DrumBeat: May 31, 2007

George Monbiot: What if the Oil Runs Out?

Motorised transport is a form of time travel. We mine the compressed time of other eras - the infinitisimal rain of plankton onto the ocean floor, the settlement of trees in anoxic swamps - and use it to accelerate through our own. Every tank of fuel contains thousands of years of accretions. Our future depends on the expectation that the past will never be exhausted.

One Crude Oil Languishes, Another Spikes

Oil prices have held comfortably below $70 a barrel so far this year _ or have they?

The benchmark oil in the U.S. on the New York Mercantile Exchange has lost some status to other grades of crude, analysts say, as supply issues at home have depressed its price relative to competitor crude oils. Brent crude, for example, topped $71 a barrel last week.


Alternative Fuel Vehicles Will Be Tough Sell, But Policy Incentives Will Widen Use

Imagine a vehicle that runs on hydrogen or biofuels and offers the same features, performance and price as today's gasoline vehicle. Will it capture half the market? Not likely, concludes a new MIT analysis of the challenges behind introducing alternative-fuel vehicles to the marketplace. Not even if it's three times more fuel-efficient.


The Perils of Pushing Atomic Energy as the Climate Change Panacea

Is nuclear power on the verge of a renaissance? Its supporters argue that atomic energy is the only way to satisfy humanity's hunger for more energy without aggravating the effects of global warming. Critics, however, regard the nuclear hype as over-simplistic optimism fueled by an industry in distress.


Terraform: Building a house out of living trees

Want a treehouse? A New York architect is taking orders for buildings constructed out of—and by—living trees. Mitchell Joachim developed the Fab Tree Hab with some colleagues while at MIT, but now he's gone past the conceptual stage with his nonprofit, Terreform.


EU, OPEC See World Still Hooked on Oil

Oil will remain the world's major energy source, despite Europe's recent efforts to shift toward renewable energy, the European Union and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday.

Despite EU moves to widen the types of energy it depends on and where it comes from, both said they expected no major change to global reliance on oil, and said there was still enough to meet demand.


Shell Shuts in Production at Bonny Light Terminal Due to Attacks

Oil prices rebounded slightly on news of further militant attacks in key producer Nigeria, after falling sharply yesterday.

Shell announced today that 150,000 bpd of crude oil production has been locked in at its Bonny Light terminal in Nigeria after pipelines were sabotaged.


Mideast firm makes move into Alberta's oil patch

In a startling reversal of history, a Middle Eastern energy company is pushing into the Canadian oil and gas market looking for secure supplies, and, thanks to a battle with activist shareholders on this continent, it may be getting a good deal in the process.


Uganda, Congo Border Spat Could Hurt Oil Exploration

A border dispute between Congo and Uganda over the River Semuliki Valley could disrupt oil exploration activities in the Lake Albert Basin, a government official told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.


Sinopec shares jump 9.7 per cent on news of oil find in northwestern China

Shares of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. jumped 9.7 per cent Thursday, a day after its parent company said Sinopec had found more crude oil in northwestern China.


Weekly Offshore Rig Review: Angola Activity Accelerates

There is never a lack of activity off Angola, it seems. Both Total and BP announced discoveries on Blocks 31 and 32 recently. Total announced its tenth and eleventh oil discoveries on Block 32 and BP announced its fourteenth discovery on Block 31.


Oil refinery boom skips U.S.

Investment shifts overseas; domestic community resistance and regulations blamed.


US motor gasoline demand remains resilient

While US retail motor gasoline prices climbed to new record highs last week, US motor gasoline demand reached 9.4 million b/d, 1 percent higher than year-ago levels.


Oil-shale effort focused on tech

The last effort to exploit the vast oil-shale fields in western Colorado and eastern Utah foundered in the 1980s after crude prices tumbled 72 percent.

But today, in the high desert near Rifle, workers from the major oil companies are back, trying to develop breakthrough technology that would allow oil to be extracted from the rock.


BP inks largest exploration commitment in Libya

'This is a welcome return to the country for BP after more than 30 years and represents a significant opportunity for both BP and Libya' said Tony Hayward, BP group chief executive. The acreage awarded is the size of Kuwait.


Was Iraq invaded to boost oil prices? Value of Exxon reserves rose by $666bn

Iraq was invaded in order to limit its oil production and thus keep world oil prices artificially high, a noted investigative journalist reports.

"Iraq's output in 2003, 2004, and 2005 was less than produced under the restrictive oil-for-food program," writes Greg Palast in his new book Armed Madhouse (Plume). Oil-for-food allowed Iraq to sell 2 million barrels per day during the 1995 to 2003 period.


Who Owns the Wind?

With a growing number of wind power stations in Germany, a new kind of legal case is rearing its ugly head. The crime: stealing wind.


Air-Car Ready for Mass Production

The world's first commercial compressed air-powered vehicle is rolling towards the production line. The Air Car, developed by ex-Formula One engineer Guy Nègre, will be built by India's largest automaker, Tata Motors.


Energy Efficiency Investments And Renewable Energy Purchases Together Are "Twin Pillars" In Reducing Carbon Emissions

Funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the report examines key synergies between efficiency and renewables, including:

● On hot summer afternoons, efficiency can help reduce peak loads while solar and wind systems can operate at high outputs, reducing the use of high-cost, high-emission peaking generation.

● Where options for renewable sources currently are limited, such as in the Southeast U.S., the emphasis on efficiency should be multiplied.


China to allow foreign investment in nuclear power plants - report

China is expected to allow foreign and private domestic companies to invest in nuclear power plants, the official China Securities Journal reported, citing an official from the country's Commission of Science Technology and Industry For National Defense (COSTIND.)


The Misconception About Oil

If access to oil field data were available, then I think we would already have an exact date for peak oil. Unfortunately, major players like Saudi Arabia refuse to disclose that information.

Also, the competition between oil producers has led to suspicious increases in oil reserves. Looking at the chart below you just want to scream one word . . .


Interview with Thomas Homer-Dixon (podcast)

KMO talks with Thomas Homer-Dixon, author of The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization about the fragility of out vast centralized systems, the need for resiliency & diversity, and the possibilities for renewal and reinvention which only present themselves in historical moments of disintegration and collapse.


Energy wisdom is knowing that you do not know

The great Victorian economist, Stanley Jevons, published an exhaustive study of the coal industry in 1865. An exemplary exercise in applied economics, comprehensive in its analysis of supply and demand, geology and technology, it proved influential. William Gladstone, then chancellor of the exchequer, devoted much of his Budget speech to praising Jevons's achievement and implementing his recommendations.


Russia to Cut Natural Gas Production Amid Warm Weather

Unusually warm weather this year has forced Russian natural gas producers to lower 2007 production targets by billions of cubic meters, gas industry leaders said after a meeting Wednesday.


Because we're worth it

The baby-boomers’ culture of hedonistic consumerism has left their offspring with the crumbs from their table. And 65% of them say their children’s lives will be worse than their own. But are they bothered?


Going West in China

Every road throughout the nation is being refinished with concrete. From highways to one lane roads that were formerly dirt, nearly every road in every province is being up graded to allow movement of goods and people at a faster pace. This would account for the usage of 45% of the worlds cement year upon year. This is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.5% (or 90 million metric tons) during the 2006-2007 period.


The winds of public opinion: Turbines in Brome-Missisquoi

A proposed plan for a wind farm at the western end of Brome-Missisquoi has been modified, but the community remains divided on whether it should exist at all.


Minerals Management Service Marks Hurricane Season 2007

In preparation for Hurricane Season 2007, which begins June 1, the U.S. Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service (MMS) announced operational and administrative improvements that have been implemented to prepare oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico for the possibility of hurricanes this season. Key goals of the enhancements are to promote the nation's energy security, environmental protection and personnel safety.


Iraq to Set Up National Oil Firm

The Iraqi parliament will vote in weeks on founding the state-owned National Iraqi Oil Company, former Iraqi Oil Minister said on Tuesday.


Internet to Aid Global Power Crisis

KLG Systel Limited, a US $100 million company, based out of Gurgaon, has launched a worldwide revolutionary intelligent network, www.connectgaia.com, which according to company sources, is India's answer to the global energy crisis.


Pain at the Persian Pump

This Tuesday, western news outlets reported the beginning of gasoline rationing in Iran with terse certainty. But the view from Iran is much more complicated, and shows the disarray of oil refining operations in the world's number-three oil producer.


New energy department not brightest solution

The House Science Committee approved a bill last week that would create a new Department of Energy research branch, modeled after the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, that would focus on energy-technology breakthroughs instead of weapons.

It’s a terrible idea.


Energy Minister: Big Australian Oil Finds May Become Rare

Significant oil discoveries in Australia are likely to become rare in coming years, the country's resources minister said Wednesday, although he expects upstream companies to keep drilling.


Gas prices drive change for area folks

Wahoo Chamber of Commerce and Economic Development Director Doug Watts said that this would not be the case for everyone. While he said most people probably followed through with their Memorial Day Weekend plans, trips scheduled for later in the summer might not fair so well.

"I could see people cutting back on long vacations if they're driving," he said.


The false hope of a biofuel free lunch

The problem is that policy-makers have forgotten the basic biophysical facts behind the energy in biofuels. Through the miracle of photosynthesis, plants are able to convert the energy of sunlight into chemicals containing energy that can be made useful for humans. Indeed, this amazing process is the source of all the energy in oil, coal and natural gas. However, the wonder of that process does not mean it is sensible to grow corn or other crops and convert that biomass into ethanol to burn in place of gasoline.


White water torrent to die as nation gambles on huge Nile dam project: Climate change fears dampen hopes of power from tourist attraction

Six miles north of Lake Victoria, the Nile awakens, exploding into a cauldron of white water known as the Bujagali Falls. Offering some of the world's most spectacular rafting, it is one of Uganda's top attractions. Soon it will be destroyed.

After 13 years of seeing plans delayed by corruption allegations, financial strife, obdurate spirits and opposition from environmental groups, Uganda last week authorised an international consortium to begin a 30-metre-high dam across the Nile just below Bujagali Falls.


Oil traders prepare for bumpy DME ride

The launch of Middle East crude futures may herald a more transparent Asian oil market but before that, physical traders are bracing for a period of uncertainty, prompting them to continue trading under the existing system.


Saudi Electricity says has Aramco support

Saudi Electricity said on Wednesday it was getting the support it required from Aramco, in response to a report that the utility needed the oil firm's help to avoid a repetition of last year's power cuts.


Keeping the Lights On in Europe: Brussels bank hopes on technology and open markets


Pooling rides an option to combat gas prices

Much like the frog sitting in a pot of water slowly coming to a boil, commuters facing increasing gas prices haven't leaped from their sport utility vehicles and trucks.


10 Years After: Solar-powered vision keeps home off the grid

Perched atop a wooded hillside overlooking a canyon of redwoods, Bob Stayton and Mary Tsalis have created a sun-powered paradise.


Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: Preparing For Depletion

Unaffordable gasoline will affect each of us differently depending on how dependent we are on our automobile and what our alternatives are. In the U.S. we have something on the order of 210 million cars and light trucks in service and, even if the resources are available to replace a fleet of this size, it will be many decades before they can be replaced with vehicles that use little or no gasoline. Worldwide, the situation is even worse.


A Call To Lower the Speed Limit to 55

Fifty-five! Now there's a number that used to unite the United States. Coast to coast the law of the land was fifty-five miles an hour. Just as patriotic Americans worked together and planted victory gardens to fight food shortages during WWII, in the 1970s, with help from the insightful policies of an enlightened congress, Americans responded to the OPEC energy embargo with character and resolve. We reduced our consumption of petroleum.


South Korean consortium finds huge oil deposit in Russia

A South Korean energy development consortium said today that it has confirmed the existence of a huge offshore oil deposit in Russia's Kamchatka region.


Dennis J. Kucinich: It's All About Oil

The Iraqi "Hydrocarbon Law" is an issue of critical importance, but has been seriously mischaracterized and I want to provide the House of Representatives the facts and evidence to support the concerns I have expressed.


What's behind the 'perfect storm' of rising gas prices?

As gasoline prices surge past the $3-a-gallon mark, it's tempting to blame "Big Oil" for "price-gouging," the idea being this is all part of a conspiracy to control oil supply.

Price-gouging? Perhaps, and indirectly. I'll touch on that later.


Scientists warn on biofuels as palm oil price jumps

Biofuels are likely to speed up global warming as they are encouraging farmers to burn tropical forests that have absorbed a large portion of greenhouse gases, climate scientists warned.


4 American hostages released in Nigeria

Four American oil workers abducted three weeks ago in Nigeria's restive oil region were released Wednesday.

As journalists looked on, a judge who mediated in the matter escorted the four men to the governor's office in southern Rivers State and turned them over to authorities. U.S. Embassy officials weren't immediately available for comment.


Everest ice forest melting due to global warming, says Greenpeace

One of the world's most spectacular ice formations - the towering serac forest near Mount Everest's base camp - is rapidly shrinking as a result of global warming, Greenpeace said today.

Before and after photographs released by the environmental group show how the past 40 years of climate change are transforming the Himalayan landscape as ancient glaciers melt and retreat higher up the slopes.


Global warming heats up White House race

The 2008 White House race is bringing American global warming politics in from the cold, as candidates churn out complex plans on an increasingly key campaign issue.


US-Russia clashes sour G8 meeting

A clash between the United States and Russia over a proposed missile shield overshadowed a meeting of G8 foreign ministers Wednesday also marred by differences over climate change and Kosovo.


Exxon Mobil chief cools global-warming dissent

Global warming was a hot topic at the Exxon Mobil Corp. annual meeting Wednesday, but Chief Executive Rex Tillerson continued his effort to cool some of the criticisms of the oil-industry giant.


Earth nears tipping point on climate change: A rise of 1 degree Celsius could be enough to trigger 'dangerous' warming, scientists warn.

Dangerous climate change has not yet arrived, but the tipping point may not be far off. And it may be reached with a smaller temperature rise than recent studies suggest.

Welcome back! I missed your postings. I hope you enjoyed your time off.
D

Thanks!

I was actually back yesterday, though. I put up the DrumBeat, they just hadn't deactivated the ThreadBot yet. :-)

Welcome back, Leanan! We missed you. Robert and Stoneleigh filled in heroically though.

Population has been a topic before, and now it seems the rural Chinese are rioting over the one child policy:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/china_village_protest;_ylt=AjlWV5C9zr0SEhIZSw...

It's obvious that population control wouldn't work in a democratic environment. Looks like it might not work anywhere for that matter, at least in the long run.

I read the article, but I'm still confused. It said the riots were over a reduction in fines for violating the one-child rule?

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

Well, thanks to the one-child policy in combination with the desire to have male children, there are a lot more males than femals in the country. Unless there is sharing of wives, the inability to hook up with a girl would certainly inhibit your ability to have children. If they keep it up, there might end up being a substantial population drop in China.

Here in the US for instance, population wouldn't be growing if it wasn't for immigration. That 1.X-2 children that each couple has.. lol

"Here in the US for instance, population wouldn't be growing if it wasn't for immigration. That 1.X-2 children that each couple has.."

US population would still be growing without immigration, just slower than it is now. TFR would probably be around 1.8 without the level of immigration we have had since the early 90s (extrapolating the downward TFR trend at that point), as opposed to 2.09 in 2006, which is still nominally at 'replacement' level.

I don't think it would be growing. If it were, it would be barely growing.

Immigrants have larger families for several generations after they arrive. That's what has kept our population growth rate up, as much as the actual first-generation immigrants.

But look at what they rioted over:

The latest riots erupted Tuesday in rural parts of the southern region of Guangxi, apparently in the mistaken belief that the government was reducing its fines for violating family size limits, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

(Emphasis mine.)

They were upset because they thought the government was lowering the fine for having extra kids.

That's amazing, protesting the lowering of a fine. It must be that children are viewed like pollution. I could see protests here if fines for dumping toxins in the rivers was lowered.

Or...it could be that they paid the higher fine, and are upset that others won't have to.

Or... that the poor people who wouldn't even be able to afford the lower fine don't want to the rich to get off easy, and to have their own One kid swamped by a bunch of rich kids because their parents could pay the reduced fine.

Or...it could be that they paid the higher fine, and are upset that others won't have to

You are correct.

See http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK95542.htm

Never believe the MSM! ;)

I believe that the riots occurred when the people realized that the fines were not, in fact, going to be lowered. The 'mistaken belief' got their hopes up, and they rioted when they were told they were mistaken...

CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery

The reason was that they weren't reducing the fines enough:

In the latest case, the catalyst was a purported government document said that fines for having a second child would be reduced to a few dollars from the current minimum of $1,300.

Bah, population won't be a problem soon enough.
http://www.emergencyemail.org/newsemergency/anmviewer.asp?a=197&z=1
DR. JULIE DR. GERBERDING, DIRECTOR, CDC: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for this press conference. I'm here today to describe a situation that has involved many public health officials from around the world who acted together to protect people's health in a circumstance where an individual with drug resistant tuberculosis may have served as a source of exposure.

It's obvious that population control wouldn't work in a democratic environment.

Studying the situation and coming to this realisation is what turned Jay Hanson into a doomer. It is possible for humans to come up with solutions, but the imperatives our species have grown up with have made this very unlikely.

On the topic of gas prices, the self styled conservative commentator that comes on CNN mid-evening (Beck, I think his name is) went on a large rant about how we have to do something, a "moon shot effort" to reduce dependency, that some people have technical solutions, that politics and congress are blocking it etc etc (he promised more on that this evening). Lots of awareness that demand is supposed to rise (he quoted the 120 mb/day figures that came up in the studies widely discussed on TOD). Lots of awareness that we are in an energy crisis of unprecedented proportion... ... not a word on the likely inability of the world oil industry to produce 120 md/day under any circumstances, and certainly none on the likelihood that 20 years from now we won't even see production at current levels.

Lots of apparent indulgence of fantasyland pseudoscience, but seemingly no awareness of the real issue, which is limitation of overall supply.

Maybe he just got all that from "supply side economics" which is another name for creating what you need out of nothing. Fiat Lux.

ciao,
Bruce

"DD"

As long he Catholic religion outlaws birth control there will be no controlled
lowering of the planets population!

DD

Ha! Italy has one of the lowest birthrates on the planet, and this right under the nose of 'Il Papa' in the Vatican. Now do you really think (stereotype alert) all those Italians are practicing abstinence?

No, they have an extremely high abortion rate -- they use it for birth control. Hard to imagine the logic that makes abortion less of a sin than birth control though.

If il papa would just tell the world to wrap that rascal it would make such a difference -- on a recent trip to Brazil, looking out from the airplane window at the endless sea of apartment blocks in Sao Paolo, that's all we could think to ourselves.

The above speech by Dennis J. Kucinich It's All About Oil ( http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0705/S00525.htm ) is an amazing read and an excellent review of the history of Iraqi oil and other countries participation in developing it.

It's worth the read, but unbelievable that I have only seen any news of it from a New Zealand media source.

It's all about oil, it's all about food, it's all about life. Or, perhaps lifestyle. Dennis is stating the obvious. Really, almost nobody believes that Iraq had nothing to do with oil. I would guess that a majority think it was mostly related to oil. Who is he trying to convince ?

Virtually all of my Republican Evangelical Christian friends and relatives say that the war is about bringing democracy to Iraq...they don't believe for a minute that the war is about selfish reasons because George W. Bush is not selfish, he is a good, good Christian.

Note, that is not my opinion.

Rick

George W. Bush and his cabal are criminals that belong behind bars. If there is a God he will surely burn in hell.

Leanan,

I think your website has been phished. I keep clicking on the comments link and it takes me to the Daily Kos instead.

Mose in Midland

In fact, one of our contributors is Jerome a Paris from dKos.

What makes you think that iof there is a God that there is a Hell. Pehaps He may send him back to earth to redeem himself.

The willful blindness of some people (not you, Rick) is astounding.

Why would anyone suppose that our legislators would read a proposed Iraqi law when they dont read proposed US laws...like the patriot act.

The Iraqi National Oil Company has stated that if this oil law is passed that they will go on strike and completely shut down production...so, that means another 17 bpd gone from the world market.

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=5931635

The last legal dump closed on Saturday.

As trash dumps filled up over the years, new places or ways to get rid of garbage were not found, largely because of local protests or protection by one politician or another. Years of postponing the problem finally caught up with Naples (and by bad luck just as the temperatures rose, creating as much stink as unsightliness).

Worth the read. Nasty stuff. Luckily we've got lots of places to dump our garbage. Don't think that's all that great though. Are we the most dispersed per capita nation on the planet with as much land as we have. We could be the world trash dump at some point. We're not squeexing 1.5Billion people into our borders.

My family lived in Naples from 1976-1979, and I graduated from high school there. I loved it. However, Naples always had a garbage problem - the garbage men would go on strike, and the stuff would pile up. One of our friends came up with a localized solution - he gift-wrapped his garbage, drove downtown with it and left his car unlocked. It was stolen 15 minutes later.

Genius!

I observed a spontaneous instance of that at a mall parking lot in Houston a few years ago. A woman was changing the diaper on a child and thoughtfully left the dirty disposable diaper in a department store shopping bag next to her car near the bus stop. A woman gets off a bus, grabs the bag and runs back on the bus! I've chucked about it for quite a while.

Nice to hear about another ten billion barrels off Kamchatka. The world can breathe easy for another three or four months. Four of these a year in perpetuity and there's nothing to worry about; well, as long as you remember to move to higher ground.

God may be on our side, but I suspect Manitou bats last.

Leanan, Its great to see you back! Nothing like a vacation to make us all appreciate the long hours and dedication that you put in on the site.
Theres an interesting article about a biodeisel refinery being put on Galveston Island. It's our first refinery, local powers-that-be have always preferred refineries across the bay. Chevron has a 22% interest in the project!
The article is in the May 30 edition of the Galveston Daily News, www.galvnews.com

Peak rare metals.

http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=19970311...

The dwindling supply of commonly used transition metals may
have an impact in areas not usually considered by the
general public to involve much chemistry.

The only good thing about this situation is it may spur serious recycling efforts as the rare earth metals make it worth it. Next we might see innovation in extracting metals from sea water. The trick here in my opinion is very high selectivity instead of brute force extraction methods.

One concept I have is a whale like sub that strains water through selective ion exchange membranes and works over the rifts in the deep oceans extracting rare metals from the rich plumes.