DrumBeat: November 26, 2007
Posted by Leanan on November 26, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Cheney: No bailouts, no tax hikes...more oil
So what is Cheney worried about? Oil. Specifically, the prospect of sabotage aimed at disrupting the oil market."Clearly the world depends on a global supply of oil, and that will continue to be true for some considerable period of time. Efforts to shut down the flow of oil could conceivably have a significant impact."
Cheney has done more than worry about it. When President Bush's 2008 budget was coming together, with the goal of balancing the budget in five years, Cheney nevertheless insisted on a $947 million line item: a speedup of the flow of crude into the Texas and Louisiana salt caverns housing the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The budget guys pushed back: Can't we wait until crude prices level off? No, the word came back from Cheney, this was urgent. That was all it took. "He doesn't weigh in on a ton of issues," said a person close to those negotiations. "But when he does . . ."
Toreador: Black Sea project shut down due to damage
Shares of Toreador Resources Corp. fell Monday after the Dallas-based energy company said that, over the weekend, production in the South Akcakoca sub-basin project in the Black Sea was shut down by the Turkish national oil company because of damage to the pipeline spur running to the Akkaya platform....The likely cause of the damage was a fishing boat, the company said.
Years of living dangerously: the wild, wild world
Weather related disasters are increasing in both frequency and savagery and the expansion of human communities into vulnerable habitats along with the increasingly apparent effects of climate change are to blame. A leading British charity has discovered that there has been a fourfold increase in catastrophes such as the floods that swept through South Asia this year affecting more than 250m people.In a new report, Oxfam says that from an average of 120 such annual disasters in the early 1980s, there are now as many as 500 every year. It called on governments to take more convincing steps to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases that a consensus of scientists blame for the temperature increases.
To some extent, the speed and severity of the financial train wreck will occur in a mutually reinforcing relation to what happens in the oil markets. The rise in price is only the mildest symptom of growing instability for the system that allocates the world's most critical resource. Even in the face of "demand destruction," weird changes are occurring in the way that the oil producers do business. The decline in export rates and the new spirit of "oil nationalism" will take center stage now, even if the US economy seizes up. These phenomena will represent a new cycle in world affairs: the global contest for remaining fossil fuel resources.Sooner rather than later, the next symptom will appear: spot shortages around the US and hoarding behavior. This is what will finally wake the American public out of its long sleepwalk (and Matthew Simmons said this first, by the way) -- when the lines form at the gas stations and the tempers flare and the handguns come out of the glove compartments.
Brent Hits High on Dollar, Tight Fundamentals
Brent crude oil futures climbed to an all-time high Monday morning as continued weakness for the dollar and an underlying tight supply and demand balance offered support.
Crude Oil Futures Decline on Signs OPEC Is Increasing Output
Crude oil fell on signs that OPEC is increasing production to reduce record prices and keep the global economy from slowing.The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably boost supply 1.1 percent to 31.6 million barrels a day this month, according to preliminary estimates by PetroLogistics Ltd. The producer group agreed in September to raise production by 500,000 barrels a day starting Nov. 1.
``The Petrologistics numbers are showing a good-size build in OPEC output,'' said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``Most of the increase is from Iraq, which is fairly encouraging.''
Pemex: Examining Options as it Seeks to Extinguish Fire
Mexican state oil giant Pemex said it is examining various options as it seeks to extinguish a fire at a well from which crude oil has been spilling into the Gulf of Mexico for a month, among them tearing down a rig to prevent damage to an adjacent platform and further leaks.
Turkmenistan announced on Friday that it would raise the gas price for Gazprom by 30%.The Russian energy giant actually sighed with relief, as it had long expected Ashgabat to raise the prices, and $130 per 1,000 cubic meters is a moderate price for today, considerably lower than the rumored $150. In the end, the news is one more proof that Russia's increase of gas prices for Ukraine is justified.
Carbon price must rise in order to hit emissions target, warns CBI
The report says that prices will need to rise from about €24 per tonne at present on the European emissions trading scheme to between €60 and €90 per tonne.“The establishment of a reliable long-term price for carbon is vital to pull through new technologies,” Ian Conn, a member of the taskforce and group managing director of BP, said.
An audacious proposal to build a 5,000-mile electricity supergrid, stretching from Siberia to Morocco and Egypt to Iceland, would slash Europe's CO2 emissions by a quarter, scientists say.
The horse: Is this the secret weapon to beat global warming?
The French are mounting a transport revolution led by the humble horse, using it in more than 70 towns to pull schoolbuses and to collect refuse.
Nuclear industry may be running out of steam
Rumours of a nuclear power renaissance have been greatly exaggerated. So says an audit of the nuclear power industry released on Wednesday.The report, commissioned by The Greens, a European parliamentary group, points out that many ageing reactors are due to close before 2030, and that 338 new ones would have to be built just to replace them.
Iran needs nuclear program for its future: Larijani
Iran is in need of its nuclear program for the sake of future, said Iran's former top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani."Those who refer to Iran's oil and gas resources to prevent Iran's nuclear progress are not far-sighted," he added "we know how much is left from our oil and gas resources; we will face shortage in the future."
PEMEX, Mexican Petroleum: Is Privatization In Store?
One of the issues of greatest importance, yet too the most sensitive, is the possibility of private investment – including foreign investment – in the sacrosanct area of Petroleos Mexicanos, PEMEX, Mexico’s state-owned petroleum conglomerate that came into being following the expropriation of oil and gas in 1938. Always a contentious matter, with fervent sociopolitical opposition from a number of directions, today there may be at least a possibility of opening some areas of involvement related to crude oil and natural gas to private sector participation.
Norway sees no respite to high oil prices
Oil prices will probably remain high for “a while ahead” due to global uncertainty, especially in the Middle East, Norway's Petroleum and Energy Minister Aaslaug Haga told Reuters on Monday....She said that Norway's oil output has decreased more than expected over the past years as its North Sea oilfields mature but voiced hope that increased exploration activity could help arrest the trend in the longer-term.
Newcastle Coal Price Reaches Record for Fifth Week
Coal prices at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for supplies in Asia, rose to a record for a fifth week on concern there will be supply shortages as mining companies are advised of capacity restrictions next year.
China: Refined oil prices steady after output increased
Refined oil prices in China have stabilized after the country's major refineries increased production capacity. The unit price for diesel in Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality even dropped 10 percent from a week ago.
From an economic standpoint, a change in the denomination of oil from the dollar to a basket of currencies or to an alternate single currency like the euro would have a negligible direct effect on global markets, says Dean Baker, co-director for the Center for Economic and Policy Research. The market for dollars and euros is so deep that enormous transactions between the currencies take place in seconds.Furthermore, futures markets like the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange trade crude oil in dollars, so oil would retain a strong bond to the U.S. dollar even if OPEC was to distance itself from it.
Kuwait, Mongolia look into oil deal details
Kuwaiti and Mongolian sides are expected to meet together here on Monday evening to probe the details of a memo of understanding on a further oil cooperation between both countries.
Nepal: Petrol Pump Owners in East Stop Buying Fuel from NOC
Owners of petrol pumps based in the eastern region have stopped buying petroleum products from the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) from on Sunday.Demanding that supply of petroleum products be eased, code of conduct for petroleum sellers and quality control regime be scrapped, they have been staging an agitation since November 18. They have also demanded that petrol pumps be given the sole authority to supply petroleum products to big industries.
Electricity Cuts Spell Impending Humanitarian Disaster, Gazans Cannot Even Properly Bury Their Dead
Israel plans to greatly reduce the supply of electricity to the Gaza Strip beginning December 2, according to Jamal Al Dardasawi, spokesman of The Palestinian Electricity Company. Although Israel has given advance notice of its plans, this pre-punishment time will do nothing to alleviate the catastrophic consequences which will ensue, given that borders and firmly shut and Gazans will have no way to prepare and compensate for this vital loss.
OPEC oil exports fall 340,000 bpd in H1 Nov - Lloyds
OPEC seaborne oil exports, excluding Angola, fell 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of November versus the last two weeks of October, crude oil loading data released by Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit (LMIU) showed on Monday.The London-based consultancy said oil shipments from 11 OPEC members, including Iraq, averaged 22.48 million bpd on a moving average basis to Nov. 11, down from 22.82 million bpd for 15-28 October loading.
Oil prices and responding to the strange lack of response
The system we live under is a very sick master on his last legs. To plan on his existence and make some "good money" for a "nest egg" is to bow down to his putrid, merciless form when it's not far from rigor mortis. Meanwhile, his system is taking our lives and the web of life down, for the profit of the few. Almost everyone claims to be helpless to change his or her ways because "bills must be paid." But slashing consumption and keeping purchases local aren't very difficult and wiould deal a final blow to the system, and help save the climate maybe. Oh yeah, the climate we once could count on.
Energy for growth and poverty reduction in developing nations
Because energy is not an inexhaustible resource, the strategies that we as a global community adopt to enhance efficiency of its utilization will have significant impacts on the sustainability of the available resources in the very long term. Even in the case of hydroelectricity, as our lakes and rivers continue to dry up, we can no longer regard this as an inexhaustible resource. The actions we take will determine the energy future of our interdependent world.
Why China’s Bubble Economy Could Go Into Freefall
Bloomberg reports that, “China urged local governments to set up an early warning system to ensure sufficient oil supplies at filling stations, which face shortages across the nation.” China faces chronic energy shortages and the social and political instability those shortages foster with the population.Do you get the feeling the communists in Beijing are barely keeping the Chinese economy together with bailing wire and duct tape? We don’t mean that China’s growth is a fluke. We mean that the tremendous growth unleashed is beyond the control of a central planner. The inability to maintain a fixed price for fuel is one example.
Re-reading the article I wrote for the November/ December 1988 issue of World Watch was startling- and discouraging.The article, titled "The Heat Is On," was written just a few months after NASA scientist James Hansen testified before the U.S. Senate, reporting that for the first time there was clear scientific evidence of global warming - and that it was most likely caused by human activity.
I wrote at the time, "Only rarely are public policy turning points so clearly marked. Scientists had accumulated empirical evidence for a phenomenon with the potential to fundamentally alter life on Earth." I devoted much of the remainder of the article to laying out a strategy for dealing with climate change.
Twenty years later, Hansen's testimony still looks like a turning point for climate science, but not the kind of turning point for climate policy that I anticipated. In the years since, there's been a lot of heat-but sadly, not a lot of action.
Small steps, big energy savings
Not all of the potential solutions to climate change are futuristic, expensive or exotic. In fact, most Americans can find one of the most significant carbon-reducing innovations of the last 30 years standing in their kitchens, keeping the butter hard.
U, Met. Council aim to turn algae into fuel
The University and the Metropolitan Council recently partnered to explore whether the large amounts of algae that come through the council's wastewater treatment plants could one day be used as a fuel source for metro buses.
Stanford Law alumnus Miles Rubin has amassed enough money as a lawyer and business leader to retire more than comfortably, but the 78-year-old multi-millionaire has delayed retirement to pursue his dream of changing the world — one automobile at a time.
Oil prices make fresh assault on 100 dollars
Oil prices breached 99 dollars a barrel Monday to stand close to an unprecedented century as traders fretted over tight crude supplies globally, dealers said.New York's main contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, struck as high as 99.11 dollars, not far off its record high of 99.29.
Oil output from Sakhalin-2 suspended for rest of year after severe weather
Oil production at the OAO Gazprom-led Sakhalin-2 project was suspended last week for the rest of the year after severe weather conditions damaged a buoy, the Gazprom venture operating the project said Sunday.The project normally produces 80,000 barrels a day of oil, but the production has been interrupted earlier than expected, said a spokesman for the venture, Sakhalin Energy Investment Co. Ltd.
Lundin North Sea Oil Platform Remains Shut After Fire
Lundin Petroleum AB, a Swedish oil company, said the 5,000-barrel-a-day Thistle Alpha oil platform in the North Sea remains shut after a fire broke out in a turbine yesterday.Lundin is looking into the cause of the fire and cannot say when the production of oil, used in the Brent blend, will resume, said Maria Hamilton, head of corporate communications for Lundin.
Iran Eyes Deal Over Kuwait Sea Border Before Year End
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Sunday Tehran hopes to resolve a decades-old dispute with neighboring Kuwait over their maritime border before the end of the year."We hope to see an end to the issue before the end of the year," Mottaki told a press a conference when asked about demarcating the sea border which includes the offshore Dorra gas field.
USGS: Arctic Russia Sea Holds 9.3B BBL, 32TCF Unfound Oil, Gas
The Laptev Sea shelf underneath Russia's Arctic waters holds an estimated 9.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent and 32.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in undiscovered resources, the U.S. Geological Survey said Friday.The USGS is currently reassessing its estimation of the petroleum resource base in the Arctic circle based on new data, region by region.
Very few are willing even to utter the words "peak oil," and when they do, they insist that the world is not near peak as construed by a misguided peak oil movement. Instead, they substitute words such as "plateau." A Chevron vice president has used that word to describe our oil future. And, it is fitting that he used the word at a Cambridge Energy Research Associates-sponsored confab since CERA was the first to coin the phrase. CERA, however, believes a plateau--which they further qualify as an "undulating plateau"--won't occur until the 2030s and then will go on for 20 to 30 years. Any constraints before then, they say, will be due to "above-ground factors."
Legislators want state to plan for oil shortage
A coalition of state lawmakers has issued a report that concludes Connecticut is "completely unprepared" for what experts are forecasting as a sharply constrained supply of oil in the world."However, early intervention can and will mitigate the severity of impacts on the state and our people," says the report from the Peak Oil Caucus of the General Assembly.
Energy expert Udall looks to the future
Our peak oil conference in Houston in October was the largest in the world this year. The Wall Street Journal ran a cover article on the topic this week. People are beginning to understand that energy — not the yen, euro or dollar — is the original currency, the source of all wealth. Most of the Houston presenters were Republicans, and the audience included many financial managers. Visit www.theoildrum.com, if you are interested in following the evolving discussion. Global oil production may have already peaked; if not, it will do so in the next four years. This topic is likely to soon dwarf climate change as a matter of public concern.
Renewable energy way forward for poor countries: Germany
Industrial nations should help poorer nations to develop renewable energy from the wind and sun, Germany's environment minister said Monday, days before a conference on the world's response to climate change."Prosperity for everyone is possible and it is compatible with the environment," Sigmar Gabriel said in an interview with Bild newspaper.
China, France sign climate change pact
Chinese President Hu Jintao and his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday oversaw the signing of a bilateral pact on the fight against climate change.
Getting the geothermal ball rolling
If everybody agrees the technology is great, why is nothing being done?
It's one thing to talk. It's another to get a shovel and start digging long 6 feet deep trenches all around your back yard --if you have a backyard at all.
Indeed, far better to defer any problem to future generations rather than absorb any inconvenience or cost ourselves.
I re-energized my house last year using German subsidies.
Retooling with a heat pump would have been much too expensive.
But I've been thinking a LOT about heat pump (in this case geo-thermaly supported) technology. Why ain't it the silver bullet we've been looking for?
The only answer I have is that you can't bottle it and sell it to your neighbor. If you use it in your own home, you might "save" money in the long run. But you can't "make" money by producing electicity and putting it back in the grid.
Or does anyone have a way of using a heat pump to create electricity or charge a battery? Sort of a refrigerator in reverse??
Thanks, Dom
If I dig a 6 foot hole in my back yard, or front yard, I hit water.
Excellent. That probably means you have hit the water table. You can use the specific heat properties of water in your water table as a heat sink in the summer and as a heat source in the winter.
My smallish back yard is a 250 million year old coral reef, with about 4 inches of dirt dropped on it by the developer of the neighborhood. Hard to dig in. The HVAC guy I use follows the conventional logic: unless I'm going to live in the house for decades, I should just install oldfashioned air-sink units and leave it to the next owner of the house to fix.
So a geothermal project could go vertical, but I've been told that Austin (and Texas) has some funny environmental rules about withdrawing groundwater. (Edwards Aquifer and all that; apparently San Antonio and the salamanders both have some sort of claim on it) Or even drilling. Also, I don't know anyone with a backhoe, let alone drilling equipment.
So it looks like a little more research will be needed. My own vision for this particular climate was a pile of rocks with a little fountain to keep them wet. Let that be the heat sink for your cooling loop. Looks like I have to move out of the city to build a thing like that, though.
I'm in the midst of getting a geothermal heat pump installed. We're not doing the trench thing. We're going to run the loops vertically.
It's pretty pricey to retrofit an existing home. It is probably going to cost us around 25K USD to do the whole thing. At current energy costs, the payback time is going to be around 15 years. That's a big chunk of change and a long payback time for most people, especially considering that a lot of people don't plan on being in their house in 15 years. For new construction, however, it is a no-brainer.
Of course, "current energy costs" is the operative phrase. I'm actually expecting the thing to pay for itself in 5 years or so.
These costs are screwed up.
Three years ago I installed a Florida brand 4 ton geo-thermal heat pump in my log house. It cost me about $2200 or less for the unit.
The only other cost was to run some 1" PVC from the incoming water line in the basement. I ran the output down a line I had set long ago for gray water...it goes down a holler right behind the house and seeps back down into the aquifer, over time...this feed a creek where springs come out further down..
owever that loghouse has not been sold at auction and I have moved into smaller living quarters here on my land and h
lost of springs off this aquifer(or water bearing strata) all over this area..so the water runs out on the ground and I don't feel that I am drawing down the aquifer(or seam).
I could rather have installed another line back to the wellhead and dumped the output there back into my well.
Rather I intended to later borrow a buddies back hoe and lay my own ground loops..probably at a cost of less than $1,000.
The unit is super efficient and has a lot of builtin safeguards. I also had it loaded with heat strips in case of the well going out. The heat strips never ever come on unless someone pushes the thermostat up more than 4 degrees.
It cools and heats my 4500 sq ft log house fine...the basement not needing any cooling or heating as I find it comfortable just as it is.
Note: The 4500 sq ft includes the basement which is not finished living area.
I do agree that in suburbia that a geothermal is not usually going to work. Not enough space and most on city water hookup. If everyone went to using wellwater in a given area then perhaps they might create problems with the supply unless you dump it back in.
The best solution is to build in a area which has flowing spring creeks which you could dam up and lay coils in that would feed the heat exchanger in the heatpump. Or perhaps a nearby cave. A pond might also work if deep enough. Lay the pipe down in the bottom before you close the dam. The last pond I built only cost me for the dozer work ..about $400 back in the late 80s. If you have the land a box blade and front loader on a good sized tractor could do the job.Say 80 hp diesel or up.
airdale
PS. Note that I did all the install work myself. It was not that hard. I have worked on a/c and heatpumps in the past,replacing compressors,pulling vacumn,etc..but this unit was all selfcontained and far far simpler. Running pvc is simple as well...but copper in 8 ga and heavier has gone up tremendously in price...I put it on two circuit breakers..one is 60a and the heat strips on a 50a...
I use an amp-probe to measure the current and in normal run mode I pull about 15 to 20 on each leg. Once the biomass of the wood logs absorb the heat or cool...the environment remains very very stable and the unit runs very infrequently. Not like in a interior made of drywall. I also used nothing but Andersen windows in the house for high energy efficiency.
Wow. I think I may have made a strategic error in my heating.
I'm currently in the process of replacing my oil-fired boiler with a wood-pellet boiler, which will cut my heating bill in half and pay for itself in 6 to 8 years (even) at current prices.
I eliminated the idea of geothermal, because it seemed ill-adapted to retrofitting an old stone farmhouse (low temperature water not suitable for the existing radiators). But I was concentrating on ground-loop systems... and my property is rotten with springs. Including one which runs right under the house and takes my sewage away (more or less... but that's another, unsavoury story).
I will try to understandd more of what you wrote, Airdale, because there is probably something fairly easy and cheap that I can do with a heat pump...
But it will probably wait a year or two, I suspect the tech will be more widely available then.
COOL TUBE - Low-tech Geothermal Option
It can be hard to find much info on it, but my family built a house in the White Mts in Western Maine around 1980, and included a 'Cool Tube' in the design, whereby the 4" PVC Drainpiping that surrounded the foundation a bit below the frost-line (about 50" around here) had a spur added to it that went a ways off (50'?) and emerged as an Air Intake, (with squirrel-screen on it and a j-turn to keep rain out..) while another spur came into the house and up through the slab near the kitchen plumbing lines, so that air drawn in by the house's natural convection was brought up from the winter temps into the 40-45 degree range by it's long travel through the submerged drains before entering the house.
This provided an oxygen-rich air supply at a decent temp, which is very helpful in a home that relies on any kind of combustion-based heating. It also can balance out the negative pressure that draws excessive COLD winter air in any crack, or anytime a door or window is opened, even momentarily.
A small fan can be added to help create a Positive Pressure from the Cool Tube to further defeat any Infiltration. This system also helps in the Summer, bringing nice cool and fresh air into the home, and keeping leaks from allowing the Hot Ambient Air in.. though some systems and warmer regions need to be more careful about condensation and hence, Mold Issues.
I'm eager to try a "Cool Tube" retrofit in my In-town 1850 bldg Basement, where the Heat Exchange will use the stone walls/foundation perimeter to bring up the temps of the frigid winter air..
I've still got more insulation going on right now.. but I'm hoping I can get a roughed in test for this going this winter, as well as the 'Winter Fridge', which is a simple (!?) Heatexchanger using Antifreeze, Propylene Glycol to grab some Winter Cold and Help my fridge stay cool while it lives absurdly inside a house that I'm paying to keep WARM..
Hopeful in the face of multiple Ironies!
Bob Fiske
Excellent work, Bob. Any performance data or other specifics to share would be useful to others.
IMO, GHPs have evolved to compete with traditional HVAC systems, but are still very costly right now in comparison to air-exchange heat pumps or oil and gas heaters and electric A/C.
Nonetheless, a fundamental resource is the near-constant temperature thermal reservoir below 10 ft or so from the surface. More novel designs and work to use this (renewable) resource would have Hugh benefits during the time when FFs become scarce and grossly expensive and the time when solar/wind (or nuclear, regrettably) become the dominant source of energy supply.
Adaptation. It’s in the genes. Well, for some of us.
They might work depending on your climate. but to say they 'compete' is flat out wrong. come back and claim that when one can get one installed for a couple thousand dollars. 27-30k is way too much.
compete means to do what conventional HVAC systems do. I mentioned they are expensive, but on a life-cycle cost basis GHPs and conventional systems are often within 25%, and price competitive for new construction.
I also mentioned they are expensive at the current prices for FFs. The energy savings will tip the cost balance when FF prices double or more.
My point was to suggest with some experimentation, there are likely ways to tap the below-ground thermal reservoir suitable for one's local climate, and bypass the high current costs for closed loop systems. And Bob above was pointing out one.
Why would you expect something that could save you close to $2000 a year (at current energy prices) would have to be "installed for a couple thousand dollars"? Given where energy prices are headed, it is my old electric AC plus heating oil that can't compete with geothermal.
People really need to start taking a longer-range view of things. The days of cheap energy are coming to an end. The cost of doing something about home energy consumption is only going to go up, as is the cost of not doing something.
We're stuck on 'Cheap, Fast, Easy' solutions.. People do keep whining that Alt Energy installations are expensive. Yes, they are, and soon, so will everything be..
My Mom told me about a Music Student with a Russian Teacher, and the student complained that the piece He'd been assigned was hard.. and the teacher excitedly came back with 'Good! Hard is Good!' Words to live by!
Of course, sometimes cheap is good, if you aren't embarrassed by thinking you've been 'cheap'.. Part of the mode of thinking we have to challenge in 'rich-minded' places is that it's not necessarily a form of failure when you economize.. put a patch on your clothes, wear sweaters in a colder house, cook more on Monday and reheat leftovers during the week, grab that half-roll of insulation off the sidewalk trash heap and tighten up your home with it. (you just found $4 on the street!!) Be seen biking where 'normal' people drive.. We have a lot of foolish pride in the way of some of these habit-changes..
Bob
what he said...
Jeff
thirded
good comment - i keep trying to break the STBE-wife out of this mindset.... stil she'd prefer to buy new and throw away so that her friends think we're loaded with money instead of flat broke
STBE-wife (?) Sorry, I'm being slow today..
Space Transportation Booster Engine (NASA). That's some wife! ;o)
Soon To Be Ex
Someone had a fancy accountant word for this concept - I said I wanted a wind turbine, they said "not cost effective", I said "very cost effective when its the only source of power". Something [minimum] was the phrase ...
We build datacenters and telco central offices to withstand power outages. I'd like to have a home done to the same standard and I'd like it to be prepped for long periods of standalone time.
Most of you are very wealthy; I can tell because you actually have yards.
The vast majority of Americans are living in barracks-like apartment buildings or rented places and have NO jurisdiction over how things are done.
The result is the energy-saving gadgetry I see in the houses of the wealthy, and the huge energy and water waste I see in the dwellings of the vast majority.
The wealthy will have neato water-shut-off shower heads, the poor will have antiquated tubs with added on showers that are tricky as hell to not get icy-cold or blazing hot, and once set, there's a strong incentive to not mess with the thing - so the water blasts all through the shower. Hell it's even that way here - the owner of this place has a nice easy on/off thing, I just have to blast it. I try to compensate by taking less showers lol.
The wealthy can grow veggies on their lawns, the vast majority of us can't do that, no lawns at all or at best a large shared space, a few pots of veggies may be possible on a patio, but they'll get stolen. So the Safeway or the Supermercado are where we get our veggies, 1000's of transport miles in your salad anyone?
I think it's great that you guys are doing all this neat heat pump stuff, but for the vast majority of Americans, if The Landlord has a heater that runs on whale-oil, that's what you use.
Two-thirds of Americans own rather than rent.
Though I expect that to be changing, perhaps by a lot.
The more cost sensitive are probably corralled in that one third who rent, so the ones most in need are, as always, the ones least capable of making changes for a variety of reasons.
Own with lots or just own? Are condominiums and owned apartments included in that?
I assume that counts condos. But most are single detached (i.e., single family houses). Some census data here.
Also found this map interesting:
http://www.danter.com/statistics/ho2005.pdf
The urban areas really pull the home ownership stats down. In the middle of the country, home ownership is 70%, even 75% or more. I would assume there aren't many condos there.
I thought the banks actually own quite a large proportion of the houses ... and that's the problem, because people can't afford the interest payments let alone the capital repayments? ... No?
Just because it is a detached single family home, does not mean there is enough yard for a heat pump, garden, etc. I was wandering through a subdivision under construction a couple of years back, which were eventually put on the market at $700,000. You could, uh, spit out your window and hit your neighbor's house. There might have been enough room to drive a car between them. Maybe.
That's true. But you could put solar panels on the roof, install insulation, insulated windows, energy-efficient appliances, etc., which apartment dwellers can't do.
Those almost new homes may need an energy retrofit with rapidly rising energy prices, I would think someday soon, utility expenses could rival the mortgage payment on poorly insulated homes, at least in winter months.
Anecdotal Evidence
(I doo so love anecdotal - often more real than graphs and charts)
Or
Conversations at the edge of a dying civilisation....
I rang my sister in law tonight while my wife was out (dont read too much into that...) I wanted her opinion of the new CGI film of Beowulf (Crap, but since we had to translate from Anglo Saxon in Eng Lit Classes we both have a dog in the fight.)
Then it went to 'life , the universe and everything' type talk.
They went to Florida for a Holiday at half term. She was excited. LOTS of big properties going cheap, cheaper than last year, and what with the cheap dollar, this was the cheapest holiday they have had for a long time. Cheaper than France, cheaper than Spain.
She said Houses were on the market cheap and the owners even threw in an SUV with the sale.
Let me repeat that:
''and the owners even threw in an SUV with the sale''.
Distress sales.
Big time.
She mentioned the water shortage.
I said dont buy into Florida. (I put her off Spain a couple of years ago).
I said imagine Florida with water rationing and electricity blackouts with no AC.
This girl is no fool. Always on the lookout for the next money maker, she and her husband are an order of magnitude wealthier than me. But she is no fool and a short conversation about Florida turned her from 'buy' to 'walk away from the mess'.
Closer to home: 'how is business?' I asked.
In the space of a two week holiday, she came back to her Northern English , rich, commuter town to find out that 5 of her friend's husbands had been canned. All were in senior positions in Accounting, Marketing and similar.
All within two weeks. All were surprised.
She works as an Estate Agents (Real Estate).
She is good.
She could sell a caveman's cave back to the caveman.
She says ''before I went (to Florida) we were moving a 100 sales a week.''.
''Last week we moved 29''.
Take your partners for the ELP Square-dance.
Hmmm ... I walk into town most days ( it saves petrol and keeps me fit!) on the way I pass loads of houses that are for sale and nothing seems to sell. Or, if it does sell 'subject to contract' it soon comes back on the market 'cos the 'chain' has broken somewhere.
Oh dear! I hope it's just the time of year and sales will pick up again in the spring!
'Best hopes' ... as Alan would say.
'Don't hold your breath' ... as I would say.