DrumBeat: August 6, 2007
Posted by Leanan on August 6, 2007 - 9:02am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The world’s most respected journal of economics has now officially acknowledged the advent of peak oil, validating (finally!) what we’ve been saying for years.In a July 19 article, the venerable Economist cut straight to the point:
“The world is consuming more oil than it is producing.” --The Economist, July 14-20 print edition....Some observers such as Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Matthew Simmons, and James Howard Kunstler believe that because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on inexpensive oil, the post-peak production decline and possible resulting severe price increases will have negative implications for the global economy.
Talk about understatement!
Rising global oil prices are straining relations between economic policymakers in Beijing and the nation's largest state-owned oil and gas companies as long queues for gasoline begin forming around the country.
The World Economy is Doing Well with the Rise in Oil Prices
A number of economic declarations have been issued recently by major countries indicating that the world economy is performing well with high oil prices, without any increase in inflation accompanying the rise, unlike in the past.
The Idaho National Laboratory is at work on next generation reactors that promise to deliver more reliable energy.
Ukraine forgets about Chernobyl
The politicians, however, are not telling the whole story: the uranium problem is not quite so straightforward. What is surprising, though, is that the CANDU reactor, developed at the dawn of the nuclear energy era, is a "cousin" of the Chernobyl RBMK reactor that exploded 20 years ago. One would think Ukraine would have developed a distaste for anything associated with that past tragedy.
Businesses paid not to use power
When temperatures soared across Ontario this week, businesses like Magna, Royal Group, Canada's Wonderland and Lear Corp. in southern Ontario responded by cutting back on their power use.It was a responsible thing to do and helped the York Region's hydro service deal with the exceptional demands of near-record temperatures.
But the companies, along with others in a pool managed by Rodan Energy, got more than the satisfaction of doing their part for the community good. They got paid for not using electricity.
World's first carbon-free city
It may seem strange that the emirate of Abu Dhabi, one of the planet's largest suppliers of oil, is planning to build the world's first carbon-neutral city.But in fact, it makes a lot of financial sense. The 3.7-square-mile city, called Masdar, will cut its electricity bill by harnessing wind, solar, and geothermal energy, while a total ban on cars within city walls should reduce the long-term health costs associated with smog.
"Hybrid" doesn't mean just one thing. Cars and SUVs can be set up in different ways to meet different needs. Here's a look at the various systems.
National Express quits biofuel experiment
One of Britain's leading transport groups has cast doubt over the green credentials of biofuels after pulling out of a trial amid fears that it was doing more harm than good to the environment.National Express has suspended a biodiesel trial at its UK bus operations after consulting green groups. Biofuel tests have been used by transport companies to highlight their environmental friendliness, with Virgin Trains and Virgin Atlantic among the most high-profile backers of the alternative energy source.
Richard Bowker, National Express chief executive, said the coach, bus and rail group would continue to look at such initiatives, but its biofuel study underlined that "what appears to be the green option may not actually be green after all".
BP will no longer offer its fuel in North Dakota
Mike Rud, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Marketers Association, said it's a "huge loss" for the state."It's a sign of the times," Rud said. "If you don't have supply, you can't do your job. I think they saw the writing on the wall"
When Will the Next Bridge Collapse?
The US freeways got the miserable grade "D" from the ASCE. Around 332,000 kilometers of highways cross the US, most of them built in the 1950s. Hundreds of highways are maintained with the help of toll charges. Nevertheless bad road conditions, potholes, cracked asphalt and broken road surfaces cost US drivers a total of $54 billion each year -- $275 per motorist -- in terms of extra vehicle repairs and operating costs caused by driving on roads in need of repair....The ASCE's list of defects continues. The US's completely overloaded airports get a "D+" grade. The ramshackle drinking water system get the grade "D-" with the ASCE writing that "America faces a shortfall of $11 billion annually to replace aging facilities and comply with safe drinking water regulations." The electric power grid, which is "in urgent need of modernization," likewise gets a "D."
Blast in Bulgarian pipeline cuts supply
SOFIA, Bulgaria - An explosion ripped through a pipeline in Bulgaria on Monday, interrupting Russian gas supplies to Greece, authorities said. No injuries were reported.The most likely cause of the blast was a gas leak, said Angel Semerdjiev, general manager of Bulgartransgas, an affiliate of state-owned gas company Bulgargaz.
China Southern Power Grid June electricity sales to Vietnam up 320% year-on-year
State-owned China Southern Power Grid said it sold 268 mln kWh of electricity to Vietnam in June, up 320.34 pct year-on-year.China Southern Power realized sales revenue of 12.05 mln usd from Vietnam during the month, the company said in a statement.
India: Crude oil price rise matter of concern
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the surge in international oil prices is a matter of grave concern and it was for the Petroleum Ministry to take a call on retail pricing of petroleum products."Yes, rising crude prices is a matter of grave concern... it is entirely for the Ministry of Petroleum to propose that (an increase in domestic fuel prices) and seek a view on this," he told reporters here.
Pakistan: High fuel prices hit industrial consumers
The industrial consumers of the country are witnessing a significant increase in their cost of production due to skyrocketing prices of furnace oil in the global markets.
Thailand: No intervention in oil prices
Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand on Monday reiterated that Thailand's ministry would not intervene in the movement of oil prices, although that sector of the economy will continue to be volatile.He said the fluctuation in fuel prices is a normal phenomenon. The best way to supervise the prices, he advised, is to allow them to move in accord with market mechanisms.
South Africa: New Wage Offer As Fuel Panic Mounts
AS PETROL distributors worked around the clock at the weekend to avert a crippling fuel shortage, employers tabled a new offer that could end the strike tonight if it is accepted by striking union members.Petrol stations in Gauteng, where 60% of SA's fuel is sold, were hardest hit, but shortages have also been reported in Western and Eastern Cape. Stations in KwaZulu-Natal were also starting to feel the pinch yesterday.
Sri Lanka: Threats by private bus owners
Private bus owners have sought a permission from the government to increase the bus fares. they have warned the government that if permission is not granted before August 12th, they will suspend the bus services.They have explained that the increase in the bus fare is necessary to cope up with the increase in the fuel prices. As an alternative, they have sought some relief. It must be noted that the annual increase in the bus fare was only last month. Within a period of a month, they demand another increase in the bus fares.
Following reports that members of the outlawed Mungiki sect thrive in the slum by extorting money from residents in exchange for electricity supply, Kenya Power and Lighting Company sought the help of police in an operation that saw more than 100 persons arrested and charged with electricity-related offences.
Mexico, Brazil must co-operate on energy: Lula
Mexico and Brazil should co-operate in the development of technology for deep-sea oil and gas exploration and production, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said.
Need of the hour is cooperation
Opec has tried its very best to find a sort of balance in global oil markets. But these efforts are not enough, neither in providing the world with its oil needs or in decreasing global warming.The reasons behind this are several. The oil production rate has reached its maximum level for Opec countries, any increase in production will need huge investments. These oil producing countries do not need additional revenues currently.
By now, is there anyone over twelve in the USA who has not seen Jim Cramer's tantrum recorded late Friday afternoon on CNBC as the stock market took a 280 point swan dive off the rocky cliff of Hedge Fund Island? Cramer's histrionics were only a few clicks above his normal antics on the "Mad Money" show, but even so, they made a remarkable impression of someone in real, not mock, despair. He mentioned more than once during the tirade that he'd been on the phone all week with other interested parties who were begging him to do something about the rising bloodbath on Wall Street.
Iran Offers Aid to Nicaragua, in a Sign of Deepening Ties
Iran has promised to help finance a new $350 million ocean port and build 10,000 houses for the leftist Nicaraguan government, in a deepening of ties between the governments that has raised concern in the Bush administration.Iran has also pledged to choose in November a site for a $120 million hydroelectric project, to help Nicaragua overcome a power crisis, which has confronted Nicaraguans with blackouts nearly every day.
Therefore before any Act could be passed there is an immediate need for the Government to launch a campaign to prevail on the public the urgent need for energy conservation.In this regard the State institutions are the biggest offenders. One has only to walk into a Government Department to witness this laid back approach to the energy crisis, where fans rotate idly, lights burn randomly and power guzzling air conditioners function at full throttle in empty spaces.
South Africa: Fuels industry avoids windfall tax
The government will not proceed with plans for a tax on the windfall profits earned by synthetic fuel producers such as Sasol, South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel on Monday.He said the decision had been taken in the interest of a conducive environment for additional investments in domestic fuel security.
South Africa solar star in Germany
The electricity-producing panels are leading edge in terms of both the cost, reckoned to be about a quarter of existing technology, and efficiency.These panels convert considerably more -- in excess of 16% -- of the sun’s rays to electricity than current offerings. As one observer says, “in solar anything above 10% is considered pretty good”.
A New Front for Campus Activism: Energy Efficiency
The lights in Michael Siminovitch's office at the U.C. Davis California Lighting Technology Center dim in response to daylight entering through the windows. These special lights are just one way that Siminovitch, the center's director, believes the university can slash much of its energy demand.
Why 'peak oil' may soon pique your interest
For years, many in the oil industry viewed the peak oil forecasts by Simmons as odd. Now his position has a lot of company. Several websites publish sophisticated material on the issue. There's the Oil Drum (www.theoildrum.com), featuring "Prof. Goose" and "Gail the Actuary." Those pseudonyms hide a full professor at Colorado State University and an actuary in an Atlanta suburb. There's also the Energy Bulletin (www.energybulletin.net). The site's coeditor, Bart Anderson, say it receives 11,000 visits a day. Peak oil enthusiasts, he says, have now divided into a majority seeing life after an oil crunch and those he calls "doomers."In Britain, Douglas Low, director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (www.odac-info.org), foresees a "crisis coming up" with a real shortage of oil. In June, he notes, the world used 1.5 MB/D more crude than it produced. He expects much higher oil prices in the future.
"It's not a very happy message," he says. "A lot of people want to slip it under the carpet."
Sen. Barbara Boxer had been chair of the Senate's Environment Committee for less than a month when the verdict landed last February. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal," concluded a report by 600 scientists from governments, academia, green groups and businesses in 40 countries. Worse, there was now at least a 90 percent likelihood that the release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels is causing longer droughts, more flood-causing downpours and worse heat waves, way up from earlier studies. Those who doubt the reality of human-caused climate change have spent decades disputing that. But Boxer figured that with "the overwhelming science out there, the deniers' days were numbered." As she left a meeting with the head of the international climate panel, however, a staffer had some news for her. A conservative think tank long funded by ExxonMobil, she told Boxer, had offered scientists $10,000 to write articles undercutting the new report and the computer-based climate models it is based on. "I realized," says Boxer, "there was a movement behind this that just wasn't giving up."
Credit and growth fears hit stocks, dollar, oil
Fears of a global credit squeeze and jitters about U.S. economic strength swept across financial markets on Monday, shaking up stocks, knocking the dollar to a 15-year low and sending oil down more than $1.25 a barrel.
Opec July output rose 445,000 barrels, survey shows
Crude-oil production in July by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rose 445,000 barrels a day, led by gains in Iraq and Nigeria, a Bloomberg News survey showed.Output averaged 30.48mn barrels a day, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. It was the biggest gain since January, when Angola joined the producer group. Excluding Angola, it was the largest monthly rise since September 2004.
The Government of T&T has chosen tourism as one of the economic pillars for the country's diversification away from energy. So much so that we are creating in Trinidad waterfront hotels and a conference centre with the hope also of attracting the business tourist, and the more general kind to Tobago.These plans are consistent with current annual growth forecasts for tourism which, according to the UN Tourism Organisation, are 3.8 per cent for regional and 5.4 per cent for long haul traffic - i.e. by 2020 some 1.6 billion people will be involved in international travel. These figures unfortunately do not take into consideration the phenomenon of Peak Oil which is manifesting itself in escalating fuel prices due in general to reducing production and increasing demand for oil.
American company accused Lukoil of price collusion
Green Oil Company has charged Russian Lukoil, the second largest private oil Company worldwide by proven hydrocarbon reserves, and several other firms operating on the American market with price collusion aimed at overshooting of wholesale prices on oil products. Green Oil has filed a claim to the court demanding all U.S. subsidiaries of Lukoil to be sold.
Book Review: A Thousand Barrels a Second
In my opinion, Tertzakian can be classified as an Urgent Simonist.* The word "Urgent" is meant to distinguish from the "Pollyanna" Simonists -- those who believe technology will magically solve our energy problems with no real pain or discomfort.On the emotional subject of peak oil, there are two extremes of debate. At one end you have those who think civilization is doomed no matter what (the viewpoint of cheery websites like dieoff.org). At the other end, you have those who think peak oil will be shaken off like a mild head cold.
Tertzakian helps bridge the gap between these extremes by explaining that yes, the challenge is serious, and gut-wrenching times are ahead... but we will ultimately see our way through. He is "urgent" in pointing out that the sooner we act the better, and pulls no punches in terms of what's at stake.
Towns prepare for 'peak oil' point
In this month's Investigation programme on BBC Radio Scotland, Mark Stephen visits Totnes, one of a growing number of transition towns south of the border.



There's an excellent article in the August 5, business section of the Houston Chronicle about sorgum for biofuels and some new varieties being developed at Texas A&M. and also an article on Wind. WWW.chron.com
Bob Ebersole
Is there a more direct link available? I am having trouble finding the articles.
Chronicle:
Seeking a sorghum solution
Power plant projects proceed — with caution
Business Wire:
Gulf Ethanol Advances Plans Based on Texas A&M Sorghum Plant
Cool stuff. Combine that with A more efficient ways to process ethanol and I really think we have something.
Yeah.
Trouble.
If you say so. I for one think that biofuels technology is still in its infancy stages. Only in the past few years have companys and scientist really started looking at ways to make biofuels more efficient and practical.
Wow, all that biofuel noise from the 1970s during the last oil crisis didn't happen? All that research that led to nothing just didn't occur?
Whatever you say, scout. Keep whistling past the graveyard.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Oh right, I forgot there has been no advances in biotechnology since the 1970's!!!!! my bad!
Here are some links, if you want to learn more about it.
I posted this story, which sounded hopeful, here, last year:
http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2006/10/13/local/doc452eb9efc0fc6435...
And this, is from the National Sorghum Producers (includes some good articles):
http://www.sorghumgrowers.com/SORGHUM-to-Ethanol
The key here, IMO, is "Ethanol from sorghum can replace MTBE as an oxygenate in gasoline, providing a cleaner, safer environment." In other words, it is being used to fulfill the mandate, same as corn ethanol.
If you read about the process, they tend to gloss over the energy intensive logistical problems, requiring more research. EROI? It requires less rainfall than corn--that is good. Also, note that there are different types of sorghum discussed in these articles, short-grain sorghum, and taller sorghum being bred with little grain.
This is nothing new. It's been around for decades.
Seriously this is goddamn plant and corn are pure bullshit.
One bushel of A produces as much as one bushel of B.
woo! woo!!!! .... boo.
You are just replacing corn with corn-lite. If this plant required much less nitrogen, then i would be happy(moderately so).
but still this entire line of thinking is a zombie, the walking dead, it is supported by gov mandate, and could not survive on it's own. Brazils ethanol infrastructure only survives because of manual slave labour (boost the eroei) and the fact they can grow sugarcane!
EROI, EROI, why hast thou forsaken us?
The ethanol sacred cow needs to be tipped ... into a wood chipper. Its a big, fat scam that wastes time, money, and energy.
Biofuels? Great! Biofuels that can't even break even? Not so great.
Not until properly processed by the aforementioned bull....
(Sorry. Couldn't resist. Won't happen again.)
the underlying physics will never change, the plants have not gotten more efficient, and our understanding of fluid dynamics is still very poor.
we still cannot come close to the entropic minimum of energy expenditure for converting sunlight into ethanol (put another way, the theoretical maximum efficiency)
the only thing that has changed in biotechnology is our ability to rapidly do automatic genetic tests such as PCR and other magnification/purfication. tell me how this helps, or better yet offer some advances which address the issues, ie potential solutions or methods of attack to the navier-stokes equations? How to best scale up small reactors to ponds? how about HTSC(High Temperature Superconductors)? The only real progress has happened in materials science(carbon fiber), and solid state device manufacturing (PV).
Our understanding of practical fluid dynamics has gotten significantly better since the 1970's and reasonably good realistic numerical modeling is possible in some regimes thanks to intense, slogging, difficult development.
Most of those regimes relate to military-like things.
Jay Leno's Green Garage?
http://www.popularmechanics.com/greengarage
Yes, Jay is ever the comedian.
I guess one of the fringe bennies of having essentially unlimited $$$ is that it allows you to disconnect from reality.
Oil shortages, warns Simmons, could lead to war.
The prospect of oil shortages has already lead to war.
The Christian Science Monitor article that your quite is from is one of the few US main street media (MSM) reports that lays out the issue pretty clearly, without lots of "balance" from CERA and the like. I wonder if we will be seeing more of this in the future.
Agreed, the "could lead to war" quote doesn't quite present where we are, but it is still represents a big step for MSM.
Fascinating information in that article. I may have to become more acquainted with Colorado State University. :P
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
"The company decided it cannot meet its goal of supply reliability from the terminals where it ended supply agreements. Truly, North Dakota terminals have seen better days, with shortages being relatively frequent, at least in the beginning of this summer.
These terminals, such as the Jamestown and Fargo terminals, are not owned, operated or supplied by BP and are located on the edges of the company's core fuel areas."
This is how it begins. Remote areas see reductions in supply, shortages, eventually severe shortages, as the far ends of the supply chain are severed.
Yeah, I get the feeling it's not going to be good to be at the end of a pipeline or other supply chain.
And nothing bad has happened yet. No Hurricanes, Wars, etc. If this can happen to North Dakota now just wait until something really bad happens. There will be alot of North Dakota out there. And no light rail is going to save them.
B-P says it will stop selling its branded gasoline and diesel in North Dakota and three other states by mid-2008.
Anybody know what the other three states are???
BP plans withdrawal
Hello Korg,
With North Dakota and Minneapolis as US examples, along with numerous global examples, we should expect and plan for crumbling infrastructure of all types; the spiderwebs will inevitably shrink from entropic forces.
Hopefully, the ASPO Modeling Project in the other Keythread can accurately simulate the pace of decline so that it enables us to pre-emptively shutdown infrastructure with a minimum of deleterious effects.
This could prove very beneficial to avoid what I call the 'Zimbabwe Syndrome'. A brief example: If Mugabe understood that his country doesn't have the funds or energy [nor water from prolonged drought] to properly maintain the ill-positioned sewage plants, then he would have instituted early Humanure Recycling on a city-wide scale. This would have prevented the crumbling sewage plants from releasing the uncontrolled outflows into the city's freshwater reservoirs; making a bad situation much worse. Recall my earlier newslink posts on this subject.
Since there seems to be no desire for my massive energy saving dual-purpose SpiderWebRiding Proposal: I would like to see the US Southwest adopt a Humanure Strategy before the bad ramifications from crumbing infrastructure and continuing drought arise.
Please see my earlier speculative postings on how carefully directing gravity sewage flows to pre-identified, evacuated, and prepared neighborhoods before the spiderweb becomes non-functional can be a very energy-efficient method to jumpstart relocalized permaculture by this rapid topsoil rejuvenation method.
This should be much preferred to the alternatives of inhabited structures being flooded by crumbling infrastructure breakdown, or purposely set sewage valves to decimate a targeted neighborhood. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
A nice "I told you so" this morning.
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary21.html
Yes, Leanan linked to it above. This is Kunstler at his best. I just loved it.
Ron Patterson
Not an anti-kunstler rap - I usually enjoy his musings, though I frequently wish he'd clean up his language.
But - I thought his lead in demonstrated the danger of being too close to the subject you're writing on. CNBC? who cares what happens on CNBC? Anyone over twelve? As if the entire world waits with bated breath for what some talking head laments about wall street.
The truth is, most people don't pay any more than passing attention to what happens to the DJIA.
And peak oil followers would be wise to follow that lead. There is little connection between what goes on in the stock markets and the economy as a whole, even less when you move to longer term outlooks (i.e. more than 3 months out).
DJIA - Dow Jones Industrial (?) Average
That one may seem obvious to econ types, but took me a minute.. do please take a moment and clarify the acronyms.
Bob
Shaman,
You may want to look at the Great Crash of '29. At that time, the "real" economy had little to do with the stock markets. For some reason, and scratch my head and hope to know why, the "real" economy tanked with the stock market.
Right now, there are legions of market whisperers out there trying to soothe our jittery nerves, trying to convince the average investor to hang tight, to invest for the long term. Why? Because somebody has to be left holding the bag.
If anyone here believes that the underlying economy is just swell, I have a bridge in Minnesota I'd like to sell them.
As to language. Oh, if only our problems could be solved by the petty moralisms of the schoolmarm! If only we would quit that durned cussin'. Then we'd all be just hunky dory! Peachy keen!!
Swell.
Cherenkov,
I could just as well hold up your first paragraph as if it were a mirror and encourage you to do the same.
And then, to add insult to your historical misinterpretation you assume that because I discourage market watching that I automatically must be a Pollyanna.
Worse, you further assume that because I dislike someone's foul language that it makes me a petty moralist. What I really was objecting to was the degrading of the intellect that goes along with such usage. Any one can toss about "shock" words, but repeat them enough and they no longer shock, they dull the argument. So, if I suggest that you take your assumptions and naive misinterpretations, mix them with some saline water and give yourself an enema with them, I can insult you just as well, if not better.
Hi shaman,
I must agree. Kunstler is not an economist nor is he a big time intellectual (like my personal hero Louis Althusser), nor is he a sociologist. But he is very funny at times. Unfortunately, this particular article was neither funny nor astute.
Kunstler's (and Mr. Cramer's audience too) are TV people. Even though Kunstler is essentially a writer, his style is clearly directed at modern audiences that prefer this sort of rhetoric.
It is interesting to note that this Cramer fellow (I saw the video, but I'm not really sure who or what he is) is acting suspiciously like the NASCAR "bubbas" that James so often ridicules. Why he has even has rolled up sleeves like a Peronist. Identification with the proles and their hardship no doubt!
Why does Kunstler not critically analyze the form of presentation of CNBC (jumpy camera, swishy pan graphics, etc), anaylze how industrial captialism "light" is being presented in such a cartoon like manner, meta critically look at how problems with housing and social conditions are being articulated.
I might very well be naive but I find it difficult to take seriously this sort of debate between "Cramers" and "Kunstlers."
Jim Cramer has always acted like that. He is the rolled up sleeves, yelling into the phone, junk bond trader of the 80s. At least, that seems to be the persona he wants to present. The video was kind of chilling because he usually has positive energy in his rants. The one on CNBC was anything but positive.
As to shaman's comment about the stock market not effecting the economy, I would generally have to agree, but in this case disagree. The problem is that an enormous amount of corporate debt is serviced by reissuing bonds. If companies can no longer issue bonds because nobody will buy them, then they can't service the original debt and go bankrupt. The stock market is an indicator of how investors feel about companies' ability to stay in business and thus may serve as a warning that the economy in generaly may be going in a bad direction.
- Scott
"Try sour grapes; you might like them."
I just have to say that I love you two just as you are - I'm getting this total mental image of Statler and Waldorf from the muppets, sitting in the upper deck at an energy conference, and abusing each other when the speaker doesn't have good heckle-fodder for them.
Mr f - what ever I thought about you I take back. BTW, how exactly are you using those shots? Fair use? news?