to the United States.
The national strategy would reach far beyond the oil and gas sector to cover everything from power plants and telecommunications networks to banking systems, hospitals, transport routes, food-distribution networks, manufacturing facilities and the water supply.
"There is a growing consensus in both the public and private sectors that there is a need for both critical infrastructure protection and cyber-security strategies to bring together existing capacities as well as to set new priorities," states a briefing note prepared for Day on Feb. 19 and obtained under the Access to Information Act.
Uganda scraps plan to cut rainforest for palm oil
Uganda's government has scrapped plans to convert thousands of hectares of rainforest on an island in Lake Victoria into a palm oil plantation, the environment minister said on Saturday.
President Yoweri Museveni has faced intense opposition, including violent protests, over proposals to give private firms the right to bulldoze protected forests to create farms.
Motorists driven to Mexican fuel
U.S. motorists are flocking to gas pumps south of the border to save 25% or more on the cost of a fill-up — courtesy of the Mexican government.
Worried about inflation, Mexican officials are keeping a lid on retail prices at the state-owned petroleum company Pemex. Regular-grade gasoline in this border town is selling for about $2.60 a gallon. With prices in California averaging $3.43 a gallon — and topping $4 at some stations — Golden State residents such as Roger Moore are grabbing a deal while they can.
Alberta group wants province to design energy policy
In the heart of free market Alberta, a prominent industry group is calling on the province to design an energy policy to better manage growth.
The Canadian Energy Pipeline Association is concerned about Albertans' recent backlash against too much development and believes the government needs to be more engaged so the province's main industry can achieve its aggressive growth plans.
In terms of oil pipelines alone, companies are planning to invest $20-billion between now and 2014 to transport oil from the oilsands to U.S. markets.
‘Iraqi oil law won’t allow foreign control’
Iraq’s pending new oil law does not mention production-sharing contracts and will guarantee that 80 percent of oil reserves are managed by the Iraqi National Oil Company, the oil minister said in remarks published on Friday.
“There is no mention of production-sharing contracts,” Hussain al-Shahristani told the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat.
The state-owned Iraqi National Oil Company would control all fields other than those that are not now in production and which are a long way from production, he added.
The first integrated liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) terminal at Port Qasim was inaugurated by President Gen Pervez Musharraf on Friday.
This terminal is the largest LPG infrastructure project in Pakistan with an investment worth $50 million and built by SNC Lavalin.
Malaysia, Indonesia take to Europe to defend palm oil
Malaysia and Indonesia said they will meet European lawmakers to debunk accusations oil palm plantations are environmentally destructive -- claims they said are hurting the sector.
Turkmenistan: Multiple Gas Pipelines Still Possible
The agreement reached by the presidents of Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan earlier this month to build a gas pipeline from the Caspian shore to Russia has been hailed by the international media as a Russian victory over the West.
The excitement generated by the trilateral deal, which presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia, Kazakstan's Nursultan Nazarbaev and Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov of Turkmenistan signed at a May 12 summit in the Caspian port of Turkmenbashi, stems from the belief that this agreement puts paid to a projected alternative route, the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, TCGP.
The European Union has been lobbying for the TCGP, which would be laid under the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and would not go through Russian territory.
Iranian, Europeans Meet on Nuclear Issue
With the threat of new U.N. sanctions looming, senior European officials met Friday with a ranking envoy from Iran in what officials described as an attempt to defuse the crisis over the Islamic republic's refusal to scrap uranium enrichment.
Pentagon says China expanding military reach
China's ongoing military buildup remains focused on preventing Taiwan's independence but is expanding to include other regional military goals, including securing the flow of oil from overseas, according to an annual Pentagon study issued Friday.



Fuel Economy Somewhat Important to only half of US New Car Buyers
Most Americans want a car with better fuel economy, but only about half say they would be willing to sacrifice size or performance to get it, according to a national survey conducted by Consumer Reports.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/070524/052407_cr_mpg_survey.html?.v=5&.pf=loan...
Hard to Have Best Hopes,
Alan
I stuck that one in Drumbeat after you posted it. I am just sort of working my way through ad hoc and adding stories as I run across them (while I have a few minutes).
Great minds think alike ! :-)
But so do mediocre minds,
Alan
Robert, I (and others, I'm sure) really appreciate your generosity in doing the Drumbeat in Leanan's well deserved absence. I know it is time consuming, but it is so useful to find all this info on TOD every day.
Two Responses
Response #1
Dear Alan,
Although U.S. gasoline usage is inelastic at this time, sustained higher prices or a spike due to market tightness will turn this trend around. Perhaps prices in the $4.00/gallon range will do the trick. Time will cure the problem.
best hopes,
Dave
Response #2
Dear Alan,
When this American idiot juggernaut jumps off the peak oil cliff, they will take me and my loved ones with them. It is at times like this that I am forcefully reminded that I have a very low opinion of Homo Sapiens generally (present company excepted) and of our prospects as a species.
no hopes,
Dave
Best hopes for no hopes, (response #2).
Present company excepted of course.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/china/story/0,,2088589,00.html
Even in the context of "larger issues" looming about this one sucks. It is yet another reason why we, as a family, do as much as we can to simply NOT buy Chinese-made goods. This includes toys, clothing, shoes, foods, etc. It's amazing that a country like China, with as large a military presence throughout their populated provinces can't police this and other issues. Write an article critical of the local party head and you'll likely be before a judge quickly, and often with horrific results.
Our boycott is not absolute, however I would estimate we've reduced our acquisition of Chinese-made goods by well over %90 compared to average American consumers. IMHO our government is nothing to be proud of (to say the absolute least), but that doesn't mean I will support other ham-fisted, oppressive regimes.
Poachers are scum of the earth...
Of course having just read back through my post two things come to mind; Peak Oil and Global Warming, both in different ways, will seal the deal on the loss of species worldwide. Secondly, I have food on my table; who am I to criticize some dirt-poor Asian family man trying to survive and feed his family.
/rant off
I really think you are on the right track. Buying locally makes even more sense the more I hear about the whacko stuff being found in food and products coming out of China. I heard something about antifreeze in toothpaste from China recently....
Here it is:
FDA to check toothpaste imports from China:
Officials inspecting shipments after reports of tainted products
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18841928/
I will definitely not eat anything that has wheat gluten in it after the pet food scare.
Watch this and you will feel a little better about our species.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUDIoN-_Hxs
Diesel provides better performance AND a third better economy. Too bad you Americans haven't figured it out.
If a fairy sprinkled magic fairy dust on the whole US fleet and tomorrow you all woke up driving diesels, The US would save something like 5m barrels of oil per day.
Some of us figured it out years ago...
Some, like the Sierra Club, are dead set against use of diesel in the US because it is much more difficult to reduce emissions. If I recall correctly the latest scheme involves something like injecting urea into the combustion chamber to reduce emissions. That requires a "fillup" of urea solution as well as diesel fuel. Not a bad solution for those of us who need to stop often to urinate.
The buzz is that in the 2008 MY, VW will bring back the diesels that will be 50-state clean and will pass emissions. Still waiting to hear details, but the rumors are that the smaller cars like Jetta & Rabbit won't need the urea thing.
Bring It On... Lets Roll
and it's the right color for evasion :)
The little stratified charge 1.5 and 1.6's routinely made 50-55 mpg w/o turbo. Still have one. Today's 1.2liter. 3cyl. and 3 l. per 100k is better than that. Do you think it'll ever show up in America?
We can do so much better feeding a little lower down on the fractioning tower. Thinking total emissions/mpg per passenger mile. Be interested if you hear more rumors.
I am aware of the 1.3l diesel (Lupo in the U.K., I guess), but we haven't seen them as of yet. I guess they think they won't sell enough of them as long as fuel is cheap, but in reality they needed to solve the emissions problem first, I suppose.
My Jetta has a 1.9l turbodiesel and gets about 50mpg. That's the only diesel engine configuration that VW sells in the U.S. (I suppose I could order parts from overseas and build a frankencar - don't laugh - I know people who have done things like this).
There are people at www.TDIClub.com who work to maximize fuel economy - one guy drove from Salt Lake City to Philadelphia, and got > 70mpg. He got stopped by the police for driving too slow however, so this wouldn't work for everyone. The guy who did this is a retired aeronautical engineer, and gave a talk about coefficients of drag and maximization of fuel economy.
My guess is that you could scale the Jetta back to a 1.6l engine and the car do just fine - just a little slower. For the 1.3l to work, you would probably need a lighter body like the Lupo.
Thanks for yor response. I bumped this topic ahead to today to allow more people to grind it through the hopper.
Hello Jjhman,
I am hoping that a small diesel scooter, trike, or motorcycle becomes available soon here in the US. A 250cc diesel should provide sufficient motive power and if beer is still cheap enough: no widespread problem generating sufficient urine for clean tailpipe emissions.
Of course: No drinking, then riding. Just motor to your local tavern for a 'fillup'. =)
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
The KLR Kawasaki's that are converted to diesel for the USMC are available if you look hard enough. Good fuel mileage, big tank, huge range.
Over 90 mpg at 55 mph and capable of 90 mph if needed, run on diesel, biodiesel or jet fuel.
http://www.dieselmotorcycles.com/military.htm#bike1
hi - SailDog
...can they "program" the refineries so to speak ,how much of a certain or particular distillate one wishes from the crude volum?
Diesel is taken from the heating-oil-segment, as petroleum is a complete different distillate - much lighter part.
To clarify - can they make diesel from petrol ?
OT. Maybe....
At a small town in western KY in the graveyard across the street from where
my mother lives, volunteers could be seen placing flags on the graves of veteran
soldiers. While this is going on all across our nation this Memorial Day weekend
let us take a moment to honor those who sacrificed so much so that we can
enjoy the life we have today.
In the coming years we will need to band together as a community and as a
nation to mitigate the coming catastrophe that we so often discuss here. We
can debate what should have or could have been done differently to have
averted the crisses that lies before us but the end result is the same. We are
here and what can we do now to lessen the severity of a reduction in energy
rescources?
Best hopes that our veteran men and women's sacrifices were not in vain.
rude
Had a little confusion between Veterans Day and Memorial Day.
According to what I found it seems that Memorial day was previously Decoration Day and started in 1865 to place decorations on the graves of Civil War soldiers.
Being reminded by Rude Crude that we should remember all our veterans I will remember on Monday to visit my hometown cemetery where some of my uncles who served in WWII are buried.
As I have mentioned before my father had 6 brothers and during WWII my father and 5 of his brothers were all in the war at the same time. The last brother served for 30 yrs in the Air Force and in all major conflicts since WWII. Retired to Germany and came back last year and died soon thereafter. Now only one of my fathers brothers remains and lives up the road from me. One was captured and imprisoned for 3 years by the Germans,one was being operated on as his battleship was shelling Saipan,one was in Tank Destroyers,another a tank commander. They were all good men but drank far too much as a result of that war. Some did not pass away well but yet they served and never once spoke of it. Not a word. Never.
Of all those men only me and my brother and one other son was born. Of those only I have a son,my brother never married and my son will never marry. From 7 men(and 7 aunts) it narrows down to only one who continues the line that will soon disappear(me) yet for those who did serve(as did I and my brother) I will bow at the graves and thank them for going in harms way for this country.
BTW in that same graveyard there are graves of Confederate soldiers as well. One next to my future gravesite. My gravesite is at the foot of my great great grandfather who came to this country in 1820. On his tombstone is an anchor crossed with anchor chain. He was once a sailor,,same as me.
I think I will be in good company.
God Bless America, even in this time of tribulation and woes
Airdale..Airdale is a navy slang word for those whose 'rates' are in Naval Aviation
rude crude & airdale
I understand that for a YES ...
Robert is far better qualified than me on this, but I think they have some latitude, but the fractions depend on the type of crude and it API.
I am not sure that is a relavant question though. Europe has been moving to diesel cars for years - now sales about 50% diesel, but the fleet is proably miuch less than that. They do not seem to have problems with how much petrol vs diesel is produced.
I don't know where you live, but this is not going to be an issue for the lifetime of any diesel car you buy or own now. PO will take it off the road long before any worries about insufficient diesel being avialable.
I run my diesel Golf (same as a Rabbit, but it is the latest version, which I do not think is available in the US). I run it on biodiesel, available at a discount of about 20c per litre to mineral diesel from a service station just up the road. Biodiesel is made from tallow mainly here. It gets about 50mpg around town and 60mpg in the country. Despite only having a 1.9 litre engine, it has more torque than a 3 litre GM petrol car (called Holden here). It performs well and is the "perfect" town car for a guy with three kids. It was cheap to buy and is cheap to run. PO will take all the SUV's off the road long before me! When we go on holiday I tow a trailer and the extra torque from the diesel engine handles it fine.
Halfway there is better than nowhere.
In my hometown of San Diego, I am seeing many more
Priuses suddenly---at least close to the UCSD campus.
Not coincdentally this has corresponded to an increase of production and drop of price. Today's newspaper ads show "$3000 OFF MSRP" for some new models.
Outside the wealthier La Jolla or university area, few new hybrids, but looking around at
the obviously new cars people are driving in general, I
actually am starting to see more efficient cars in general, and not quite as many gargantuan *new* SUV's. Most US branded cars (versus trucks) are rentals or likely former rentals. Few people buy new from Detroit here.
Plenty of new civics, camry's and small nissan's. I bet when the next corolla is out it will sell very well.
People still drive their older (2-10) year old SUV's and a few macho guys are still buying new big ass trucks.
I'll admit this isn't Texas.
I think a plug-in hybrid would sell remarkably well, no doubt made first in Japan, after Detroit claims it couldn't be done or will have no market.
The persistence of the high fuel prices might be starting to convince people that they're not going back down soon, or that it will be an "every damn summer" phenomenon now.
http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1258
AVinc (the third party testor) also testified to the California ARB that they have been testing the cells since last year -- so this was more than just a demo.
80 Employees
Several business Units
At least 5 personnel in senior management
And they are changing the world?
Company profile from yahoo!finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ALTI
Stock quote from yahoo!finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=alti
I'm puzzled by this vehicle. If you go to the Phoenix Motorcars website, it says that the battery pack has a capacity of 35 kWh and that the vehicle can go 100+ miles on a charge. 35 kWh is slightly less than the energy content of a gallon of gasoline. So, why don't we have 100 mpg gasoline cars right now? Is there some greater efficiency in an electric motor translating energy to vehicle motion? Or is it that the new technology of this car includes dramatic efficiencies that no other current car design has?
It relates to thermodynamic efficiency. Even though the Joules or KWH are the same, electrical energy can be converted to "shaft work", basically the energy that propels the car at >90% efficiency compared to the KWH in a gallon of gasoline which is converted to "shaft work" at an efficiency of 10-20% (typically).
Another way: Electrical energy is a far more usable form of energy than thermal-energy. They are equivalent from a First Law of Thermodynamics point of view (i.e. Law of conservation of energy) but NOT from a Second law of thermodynamics point of view.
------------
The above is just thermodynamics. I know nothing about ALTI claims.
Is there some greater efficiency in an electric motor translating energy to vehicle motion?
The simple answer, yes. The more complicated answer...electric motors translate somewhere in the neighborhood of 95% of the energy into useful work whereas internal combustion engines are on the order of 25 - 35%. ICE's lose energy in pumping losses, heat transfer, friction, adiabatic inefficiency, coolant and lubricant movement, etc. If you've got a manual, the next time you're out taking a drive, as you're going down the road take your foot off the gas...that deceleration you feel is what you're compensating for all the time - just to keep the engine going. The little bit of energy left after overcoming the resistance of the engine is what's propelling the vehicle. It's pretty sick to think about once you realize it.
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/17328.shtml
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml
Someplace (wikipedia?) I read that the power delivered to the wheels from a gallon of gasoline is about 9kWH. So a 35kWH battery is roughly equivalent to three gallons of gas. You have to be very careful with these sorts of calculations. The people who make the statements about capacity are probably being truthful and accurate, but it makes a huge difference depending on where the capacity is stored. For example, a 35kWH battery might not supply 35kWH. That is a rating of capacity. It might make good sense only to use it from the 10% to 90% capacity levels resulting in about 28kWH actual energy used.
The power delivered may be 9kWh, but that's just because of the inefficiency of the heat engine. Hindela is correct in that a 35kWh battery is less than a gallon of gasoline. Most EV's get on the order of 100+ miles per gallon of gas-equivalent. The electric motor is truly that much more efficient.
Thank you for all the responses. I see now why a battery driven car is more efficient than a gasoline car. I guess the ultimate comparison would be to take into account the inefficiencies in generating the electricity used to charge the car's battery. Best would probably be to charge it from solar panels or maybe a fuel cell generator.
I made this post the other day