DrumBeat: September 28, 2007
Posted by Leanan on September 28, 2007 - 9:03am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: pakistan electricity [list all tags]
Record coal prices hammer power generators
Record high coal prices and tight supply are piling the pressure on electricity generators already hit by soaring oil markets and high gas prices, industry players say...."I do believe that before the end of the year it's possible that some generators in Asia will have to look at turning off their plants because they won't have enough coal," said a coal producer.
Conoco files month-long L.A. refinery flare notice
West Coast refined products traders said the notice could be an indication of an overhaul planned for a unit or units at the Los Angeles refinery in October.
Hovensa Shuts Catalytic Cracker at Virgin Islands Refinery
Hovensa LLC, the second-biggest gasoline exporter to the U.S, shut the fluid catalytic cracker at its Virgin Islands refinery today to repair a wet gas scrubber.
UN: Thirty-five years to half-extinction
At the United Nations' climate change conference this month, experts painted a grim picture for the future of our planet. If humans don't act within the next 5 to 10 years, they warned, not only will we cause the extinction of many of the world's vital species, but in the end, we will be wiped off the earth ourselves.
UK: Timetable set to phase out high-energy light bulbs
A bid to phase out all high-energy light bulbs on sale in British shops was announced by the Government today.Environment Secretary Hilary Benn said he wanted to see the energy wasting bulbs start to disappear from the shelves in January and phased out by 2011.
President Hugo Chávez, who made diverting oil profits to the poor a hallmark of his administration, is faced with a series of corruption scandals that are threatening to undermine the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Norway boosts antigraft rules for oil industry
Oil-rich Norway leant its support on Thursday to a global effort to rub out corruption in the oil, gas and mining industries, and a leading corruption-buster said he hoped other countries would follow suit.
IT IS a thinly populated slice of Atlantic coast backed by a large tract of rainforest. But Guyana reckons it may have struck riches, thanks to a decision by a United Nations tribunal on September 20th. This awarded most of a disputed area of sea to Guyana rather than its neighbour, Suriname. “Think Kuwait,” dreamed an upbeat foreign diplomat.
Fact or Fiction?: Black Is Better than White for Energy-Efficient Screens
Before you tune out and turn off, you should know that black isn't necessarily the new green. Because computer monitors come in a variety of shapes and sizes, and not all monitors create black and white the same way, there's no proof that, on the whole, an increased use of black images would save more energy than the continued use of white images. In fact in newer liquid-crystal display, or LCD, monitors white is actually slightly more energy efficient than black.
Uranium ban doesn’t discourage prospectors
Greenland doesn't allow any uranium mining or prospecting to take place on the island.Despite this, companies are actively exploring Kvanefjeld in southern Greenland, one the largest undeveloped uranium-rich areas in the world, with an estimated $10 billion worth of uranium.
Taiwan to Boost Windpower by More Than 5-Fold
Taiwan is planning to invest around T$30 billion (US$915 million) over the next three years boost its wind power generation by more than five-fold, by inviting private firms to bid for the right to build turbines, energy officials said on Thursday.
Yes, really. These five leak-plugging, warmth-trapping, efficiency-enhancing ideas could slice your home's energy usage by up to 50 percent.
Air New Zealand has announced it will carry out the first commercial trial of a bio-fuelled Boeing 747.
Beneath Booming Cities, China’s Future Is Drying Up
China is scouring the world for oil, natural gas and minerals to keep its economic machine humming. But trade deals cannot solve water problems. Water usage in China has quintupled since 1949, and leaders will increasingly face tough political choices as cities, industry and farming compete for a finite and unbalanced water supply.
China's gasoline imports soar in August
Amid an auto boom, China's gasoline imports hit a ten-year high in August after the country's economic planner ordered state-owned oil firms to make up shortfalls in supply.
South China faces fuel crunch as oil firms battle Beijing
"Meiyou, meiyou" -- "None here, none here!" the petrol station attendant shouts, waving his arms at a small truck pulling up to the diesel pump to signal that it is dry.Without stopping, the truck rolls on in search of the fuel elsewhere -- another casualty of the low-profile but intense battle between China's government and its increasingly independent oil firms over who should fund fuel subsidies.
The showdown has caused diesel shortages in parts of China's booming coastal province of Guangdong for weeks, according to drivers, gas station managers and industry sources, as refiners seek to staunch losses by reducing sales.
The dry pumps are a distant echo of the fuel criss in the summer of 2005 that sparked long lines and a government crackdown on oil firms' huge exports. Beijing suspended tax incentives and set export quotas to keep more fuel at home.
China: 'No-light' show sends wake-up call to save fuel
Sunday night's orchestrated blackout for 30 minutes in seven cities was intended as a wake-up call to citizens who take electricity for granted.
For Total, pulling out of Myanmar not the answer
The French oil company Total said shutting its operations in Myanmar could cause even greater hardship in the country, despite a hardening attitude by France toward new investment amid a conflict between citizens and the ruling military junta that has left nine people dead.
What adds fuel to the fire is the present situation in the entire region. Albania faced and faces a major energy crisis. Greece is constantly increasing the its imported quantities of electricity. In the wake of the closure of two reactors Kozloduy in January 2006, there simply isn't enough electricity to go round. The whole region is facing an energy crisis. Bulgaria, which was one of the biggest exporters of electricity in Europe, has recently started to import it!
Iran - Pakistan - India Gas Pipeline Stuck in Quick Sand
India is now in serious dilemma. The probable nuclear deal with U.S is getting serious political opposition; the prevailing situation in Myanmar may not favor anyone to access gas from that troubles torn country soon. Now if the IPI or to be more specific the Pakistan- India segment does not happen India will be in serious energy shortage to meet its dynamic economic growth.
Kurdistan region of Iraq faces mounting problems
Trade with Turkey has already slowed down and the Kurds had started buying more foodstuffs and all their fuel needs from Iran. With the closure of the border he food and fuel flow stopped cutting off vital supplies in the midst of Ramadan.This is creating a crisis situation in the region.
India - Food versus fuel: The emerging debate
Another syndrome emerging in the country may be called demographic dichotomy. There is creeping obesity in the cities, especially among youth, and chronic under-nutrition in rural areas, especially among women and children. This trend needs to be checked.
Digging for solutions to energy crisis
In the 1970s, Iceland was one of the poorest countries in Europe. Today it is one of the richest, with a per capita GDP higher than that of Denmark, from which it won full independence in 1944.How did it accomplish this remarkable transformation? A key element was the shift from imported coal and oil to geothermal energy. Iceland now uses geothermal energy to generate a large portion of its electricity and nearly all of its heating needs.
Green energy: Solar's Big Boom
California's push for energy from the sun could turn the Golden State into the Saudi Arabia of the solar power industry.
An energy crisis is the last thing most Americans want to talk about, but if someone doesn't address it soon we will keep going to war over power sources.
Kunstler: America’s New Religion
Okay, here’s the big problem in America; we made this unfortunate set of choices to create the drive-in utopia, the happy-motoring utopia. America’s oil consumption is the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world. We’re not going to be able to continue this living arrangement and that makes it, by definition, the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world.But we like things the way they are. So we will not change our behavior until conditions force us to change. We Americans have put so much of our resources, so much of our wealth, so much of our spirit into constructing and assembling this energy-intensive infrastructure for daily life, that we can’t imagine letting go of it.
And here's Part II: America's New Religion, Part II
Suburbia is going to fail. You can state that categorically: It's going to fail in terms of investment and it's going to fail in terms of utility. We're not going to be able to use it; we're not going to be able to make those trips from 38 miles outside of Minneapolis and Dallas.
Technological Advances to Quench Thirst for Oil
Oil markets are in turmoil, admits Saudi Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi in an interview in New York. With Saudi Arabia currently accounting for almost one-fifth of global crude exports and analysts expecting it to meet a quarter of the world's increasing crude thirst in the near future, the global dependence on Saudi Arabia is set to go up. As the only producer with significant excess capacity, the Kingdom has played a crucial role in alleviating temporary supply disruptions and crises. The Kingdom upped its daily production by 3.1 million barrels during the first Gulf War, for example, when oil production in Iraq and Kuwait dropped by 5.3 million barrels. It was crucial in balancing the global markets then. With geopolitics occupying center stage, the Saudi role would stay crucial to the global well-being.
What is the Iraq war's carbon footprint?
We are updated on a daily basis about the ever mounting human cost of the Iraq war, but even the US military is now starting to ask questions about how much oil the "war over oil" is consuming. Last year, Major General Richard Zilmer sent the Pentagon a "priority one" request from Iraq for "a self-sustainable energy solution" that would include "solar panels and wind turbines". The US military's carbon footprint was not his concern - rather, that "by reducing the need for [petrol] at our outlying bases, we can decrease the frequency of logistics convoys on the road, thereby reducing the danger to our marines, soldiers, and sailors".
Iran strengthens ties with South America's leftist regimes
Vilified by world leaders wary of his nuclear ambitions, Iran's president is turning to South American leftists who are embracing him as an energy and trade partner and counterweight to U.S. influence.
Week in Petroleum: Retractable roofs
Although one or more factors have put a temporary ceiling on oil prices during some periods, oil prices then continued their upward trend, as if a retractable roof had opened.
Pakistan: No respite from suffering
Angry mob blocked the National stadium road for hours and chanted slogans against KESC management. They also burnt the tires and old furniture and pelted stones on the vehicles. The residents of Gulshan-e- Iqbal are suffering with the cables faults since many days and suffering with day to night power outage.
Big Potential and Challenges for Biofuels
Biofuels offer Africa the chance to supply itself with alternative energy sources, and also to become a major supplier of these sources for developed markets. Yet, challenges -- from creating the relevant infrastructure to competition for biofuel crops from food markets -- remain.
Put up pump prices or we will all count cost
I'm positive about climate change and energy saving and alternatives. Taking a helicopter view of the problem is a bit like examining the books of a company you are considering buying out. What do we look for? Inefficiencies, ways of making savings, increasing production, selling off some under-performing assets? The worse-run the enterprise, the better, because you know how you are going to make improvements - lift sales and thereby lift share prices.
Mountain mining called "genocide" of Appalachia
Larry Gibson's tiny house sits in a green oasis on top of the Appalachian peak his family has called home for 230 years. The setting would be peaceful if not for the roar of machinery scraping away the surrounding mountain in search of coal."It's a noisy, dusty place. They dynamite constantly," said Gibson, 61. "It's the genocide of Appalachia, the destruction of a people who have lived in these mountains forever."
Analysis: Nigerian rebels end cease-fire
Nigeria’s leading militant group threatened to resume attacks on foreign and domestic oil and gas operations following a four-month cease-fire intended to allow the new president to make good on vows to reform the petroleum sector and root out corruption.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Has the Media Become the Message?
With every passing month, evidence peak world oil production has either passed or is getting very close becomes stronger. Last week, the world peak oil conference in Ireland, heard that the best available data now suggests there may only be about 250 billion barrels of oil left to find rather than the generally accepted figure of 700 billion barrels put forth by the USCGS in 2000. Keep in mind that 250 billion barrels is only about eight years worth at our current 31 billion barrel per year rate of consumptions and that, should these billions of barrels actually be found, they will be extremely difficult to find and exploit.
Lifestyle changes prepare locals for energy changes
The head of Boulder Valley Relocalization has a radically different view of the future, one in which the daily gridlock on U.S. 36 would be a thing of the oil-guzzling past, where farms would dot large swathes of Boulder County open space, Kentucky bluegrass would give way to food crops in suburban yards and businesses would plant rooftop gardens. Solar panels and other renewable energy would supply a large portion of the community's energy. Local businesses would meet many more of the citizenry's daily needs, and customers could even choose to use a local currency.
Alberta Angles for Bigger Share of Oil Receipts as Futures Soar
Alberta, once a refuge from the world's resource nationalists, could soon join them.
Statements like these could almost make one believe that the Saudis really are sitting on top of an inexhaustible ocean of oil, and that peak oil is a myth. Because if there is one problem the world isn't facing right now, it is a precipitous decline in the global demand for oil, tax policies notwithstanding. If only it were so.
Ban Ki Moon: We can combat climate change
These are the two faces of climate change - worsening cases of extreme weather on the one hand, accompanied by scientific evidence that humankind is the cause; on the other, clear signs that the world has awakened to the scale of the problem and, at long last, has decided to do something about it.
Big carbon cuts: scary, but doable
This June, Group of Eight leaders confirmed the need for "substantial global reductions" in the man-made emissions of greenhouse gases that are dangerously warming the earth. By 2050 global emissions will have to be at least 50 percent below their level in 1990.Such radical calls are crucial to prevent a climate catastrophe. They also make countries nervous. The reason? They're worried carbon reductions will hurt economic growth.
OVER the past few years the questions have been asked ever more forcefully whether global climate changes occur in natural cycles or not, to what degree we humans contribute to them, what threats stem from them and what can be done to prevent them. Scientific studies demonstrate that any changes in temperature and energy cycles on a planetary scale could mean danger for all people on all continents.
The Climate Change Peril That Insurers See
Ten years ago, Peter Levene, chairman of Lloyds of London, was skeptical about global warming theories, but no longer. He believes carbon emissions caused by human activity are warming the Earth and causing severe weather-related events. "At Lloyds, we feel the effects of extreme weather more than most," he said in a March speech. "We don't just live with risk -- we have to pick up the pieces afterwards." Lloyds predicts that the United States will be hit by a hurricane causing $100 billion worth of damage, more than double that of Katrina. Industry analysts estimate that such an event would bankrupt as many as 40 insurers.Lloyd's has warned: "The insurance industry must start actively adjusting in response to greenhouse gas trends if it is to survive." The Association of British Insurers has called on governments to "stem ominous weather related trends" by cutting carbon emissions. U.S.-based companies AIG and Marsh -- respectively, the largest insurer and broker -- have joined with other corporate leaders to urge Congress to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 60 to 80 percent by mid-century. AIG's policy statement on climate change "recognizes the scientific consensus that climate change is a reality and is likely in large part the result of human activities that have led to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere."
One of the ports of call during the last two weeks that I have been away was the 6th international conference of ASPO (the Association for the Study of Peak Oil) in Cork. This is the body, founded by former oil geologist Dr Colin Campbell, which more than any other has brought to public consciousness the imminent peaking in the availability of cheap fossil fuels.‘Fun’ was hardly the word for it, but it was good to be in the company of people who have clearly understood the pivotal role of cheap energy in creating the highly abnormal and completely unsustainable global society in which we live today. Unsustainable precisely because the cheap energy on which the whole edifice is built is getting more expensive by the month – and is set, bar the odd blip, to do so indefinitely.
Carolyn Baker: Secede from the United States?
The Vermont secession impulse is born out of our understanding that the United States - once a great republic - has become an unsustainable Empire governed by a very few. Beyond massive (and bipartisan) national electoral fraud, 9/11's unanswered questions, a "war on terror" (that will not end, we are told, in our life times), the collapse of the U.S. Constitution, the erosion of civil liberties, and the practicing of "disaster capitalism" on a massive scale by political and economic elites, the U.S. is simply too big to function as a democratic republic in its current state. In other words, as astute observers from across the political spectrum have pointed out, the Empire is essentially ungovernable, unsustainable, and un-reformable.
Small cars that could raise American pulses
Predictions that this is the year Americans will finally embrace small cars seem to perpetually miss the mark. Gas that’s cheap in relative terms, broad avenues and free parking continue to invite Americans to use roomier, more comfortable cars.But a new crop of small cars that debuted at the 2007 Frankfurt Auto Show this month could raise the pulse of American small car enthusiasts and win a few converts if they reach production and make it stateside.
Oil prices back above $83 a barrel
Oil prices rose back above US$83 a barrel in Asian trade Friday, adding to gains in the previous session sparked by a decline in crude inventories at a key Oklahoma terminal and the confrontation between the West and Iran.
Consumers may catch a break on heating bills
This summer’s run-up in energy prices pinched consumer pocketbooks at the gasoline pump and helped put a dent in overall spending. With crude oil prices at near-record levels, many are looking at the potential for high heating bills this winter, especially in the Northeast, where homeowners are more likely to rely on heating oil.But customers who depend on natural gas could catch a break, especially if forecasters are right when they predict a milder-than-usual winter this year.
Gunmen in Nigeria kill oil worker
Gunmen wearing military fatigues and traveling by boat attacked a riverside compound Thursday in southern Nigeria, killing a Colombian oil worker and kidnapping at least one other foreigner.
Candidates talk of alternative fuels, different goals
When Democratic and Republican presidential candidates push renewable energy from wind farms, solar cells and biofuels, one might think they're all talking about the same thing.They're not. Democratic candidates talk about renewable energy as a way to cut greenhouse gases that cause global warming. Republican candidates talk about renewable energy to reduce the use of foreign oil or, as they call it, to achieve "energy independence."
Bush seeks new image on global warming
Myth: The president refuses to admit that climate change is real and that humans are a factor. Myth: The U.S. is doing nothing to address climate change. Myth: The United States refuses to engage internationally.So begins a hand-sized handout, easy for reporters to pocket, issued at the State Department where President Bush on Friday was to cap two days of talks at a White House-sponsored climate change conference that is as much about salesmanship as it is about diplomacy.
The U.N.'s Hot Air on Climate Change
At the end of the one-day session, the delegates hadn't come much closer to achieving the next meaningful step in the battle against climate change: negotiating a more complete successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires at the end of 2012. Though political awareness of the need to grapple with climate change was clearly at an all-time high — scores of national leaders don't suddenly convene at the U.N. without a decent reason — the global political will to actually do something still seems lacking.
Climate change bill calls for 50-cent fuel tax
U.S. drivers would pay a 50-cent tax on each gallon of gasoline they pump to encourage less fuel use and cut greenhouse gas emissions, under draft legislation to fight global warming released on Thursday.



A new Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada. An Energy and Environment Round-Up will follow over the weekend.
Et tu, Canada?
There's a country just south of here that pretends to be the world's richest economy, but in reality seems headed for the Halliburdened poorhouse. Et tu, Canada? Depends on where you look.
The papers' front pages show Prime Minister Stephen Harper, knowing there's no opposition left to speak of, though he leads a minority Cabinet. Stephen, too stiff to even play golf, shuffling the greens with Tiger Woods for a photo-op. Then a broad media smile: an alleged record federal budget surplus ($13.8 billion). To top it off, the new King of Nadamaskakas magnanimously hints at tax cuts. Little detail: it's $35 per person per year, less than 10 cents per day. But it sounded good at first, right, tax cut? Bienvenue à la politique.
In the finance pages, a different take: lax laws have allowed trusts, funds and your pet parakeet to issue non-bank commercial paper (ABCP), to the tune of $40 billion (bank ABCP: $80 billion more). On August 16, the biggest gamblers tried hard to change this from short-to long term debt. Turns out, that won't fly: nobody can even figure out where it is or what it's worth. Caught in their own trap.
Québec's massive Caisse de Dépot pension fund holds $20 billion worth of it, a sizable chunk of their $240 billion portfolio, and that's just their domestic toilet paper. Our advice: Keep the day job. Till you're, like, 95. Your pension has been gambled away.
About that federal budget surplus: Canada's federal debt is $467 billion. Which, to our untrained eye, means the term "budget surplus" is the victim of acute and intense inflation. Harper actually said on TV that the surplus will be used to pay off the debt. On our untrained calculator, that would take, at the current rate, a negligible 33.8 years, or until 2041, providing no new debts are incurred, and inflation stops dead in its tracks. But we kid you not, at the moment of writing this, Harper's on TV, saying he does this for future generations.
To finish off this sunny newscast, while TD Bank raves about the tar profits, despite royalty reviews, Big Oil has launched the first lawsuit against Canada under NAFTA law. We'll see much more of that, soon, as in the Alberta royalty revision plans. Send your kids to law school.
As American as apple pie, as Canadian as possible under the circumstances....
A couple of points:
Nobody's alleging that, since it's well-known that the budget surplus 2000/2001 was significantly higher ($18B).
That's not at all the first NAFTA lawsuit against a part of Canada; see, for example, this NAFTA lawsuit by UPS against the Canadian government.
Inflation and having a federal debt are very different things, and getting rid of the latter will do very little to the former.
On some definitions, inflation is a measurement of change of accumulated federal debt. Thus, it is a direct measurement of anual debit.
And on all definitions, federal debt sooner or later reflect on inflation. Of course, the governement can make it be later, increasing interest rates for a while.
Could you link to such a definition? I've never seen anything even remotely similar.
The most common definition is similar to this one: "Inflation is a general increase in prices across the economy over a period of time."
Could you please provide some evidence for this claim? Because it doesn't seem to fit reality; Canada had incredibly low inflation during the early 90's (link), which was precisely when its debt was highest.
So the available evidence disagrees with you.
I would define inflation as an increase in the money supply relative to available goods and services. Price increases are a only symptom of too much money chasing too few goods and services.
During the recent expansionary years, we have seen large asset price increases as a result of the money supply increasing, but monetary expansion has not ignited a wage-price spiral as it normally would due to downward pressure on wages from international wage arbitrage and downward pressure on prices from globalized trade.
Nope, That’s Not Money
What is beginning to happen now is the converse - the definition of 'money' is tightening, as confidence in exotic credit instruments created through financial alchemy is ebbing quickly. The result is a reduction in the effective money supply, which is leading inexorably towards a very painful credit crunch. We cover this progression at TOD:Canada twice a week.
Just as price increases eventually follow an increase in the money supply, price decreases (at least in nominal terms) will eventually follow a decrease in the money supply (deflation). Once all those fancy derivatives that make up such as large percentage of so many portfolios are actually marked to market rather than to model, then exactly such a downward readjustment of asset prices will occur over a relatively short space of time. A firesale by even one troubled institution can be enough to taint an entire asset class, with cascading effect.
Stoneleigh
thanks for you're careful explanation.I appreciate you'er
economic work here & as a newbie to such but discovering P.O. necessity i felt
i needed to study this area a lot[took control of my ira etc.
]
in the deflationary scene u & mish [mike shedrock], etc. envision i question if dollars[cash]would be king for more than a moment due to the dollar[us] dropping & our debt. & if the loonie et tu canada, then loonie's would fair some better but not as good as preps or other tangibles or pms.at least the loonie has reasources to support it. The US only has what's left of perception[ which subprime & helicopter drops are killing] & a what's left of saudi oil supremacy[which might be perception too].
swiss francs?
thanks, & again for you're contributions!
[having trouble w/ seeing text i'm typing w/ new system]
stoneleigh or others
Can We Have Inflation And Deflation All At The Same Time?
-- Posted Friday, 28 September 2007 | Digg This ArticleDigg It!
Copyright © 2007
A. E. Fekete
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1190991990.php
above my ability to analyse. comments.
one more thought. In stuart's recent thread
he quoted Krugman re some saying essentiallythe runs on the banks were the clincher in the great depression. i know the old timers refer to this the most
[few i know had stocks].It hit virtually everyone.
today a loss in home value, retirement fund down significantly, with a few bank runs[countrywide had a run in calif.] would again hit virtually everyone.
I actually think the US dollar is bottoming and a reversal may soon be on the cards. Everyone is bearish on the dollar, which is a signal that the trend has gone about as far as it's going to for now. The best bets are generally those made against the herd when the herd is nearly unanimous.
As for why such a thing should happen, I am expecting credit spreads to widen dramatically in order to reflect increased risk perception - that is the interest premium over treasuries paid on other forms of riskier debt should get larger. Money should flow into short term treasuries on a flight to quality, and away from perceived risk.
The value of the dollar needs to be compared against domestic goods and services, against which it should go up very significantly in a deflation when a firesale of assets is being conducted. It also needs to be compared to other currencies, where it could go up against some and down against others depending on which currency is deflating faster. (The problem is that there is no fixed point against which all other things can be valued.) I would expect both the dollar and the yen to rise relative to other currencies (the yen due to the unwinding of the carry trade), although the situation is likely to remain complex and fluid.
Thanks to our Canadian friends for noting that even our "friends" are telling us they don't like the smell of our money.
Next thing you know the homeless guy on the side of the road at the busiest intersection asking for work will have a sign reading, "Will work for food or euros, no $"
Sam Penny
the Prudent RVer
This story about Israel asking for aid in Euros is certainly not true. On top of coming from a dubious web site, the article was intended as satire.
Sam: One of the funniest pieces of satire I've seen in a long time. What makes it so hilarious is its utter plausibility- coming soon to a MSM outlet near you.
Right. Google "Tzipi Levni" (note that the name is spelled wrong-- her name is Tzipi Livni) and you will find a huge flood of responses and derivatives of that story. Some of them seem to take it seriously, and just go off the deep end. Some of them seem to think it is satire.
The strangest thing is that almost any news is a parody of itself these days.
And all those responses and derivatives come from anti-Jewish conspiracy sites. Try Google News. There's nada. This one's up there with the 4,000 Jews called in sick story.
Are you saying you didn't laugh out loud when you read this one?
Yeah. My fault though. Gonna go slap myself with a rubber chicken now.
Just heard Kenneth Heebner, CEO of the CMG Focus Fund on CNBC. He talked about Cantarell being in steep decline, he talked about Ghawar declining by 4.5 percent but quoted someone from Rigzone saying that the decline was much steeper than that. Anyway it was a little shocking to hear such talk on CNBC. The moderator quickly changed the subject however and that was the end of that.
However the word is getting out about the decline in the world’s major oil fields. It had to happen. With oil above $83 this morning, people are wondering why. Of course the collapsing dollar has a lot to do with it but also so does the decline of world oil supply.
Ron Patterson
Someone from Rigzone? I wonder who?
They usually archive their stuff, don't they?
It is up now:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=534709189&play=1
It was the CEO of Baker Hughes who said Ghawar was declining by 4.5% but this CEO said he had heard it was much steeper. It was not Rigzone. My mistake.
Ron Patterson
Heebner. He's no oil man.
But you can't say it any plainer than that.
And WT laid it out.
The widening crack spread.
Refineries-just like in Africa-can't make money
off of $2.69 gas while paying $83.50 for crude.
Like the Soviets and dirt cheap bread prices.
Soon, the only place you get that price for bread
is in the Capitol at, say, 6:00 in the AM.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
But Baker Hughes is an oil field service company. They have a lot of operations in Saudi Arabia. If anyone should know about decline in Ghawar it is Baker Hughes. We have all been waiting for inside information confirming the decline in Ghawar. Well, now we have it!
Ron Patterson
Its real easy to call a decline when a countries production is cut back for a year. If it increases next year, will it be just as easy to say it wasn't a decline?
If you want to be provocative, at least learn the basic terminology. Saying an oilfield is in decline is not the same as saying production has been cut back. In fact, couldn't be more different. He said the former, not the latter.
Gads
You must understand. Ghawar represents >50% of the production from KSA. As WT is fond of stating, as goes Ghawar, so goes KSA (and the world). We've had a number of articles posted talking about how Ghawar was in decline because a million bpd were watered out in the northern areas of the massive field. This is just a natural extension of the claims and work that has been presented here at TOD thus far. The logical connection, should this claim be true, is that KSA is indeed declining because Ghawar is declining.
If KSA somehow increases production, then it would appear that Ghawar is not the carrot thats leading the oil production of the world into oblivion.
You must understand. Words represent slightly more than half of the perception that people have about you - the other half is the "tone" of the words. If you use a juvenile "tone", people will think you are juvenile. As Mark Twain was fond of stating "The difference between the almost right word and the right word is really a large matter - it's the difference between the lightning bug and the lightning". We've had a number of posts from Mr. P. Guy talking about how nothing is proven until it's proven, and, even then, it's not really proven because you can't prove anything. This is just a natural extension of the claims and work that has been presented by countless governments, oil companies, and self-imagined sages thus far. The logical connection, should this claim be true, is that Mr. P. Guy is indeed declining in age because the quality of his posts is declining.
To respond to your attempt at proving "Ghawar-not-in-decline":
If KSA somehow increases production for "one whole school year plus summer vacation" above the 2005 (and 2006 all liquids) maximum, then it is possible that Ghawar is not in as serious decline as discussed previously.
Most of us believe that SA carries an excess capacity cushion, which may be small but is there. They say they have a cushion themselves. If they are finding reduced capacity due to decline, they then reduce total production to maintain their spare capacity. As such, they maintain the ability to increase production to a limited degree (perhaps up to 1 mppd) at any point for some period of time. However, this doesn't mean their underlying capacity is not in decline. They can at least temporarily increase production even during a decline phase.
Evidence will come in hindsight, after more experience and time. Temporary fluctuations won't tell us. Whether it is logical to you or not, SA has considered the state of its fields a national secret and unless policies change, they won't be telling us any time soon.
I agree entirely. That means we still need to play the waiting game.
PartyGuy, you just don't get anything right do you? If Saudi is choaking back on production then that is an entirely different matter than the decline of Ghawar. Baker Hughes, the second largest oilfield service company in the world, says Ghawar is in decline. That should settle it unless you are a PartyGuy and just don't get anything.
Note: Baker Hughes was the second largest oilfield service company at the time of the merger between Baker and Hughes in 1986. I have no idea where they stand today. Haliburton is of course, by far, the largest oilfield service company in the world.
Ron Patterson
So why doesn't KSA come out and say Ghawar is in decline? Mexico did it for Cantrell. The UK did it for the North Sea fields. We did it for Prudhoe Bay. Hell even China has done it. Why aren't they saying 'golly gee, Ghawar is declining'. Instead we get one source from a third party person that tells YOU exactly what you want to hear, and suddenly its 'THE TRUTH(tm)' and no heresy is tolerated!!
I don't take things on blind faith. I require real, concrete, hard data to convince me of the truth of any subject. I don't heed rhetoric from third party sources, no matter how responsible they have been. If Ghawar is declining by 4.5%, they should be able to furnish us with PROOF.
Not figureheads.
The countries you named, Mexico, the UK and the U.S., are open societies that keep largely transparent records of energy sources, production, and consumption. Saudi Arabia is an extremely closed society.