DrumBeat: November 15, 2007


Court tosses federal fuel-economy standards

A U.S. appeals court on Thursday threw out the government's new fuel economy standards for many sport-utility vehicles, minivans and pickup trucks in a victory for environmentalists.

The 9th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the standards, which were to go into effect next year, did not properly assess the risk to the environment and failed to include heavier SUVs and trucks, among several other deficiencies the court found.

Cameroon police kill students in blackout protest

Police in Cameroon shot dead two students during a protest triggered by days of power blackouts in the western town of Kumba, state radio and a senior local official said on Monday.


Tahoe Hybrid SUV named Green Car of Year

The winner of a coveted environmental award is... a full-sized SUV? GM's new hybrid impresses judges with efficiency.


Energy costs push consumer prices higher

Consumer inflation posted another elevated reading in October as energy prices shot up by the fastest pace in five months.


Alaska Airlines adding blended winglets to 737-900s

Alaska Airlines will be the first airline to use blended winglet technology on Boeing's 737-900 airplane.

The winglets are the additions seen at the end of a plane's wings that are designed to reduce fuel consumption by 3 percent. Other carriers that will add the winglets to Boeing's 737-900 planes include Continental Airlines and KLM Royal Dutch Airlines.


Lester R. Brown: Is World Oil Production Peaking?

Is world oil production peaking? Quite possibly. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show a pronounced loss of momentum in the growth of oil production during the last few years. After climbing from 82.90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2004 to 84.15 mb/d in 2005, output only increased to 84.80 mb/d in 2006 and then declined to 84.62 mb/d during the first 10 months of 2007.

The combination of world production slowing down or starting to decline while demand continues to rise rapidly is putting strong upward pressure on prices. Over the past two years, oil prices have climbed from $50 to nearly $100 a barrel. (See data.) If production growth continues to lag behind the increase in demand, how high will prices go?


OPEC says unable to calm runaway oil prices

OPEC's president said Thursday that "potentially dangerous" high crude prices were beyond the cartel's control as leading members defied pressure to raise their output to help ease the burden of near 100-dollar oil.

"These prices are potentially dangerous," Mohammad al-Hamli, who is also the oil minister of the third largest OPEC producer United Arab Emirates (UAE), told a symposium held as part of a rare OPEC summit.


Ready for an oil-less future?

In a 90-minute slide show presentation at Cal State Bakersfield, the nationally known author and urban planning guru laid out what he calls The Long Emergency -- a future where oil is scarce and the American lifestyle collapses.

"Contrary to a lot of wishful thinking out there, the Earth doesn't have a creamy, nougat center of oil," said Kunstler, 59, whose latest book is also titled "The Long Emergency."

When the petroleum pump runs dry, he says, it will fundamentally shift our way of life.


Gwyn Don't Know Dyer

Richard Gwyn’s November 13, 2007 article “Pessimistic Fuel Report too Bright” comes tantalizingly close to understanding the full peril that the energy question presents to development, our collective wealth and the planet’s health. For this he deserves kudos. Though at this point in the energy and emissions narrative it is hardly news to say that if India and China were to consume like North America we would fry the planet.

However what he has completely missed, and in his defence he is in the majority, is the fact that it is not demand that is the driver of the train we are all on.


Crude Oil Falls More Than $1 After Unexpected Inventory Gain

"The jump in imports was enough for refiners to increase runs and still leave additional barrels to build stocks," said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. "The rise in imports is evidence that the declines we saw in recent weeks were a function of inventory management, not a shortage of oil."


Gas Prices Won't Deter Holiday Travelers

Gas prices near record highs at a time of year when they typically decline will not deter drivers from hitting the road this Thanksgiving, AAA said Thursday.

The travel agency expects a record 38.7 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home over the five days beginning Nov. 21. That is a 1.6 percent increase over last year. Roughly 80 percent of those trips will be by car, and motorists will pay about 90 cents a gallon more for gas than they did last year.


Is $100 Oil Cheap?

Remember when most professional investors griped that $40 per barrel crude was "overpriced," and then that $60 crude was "unsustainable," and then that $80 crude would "never happen." But here we sit with oil soaring past $90 and looking like it wants to take out $100.

We think crude oil will take out $100, and then continue higher from there. Sure, crude may decline in the short term, but the destination is clear: much higher prices. That may be bad news for the U.S. economy, but need not be bad news for you, assuming your money is in the right place. So what's the right place? Let's start with the big picture…


British Airways criticised over 'misleading' fuel surcharges

Long-haul passengers will be charged an extra £116 on return flights from today in BA's tenth increase in less than four years.


Coal power: Still going strong

NO UTILITY with any respect for its shareholders' money, says Michael Morris, the boss of the biggest one in America, AEP, would build a heavily polluting coal-burning power station in America these days, for fear that it would become a liability if the government moved to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. Europe already has a cap on emissions, which is designed precisely to discourage dirty fuels such as coal. So why is it that utilities in both places are running their coal-fired plants at full throttle, have several new ones under construction and would like to build even more?


Argentina to hike petroleum, gasoline export taxes

Argentina's government will raise taxes on the country's gasoline and petroleum exports and their derivatives in an effort to tame domestic fuel prices, officials said on Thursday,


Canada: On East Coast, consumers love a regulated price

Regulated gasoline prices -- love 'em or hate 'em.

Unthinkable in oil-rich Alberta, all across the East Coast there is strong support for government control of pump prices even though studies consistently show people pay more to fuel their cars.


Dark Day As Fuel Hits £5 a Gallon

With fuel costs rising by the day the £5 gallon has become a reality on Forest forecourts. Filling station bosses are finding the price they pay suppliers goes up every time they get a delivery.


Rising food prices test Chinese consumers

And Wang's woes matter to more people than just her family. In a country where growing prosperity is the government's central promise to its people, the authorities cannot afford to let inflation get out of control for fear of social discontent.


Production difficulties to drive uranium price to a new peak

Fast expanding nuclear fuel producer Uranium One CEO Neal Froneman "does not see any reason why the uranium price will not" scale new peaks in the next year to 18 months, as various difficulties hold back production across the globe, he said on Thursday.

One production hurdle was the current shortage of sulphuric acid, used in uranium extraction, which could have an effect on Uranium One's 2008 production, he said in a telephone interview from Toronto.


Thailand: Expert supports plan for nuke plant

Chawalit Phichalai said natural gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand would run out in the next 30 years and the world community's call to lower carbon dioxide emissions from fuel-fired plants would only get louder as a result of global warming.

Chawalit, an Energy Policy and Planning Office deputy director, was speaking in support of a National Energy Policies Commission (NEPC) decision to build a 2,000-mega-watt nuclear plant in Thailand by 2021. He said current high oil prices highlighted the importance of nuclear plants that could produce cheaper power - around Bt2.08 per unit compared to the Bt4 per unit created by bunker oil-ignited plants.


Trouble Brewing In America's Backyard

Mexico as a nation-state is under threat, and with it the US's third largest source of oil. The Federal government does not have the forces to smoke out, let alone counter the drug barons who virtually control such provinces as Sinaloa, Nuevo Leon and Sonora. Nor can they tackle the rebels and privateers who have been disrupting the country's oil infrastructure. There has been a mass exodus from the police and the army in the wake of the assassinations of hundreds of public officials. Indeed, by some definitions, Mexico is no longer a functioning nation state.


Traffic decline stalls Ohio Turnpike work

Northern Ohio's sluggish economy and gasoline's soaring price are taking their toll on the Ohio Turnpike.

While revenue is up in 2007 because of toll increases back in January, traffic is down for the first 10 months of the year.

Gary Suhadolnik, the turnpike's executive director, attributes that to reduced automotive and construction-industry trucking and less leisure travel among motorists.


Shell Head Talks About Energy Crisis

Just nine years ago, oil was at $8 per barrel, and gas was half of what it is now. The president of Shell, John Hofmeister, is warning Americans the next ten years could bring an economic nightmare if something is not done.


Giant screen charts growing Saudi energy sector

A 500,000 bpd slab of new capacity will soon be ready at the Khursaniyah oilfield, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said this week.

Inflation across the energy industry as producers strain to bring new capacity online has hit the megaprojects Aramco is undertaking across the kingdom to expand output of oil, refined products and petrochemicals.


OPEC Aid to Offset Price Impact

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has announced that it will help developing and least developed countries (LDCs) offset part of the impact of the rise in oil prices by funding their socioeconomic projects.


Alaska: Communities struggle with energy costs

In a keynote address, George Cannelos, the federal co-chair of the Denali Commission, described how rural communities are struggling in the face of high energy costs and village schools are closing as it becomes unaffordable to live in the villages.

“Our communities are failing, failing, without solving this energy issue,” he told a crowd of a few hundred at the Chena River Convention Center.


Green building, where are you?

With SN&R attempting a green renovation of a building on Del Paso Boulevard, I’m asked repeatedly: What exactly does “green building” mean? Sorry to disappoint, but to my knowledge a specific, agreed-upon, essential meaning of green building does not exist. Instead, “green building” refers to a conceptual framework with commonly held principles. There is no universal green building guide, in part, because different geographies and climactic activities—average temperatures, wind speeds, sun angles, annual rainfall percentages and so on—determine sensible options.


Should fires be banned?

The Chron reported that according to “government studies,” 33 percent of all “particulate matter” comes from your fireplace and mine? With all the industry and automotive traffic in the Bay Area, does anyone actually believe that?


New Mexico should embrace the Clean Cars Program to reduce global warming pollution

The Clean Cars Program is a promising policy with strong support that would help save New Mexico consumers money, while drastically reducing the state's global warming and traditional air pollution from new vehicles sold in the state.


Growth In US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Predicted To Accelerate

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions could grow more quickly in the next 50 years than in the previous half-century, even with technological advances and current energy-saving efforts, according to a new study by MIT's Richard Eckaus, the Ford International Professor of Economics, emeritus, and his co-author, Ian Sue Wing.

What's more, technology itself may be more the stuff that dreams are made on than the most available tool for reducing CO2 emissions or solving the global energy crisis, cautions Eckaus.


Price Surge Puts Focus on Oil Supplies

Some experts see a potential disaster looming — in as soon as five years or even less. Chris Skrebowski, the editor of the London-based Petroleum Review, thinks slower-than-expected supply growth combined with rising demand from burgeoning Asian economies could result in a worldwide shortfall of as much as 7 million barrels a day by 2013.

Demand is so strong that Matthew Simmons, a Houston oil and gas investment banker, says $100 a barrel oil may even be a bargain, with $300 crude likely in the future.

"I think oil prices are unbelievably inexpensive," said Simmons, the author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy," a widely debated book suggesting that the world's largest oil exporter will be hard pressed to maintain its crude output, let alone increase it.

From the oil industry, too, there are voices of concern. For example, Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of Total SA, France's largest oil company, believes the Department of Energy's global production forecast is far too high.

The psychology of $100 per barrel

So why is oil going up? There are more and more people living on the planet. They are using increasing amounts of oil, particularly as populous countries such as China and India develop economically.

Most of our energy comes from fossil fuel. It is a finite resource, so at some point we will begin to run out. When exactly this will happen and is a matter of debate exercising politicians, academics and business leaders.


Leaders need to address energy woes

"Peak Oil" is the term used to denote the point of maximum production in global oil fields. It happened regionally in the USA more than 35 years ago and our imports now exceed 64 percent. In fact, many major oil fields all over the world are peaking.


Japan-China Gas Talks Find No Breakthrough, Call for Political Effort

Japan and China were unable to settle in talks Wednesday how to resolve a dispute over gas exploration rights in the East China Sea but they agreed there is a need to increase political efforts, Japan's chief negotiator said.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura expressed disappointment over the lack of substantial progress and said that if such a stalemate continues he "fears it may even affect" the upcoming trip by Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda to China.


Yellow Sees Red Over Oil Prices

Zollars expressed surprise at the soaring price of barrels of crude oil. “I think there were very few people who would have predicted $100 oil,” he said.

Indeed, triple-digit oil prices have surprised most analysts. But accurate forecasts were available to trucking executives willing to put in a little effort...


Pemex Says Offshore Oil Well Fire Extinguished

State oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos announced Wednesday it has extinguished a fire at an offshore oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, and will resume work on plugging an oil and natural gas leak at the site.


Fascism, feudalism, and the future

You can look through history books in vain for examples of urban populations invading the countryside en masse in the twilight years of civilizations, but the motif remains stuck firmly in place. The inhabitants of Willits, one of the few American towns that have taken the imminence of peak oil seriously, have apparently laid plans to blow up highway bridges leading into town from the south, to keep those imaginary mobs at bay. Willits is in liberal northern California, but it’s embraced the same fantasy that leads survivalists on the opposite end of the political spectrum to indulge in wet dreams about automatic weapons blazing away at marauding hordes.


All the world must tackle the fallout of China's growth

The environment problem in China is deadly serious. If we do not solve it, the world is going to be in a very bad way. Humanity made a major mistake 200 years ago and now east or west does not matter - everyone is involved.


Where’s That Energy Bill?

Two months ago, Washington was filled with hope that Congress would produce an energy bill that would begin to address the two great challenges of oil dependency and climate change. Each chamber had approved respectable if incomplete measures that could be combined in one outstanding bill. Then the bills disappeared into the back rooms as Democratic leaders tried to negotiate a final product.

These talks have now reached a dangerous point. With both houses feeling pressure to do something — anything — to deal with high oil prices, there’s a real danger that one or more essential provisions could be dropped just for the sake of producing a bill.


Thomas L. Friedman: Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda

In the wake of 9/11, some of us pleaded for a “patriot tax” on gasoline of $1 or more a gallon to diminish the transfers of wealth we were making to the very countries who were indirectly financing the ideologies of intolerance that were killing Americans and in order to spur innovation in energy efficiency by U.S. manufacturers.

But no, George Bush and Dick Cheney had a better idea. And the Democrats went along for the ride. They were all going to let the market work and not let our government shape that market — like OPEC does.

You’d think that one person, just one, running for Congress or the Senate would take a flier and say: “Oh, what the heck. I’m going to lose anyway. Why not tell the truth? I’ll support a gasoline tax.”


Iraq to Blacklist Firms Which Signed Oil Deals with Kurds

Iraq warned Thursday foreign oil companies which signed deals with the autonomous Kurdish regional government will be barred from doing business in the country and from exporting oil.

"Any company that has signed contracts without the approval of the federal authority of Iraq will not have any chance of working with the government of Iraq," Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said.


Give OPEC Reason To Pump More

With oil at $91 a barrel, is OPEC being cruel for not heeding U.S. pleas to hike oil production to lower prices? No, it's just acting in its best interest. The U.S. ought to do the same.


Aramco CEO pulls apart 'doomsday' energy forecasts

Jum’ah concluded his remarks with an exhortation to worry not about “peak oil” scenarios, but to worry about ignoring liquid fuels in our energy policies and investment decisions and discouraging its development and growth on various pretexts.

“Such steps would, without a doubt, stunt the development of new technologies, undermine efforts to produce more environmentally friendly and cleaner liquid fuels, and block some of the available liquid resources from being converted into economic supplies to meet the world’s growing need for energy,” he said.


WEC: Saudi Aramco chief dismisses peak oil fears

His analysis suggested that ultimate recovery from nonconventional resources could range from 1 trillion bbl to more than 2 trillion bbl, depending on whether the figure is a conservative or target one. There is great scope for improved recovery, Jum'ah stressed. "I believe that recovery rates for oil shale will fluctuate over time but that the world's need for liquid fuel supplies over the very long term, coupled with continued advances in technology, mean oil shales will eventually be viable for future generations," he said.


OPEC: U.S. economy slowing, costly oil dents demand

OPEC said on Thursday it sees a modest downturn in the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter due in part to record high oil prices, but booming growth in China and the Middle East will keep world oil demand strong.


Kuwait recognizes responsibility to meet future global oil needs -- minister

Kuwait will remain committed as a major oil producer to utilize its resources for the welfare of its people, while recognizing its responsibility to meet the future oil needs of the world community, said Kuwait's Electricity and Water Minister and Acting Oil Minister Mohammad Al-Olaim on Thursday.

Speaking at a seminar held on the sidelines of the Third OPEC Summit, scheduled for Saturday, the minister said his country was working to provide the oil market with oil and petroleum products by expanding its production and refining capacity.


Tupi Oil Find Could Prompt Brazil to Limit Private Oil Companies

Brazil is one of the few countries in the world to have opened up its oil industry to the private sector in recent years, just as many governments have sought to cash in on sky-high oil prices by increasing state controls.

That may be about to change with last week's confirmation of the largest oil discovery ever made in Brazil, which could mark a major turnaround in the country's relatively


Pasta panic strikes Italy

The story behind the price hike is a global saga involving agricultural policies, commodity-market speculation, the growing use of ethanol as an alternative fuel, and Australian drought.


European Food Prices Soar by the Most in Five Years

Soaring food and energy prices have propelled inflation to a level that ECB policy makers call a "serious risk." While ECB members say they are ready to increase interest rates to prevent rising inflation expectations from triggering a price spiral, cooling economic growth may limit their ability to act, economists say.


A green light for Eurostar: The train that takes the eco-strain

When the first Eurostar left St Pancras for Paris yesterday, it wasn't just the convenience that passengers were excited about: it was the environmental friendliness.


EU Body Adopts Strict Rules For Airline Emissions

Airlines flying in and out of the European Union should join the bloc's emissions trading system in 2011 and submit to strict caps on their output of greenhouse gases, the European Parliament has voted on Tuesday.

The EU assembly, in its first reading on a bill that has drawn ire from the United States and other nations, voted to set a tighter limit on aviation's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than first proposed by the European Commission.


China power plant emissions to rise 60% by 2017

Climate-warming emissions from China's power plants -- already among the world's worst greenhouse polluters -- will rise by some 60 percent in the next decade, a new global database showed on Wednesday.


As China's Mega Dam Rises, So Do Strains and Fear

The slopes of Chenjialing Village have shuddered and groaned lately, cracking and warping homes and fields, and making residents fear the banks of China's swelling Three Gorges Dam may hold deadly perils.

The vast hydro scheme is meant to subdue the Yangtze River, but as the water levels rise, parts of its shores have strained and cracked, dismaying scientists and officials and alarming villages such as Chenjialing in Badong County.


Oil prices will inevitably hit $100 - former OPEC head

Oil prices will inevitably hit 100 usd due to falling stocks in the US, higher demand during the winter months, and weakness in the dollar, according to Dr Subroto, the former Secretary General of OPEC.

'The price of oil at 100 usd is unavoidable, it will take place,' said Dr Subroto, speaking at the third OPEC summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia this morning.


PetroChina to Raise Oil Processing 12% to Meet Demand

PetroChina Co., the nation's biggest oil producer, plans to increase crude processing volume by 12 percent this year to help ease domestic fuel shortages.

PetroChina plans to process 120 million metric tons (about 2.4 million barrels a day) of oil this year, Vice President Liu Hongbin told reporters after a conference in Beijing today. The company processed 2.15 million barrels a day of oil last year. The latest projection is also higher than a March forecast for refining volume to reach 2.25 million barrels a day in 2007.


W.Africa oil exports to China surge to record level

Chinese demand for West African crude surged to a record level in December as the country's refiners looked to replenish dwindling stockpiles, traders said on Thursday.

The world's second-largest energy consumer bought 919,000 barrels per day of mainly Nigerian and Angolan crude for December loading. That is up 159,000 bpd from the previous month and matches China's record demand reached in March 2006.

"China has been drawing down its stocks in the past few months, but they are now faced with having to refill their boots," a West Africa trader said.


U.K. May Have to Increase Nuclear Output to Meet Carbon Target

The U.K. may have to increase its nuclear power capacity in order to meet its goal for cutting carbon-dioxide emissions over the next 35 years, according to a study by market research company Datamonitor Plc.

It's unlikely that renewable energy sources including wind farms will be able to fill the future supply void that will be left by decommissioning fossil-fuel burning units as the U.K. attempts to cut emissions by 60 percent from 1990 levels by 2050, Datamonitor said today in an e-mailed report.


Algeria Plans Solar Power Cable to Germany

An Algerian company is planning to build a power cable to Germany to export solar-generated electricity from the Sahara, a state-owned newspaper reported on Wednesday.


Cars out as London mayor clears way for Paris-style plage and cycle boulevards

Cars will be banned from some of London’s busiest streets as part of a bold plan to create continental-style boulevards devoted to pedestrians and cyclists.


Any energy efforts by Congress seem awfully late

Congress is committed to work out some form of legislation that could reduce our consumption of foreign oil. Good luck. Trying to get a handle on this country’s dependency on oil for its energy needs in transportation is like trying to swing onto a speeding train that left the station long ago.


Solv-Ex Chief Who Scammed Investors Says He's Outsmarted Exxon

As chairman of the oil company Solv- Ex Corp. in the 1990s, John Rendall triggered $825 million in losses for investors when his attempt to pump crude from Canadian bogs failed and a U.S. judge fined him for lying about it to shareholders.

Now, with crude holding above $90 a barrel, Rendall is back in the business, saying he's figured out how to extract oil from stones in the Australian outback.


Iran to increase oil production to 4.5 mln bpd despite sanctions

Iran aims to increase its oil production capacity to 4.5 mln barrels per day within the next two years, despite the increasing pressure of US-led sanctions against the Islamic republic over its disputed nuclear programme.


Shell confirms major pipeline feeding export terminal attacked in Nigeria

A major pipeline feeding one of Royal Dutch Shell PLC's two main oil export terminals in southern Nigeria was attacked and ruptured by unknown assailants, the company said Thursday.

Precious Okolobo, a spokesman for Shell in Lagos, said the affected pipeline supplies crude oil to the Forcados oil export terminal.

...Any impact on production from the facility isn't yet known but the traders said the facility had scheduled a 110,000 barrels of crude a day export program for November and 130,000 barrels a day program for December export.


Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: Our Government is Speaking

You have to be quiet… and listen very carefully, for our government is trying to tell us something. If the news were good, of course, the White House would announce it at the daily press conference. If the news were very good, the President himself might come out into the rose garden and tell us the news himself.

But this news is bad, perhaps very bad, so the government relies on a third tier civil servant to break the bad news gradually so as not get the people too upset or cause a run on anything—banks, mutual funds, gas stations, or grocery stores. The bad news of course is something that many of us have been aware of for many months; this is likely to be a very tough winter for energy prices.


OPEC stays deaf to calls for higher ouput

OPEC producers on Thursday defied pressure from consumer nations to raise oil output, saying the market was amply supplied and that blame for near 100-dollar prices lay outside the cartel.

"Why should we increase production?" said Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, who claimed a production hike would have no influence on prices.


Major oil crisis looms ever closer in the U.S.

When oil prices shot up near $100 a barrel late in October, this unexpected event caught everyone by surprise, including leading oil experts gathered for an annual conference in London.

These participants were already aware that new reserves of oil were getting increasingly harder to find and more expensive to tap. Combined with years of under-investment by the energy industry, this factor has led to a shortage of new oil supplies. This problem shows no signs of abating despite rising energy demand from Asia, South America, the industrialized West and even the Middle East.

Nobody anticipated an oil spike during the "trough," the interval between the driving and heating seasons. Oil ministers from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates attending the conference blamed the slumping dollar, widespread Wall Street speculation and bottlenecks in the refining process.


Can airlines live with $100 oil?

The US air transport market appears to be one of the hardest hit by escalating fuel costs that could result in extensive capacity reduction if carriers, such as United Airlines, actually go ahead and ground aircraft if ticket price hikes passed on to the travelling public result in a fall-off in demand.


Heating Oil Spike Alarms Downeasters

With the cost of crude oil approaching $100 a barrel and Mainers paying more than $3 a gallon for heating oil, the state’s oil dealers want to know why.

Consumers, on the other hand, want to know what — as in what can they do to make it through the winter.

“It’s unbelievable how frantic they’re getting,” Rusty Roberts said of the area residents who turn to the Tree of Life Food Pantry in Blue Hill when they’re in need. “I don’t know what they’re going to do. I don’t know what’s going to happen to these people.”


Unmanned pumps may prove petrol lifeline

MORE unmanned petrol pumps could open across the Highlands as part of efforts to retain a network of lifeline outlets in remote areas.

The number of filling stations in the region has plummeted in recent years as businesses find it increasingly difficult to remain viable. Councillors will hear today that in 1975 there were 348 in the area, but this fell to 105 by 2005. This year the figure is down to 100, with 35 having shut in the past seven years.


OPEC Has Big Role To Play In Dealing With Climate Change - UN

"Oil will continue to play a pivotal role in the global energy mix for many decades to come, not least due to growing global energy demand," Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change said at the seminar, according to an emailed statement.

"But oil will have to be decarbonized with adequate technologies. OPEC can deliver a big part of the solution to climate change," he said.


States test-drive hybrid school buses

The big yellow school bus is going green.

With an eye on reducing emissions — and the cost of diesel fuel topping $3.50 per gallon — eight states are testing 11 hybrid buses, and more are on the way.


Bush aide denies wanting testimony cut

The president's science adviser said Wednesday he recommended some changes in global warming testimony by the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention but denied he wanted entire pages cut.


Greenhouse gases rising faster than UN forecasts: report

Greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster than worst-case predictions by the United Nations' top climate change body, said a new Australian report issued Thursday.

The report by the independent Climate Institute found emissions were rising faster than forecast by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with possibly devastating effects.

"Greenhouse emissions are rising faster than the worst-case IPCC scenarios," it said.

OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report is out with the production numbers for October. The OPEC 10 increased their oil production by 290 kb/d. Saudi Arabia was up 180 kb/d to 8.73 mb/d. The UAE was up 40 kb/d, Venezuela up 30 kb/d and Algeria up 20 kb/d were the other big gainers. Indonesia and Libya showed no change and Qatar was down 10 kb/d.

The real surprise here was Venezuela. Venezuela had been in a gradual but slightly erratic decline for two and one half years with an average decline of 12 kb/d each month. They lost 370 kb/d of production over a 30 month period. Yet this month they managed to add 30 kb/d. However during that 30 month period of slow declines, there were a couple of gains even greater than 30 kb/d so we will just have to wait and see what happens.

OPEC 10 quotas for November is 27,253 kb/d and their production in October was 27,010 kb/d. So in October they produced 243 kb/d less than their November quota. Any bets on how close they come in November?

The two members who are not subject to OPEC quotas were both up considerably. Iraq was up 190 kb/d and Angola up 70 kb/d.

Ron Patterson

Ron,

Do you know what the year over year change is for the OPEC 12 (October to October)?

Jeff, the OPEC 10, those members subject to quotas, was down 490,000 barrels per day, October 2006 to October 2007. That is using the data from OPEC's own Monthly Oil Market Report.

The OPEC 11, including Iraq but excluding Angola, who was not an OPEC member in 2006, then OPEC October to October was down only 220 kb/d.

But if you include Angola, who's production is really booming, then OPEC 12 production was up 204 kb/d.

October OPEC production:
OPEC 10 27,010,000 barrels per day (Less Angola and Iraq)
OPEC 11 29,240,000 barrels per day (Less Angola)
OPEC 12 31,000,000 barrels per day

Ron Patterson

I guess these numbers would correlate to the EIA's crude only numbers?

BTW, where is the production surge coming from that the IEA estimated for October?

FYI--I estimate that the top five net exporters are going to show at least a 500,000 bpd increase in domestic consumption from 2006 to 2007.

Well, they are usually pretty close but never the same. OPEC 12 for August, from the EIA was 30,200,000 bp/d. For August from OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report was 30,390,000 bp/d.

But my October 2006 data for Angola came from the EIA as OPEC did not include Angola in their reports from 2006.

The IEA says their Non-OPEC boost came from:

Recovery in China and Azerbaijan plus rising Russian output boosted non-OPEC supplies.

But we shall see.

Ron Patterson

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3239#comment-263725

So how goes the emergency Ron. Has the sheer panic that you expected to grip the world sent us spiraling in to a severe depression? Did oil go up 50% today cause OPEC had nothing left to pump? Since you've been so quiet today, I can only assume that last months production data surprised you as well, and trashed a few PEAK NOW talking points along the way.

You wouldn't be so obnoxious if you weren't so dishonest.

Ron was 100% correct.

The data due out tomorrow in OPEC's Monthly Oil Report will tell the story. What they show tomorrow will be it. Perhaps a few more barrels in November but not very much.

And he said it would take months to get the story out

The cat is about to be let out of the bag and OPEC is in a sheer panic. They have been lying all these years about those vast, vast oil reserves. The world swallowed it, hook, line and sinker. And when the cat finally escapes that bag, in the next couple of months, all hell will break loose.

And what did OPEC offer the world? Excuses for why they no longer control the price of oil

OPEC must, they simply must, find some way to save face. And that is what this emergency meeting is all about

Except that OPECs production was up almost 300k bpd, and this was before the quota increase which started this month. If they were pumping flat out as everyone said, where did this extra 300k bpd come from? Did they blow hot air up their butts all these years and create a ton of NG for later use? Did they store it in giant super containers to mask their decline? Which conspiracy theory shall we pick?

None of course.

The fact is, most people here called it wrong. Robert at least suggested that we be cautious. I have been saying they would do this all year. Remember when I said I would leave if they didn't deliver? Well they have, and I wont have too now. I understand your frustration with being wrong, but at least make an attempt at admitting you called the peak wrong yet again and move on. Sucks having 2 years of rhetoric go out the window in a day though, doesn't it?

Except I said you are dishonest. And you are.

So how goes the emergency Ron. Has the sheer panic that you expected to grip the world sent us spiraling in to a severe depression? Did oil go up 50% today cause OPEC had nothing left to pump?

Ron claimed it would take months for the status of OPEC to be known.
" And when the cat finally escapes that bag, in the next couple of months, all hell will break loose."

And he didn't say OPEC wouldn't increase in OCT, he said the increase in Oct/Nov will be OPECS last gasp.
"The data due out tomorrow in OPEC's Monthly Oil Report will tell the story. What they show tomorrow will be it. Perhaps a few more barrels in November but not very much."

But I guess this is how you get your rocks off.

I counseled you when you first joined this board that your dishonesty effects your credibility. To little avail I'm afraid.

What the world eats
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1626519_1373675,00.html

note the diffirence between the fresh & whole food for the "poorer" people against processed food for the "wealthier".

Who will suffer most from PO? And who d'ya think is healthier?

Always good to remind ourselves when talking about population pressures and FF dependence. Who 'needs' 10 cal. of FF energy for each 1 cal. of food production and who does not.
Looked at another way as FFs contract, will it be easier to balance the system by demand destruction for billions and billions or for a few hundred million Euro/Americans?
Pick your post peak diet
1.Frozen, long distance, meat rich, highly packaged and very vulnerable to PO. or
2.The opposite

As best as I can tell, the Ecuadorians probably have the healthiest diet in terms of food quality - lots of fresh fruits & vegies, whole grains, no packaged foods. They look only minimally nourished, though, so quantity is probably a bit of an issue; they could probably use just a few more calories/person/day.

It is amazing how much packaged crap there is in the pictures, not just of the Americans but also for much of the rest of the world. One really sees the evidence of it on refuse pickup days when one sees all the massive amounts of containers set out by the street for pickup, all filled with the remnants of packaged goods.

Beginning about two year ago I started cutting out 90% of the processed food in my diet. (Just don't eat anything in a box or package.) I back slide some, but over all my costs are way down and I feel much, much better. And, that's right, less trash going out the back door. (It helps, of course, if you know how to cook from scratch. A lost art.)

More than likely you will get on a kick like I did... Growing your own year round. I am going to be expelling quite a bit of CO2 I am sure by burning grow lights all winter. 2000watts per hour a day 16 hours a day for vegetative growth then switching to 12/12 for flowering periods. It will involve lots of hand pollination and work.

It will be a 200sqft garden. This will all be done hydroponic with aquaculture merged to create aquaponics. By spring I plan on having it expanded and ready to start up my back yard. I will be selling produce grown in my yard. I expect to be able to make a decent side living off of it.

I have neighbors lining up by the droves to purchase my produce! I know my produce will cost more than store purchased but as said the nutritional value of 100% organic grown "less soil so the USDA would never certify me" however I am using inert medium, fish to fertilize, spent beer grains to feed the fish. It will be fish excrement that feeds the plants.

Yep I am exited about getting started with local production. However I have had agriculture on the brain for a long time. Space was the main concern and now that I have learned how to do hydro I am not limited as bad. I may even start to conscript neighbors to let me use their LARGE yards :) they slope on a huge angle so I could get a Machu Piichu effect going on :)

Heres to local production!

*Throws around homebrew beer*

The two remaining options for the U.S. to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons are to force a regime change or use military force to take out suspected weapons locations, the White House's former representative to the United Nations said yesterday.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20071113/NATION/111130036/1002/NA...

It's hard to notice with the size of the photo's but if you look at the poorer and more tradtional nations(the africa one you have to read the info below to know they eat freshly slaughtered meat) have a higher ratio of meat, mostly red, over veggies and highly procsessed grains.

Right. All over Africa they are feasting on freshly slaughtered meat!

It's for sure that whenever they get meat it will have to be freshly slaughtered, because there isn't much refrigeration in the average African village. On the other hand, I think the question is something like "what is your favorite food?" -- not "what do you eat every day, or whenever you eat."

i said percentage of meat to processed grains and vegi's not the amount of meat.
in the caption bellow the africa picture their favorite meal is stew with fresh goat meat, and because they have no way to preserve the meat for storage after slaughter it's easier for them to keep the goat alive till needed thus the reason why it's not even in the picture.

Please note i how i replied to your comment without sarcasm for insult.

thank you for the correction. no sarcasm intended

A while ago I made a map of Persian Gulf oil facilities, Iranian airfields, Iranian naval facilities, and Persian Gulf islands:

http://198.68.3.198/persian-gulf-v2.kml

This morning, acting on a hint from Alan Drake in yesterday's Drum Beat, I whipped up a quick map of dams in Iran. I am not real proud of this - plenty of problems with the dataset I used, and it'll get proofed at some point in the future.

http://198.68.3.198/iran-dam.kml

Someone else made this one - a map of refineries with capacities:

http://198.68.3.198/oil-refineries.kmz

I've been adding new stuff as time, mood, and information available allows. If you're aware of any sources of information on the Persian Gulf that have a name, latitude, and longitude, but you don't know how to make a KML out of them drop me( gwbush at dumbfuck dot org) a note and I'll see if I can do it up for you.

-SCT

SCT, I would love to see your maps but this PC doesn't even open these kml and kmz files.

As a matter of fact I don't really know much about hardware and software; I'm just capable of operating a PC but when it fails I wouldn't know what to do.

KML/KMZ are Google Earth formats:

http://earth.google.com

Load the program you find there and it will allow you to see the KML file contents.

Great, thanks. Will get to it.

ATTN: Alan Drake

Yesterday you said you'd heard that Iran had an aggressive hydro program with over a hundred dams constructed. I found a dataset of Iranian dam names and coordinates which I turned into a Google Earth KML file:

http://198.68.3.198/iran-dam.kml

I've been reviewing it and the hundred dam count is badly off. The word "Shah" may also be rendered as "Chah", the plain dam name and the name with Sadd-e as a prefix will appear, and the current regime had an aggressive dam renaming program, yet every iteration of the dam's name is a new line in the file. Many locations had five or six different names but the same coordinates.

I've ended up with a KML that has fifteen locations of dams on it. I think I dinged the file and the count is closer to twenty five, but its going to take a while to sort out. In any event this KML isn't entirely accurate and the hundred dam count is definitely wrong ...

-SCT

"Almost 100 Iranian dams" was from a poor memory. It is 79 new dams/hydroelectric plants under construction.

Here is a 2003 article where Iran is evaluating 243 new hydroelectric dams with 79 under construction.

http://www.payvand.com/news/03/sep/1062.html

The link below contains this quote “effort by Iran to increase hydroelectric power generation capacity by 3 300 MW by the end of its five-year development plan in 2010″
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article...

This is a greater effort, at this time, than either Brazil or China are doing (although China has a 10+ GW dam under construction).

Given the limited natural hydrological resources of Iran, I see this as "build any damn dam that they can".

Best Hopes for non-GHG electricity in Iran,

Alan

Well that shoots the heck out of that map, eh? At least I've got the big ones ... we'll bomb those for sure, as they're a wonderful hiding place for the Revolutionary Guard terrorist types.

OMG ... is it 1/20/2009 yet?

"Our options now are, unfortunately, limited," said John R. Bolton, the ex-U.S. ambassador to the United Nations who now faults the Bush administration for "failed diplomacy" toward Iran and North Korea.

I will sue that man for injuries sustained while falling out of my chair laughing. John Bolton finds fault in how the Bush administration conducts diplomacy when he was the poster child for ineffective, unilateral bluster? Unreal.

Or is he trying to cover himself in the event of a trip to The Hague after the fact?

Good cop/bad cop

Don't take anything these criminals say at face value.