DrumBeat: August 1, 2007

Oil prices hit new all time record highs

Oil prices hit a new all time record high of 78.77 usd a barrel in New York after US government data showed a much larger than expected fall in US crude supplies as refiners cranked up motor fuel production.

The US Energy Information Administration said US crude stock fell by 6.5 mln barrels in the week to July 27. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial News were calling for falls of 750,000 barrels.

The rise came as refinery utilisation rates rose to 93.6 pct.

'The crude stock draw was huge, much larger than expected and refinery utilisation was up but didn't translate into much more gasoline stocks and that's what we need at this point,' said Summit Energy analyst Amanda Kurzendoerfer.

OPEC Posts Record 06 Oil Revenue; Lags Western Companies by Half

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries posted nominal record revenue of nearly $650 billion last year on high crude prices and increased oil production, although its sales were just half those of the top U.S. and European energy firms, the producer group said in a report released Tuesday.

But in an indication as to why it may be keeping a tight rope on future production capacity, the report showed OPEC's base of economically recoverable oil reserves last year was flat if new, higher estimates from troubled OPEC producer Venezuela are stripped out, the worst growth in this key metric in recent years.


There Are Dire Consequences To Continued 'Growthmania'

Earth's finite quantity of raw materials requires fossil fuels from processing to the finished products, and for plastics, petroleum provides the raw stock. Any radical transformation of the energy system in the 21st century will require a range of new technologies on a large scale using limited natural resources. For example, thin-film solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery-electric vehicles require rare metals — cobalt, gallium, germanium, indium, lead, lithium, nickel, ruthenium, etc.

As this materials run short, by 2017, “the radio ... the [cell phone, computer game and Blackberry], and the movies that we know, may just be passing fancies, and in time may go.”


Argentine Government Continues To Beat Down Fuel Pump Prices

Argentine fuel retailers have again pledged to drop any pump price increases following apparent government pressure in what is beginning to look like a game of price control "whack-a-mole."


Taiwan: Ministry tells state-run oil company to freeze gas prices

Drivers and motorcyclists can take a break from rising fuel prices, as the Ministry of Economic Affairs yesterday ordered state-run CPC Corp, Taiwan (CPC) to leave gasoline prices unchanged until an improved floating price mechanism is determined within two weeks.


Energy Bill Aids Expansion of Atomic Power

A one-sentence provision buried in the Senate’s recently passed energy bill, inserted without debate at the urging of the nuclear power industry, could make builders of new nuclear plants eligible for tens of billions of dollars in government loan guarantees.


America's nuclear revival

One thing I've learned on my 7,000 mile journey through America's nuclear past and present is that when you're driving around scouting for a power plant -- any kind of power plant -- first locate the high-voltage transmission lines. (If you stand directly under those lines, sometimes you can hear the electricity cackle and spatter like rain drops on the roof.)

Then check the lay of the land. Then follow the downward slope to the water. Could be a river you're looking for, could be a lake (natural or man-made). Could be the ocean. But here's the rule: No water, no steam; no steam, no power.


NRC agency has trouble tracking its guns

The agency tasked with sensitive investigations of the U.S. nuclear industry is having trouble keeping track of its guns, according to a new audit.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Office of Investigations was unable during a surprise inspection to produce 15 out of 17 firearms it listed as being stored at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Md. A third gun that was found at headquarters was listed as being stored in another office.


Let the Sun Shine In: Too much energy is wasted by converting it. We could cut energy use by as much as 30% in 10 years by removing some links from the energy chain

Sometimes the best solutions to the energy crisis are the simplest, and often they're right in front of our eyes. Consider the use of solar power to light a home. Even the most advanced photovoltaic solar panels convert just 20% of the available sunlight to electricity. The resulting direct current (DC) then must undergo conversion to alternating current (AC), losing another 20%. If that AC goes on to light an incandescent bulb, which is only 5% efficient, you end up using a fraction of 1% of the original sunlight as room light. (Even switching to compact florescent bulbs, which are 15% efficient, makes little difference in overall energy efficiency.) But if you were to simply leave sunlight as light—via proper skylights, window orientation, and louvers—nearly 80% of the light ends up as illumination.


Dr. Johann Wingard On Synthetic Fuels and Energy Crisis

I believe that the combination of electrified transport, bio-fuels and synfuels from coal and oil bearing minerals can eventually replace oil based fuels, which would last mankind for the next couple of centuries. I am a hydrogen skeptic, but research and development on fuel cells which use hydrogen bearing liquid fuels may provide the breakthrough, as phenomenal efficiencies are possible with fuel cells used in conjunction with unfired micro-turbines. I agree with physicist David Goodstein who said that fusion and shale oil are the energy sources of the future – “…and will always be.” Geophysicist Amos Nur of Stanford University believes that oil production will have to triple by 2060 just to cater for the world’s expanding population. Clearly that is not likely to happen, meaning that a huge conflict could be emerging during the next few decades.


$5.8 Billion More in Oil Revenues and a “New Geometry of Power” for Venezuela

Speaking from La Cabrerita in the state of Anzoátegui during his weekly program Aló Presidente, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced that Venezuela has recuperated US$5.8 billion annually through measures to introduce ‘oil sovereignty’ and elaborated on his vision for the “new geometry of power” in Venezuela.


Argentina: Changes to government energy policy unlikely despite crisis

Argentina is not expected to change its energy policies under a new Kirchner administration, sources said. As reported, the sovereign has been hit by the one-two punch of a lack of investment and governmental interference in the sector, coupled with abnormal weather patterns. The crisis has forced Argentina to cut 1200MW per day to industry from 4PM to 10PM in order to keep residential electric customers relatively unaffected by the crisis. 45% of gas demand cannot be satisfied during peak days, according to Ecolatina the consulting company founded by presidential candidate Roberto Lavagna.


Energy crisis at Turkey's doorstep

Officials say the spread of power cuts throughout the country is imminent given that the current energy production fails to meet overall public consumption. They warn power cuts will have catastrophic impacts on the country’s fragile economy.


The Philippines: Palace mulls crisis powers for Arroyo

The looming energy crisis brought about by the extended dry spell might push Malacañang to ask Congress to grant special powers to President Arroyo, ABS-CBN News reported Wednesday.


China’s Pursuit of Happiness

China today faces an immediate challenge: energy dependence. China was the eight largest importer of oil in 2000, fourth largest in 2003 after the United States, Japan and Germany and will most probably occupy second place before the end of this decade. Beijing recognizes the need for a cheap and consistent supply of energy for its continued economic growth. Hence, economic strategies are based on fulfillment of these energy needs with any other strategic advantage being treated as a by-product. China’s diplomacy revolves around the acquiring of energy assurances from resource rich countries regardless of the political, economical or security situation of the country. For this purpose, China has heavily invested its resources in Latin America, Central Asia and Africa.


Saudi Aramco Names Former Top Shell, Texaco Executives To Board

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world's biggest oil company by production and reserves, Wednesday said former Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) chairman Mark Moody-Stuart and James W. Kinnear, former president and chief executive of Texaco, are joining the company's board.


EU to Use 18% Cereals Crops by 2020 for Biofuel

Europe should by 2020 divert around 18 percent of its cereals harvests, mostly maize and soft wheat, into making biofuel to meet targets for feedstock use in transport fuels, a European Commission report said on Tuesday.


British Airways fined record £121m over fixed fuel surcharges

BRITISH Airways was today fined a record £121 million after it admitted colluding to fix the prices of fuel surcharges.


Just Drill Baby

Washington politicians have been telling us we are in an "energy crisis." But America's energy challenges are far more political than substantive, says Pete du Pont, chairman of the National Center for Policy Analysis and former governor of Delaware.


Lower gas prices state's reward for new habits?

California drivers are bucking a national trend by burning less fuel. The state Board of Equalization reported Tuesday that gas use fell by nearly 1 percent in April, the most recent month for which it has statistics. That's down by 101/2 million gallons from a year ago and follows four straight quarters where Californians have used less gas than they did during the same period the year before.


Paris Woos Cyclists as Free Bike Scheme Takes Off

The "Velib" -- short for "free bike" -- programme launched in Paris this month has been a runaway success for Mayor Bertrand Delanoe, allowing thousands of Parisians and visitors to leave their cars at home to pedal to work or to the shops.


Under the sun

A growing number of people are cooking with an abundant, clean power source: nuclear fusion - or, in other words, the sun. This summer, I became one of them. Using some scrap materials and plans I found online, I built a solar oven whose temperature gets up to 240 degrees. It bakes potatoes, roasts vegetables and slow-cooks meat - all while sitting on my front lawn on a sunny day.


Turmoil at Another Progressive College

Another progressive college is in a crisis. After the Western Association of Schools and Colleges placed the college on probation in July, some at New College of California, founded in 1971 and “committed to education in support of a just, sacred, and sustainable world,” are undertaking the process of upturning the entire leadership – with supporters seeing the shake-up as their best opportunity to save the San Francisco college.

“The administration at New College and specifically the president have been needing to go for a very long time,” said Richard Heinberg, who teaches in the Culture, Ecology and Sustainable Community Program.


Could the Moon help power Earth?

We all use fossil fuels in our everyday life, but experts say they will deplete in the next 50 to 100 years. This will throw us back into the Stone Age.

Scientists are now desperately looking for an effective solution. Solar or wind energy is not expected to be sufficient to run the planet. Nuclear energy produces excess radioactive wastes.

Now some scientists are taking a closer look at the moon and see a shining new opportunity.


Fuelhardy

We have placed ourselves in a position where we are relying on sources of oil the Emerging Trends Report (ETR) simply does not believe will be available in the quantities we will require in but a few years’ time. Increased global consumption and competition for available supply is running headlong into barriers erected by production constrictions and reinforced by resource nationalization and resource mercantilism.


Why oil is the enemy of democracy

The anti-war crowd is right. It is all about oil - although perhaps not in the way it means. Consider some of the current threats to global stability: Russia's contempt for international norms, Iran's nuclear ambitions, the massacres in Darfur, the descent of South America into Leftist authoritarianism. All these crises are oil-fuelled.

The six-fold rise in the price of a barrel, and the commensurate boost it has given to the petro-kleptocracies, is the central fact of our age. Russia is ceasing to be a democracy in any meaningful sense: opposition politicians are harassed, independent media closed, journalists murdered. Almost every contiguous state has felt the force of President Putin's oil diplomacy: Estonia, Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine and, above all, Georgia, which is being asphyxiated by a semi-official blockade. Nor does it stop there. Alexander Litvinenko, let us remember, was a British subject living under the Queen's peace. At best, his murder was an act of terrorism; at worst, an act of war. Yet Vladimir Putin calculates that he can mock us because, as his defence minister cheerfully puts it: "The West keeps buying our energy."


Big Oil: Looking Both Ways

I recently described the dangers posed by declining production at many of the world's major oil fields. Now, in the past quarter, virtually all the world's major public exploration and production companies -- including ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, and ConocoPhillips -- have reported lower crude oil production, based at least in part on "normal declines" in their fields. I continue to believe that this is a far bigger problem than most people recognize. It's also one of the reasons why respected energy seer T. Boone Pickens believes that, regardless of how rapidly world crude demand rises, global productive capacity may never materially exceed today's levels.


Extraordinary oil and non-oil revenues as of September

According to the Ministry of Finance, the Venezuelan Treasury as of September will begin receiving oil and non-oil additional revenues.

The oil industry as of September is expected to deliver extraordinary oil royalties. That month Venezuelan state oil giant Pdvsa is expected to complete royalty contributions estimated in this year's budget at USD 12.16 billion.


Pipeline Politics and Turkey

Daniel Yergin in his Price discusses Sir Winston Churchill’s dilemma while deciding a great transformation in British navy; using oil as the mean of fuel instead of coal just before the World War I. If we take this great change as a milestone, since then hydrocarbon resources and having control over them have become an important issue for the Western civilizations.

As the price of oil and consequently input costs are increasing, energy issue and finding new alternatives that would decrease the dependency to hydrocarbon resources have become more pronounced by the policy makers and nongovernmental circles. On the other hand, economists blamed Asia-Pacific countries because of their increasing demand; even some discussed the peak oil theories more enthusiastically.


Concerns Mount Over Nuclear Energy After Series of Scares

Irregularities at nuclear reactors in Germany and Japan in recent weeks have rekindled safety fears and raised tough questions about nuclear energy amid increasing environmental concerns.


Australia: Iemma dumps coal power plan

THE NSW Government has indicated it is willing to use gas for its next power station, moving away from coal for the first time.

The about-turn is the Government's first response to plans for a national carbon trading regime.


Shell Pumping $27B To Oilsands

In its first major move since privatizing Shell Canada Ltd., Royal Dutch Shell PLC said yesterday it will spend up to $27-billion to build the biggest oilsands upgrader yet.

The Anglo-Dutch oil major said in a regulatory filing that it wants to build Scotford 2 in the Fort Saskatchewan area near Edmonton, beside its existing Scotford 1, where a multi-billion-dollar expansion is now underway. It will join a dozen other upgraders proposed or under construction in the region. Shell's mammoth structure will process up to 400,000 barrels a day of bitumen from its Athasca project as well as from in-situ projects in other parts of the province.

The price tag, one of the biggest spending plans in the country, reflects the scale of the oilsands business in Alberta and its rising costs. It comes on the heels of Petro-Canada's announcement last month that it will spend with its partners as much $33.4-billion on its Fort Hills project, which involves a mine in Northern Alberta and upgrading fa


Oil: $100 a barrel - or $200?

Nine of the last ten serious downturns in the world economy followed a spike in the price of oil, and we are heading for another spike, with oil back up near the peak of $78.40 a gallon that it reached almost exactly a year ago. A record number of options contracts are now being sold that entitled customers to buy oil in the future at $100 a barrel. That tells you where the inside players think the price of oil is heading, since those options will only be of value if the price were actually above $100 a barrel.

The spike at $78.40 in July, 2006 didn't cause a recession, so why should this one? Indeed, why would even $100 a barrel cause a global economic crisis, given that one hundred US dollars today is only worth about the same in most other currencies as $78.40 was a year ago?


Flush with Orders, Oil Drillers Expand

With "easy oil" on land increasingly tapped out or in the grip of national oil companies, international oil companies and some national firms are scrambling to find the next big fields offshore. To do it, they have hired virtually all of the world's available rigs capable of drilling in water over 500 feet deep, at rapidly escalating prices. With new offshore provinces opening up everywhere from India to Brazil, producers are booking deepwater rigs years in advance.


Ethanol

Rolling Stone is usually pretty good about printing fairly accurate stories. I'd read other articles critical of the ethanol push, but never anything that grabbed me by the throat like this Rolling Stone article does. I don't claim to be an expert on the advantages and disadvantages of ethanol, but it seems to me like there must be an "other side of the story" to this.


Weather Forecasters Watching Two Systems in Atlantic

The busiest stretch of the hurricane season starts in August, and almost right on cue, two disturbances were lurking in the Atlantic, one of which developed into a depression Monday night.


As icecaps melt, Russia races for Arctic's resources

Call it the global warming sweepstakes.

As milder temperatures make exploration of the Arctic sea floor possible for the first time, Russia's biggest-ever research expedition to the region is steaming toward the immense scientific prestige of being the first to explore the seabed of the world's crown.


U.N. climate change meeting aims at rich countries

The first U.N. special session on climate change focused on the world's rich countries on Tuesday, as policy-makers urged long-standing polluters to shoulder much of the burden for cutting greenhouse gases.


Landmark Energy Policy Study Points the Way to U.S. Energy Future without Fossil Fuels or Nuclear Power

A new study concludes that the United States could eliminate almost all of its carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2050. It also concludes that it is possible to do so without the use of nuclear power.


U.N. rejects big Kyoto project in Equatorial Guinea

An emissions-cutting project in Equatorial Guinea has become by far the biggest yet to fail a United Nations approval process under the Kyoto Protocol on global warming.

The project was meant to reduce flaring by turning natural gas into methanol. It failed to demonstrate that its proposed emissions cuts would not have happened anyway, regardless of Kyoto incentives.

This is the twenty-sixth project to be rejected so far.

I posted at Peakoil.com about PC Speech Software, which I find invaluable, especially for blogs such as TOD. Thought it might also be of use/interest to some here; with a program like ReadPlease you can weed your garden or build your bunker while listening to yack about URR, housing bubbles, and all the other fascinating chat that goes on here.

Wish it knew how to pronounce words like "wind" in their noun sense though. Voice is a bit more mechanical than your average movie robot or government bureaucrat, too. Can't have everything.

Congrats again to Robert for his mention in the Rolling Stone ethanol debunking. Pretty good rag for political coverage. A few years back I also came across an excerpt for a book called the Long Emergency that really grabbed me.

Apple's Mac OS X has good built-in text to speech support as well.
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

The following comment on the ethanol story posted above (a response to Rolling Stone's expose) should bring a lump to everyone's throat here. If this is really our choice, then we are indeed screwed:

Posted by Jeff on Aug 1 2007 12:07AM - I’m sitting here in Iraq (Tall Afar) wondering what the heck is wrong with ethanol. Why is the American public being fed so much negative opinion on the first step in getting off big oil. I have a feeling I wouldn’t be here now if not for U.S. oil dependency. Our future energy will come of many sources and ethanol is just one of them and is a logical evolutionary step in moving away from our current dependency. By the way, we have the best farmers in the world, they can grow anything. Give ethanol a chance. Or stay hooked on big oil.........up to you......

I saw that comment just as I saw Robert mentioned in the article (Robert I think you are being just a bit optimistic with the land requirement for cellulosic ethanol).

It says something we already know...America is addicted to oil and would rather (currently) choose to starve in their cars than to deal with their problem of excessive demand. It also tels me that this soldier knows he will be stuck in Iraq for America's addiction.

As a nation we seem pre-disposed to choose between A and B. With us, against us. Democrat, Republican. Stay, Cut-and-run.

None of the Above.

Just can't ... seem ... to get ... through ... a ... summer ... without ... TOD =]

That's right TODers.. you're favorite ethanol protag has had about as much sun and surf as he can handle.

I will soon be back to torpedo this Rolling Stone garbage scow (along with all the other ships of ethanol bias found adrift in this summer's cesspool of the uninformed) with a piece I'm tentatviely calling:

The Top 10 Signs You're Reading an Ethanol Hit-Piece.

Can I get an AMEN!

This topic was discussed previously on the list.

If you try to convert the US to ethanol you might find there is not enough food in the world.

From the Earth Policy Institute:

"Converting the entire U.S. grain harvest to ethanol would satisfy only 16 percent of U.S. auto fuel needs."

I did not see comments at the end of the Rolling Stone article. Where was this comment posted ?

Thanks,

Alan

A suggestion for entertainment at the ASPO Conference

Tower of Power - There's Only So Much Oil in the Ground

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRNqleXEoFw&eurl=

Lyrics

There's only so much oil in the ground
Sooner or later there won't be much around
Tell that to your children while you're driving 'round downtown
That there's only so much oil in the ground

Can't cut loose without that juice
Can't cut loose without that juice
If we keep on like we're doing
Things for sure will not be cool
It's a fact we just ain't got sufficient fuel

There's only so much oil in the ground
Sooner or later there won't be none around
Alternate sources of power must be found
Cause there's only so much oil in the ground

There's only so much oil in the earth
It's a fact of life - for what it's worth
Something every little girl and boy should know from birth
That there's only so much oil in the earth

There's no excuse for our abuse
No excuse for our abuse
We hope that what we use
Will not exceed the oil supply
Soon enough the world will watch the wells run dry.

Talking Heads - Nothing But Flowers

Here we stand like an Adam and an Eve
Waterfalls, the Garden of Eden
Two fools in love so beautiful and strong
The birds in the trees are smiling upon them
From the age of the dinosaurs cars have run on gasoline
Where, where have they gone? Now, it's nothing but flowers

There was a factory, now there are mountains and rivers
You got it, you got it
We caught a rattlesnake, now we've got something for dinner
You got it, you got it
There was a shopping mall, now it's all covered with flowers
You got it, you got it
If this is paradise, I wish I had a lawnmower
You got it, you got it

Years ago I was an angry young man
I'd pretend that I was a building
Standing tall by the side of the road
I fell in love with a beautiful highway
This used to be real estate, now it's only fields and trees
Where, where is the town? Now, it's nothing but flowers
The highways and cars were sacrificed for agriculture
I thought that we'd start all over, but I guess I was wrong

Once there were parking lots, now it's a peaceful oasis
You got it, you got it
This was a Pizza Hut, now it's all covered with daisies
You got it, you got it
I miss the Honky Tonks, Dairy Queens and 7-Elevens
You got it, you got it
And as things fell apart, nobody payed much attention
You got it, you got it
I dream of cherry pies, candy bars and chocolate chip cookies
You got it, you got it
We used to microwave, now we just eat nuts and berries
You got it, you got it
This was a discount store, now it's turned into a cornfield
You got it, you got it
Don't leave me stranded here, I can't get used to this lifestyle

Man, once surrendering his reason, has no remaining guard against the absurdities the most monstrous, and like a ship without rudder, is the sport of every wind. -- Thomas Jefferson

The report from National Petroleum Council is drawing criticism. I don't know when the report came out, perhaps it has been discussed already here on TOD. But it was requested in 2005 by Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman. And I don't even have a link to the report itself. But I thought this criticism of the report was well worth reading anyhow.

Oil report is overly optimistic on foreign production increases

Simply stated, the report's key assumption is that the oil-producing nations of the Middle East will increase production to meet anticipated future demand. This actually is a dual assumption increasingly being called into question. The first part of the assumption is that Saudi Arabia and the other major producers in the Persian Gulf are willing to raise production to meet the needs of the consuming nations. And the second part of the assumption is that the claimed oil reserves of these countries are actually true and that they possess the capability to increase oil production significantly to meet future global demand.

It appears that a few oil industry analysts are starting to get the message because one stated that the NPC, with this report, has drilled “a dry hole”.

Ron Patterson

It leaked in early July, and was officially released July 18. It has been extensively discussed here and in the media. Search on NPC and a bunch of stuff should come up.

P.S. I think the "analyst" who called it a dry hole is ASPO.

From Darwinian above:

The first part of the assumption is that Saudi Arabia and the other major producers in the Persian Gulf are willing to raise production to meet the needs of the consuming nations.

Saudi Arabia willing to raise production? Hmmm...these are Aramco's scheduled crude projects until the end of 2010 from Aramco’s most recent project schedule, released in June 2007. Although this project schedule showed Khurais start-up on June 2009, a recent press release dated 25 July 2007, on Saudi Aramco’s website states that Khurais is “scheduled for the end of 2009”, which is assumed to be December 2009.

Aramco originally intended Shaybah to produce 1 mbd but their project schedule shows only 0.75 mbd peak plateau. Aramco claims Khurais will produce 1.2 mbd. If Shaybah's downgrade from 1 mbd to 0.75 mbd is any guide then Khurais will probably produce a maximum of 0.8 mbd. Matt Simmons Twilight in the Desert book, page 215,

It is puzzling to consider that Saudi Aramco would entertain spending $3 to $4 billion on Khurais, thinking that the field could produce as much as 800,000 barrels of oil a day. The odds of reaching that production goal must be relatively long.

Here is the updated list of Aramco's additional crude capacities by project until end 2010 (Manifa heavy crude is excluded from below as it is schedule for 2011)

Khursaniyah (including Abu Hadriyah, Fadhili)aka AFK
Capacity 500,000 bopd – Arab Light
December 2007 start

Nuayyim
Capacity 100,000 bopd – Arab Super Light
December 2008 start

Shaybah Expansion
Capacity 250,000 bopd – Arab Extra Light (total Shaybah capacity 750,000 bopd, not 1,000,000 bopd)
December 2008 start

Khurais (including Abu Jifan and Mazalij)
Capacity 1,200,000 bopd – Arab Light (maybe 800,000 bopd)
December 2009 (was June 2009)

Is December a lucky month for Aramco? Every project start up is now December.

Aramco’s crude production is now 8,600,000 bopd. The capacities of the projects above will probably be only just enough to offset natural production decline from their current production.

Recent news on the AFK (Khursaniyah) project from
http://www.energyintel.com/DocumentDetail.asp?document_id=208996
"State oil group Saudi Aramco has converted the largest engineering and construction contract for the Abu Hadriyah, Fadhili and... "

Anyone have a subscription to this site to get the rest of the article?

I have seen Simmons comment in print a number of times, but have never understood where he was coming from.

$5,000 per bbl at 800,000 bbls per day of long lived production -- high volume production at that -- is dirt cheap. Maybe by KSA standards this is a lot, but I have no question that if it only produces at one third the targeted rate, the KSA "royals" are either spoiled brats or will recognized that it was money well spent.

If Simmons point is 800,000 bbls per day isn't much in the big picture, I am still uncertain about what point he is trying to make. One percent of world production is nothing to scoff about.

If Simmons point is that he believes that this is the best the KSA can do, I understand that point. If this is the best the KSA can do as part of its short term package of new developments, a 12 or 15 million bbl per day sustained production rate at any time in the future is grossly implausible.

This article states that "Technip Announces Conversion of Khursaniyah Gas Plant Contract into Lumpsum Turnkey"

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news...

As the gas plant is to produce natural gas liquids (ethane, propane, butane), the article above says that "The plant is scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2008".

Another project delay. I will assume that Khursaniyah natural gas plant liquids will start production in April 2008, instead of Dec 2007, ramping up to peak production of 290,000 bpd NGPL. I assume that Khursaniyah oil production is still scheduled for Dec 2007.

One data point: I have seen a grand total of one honeybee this summer (Western MA). In previous years, they were probably our most prevalent pollinator. I'm wondering what the effect might be on the apple crop this fall.

I live in rural New Hampshire. Earlier this summer, my lawn was a mass of beautiful sweet white clover. Just walking across it smelled like honey. And not a single bee - usually it would be humming, and you'd be worried about being stung (I walk barefoot whenever possible).

Then, about 3 weeks ago, I saw a bee. Then another. Day by day, more bees. I'm not saying it's "normal", but it sure is encouraging - I was very worried for a while.

Interestingly enough, my apple trees are completely loaded with fruit this year - more than ever before. I suspect that we must have a lot of natural pollinators.

I should add, I've been stung twice in the past couple of weeks... hurts a bit for a moment, but very reassuring. :-)

I also live in NH, same thing here. But I've also noticed a dearth of hornets this year, too. I've been here five summers now, and every year, lotsa hornets. I reluctantly went out with a hornet bomb and hit some of the more "inconvenient" nests. I do have some this year, but I'd bet the population is down by over 50%.

Anyone notice/hear anything about this?

Here's the deal - people make a lot of money raising honeybees and moving them to agricultural areas to pollinate crops.

Hornets...well, you get the picture.

It's not that anyone actually gives a crap about the bees, most of the hue and cry is because bee-keepers and agribusiness were losing money.

A half hour with a wet/dry shop vac, hose positioned near the nest entrance, is a non-chemical way to eliminate a problem nest.

Question,

Do you put a specified level of water to drown them?
Do they get beaten to death into little wasp meatballs?
Do you have to fogger them inside it?

Just about any amount of water will do - you do need to be in "wet" mode

They just drown. No chemicals needed.

Just dump the whole mess out when finished.

Actually I think that apples and other orchards are pollenated by Blue Mason Bee or orchard bees. Simple tubes in a plastic bottle with no bottom will provide a home for them.

Do a google for 'Blue Mason Bee' or 'Orchard Bee' .

Like these.

http://www.masonbeehomes.com/

http://www.everythingabout.net/articles/biology/animals/arthropods/insec...

http://www.lifecyclesproject.ca/resources/downloads/home_for_bees.pdf

East Central Florida, no honey bees sighted this entire year. Only a handfull of carpenter (or boring) bees. Almost no dragonflies. Only a handfull of other bees. No large grasshoppers. Not a single lightning bug, and few mosquitoes. Since I walk about 3 1/2 miles several times per week through neighborhoods that have home lots covered with flowering plants, and I have been watching closely for bees since the die off was first reported, this is downright scary imo. I have heard nothing quoted in the local papers from the citrus growers nor the vegetable growers in Florida and that also seems a bit strange since they are a sizeable portion of the economy of Florida.

.Its been weird in Galveston too, no mosquitos, although its been very wet. I've seen a few lightening bugs, and the roaches seem to be thriving, at least the water bug/tree roach types that are living out doors.
Bob Ebersole

I became aware of the Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) after there were a couple of reports about the problem, such as this one in SCIENCE, 18 May 2007 316: 970-972 [DOI: 10.1126/science.316.5827.970].

I walk about twice a day with my dog and have been looking around for bees, etc. I've seen very few honey bees and almost no bumble bees. There also seems to be fewer butterflies, but that would be hard to quantify. while looking, I did see some bees that appeared to be sick, as in, unable to fly, buzzing away on the ground. I did notice some very small bees/wasps doing the pollination duty, so there are some critters still out there. The number of bees seems to be recovering a bit (I hope).

I thought it might be pesticides, since there are lots of tree farms in the area, but that's an easy target to shoot at. Since we had a hard freeze in April after a very warm March, the timing of the various plant/animal/insect interactions may have been messed up. We had a severe drought for a while too. What ever is the cause of the problem, without those honey bees, there may be a serious problem for agriculture.

E. Swanson

From Juan Cole's website (University of Michigan Professor):

http://www.juancole.com/2007/08/deadliest-july-yet-for-us-troops-23.html

Some in the Pentagon and in Israel have not given up on the hope of a Kirkuk-Haifa pipeline to bring Iraqi petroleum to Israel. (This is a link from: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=332835&contrassID=... )

This is Juan Cole:

Oh, yeah, like that is going to happen. First of all, the Iraqi government's position is that it is bound by Arab League strictures on trade with Israel. Second, Sunni Arab guerrillas would fill such a pipeline full of holes every hour of every day. Third, it almost certainly would not make economic sense even if it were possible politically. Talk about a pipe dream :-). You just worry that this crackpot idea was one of the motives for the Neoconservatives for the Iraq War. What a waste.

In the Gwynne Dyer column he says:

"A record number of options contracts are now being sold that entitled customers to buy oil in the future at $100 a barrel."

Can someone tell me who is buying futures at $100 a barrel and when are these dated?

I don't follow futures trading but had not heard anyone say anything about $100 oil. Is this a recent development?

The article speaks about options to buy oil at $100. The option gives you the right to buy the oil at this price at contract maturity, but not the obligation to do so.

The futures are different as they bound both the buyer and seller to commit the transaction at the given price at the contract date.

Thanks LevinK. I need to find a primer on options and futures trading and learn the basics.