DrumBeat: February 2, 2008
Posted by Leanan on February 2, 2008 - 10:18am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Vietnam vet and FedEx founder Frederick Smith wants to craft an energy policy for America....It shouldn't be forgotten that the proximate cause of World War II was the U.S. oil embargo against Japan, when we were an oil-exporting nation. And World War II was largely won in Europe by the United States' attack on the fuel supplies of Germany. In fact, they were making more Messerschmitt fighter planes in late 1944 and early 1945 than anywhere else in the world—they simply didn't have the fuel to train the pilots to fly them. The first gulf war was caused totally by oil—it was Saddam Hussein's insistence that he own certain oilfields that led to his invasion of Kuwait and our ouster of his forces there. The subsequent presence of the United States in the Middle East was in large measure driven by the protection of the oil trade. And a lot of analysts think that as much as 40 percent of the entire U.S. military budget can be attributed to protecting the oil trade.
What if you held a conference, and no (real) scientists came?
Over the past days, many of us have received invitations to a conference called "The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change" in New York. At first sight this may look like a scientific conference - especially to those who are not familiar with the activities of the Heartland Institute, a front group for the fossil fuel industry that is sponsoring the conference. You may remember them. They were the promoters of the Avery and Singer "Unstoppable" tour and purveyors of disinformation about numerous topics such as the demise of Kilimanjaro's ice cap.
Living Or Dying On Planet Earth!
The only real issue is that humankind can only exist on this planet in a very narrow range of conditions, and the planet is quite capable of altering those conditions in a relatively short time when stressed!
Oil Exploration In Arctic Highly Risky: 'Response Gap' In Case Of Oil Spill, According To New Report
Arctic marine conditions contribute to an oil spill “response gap” that effectively limits the ability to clean up after an oil spill.
Venezuela seeks up-front cash for $1 bln fuel oil
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA is seeking a $1 billion up-front payment for several large shipments of fuel oil, El Universal newspaper reported on Saturday, in what may be a new sign of cash flow problems.Under the deal, Venezuela is selling the fuel relatively cheaply but wants payment next week, the newspaper said.
Profits suffer at BP as high taxes hit home
BP boss Tony Hayward will dismiss claims that the UK's biggest company is profiteering from high oil prices on Tuesday when he is due to present annual figures which will be scarred by the effects of higher taxes and increased depreciation charges.
Venezuela to open bid for Orinoco oil block
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela will open a bid round for private companies to develop the Carabobo I block of the OPEC nation's Orinoco heavy crude belt, state oil company PDVSA said on Saturday.
Iran wants OPEC to discuss output cut in March
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran wants OPEC to discuss cutting crude oil output at the cartel's next meeting in March as stocks are expected to increase, Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said on Saturday.Nozari was speaking a day after OPEC, meeting in Vienna, kept oil supplies unchanged, and Iran and Venezuela said it may need to curb output in March to defend prices against a drop in demand, should the United States slip into recession.
"Our proposal ... for the upcoming meeting is that OPEC ... cuts its output capacity," Nozari told a news conference in Tehran. "Iran and Venezuela brought up this issue so that it would be discussed at OPEC's next meeting."
The San Francisco Peak Oil Preparedness Task Force explores life after fossil fuels — an era that may be coming sooner than most people think.
Developers hit by material price hikes
The rising cost of building materials could send Middle East property prices soaring, according to Saudi Arabia based property developer Rakaa.A series of steep hikes in the cost of core building materials such as steel and cement, along with skyrocketing oil prices could have "huge financial implications" in the coming months, according to Rakaa Property CEO Dr Abdulrahman Al Tassan.
Pakistan: Measures to cut energy consumption by 30%
ISLAMABAD, Feb 1: In an effort to tide over the country’s worst ever energy shortage, the federal government has asked the provinces and trade and industrial bodies to strictly observe a set of energy conservation measures to reduce consumption by about 30 per cent with immediate effect.
Ugandan economy hit by Kenyan violence with attacks on trucks causing shortages, price hikes
KAMPALA, Uganda: Attacks by armed Kenyan mobs on truck convoys plying vital trade routes through the country is costing its neighbor Uganda more than US$500,000 (€330,000) daily in lost revenues, officials said Friday.Gas prices have surged with shortages reported in many parts of the country, and a scarcity of raw materials, blamed on Kenya's postelection violence, has shut factories and caused layoffs over the border, officials said.
Iran announces new gas field in Gulf
A gas field with an estimated 11 trillion cubic feet in reserves has been discovered in the Gulf off the coast of Iran, Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said Saturday.
What's so funny about a hybrid howitzer?
A rmy green is more than a uniform color scheme -- it's the future of military vehicle technology. The Army is preparing to roll out the first of its next-generation hybrid vehicles, which will be a 155 mm, self-propelled howitzer, or short-barreled cannon.Nobody will confuse it with a Prius.
But like a Prius, the howitzer will be powered by a fuel-electric drive train that switches back and forth between battery and liquid fuel, depending on the need of the moment. The military hybrid is a diesel-electric version.
Cleveland Rolls Out Barrels Against Big Oil
A crowd of commuters gathered on Public Square in downtown Cleveland armed with picket signs, auto parts, and a message -- it's time to Join The Ride by taking public transportation. High gas prices have put a drag on the economy, and according to the group, the best stimulus plan for the country is for Americans to incorporate a bus or train into their commutes. The demonstrators, angered by news of record profits from Exxon and Shell, caught the attention of downtown office workers. So did the oil barrels blocking off the streets and the 45-foot long buses parked in the city's busiest intersection.
A Green Energy Industry Takes Root in California
While interest in alternative energy is climbing across the United States, solar power especially is rising in California, the product of billions of dollars in investment and mountains of enthusiasm.In recent months, the industry has added several thousand jobs in the production of solar energy cells and installation of solar panels on roofs. A spate of investment has also aimed at making solar power more efficient and less costly than natural gas and coal.
Wind power meets resistance in Maryland
McHENRY — Residents of Western Maryland's Garrett County pride themselves on their scenic byways and fall foliage, the whitewater rafting and skiing. Like others in the state and around the country, they are concerned about the environment and understand the need for renewable energy sources.But a proposal to erect 400-foot tall wind turbines to generate clean electricity drew almost unanimous opposition at hearings this week from residents who, while supportive of alternative energy, would prefer not to spoil the scenic views of their state land.
I suspect that Exxon Mobil will have first rate profits because gas prices have been high. They could be hurt somewhat by the refining margins, but an oil company can’t help but make money right now, replies Simmons.However, it’s worth noting that the amount of growth the top 5 oil companies have been able to generate has been almost negative while their spending has been higher than it’s ever been. I think the trend will accelerate.
Surviving the end of the oil age
The global energy predicament Kunstler referred to is not about when the world runs out of oil. Rather, it is about when the world reaches its maximum petroleum production rate, and enters a state of permanent decline. If consumer demand continues to rapidly grow as oil supplies dwindle, the result will be unaffordable energy prices that will force countries such as Canada and the U.S. to surrender the suburban way of life.
The nation's manufacturing sector has been hit by a double whammy: Oil wealth has ignited the loonie, hurting exports, and the higher energy prices are squeezing profits. Now the factory-dependent provinces are looking greedily at Alberta.
Pakistan - Industry be preferred to households: experts
LAHORE: Economic experts have stressed the government to take some politically tough decisions in the energy sector in an effort to sustain growth by giving preference to the industry over domestic and commercial consumers.They argue that stoppage of energy supply to the industry would ultimately force them to close their businesses, leading to unemployment on a mass scale. As a result, majority of the domestic consumers would be left with no money even to feed themselves.
Help for desperate refugees in Tajik winter
The unusually harsh winter in Tajikistan has frozen rivers, affected the production of hydropower and exacerbated an existing energy crisis throughout the country. Electricity is limited to one or two hours per day in the capital, Dushanbe, with further power cuts expected. Millions of Tajiks are reported to be suffering from the cold.Among those affected are 1,088 refugees, mostly from Afghanistan. Many of them do not have enough resources to heat their homes, prepare food, buy warm clothes and access medical care. Their most urgent needs are medicines, warm clothes for children and an increase in their monthly cash assistance as prices have risen dramatically.
Nepal: Transporters call off strike as govt agrees to normalise fuel supply
The transporters called off their strike Saturday evening after the government agreed to normalise the supply of petroleum products.The Federation of Transport Entrepreneurs of Nepal and the government reached an agreement, according to which the government will normalise the fuel supply by February 6 and the transporters will halt their strike until then.
Nepal: Power cuts, diesel crunch clobber economy
KATHMANDU, Feb 2 - Extended hours of power cut and an unprecedented shortage of diesel - the major industrial fuel - have threatened almost all vital sectors of the economy.Energy crisis has forced some transport, manufacturing and service units to close down and compelled many others to operate below capacity. Hoteliers complained that they are finding it tough to keep the guests warm and in illuminated surroundings.
South Africa's mines battle on new low-electricity diet
Johannesburg - A week after they ground to a halt for lack of electricity at an estimated cost of nearly 200 million rand (27 million dollars) a day, South Africa's mines were struggling on a new, cut-power regimen and warning of job losses. On January 25, production at the country's biggest gold, diamond and platinum mines screeched to a halt after beleaguered state electricity supplier Eskom warned it could not guarantee their power supply.
South Africa urged to use uranium more, instead of coal
French nuclear giant Areva says South Africa should use its rich uranium resources to address its energy crisis.As the fifth largest producer of uranium, South Africa should not see coal as the solution.
Saudi Aramco to boost capacity at offshore Karan gas field
Saudi Aramco is to increase capacity at its Karan gas field development by 50 per cent as it looks to keep pace with soaring domestic demand.The offshore field, which is thought to contain more than 9 trillion cubic feet of gas, was originally slated to produce 1 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas, but this has now been raised to 1.5 billion cf/d.
Mexico's Pemex Signs Cooperation Agreements With Exxon Mobil
MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said Friday it signed two cooperation agreements with U.S. major Exxon Mobil Corp.Pemex said in a press release that one is an extension of a 2002 agreement for scientific and technological research and development and that the other is to share experiences in electromagnetic soundings to reduce exploratory risk in deep water.
Pemex said the accords are "non-commercial."
When Putin and other Russian officials refer to Russia as an energy superpower, they seem to mean a country that possesses a bounty of energy and will use its resources to ensure Moscow's influence on the world's stage. In contrast, the true picture of Russia's energy resources and the attempted politicization of their uses is far more nuanced and complex. Russia's energy policies -- resource and infrastructure development and its use of the energy weapon thus far -- raise major questions about Russia's energy superpower status.
Mexico's Oil Output Has Peaked, Under Current Limitations
Peak oil production occurred in Mexico in 2004-that is, under the limitations of current regulations-says George Baker, publisher of Mexico Energy Intelligence in Houston. Mexico's most important field, Cantarell, is in serious decline, and the recently announced KMZ and Chicontepec prospects are "suspect" as well, he says. A Pemex business-as-usual scenario is unlikely.Despite a debottlenecking project in 1989 and nitrogen injection in 2000, Cantarell production peaked at slightly more than 2 million barrels per day. Consequently, Mexico's exports peaked at the same time, near some 1.88 million barrels per day. and have since fallen to just over 1.7 million barrels per day, according to Baker.
Countrywide and Chase Shut Off The Cash Spigot
It does not happen often and when it does it is usually striking: On occasion, Greenspan actually says something that makes sense. The China Post is reporting Former Chair Greenspan doubts 'major' Fed role as risk reprices:
"Global forces can now override most anything that monetary and fiscal policy can do," he said in the interview, adding it was "absolutely" more difficult for the Fed to react to financial-market turmoil than was the case 20 years ago. "The resources of central banks relative to the size of global forces have markedly diminished."I concur with the above on account of global wage arbitrage, the ease of moving operations to another country then out again (see Dell Walks Away), and also because of peak oil and emerging market demand for global resources.
However, this is the primary reason the Fed will fail is changing social attitudes towards debt. More evidence of changing attitudes can be found in the The Business of Walking Away.
County panel pushes solar energy
An innovative program that could make homes across Alachua County more energy- efficient through the use of methods from low-tech weather stripping to cutting-edge solar cells will be a key recommendation of a committee studying ways to cut waste and greenhouse gases. Continue to 2nd paragraphWith the measures, committee members say, the county will be able to produce more jobs, trim energy costs and become a national leader in energy efficiency.
Without them, the county will have to cope with steeply rising energy costs, economic instability and a glum world of dwindling oil.
How new homes block natural air-con
A retired scientist with a passionate interest in "peak oil", Bruce is concerned about what he sees as wasteful and profligate use of energy to power air-conditioning."We should be adapting to the climate rather than air-conditioning everything," he said.
Experts call for alternative sources of energy by 2020
CAIRO (KUNA) -- Egyptian experts called, in an interview with the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA,) on Arab states to find secure and alternative sources of revenue than oil by 2020.They called for the use of nuclear energy "under international supervision." "Several armed conflicts are being waged, across the world, over competition for oil and water resources," the head of the Political Science Faculty at Helwan University, Dr. Sayed Elaywa told KUNA.
He added that, within the next 50 years, the entire world will witness a "large drop in natural gas and oil resources." This is likely to trigger a real catastrophe unless suitable alternatives are found, he said.
After insurgents attacked a link to a key oil export terminal on the Forcados River in Nigeria's Delta region in February 2006, it took a year and a half for Royal Dutch Shell to make repairs and get part of it running again. It took just two months for insurgents to shut it down again.The result: Just when oil-consuming countries want more high-quality petroleum to cool off high oil prices, a group of insurgents in the West African nation forced oil companies to stop pumping an average of 475,000 barrels a day last year, and at times as much as 600,000 barrels a day.
Oil stocks key to OPEC March output decision -Naimi
DUBAI (Reuters) - OPEC's output policy decision in March will depend on how much crude oil stocks have been drawn down during the winter, influential Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told Al Arabiya Television.Naimi said predictions of output decisions at the OPEC meeting in March were premature, but inventories were currently at the low end of the five-year average range.
Oil prices lose more than $3 a barrel
NEW YORK - Oil prices fell sharply Friday, closing well under $90 a barrel after a string of dismal economic reports renewed worries that a possible U.S. recession could stunt oil demand.
Ecuador, Venezuela join hands to build huge oil refinery
QUITO (Xinhua) -- Ecuador and Venezuela have planned to jointly build a huge oil refinery with a daily processing capacity of 300,000 barrels in Ecuador's coastal province of Manabi, said Ecuador's Mines and Oil Ministry Friday.
UK: Government 'connived' with Eon over Kingsnorth
Green campaigners claim a major Government energy strategy collapsed in just six minutes following an exchange of emails between ministers and a big energy company.Greenpeace claims the emails show Eon, the German utility giant, was dictating terms of approval of a new controversial coal-fired power it wants to build and rubbished a new technology which the Government was previously keen to push.
Montana: Gov. Schweitzer, Panelists Urge Aggressive Action on Climate Change
Naming global climate change as the most pressing issue facing the nation, Gov. Brian Schweitzer called for swift and decisive action by individuals, industry and government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a speech at the University of Montana Thursday night.“The fastest way to decrease our carbon footprint is to decrease our consumption of energy,” Schweitzer said in his keynote address before a panel discussion by state and local leaders on climate change policy.
Canada learns from the US, muzzles climate scientists
It's no secret that the Bush White House hasn't been much of a friend to science during its seven-year stretch: The Republican War on Science, a book detailing various political assaults on research, is a best seller. But those of you thinking that this phenomenon is specific to the United States need to think again. An astute reader let us know that just north of the border, Environment Canada, the government department responsible for protecting the Canadian environment, has enacted Deutsch-like restrictions over researchers' access to the media.All media requests to scientists working for Environment Canada now have to be sent to the capital, Ottawa, for approval. Journalists have to submit their questions in writing. "Sources say researchers are then asked to respond in writing to the media office, which then sends the answers to senior management for approval. If a researcher is eventually cleared to do an interview, he or she is instructed to stick to the 'approved lines.'"
“The fastest way to decrease our carbon footprint is to decrease our consumption of energy,” Schweitzer said in his keynote address before a panel discussion by state and local leaders on climate change policy.
This is the same Brian Schweitzer who thinks we should be making an all-out coal-to-liquids push. That's not exactly going to decrease the carbon footprint. In fact, I have become convinced that we are not going to address Global Warming at all, because we don't care to pay the price. And by address, I mean actually cause GHG emissions to decrease worldwide. We can pass all the Kyoto Protocols we want, but when gasoline consumption in the U.S., China, and India continue to increase - and China keeps building coal-fired power plants - then there is not much hope, IMO.
"Ecology and Capitalist Costs of Production: No Exit"
by Immanuel Wallerstein
"There are two different kinds of operations in preserving the environment. The first is the cleaning up of the negative effects of a production exercise (for example, combating chemical toxins that are a by-product of production, or removing non-biodegradable waste). The second is investment in the renewal of the natural resources that have been used (for example, replanting trees). Once again, the ecology movements have put forward a long series of specific proposals that would address these issues. In general, these proposals meet with considerable resistance on the part of the enterprises that would be affected by such proposals, on the grounds that these measures are far too costly, and would therefore lead to the curtailment of production.
The truth is that the enterprises are essentially right. These measures are indeed too costly, by and large, if we define the issue in terms of maintaining the present average worldwide rate of profit. They are too costly by far. Given the deruralization of the world and its already serious effect upon the accumulation of capital, the implementation of significant ecological measures, seriously carried out, could well serve as the coup de grƒce to the viability of the capitalist world-economy. Therefore, whatever the public relations stance of individual enterprises on these questions, we can expect unremitting foot-dragging on the part of capitalists in general. We are in fact faced with three alternatives. One, governments can insist that all enterprises internalize all costs, and we would be faced with an immediate acute profits squeeze. Or, two, governments can pay the bill for ecological measures (clean-up and restoration plus prevention), and use taxes to pay for this. But if one increases taxes, one either increases the taxes on the enterprises, which would lead to the same profits squeeze, or one raises taxes on everyone else, which would probably lead to an acute tax revolt. Or, three, we can do virtually nothing, which will lead to the various ecological catastrophes of which the ecology movements warn. So far, the third alternative has been carrying the day. In any case, this is why I say that there is "no exit," meaning by that that there is no exit within the framework of the existing historical system...."
http://www.binghamton.edu/fbc/iwecol.htm
It's really hard to argue with this. Last night I went to a presentation by a young, intense group (Cascadia Rising Tide) about global warming and carbon credit trading. They put on a superb program, and a brave face, but in the end, they were merely left with "hope" that people would wake up to the massive theft and environmental degradation that the various carbon-credit and cap-and-trade schemes produce-- and somehow get their elected representatives to stop it. The situation is even more dire than I had realized, and I'm afraid that in recent years I have always expected the worst.
Aha! The light bulb goes on!
Now think it through, all the way through. And be sure to not forget this:
People who expect "business as usual" to solve these problems are completely delusional. Chaco Canyon refutes that. The Mayans refute that. Mesopotamia refutes that.
But like good programmed homo sapiens, they will go on believing what they believe until they physically cannot believe it any longer.
P is for Piranha. Virtually everything coming out of the piranha class will make the situation worse. I qualify with "virtually" only because there is bound to be some mildly positive tertiary consequence.
cfm in Gray, ME
Hello NeverLNG,
Cascadia Rising Tide?--cool name! Once this young group realizes that 'hope' is futile: expect a shift to Secession, sequential building and enlargement of biosolar habitats, and ruthless Earthmarine mindset for optimal species protection. Just my speculation, of course.
Consider the Seed Bank now being stocked in Norway-- I suggest that any attempt by starving mobs to eat this vital reserve will be ruthlessly repelled by any and all measures from weaponized smallpox/ebola, to nukes, to snipers picking off adults to little kids-- whatever is required to protect this biota thru the coming postPeak transition.
IMO, Peak Outreach is the greatest info charity to mankind and the protection of biota for future generations the greatest gift. The question to be answered: can we develop a focused conflict method [such as Asimov's Foundations, Earthmarine vs Mercs, biosolars vs detritovore, etc] for optimal Bottleneck Squeeze? Or is a full, diffuse anarchy, grinding Thermo/Gene catabolic collapse, and extinction our fate?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
http://www.risingtidenorthamerica.org/wordpress/category/rising-tide-cas...
Cool group of young people who really care, and for the most part, walk the walk. Personally, I am becoming persuaded by Derik Jensen's idea that "hope is a narcotic" -- but that may be too harsh and cynical. These kids are actually making a difference in the world, and in them lies hope for the human race.
This looks cool - any sense of how many members it has? How long has it been around? The Relocalize folks have frowned on our efforts here and WiserEarth.org is huge, but I'm not having the time/sense to get any traction with it ... would be nice to expand horizons and this sounds like an intriguing group.
There was recently an article in the New Yorker about seed banks. There was(is?) one in Russia (St. Petersburg if I remember correctly) and during WWII one or more of the caretakers actually starved to death guarding the seeds from other starving people.
You must be referring to Nicolai Vavilov.
An amazing Russian scientist, his story written up
in this Russian site .
It goes on... reporting on our own Al Gore visiting the site and using American funds to try to save the collection of ancient seeds Vavilov so painstakingly amassed.
Great Reference, Hardhat, thanks!
As James Thurber said as the moral of one of his tales..
"There's no safety in numbers, or in anything else!"
Bob
Bob, I always enjoy your posts and find them upbeat, even if some others may not. I'd like to think that sort of 'planetary patriotism' will emerge but so far I haven't seen it except in a very few outliers.
Hope so. I think the secession - or at least talk of it - is reasonably likely at some point, but Earthmarines don't exist now when it would be relatively painless and the information is all to be had for the taking, so I really don't see it happening. Talk is one thing, action another. Guess we'll see.
Frankly, I wish they'd hide the damn thing. Seems more pragmatic than squirting ebola on the mobs. Oh, and replicate it in about 3 dozen places including the antarctic.
I have to say that thinking of such 'seed banks' reminds me a lot of the movie "silent running" with Bruce Dern; anyone into doomer porn should see it. Be a good earthmarine recruiting film.
THAT should be a keypost... why don't you write it?
Cheers.
You might want to read this opinion about the seed bank before getting all misty eyed. If Engdahl is right - and he certain puts forth a strong case - then this seedbank is all about Monsanto and Dupont hedging their bets as they screw around with plant genetics. Sort of the ultimate DNA backup.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7529
The misty eyes are for the preservation of species. The motivation of those doing it quite secondary, though as noted I'd like to see seed banks replicated in many places.
I don't doubt that Monsanto, Dupont, etc have their own calculations, but on brief reading Engdahl comes off as a bit nuts. I have a hard time buying this as part of a Nazi-esque eugenics program.
Saving seeds and species is a good idea.
I agree that it is a good idea - but one thing you can be sure of: those investing companies are not doing it out of the kindness of their hearts (despite what good intentions some individuals might have). They will be seeing the possibility for profit/power down the line somewhere.
Yeah, I agree, but use the term "inertia" because such exists on Nature's side too. I see two large wheels--Mill Stones--one representing BAU, the other Nature; only one is several orders of magnitude larger than the other, which makes it clear that when the wheels meet the smaller will be easily crushed by the larger. The larger wheel is Nature's Natural Systems. As noted, previous human BAU wheels--Mayan, Mesopotamian, Sarasvati (Vedic), Roman--have met the Natural Wheel and we can see the results.
good analogy. and the Way in which the larger wheel operates is called Dao. LaoZi had all this as well as the solution figured out way before the so called "Christian era."
I think any grown up over the age of 25 knows that we will choose option #3"...do virtually nothing..."
Any doomsdayer worth his oats has by now read Jared Diamonds' "Collapse". The grim conclusion that Diamond reached in his thoroughly entertaining treatise was that societies that are focused on their lifestyle and political competition will forego longterm goals for the sake of status and power.
Even his Anthropology students had to ask the inevitable question:
"What did the Easter Islander think who cut down the last tree on Easter Island?"
Currently, due to the monster of "globalization", we earthlings are accelerating our collapse and this time the collapse will not be regional but global in nature. Like the ancient Easter Islanders we are isolated on a small planet in a relatively obscure solar system , with no close neighbors. Nationalities are in fierce competition with one another for hegeomony, status and resources. Root causes: overpopulation and enviromental destruction.
One huge irony is that the consuming nations assume that there will be a winner at the end of this "competition". If we could grasp the lesson of the long extinct Norse civilization in Greenland 800 years ago:
"..the winners were the ones who had the priveledge of being the last ones to starve to death..."
Hi joemichaels and Leanan,
Every so often, I'd like to interject the article below into the discussion, when we draw on the history of "Easter Island" as an example.
"Easter Island" or Rapa Nui can still teach us a lot - it's just that its important to take an fresh, objective look at the evidence, as well. There are new lessons to be learned.
Really worth a read (IMVHO).
http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/53200?full...
Rethinking the Fall of Easter Island by Terry Hunt. In the American Scientist.
Aniya - Thank-you for the aritcle in American Scientist. Although I think that the demise of the Easter Islanders may have been more complex than perhaps Diamond may have concluded, the questions that remain unanswered is if the easter Islanders were increasing at a prolific 3% annually and the maximum population that Easter Island reached was 3,000 and not 15,000 what were the factors that kept their numbers to the more sustainable level of 3,000 prior to the arrival of Europeans? War, genocide, starvation? If the Easter Islanders percieved that the rats were a danger to their survival it would have taken a relatively short time to bring the rat populations into control. After all we have to assume that the Islanders were intelligent enough to understand their delicate ecosystems better than late-coming archaeologists. Who destroyed the massive monolithic monuments? The natives or the European invaders? Why?
The thing that makes the Easter Islanders collapse even more appropriate as an example of our future collapse is the invasion of humans followed much later by the introduction of the European invaders. The impacts of Globalization and corporate slavery of less developed nations, World Bank Policies, deforestation, invasive species, mono-agriculture, Peak Oil, Global Warming...these are no doubt all complex factors that will all have to be considered when future scientists grapple with the reasons for the collapse of human society on planet Earth.
How?
You have 3,000 people and millions of rats on 160sq km of substantially-forested island, and your most sophisticated technology is an outrigger canoe. How, exactly, do you plan to reduce the rat population and prevent them from breeding to re-fill the niche?
I think you're making assumptions here that are not at all warranted. Even now, with modern technology, Australia has largely failed to control its rabbit population; there's no indication that the inhabitants of Rapa Nui would have had the ability to control the rat population of their island.
Hey Pitt - thanks for the question. You state that there were millions of rats. What do you base that assertion on other than exponential growth rates. This a a relatively small island. What were the limitations to rat populations other than human predators? Food. When rat populations overwhelms the food supply rats have a very basic form of population control: Cannibalism.
Also I suggest you re-read James Clavells' "King Rat". The basics of the story is how a large group of Allied prisoners of war on a small pacific island learned to survive using rats and cockroaches as a vital source of protien. They caged, captured and harvested the rats using very simple technologies.
The rabbits of Australia had the ready expanse of a continent to spread and seek refuge. The rats of easter Island had nowhere to go. Rat eradication is energy intensive yet a low technology endeavor. It would have required an intensive local program (remember on Easter Island everthing was local)that would have have easily curtailed rat populations to tolerable levels.
Perhaps the rats, as in the Clavell's novel, were used by the Easter islanders as a vital source of protein?
Now about that "Outrigger canoe" comment...? Please!
There is little that can be done to stem the tide of consumption. And, consumption is the driving force of GHG emissions. Until the issue of consumption is addressed, there is no hope of altering emissions.
Consumption will not be addressed, for it is the corner-stone of all economies. There is no courage to destroy such a fearsome beast, for we all fear that we will destroy our chances at fame and fortune along with it. If only the human race developed the ability to see beyond our own prosperity.
Thank you.
Mark Twain, the anti dote to the Gilded Age.
Which begat the Fed Res, Income tax, and the ability to fight
WWI.
I'm confused about the relative pronoun. Are you saying Mark Twain started the Fed Res, etc., or the Gilded Age did? If the latter, it certainly didn't start there -- that was just the first flare of the resurgent sun of global empire in the USA after its early experiments with "freedom for some." I'm pretty sure that most of the founding fathers and the occasional founding mother were firmly in the camp of Empire-- they just wanted to make sure that they, not the English or the French or the Spanish or the Russians were in control. "Democracy" was exploited as a tool to get control of the continent, and having achieved that, Democracy is to be shrunk back down where it belongs and flushed down the bathtub. The program is progressing swimmingly.
I know you were focused on GW, but the same thing is true of the Peak Oil debate. Consider the discussion between Simmons, Hirsch and Rubin (we are very close to or past Peak Oil) versus the positions taken by ExxonMobil, OPEC and CERA (we don't have to worry about Peak Oil for decades).
Even many of the people who believe that Simmons, et al are correct don't want to rock the boat, i.e., the "Enron Effect," they have a vested financial interest in continued consumption and they don't want to bring down the whole house of cards.
I guess that all we can do is to warn those who will listen and then continue to bail out of highly energy dependent assets like large suburban homes--via sales to the true believers in the Yerginite Community.
I would further say that it is not just that "they don't want to bring down the whole house of cards". But also that they have considered the options of reducing consumption and increasing consumption, and have decided that what is best for them - personally - is their perception that greater prosperity via increasing consumption allows a better defense against any changes in the future. Money is power. Power over everything, including Nature.
It is this core belief - that money and prosperity is the greatest defense - that is the essence of the human race. Nothing will (or can) abate this belief in the greater power of prosperity over all things.
And, you are correct to point out that consumption is not just about GW, but also about energy (and PO, specifically). Any discussion of reducing consumption will cause most of the human race undue discomfort. We don't want to think that tomorrow will not be easier than today.
"It is this core belief - that money and prosperity is the greatest defense - that is the essence of the human race. Nothing will (or can) abate this belief in the greater power of prosperity over all things."
Spot on! and this truth spells the end of humanity.
It seems to be the conclusion of most peakniks too. That a big part of their "plan" is to get more money as if that will insure a softer landing.
Focus more on HUMANITY and less on the dehumanizing activity of getting more money.
But money can insure a softer landing. Do you want all the capital in the hands of peak oil and global warming deniers, or do you want it in the hands of people who have come to terms with reality and are looking to put it to work in ways that improve the situation?
Westexas has it right--people who understand the situation should be unloading their SUVs and McMansions onto the Yerginites. They should be investing in oil futures contracts and solar panels on their homes. They should definitely seek to prosper at the expense of the deniers. It's nature's way of dealing with fools.
I've phrased it this way:
What is the fundamental intrinsic value of the world's 100 largest oil fields without the world's 100 largest financial institutions?
What is the fundamental intrinsic value of the world's 100 largest financial institutions without the world's 100 largest oil fields?