DrumBeat: October 18, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 18, 2007 - 8:55am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The time remaining for serious action on energy is short
The rapid loss of Arctic ice has led nations to lay claims to possible energy reserves under the thinning polar ice cap. Deffeyes said more than 100 deep-sea holes have been drilled elsewhere and no oil has been found. A set of special conditions are all required to produce oil and natural gas reserves and most of the planet never had all of them. There may be no significant reserves beneath the Arctic ocean.Deffeyes noted that the time remaining for serious action on energy is relatively short, perhaps five years. The path we have been on will likely lead to war and famine, but, we still have choices in that regard.
John Michael Greer: The age of scarcity industrialism
A very large percentage of the energy used in a modern industrial society, after all, is wasted. During an age of cheap abundant energy, it’s profitable to use energy in ways that have no real economic value at all, because the profit to be made selling the energy outweighs the short-term costs of wasting it. Tourism, the world’s largest industry just now, is a classic example. Shut down the tourist industry – as every country in the world did during the Second World War – and redirect the resources now wasted on tourism to other uses, and industrial societies could weather a steep drop in energy supplies without impacting necessary goods and services. The same is true of many other dimensions of today’s economy of waste.
Energy-rich Caspian becomes center of U.S.-Russia power struggle
Is the Caspian a sea or a lake?The answer has immense repercussions for the energy industry. If it is a lake, there are no obligations by countries that flank it to grant permits to foreign vessels or drilling companies. But if it is sea, there are international treaties obliging those countries to an array of permits.
Drugs are not our only addiction
We have to agree with Mr. Bush that alternative energy sources are critical to our survival as a strong nation, but who will step forward and try to effect genuine change? If someone does take that brave step, he or she should first knock on Jimmy Carter’s door to learn just how painful the price of change can be.
Anyway, back to oil. If prices remain this high, we’ll all just spend a bit more and save a bit less. But if this volatile commodity goes ballistic, then every element of modern life is going to blow up with it, and spending a bit more won’t even be an option, because there won’t be much to spend it on. We’ll be all foraging for coconuts.So maybe hiding out in a well-provisioned cave doesn’t sound so bad, as we contemplate a Mad Max world. I ain’t saying it’s going to happen, but if you’re looking for something big to worry about, and the global warming trend has gotten so mainstream, even bland, that it’s lost its trendy edge, then oil paranoia could make for a wonderful hobby. Believe me, you might have plenty of company soon.
Maine: Oil price spike fouls state tax revenue forecast
Oil prices, which hit an all-time high of $88 a barrel on Tuesday, could dampen holiday sales and further erode the state's revenue projections that already suffer from lower-than-anticipated corporate income and cigarette tax collections.
Slutz getting around but few are interested
Sadly for Slutz, not many in Australia had the chance to hear about his committee's findings. At a press conference in Perth, a grand total of one journalist turned up to hear him speak.
Uganda: Gulu Faces Fuel Shortage, Fares Hiked
A FUEL shortage has hit Gulu district, leading to a hike in transport fares. Motorists and boda boda cyclists on Tuesday morning queued at the Caltex station, the only station that had fuel.
LONDON - Retail prices for diesel have struck a record high and are set to rise further, the Automobile Association said on Thursday.
OPEC: Strong oil demand will continue through ‘08
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says world crude oil demand remains steady despite high prices and gave no indication of planning an increase in output to ease prices from this week’s all-time highs.
New tensions accompany promise of alternative fuels
First came the boom. Now, the backlash.Biofuels have gotten a bad name around the globe, despite their ability to reduce oil use.
Whether the blame is fair or not, a negative image could limit the potential to create more environmentally beneficial fuels, experts say.
Do food miles make a difference to global warming?
The U.S. local food movement -- which used to be elite, expensive and mostly coastal -- has gone mainstream, with a boost from environmentalists who reckon that eating what grows nearby cuts down on global warming.But do food miles -- the distance edibles travel from farm to plate -- give an accurate gauge of environmental impact, especially where greenhouse gas emissions are concerned?
“Try this experiment. Go knock on someone’s door in West Oakland, Watts or Newark and say: ‘We gotta really big problem!’ They say: ‘We do? We do?’ ‘Yeah, we gotta really big problem!’ ‘We do? We do?’ ‘Yeah, we gotta save the polar bears! You may not make it out of this neighborhood alive, but we gotta save the polar bears!’ ”Mr. Jones then just shakes his head. You try that approach on people without jobs who live in neighborhoods where they’ve got a lot better chance of getting killed by a passing shooter than a melting glacier, you’re going to get nowhere — and without bringing America’s underclass into the green movement, it’s going to get nowhere, too.”
Sweden's sustainable finance system (podcast)
Oscar Kjellberg is the former CEO and current strategic manager of J.A.K. Members Bank in Sweden, an interest-free, member-owned savings and loan. In this interview with Andi Hazelwood of Global Public Media, Kjellberg talks about the history of J.A.K Members bank, explains the J.A.K. banking model and illustrates how the conventional interest-based system, with its growth imperative, is unsustainable. Kjellberg also discusses how the J.A.K. model differs from the interest-free Islamic banking system, and how the current mortgage and currency crisis in the US is a result of interest-based financing.
Tar Sands and the American Automobile
The tremendous energy required to bring the sand to the surface for separation is largely provided by natural gas. (Oil sands consume about 500 million cubic feet of natural gas a day, an amount likely to increase to 1.25 billion cubic feet daily by 2016. The process is so inefficient that the natural gas required to produce one barrel of tar sands oil could heat a family home for two to four days. This process uses a relatively clean fuel to assist in the production of a dirtier one, prompting oil analyst Matt Simmons to describes the process as “making gold into lead.”
Brit's £6bn oil giveaway to EU
BRITAIN will be forced to surrender its oil stocks to the EU under the new treaty – costing taxpayers £6BILLION.European Commission chiefs will be able to order the UK to increase its oil reserves in case of emergencies in OTHER nations.
It would mean Britain would have to hand over stocks to EU states suffering an energy crisis.
ANALYSIS-No "big bang" Mexico energy reform, only tweaks
Mexico is facing a double headache of declining output and proved reserves that have shrunk to just nine years' worth of output. Pemex lacks the technology to explore deep waters in the Gulf where where it thinks massive reserves might be found.Despite winning two other economic reforms in only a few months, Calderon lacks a majority in Congress and a key opposition party is not keen to lift a 70-year constitutional ban on direct private investment in energy.
Canada-Mexico Energy Deal Signals Deeper Bilateral Ties
A new agreement between a Calgary-based oil and gas firm and Mexico's state-run energy company is being hailed as a significant deal that could signal the beginning of a shift in what defines the Canada-Mexico relationship.
Local groups use peer pressure - and fines - to cut carbon emissions
Some local initiatives emphasize adoption of new technologies or vastly improved rates of recycling. Others aim to push the government to set a mandatory cap on the amount of carbon dioxide each citizen may generate. But all these efforts face a balancing act: Satisfying a desire among the early adopters to make quick progress and, at the same time, developing models that could become accepted by the general public.
US concerned about "very high" oil prices: Bodman
"The signs are that there are issues related to the amount of supply," Bodman told reporters hours after oil touched a record peak of $89 a barrel, adding that prices were "very high.""I would think it would have an impact on the decision making - not just OPEC but all of the exporting countries. I think the message has become reasonably clear," Bodman said.
New Zealand: Official oil forecasts wildly incorrect
"Every Reserve Bank prediction has said that oil prices will stabilise and then drop, when in fact they have continued to rise. In December 2005, the Reserve Bank's prediction was that the price right now would be US$40 a barrel - less than half what it actually is. The following year they recognised this looked silly so predicted the US$40 price would be reached instead at the end of 2009."Does anyone continue to believe this fantasy?"
Some analysts say record highs are only the beginning. Traders betting on rising global demand could push prices up further.
Wesbury: Economy keeps going and going
“Thomas Malthus was wrong,” said Wesbury. “What’d he miss? The tractor, fertilizer ... he missed technology.”Wesbury said he recalls former President Jimmy Carter stating in 1978 that the world would have peak oil in 1984 or 1985. Now, said Wesbury, peak oil is projected to be reached in 2112.
“We will never, ever, ever run out of oil,” he said. “That last barrel of oil will cost $1 trillion, and it will end up in the Smithsonian Institute. Because way, way before that, someone will figure out how to heat homes, drive cars ... without using so much petroleum.
“They are all wrong because they don’t believe in the human ingenuity,” he added. “They don’t have faith in humankind.”
Indonesia: Oil prices a threat to state budget
Oil could well be a slippery factor again for the state budget -- and Indonesia's whole economy -- if its prices continue to rise and strain the country's fuel-related subsidies, analysts warn.
Putin Suggests U.S. Wants Iraq's Oil
President Vladimir Putin, in his latest jab at Washington, suggested Thursday that the U.S. military campaign in Iraq was a "pointless" battle against the Iraqi people, aimed in part at seizing the country's oil reserves.
Higher Alberta Levies Threaten Oil Sands Pipeline Plans
Raising Alberta's oil and gas royalty rates could threaten at least C$15 billion in proposed oil sands pipelines, as producers delay or cancel projects to develop the resource, a report said late Tuesday.
Britain's new claim for sovereignty in Antarctica is all about energy, but we should now expect a sharp backlash and criticism from around the world.
Think $80 oil is painful? Wait until spring
Stable gasoline prices over the last two months have shielded U.S. consumers from the impact of galloping crude oil prices, but drivers will face more pain at the pump if the cost of crude remains high into next spring.
The next oil shock could come soon
ARE you ready for oil at $US100 a barrel? It's getting closer after hitting new highs above $US88 this week, and you will feel the pain at the petrol bowser. Console yourself with the thought that you are taking a hit for your country: in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development universe, there's probably nowhere better to be than Australia when the price is surging.
Oil price can hit $150 before 2010 - Investec
The price of oil, which hit a new record high above $88 a barrel on Tuesday, can rally further and may reach $150 before 2010, the fund manager for Investec's Global Energy Fund said."The reason why it has potential is the underlying supply and demand fundamentals are causing a serious crunch in oil markets," said Tim Guinness, chairman of Guinness Asset Management, who runs the Investec Global Energy Fund.
When Peak Oil Meets Global Warming
Crude oil prices rose to nearly $88 a barrel after Turkey approved a military incursion into Kurdish Iraq yesterday, which is just one reason why Jeremy Leggett’s ideas about peak oil and global warming are getting attention.
BP Executive pied as Europe's largest BioFuels Event disrupted
This morning a group of 15 climate change activists from protest group Food Not Fuel entered the BioFuel Expo & Conference taking place at the Newark Showground and took over the keynote speech. Oliver Mace, CEO of BP Fuels, the lead sponsors of the event recieved a cream pie in the face. Another campaigner was D-locked to the podium and various alarms were placed around the place. The hall was emptied and talks were canceled. There were no arrests.
Firefighters battle flames after explosion rocks Exxon Mobil refinery
Production at the facility that refines 60,000 barrels of oil a day has been scaled back due to the malfunction, Getz said. The extent of the damages and the exact cause of the malfunction will remain unknown until the fire is completely extinguished and investigators can examine the area where the malfunction occurred, Getz said.Getz described as speculation some reports that the incident caused a spike in world oil market prices.
Oil Refinery Problems Play Role in Prices (audio)
U.S. refineries are operating at close to full capacity and are aging, vulnerable, overburdened and very difficult to replace. That means problems at a single plant can have an outsize effect, causing pump prices to fluctuate wildly.
As oil super-spike hits, stocks pay attention
Wall Street gasped, then guffawed, two years ago when Goldman, Sachs & Co. analysts said the oil market had entered a multi-year "super-spike" period that would ultimately send crude prices as high as $105 a barrel.Oil was averaging around $50 a barrel at the time, well into the Iraqi war, and there was not much reason to see it going any higher then $60, or for the very bullish, $70.
But I knew Wednesday morning that the current spike, a speculative frenzy if there ever was one, was the real thing when I saw a story in my newspaper about how higher oil prices no longer mean much to the U.S. economy.
“Oil at $87 a barrel is cheap”
Geopolitical tensions pushed New York crude contracts for November delivery to a record high of $88.20 a barrel on Tuesday night, prompting market watchers to revise their price forecasts, and some are even predicting a leap to $300 a barrel should the US invade Iran.
Experts Worry That World Oil Production May Soon Peak (podcast)
Energy experts from around the world have gathered in Houston for a three-day conference on the issue of peak oil, which involves predictions that world oil production will soon reach its peak and then go into decline. This could cause a global economic crisis since demand for energy is not expected to slow, but, in fact, is expanding rapidly.
Crude Oil Futures Surpass $86: Backwardation Is Back
The ill-founded, yet perpetual "oil prices will be lower in the future" thinking by traders flies in the face of all that is known about peak oil projections and expected demand as a result of emerging economies around the world.
Iran, Sanctions and War: the Oil Factor
Is Iran importing gasoline because it is running out of oil? Do the fuel riots in Iran earlier this year mean that sanctions against Iran are working? Would Iran use the oil weapon? Can the oil weapon be used against Iran? These questions are crucial, but attempts to answer them have often been misleading and characterized by hyperbole. But putting the oil factor in context is important if there is to be an accurate analysis of current U.S.-Iran relations, and of Iran's role in the global energy market.
Is Crude Oil on Course to hit $100 per barrel?
An accurate reading of the global supply and demand picture is certainly a big help in predicting global oil prices. But if one wants to point the “finger of blame” at the biggest culprit behind the historic rise in crude oil prices, it’s no other than Federal Reserve chief Ben “B-52” Bernanke, whose decision to bail-out Wall Street brokers and banks this past summer, by slashing short-term interest rates, set in motion another US dollar devaluation, and sent global oil prices and gold sharply higher.
Iran, Venezuela Form Oil Venture to Rival Shell, Eni
Iran and Venezuela, the producers of about 9 percent of the world's oil, will form a $1 billion global venture for projects in countries where companies such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc or Eni SpA are facing tougher business conditions.
Ex-CIA chief wants energy independence
It is in the U.S.'s national security interest to continue developing transportation fuel derived from agricultural products because the country has become dangerously dependent on foreign oil, former CIA Director James Woolsey said.
Biofuels use transforming commodity markets: CME chief
The recent surge in crude oil and wheat prices to record highs pointed to a transformation of commodity markets, said Craig Donohue, chief executive of the world's largest financial exchange."This is an entirely new market in commodities. We see a tremendous convergence now between (soft) commodities and energy with many economies becoming very ethanol based," he told reporters during a visit to Tokyo.
IMF concerned by impact of biofuels on food prices
The IMF warned Wednesday that an increasing global reliance on grain as a source of fuel could drive up food prices in poor countries."The use of food as a source of fuel may have serious implications for the demand for food if the expansion of biofuels continues," the International Monetary Fund said in its twice-yearly report on the world economy.
Annan urges united action to tackle climate change
GENEVA (AFP) - Former UN chief Kofi Annan formally launched his new humanitarian forum here on Wednesday by urging all nations to work together to meet the challenges of climate change.
Climate change reshaping Arctic
The Arctic is under increasing stress from warming temperatures as shrubs colonize the tundra, changing wildlife habitat and local climate conditions, researchers said Wednesday.Sea ice fell well below the previous record, caribou are declining in many areas and permafrost is melting, according to the annual update of the State of the Arctic report.
Our refineries are expensive, massive, and creaking into old age. How will they be replaced?
No one in finance wants to make a long term bet on what may be a short term game. If they put in a new refinery and place it on a thirty six month depreciation schedule instead of thirty six years people will get suspicious.
Is there room for relocalization here, too? Instead of finished products in pipelines we could see crude moving to smaller, regional refineries. Some preprocessing would be done at the head end but the final fractionation (is this the right way to use this word) would be much closer to the consumer and on a much smaller scale. Perhaps users of crude for other than energy would add crude processing to their plants; here I'm thinking of plastics and so forth, where they plants already have the intellectual property to handle petrochemicals.
We've going to see big car makers blow apart and in the aftermath all of these little custom motorcycle shops are going to migrate to building small kit cars ... why not the same principle in effect for oil processing?
A lot of good ideas, but with NIMBYitis and the needs of fuel "production" I suspect smaller will not happen. Also most of the folks that work at the refineries live close to them and pretty much live with less than ideal environmental concerns that most of us would not tolerate. John
I think the big oil outfits,as well as local anti-oil activists would strangle that baby in its crib,SCT.The mini-car co.might have a market,though,depending on their product.I just spent 4 grand re-building a 1986 toy tercel wagon....completely new power train sans tranny,and am now getting 35-37 miles per.I expect 100k out of the engine.This little beast will do me for the foreseeable future{wife and I have bought 3}It won't work for every one but I suppose this is one way of dealing with the current problems.
Snuffy said:
Who is greener? The guy driving a 2007 Prius or Snuffy driving his 1986 Tercel? You might answer: "Neither! Snuffy should be riding a bicycle." However if Snuffy lives 20 miles from work or needs to cart his children to school and back then riding a bicycle isn't a real option. Fixing and using old cars is actually much more greener than driving around in a Prius provided the old car is fuel injected with electronic ignition. The sweet spot for Snuffy's strategy is to own and maintain a 1996 Saturn SL-1 with a 5 speed transmission or better yet a 1996 Toyota Corolla. Either car if well maintained can get over 30 mpg on the freeway. Due to their age, both cars have depreciated to zero value (the depreciation is what kills the economics of a 2007 Prius and not the fuel cost). Cars made on or after 1996 have OBD-II power train control modules with electronic ignition and fuel injection. These features make the car very fuel efficient, produce low air pollution and reliable even after 10 years of use. The Corolla has the additional advantage of being repairable with used imported Japanese parts. The Japanese have draconian registration laws that sometimes force a Japanese car owner to junk a car with less than 50,000 km on the odometer (the engine is barely broken-in). The engine from that car can be purchased very inexpensively and used to replace a worn-out engine in an American owned Corolla. I have used this strategy successfully with a 1976 Toyota Corolla and a 1988 Toyota Tercel. Also, it is my understanding that complete used Japanese cars can be purchased very inexpensively in New Zealand (they are not street legal in America).
I will humbly suggest there will be a renaissance in carburetor based cars with small displacements. The intellectual property to build and maintain a distributor based vehicle is within easy reach, while electronic fuel injection is not something one can deal with under the shade tree. It is a bit less efficient in terms of fuel utilization but much, much safer as things unwind. The 1949 International Super M in the shed out back is something I can pretty much handle in terms of repairs, the 2006 Nissan Versa parked next to the shed is just so much scrap to me if it needs anything more complex than new wiper blades.
SacredCowTipper said:
To some extent, you're preaching to the converted. My wife drives a fuel efficient 1996 Saturn SL-1 while my daily driver is a 1964 Rambler American. My Rambler has a 6-cylinder flathead engine, a one barrel carburetor and conventional vacuum advance distributor ignition system. My Rambler is trivial to maintain (it comes from an era when many Americans repaired their own cars). Repair tasks for the Rambler that can be done in 5 minutes might require an hour for the Saturn, e.g. changing the oil filter. Unfortunately for me, the Rambler has only half the fuel economy of the Saturn. This is due to the Saturn's sophisticated fuel injection and overhead cam versus the Rambler's primitive flathead engine and carburetor.
The issue of modern cars versus very old cars might actually be defined by external events. There isn't a single transistor in my Rambler but my wife's car is dependent upon a sophisticated Power Train Control module based upon the Motorolla HC6811 microprocessor. If the Iranians/Chinese/Russians/somebody decide to popoff a large nuke in space over North America, the electomagnetic pulse (EMP) would take out most integrated circuit based electronics in the US (our current economy would be turned off like a switch). Modern cars would cease to function but my old Rambler would still be rolling along. At that point (assuming I'm still alive), I'd have to build a still and convert biowaste into alcohol. The Rambler could burn pure alcohol or methane if I retuned the ignition and/or modified the fuel system.
Does your old Rambler have a DC generator? All newer alternators have diodes in them and I suspect that a strong
EMP (50,000 v/cm?) would kill the diodes. Any thoughts?
E. Swanson
Yes, I think you're right: The EMP will incinerate all nonlinear circuitry.
Big power diodes are pretty tough, they may survive, depending.
EMP produces stuff from DC to about 2.0 GHz and it does obey the inverse square law - double the distance, cut the power by 75%.
I have some knowledge of how radio works but I am no expert in the field, so I welcome correction, but I suspect the following is true: The higher the bomb, the more area it covers, but the greater the distance and attenuation due to distance as well as atmosphere. The longer waves will follow the ground and generate voltages only with things the right size to resonate while the shorter ones are lines of sight. The key to zapping electronics is having something somewhere in the vehicle that is resonant with the energy received.
EMP is not even a little bit funny, but I think the idea that one, high up, gets every bit of the country is not so believable. And no one triggers a nuke in space over the U.S. without getting a little one wrapped up in cobalt set off at a much lower altitude over their own capitol city.
This is really a back of the envelope remark, but still: an EMP will have an easier time frying things that are on the grid, since the grid has all these delicious copper loops, and anything that isn't shielded, which car engines generally are.
So it won't be 100% on things like cars.
True.
I believe 4 would be necessary.
http://webpal.org/
Hi SCT,
This is a good summary article. The NA grids could be shut down with a single high-altitude nuke, and it might take months or years to restart it:
http://www.todaysengineer.org/2007/Sep/HEMP.asp
There was an article in IEEE Spectrum a few years ago on the same subject but I can't find it. I believe it estimated the damage to silicon devices in North America at something around 45 trillion dollars from one HEMP.
re: cars, I'm more pessimistic than before, it appears any cable with less than 100% foil coverage or any bad grounds are, er, "grounds" for failure.
NR
I guess car survival doesn't matter much if gas stations are all dead :-) I read here every day and I'm still auto-centric :-(
Black_dog asked: "Does your old Rambler have a DC generator?"
Yes, it's an old fashioned DC generator without diodes. The voltage regulators are mechanical relay type. The whole setup is electrically very inefficient. However it's based upon heavy gauge copper wire so there's no way an EMP could knock it out.
I'm a member of an old car club and sometimes the other guys suggest that I replace the voltage regulator with a solid state device. However I LIKE driving a car that's uses neolithic technology. I prefer to keep it simple and easy to maintain.
Older VW Beetles should also be immune to EMP.
They have mechanical regulators and DC generators and AFAIK no electronics to speak of.
I have three of them in various stages of viability but all are capable with a little wrenching of running..just that I have let them sit idle for a long time.
I used to get mpg in the high 30..sometimes around 38 mpg if I recall correctly.
A very tough little car but you needed to keep the solid lifters set correctly.
Very easy to pull the engines.
airdale
Airdale said:
"A very tough little car but you needed to keep the solid lifters set correctly."
My other old car is a 1968 Karman Ghia. My Ghia started to run bad, so I did a compression test. The #3 cylinder has zero compression. The exhaust valve on the #3 had been tight and I adjusted it, thinking I had caught it in time. I thought wrong (the valve is burnt) and now have to replace the head.
I think I'll replace the head with the engine remaining in the car. Is that a dumb thing to do?
Yeah EP , you waited too long..however a new rebuilt head?
Not a biggie , or didn't use to be.
Ahhhh,,replace without pulling the engine? Yes I think that can be done. Don't see why not..In fact I think I have pulled them before that way.
1968? Mine are all early 70's with the dual port headers.
Keeping the right 'lash' on the lifters is important. If they start sinking in the head then you got problems. Heat is your big enemy so make sure you never blow a belt..I did once and it toasted my engine on the next big hill.
Be sure to use some oil on the cam and other bearing surfaces as you reinstall. While the head is off you can check wear on your cyclinders by checking the cyl ridge for an approximate idea.
BTW setting the valve clearance is tricky if the stems are snarly on the tips.
airdale
Airdale,
Thanks for the comments. This is my fouth Karmann Ghia. I've probably adjusted the valves on my Ghias over a hundred times. I bought this latest engine with the burnt valve from GEX and found out afterwards that GEX makes the worst VW engines in the world. GEX has an "F" rating with the Better Business Bureau and a long list of unhappy customers. GEX has these nice full page glossy ads in the VW magazines and supposably guarantees their engines. Unfortunately the guarantee is worthless and never honored. Supposably getting ripped off by GEX is the mark of being a clueless newbie (GEX is notorious within the air cooled VW community). I've owned Ghias for over 30 years so I can't claim being a newbie (my only excuse is simple stupidity).
The valve tightened and burned with incredible speed. The engine has probably less than 30,000 miles on it. Normally I check my valves every 2000 miles but was complacent and let 3-5 thousand miles go by without checking (it was a new engine). So I'll pay for my stupidity by spending the weekend replacing the head (it's a one port). Fortunately one port heads are cheap.
SCT, The US had many thousands of motorcycle makers and over two thousand auto makers before Henry Ford put them out of biz with his streamlined and efficient operations.
The machines that brought motorcycling back to life in the US were made in Japan. Honda with their small cc 'Dream', Passport and Trail 90, 110 were big sellers here and continue to sell well almost everywhere but here. Remember the Honda sales pitch, 'you meet the nicest people on a Honda'? I suspect that Honda will dust that one off for reuse.
When fuel prices get high enough we will once again see people on small motorcycles. Unlike big bikes, small ones are easy on tires/maintenence and will deliver 70-110 mpg. When over weight, out of shape Americans are confronted with a choice of a bicycle or a small cc, very economical motorbike, most will go for the motorbike.
Like Alan, I believe that rail is the way to go for longer trips and commutes in poor weather. When I arrived in Japan for a four year stay in the mid fifties it was bikes/motorbikes/rail. Untill the car craze hit SE Asia that was the model for every country. Cars have got to go or become as efficient as small motorbikes.
Ya...and now that loan requirements are getting tougher and harder to come by for residential properties...are commercial properties/capital next in the credit fallout? What banks are going to give HUGE loans on risky commercial investments? There was an article not too long ago stating that this phenomena could be hitting the smaller oil companies trying to get loans to run their operation.
Commercial property most certainly.
It's already starting, only reason they are finishing current projects is because they are committed past the point of no return.
The banks will lend to someone that has other hard collateral, question is why would someone with the assets invest in something that's far from a sure thing going into an unpredictable storm.
And that's without considering the coming elections, IMO we will see a lot of capital flight from US citizens.
Let's not get too silly about this. 'Small is beautiful' would be an emotional statement about romanticism, not a descriptive statement about the real world.
Refineries are virtually required by law to be "expensive, massive, and creaking with old age". Yes, in the 1920s, they built small refineries - which only needed to distill the crude. But these days, you need desulfurizers, catalytic crackers, cokers, waste-gas collectors, control and reporting systems - endless miles and miles of equipment and wiring required by law. A thing like that can't be done on a small local scale. And when the law allows any congenitally obstructionist NIMBY nebbich to singlehandedly block any expansion, renovation, or new project, no matter how vital it might be, then of course everything will be old. How could it be otherwise? But not to worry. Since we can't build anything here in the USA, the rentiers of OPEC are already building it for us on their turf and their terms. We will simply pay through the nose for our snootiness.
Never mind refineries, it costs somewhere north of $500,000 just to buy all the stainless steel and whatnot required by law to open a 'simple' local ice cream shop these days - which is why chains dominate. But Joe Sixpack, egged on by media hysterics, squeals with delight, as vast arrays of metastasizing obstructions convince him not only that he is "safe", but that his Congresscritter is avenging him against Evil Big Business for delivering the unwanted news that Joe actually has to work for a living and pay for what he consumes.
Absent a Mad Max future, all this will probably become ever worse. So there's really very little chance that big carmakers in general will blow apart (even if the domestic ones do.) Unless you're willing to go for far less meddlesome government - which would make you an outlier around here - you might as well get over it.
The Japanese are sensible, our auto makers are not. I didn't mean to suggest auto building would blow globally, but a compaction of the big three into the smaller one and the survival of the Chevy Aveo as one of their larger offerings seems likely.
I will.
Autos are gone in 5 years.
Depression by XMas for all to see.
Bush went on TV yesterday to call
Putin out.
Putin and China (see Zemin 5 Year Congress
for details) aren't blinking.
Rice's trip to Russia was a disaster.
"Clowns unto ages of ages"
http://d-n-i.net/lind/lind_9_25_07.htm
"A basic rule of history is that the inevitable eventually happens. If you keep on smoking in the powder magazine, you will at some point blow it up. No one can predict the specific event or its timing, but everyone can see the trend and where it is leading.
In the Middle East today, as in Europe in the decade before World War I, the desperate need is for a country or a leader to reverse the trend. Then, the two European leaders most opposed to war, Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany and Tsar Nicholas II of Russia, were able to do little more than drag their feet, trying to slow the train of events down. That was not enough, and it will not be enough today in the Middle East either."-Lind
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
I admire your willingness to make concrete predictions in public.
But depression by Christmas? You mean 2007?
If I were an exporting NOC, I'd be thinking to myself:
"Why export crude? Why not build a refinery and export the refined products instead? Value added equals higher profit margins. The importers don't want to build more refining capacity, so the demand will be there. Why not refine it ourselves?"
I helped sell organic soft-churned ice cream at a farmers' market in Oakland this summer with my friends. They spent less than $5k on all manner of equipment, half of which they probably didn't need.
You don't need "$500,000" to open a simple ice cream shop--there's a local place called Ici on College Ave that opened on far less. Most expensive and well-done bakeries on a small scale require no more than $250,000 tops!
And let's not talk about the lemonade stand :P
True--requirements and regs do add cost, but usually make a hell of a lot of sense. It keeps you from getting sick, or too much polluted air and water around your house.
Cheers.
It might be that this congenitally obstructionis NIMBY nebbich has looked at the statistics of higher cancer rates and higher lung disease rates (not to mention very stinky air) near a refinery and made an intelligent decision to oppose one in 'his backyard.'
When it's all said and done, we're going to be gratefull that all those regulations and NIMBYs throttled oil consumption by limiting refinery capacity. By putting the breaks on the uphill ride to Hubbert's Peak, they caused more oil to still be around for the downhill slide.
Yes, of course. The world would be just perfect if there were no govmint regulation.
Yes, so long as there is no need for 'em - what with all the honest actors we had before regulation.
And all the honest ones now.
it costs somewhere north of $500,000 just to buy all the stainless steel and whatnot require