DrumBeat: September 22, 2007
Posted by Leanan on September 22, 2007 - 9:35am
Topic: Miscellaneous
$80 oil price no fluke to analysts
Michael Economides, an oil expert at the University of Houston, said the market has become largely desensitized to upward movement.Also, politically volatile yet oil-rich countries that have squeezed foreign access to their resources, like Venezuela and Russia, could restrict access further to maintain high oil prices, he said.
"The price of oil is on its way to $100. I am convinced," Economides said.
OPEC sees oil prices offsetting weak dollar
The surge in oil prices to record highs will shield OPEC nations, some of which peg their currencies to the US dollar, from current dollar weakness, a Saudi newspaper quoted OPEC sources as saying on Saturday.
Mexico Ruling Party Rejects Dialogue with Guerrillas
The president of the Mexican Senate rejected on behalf of the governing rightist National Action Party a proposal that the legislature should initiate a dialogue with a guerrilla group that bombed fuel pipelines to press for the safe return of two comrades the rebels say are in government hands.
Gas prices hit rock bottom for utilities
It was like buying a $400 iPhone for $4, or a Big Mac for 3 cents. Colorado Springs Utilities hit on a unique bonanza this week when events converged to sink natural gas prices to the lowest point in a generation.Gas, which normally trades at $3 to $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtus) this time of year, sold for 2.6 cents starting Monday. An average home uses about 430 MMBtus per year.
“In my lifetime, I don’t remember ever seeing anything like that,” Utilities CEO Jerry Forte told the Utilities board on Wednesday. “Gas was sold for whatever you wanted to pay for it.”
Much as the world was riveted by the recent collapse of a highway bridge in the U.S. state of Minnesota, Matthew Simmons fears it may soon be riveted by an energy pipeline or refinery disaster.Simmons, one of the critical thinkers whose innovative ideas form the basis of EnergyTechStocks.com’s new series on how to meet the challenge of rising global energy demand, said the United States needs to wake up – and fast – to the fact that much of its energy infrastructure is in as bad shape as many of its bridges.
The corn-based ethanol industry is a disaster in the making and it must be reined in before it causes major damage to the farm industry.
Iran exhibits homemade weapons in show of force
Iran showed off homemade armaments today at annual army celebrations meant to highlight the oil-rich nation's military self-sufficiency and prowess in the face of international sanctions and U.S. hostility.
Russia says it will invest more oil wealth in its economy
The Russian government said Friday that it would invest more of its oil wealth directly into the economy, mainly in infrastructure, as it sought to maintain its longest expansion since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Rising oil prices are continuing to support Saudi Arabia’s foreign asset accumulation, according to published reports.The Arab News, citing SABB’s Q4-2007 report, said Saudi Arabia’s foreign assets in the hands of Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency would break the SR1 trillion mark as of 2007, having grown by SR16.17 billion per month on average so far this year, which could support any future pressure which might be exerted on the Saudi riyal.
1,000 leading Chinese enterprises ordered to meet global energy standards
Under the program, China's 1,000 largest domestic enterprises are required to meet global energy efficiency requirements and take the lead in the field domestically as part of the country's endeavors to reduce energy consumption.
Weekly Offshore Rig Review: Construction Conscious
We recently spent some time examining the relative ages of the different segments of the offshore rig fleet by type and by manager. As an extension of that information, this week's offshore rig review focuses on the construction trends and costs that have shaped the competitive rig fleet over that last 30 years and those that are shaping it today.
As U.S. Gen. David Patraeus makes the rounds of Washington reporting on the status of the Iraq war, here’s a startling forecast of the political and energy future for that crucial region of the world from George Friedman, noted political scientist and head of the private intelligence firm Stratfor.Friedman told EnergyTechStocks.com that he anticipates the U.S. will withdraw its troops from Iraq, sending some home but redeploying others in a newly-created demilitarized zone (DMZ) along the border between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, just inside Iraq. The purpose of this DMZ, which would stretch down into a big U.S. base in Kuwait, would be to protect Saudi Arabia – and its oilfields – from any attempt by Iran to exert political or possibly even military influence over the Saudis.
Throw away all those theories and formulas. Even the mighty OPEC is baffled by the continued record-breaking rises in oil prices, even as it insists that its little black book says there is enough oil being pumped out of the ground to cover what is being consumed by the world’s economies.
Nuclear energy to be key in low-carbon energy policy: Brussels
Nuclear power will remain a key element as the world seeks to move toward low carbon energy, the European Commission said Friday, announcing a new forum for nuclear energy research.
China to Tap Global Uranium for Nuclear Expansion
China plans to tap the global uranium market to feed the rapid expansion of its nuclear power sector, a top economic planner said on Thursday, although strong demand for the metal has pushed prices above historical levels.
Flynn sees the price of oil rising to $120 a barrel and gasoline in the United States selling for $5.50 a gallon within five years, as commodity markets respond to the historic and ongoing global increase in oil demand being fuelled largely by China. “Even the International Energy Agency can’t keep up with demand. I don’t think China knows itself” how fast its need for oil is growing, Flynn said.
Phil Flynn: Hey, Uncle Sam – Stop Picking on Big Oil! (Part 2 of 3)
Noted energy analyst Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading is certain that America’s energy problems are best solved by letting markets work without government interference. But if government simply must butt in, Flynn says the worst thing it could do is what many in Washington seem inclined to do: punish the oil industry through higher taxes.
BP Returning to Normal Operations in Gulf After Storm Passes
BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, said it was returning to normal operations in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after evacuating personnel who were under threat of a potentially dangerous storm.
$80 Oil Boosts Service Cos' Stocks, But No Milestone
Although $40 oil ushered in an era of skyrocketing project costs in 2004 and $60 oil turned a rig shortage into a famine a year later, $80 oil isn't likely to have the same transformative effect.
The development of wind power promises much in terms of providing us with renewable energy for the future and wind turbines could be the most effective way to harness that power. Danish researchers now suggest that in order to assess the overall environmental impact of wind power, however, the finite lifespan of wind turbines and the need to replace and recycle them must be taken into account. Such an assessment will help policy makers and the industry to develop the green credentials of wind power more effectively.
Canada: Losing Water Through NAFTA
Under the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada lost control over its energy resources. Now, with "NAFTA-plus", it could also lose control over its freshwater resources, say experts....Under NAFTA rules, Canada cannot reduce its energy exports to the United States, according to Gordon Laxer, director of the Parkland Institute, a research network at the University of Alberta. "The U.S. is the most energy wasteful nation on Earth. And Canada is sacrificing its environment to feed America's addiction to oil," Laxer said in an interview.
"Respected energy analyst Matthew Simmons told me Canada should stop furthering the U.S. addiction to liquid fuels and make it illegal to use fresh water in tar sands," said Nikiforuk.
Rapeseed biofuel ‘produces more greenhouse gas than oil or petrol’
A renewable energy source designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is contributing more to global warming than fossil fuels, a study suggests.
Uganda: Forecast for 2008 - Famine, Floods, Fear And Fighting
At the beginning of August as the rainy season started, the United Nations' Food and Agricultural Organisation, in a report, spoke optimistically about the prospects for a good food harvest in several countries of West Africa.Sure enough the rain came. But this was not rain. It was something maniacal. When you start getting 12 inches of rain in a week, it becomes the worst of nightmares. In this case, they are worst nightmares in living memory for Africa.
Kenya: Anger Over Petrol Pump Price Increase
The Motorists Association of Kenya is against this week's increases in petrol pump prices....Speaking to The Standard, the association's chairman, Mr Peter Murima said if the global prices were to determine the local prices, it should be reflected in the local pumps when the prices come down.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd to create movie halls at petrol pumps
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) has launched a pilot project to construct cinema halls at its petrol pumps along national highways, as part of a strategy to derive 30 per cent of its revenues from non-fuel sales....Says George Paul, general manager, says that gradually, BPCL's petrol pumps are becoming happening places, and the company needs to leverage its customers for non-fuel revenues, which offset a large degree of risk that arises from government administered fuel prices which are later compensated by the ministry through issue of oil bonds.
Dominican Republic: Gas prices on the up
The Industry and Commerce Ministry has announced new increases in fuel prices as a result of the high oil prices on the international market.
Dominican Republic: Fuel prices a national problem - official
The government says that the increases in fuel prices represents “a real problem” for the Dominican Republic, and that this is exacerbated by the fact that there are no medium-term contingency plans to deal with the situation.
Tunisian pottery industry struggles to stay competitive
When asked about the impact of the smoke on the village, Rachid said with complete confidence, "All research and studies conducted by the region confirmed that the materials we use—primarily dried wood—do not damage the environment at all. However, there are greedy craftsmen who, due to its lower cost, use plastic to fuel their kilns, but when the monitoring agency gets hold of them, they pay a heavy fine."
Witnesses: Monks protest near Suu Kyi house
The monks' activities have given new life to a protest movement that began a month ago after the government raised fuel prices, triggering demonstrations against policies that are causing economic hardship.The number of protesters Saturday indicated that the anti-government protests were growing.
Businesses flip-flop on electricity deregulation
As Allegheny Technologies weighs its options, company officials have been up front about what they consider to be the biggest strike against Pennsylvania: electricity deregulation.It wasn't supposed to be this way. In the 1990s, industrial energy customers such as Allegheny Technologies were among the first and most forceful advocates of ending the state's traditional regulatory control over the electric industry. They wanted prices to be determined by market forces.
Paper or plastic? Retailers struggle with fees as customers increasingly use bank cards over cash
Tedeschi Food Shops typically would make a profit of 2 cents on a $3 gallon of gas, but transaction fees gobble up 9 cents per gallon, causing shops to oftentimes lose money on gasoline sales, Tedeschi said...."This is the second-largest expense to a gas merchant (after the cost of fuel)."
An unsteady economy, rising costs for fuel and other essential living expenses, plus a deepening national mortgage and foreclosure crisis, have pushed many households into insolvency, experts say. The resurgence comes after filings dropped sharply following a 2005 run-up in bankruptcy cases prior to a tightening of rules."They're back up - people are struggling," said Nancy Jacob, a debtor's lawyer in Dent whose small practice filed six new cases this past week.
Richard Heinberg on Financial Sense Newshour (audio)
The September 22, 2007 edition of Financial Sense Newshour features an interview with Richard Heinberg, author of Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines.It's in the second hour. MP3, RealMedia, and Windows Media formats available.
Taking Cues From Fed, Speculators Bid Up Oil
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may have cooled off the credit crisis by cutting interest rates, but he may also have heated up oil prices this week.For seven consecutive business days, crude oil prices have hit new highs. Even after dropping slightly yesterday, crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange finished the week at $81.62 a barrel, up a third since Jan. 1 and not far short of the inflation-adjusted peak set in January 1981, when Saddam Hussein's Iraq was at war with Iran.
Selling America In Exchange for Oil
What's driving the price of oil? You can point to many culprits, including rising demand from China, India and other emerging industrial countries. But you can also hang a big part of the blame on President Bush and the Congress.
A $7 billion gamble on oil refining
Motiva Enterprises made a huge bet Friday that America's appetite for gasoline will keep growing well into the future, giving final approval to a $7 billion expansion of its Port Arthur refinery that will make it the largest in the nation.The decision came after more than three years of study by Motiva, a joint venture of Royal Dutch Shell and Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, and after a jolt in costs doubled the project's price tag.
With the move, two of the world's biggest oil companies have signaled their belief that petroleum-based fuels are here to stay despite the growth of biofuels like ethanol and calls to curb U.S. gasoline use.
SEC files complaint against 'Sweet 16' oilman
A new federal lawsuit reveals more information about the finances of a Kentucky oilman who investors say swindled them out of millions at the same time he was throwing his daughter an extravagant 16th birthday party on a reality TV show.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said in a complaint filed last week in a Kentucky federal court that Gary Milby spent millions of investors' money on vehicles and personal trust funds.
Nobel conference to focus on energy
Global warming and oil depletion are the twin specters of fossil fuels, said Timothy Robinson, psychology professor and conference director.A longtime voice on global warming, NASA climatologist James Hansen developed the scientific basis for the argument that rising carbon dioxide levels are stimulating the greenhouse effect. He’s one of seven speakers at the conference.
...Oil depletion — more commonly known as peak oil — will be tackled by Kenneth Deffeyes, professor emeritus of geosciences at Princeton University. The hypothesis gets it name from the belief that oil extraction will eventually “peak” at a certain date and decline thereafter.
Russia warns war with Iran would block oil flows
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Friday that any attempt to wage war on Iran could disrupt the flow of oil to Western countries and prompt a flow of refugees to Russia.
Peak Oil Passnotes: The Only Way Is Up
U.S. crude inventories have dropped 10 weeks in a row to leave the U.S. looking increasingly exposed to any spurt in demand or outages on the market over the winter months. Add to this the slow crawl back to full capacity of the U.S. refining system, ready to suck up more and more crude oil, and one can see continued tightness in U.S. markets to the end of the year.Meanwhile any hope that increased OPEC output will come to the rescue may prove to be short lived. It appears that the 500,000 barrel per day increase proposed by the cartel is not actually 500,000 barrels per day, but something far less. As we all know, OPEC does not stick to its quotas and this occasion seems no different.
Russia to deliver fuel oil to DPRK: senior diplomat
Russia will deliver fuel oil to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in November, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said Friday."Moscow will meet its commitments and deliver fuel oil," Losyukov said after China announced Friday the six-party talks on the Korean Peninsular nuclear issue will resume in Beijing from Sept. 27 to Sept. 30.
Scramble for the seabed: or how Rockall could be the key to a British oil bonanza
Britain is poised to get much bigger. South Africa, Russia, France, Brazil, Australia and Ireland are hoping to expand too. In fact, 45 countries with coastlines qualify for potential "extended underwater territory" rights under the new UN Law of the Sea Convention.This new law, due to come into force in a few years time, has provoked a scramble for underwater land almost as fierce as the one for Africa in the 19th century when European countries divided up the continent between them.
Deal reached on cutting ozone-damaging emissions
Delegates from almost 200 countries agreed late on Friday to eliminate ozone-depleting substances faster than originally planned, the United Nations said.
Pope to make climate action a moral obligation
The Pope is expected to use his first address to the United Nations to deliver a powerful warning over climate change in a move to adopt protection of the environment as a "moral" cause for the Catholic Church and its billion-strong following.
Re: Pope to make climate action a moral obligation
I hope that the Pope will mention the need to limit population, perhaps even reduce population to deal with Climate Change and Peak Oil. Any bets?
E. Swanson
This, along with Ahmadinejad, would make the UN an NSSE.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
the Pope authority shrinks as it is (muslims grow faster than catolics)
Which is why the pope discourages condoms. We can't have the catholics being out-breeded by the Muslims.
The best way to encourage people NOT to procreate is to educate them. The more educated a person is, the less likely that they're going to have 8 children.
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)
Your assumption is that "education" equals western education and values. The Islamic empire was the most educated and most powerful empire of its time, but its core values differed very markedly from our own. Other societies have been very knowledgeable yet had very different structures than our own because of core value differences.
"Education" is a loaded euphemism that other societies may not choose to embrace. Now I agree that if other societies embrace western values and thinking that this does appear to create social conditions that reduce population growth. But no one has proven that this adoption is inevitable. There is only a near-universal assumption that this mode of thinking and this set of social values should predominate. And even funnier, this usually comes from the very people who promote "multi-culturalism" which leaves me wondering exactly what the heck is so "multi" about "cultures" that all have the same values and thinking processes, other than their ethnic and racial differences (which is exactly what TPTB tries to focus on to keep people apparently divided while the common value system is what keeps them controlled).
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Actually, the issue of education relates specifically to women--According to several UN agencies, FAO, UNICEF, etc., providing women with a rudimentary 6th grade level of education results in 50% less fertility almost imediately, with even larger gains overtime. "Higher levels of women's education are strongly associated with both lower infant mortality and lower fertility, as well as with higher levels of education and economic opportunity for their children." http://www.unfpa.org/gender/empowerment.htm
Hi karlof 1, Giving women (and men and children) a better slice of the economic pie could be even more effective. Anyway giving women a better education is just a bit of that isn't it? Give a bunch of people their own land back with a good chief and a good witch doctor and maybe they would blow those UN Stats off the wall?
The state of the world is the result of Western education, maybe we should try something else?
what if you ("american public") are "educated" by advertising, ............buy....consume.....marry and reproduce.......do not question authority......move to a vinyl sided three car garage house in the treeless 'burbs........drive an suv.......consume. c. o. n. s. u. m. e............c o n s u m e...........C O N S U M E................. c o n s u m e
Not in Latin America. There are 500 million mostly Catholics south of the US with a huge growth rate in population. The issue isn't religeous, but grinding poverty combined with gender repression of women causes unrestrained population growth. Plus sex ! There's no population growth without it.
.Bob Ebersole
Evangelicals have made huge strides in Latin America - small family? OK. Enrich yourself? That is OK, too. Sorry, no links, saw it on Tee Vee in an airport or something, but as I recall it was something like 30% of the total population. I found it a bit surprising ...
SacredCowTipper,
Its true about evangelicals, in particular the Pentecostals are getting more prevalent both here and there. Its for a number of reasons, but one of the biggies is divorce.
Catholics excommunicate people who remarry after getting a divorce without church approval (an annulment) but adultery is just a garden variety sin. So when Papa moves out or gets a 20 year old mistress to replace Mama whose face and figure have been ruined by too many kids and a poor diet along with natural wrinkling, Mama's stuck. If she divorces him she can't go to heaven and has no power over Papa with the children grown, so she joins a church where divorce for adultry is possible.
In Latin America thats often the pentecostals, because their preachers are "called", or self-appointed after a few bible courses. Catholics have very few priests for the population, often as low as 1:10,000. Even in the US its 1:3,000. The pentecostals have perhaps 1:200 as a preacher to worshiper ratio. And, Latino society is matriarchal in many ways, where momma goes to church, the family goes to church Bob Ebersole
yeah, those pentecostals ..........rolling around on the floor......speaking in tongues ......holy rollers for short
The Holy See to push population control? FOMALOL...
How fast can the USA electrify Freight Railroads ?
One of the best rail consultants (John Schumann of LTK) gave me about $500 of his time (LONG phone call).
Conclusion, under "maximum commercial urgency" (example Canadian tar sands) we would have the equivalent of five large Class I RRs (UP, BNSF, N-S, CSX & one combo (CN, CP+DME, KCS, FEC).
Best case:
Year 1 = 0 miles
Year 2 - 500 miles x 5
Year 3 - 1,000 miles x 5
Year 4 - 1,500 miles x 5
Year 5 - 2,000 miles x 5
Year 6 - 2,500 miles x 5
Year 7 - 2,500 miles x 4.5 (some RRs may begin to run out of good candidates to electrify)
France made the commitment in 2006 to electrify EVERY branch line and switchyard in twenty years.
The Strategic Rail Corridor Network (STRACNET) is 32,500 miles and would make a good estimate of a very good electric rail backbone (I would add CN former Ill. Central Memphis to Chicago)
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/stracnet.htm
The only map of Stracnet that I found is at
http://homeland.vmi.edu/Agenda/Agenda.htm
Download 1:30 Presentation PowerPoint.
We wandered off topic onto SBB (Swiss Federal Railroads). GREAT management, superb maintenance. US RRs are maxed out at about 100 trains/day for a double track with the best controls (allow movement both directions on both tracks). SBB plans to run up to 300 trains/day (WIDELY varying speeds, much more than USA, shorter trains, up to 1.5 km long) through double track tunnels.
Best Hopes,
Alan
In the bath yesterday I was thinking maybe we could re-purpose all our gigantic SUVs as small, personal light rail cars. Although, where would people go to the bathroom?
It often seems to me there might be a hybrid or compromise that may help us get where we need to go.
If not, at least we have all that metal(in the vehicles) dug up, refined and recylable. Better than having to mine it in the first place I suppose.
Recipient of AA, Alberta Advantage
Two things.
The STRACNET misses the "Cotton Belt Route".
Now run by UP, it's a high speed track, double in alot of places. At least one train every 1/2 hour.
This article:
http://www.tsha.utexas.edu/publications/journals/shq/online/v035/n2/cont...
might interest you.
James
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
STRACNET is designed for military movements. Vital civilian tracks can, and are overlooked.
None-the-less, IMHO STRACNET provides a good analytical framework for electrification analysis of main lines. The needed gaps missing from STRACNET appear to be only a couple of thousand miles long.
STRACNET = 32,500 miles
If we electrify, double/triple track and largely grade separate 35,000 miles of railroads, we should be able to move over 90% of our inter-city freight ton-miles with non-oil transportation (plus quite a few people). (
I am thinking of half this distance being rebuilt like the CSX proposal for Miami to DC, grade separated, 2 tracks general freight @ 50 to 70 mph, 1 (Richmond-Miami) & 2 (Richmond-DC) tracks max 110 mph passenger service + high value light & medium density freight.
"Last mile" by inter-modal truck or diesel railroad spurs.
35,000 miles is significantly less than the 48,000+ miles of Interstate Highways.
Unfortunately, this approach limits competition (one good, grade separated, electrified rail line + one old line in most of the country).
Best Hopes,
Alan
Alan,
I am not a naysayer and perhaps I missed it but where is the additional grid
capacity to electrify the rail system going to come from? It is my understanding
that the U.S. electrical grid is woefully outdated based on decades of under
investment.
http://www.energetics.com/gridworks/grid.html
The electrified rail corridors would make excellent new transmission corridors as well (typically 100' wide).
Electrified rail is VERY energy efficient. 0.19% of USA electricity drives the NYC, Philly, DC, Boston, Chicago, Atlanta, etc subways plus all light rail plus Amtrak's NorthEast Corridor plus the Long Island RR plus a few GEMs. etc.
About 6% or 7% (roughly x35 as much) would make a significant difference in US oil consumption and be = to about 3 years growth in demand (recession + conservation could free up that much).
Best Hopes,
Alan
When any electrical cabling is done, it would make sense to install fibre optic data cables as well, the cost savings would be huge. The UK tunnels are too short to have double decker trains, (they work really well in Europe) whats the situation like in the US.
Many major US rail lines are now routes for fiber-optic cables. Amtrak's Boston to NY to Wash. DC line had these installed many years ago and so have other eastern lines.
Most US routes were improved for double stack container trains by lowering tracks under bridges and in tunnels, though some places went from two tracks to one to get max clearance in middle of bridge or tunnel.
Major problem for expansion of US roads is capacity. And many communities have opposed improving trackage to handle more trains. Rochester MN has opposed the expansion plans of the DM&E RR that wanted to haul coal to provide a shorter route (by over 100 miles) to Minneapolis. I believe the city's lawsuit went all the way to US supreme court in fighting the RR. Union Pacific and BNSF RR's have fought several legal battles in trying to add tracks to their single track transcontinental lines in New Mexico and Texas. I can imagine thousands of NIMBY lawsuits by communities that don't want more trains and the "ugly: electric lines in their "pristine" towns and cities.
Mark S. Bucol
mbnewtrain, we are now importing 12.19 million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids a day, according to Rembrandt Koppelar's keypost on theoildrum.europe this week, and this is about 2/3rds of our total oil use. About 70% of the oil use is for gasoline and diesel (Stuart Staniford, several different posts), and we also import around 5 million barrels of finished gasoline and diesel.
Besides being about to bankrupt us, we are getting about 70% of that 70% from countries that hate us. Of our importers, only Canada and Mexico can be thought of as stable and liking anything about the US. UK, Holland and Norway sell us some gasoline, but no crude to speak of
Half of our oil imporst come from Venezuela (14.47%), Saudi Arabia (11.825%, Nigeria (8.81%) and a whole slew of other countries. Thats about 1/2 of our oil supply. Yes we have a billion barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but are facing massive economic dislocation and military problems if there is another embargo, there isn't enough crude for another war.
This is the biggest national security problem. A few thousand terrorists is dwarfed by our vulnerability as a nation to an embargo. How does the modern miltary fight without diesel and jet fuel? The correct answer is not at all if they have to walk and carry ammunition. What are we going to do? We can't even manage to keep thir flows at half level, 2 million bbls a day with over 300 thousand troops and mercenaries in Iraq and we have no other option. Nuclear weapons are not going to preserve oil installations, so they're out.
As far as I'm concerned every president since Jimmy Carter is a traitor for ignoring this problem, and we can't let it go any further. Its insane to have half our transportation dependent on countries that hate us.
Alan's electrification of rail program is the only fairly painless way of dealing with the import problem. We need to adopt it now.
Not in my back card folks sometimes just don't get a choice.
Bob Ebersole
I can imagine thousands of NIMBY lawsuits by communities that don't want more trains and the "ugly: electric lines in their "pristine" towns and cities
I know someone involved with the electrification of Amtrak's New Haven CN to Boston line (end of DC to Boston NorthEastCorridor) and community push back added several years. More political (Amtrak congressional pressure) than legal.
Most lines are not in communities as sensitive as that area fortunately.
Still, the US Constitution gives control of Interstate Commerce to the US Gov't. A law supporting electrification passed by the US Congress could simply this kickback. And most rail lines are not through high end developed areas.
Best Hopes for the Common Good,
Alan
It's called "railroading" for a reason.
There you are.
The guy is right. The Electric grid will be fractured at best.
The Unnruly Power Grid is a must read.
It's going down with Peak Oil.
Power Laws apply, I'm sure.
We're going to go with something to provide
electricity to the transmission on the train
itself.
Union Pacific takes on Cotton Belt Ways:
http://www.uprr.com/customers/intermodal/featured/streak.shtml
The Blue Streak already has its roots in success -- as a continuation of the proud name that pioneered the intermodal market. The Blue Streak operated for over 60 years as a premier train for the Cotton Belt, St. Louis Southwestern, and Southern Pacific railroads. We are proud of the rich history of this service, and the benefits it brings to coast-to-coast intermodal transportation.
And there will be no difference between Military
and Civilian.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
I'm more interested in the MS River between St Louis and
NO.
And the rail bridges crossing the River.
There are 5, maybe?
St Louis, Memphis, Vicksburg, BR, and the Huey P. Long
In order to cross the Mississippi River, while enabling large vessels to pass underneath, trains begin a long, slow climb from the near sea-level swamps of southern Louisiana, two miles away from the river itself. The structure that allows this is part of the longest railway bridge in the US.
My first point is that all rails should be moved N of Lake Pontchartrain.
The second is that we're going into Peak with what we have right now.
If it's not funded and being constructed, it ain't goin' thru.
An aside. My hometown area -about 11 miles radius
had more rail terminals than any other in the state of Arkansas, including Little Rock. Circa 1920.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Alan, you're the best. I'd love to buy you a beer sometime.
Best hopes for Swedish and American (ie. Samuel Adams) quality beer!
I like Abita Amber beer (and their new one with pecan nuts added :-) a local Louisiana beer. But I am VERY willing to try Swedish beer, it is hopefully better than Brennivín (Black Death) and hákarl !
Best Hopes for Good Beer ! and less rotting shark
Alan
RE: 'Russia warns war with Iran would block oil flows'
To bad shrub doesnt read...but he recently made the comment...'the markets will just have to deal with it'...
Guess he figures since our economy is headed for the toilet anyway, now is as good a time as any to start the dance...
If vader and shrub attack Iran the world will be FUBAR.
If one looks at things as some form of confidence game, having an event to 'blame' for the performance of "The free market" - what better way than a nice, expanding fight that cuts off the oil.
I noticed that Shell and Saudi Aramco are significantly expanding their refinery in Texas, which some analysts have cited as "proof" that we are nowhere close to Peak Oil. Why would an oil company expand a refinery--especially a refinery in an importing country--if they knew that we were close, or past, the peak of world oil production?
Why did Shell expand their surface production facilities in the Yibal Field, to handle an expected increase in oil production, just before the water cut started increasing dramatically?
Perhaps the common theme here is that they discounted the early warning signs of falling production--perhaps it's something as simple as cognitive dissonance. When confronted with data that contradict their worldview, many people respond with an even more forceful effort to persuade people that they are right.
Researchers have cited the examples of space alien cultists who, when the aliens fail to show up on a predicted date, respond by trying even more forcefully to persuade people that the aliens are coming. I realize that many people would describe Peak Oilers as "cultists," but the irony is that guys like Peter Huber (who literally believes that our energy consumption will increase practically forever) are considered mainstream, while scientists who believe that a physical world has physical limits are considered to be the cultists.
2004 NYT article:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A04E1D91438F93BA35757C0A...
OMAN'S OIL YIELD LONG IN DECLINE, SHELL DATA SHOW
By JEFF GERTH AND STEPHEN LABATON
Published: April 8, 2004
Alternative explanation:
Aramco will be exporting some oil for decades. They will supply oil to Aramco owned (100% or partially) refineries first, capturing the value added.
KSA exports will need to decline dramatically to get to the point where they cannot keep their refineries busy.
Alan