DrumBeat: January 22, 2008


A Bush visits a Saud, but much has changed

RIYADH: The Saudi monarchy once depended on the United States to protect its reign and its oil from foes like Saddam Hussein. These days, President George W. Bush needs the world's biggest exporter of crude more than it needs him.

With oil at about $90 a barrel, the U.S. economy at risk of sliding into recession and American banks trying to raise cash to ride out the subprime-mortgage crisis, Bush has become a supplicant for Saudi financial help. He also needs the kingdom to get behind his Palestinian peace push, to keep Iran at bay and to support political stability in Iraq.

Is peak oil good news or bad for hydro and seismic operators?

Senior oil executives have traditionally avoided any talk of geological constraints, but now even they admit the industry is in fundamental difficulty. A growing number believe output will never exceed 100 million barrels per day, including Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of Total, Shokri Ghanem, head of Libya’s National Oil Company, and James Mulva, boss of ConocoPhillips. Sadad al-Huseini, who until 2004 ran exploration and production for Saudi Aramco, recently claimed global oil production has already reached its ultimate plateau and that output will start to fall within 15 years.

This new openness only reflects the obvious reality; for all their power and profits, the world’s biggest oil companies are in trouble. For many, production is already falling. And most are struggling to replace the oil they do produce with fresh discoveries – although not for lack of trying. A recent study by analysts John S Herold showed that the world’s 230 biggest oil companies raised their upstream spending by 45 per cent to over $400 billion in 2006, but that oil and gas reserves inched up by just 2 per cent. The report concluded that peak oil would force oil companies to choose from four options: “try to become a dominant participant, find a niche operational talent, harvest assets, or liquidate quickly.”


Total faces 'huge cost issues' in Iranian gas project

ABU DHABI: The French oil company Total said Tuesday that it was facing budget problems on a major liquefied natural gas project in Iran and that it was reviewing plans with the Iranian government.

"We are reviewing the project with the Iranian government, and it could take some time," said Philippe Boisseau, president of gas and power at Total, said during a renewable energy conference in Abu Dhabi, adding that Total is facing "huge cost issues."


Suncor says fixing odor problem at oil sands

CALGARY, Alberta, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Suncor Energy Inc said on Tuesday that clearing up odor problems at its Firebag thermal oil sands operations in northern Alberta will cost about C$200 million, but it hopes to complete the work later this year, allowing it to boost output at the site.


Ecuador: Gov To Invest $2.39 Billion In Hydroelectric Projects

QUITO -(Dow Jones)- The Ecuadorean government will invest $2.39 billion through 2011 to develop four hydroelectric projects using revenue from the Feiseh oil fund, Electricity and Renewable Energies Minister Alecksey Mosquera said Tuesday.


Whole Foods sacks plastic bags

There's a familiar question that Whole Foods will stop asking shoppers: Paper or plastic?

Tuesday, Whole Foods will announce plans to stop offering disposable, plastic grocery bags in all 270 stores in the USA, Canada and United Kingdom by Earth Day — April 22. That means roughly 100 million plastic bags will be kept out of the environment between that date and the end of 2008, the company says.


High gas prices: Recession-proof

Contrary to popular belief, Americans facing a looming recession should expect little relief in the form of lower gas prices, experts say.

Despite recently falling oil and gasoline prices, strong worldwide demand, refinery shortages, and OPEC production cuts should keep gasoline well above $2 a gallon in 2008.

Slower consumer spending and rising unemployment - traditional harbingers of an economic downturn - are unlikely to drastically reduce energy prices. Oil isn't expected to fall below $60 a barrel from its current level of $90 and gasoline should bottom out around $2.30-2.50 a gallon from around $3 currently, experts say.


Halliburton Wins $683 Million Pemex Drilling Contract

(Bloomberg) -- Halliburton Co. won a $683 million, three-year contract from Petroleos Mexicanos to manage drilling and completion of 58 wells in southern Mexico.

The land wells range in depth from 3,500 meters to 6,500 meters (11,500 feet to 21,300 feet) in depth, Halliburton said today in a statement on its Web site.


Truckloads of gas en route to Inuvik

Fuel trucks are on their way to Inuvik, N.W.T., to ease a fuel shortage in the Arctic town, Mayor Derek Lindsay said.

Petroleum supplier Imperial Oil has contracted five trucks to drive from Alberta to Inuvik to deliver fuel.

Lindsay said it has been difficult to find enough trucks for the job, as most vehicles have been tied up with work in Alberta's oilpatch.


Fuel shortage forces hard choices

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip — Doctors at Shifa Hospital, the primary health care center in Gaza, say they will soon be forced to make hard choices as to which life-saving equipment — incubators or dialysis machines — must be shut down as the hospital's generators run out of fuel.


Israel Allows Some Supplies Into Gaza

The Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, announced Monday night that he was lifting some of the restrictions imposed on Gaza and that on Tuesday morning he would allow delivery of a week’s supply of industrial diesel fuel for the local power station, as well as 50 trucks of food and medical supplies.


Iraq makes good on Kurd oil blacklist

Iraq's Oil Ministry has reportedly cut current and will block future deals as part of a blacklist of firms that have signed oil contracts with the Kurd region.

Companies will not be able to purchase Iraqi oil or bid on upcoming projects in Iraq's oil and gas sector if they have signed any deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government since February 2007. That's when a deal was reached -- and a few months later rejected -- by the KRG and Baghdad on the oil law.


News blackout for giant new Nigerian oil ship

A giant new oil production vessel has arrived at the Agbami field off the coast of Nigeria, but U.S. company Chevron has imposed a news blackout due to security fears, industry sources said on Tuesday.

The California-based company is afraid that armed groups in the Niger Delta might try to attack the billion dollar ship as it is being hooked up to oilwells on the seabed, causing delays to its mid-year startup.


Pemex 2007 Oil Output Falls 5.3% on Storms, Cantarell

Petroleos Mexicanos, the state- owned oil monopoly that accounts for 40 percent of the government's budget, said daily crude oil production fell 5.3 percent in 2007 and fell short of the company's goal.

Output fell to an average 3.08 million barrels a day because of storms and a decline at the company's biggest field, Mexico City-based Pemex said today in an e-mailed statement. Hurricane Dean in August and high winds in October shut down production in the Gulf of Mexico.


Nepal: Massive hike in prices of diesel, kerosene, LPG

KATHMANDU - The government Monday considerably hiked the prices of diesel, kerosene and the cooking gas as part of its ongoing efforts to aid repayment of dues to the Indian oil supplier in order to end the festering fuel shortage in the country.


Nepal students burn tyres to protest fuel hike

KATHMANDU (Reuters) - Hundreds of students burned tyres and brought traffic to a halt on the roads of Nepal's capital on Tuesday in protest against a steep hike in the price of cooking gas and diesel.

The Nepal Oil Corporation, the state-owned monopoly, raised prices of diesel, kerosene and cooking gas on Monday by up to 20 percent to cut losses. It was the second rise in three months.


Any color...as long as it's pink

Saudi Arabia may be about to allow women to drive. The car industry gets ready for a windfall.


Do we know what we're doing?

Take for example, the proposed Department of Energy salt dome project near Richton slated for storing 160 million barrels of oil. Sounds simple doesn't it? Just dig a hole in the ground, create jobs, and bring money into the state. No big deal, right?

The DOE plans to place roughly 250 miles of pipe lines, which will be used to pump fresh water from the Pascagoula River to Richton for solution mining, and then pump the resulting salt slurry south to the Gulf of Mexico near Pascagoula.

...Solution mining involves injecting water into the salt dome, dissolving the salt into a slurry brine and piping the waste to the Gulf. This particular project will require 50 million gallons of fresh water every day, for five years.


Albania to Build Major Wind Farm

Albania is to host what is expected to become Europe's biggest onshore wind farm when it is completed, according to plans announced by the Italian Moncada construction company.

The project, which has already been approved by the Albanian government, will have a total generating capacity of 500 megawatts, Moncada said on Monday.


More cities get on board with hybrid buses

Mass-transit systems across the USA are accelerating orders for diesel-electric hybrid buses, despite an extra cost of more than $100,000 per bus.

Four U.S. cities recently ordered more than 1,700 hybrid buses, General Motors, one of two major manufacturers of hybrid bus systems, plans to announce today. The orders include 950 for Washington, D.C., 480 for Philadelphia and 300 for Minneapolis and St. Paul.

Last month, New York City's Metropolitan Transportation Authority — which began experimenting with the buses in 1998 — ordered 850 with systems from GM competitor BAE Systems, MTA spokesman Charles Seaton said.


Florida’s growth machine runs out of gas in suburbia

Can it be mere coincidence that Florida’s housing depression coincides with spiking oil prices?

When you think “subprime,” think “suburbia” — as in miles of streets and stucco boxes where there is no “there” there. Fueled by easy credit and once-low gasoline prices, Florida’s housing boom has gone bust. Nowhere is that more evident than in this state’s suburbs.


Europe, Cutting Biofuel Subsidies, Redirects Aid to Stress Greenest Options

Governments in Europe and elsewhere have begun rolling back generous, across-the-board subsidies for biofuels, acknowledging that the environmental benefits of these fuels have often been overstated.

But as they aim to be more selective, these governments are discovering how difficult it can be to figure out whether a particular fuel — much less a particular batch of corn ethanol or rapeseed biodiesel — has been produced in an environmentally friendly manner. Biofuels vary greatly in their environmental impact.


Why is the Fed so worried about inflation? Also: How come profits for oil refiners are falling?

Why is the Fed worried about inflation when typically it is caused by too few goods being chased by too many dollars. Isn't the problem now is that inflation is tied to the rise in energy costs — something over which we have little control?


Prince saves his energy in dramatic appearance at climate conference

In the many years in which the Prince of Wales has attended official functions he has never appeared quite like this. At the alternative energy conference in Abu Dhabi he was not exactly there in the flesh. There was no video link either.

Instead, delegates were treated to a full-size, walking, talking, fiddling hologram of his royal highness, who made a brief speech then vanished back into thin air.


Environment damage of rich countries on poor

A study has revealed the extent to which poorer countries are trampled by the huge environmental footprints of the rich.

The environmental damage caused by rich nations disproportionately impacts poor nations and costs them almost £920 billion, on par with or exceeding their combined foreign debt, according to a first-ever global accounting of the dollar costs of countries' ecological footprints.


Israel: Eilot Region pins energy hopes on solar collectors

The Eilot region, at the southeastern edge of Israel, is likely to become the first part of the country, along with the city of Eilat, that is not dependent on polluting energy resources. Instead of oil- or coal-fired power plants, the region's electricity will be produced from clean, renewable sources - first and foremost, the sun.


An Oil Giant's Green Dream

If the idea of an Arab oil power like Abu Dhabi supporting fossil fuel alternatives sounds a bit like a heroin dealer trying to sell methadone, think again. Virtually alone among its Persian Gulf neighbors, Abu Dhabi has embarked on a serious program in alternative energy research, backed with oil money. In 2006 it launched the Masdar Initiative (the name means "source" in Arabic), a multi-pronged scheme that includes a collaborative research institute with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, support for solar and other kinds of green power within the city itself and a clean energy investment fund worth $250 million. The idea behind Masdar — which organized the Future Energy Summit — is a radical one: prepare Abu Dhabi and the UAE to move beyond fossil fuels. "The UAE wants to be more than just an oil-producing country," says Marc Stuart, the co-founder of the carbon-trading firm EcoSecurities.


Eco-risks loom as arctic oil activity grows

OSLO (Reuters) - Exploitation of the Arctic's huge oil and gas wealth poses a growing danger to an icy wilderness that can recover only slowly from heavy oil spills, a report by the eight-nation Arctic Council said on Monday.


Nigerians demand taxes at gunpoint

LAGOS, Nigeria, Jan. 21 (UPI) -- Norway's largest oil company paid its Nigerian tax bill at gunpoint, a company spokesman said on Monday.

StatoilHydro's Nigerian taxes had been in dispute over real estate estimates and payroll concerns in Lagos, where the company's Nigerian headquarters are located. Armed police and tax officials, however, appeared at the office in force last week and StatoilHydro personnel responded by writing $800,000 worth of checks.


Brazil's state oil company announces discovery of giant gas reserve

SAO PAULO, Brazil: Brazil's state oil company said Monday it has discovered a huge natural gas reserve off the coast of Rio de Janeiro that could be as big as the recently discovered Tupi oil field.


Venezuela boosts oil investment

State oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA will spend $15.6 billion on oil-related investments this year, a 56 percent increase over last year, the country's oil minister said Monday.

Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said the higher investment is aimed at helping PDVSA meet its goal of increasing crude output to 5.8 million barrels a day by 2012.


CERA’s depletion study: the “good news” about running up the down escalator

Depletion never sleeps. Consider the enormous implications of a 4.5% decline rate. If you start with 85 million barrels a day in 2007, but lose 4.5% each year, by 2017 you’ve lost 31 mbd. That’s the equivalent of losing the world’s four largest oil producers: Saudi Arabia, Russia, the USA and Iran. By 2030, you’ve lost 55 mbd, or as much as all the non-Opec nations now provide. Remarkably, CERA finds this to be “good news.”


Saudi Arabia remains China's top crude supplier

BEIJING (MarketWatch) -- Saudi Arabia consolidated its place as China's top crude oil supplier in 2007 after its exports growth outpaced that of nearest rival Angola, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Tuesday.

The Middle Eastern kingdom is now likely to pull further ahead, as it chases a target of exporting 1 million barrels of crude a day to China by the end of the decade. That would equal more than half of Angola's current total exports to international customers.


ConocoPhillips buying 50% interest in Canada pipeline

ConocoPhillips said Tuesday said it would pay an undislosed sum to TransCanada Corp. to exercise an option to buy a 50% interest in the Keystone Oil Pipeline.


Gas rig workers ripped off: union

SKILLED Filipino workers on a $1.6 billion gas project on the North-West Shelf are being paid less than $8 an hour, undercutting both local wage rates and the amounts promised in their contracts, the Australian Workers Union says.


Chevron Refinery's Flares Still Polluting, Report Says

Chevron's Richmond refinery has increased its flaring by 80 percent since 2005 when the Bay Area Air Quality Management District passed a new rule limiting harmful refinery flaring to emergencies, according to a report released Monday by an environmental justice organization.

The organization, Communities for a Better Environment, studied data from the five Bay Area refineries and found that Chevron's Richmond refinery and the ConocoPhillips refinery in Rodeo were each emitting 30 to 50 times more pollution than the Shell Refinery in Martinez, according to CBE Senior Scientist Greg Karras.


China, Japan and World Food Insecurity

Resource-poor Japan - and much of the rest of the world - may be at a crossroads before too long. Much depends on whether China can keep its ever-surging demand for grain in check.


MPs' warning on biofuels angers Brussels

The EU yesterday denounced a House of Commons report calling for a moratorium on the increased use of biofuels and made plain it would stick to mandatory targets for the use of biofuels in transport when it unveils a climate change package today.


Oil sinks to 6-week low on U.S. recession fears

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell to a six-week low on Tuesday, dragged lower by a stock market plunge and fears a slowdown in the United States could have a much wider impact than previously thought.

Speculative funds have begun to sell positions in oil markets and other commodities as they readjust portfolios, analysts said.

U.S. crude fell to a low of $86.11 a barrel, its weakest since December 6 and by 7:43 a.m. EST was trading at $87.40.


OPEC could reduce production to preserve revenues - CGES

While US President George W Bush and other leaders of oil-consuming countries are asking OPEC oil ministers to produce more, there is a danger they might turn in the opposite direction and reduce production, the CGES said.

OPEC members have become dependent on the higher oil revenues of recent years and may attempt to keep them at the current level by reducing production to keep prices high, it added.


OPEC: U.S. recession fears cloud oil demand outlook

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Mounting concerns over a U.S. recession have obscured the demand outlook for OPEC's oil this year, the producer group said on Tuesday, adding that high prices could inflict further pain on consumers.


World Oil Demand to Reach 118 Mmbpd by 2030: UAE Minister

A senior energy official of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said on Monday that the world's oil demand will reach 118 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, the official Emirates News Agency reported.

The forecast was made by the UAE Energy Minister Mohammed bin Dhaen Al Hamli in his keynote speech at the World Future Energy Summit 2008, which was held from Monday to Wednesday.

Hamli assured the audience that the world's oil resources are sufficient to meet the heavy forecast increases in demand for decades to come.


Serbia agrees to Russian pipeline deal

BELGRADE, Serbia - Serbia said Tuesday it had agreed to a multibillion dollar gas pipeline project as part of an energy deal with Russia that would boost Moscow's control over supplies to Europe.

A majority stake of the Serbian oil monopoly NIS will be sold to Russian energy company Gazprom. Russia would route part of the gas pipeline through Serbia, as part of the deal announced in a short statement by the Serbian government. Financial terms were not revealed.


Nigeria warns on oil contracts

Nigeria has warned energy companies it wants to complete its planned renegotiation of contracts covering offshore oilfields in the next three months, saying record prices mean western groups are having "a ball".

It is the first time Nigeria has come up with a timeframe for renegotiating the complex agreements, which the government signalled it would review late last year in an effort to secure a greater share of profits from offshore production. The urgency will put the oil majors under greater pressure.


FAO sees record world food prices staying

ROME, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Record food prices are unlikely to ease in the foreseeable future, as high grain demand and low stocks mean the world remains vulnerable to possible food shocks, a United Nations expert said on Monday.


Transition - another buzzword or real change for Cornwall?

Don’t be put off by terms like peak oil, powerdown or energy descent. You don’t have to be an environmental expert, but you do need to be interested in helping to make your local community more sustainable. Other transition groups in Cornwall have been encouraging local foods and allotments, or encouraging their town to abandon the use of plastic carrier bags, so everyone can contribute something to the success of a local Transition group. It only takes a handful of people to get things going. The key thing is that your group shares concerns about our seemingly hopeless and unsustainable dependence on fossil fuels, and when put together with the impact and risks associated with climate change, there is a collective desire to find local community solutions.


EU climate change plans to cost 60 billion euros: Barroso

BRUSSELS (AFP) - European Union plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions could cost at least 60 billion euros (86.6 billion dollars) a year, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Monday.

"Taking action is not cost free, although we think we can limit the cost of our proposals to around 0.5 percent of gross domestic product," he said, according to remarks prepared for delivery in London.


Climate change threatens N. Ireland's Giant's Causeway

BELFAST (AFP) - The Giant's Causeway, the spectacular rock formation on the Northern Irish coast, could soon become difficult to access due to climate change, a report warned Tuesday.

The iconic world heritage site, one of the province's biggest tourist attractions, will be under threat if sea levels rise and storms worsen, said the National Trust conservation organisation, which owns and manages the site.


Red Cross refocuses aid budget on threat of climate change

"For many people, climate change tends to be seen as more of an environmental, scientific or political issue," IFRC policy and communications head Encho Gospodinov told journalists.

"We believe it must also be seen as a humanitarian issue, first and foremost, an issue that is already impacting on the lives of millions of vulnerable people around the world," he added.

The Financial Markets Roller Coaster Ride Thread

NIKKEI down 5.65%
Hang Sing down 8.65%
CAC 40 DowN 0.84%
DAX Down 2.2%
FTSE Down 0.34%

Fed Cuts Rates By 3/4%

"May you live in interesting times!"

"May you live in interesting times!"

...and attract the interest of important people

hi Alan, thanks for the 'heads up', I never knew about the last half of that curse, but sounds right on ... these are times again to keep ones head down. (but maybe with just the occasional pot shot over the parapet:)

"We must feel the mercy of the angels in all this, not fret about the magic money.

The history of bubbles is long and well-known for hundreds of years yet the very sophisticated and powerful people at the top of global society have decided yet again. to create bubbles and blow them up as much as possible. To(day) will bring ruin to many here in America. They will run to the rulers and hold out their hands and beg to be saved from the follies of the rulers. The rulers will go to Death and demand more gold, more power and more land. 'Make us gods!' they will order, sternly. And Death will flick a finger and more wealth will vanish. Poof."

http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/

The Slide into the Gorge gets steeper.

Nice to see someone in good mood this morning:)

8D

Erin go Brea. May the Luck of the Irish be with us all.

How's that.

Thanks McG.

Another excellent source of info is the video "The Money Masters." It will be the education you never got in school. Warning, it is a long documentary at 3.5 hours. But those will be the most important 3.5 hours you ever spend in your adult life.

It isn't in the public domain, but can often be found on google. Sometimes you can find parts of it elsewhere. The last time I looked, the whole video was at: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936&q=money+mast...

cheryl

Thanks

Public borrowing smashes forecasts to hit record high

Britain's public finances worsened yesterday as record borrowing figures cast doubt on the Government's ability to counter any fall-off in economic activity.

There also are things moving in the background. BofA and Chase just raised the rates to 25% and 21% even for prime people with the highest credit scores. Clear intent of taking away remaining lines of credit or get a major premium.

The result of these attempted bailouts is going to be stratospheric real interest rates and will transition the economy from a stall into a flat spin.

Read column2, the banks are bankrupt, all their reserves are in BORROWED money.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

Why aren't people more alarmed than they are? Is there any way this ends well?

They don't know how to be alarmed.
For a generation the way to get along has been to smile and be empty-headed.
News is a term that no longer has meaning.
The type who hangs here has sounded the alarm too many times and we are, in terms of the normal world, nuts.

One way or another the system has to reset. I do not feel like I can predict how it will reset, we all have a opinion on how we would like it to reset but it's anyones guess how the cookie will crumble.

All one can do is to try and place odds on the various likely scenarios and allocate resources and time accordingly.

It isn't so easy to fight on your feet when surrounded by hordes of people that rather live on their knees = hard to soar like an eagle when surrounded by turkeys.

Let's see. They did bupkis in school and slid through on automatic A's and games where no score was kept. All ended well. Then they took jobs paying huge wages for zero skill and little effort (though that gravy train has diminished.) All ended well. Meanwhile, they watched tens of thousands of hours of TV where the good guys virtually always won. All ended well. They even persuaded themselves that they would live forever ("toxins" aside.) All ended well (the ones no longer here have no say in this.) And all the while, they steadily became more prosperous - indeed, many who brought nothing of value to the party nonetheless conjured up palatial houses and shiny cars out of thin air. All ended well. And now the Fed will keep the party going with a giant bailout. All...

Gee, is it even conceivable that anything whatsoever might not end well?

BAC up $1.45, JP Morgan Chase up $1.29, Bear Stearns up $5.45. What Me Worry?

In aggregate, reserves are on borrowed money, but individually they are not from what I read there. It would be nice to see which individual banks are in trouble - too bad they don't publish that (except for quarterly earnings).

chase offered me a rate of 3.99%* until the balance is paid. i have been paying their account down asap, that apparently made them nervous .

* with a $200 max fee

musashi, I must be stupid, because to me the spreadsheet showed that the banks are almost fully covered by NON-borrosed funds [ie., column 2].

You needed to go all the way to the bottom of the second chart. The last two enteries demonstrate that things went very wrong in January [the last two lines on the chart] with negative nonborrowed reserves in the last line.

Also note the large "term credit auction" numbers. My understanding is that this is a new inovation designed to limit the stigma of financial institutions borrowing directly from the Fed.

BBC News Business: (Robert) Preston's Picks, FED ALERT IS RED ALERT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

If it looks like panic at the Fed, smells like panic at the Fed, and quacks like panic at the Fed, well many will say it is panic at the Fed.

And what if the evasive action doesn’t work?

What if, after the Bernanke bounce, stock markets continue to fall, financial markets remain relatively illiquid, banks remain reluctant to lend and the US economy continues careering towards recession?

Then the players in the global financial souk will begin to fear that the US authorities “hav’nae got the power”, to quote Scotty.

Which, in the battle between the doom-mongers and the optimists over prospects for the global economy, would represent a disturbing victory for the forces of darkness.

When the BBC begins to use the word "panic" it looks as though people, even journalists, are starting to pay close attention.

The ruse is up. The coyotes are howling in the winderness.

"The ruse is up. The coyotes are howling in the winderness."

Surely they will figure out a way to blame the coyotes...

Federal Reserve makes emergency rate cut
Three-quarters of a percentage point cut biggest in recent memory

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22780489/?GT1=10755

Yup...but doesn't look like it is going to help much.

Ya think they may have to cut another 50 bp in less than a week...nah, er, maybe!

These markets don't need STIMULUS...they need RESUSCITATION!

Although the thought occurs: We've all been saying that infinite economic growth on a finite resource base is impossible. Sooner or later there must be a transition from a growth economy to a steady-state economy (and probably with a pretty steep decline during the transition). At some point, starting very soon, the financial markets are going to have to start adjusting to this reality. Artificial tricks to continue to prop them up only delays the inevitable, and assures that the crash will be even more catastrophic when it does occur.

Meanwhile, has anyone noticed that lower interest rates with higher inflation (whether acknowledged in official statistics or not) is hardly the formula to encourage the increased savings required to provide the increased capital required for the massive investments in FF E&P, more nuclear power plants, renewables of all types, and energy efficiency including Alan's EOT?

Agree, with converging crisis...we may be witnessing a HISTORIC event...

The END of GROWTH! in 2008.

"Auld Lang Syne"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auld_Lang_Syne

"Raise a glass!"

How about the third option - EMBALMING the bits that are making such a stink?

Rate cut will keep the Dow propped up, but it will have the effect of devaluing the dollar some more.

In fact that has been the pattern. The Dow, when measured by the Euro, has been down the last 7 years. I like to point this out when people say "Well at least the stock market is doing OK"

Interest rate can only be lowered so far before it has no effect anymore. Then what will the Fed do then?

The rate is now %3.5 with another %.5 on the way. At some point they could be down to %0 at that point the Fed OMC will be unable to add to liquidity, then they would lose the tool of lowering rates to prop up equities.

with inflation at 4.5% or more, this is negative interest (for those who can get the 3.5% rate.)

Are we going to see a "dollar carry trade"? Is USA going the way of Japan?

Sure...maybe...but then what happens to Japan?

Doh!

Yes and as of right now the US markets seem to be responding to the 'good' news by only being off slightly whilst the rest of the world just took a big fleecing. India/China take a 12% hit. I'm wondering a bit if the US markets didn't benefit slightly from being closed for those two sessions. (3/4% emergency rate cut probably didn't hurt)
As in perhaps some money rotated in to buy depressed US stocks this morning.
As you say the dollar has to be hating this and gold will eventually gain after people quit taking their profits out to balance the stock losses.
Still it seems inequitable that the stocks 'here' wont take the same beating since it's really the consumer/subprime debacle (largely here) which is the engine sucking fumes behind it all.
And of course behind that is the ff and commodities demand/supply crunch that is starving that engine. I'd bet that those buying in to US stocks right now are short covering or are going to be sorry in a week or two if not later today.

I gotta admit I was wrong. I was counting on Bernake and the FED to be "on holiday" and not even much know about this issue until today.

I was thinking it would be a couple of weeks before they would counter. I figured calling the FED in on this would be kinda like calling the police to take a report - its not like I figured they would come post haste sirens blaring.

I am impressed that our government did see this and nipped it before the whole system came down.

I thought I was gonna make a real killing today. Shorting stocks.

Didn't do near as well as I thought. I barely covered my trading losses. I was preparing for the doomsday that didn't happen. I still think it likely would have melted down had the FED and our President not shown action.

With so many of my neighbors in debt up to the yinyang, this is NOT a good time to pull the plug on them. I like them and I really did not take any delight in having new neighbors.

I didn't make any money, but I am extremely happy to miss the meltdown.

>I was thinking it would be a couple of weeks before they would counter.

You do realize that the Fed meets next week? The Street expects the Fed to make another 50 bps cut next week when they meet.

There is a good chance that they will remain agressive cutting rates until they get down to 1%. How fast, depends on how many more sell offs occur in th near future.

Hardhat, time will tell whether it might have been better if Bernanke and the Fed Reserve were on holidays. They are taking a sizeable risk here and if this doesn't work, then the crisis, I'm afraid, will quickly cascade into an avalanche.

I, like you, don't relish seeing others in misery. Moreover, although I live outside the U.S. and have a reasonably stable job (as much as clergy ever do), yet I suspect this will effect everybody in some way and not nicely. And I am first to say catastrophe is something always to be avoided not embraced.

Yet one of the beauties of this blog is that often uncomfortable realities are at least discussed here. Most people are too busy with their daily lives to pay much attention to what happens outside their cloistered world. When they do relax, they seek to escape reality. The MSM is infotainment & likewise is in the business of pandering to the latest cause de céléb, or celebrity, or scandal, or prattle from the nearest talking head.

The next couple of days may tell us more. The meltdown may have been momentarily postponed not cancelled. My advice, keep investing in a way that may benefit you in the long run.

The powers-that-be are playing with fire and a lot is at stake here. Murphy's Law tends to kick in at the optimal of conditions. And Old Man Murphy tends to be downright frenetic when conditions are less favourable.

My wife calls me pollyanna b/c I tend to default into optimism. Lately, my gut and head tell me to be on the lookout. Hope for the best and