Peak Oil Booklet - Chapter 4: What Should We Do Now?
Posted by Gail the Actuary on August 18, 2007 - 9:00am
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: food security, gardens, investment, tverberg book, water security [list all tags]
This is a draft of Chapter 4 of my proposed book. The link to previous chapters is http://www.theoildrum.com/tag/tverberg_book .
We know that peak oil will be here soon, and we feel like we should be doing something. But what? It is frustrating to know where to start. In this chapter, we will discuss a few ideas about what we as individuals can do.
1. What will the first few years after peak oil be like?
It is hard to know for certain, but a reasonable guess is that the impact will be like a major recession or depression. Many people will be laid off from work. Gasoline is likely to be very expensive ($10 a gallon or more) and may not be available, except in limited quantities after waiting in line for a long time. Fewer goods of all types will be available in stores. Imports from third-world countries are likely to be especially unavailable, because of the impact of the oil shortage on their economies.
Money may not have the same value as previously--opinion is divided as to whether deflation or rampant inflation will be a problem. Investments, even those previously considered safe, are likely to lose value. Things we take for granted--like bottled water, fast food restaurants, and dry cleaners--may disappear fairly quickly. Electricity may become less reliable, with more frequent outages. Airplane tickets are likely to be extremely expensive, or only available with a special permit based on need.
2. If a scenario like this is coming, what can a person do now?
Here are a few ideas:
• Visit family and friends now, especially those at a distance. This may be more difficult to do in the future.
• Learn to know your neighbors. It is likely that you will need each other's help more in the future.
• If you live by yourself, consider moving in with friends or relatives. In tough times, it is better to have others to rely on. It is also likely to be a lot cheaper.
• Buy a bicycle that you can use as alternate transportation, if the need arises.
• Start walking or jogging for exercise. Get yourself in good enough physical condition that you could walk a few miles if you needed to.
• Take care of your physical health. If you need dental work or new glasses, get them. Don't put off immunizations and other preventive medicine. These may be more difficult to get, or more expensive, later.
• Move to a walkable neighborhood. If it seems likely that you will be able to keep your job, move closer to your job.
• Trade in your car for one with better mileage. If you have a SUV, you can probably sell it at a better price now than in the future.
• If you have two cars powered by gasoline, consider trading one for a diesel-powered vehicle. That way, if gasoline (or diesel) is not available, you will still have one car you can drive.
• Make sure that you have at least a two-week supply of food and water, if there is some sort of supply disruption. It is always good to have some extra for an emergency--the likelihood of one arising is greater now.
• Keep reasonable supplies of things you may need in an emergency--good walking shoes, boots, coats, rain wear, blankets, flashlights and batteries (or wind-up flashlights).
• Take up hobbies that you will be able to continue in a low energy world, such as gardening, knitting, playing a musical instrument, bird watching, or playing cards with neighbors.
• Join a local sustainability group or "permaculture" group and start learning about sustainable gardening methods.
3. Do I need to do more than these things?
It really depends on how much worse things get, and how quickly. If major services like electricity and water remain in place for many years, and if gasoline and diesel remain reasonably available, then relatively simple steps will go a a long way.
Some steps that might be helpful to add once the crunch comes include:
• Join a carpool for work, or make arrangements to work at home. If public transportation is available, use it.
• Cut out unnecessary trips. Eat meals at home. Take your lunch to work. Walk or jog in your neighborhood rather than driving to the gym. Order from the internet or buy from stores you can walk to, rather than driving alone to stores.
• If you live a distance from shopping, consider forming a neighborhood carpool for grocery and other shopping. Do this for other trips as well, such as attending church. If closer alternatives are available, consider them instead.
• Plant a garden in your yard. Put in fruit or nut trees. Make a compost pile, and use it in your garden. Put to use what you learned in sustainability or permaculture groups.
• Meat, particularly beef, is likely to be very expensive. Learn to prepare meals using less meat. Make casseroles like your grandmother's, making a small amount of meat go a long way. Or make soup using a little meat plus vegetables or beans.
• Use hand-me-down clothing for younger children. Or have a neighborhood garage sale, and trade clothing with others near you.
4. Should families continue to have two, three, or four children, as they often do today?
With the uncertainties ahead, it would be much better if families were very small--one child, or none at all. The world's population has grown rapidly in the last 100 years. Part of the reason for growth is the fact that with oil and natural gas, it was possible to grow much more food than in the past. As we lose the use of these fossil fuels, it is likely that we will not be able to produce as much food as in the past, because of reduced ability to irrigate crops, and reduced availability of fertilizers, insecticides, and herbicides. In addition, manufactured goods of all types, including clothing and toys, are likely to be less available, with declining fossil fuel supply. Having smaller families will help fit the population to the available resources.
If couples have completed their families, it would probably be worthwhile for them to consider a permanent method of contraception, since birth control may be less available or more expensive.
5. Are there any reasons why steps such as those outlined in Question 3 might be too little to handle the problem?
Besides the decline in oil production, there are a number of other areas of concern. Hopefully, most of these will never happen, or if they do happen, will not occur for several years. If they do happen, greater measures than those outlined in Question 3 are likely to be needed.
• Collapse of the financial system. Our financial system needs growth to sustain it, so that loans can be paid back with interest. Once peak oil hits, growth will be gone. Economic growth may even be replaced with economic decline. It is not clear our financial system can handle this.
• Collapse of foreign trade. Many factors may come into play: The cost of transportation will be higher. Airline transport may not be available at all. Fewer goods are likely to be produced by the poorer countries of the world, because of power outages related to high oil prices. Rapid inflation/deflation may make monetary transactions more difficult.
• Rapid climate change. Recently, scientists have discovered that climate change can take place over a very short period of time--as little as a decade or two. Temperature and precipitation changes may cause crop failures, and may make some areas no longer arable. Sea levels may also rise.
• Failure of the electrical grid. The grid tends to be vulnerable to many kinds of problems--including deterioration due to poor maintenance, damage during storms, and attacks in times of civil unrest. Maintenance is currently very poor (grade of D) according to the "Report Card on America's Infrastructure" by the American Society of Civil Engineers. If we cannot maintain the grid, and upgrade it for the new wind and solar capacity being added, we will all be in the dark.
• Water shortages. There are several issues--We are drawing down some aquifers at unsustainable rates, and these may be depleted. Climate change may reduce the amount of water available, by melting ice caps and changing storm patterns. City water and sewer systems require considerable energy inputs to continue functioning. If these are not provided, the systems will stop. Finally, systems must also be adequately maintained--something that is neglected currently.
• Road deterioration. If we don't have roads, it doesn't matter whether we have cars. In the future, asphalt (a petroleum product) is expected to become more and more expensive and less available. It is not clear whether recycling asphalt from lesser-used roads will overcome this difficulty.
• Decline in North American natural gas production. Natural gas is especially used for home heating, making plastics and making fertilizer. It is also used in electrical generation, particularly for extra load capacity when demand is high. Conventional natural gas is declining, and it is not clear that supply from other sources can make up the gap.
• Inadequate mineral supplies. A number of minerals are becoming less avaialble, including copper (used in electric wiring), platinum (used in catalytic converters), phosphorous (used in fertilizer).
• Fighting over available supplies. This could happen at any level. Individuals with inadequate food or gasoline may begin using violence. Or there may be fighting among groups within a nation, or between nations.
6. Are there any reasons for optimism?
Yes. We know that people throughout the ages have gotten along successfully with far fewer resources than we have now, and with much less foreign trade. Financial systems have gotten into trouble in the past, and eventually new systems have replaced them. If nothing else, barter works.
We know that among the countries of the world, the United States, Canada, and Russia have reasonably good resource endowments in relation to their populations. They have fairly large amounts of land for crops, moderate rainfall, reasonable amounts of fossil fuels remaining, and populations that are not excessively large.
We also know that Cuba successfully made a transition from high oil usage to much lower oil usage, through the development of local gardens, increased public transit, and bicycles. A movie has been made about the Cuban experience.
7. What should we do, if we want to do more than described in Question 3?
Some web sites (such as Life After the Oil Crash and wtdwtshtf.com) advocate moving to a farming area, buying land and hand tools, and learning to farm without fossil fuels. Typically, an individual purchases an existing farmhouse and adds solar panels or a windmill. The web sites generally recommend storing up large supplies of food, clothing, medicine, tools, guns, and ammunition, and learning a wide range of skills. These sites also suggest storing some things (liquor, razor blades, aspirin, etc.) for purposes of barter.
This approach may work for a few people, but it has its drawbacks. Making such a big move is likely to be expensive, and will most likely involve leaving one's job. The individual will be alone, so security may be a problem. The individual may be dependent on his or her own resources for most things, especially if the farm is in a remote location. If the weather is bad, crops may fail. Living on the edge of a small town may prevent some problems, but such a move would still be a major undertaking.
8. How about Ecovillages? What are they?
These are communities dedicated to the idea of sustainable living. These communities were set up in response to many issues facing the world, including global warming, resource depletion, and lifestyles that are not fulfilling. They were generally not formed with peak oil in mind.
Each ecovillage is different. Organizers often buy a large plot of land and lay out a plan for it. Individuals buy into the organization. Homes may be made from sustainable materials, such as bales of straw. Gardening is generally done using "permaculture"- a sustainable organic approach. Individuals may have assigned roles in the community.
The few ecovillages I investigated did not seem to truly be sustainable--they bought much of their food and clothing from outside, and made money by selling tours of their facilities. The ecovilliage approach could theoretically be expanded to provide self-sustaining post-peak oil communities, but would require some work. Some adventuresome readers may want to try this approach.
9. Is there a middle ground? What should be people be doing now, if they want to do more than outlined in Questions 2 and 3, but aren't ready to immerse themselves in a new lifestyle?
As a middle ground, people need to start thinking seriously about how to maintain their own food and water security, and start taking steps in that direction.
Food security. We certainly hope our current system of agriculture will continue without interruption, but there is no guarantee of this. Our current method is very productive, but uses huge amounts of energy. If we can keep our current system going, its productivity would likely be higher than that of a large number of individual gardens. The concern is that eventually the current system may break down due to reduced oil supply and need to be supplemented. Vulnerabilities include:
• Making hybrid seed, and transporting it to farmers
• Getting diesel fuel to the farmers who need it
• Transporting food to processing centers by truck
• Creating processed food in energy-intensive factories
• Making boxes and other containers for food
• Transporting processed food to market
If diesel fuel is allocated by high price alone, farmers may not be able to afford fuel, and may drop out. Or truck drivers may not be able to get what they need.
It is in our best interest to have a back-up plan. The one most often suggested is growing gardens in our yards--even front yards. Another choice is encouraging local farms, so that transportation is less of an issue. It takes several years to get everything working well (new skills learned, fruit trees to reach maturity), so we need to start early.
One type of crop that is particularly important is grain, since grain provides a lot of calories and stores well. In some parts of the country, potatoes might be a good substitute. It would be good if people started planting grain in gardens in their yards. There is a lot to learn in order to do this, including learning which grains grow well, how much moisture and nutrients the grains need, and how to process them. If the grain that grows well is unfamiliar, like amaranth, there is also a need to learn how to use it in cooking.
Individuals (or local farms) should also begin growing other foods that grow well in their areas, including fruits and nuts, greens of various types, and other more traditional garden crops, including beans. For all types of gardening, non-hybrids seeds (sometimes called heirloom seeds) are probably best for several reasons:
• It makes storing seeds after harvest possible, and reduces dependence on hybrid seeds.
• There is less uniformity, so the harvest is spread over a longer period.
• The reduced uniformity also helps prevent crop failure in years with drought or excessive rain. Some seeds will not grow, but others will. (Hybrids are all or nothing.)
Imported foods are likely to shrink in supply more quickly than other foods. If you live in a country that is dependent on imported foods, you may want to consider moving elsewhere.
Water Security. Here, the largest issue is whether there is likely to be sufficient supply in your area. Another issue is whether there will be sufficient water for your garden, at appropriate times. A third issue is whether there will be disruptions in general, because of poor maintenance or because the process of treating fresh water (and sewage) is energy-intensive.
With respect to sufficient water in your area, if it looks like there is a problem (desert Southwest, for example), relocating now rather than later is probably a good idea. Transporting water is energy intensive, and new efforts at developing energy (like shale oil or more ethanol) are likely to make the water supply situation even worse.
With respect to water for gardening, consider a rainwater catchment system for your roof. Runoff water is saved in barrels, and can be used for irrigation in dry periods.
General disruptions of water supply are more difficult. Keep some bottled water on hand. You may also want to consider a tank for greater storage supply. Rainwater catchment can be used for drinking water, with the correct type of roofing (not asphalt shingles!) and proper treatment, but this is not generally legal in the United States.
10. What kind of investments should I be making?
A person's first priority should be buying at least a little protection for a rainy day - some extra food and water, comfortable clothing, blankets and flashlights. I suggested two weeks worth in Question 2. If you have money and space, you may want to buy more.
Paying down debt is probably a good idea, if only for the peace of mind it brings. There are some possible scenarios where debt is not a problem (hyper-inflation but you keep your existing job and get a raise). In many other scenarios (deflation; job lay-offs; rising food and energy prices) debt is likely to be even harder to pay off than it is now.
Land for a garden is probably a good investment, as well as garden tools. You will want to invest in gardening equipment, some books on permaculture, and perhaps some heirloom seeds. You may also want to consider a rainwater catchment system, to collect water from your roof.
You may also want to invest in solar panels for your home. If you want round-the-clock solar energy, you will also need back-up batteries. Buying these is questionable--they tend to be very expensive, require lots of maintenance, and need to be replaced often.
There is a possibility that the financial system will run into difficulty in the not-too-distant future. Some ideas for investments that may protect against this are
• Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
• Bank accounts protected by the FDIC
• Gold coins
• Silver coins
If you want to invest in the stock market, we know that there will be more and more drilling done for oil and gas done in the next few years, so companies making drilling equipment are likely to do well. Small independent oil and gas companies may also do well, doing "work-over" business. We know that there are likely to be shortages in some metals in the years ahead (copper, platinum, uranium), so shares in companies mining these types of metals may do well.
Investments in biofuels should be considered with caution. Most ethanol from corn appears to be heavily dependent on subsidies. If it should ever have to compete with other fuels on a level playing ground, it is likely to do poorly.
I would be cautious about buying insurance policies, except for short-term needs such as automobile coverage, homeowners coverage, and term life insurance. If we encounter a period of significant deflation, insurance companies are likely to fail, because bondholders cannot pay their debt. If we run into a period of rapid inflation, the life insurance or long term care coverage you buy may have very little real value when you come to use it.
11. Should I move to a different location?
There are many reasons you might want to consider moving to a different location:
• To find something less expensive. If times are going to be difficult, you do not want to be paying most of your income on a mortgage or rent.
• To be closer to friends or family, in the difficult times ahead.
• To share a house or apartment with friends or family.
• To be closer to work or public transportation.
• To be closer to a type of employment that you believe will have a better chance of continuing in the future.
• To have better fresh water supplies.
• To join a community with similar interests in sustainability.
• To leave a community that you feel may be prone to violence, in time of shortage.
There are disadvantages as well as advantages to moving to a new location. If many others are trying to move at the same time, you may not be welcome in the new community. You will likely not have friends and the support group you would have had in your prior location. Because of these issues, it is probably better to move sooner, rather than later, if you are going to move. If you balance the pluses and the minuses, it may be better to stay where you are.
12. We hear a lot about various things we can do to be "green", like buying fluorescent light bulbs. Do these save oil?
Most of the "green" ideas you read about save energy of some kind, but not necessarily oil. Even so, they are still a good idea. If there is a shortage of one type of energy, it tends to affect other types of energy as well. Doing “green” things is also helpful from a global warming perspective.
Here are some green ideas besides using fluorescent light bulbs:
• Move to a smaller house or apartment.
• Insulate your house, and have it professionally sealed to keep out drafts.
• If any rooms are unused, do not heat and cool them.
• Keep your house warmer in summer, and cooler in winter.
• If you no longer need a big refrigerator, buy a smaller one. Be sure it is an "Energy Star" refrigerator.
• If you have more than one refrigerator, get rid of the extra(s). Refrigerators are a big source of energy use. For parties, use ice in a tub.
• Separate freezers are also big energy users. Consider doing without.
• Eat less meat. Also avoid highly processed foods and bottled water. All of these require large amounts of energy for production.
• Get power strips and turn off appliances that drain energy when not in use.
• Turn off lights that are not needed.
• Rewire lights into smaller "banks", so you do not need to light up the whole basement when all you want is light in a small corner.
• Get a clothes line, so you do not need to use your clothes dryer.
• When cooking, use the microwave whenever possible.
• Reduce air travel to a minimum. Air travel results in a huge number of miles of travel with corresponding fuel use.
• Recycle whenever you can.
• Eliminate disposables as much as possible (coffee cups, napkins, plastic bags, etc.)
13. Should we be talking to our local government officials about these problems?
Yes! At the local level, there are many changes that would be helpful:
• Laws permitting people to put up clothes lines in their yards.
• Laws encouraging gardens to be grown, even in the front yards of homes.
• Laws permitting multiple occupancy of houses by unrelated individuals.
• New local public transportation plans, particularly ones that do not require large outlay of funds. For example, a plan that is more like a glorified car pool might work.
• Allocation of funds to study the best crops to be grown in the area, and the best cultivation methods, if energy supplies are much lower in the future.
It would also be helpful to make changes at higher levels of government, but these are beyond the scope of the discussion in this chapter.
14. What other resources might we look at to get ideas about what is ahead what we might do now?
The Community Solution is an organization that puts on an annual sustainability conference and issues reports on energy-related solutions.
Global Public Media has a number of talks on relocalization.
Closing the Collapse Gap is a humorous talk by Dmitry Orlov. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1990, and its oil production dropped about that time. Dmitry compares the US situation to that of the USSR.
Rolling Stone has a short summary of The Long Emergency, a book by James Howard Kunstler.
Links by Question:
Q2: Calculate a "walk score" for any neighborhood - Learn about walkable neighborhoods
http://www.walkscore.com/get-score.shtml?street=500+7th+street%2C+arcata...
Q4: Eating Fossil Fuels: Oil, Food, and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture by David Allen Pfeiffer, New Society Publishers, 2006
http://www.amazon.com/Eating-Fossil-Fuels-Coming-Agriculture/dp/08657156...
Q5-1: Rapid Climate Change, American Institute of Physics
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/rapid.htm
Q5-2: Report Card for America's Infrastructure by American Society of Civil Engineers
http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=92
Q5-3: Earth Policy Institute, Lester Brown President
http://www.earth-policy.org/
Q5-4: Report Card for America's Infrastructure by American Society of Civil Engineers
http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=92
Q5-5: National Petroleum Council - Hard Truths about America's Energy Supply, 2007
http://downloads.connectlive.com/events/npc071807/pdf-downloads/Facing_H...
Q5-6: Measure of Metal Supply Finds Future Shortage, David Biello, Scientific American, January 17, 2006.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000CEA15-3272-13C8-9BFE83414B...
Q5-7: Carmakers Gear Up for the Next Shortage-Platinum, The Mining News, July 6, 2005
http://www.theminingnews.org/news.cfm?newsID=800
Q5-8: Peak Phosphorus by Patrick Dery and Bart Anderson, August 13, 2007
http://www.energybulletin.net/33164.html
Q6: The Power Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, Movie Directed by Faith Morgan, The Community Solution
Q7-1: Life After the Oil Crash
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Q7-2: What to Do When the Shit Hits the Fan
http://wtdwtshtf.com/
Q8: Global Ecovillage Network
http://gen.ecovillage.org/
Q9-1: Local Harvest directory of local food sources
http://www.localharvest.org/about.jsp
Q9-2: Amaranth, Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaranth
Q9-3: Heirloom Seeds
http://www.heirloomseeds.com/
Q9-4: American Rainwater Catchment Systems Association
http://www.arcsa-usa.org/
Q10-1: American Rainwater Catchment Systems Association
http://www.arcsa-usa.org/
Q10-2: Treasury Securities, Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treasury_security
Q12-1: Southface: Responsible Solutions for Environmental Living
http://www.southface.org/
Q12-2: Energy Star by US Environmental Protection Agency and US Department of Energy
http://www.energystar.gov/
Q14-1: The Community Solution Home Page
http://www.communitysolution.org/index.html
Q14-2: The Community Solution Conference, October 26-28, 2007 Yellow Springs, Ohio
http://www.communitysolution.org/conference.html
Q14-3: The Community Solution Reports
http://www.communitysolution.org/nsreports.html
Q14-4: Closing the Collapse Gap: The Soviet Union Was Better Prepared for Collapse than the US, by Dmitry Orlov, December 4, 2006
http://energybulletin.net/23259.html
Q14-5: Summary of The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler, March 24, 2005
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency
PDF This is a link to a PDF of this chapter.
Gail - very nice, thank you for preparing this.
I have one minor suggestion. The term "third world" is a relic of the cold war era - it originally referred to the capitalist west as the first world, the communist bloc as the second world, and the pre-industrial countries as the third world.
Maybe "developing" or "industrializing" countries would be a more contemporary term. Of course then you have the question about whether these countries will continue to be "developing" post-peak.
Gail, I've been reading your drafts and I must say you are putting a lot of thought and work into this. Perhaps you've discussed what follows already, if so just ignore my comments.
I don't recall you saying anything about neighborhood co-ops that exist already. I'm not referring to the seed and feed stores, but rather to loose associations of people who agree among themselves as to who grows what each year. There are advantages to having not to grow all things yourself. Primarily because its more efficient if you grow only grain crops and your neighbor grows fruits, and another grows root crops, etc. With exception of trees, crop rotation occurs between participants, so that if I grew grain last year, and you grew beans we would rotate with each other and the other participants. This keeps the soil from deteriorating, etc. and makes much more sense than trying to grow everything yourself. The folks here where I live already do this somewhat informally and it works well. It also encourages internal family to family trade, cooperation on other things, and creates a better social environment for everyone. A small 40'x40' garden plot is sufficient to grow many things with enough left over for trading so one needn't think that multi-acre farming is necessary. This approach, of course, doesn't exclude growing the usual backyard crops, like tomatoes, etc. for your own consumption, but many people often grow far too many tomatoes, cucumbers, etc. than they can use themselves, and the excess typically ends up being wasted.
There are a lot of things I don't know about. What you are talking about sounds like a good idea, and if I can, I should at least reference it.
Do you have a web site address that talks a little about this kind of thing?
I suppose there are some urls, but I've not looked for them. I'll see what I can find. It's just sort of common sense around here, but this is a small rural community (~5k ) - primarily farming, but those who don't farm (myself for instance ) have other skills that don't rely on electricity or gas and can trade those skills for what is produced by those who do farm, raise livestock, etc. For example, I'm a fairly decent woodworker. I use power tools, but also have the hand tools and skills to build useful items out from a tree ( and I have several thousand trees )without electricity - it just takes longer. And others here can do the same with pottery, metal work, community defense, etc. Just a couple quick rhetorical questions related to my particular "specialty" to give a sense of the depth of knowledge one should have in their chosen skill: Would you know how to dry green lumber? Know what a shaving horse is? The difference in quartersawn, vs. rift sawn? How to sharpen a handplane or saw? Could you build a wheelbarrow(starting with a live tree ) without using any metal fasteners, power tools, or glue's? Can you make hide glue? and so on. :)
Often these sort of informal co-ops are an outgrowth of church groups/congregations but that's not a requirement.
The people who are totally reliant on massively complex logistical support for their survival (NYC, LA, for example )will be the ones who suffer in your worst case example.
Edit: Ok, got in under the wire with a couple:
The first is general information that's good to know. It doesn't cover everything in total detail, but is a good starter.
http://www.primitiveways.com/index.html
This other is pretty much all woodworking related with handtools. I'm sure their are similar sites for other basic skills, and small community co-ops. In fact the "official farm co-ops would be an excellent source of info.
http://www.cianperez.com/Wood/WoodDocs/Wood_How_To/INDEX_How_To.htm
and a essential book everyone should have: Glover Pocket Reference, about $8 from Amazon - http://www.amazon.com/Pocket-Ref-Thomas-J-Glover/dp/1885071000
This entire concept is as foreign as an obscure language to big-city folks I'm sure, who often don't even know who lives in the apartment next door. It was to me for 3/4's of my life and I'm in my 60's now. 3 times as many people now, as when I was born. Different skill sets required for city vs. country life, so the outcome is dependent on which skill set is more conducive to species survival. Votes are still being counted.
BTW, this community has been here over 200 years. It's not one of those "eco-village" experiments.
Thanks for the ideas. I will have to figure out a way to incorporate them. It is a problem for most of us to get our knowledge level up regarding the many needed skills.
Gail this is a great list and in a way sounds wonderful, I for one am ready to slow down and get off the treadmill. Heirloom seeds may also fall into the catagory of "open pollinated" seed, meaning seeds from these plants can be saved and replanted. Corn, wheat, soybeans all were open pollinated originally and wheat to a large extent still is free of genetic modification. One other suggestion I would make while folks still have decent paying jobs is to eliminate debt ASAP, it will be much easier to make ends meet without bank and credit card debt when times get tough.
I talk about paying down debt in the investments section. Maybe I should label it "debt and investments".
I'd think that to "slow down and get off the treadmill" is fundamentally incompatible with trying to be more self-sufficient. In countries where subsistence farming is still the norm, people almost never get off the treadmill - it's often 12 hour days 7 days a week.
Wiz,
Well, you obviously haven't done it but I made a decision to slow down and get off the tread mill over 30 years ago. Sure there are trade-offs but let's talk about 12 hour days.
I've worked lots of them over the years however there is a difference between 12 hours "at work for someone else" and 12 hours "at home working for yourself." Right now I'm finishing up cutting and splitting firewood. If I get tired of playing timberfaller, I quit and do something else for awhile (and there really is always something else that is worthwhile to do). This morning I split wood for a bit then decided to irrigate the strawberries. And, now I'm posting this after which I'll irrigate the garden and then go back to firewood.
My only commute is walking out the door. I live on top of a mountain and it is peaceful and serene. No noise except the wind or birds (well, there is the chainsaw when I'm cutting). I don't have a boss who wants me to cut corners or lie to get a customer. I work to my own standards even if it isn't efficient in a business sense of cranking out more faster and faster.
If I get really tired in the afternoon, I may stop and sit down for a bit and have a beer or two then go back to what I was doing. I'm not stuck in an office or cubical watching the clock.
Gene Logsdon has a neat section about some Amish gathering corn in his book The Contrary Farmer, ISBN 0-930031-67-9 (a book which everyone who is thinking about Ag should read). Anyway, he sort of snuck through a corn row and watched them work. He expected that they would be grumpy and doing it because they "had" to. Instead, he found that they were actually having a good time while wroking. To me this is one of the major differences between the kind of life I have led since saying the hell with being a chem plant manager and living in the boondocks. Yes, there is an unending bunch of work to do but work is fun (most of the time) even when it is hard and makes for a long day.
Todd
Todd,
That lifestyle obviously appeals to you, and may appeal to many posters here, but I'd still suggest most people aren't going to see it as being off the treadmill.
Admittedly my perspective is somewhat warped, as I have the freedom to work from home as much as I want, virtually whatever hours I want (within reason), and have a high level of control over what projects we take on. My 'boss' has never asked me to cut corners or lie to customers either (in fact my sum total contact with my boss is when he shouts us to a nice lunch once a week). I've even asked recently whether I can trade in a pay-raise for a reduction in working hours, which he's considering.
I suppose what I'm suggesting is that there's more than one way to escape the constant pace and pressure of working for large corporations - and I suspect there's more options for those who choose to continue to work in high-technology jobs as part of a small company, or even run their own companies, than there are for those who wish to take up a more rural, self-sustaining existence.
I'd be happy to change it. My only problem is that I think really these are never-to-develop countries or never-to-industrialize countries.
How would lesser developed countries work?
I ended up changing the reference third world countries to "poorer countries".
I'm afraid you're wrong about the use of the term "third world."
A nation is called such depending upon its infrastructer and othercommon characteristics, such as poverty, high birthrates, and economic dependence on the advanced countries.
It has nothing to do with the cold war.
Goodness BRNM, do a little backup work please. ”Third World” emerged early in the Cold War to distinguish the non-aligned nations belonging formally to neither the US nor Soviet blocs.
I'm always concerned that any individual or community preparations, however intelligent or prescient, will be swamped and rendered useless or worse by unpredictable - but then overwhelming - national government actions, once governments actually are moved to act. In all recent historical crises in developed countries that I can think of, it has been the national reaction that mattered by far the most. In the 1930's for example there was no way for concerned individuals to prepare rationally for the threat of Hitler without knowing in advance the actions of their own national governments. Switzerland, France, England, Sweden, and Norway all behaved, in the event, very differently; and preparations that made sense in one would have been useless or dangerous in another. I would think therefore that the first individual preparation is to work for a national government that understands peak oil - and attempt to influence its policies. The example of Cuba is not one where individual preparedness made any difference.
I find it hard to believe that the US government is going to do much helpful in terms of preparation. If they actually do, it would seem to go together with the kinds of things I am talking about.
I expect the government will try to let higher prices sort things out, and this really won't work (or perhaps put in price controls). We will end up with shortages and perhaps riots.
The rise of Hitler was a corporate one, government went along for the ride. Individuals that collaborate with corporations instead of acting for their own interest (buying prepared/processed food instead of growing it, for example) don't give up their freedoms to government, but to corporations. The government has constitutional limits to its atrocities (well, the ones they don't ignore at the behest of corporations, anyway).
Cuba's example is one where people were already poor, so it doesn't necessarily fit how we get started on a Descent plan, but their cooperation and fortitude to endure until their localized markets and gardens could compensate for the loss of centralized supplies is commendable.
The critical fulcrum is how much Systematized support we are going to force the government into. A country of independent farmers and small businesses would force the government toward Rooseveltian socialism and distributed logistics. A country of systems-dependent urbanite technocrats would force the government toward centrally planned corporatocracy and control-point logistics (look for the stories about detention camps, consolidated meat processors, factory farms, ID chips in babies and animals, Prozac in the water supplies, etc). The latter would eventually fail anyway, due to its dependence on inputs of energy, chemicals, drugs, and suppression, but it would be a sadder road to follow than one of cooperation and compassion.
The Corporacrats will claim that "We don't have a cow and garden in every yard anymore, so we have to provide food to people through our infrastructure."
Better to PUT a garden in every yard NOW, then, dontchathink...maybe a goat to mow the lawn instead of gasoline?
Goats are a bad choice for lawn maintenence as they prefer shrubs, much like deer. Sheep are better. Still better is to have very little grass. Its a fun hobby and an edible landscape with a lot of mulch to keep down weeds, cool the soil in the summer, and protect roots in the winter is usefull.
I suggest purchasing lots of gardening and landscaping books. Its a fun hobby, and should be very useful. This is a cheap book hint-if you are looking for books on a decent profitable hobby like gardening, go the Salvation Army Thrift Stores, Goodwill, Purple Heart, ect.
Books on gardening change because fashions in pictures change, the illustrations don't show the latest fads. People have been gardening since before there was writing and civilisation. And its the same with many basic skills like sewing. Since the pictures show an avocado green refrigerator in the cook book the publisher commissions a new one. If it shows a guy with long hair and bell bottoms building a compost heap or a rabbit hutch, rewrite and update. I've seen these kinds of books selling for as little as 2 for a dollar hardback, and five for a dollar paperback.
The thrift stores get their stuff as donations when someone moves or after a garage sale. They receive donations on the terms " Take it all or i'll call --- to come and get it." Once it's in their reception area, they either have to sell it or pay to dump it, and used books seldom sell well, but they don't take up much space. And if you want a great post crash barter items, books and tools fit the bill. They're portable, but not worth stealing and worth their weight in canned fruit cocktail.
Used tools are also great-hammers, saws, screwdrivers, tapemeasures, stuff that doesn't require electricity. Pawnshops are the place for that stuff, you can get this stuff for about 1/4th the price of new retail, but at garage sales they sell quickly, so thrift stores don't work Bob Ebersole
A country of systems-dependent urbanite technocrats would force the government toward centrally planned corporatocracy and control-point logistics (look for the stories about detention camps, consolidated meat processors, factory farms, ID chips in babies and animals, Prozac in the water supplies, etc).
Try this one.
Exclusive excerpt: The Road to 9/11: Wealth, Empire, and the Future of America Terror, oil and the "shadow government"
http://www.guerrillanews.com/articles/3242/Exclusive_excerpt_The_Road_to...
Our government, at the federal level, is worse than useless. Policy is bought and sold by corporate interests. Some profit from violence, many profit from chaos(think hedge funds), and most cease to exist with the removal of essentially free global transport. The projection of military force requires vast amounts of fuel. All of these things going away look like "the end" for a corporate interest and they'll be as suicidal as an individual can get. We, The People are going to end up in polarized opposition to the state before this is all done.
"I'm always concerned that any individual or community preparations, however intelligent or prescient, will be swamped and rendered useless or worse by unpredictable - but then overwhelming - national government actions, once governments actually are moved to act."
I tend to agree that preparation at the level of an individual family has a high probability of being overwhelmed by shocks to the larger economic system. Community level (neighborhood, town, county, bio-region etc) changes have a somewhat better chance of providing some degree of economic protection. However, it is unlikely that any of these levels of community organization will become completely independent from the national and global economies in the near future, so that shocks from these larger systems will be felt everywhere.
Unfortunately I also agree with Gail that the chance of national governments providing any real leadership in this crisis is near zero. National governments remain utterly committed to short term corporate profits and to allowing financial speculators a free hand. Every other consideration is secondary to these primary commitments.
I believe that a sustainable economic future requires the development of a system of democratic social investment whose object is to produce long term sustainable wealth for the community and not to increase the purchasing power of individual investors. We need to be able allocate production resources to enterprises which we perceive to be valuable for the community without paying private financiers for the privilege of doing so. We need to create a wealth maintaining economy rather than an economy that is committed to constantly increasing levels of wealth. A social and political revolution is required and not just a technocratic plan for improving energy efficiency and subsidizing renewable energy resources. The emergence of such revolutionary changes is unlikely to take place prior to a major meltdown of the current economic system.
Roger K, very well said, currently we have money for the war machine and nothing for a sustainable future. As the public loses more and more of its individual wealth to the corporate absconders the seeds of revolution will be sown.
Gail, your book is a winner! I hope and expect to see it published in a year or so, and I think your sales may be very good indeed. Two thoughts, however:
1. I don't think the price of gasoline in the U.S. is going to ten dollars a gallon or above ten dollars a gallon before the year 2020 because political realities will demand that the government impose coupon rationing rather than let the price of gasoline get much above six dollars. I think Americans will hate rationing and do everything they can to cheat on the system, but I do not believe that any party can afford the political heat that will go along with gasoline prices much more than double current levels.
2. I question your advice as to the desirability of having few or no children. In the future, pensions and savings and Social Security are likely to be gone or unreliable at best as a source of income security in old age. If you do not have children to rely on, what are your prospects for survival and comfort in old age? To take a specific example, I am comfortably retired on a Teacher's Retirement Association pension and rather generous Social Security income plus Medicare coverage. If, for example, hyperinflation wipes out my security, what then? I am in the fortunate position of having four adult children, each of whom would take me in and care for me should the need arise. My long-term security depends far more on my children than it does on the quality of my financial investments. Another consideration, frequently pointed out by Leanan, is that on farms big families are an asset, because the children provide the labor that you need to run a farm. Thus, although the short-term burden of raising children during hard financial times is considerable, in the long term they could turn out to be one's most valuable asset.
Don-
1. I agree with you that rationing is likely, but I wasn't sure I could come out and say so. I thought this would get the idea across that the gas just wouldn't be available. Suggesting a high price and long wait is less of a change from today's situation than rationing. I could change "$10 or $20" to "$10 or more".
2. Regarding number of children, I think someone needs to start raising this issue. If a child is born in 2008, and would normally have a life expectancy of 77 years, they would expect to live to 2085. By then, we will be substantially out of all fossil fuels, and climate change may be much worse than it is today. Unless we find some great solutions, the world will be able to support a much lower population.
It would be best to do what we can to start reducing population. You are right that people will want children to take care of them in their old age, but we also know that birth rates decreased a lot during the depression. Perhaps the same thing will happen again.
The noncoupon efforts to deal with the restricted gasoline supplies of the nineteen seventies were not very effective; I think what we learned from them is that coupons plus price controls are needed to seriously reduce the amount of gasoline consumption (without skyrocketing prices beyond $10 per gallon).
Now in terms of plausibility, which do you think is more likely:
1. The government stands by while "free" market prices soar to twelve, to fifteen and then to twenty dollars per gallon of gasoline, causing the poor and the middle classes to be destroyed or
2. Our wise and benevolent government [sarconol alert] steps in to protect the little guy with marketable gasoline coupons. The beauty of marketable coupons is that it is a way to transfer income from relatively rich consumers of many gallons to relatively poor people who can get by (with some difficulty, including car pooling and an end to discretionary driving) with fewer gallons, say ten gallons per week. The transfer of income is going to become a huge, huge gigantic issue in the context of Peak Oil, and rationing is perceived to be more "fair" than is "price gouging." Note that marketable coupons will allow the rich to get all the gasoline they want--at very high prices-- while they will allow the majority to have some gasoline at moderate (say six or seven dollars per gallon) prices.
I bet on #2b.
Marketable gasoline coupons---except that the amount you get is proportional to your vehicle's fuel consumption times the average distance for trips. If you have a big SUV and hummer, you'll get plenty. If you have a Prius, well you'll have to do with less.
Red-state vs blue state power politics of course. Texans and Montanans in F-*50's will get fat coupon books, and the smart ones will sell them off---San Franciscans will hardly get bupkis and of course Fox News will sneer and blame them.
FWIW, I think rationing is highly unlikely.
First, there is a very strong consensus in TPTB that it is a bad idea, which makes every problem much worse (I agree) by creating shortages, hoarding, black markets, etc. Many of the problems anticipated by Gail's scenario are actually the results of the assumed rationing.
2nd, the wholesale price of gasoline, before taxes, is only a little over $2. $20 gas would require $700 oil, which won't happen. $200 oil ($7 gasoline in the US) would be more than enough to produce 5% annual reductions in oil consumption. European prices at that level restrain consumption to 16% of US per capita levels. Heck, the US could reduce it's oil consumption by 10% in 3 months with aggressive car-pooling.
Carpooling...now there I could see serious government intervention, to make it mandatory.