DrumBeat: August 17, 2007
Posted by Leanan on August 17, 2007 - 9:08am
Topic: Miscellaneous
TVA reactor shut down; cooling water from river too hot
The Tennessee Valley Authority shut down one of three units at the Browns Ferry nuclear plant Thursday because water drawn from a river to cool the reactor was too hot, a spokesman said.The nation's largest public utility shut down Unit 2 about 5:42 p.m. CDT because water drawn from the Tennessee River was exceeding a 90-degree average over 24 hours, amid a blistering heat wave across the Southeast.
"We don't believe we've ever shut down a nuclear unit because of river temperature," said John Moulton, spokesman for the Knoxville, Tenn.-based utility.
UAE to cut oil production for rig maintenance
The United Arab Emirates will shut around a quarter of its oil output for two to three weeks of planned maintenance at two of its largest fields from the end of October, a Gulf industry source said yesterday.The shutdown will cut output from the world’s sixth-largest oil exporter by around 630,000 barrels per day (bpd), he said. Oil traders in Asia said the total output reduction would be as high as 810,000 bpd as a third field would also undergo work.
International Companies Bid for Cyprus Oil Exploration Licenses
A U.S.-based company and an international consortium applied for licenses Thursday to explore for oil off Cyprus' coast, the Trade and Industry Ministry said.
Why watching war games is a waste of energy
Out of all the West’s worries about the SCO, the greatest should be control of energy supplies. The war games, at the moment, are a showy distraction.
Shell Alaska Drilling Project Blocked by US Appeals Court
A federal appeals court ruled Wednesday that Royal Dutch Shell PLC must further postpone plans for exploratory drilling off the northern coast of Alaska.The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals also indicated that environmental and Alaska Native groups have a good chance of prevailing in their effort to keep the energy giant out of the Beaufort Sea.
Dutch crown prince warns against prioritizing biofuels over food
Dutch Crown Prince Willem-Alexander warned against diverting water resources from food production to biofuels, saying Wednesday that feeding people is more important than fueling cars."Biofuels is a great way to support our Western way of life, but it's not a necessity for mankind to survive. Food is," said Willem-Alexander, who chairs the U.N. secretary-general's advisory board on water and sanitation.
Forget biofuels - burn oil and plant forests instead
It sounds counterintuitive, but burning oil and planting forests to compensate is more environmentally friendly than burning biofuel. So say scientists who have calculated the difference in net emissions between using land to produce biofuel and the alternative: fuelling cars with gasoline and replanting forests on the land instead.
Carolyn Baker: The End of the World as we Know it - Hope vs. Mindset
A friend for whom I have a great deal of respect and admiration recently challenged me on my incessant hope-bashing stance and gave me some food for thought which has caused me to reframe the concept of "hope" in my own mind in a way that I can live with. What I cannot live with is a definition of "hope" that externalizes it - that fosters denial and a false and naïve anticipation that government, religion, or to quote Lincoln, "the better angels of our nature" will somehow save humanity from slamming with lethal velocity into the brick walls of our own making-climate chaos, global energy catastrophe, planetary economic meltdown, population overshoot, species extinction and die-off - or nuclear holocaust.
Russia: Cashing Out of Gazprom
Due to government manipulation of events, the stock of Russian energy giant Gazprom has quintupled in value over the past three years. Yet Gazprom's own management is now cashing out, heralding deeper problems in the powerful -- yet bedeviled -- company.
Ukraine may face energy crisis by year end
Ukraine may face an energy crisis by the end of the year because Naftogaz Ukrayiny, the national oil and gas company, has failed to accumulate sufficient reserves of natural gas, a top official said Thursday.
The energy game: from Managua to Caracas
At the Third PetroCaribe Summit held in Caracas last weekend, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega made it clear that ethanol diplomacy would not work in his country. He is reported to have told his Summit colleagues that he had said to President Lula that even if they could use all the land in the world to produce ethanol, they could never satisfy global demand, which, according to Mr Ortega, is infinite under the "developmental model imposed by global capitalism".
Good Luck to Energy Advisor of Bangladesh
The energy situation of Bangladesh is critical and getting worse everyday. The massive flood will break the backbone of our economy and will require steady power supply in the months after the flood to recover the economy from ruins. The farmers will need steady power supply during irrigation season, will require adequate supply of diesel and fertilizers. But judging from the present situation it seems highly unlikely that it will happen. The dry season, hot summer will follow when the deficit of power supply will cause tremendous hue and cry as no additional generations are in view. The increasingly declining gas supply situation in Chittagong area will cause impediment to power generation and fertilizer production in the region. Shangu production is going down.
Uranium shortage hits nuclear plans
India’s nuclear energy ambitions have hit a major roadblock as shortage of the raw material — uranium — is threatening new capacity addition and also affecting the performance of the existing plants.
Heat wave prompts TVA rate hike
TVA put an exclamation point after the worst heat wave in North Alabama history with its announcement Thursday that it would temporarily hike rates.Between October and December, Tennessee Valley Authority will bump electricity costs up by .432 cents per kilowatt hour, which it said will add between $3 and $6 to the typical bill for residential consumers.
The announcement comes as demand for electricity, largely to keep homes cool, is at an all-time high. Temperatures soared Thursday, topping 104 degrees and marking the ninth consecutive day of triple-digit heat.
Father of the compact fluorescent bulb looks back
Consumers with an eye to conserving energy may be snatching those swirly compact fluorescent bulbs off store shelves now, but 30 years ago they were barely a shade away from crazy.
Hurricane Dean likely to threaten Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Dean, which could strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane over the next two days, pounded the eastern Caribbean islands of Martinique and Dominica as it churned into the Caribbean Sea.And next week Dean will likely enter the Gulf of Mexico, threatening the region's oil and natural gas facilities, which account for roughly a third of U.S. oil production, the National Hurricane Center predicted.
Officials investigating fire at Pascagoula Chevron refinery
Chevron officials hope to know by Friday how much production at its largest U.S. refinery will be affected by an oil fire at the Pascagoula facility.
Defeating Depletion: Where should our focus be?
Solar and wind power are good alternatives. Denmark is the per-capita world leader when it comes to wind farming, with 18 percent of its power coming from wind power. But before we make an unqualified endorsement, bear in mind that the production of the components used to produce solar and wind power obviously does cause pollution.Still, while we have cheap fossil fuels at our disposal, we ought to be directing the energies that we have available from them towards massive worldwide investments in solar and wind power, but there is a catch.
United States: Energy in Flux: The 21st Century´s Greatest Challenge - What the shifting dynamics of energy mean for corporations, governments, society and the international community
Thirty-three years ago this autumn, a crisis in the Middle East sent the price of oil soaring overnight from $3 to $5 a barrel, and to $11 within three months. A gallon of gasoline, just 30 cents that summer, skyrocketed to $1.20. In the immediate aftermath of the Arab oil embargo, the Nixon administration took decisive action, extending Daylight Savings time, winning approval for the Trans-Alaskan pipeline, establishing automotive fuel standards—even banning gasoline sales on Sundays. Three decades later, a new energy crisis—again marked by doubling oil prices and metastatic troubles in the Middle East—is upon us. But the backdrop against which it occurs is more volatile and unpredictable than in 1973.
Agri-industrial complex is on the way out, activist says
Americans are becoming disenchanted with industrial agriculture and turning more to farmers markets and locally produced food, said author and activist Bill McKibben....He compared industrial agriculture to the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. "It's rotting from within, relying on subsidies from a central government and waiting for a shove to collapse," he said. "It can't continue to rely on cheap fossil fuels."
China's Nanpu Oil Find Shows Pitfalls of Estimating Reserves
The pitfalls of evaluating big oil finds were underlined this week when China's Ministry of Land and Resources certified PetroChina Co.'s Nanpu oil discovery as having half the reserves of market estimates.The Nanpu block in Bohai Bay's Jidong oil field in northern China was hailed by some analysts as the biggest find in China for decades after PetroChina said in May it could hold as much as 1 billion metric tons of oil equivalent, of which 405.07 million tons were classified as total proven reserves.
Although the proven reserves figure was revised up by 10% to 445 million tons by the ministry on Tuesday, analysts instead focused on the economically recoverable reserves estimate of 86.6 million tons, which is equivalent to 632 million barrels.
Arctic sea ice expected to hit record low
The extent of Arctic sea ice will likely have melted to a record low this September partially due to man-made greenhouse gas emissions, researchers at the University of Colorado said on Thursday.There is a 92 percent chance that Arctic sea ice extent in September will melt to its lowest level at least since the 1970s, when satellite measuring efforts began, the researchers said. They had predicted a 33 percent chance of a record low in April, but changed the forecast after a rapid disintegration of sea ice during July.
Japanese automakers settle with asthma patients
Asthma patients Friday welcomed a settlement with major Japanese automakers and the government resolving a long row over air pollution blamed for killing more than 100 people in Tokyo alone.
Australian scientists call for ocean network probe
Australian scientists want to string a vast array of probes across the oceans of the southern hemisphere to warn of changes in ocean circulation that may affect the global climate.
Scientists seek new ways to feed the world amid global warming
On an agricultural research station south of Manila a group of scientists are battling against time to breed new varieties of rice as global warming threatens one of the world's major sources of food.
Urban planning needs rethink as climate change looms
According to SIWI, "climate change combined with continuing population growth and expanding urban centres presents a recipe for disaster."Kuylenstierna suggested one measure would be to "move people from low-lying areas who live close to the rivers, close to the seas."
"These are attractive areas but maybe we have to finally understand we cannot only work against nature," he added.



A new Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.
TOD:Canada continues it's coverage of the developing credit crunch, looking at how the liqidity crisis is playing out in Canada and how the subprime problem in the UK could be even worse than in the US. The mood of the markets continues to be an important factor, causing risk premiums to skyrocket and liquidity to dry up almost overnight. The US dollar is emerging as a beneficiary of the flight to quality, while the yen appreciates due to the unwinding of the carry trade. A rash of hedge fund redemptions is expected at the end of the third quarter.
On the Canadian energy scene, Peter Lougheed warns that a constitutional showdown appears to be shaping up between Alberta and the federal government over development of the oil patch. Dalton McGuinty's decision to close the coal-fired power plants in Ontario is criticised as bad policy, while one municipality holds a voluntary blackout day.
Water remains an issue round the world, as does the evidence of accelerating climate change. Sovereignty, particularly in the Arctic, and security are also becoming more prominent.
Source: Minyanville
Headlines:
Iranian forces shell Iraq's Kurdistan region
Russia, China and Iran warn U.S. to stay out of Central Asia
Russia to Build AK-47 and Ammo Factories in Venezuela
Russian Military Returns to Soviet Bluster
Syria Drops Peg to U.S Dollar
The Post Peak Oil Historian
Russia is taking steps in the face of US policies that Russia considers threatening. It appears that Russia is anticipating decreased US influence in the Middle East after apparent defeat in Iraq. They are positioned to reopen a permanent military base in Syria and assert a naval presence in the area. The blowback from US Administration decisions over the passed 6 years is becoming more and more apparent.
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/simon_tisdall/2007/08/putins_power_p...
U.S. Marches Closer To War With Iran'
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IH18Ak04.html
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
'The Bush administration has leaped toward war with Iran by, in essence, declaring war with the main branch of Iran's military, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which it plans to brand as a terrorist organization.
A logical evolution of US President George W Bush's ill-defined, boundless "war on terror", the White House's move is dangerous to the core, opening the way for open confrontation with Iran. This
may begin in Iraq, where the IRGC is reportedly most active and, ironically, where the US and Iran have their largest common denominators.
A New York Times editorial has dismissed this move as "amateurish" and a mere "theatric" on the part of the lame-duck president, while at the same time admitting that it represents a concession to "conflict-obsessed administration hawks who are lobbying for military strikes". The political analysts who argue that the main impact of this initiative is "political" are plain wrong. It is a giant step toward war with Iran, irrespective of how well, or poorly, it is thought of, particularly in terms of its immediate and long-term implications, let alone the timing of it.'...snip...
'The US has "unfettered" itself for a strike on Iran by targeting the IRGC, and that translates into heightened security concerns. "The United States never branded the KGB [Russian secret service] or the Soviet army as terrorist, and that shows the limits of the Cold War comparison," the Tehran political scientist said. His only optimism: there are "two US governments" speaking with divergent voices, ie, "deterrence diplomacy and preemptive action", and "that usually, historically speaking, spells policy paralysis"...snip...
'No matter, the stage is now set for direct physical clashes between Iran and the US, which has blamed the death of hundreds of its soldiers on Iranian-made roadside bombs. One plausible scenario is the United States' "hot pursuit" of the IRGC inside Iranian territory, initially through "hit and run" commando operations, soliciting an Iranian response, direct or indirect, potentially spiraling out of control.
The hallucination of a protracted "small warfare with Iran" that would somehow insulate both sides from an unwanted big "clash of titans" is just that, a fantasy born and bred in the minds of war-obsessed hawks in Washington and Israel.'...snip...
There is a whole lot of hallucination behind the Bush administration's foreign policy. I keep hoping for adult supervision from that new Democratic majority but there is something holding them back. I think a nice shot of impeachment might clean things up a bit, but I fear Bush would totally act out if called to account.
So wait, you're saying that our innovative policy of Preemptive War and the PNAC's (Project for a New American Censure) desire to create an 'uncontestable US military' is going to have the perverse consequence of both Defining the terms of 'the conversation', as well as practically guaranteeing that someone will emerge with the 'equal and opposite reaction' that even simple physics would seem to predict?
Absurd!
Russia's foreign policy has almost as strong an element of unreality as does the United States foreign policy. Look at Russia. It has a horrible demographic problem and it is going to peak soon in oil production. Where does Putin get off thinking he can elevate the Russian position toward the rest of the world?
Arctic sea ice expected to hit record low ...
92% chance?
Record was already beaten days ago with one month of melting left. Both Area and extension records are history.
/sarconal on/
This is fantastic. Now we can forego repairs on the Alaska Pipeline. We can run tankers directly from Prudhoe Bay to New York/New Jersey via the IFNWP. (Ice Free North West Passage)
/sarconal off/
We can probably really do that now:
I think ship's props would still get too clogged up with Polar Bears.. but soon.
About one month of melting left ... we might even be able to do NE passage too.
Not visible from that rendering are the thousands of polar bears that are starving.
The polar bears are starving, the moose are under serious stress in Minnesota, the puffins are dying, and these are just the big/photogenic species that made the news in the last month or so.
http://www.northernwilds.com/press/shawn/moose-decline-merits-prio.shtml
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&add...
I saw an article a month or two ago - polar bears are so stressed they're coming to land to give birth and biologists ar starting to see polar/grizzly crosses in the wild.
Yeah, but as the dollar tanks, the tankers will head for Japan to get paid in Yen, just like the Iranians do. That's why president Cheney wants to burn Iran: he wants to eliminate their competition with his Halliburton-built North Poil Kingdom of the Future On Stilts. Once we merge with Canada ( http://www.infowars.net/articles/September2006/280906Union.htm ) it will be Us Against the Russkies again, battling and rattling icebreakers over the North.
A little more on Dean...
Stormtrack posted an update late last night. Dean was weaker than expected, but is expected to strengthen. Some models are predicting it will become a Cat. 5.
It's still way too early to determine where landfall will be, but I guess the worst case scenario for the oil industry would be the GFDL model, shown in blue here.
It sure looks to me like it's on the Canterell express.
We'll lose "our" million plus barrels a day, but because Boca Raton is safe, we'll celebrate and oil prices will fall.
Excuse my bitterness. I realize the Fed needs to bail out the banks, especially since this is where I've chosen to keep my money, but I just know the Billionaires of the world are popping champagne bottles everywhere at their triumph over Bernanke.
Who wants to go into business with me selling Greenspan Bubbles? "After a long day of lobbying your Senator for tax breaks, soak in a warm tub with Greenspan Bubbles! Wash that stench of the poor people away!"
The rich are not rich because they are smarter or cleverer -- though many of them are.
It's because they own the money machine.
The old aristocracy of rich landed gentry is gone, as is the "gift" economy of the North American tribes (Kwakiutl, etc.)
The successor to both: the "market economy" --in both its capitalist and "socialist" forms-- seems on track to being the most destructive agent on earth since the K-T boundary event bolide.
The coming dust-up with Iran will force China and India to choose "sides" -- and lo! WWI is living history.
We live in interesting times. I suppose there is a chance for this to come out better than it seems -- if people stop choosing the ways of abuse and violence. And for that to work, we have to give up fear.
Impressively worded, NLNG, a terse summary of the only two drivers of the market, greed and fear.
But if we are able to relinquish our fears personally or at community scale, what are the odds that nations ever will? How would leaders lead without cannon fodder?
It may be that we all have to wait for Armageddon and Jesus to return, or it may be that energy supplies will run out and the market economy will just be history after the manner of Tainter(http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Archaeology/dp/... ).
Or just possibly, the human brain can claw its way out of the fog of fear -- brain by brain -- and people will choose a different paradigm. They can't be forced to do it; that is for sure.
You know, there have probably been half a dozen hurricanes that struck the Yucatan in the last decade, very few of which went on to cause systemic problems with Cantrell. Lets not hype up the danger, shall we? Any hurricane that comes from the Carribean would have to cross over several hundred miles of land just to strike, and it wouldn't have enough time to power up again before it ran aground in Mexico for a second time.
In the other hand, if it slips through the slot between Yucatan & Cuba (as some models predict), then all the platforms off the TX coast will be sitting like bowling pins in front of a bowling ball. How many of those can stand up to a Cat 5? We may find out next week.
I'm talking about a Cantrell strike only. Of course, you took the opportunity to 'hype it up' even further by suggesting its going to strike the oil producing regions of Texas. Since when were you a weather man?
Many of the models have Dean doing just what WNC is suggesting. Suggesting is not hyping. All he did was to just point out, without claiming to be a weatherman, that there is this possibility, which there clearly is.
A lot of our pollyannas on TOD have been getting real touchy lately.
The new GFDL: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081712-dean04l&field...
Apparently you aren't a weatherman either, are you? Pay attention to the changing plots, and maybe take the log out of your own eye before you criticize the speck in someone else's.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
After it swamps Cozumel it will weaken and the leading edge won't do much but stir the surf off the western edge of the Yucatan. But again who knows.
It is days like this where we all get jumpy thinking of doom and gloom, or the other side, Non-doom and Non-gloom, or maybe a mix of the two, that we all get a little testy.
I have written disaster Sci-Fi for almost 30 years, mostly short stories, a few book length stories where aliens do a number on us and it is not ourselves that did it. I like watching "end of the world" type movies. I guess you can call me a Hard-Core doomer. But again we don't really know how it will all end up till after the dust settles. We only give our Personal "best guesses" with whatever our normal leanings are, doom or non-doom, or a mixture. Most people can't stay at the edge of their seats for more than a few days, really only a few hours without going a little nuts in the process.
If you find yourself wanting fuss and fume at someone, step back and don't post for a few minutes, let the steam burn off. It helps keep things civil around here.
Best wishes, Charles.
You guys both missed the biggest target. If this thing ploughs into OilmanBob's backyard and takes out Texas City, you might as well get out your bicycle.
> but I just know the Billionaires of the world are popping champagne bottles everywhere at their triumph over Bernanke.
I doubt that very much since despite the discount window rate cut, bond spreads continue to rise across the board. Real estate inventories are still climbing, as well as deliquencies and forclosures. Lending standard are still tighting and new LBOs are coming a fading memory. In the grand scheme, its meaningless.
A Truck Stop Perspective
Yet another truck driver, shut down for the night. He looked like Mr. Clean, minus the earrings. He took a seat in one of the booths as I was helping a customer. The customer left, and I remarked, "I'm amazed that people with bank cards still don't know how to use them at the pump!" I was frustrated because I'd had a day full of high-maintenance customers (you know who you are).
"I avoid credit cards like the plague," said Mr. Clean after the customer left. "It's just a means to track you and control you."
Okay, I thought, another nut-job. They come in all shapes and sizes on the interstate. But still, I couldn't resist. "What makes you say that?"
He looked at me in a direct way, as if taking my measure. "When the economy collapses, they are going to tighten everything down to control the population." He looked out the window serenely, as if what he said was obvious to anyone but an idiot.
I paused, wondering where he was coming from. I decided on an oblique approach. "I hope you're wrong, but the feces is going to hit the fan soon."
Mr. Clean turned his pale gaze back on me and smiled wolfishly. "Yeah, I think so. And the Mexicans are being set up to take the blame."
I pondered this as I help the next batch of customers. What the hell? I thought.
"What the hell?" I said as the customers (thankfully not Mexican) trailed out the door. "I know there's a lot of finger-pointing at the Mexicans, but you can't pin it all on them!" I didn't like what he was saying, but I sensed he might be on to something.
"Sure." He made his hands into a steeple, his elbows on the table. "It's not me doing it. It's the Establishment."
"Listen," I said rather heatedly, "there's gonna be a whole lotta people coming up from Mexico in the next few years, like it or not, and they're willing to work. Seems to me that's what this country was built on."
"Oh yeah, I agree. But they're gonna take the fall."
A new batch of customers stole my attention, and I didn't notice when Mr. Clean left. But his words echoed in my head for a long time...
I think about that, too. I have a feeling it could get very bad, even for legal immigrants.
McCain complained yesterday that his stance on immigration is killing him. The other politicians have noticed, no doubt, and see it as a warning shot across the bow.
Your truckstop perspectives are great. It shows the general population has the feeling something is brewing, but cannot pinpoint what it is exactly.
And, yeah, when oil exports from Mexico dry up and an "emergency influx of immigrants" make it across the border, they will for sure get blamed for a lot of problems.
I am living with my parents. When we got here 30 years ago it was all white. About 10 years later more blacks started moving into the area. Now it is a mixture of White, Black and Hispanic. Down the road in the Area's center (Levy is the Area, one of those small towns that got swallowed about 70 years ago to form North Little Rock) there are half a dozen store fronts in spanish, very little english in the signs until you get inside. Mom and Pop places, when I get extra money to go out to eat I show up and order things. Being a Chef I also grocery shop a lot in the ethnic shops, and like the prices of fresh produce in these mom and pops a lot better than at Wal-Mart. Plus the produce is treated right and I get better product. Wal-mart or Kroger's think soft and spongy Jicamas are still usable, the hispanic stores the Jicamas never stay out that long, and are priced way lower than the so-called cheaper Wal-mart.
The USA proud to call itself a melting pot, is just going to boil over with scapegoating soon, which is what has generally happened in the past, but this time it is going to come at a time when we really REALLY need to be working together to make it through the next hurdle.
My hispanic nieghbors know me. And I won't blame them for anything more than I'd blame anyone else.
Edit. Ps. Jicama is a root crop grown from Texas- to the Tropics, Lots of good uses and stays crunchy even after cooking, one of the best snack veggies I have found, kids love it.
Misfit, great post, thanks. I find it astonishing how many people, like your Mr. Clean, think there is some grand conspiracy behind everything. Nothing, they believe, could simply be as it seems to be on the surface. Some evil force, they believe, is conspiring against us all. Bad things are always caused by bad people, how could it be otherwise?
There must be some psychological phenomenon that explains all this, some innate characteristic of the human psyche. I haven't a clue as to what it is however.
Ron Patterson
There is, and it's not just human. It's been observed in rats and other mammals as well.
The mammalian brain was made to see patterns. That's why, in most ways, we are smarter than the fastest computer. Seeing patterns lets us take shortcuts that pure logic won't allow.
The drawback is we sometimes see patterns that do not exist. Moreover, we need that illusion of control and predictability that the patterns, real or not, provide. They've done some fascinating experiments with rats, dogs, etc. They go crazy if you shock them at random. But if there's some kind of pattern - a light flashing first, say - they're fine.
Anxiety is the state of impending loss of control. Present in all mammals, of course but highly expressed in human beings. Manipulation of anxiety allows the controllers -- whatever the government may be, and there is always some government-- to remain in control. Modern technology has honed this to a fine art, and whether Ron Patterson believes there is a "conspiracy" or not, there is definitely a meeting of certain minds at the upper echelons of government, corporate governance and media. One might say they "breathe together" even if they don't conspire.
Yes: a "respiracy," not a conspiracy. In Econ they call it informal collusive oligopoly.