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DrumBeat: February 25, 2008
Posted by Leanan on February 25, 2008 - 9:46am
Topic: Alternative energy
Russia quietly prepares to switch some oil trading from dollars to rubles
MOSCOW: Russia, the world's second-largest oil-exporting nation after Saudi Arabia, has been quietly preparing to switch trading in Russian Ural Blend oil, the country's primary export, from the dollar to the ruble. But the change, if it comes, is still some time off, industry analysts and officials said.The Russian effort began modestly this month, with trading in refined products for the domestic market.
Still, the effort to squeeze the dollar out of Russian oil sales marks another project with swagger and ambition by the Kremlin, which has already wielded its energy wealth to assert influence in Eastern Europe and in former Soviet states.
"They are serious," said Yaroslav Lissovolik, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Moscow. "This is something they are giving priority to."
Texas oilman takes on Gazprom over giant contract claim
BERLIN: In a court case closely watched by investors, a Texas company is accusing Gazprom of refusing to honor an investment and property agreement in one of Russia's biggest gas fields.Richard Moncrief, chairman of Moncrief Oil International, said he had decided to use the German courts to establish what he says is a 40 percent stake worth $12 billion, in the vast Yuzhno-Russkoye gas field of western Siberia. The field is intended to supply the underwater Nord Stream pipeline, through which Russia will be able to supply natural gas directly to Germany and Western Europe, bypassing Ukraine, Belarus and Poland.
Companies call for oilsands development freeze: report
For the first time, major oil producers are calling on the Alberta government to introduce a partial moratorium on oilsands development in the province's north, according to a newspaper report.
Progress seen in Nigeria's efforts to collect all oil royalties due
ABUJA, Nigeria: Nigeria has made some headway in getting its fair share of oil revenues from foreign energy companies, but the country, the largest crude producer in Africa, still loses hundreds of millions of dollars each year to theft, according to independent overseers.Nigeria passed legislation last year establishing an independent body, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, or Neiti, to make sure that major oil companies pay the necessary royalties and taxes.
But anti-corruption activists, while welcoming Neiti, say the law is not strong enough to fully clean up a secretive industry that has spurred systemic corruption in the most populous nation in Africa.
Alaska governor defies oil giants and own party
ANCHORAGE (Reuters) - Alaska's Sarah Palin has made a habit of taking on big opponents and winning, but the Republican governor is facing her toughest fight yet after locking horns with the state's powerful oil industry.Palin, 44 has taken direct aim at the traditional comfortable partnership between the the big three oil companies in the state - BP, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil -- and the state Republican party.
Chinese interest in Arctic riches heating up: Calgary political scientist
CALGARY - There's a new global player that wants in on the vast oil and gas reserves that the Arctic region is believed to hold - China.
Saudi Arabia May Urge OPEC to Hold Quotas, CGES Says
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer, may lobby OPEC to maintain output quotas at its March 5 meeting while trimming its own production to curb global supply, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said."OPEC is likely to desist from making any output cuts until the second half of the year," the London-based center, known as CGES, said in a report e-mailed today. "Saudi Arabia may insist on keeping quotas the same while varying its own output in pursuit of high prices."
Arctic oil bonanza worries Alaska natives
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - Modern technology and surging oil prices have suddenly made the prospect of drilling in the remote, icy Chukchi Sea irresistible to the world's oil giants -- and that is worrying the Inupiat people who have lived at the sea's edge for centuries.
US to set 'binding' climate goals
The US is ready to accept "binding international obligations" on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, officials say, if other nations do the same.The comments came in a news conference in Paris given by James Connaughton and Daniel Price, environmental and economics advisers to President Bush.
The US hopes the world's major economies will conclude a "leaders' declaration" before the July G8 summit.
The people of Iceland awaken to a stark choice: exploit a wealth of clean energy or keep their landscape pristine....As the project progressed, it gradually became clear that Kárahnjúkar was bigger than anyone had imagined. Even Jóhann Kröyer, project manager for the dams and tunnels, remarked over dinner at a work-site canteen: “I think maybe people didn’t realize how huge this project is.”
But as the months passed, a growing and significant minority did realize it, and a kind of national family feud erupted — ostensibly framed around the irreversible impact on the land of the gigantic dam, the blocking of two glacial rivers, and the resultant flooding of the highland wilderness for the reservoir. Iceland had obtained an exemption from the Kyoto Protocol pollution limits, which would expire in 2012, adding an element of urgency, and future smelters and expansions were on the drawing board. Was the government going to take one of the world’s cleanest countries and offer it up as a dumping ground for heavy industry?
China faces shortage of 6 billion tons of oil
TOKYO, Feb 25 (KUNA) -- China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, faces a shortage of 6 billion tons of oil and 600 million cubic meters of natural gas over the next few years, as the country has entered a phase of rapid mineral consumption amid its rapid industrialization, the official media reported Monday."An insufficient supply of resources has become a major bottleneck for the country's development," Wang Min, vice-minister of land and resources, told a national geological survey conference in Beijing, according to the China Daily. Given the goal of doubling the nation's gross domestic output, China is expected to consume 510 million tons of oil, 20 million cubic meters of natural gas, 3.7 billion tons of coal, 400 million tons of steel, 6.6 million tons of copper and 13 million tons of alumina by 2010, Wang noted.
Russian oil supply stop unsettles Germany
BERLIN (UPI) - A surprising oil delivery stop and an unwanted Russian intermediate firm have managed to increase Germany's concern over energy security.It remains somewhat of a mystery what has caused Russian supplier Lukoil to stop exports to Germany for a second time in less than a year. At least one thing is clear, though: As in most energy rows Russia has had, the latest one is also about money.
Gulf currency union far off, says UAE
Gulf Arab oil producers are still at the start of forming a single currency and may not follow the European Union model, the United Arab Emirates central bank governor said on Monday.
Doomsday vault tunneled into Arctic mountain
LONGYEARBYEN, Norway - A "doomsday" vault built to withstand an earthquake or nuclear strike was ready to open deep in the permafrost of an Arctic mountain, where it will protect millions of seeds from man-made and natural disasters.
Big Foot - In measuring carbon emissions, it’s easy to confuse morality and science
Possessing an excessive carbon footprint is rapidly becoming the modern equivalent of wearing a scarlet letter. Because neither the goals nor acceptable emissions limits are clear, however, morality is often mistaken for science. A recent article in New Scientist suggested that the biggest problem arising from the epidemic of obesity is the additional carbon burden that fat people — who tend to eat a lot of meat and travel mostly in cars — place on the environment. Australia briefly debated imposing a carbon tax on families with more than two children; the environmental benefits of abortion have been discussed widely (and simplistically). Bishops of the Church of England have just launched a “carbon fast,” suggesting that during Lent parishioners, rather than giving up chocolate, forgo carbon. (Britons generate an average of a little less than ten tons of carbon per person each year; in the United States, the number is about twice that.)
Bali Confirmed the Shift: Nation Is On Board Now
WASHINGTON - It's missing the point to think about the United Nations climate change conference in Bali last December based upon on whether specific targets were agreed upon or not. This point ignores dramatic historical changes in the world concerning climate change-related attitudes and approaches. Bali is not Kyoto. The new consensus among the U.S. Congress, President George Bush, and leaders of formerly recalcitrant countries such as India, China, and Australia is this: The international community recognizes climate change, recognizes our shared contribution to it and its impact on all of us, and recognizes our shared responsibility in tackling it.
It is a puzzle why so much emphasis is now put on the supposed inevitable continuity of modern industrial life. The argument goes that humans are so very clever that they have brilliantly overcome every resource and ecological constraint on their way to becoming the dominant species. And, now with our powerful new technologies we are poised to dominate the globe forever while adding to it the conquest of outer space. Perhaps every empire including the empire of modern man thinks along similar lines.But a cursory study of history should lead us to conclude no such thing. Humans have squandered opportunities, let their ambition lead them to destruction, run out of natural resources, and despoiled the landscape beyond repair again and again. Human societies do not always triumph. They tend to rise and fall as if they had a natural life cycle.
OPEC set to fine-tune oil output to match demand
LONDON — A seasonal drop in demand will lead OPEC to curb oil shipments unofficially in the short term, even if it leaves its formal target alone, officials from producer nations and executives said.
Iran shrugs off sanctions threat over atomic plans
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran voiced defiance on Monday as Western powers pushed for new sanctions over its nuclear programme, saying high oil prices will cushion the blow.
THE WORLD still has plenty of oil. What humanity is running out of is cheap oil.That fact’s unlikely to change, ever. Which means that historically high costs for crude oil – and, by extension, more expensive prices at the gas pumps – are here to stay.
China's tight coal supply could further limit power
BEIJING: China's shortage of thermal coal could lead to a serious power shortage this year unless additional measures are taken, state media reported on Monday, citing an official from the China Electricity Council.
Santos planning US$12 billion ethanol project
MEXICO: Mexican sugar producer Grupo Santos is planning a US$12 billion ethanol initiative despite the fact that Mexico's legal framework would block project development, Grupo Santos president Alberto Santos de Hoyos told BNamericas, confirming a report from newspaper Reforma.The project would entail building 60 ethanol plants that would produce a total of 381.4 MMcf per year of ethanol using sugar cane as feedstock, the paper reported.
GM crops can meet India's food, biofuel needs
MUMBAI: India, which recorded the fastest growth in genetically modified (GM) crop adoption globally, could attain food self sufficiency once it allows commercialisation of GM crops, the head of a global research body said on Monday."India can become self sufficient in food production by use of biotechnology in food crops," Clive James, chairman of the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications, told reporters in an interview.
Energy justice concerns minorities
Black energy industry professionals concerned about the vulnerability of low-income minorities to supply and price volatility want to have a greater say in the distribution of fuel, electricity and other energy sources.
Government seeks UK's first 'cycling city'
The government today launched a £47m quest to establish a British "cycling city" that would get more people on to two wheels, and cut congestion and pollution.The winning metropolis will join London, which has already announced a £400m cycling and walking programme, in launching a series of initiatives including new cycle routes and training schemes.
Britain's year zero: UK to leap from 'laggard to leader' on carbon dioxide emissions
All new buildings will have to be pollution free, according to a government target to be unveiled this week. As only a handful fit the bill today, there's a long way to go.
Canada: Federal carbon tax proposed
OTTAWA - A carbon tax of $30 a tonne, three times higher than the tax announced last week by the B.C. government, would be part of Tuesday's federal budget if the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives had its way.
Argentina seeks to avoid energy crisis, as Brazil refuses to share Bolivian natural gas
RIO DE JANEIRO: Brazil has declined to cede any of its imports of Bolivian natural gas to Argentina, which is struggling to find more energy sources to avoid supply shortages that could derail its fast-growing economy.Argentina and Brazil are facing the possibility of short-term energy crises from a lack of natural gas, which is needed to fuel industries and generate electricity for residents. Bolivia is sitting in the middle, with the region's largest gas reserves.
Companies must provide power to change
Britain's energy companies must transform the way in which they produce, distribute and price power if the public's efforts to become more energy efficient are to have an impact, the chief executive of the UK's consumer energy body argues.According to Allan Asher, the chief executive of energywatch: “Nothing's going to change unless we reinvent the way that firms produce, distribute and derive profits from energy - and the first thing to do is to break the link with ever-increasing sales and consumption. It's a surprising fact that still, today, every single energy firm charges us less per unit of energy the more we use."
In the short term, the growth in ultra-heavy production is expected come from two main sources—the oilsands of Alberta and the Orinco Belt in Venezuela. But other basins will add to supplies longer term.
Good old days of spending at Pentagon will soon come to an end
It's obvious, when you think about it. If the U.S. had no present or prospective "peer competitor", how could the Pentagon justify spending huge amounts of money on next-generation weapons? For beating up on "rogue states", last-generation-but-one weapons are more than adequate. So there has to be a peer competitor, whether it understands its role in the scheme of things or not. And only China can fill that role.So what is the alleged competition about? Energy, of course, and mostly oil. Michael Klare again: "The Pentagon and U.S. strategists talk openly about U.S.-China competition for energy in Africa, in the Caspian Sea basin, and in the Persian Gulf, and they talk about the danger of a China-Russia strategic alliance that the U.S. has to be able to counter. This is very much part of U.S. concerns. They talk about the Shanghai Co-operation Organization as a proto-military alliance that threatens America's vital interests."
New Zealand: Emergency power costs consumers big
Mr Brownlee says he has been told that the Whirinaki plant is burning between 700,000 and one million litres of diesel a day. It is one of the more expensive ways to generate power and is obviously at odds with Labour’s climate change claims.“Consumers are facing big power price increases over winter, as energy chiefs warn of a 1,000 M/W shortfall in the North Island. That may mean cold showers and will result in industrial shut downs.
“Burning diesel is expensive and it’ll hit us all in the hip pocket. Labour has utterly failed to future-proof our energy infrastructure.
Energy firms harness tidal stream
Potential opportunities for firms to exploit the energy reserves in the north of Scotland are being promoted.Possible developments in the Pentland Firth are being investigated by industry executives.
Regenerating From Wasted Energy
Earlier this month, researchers at a Canadian venture firm Bionic Power showed a man-power generator called Biomechanical Energy Harvester.The device, which resembles an orthopedic knee brace, can generate up to five watts of power without any discomfort to the wearer. For example, for every minute of walking, the device can generate enough power for 10 minutes of talk time on a typical mobile phone, the firm says.
The innovative part of the device is that it can actually make walking more comfortable and less tiring for the wearer of the device. People walk by moving each leg forwards and backwards. The device operates during the end of the moving phase of each leg, which is similar to the braking phase of an automobile or an elevator. Thus, it helps to decelerate and simultaneously produces electrical power.
Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons is somewhat surprised and obviously pleased that his 2005 'Twilight in the Desert' has now surpassed 100,00 copies in print -- making it a best seller of sorts -- and that it is now available in German, Chinese, Japanese and Korean.But what really pleases him is that despite early and inaccurate accusations that his book criticizes Saudi Aramco for mismanaging Saudi Arabia's giant oil fields, his research efforts have won the praise of the very people who assumed they were the target of his pen.
That praise, however, hasn't tempered his conviction that the world as we know it is about to change irrevocably as the demand for petroleum outpaces supply.
Oil prices approach $100 a barrel
Oil prices pushed toward $100 a barrel Monday as the Turkish incursion into northern Iraq and warnings by Iran against further sanctions heightened concerns over potential crude supply disruptions.Turkish troops fired more than 40 salvos of artillery shells Monday across the Iraqi border against Kurdish rebels, a day after the military confirmed a Turkish helicopter crashed in Iraq and eight soldiers were killed.
UAE company to build new refinery in Abu Dhabi
The Abu Dhabi Oil Refining Company (TAKREER) of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Monday that it will build a new refinery in Abu Dhabi Emirate to boost its refinery capacity, Emirates News Agency reported. When completed by 2013, the new refinery will have a capacity of 417,000 barrels per day (bpd), representing 86 percent of TAKREER's current installed refining capacity, according to the report.
In a column in the Trib on President Bush’s recent visit to the Middle East in search of more and cheaper oil, Jonathan Gurwitz asks us to imagine the United States as dependent on hostile, unstable nations for our food supply as we currently are for oil.No need to imagine.
The alarming truth is that today’s food production does depend on petroleum.
High food prices may force aid rationing
The United Nation’s agency responsible for relieving hunger is drawing up plans to ration food aid in response to the spiralling cost of agricultural commodities.
Can Turkish economy survive high energy prices?
One of the test beds of peak oil, or supply constraints, is Turkey. The country is not gifted with many hydrocarbon reserves and faces a decline in its oil production. The rising thirst of energy for this developing country relies on exports from close countries. Natural gas, which is not peaking soon, is also a twin brother of oil in terms of pricing of the contracts, yet Turkey has no chance on this front either.
Historically, says Kunstler, NASCAR is a regional derivative: “The NASCAR subculture arose in the South, the old Dixie states, where the automobile had had tremendous social transformative power … where it liberated the red-necked peasantry from the oppression of geographic isolation.”NASCAR is a balm, a salvation, says Kunstler, for “a nation of outsourced blue-collar jobs, shrinking incomes, vanishing medical insurance, rising fuel and heating costs and net-zero personal savings”
Legislative environment grows heated
Washington State University economist Melissa Ahern is an expert on peak oil, the theory that the planet already has reached its maximum oil production level and faces steeply rising oil prices and a deepening global recession — not in centuries but in a decade or two. She delivered her own urgent message to a Senate committee Thursday evening.Asked how the nation can reduce its dependence on liquid petroleum, she came down on the side of both conservation and technological innovation.
David Pimentel - Corn can't save us: Debunking the biofuel myth
Dwindling foreign oil, rising prices at the gas pump, and hype from politically well-connected U.S. agribusiness have combined to create a frenzied rush to convert food grains into ethanol fuel. The move is badly conceived and ill advised. Corporate spin and pork barrel legislation aside, here, by the numbers, are the scientific reasons why corn won't provide our energy needs...
Was the sale of these assets in the best financial and strategic interests of the people of this country in these days of Peak Oil, where the world demand for petroleum is outstripping the supply, and our resources are being depleted?
Why I didn't buy a new family car
Gas mileage issues have moved to the top of my list of reasons for not purchasing a new family car. According to the Jan. 3 NCT article, "Record gas prices signify a crude reality," other consumers apparently agree. Sadly, too many of the 2008 family vehicles are gas-guzzlers at a time when peak oil prices are skyrocketing and more increases are on the horizon.Many consumers, myself included, can no longer afford to drive from one end of Escondido and back again in a car that gets 12 miles to the gallon. Commuting to and from San Diego in the same car is akin to flushing dollar bills down the toilet just to watch them swirl away into the abyss.
60 insurers attending Marsh NOC confab
Not less than 60 Nigerian insurers are among over 400 people attending this weeks National Oil Companies’ conference in Dubai. The energy conference is the second of the annual seminar convoked by Marsh, world’s leading insurance broker.
Coffee, confection and the trillion dollar climate connection!
A just completed UN study calls for a $20 trillion global investment in climate change abatement over the next 20 years. This higher-than-usual price tag is no doubt a gross cost figure. Doubtless, too, the $20 trillion figure responds to the demands of a more alarmed scientific community. In any event, $20 trillion is equivalent to1.5 per cent of global GDP for the coming two decades. That’s about three times the rate estimated by Nicholas Stern for the first 20 years of climate change mitigation.
David Pimentel - Corn can't save us: Debunking the biofuel myth, link above.
David, David, all this has been said before, many times over. Why do you, and we, keep repeating the same old crap over and over and over? Simply because it is true? No, that is not a good enough reason. There has to be another reason we keep beating our heads against the wall about the terrible tragedy of our very stupid ethanol program. There must be another reason but for the life of me I cannot figure out what it is.
Ron Patterson
The answer is simple -- people in general are "magical" thinkers. In our enlightened age people continue to believe in the equivalent of the tooth fairy as an explanation for most phenomena. Most people couldn't tell how we know the earth goes around the sun, or why there are lunar eclipses. Almost no one has any concept of "entropy" -- and vanishingly small numbers have any idea about various forms of energy. Virtually everyone is completely baffled by any explanation involving calculation, and almost no one will sit still long enough to even try. And I include all those good-hearted people who only want to help make the world a better place, and who have been to college.
Yesterday I was at a friend's house dividing up packages of a frozen pig that we had bought to share. For a while we left the freezer door open to get at the packages. I asked my usual trick question -- "how long will it take to cool down the kitchen if we just leave this freezer door open?" And of course, the answers were the usual total misunderstanding of how a freezer works.
People spend their money on the lottery, believing it to be an "investment", and they continue to spend money on courses that teach them "think and grow rich" or "pray and grow rich."
Walt Disney has bridged the gap between the medieval world and the petroleum world-- and in the process, has capture the modern mind.
Magic and power is what it's all about. Rational thought is a deviant form.
You're lucky they weren't a bunch of engineers or before you could stop them the freezer would be up on bricks with the back side sticking out the window and polystyrene foam and tape all strapped up around it. :-)
For better or worse, most of my friends don't have engineering degrees. The person in question has a PhD in English.
But you are right -- there are little nests of geeks among us, and they are the ones who have created technical progress, despite all odds.
Somehow, the process of rational thought has to be moved from the geek world to the "real" world. I don't have a clue about that, since the forces enforcing magical thinking are in charge of education and the media, and are so much more powerful than anything I have been able to do. Not much has changed since the days of the medieval Church that enforced illiteracy -- except that these days they are so much more clever, and have convinced us to choose illiteracy and innumeracy.
I dunno. There are some who would say "geeks" are the ones who got us into this mess.
No man is an island entire unto itself, and nothing exists in a vacuum.
The geeks played their part, as did the scholars, researchers, philosophers, politicians, lobbyists, advertisers, corporations, media, religion, and the vast, unwashed, blissfully ignorant masses.
We haven't been able to wrap our heads around all the various issues, structures, and processes for thousands of years.
Our system is unmanageably complex.
And there is also the problem of rational thought. Humans may have the capacity to be rational, but they do not always behave that way. Humans, inevitably, will do emotional ("irrational") things as well as rational things.
The human mind is good at not seeing the gaps and boundaries.
How often do you notice the blind spot in your retina?
How often do you notice the edges of your visual field?
Answer: almost never.
We are in constant denial of our every limitation. Why isn't each of us an expert in everything?
We don't question. Instead we have invented a beehive system where each of us is a "specialist" in some narrowly focused aspect of our hive works. One of us is a "politician, lobbyist, advertiser, corporate animal, media maniac, religionist", etc. and yes, even a techno geek.
The geek is no better or smarter than the rest of the worker bees. None of us can see when stuff slips past our blind spots. For example, most techno geeks are blind to social interactions. Dilbert can't see when the management is beating him down yet again. Dogbert wins every time.
____
(click to enlarge --warning, won't work for body parts)
It is not really all that complex. Many are astounded by the results of the process and see complexity while the process itself is actually pretty simple. The ecosystem seems complex but the process that gave us the ecosystem and the diversity of life is not.
Those that are emeshed in the matrix of the technosystem with their specialized functions are truly amazed at the seeming complexity of it all. This perceived complexity supports magical thinking.
geeks attempt to solve whatever problem is put in front of them
they tend to be under-represented in the class of people who prioritize the problems
I don't view it as unreasonable to have a "default" belief in progress, since empirically it has been what's happened in recent memory: My grandmother told stories about life from just before WWII, through the blitz and in to postwar deprivation. My mother had a better quality of life. My sister and I have had even better lives (so far). I'm an educated computer scientist/engineer, and I personally wouldn't bet against pulling a technological rabbit out of the hat. But until I see a multiply verified, production scale rabbit I'm planning for the possibility of a severe energy and resource crunch.
The two things I find most worrying is that (i) people in general won't entertain even the possibility that things may be heading for a crunch, and (ii) almost everyone these days regard it as more important to win an argument than figure out "the truth". Although it'd be disappointing for an engineer not to figure out theoretically that the fridge won't cool the containing room, the unforgivable thing would be to not go grab a thermometer to validate whether a claimed cooling of the room was occurring but just maintain one's argument about what must be happening.
The mistakes are in thinking that progress is inevitable and automatic, in thinking that progress is always a totally good thing (instead of it sometimes being a mixed bag), and in thinking that progress is a one way street, that regress is impossible. Most people operate assuming all three of these are true, but they are not.
This is the most astute observation I have seen on this site. Ever.
Read some thoughts on "progress" from Wendell Berry in this excellent essay about his work:
http://www.ovpes.org/2003/Collins.pdf
And here I thought it was just common sense... and common knowledge.
Crap. We *are* in trouble.
Cheers
Kurt Cobb's just written an article about that mindset - http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/. Quite a good read.
Where in the room would you hold that thermometer, and for how long would you take readings?
The reality of the situation would be very complex, but it was (presumably) supposed to be a simple demonstration to show how little people apply the basic notion of conservation of energy to the world around them - for example, a large steel and concrete structure being turned mostly to dust by it's own gravitational potential energy...
That's a little over the top, but I think you get the picture.
People generally think that cold and heat are substances that stoves and freezers make. They don't think of a unified theory of heat, not even on an intuitive level
I think I'll hold my thermometer up against the condenser tubes of the refrigerator. :-)
My comment was simply that although it's disappointing when people get arguments based on physics and maths wrong, it happens. I manage to confuse myself in the area in which I'm a highly educated expert every so often. The most fundamental thing is to actively investigate to see if you're right or wrong, and if you turn out to be wrong rethink things. That's what's good about all most of the stuff at the oil drum (ELM, etc): it's based on careful reasoning but people are looking for confirmation/disproof in real world numbers.
Me, if I had thought the refrigerator would cool the room, I'd go to the middle of the room with the thermometer and wait half an hour. If there was no noticeable effect on the temperature I'd be forced to rethink things. (Incidentally, I'm not a physicist but I think it's 2nd law of thermodynamics not conservation of energy that applies here.)
I agree, but my questions were rhetorical. As step back pointed out, you could hold the thermometer anywhere. My point was that the example should be thought of in less complex terms - it was just a simple illustrative example.
"(Incidentally, I'm not a physicist but I think it's 2nd law of thermodynamics not conservation of energy that applies here.)"
The 1st law of thermodynamics still applies to the 2nd law...
It's also the law of inefficient heat engines (Carnot engines) that applies.
The refrigerator is less than 100% efficient. On first look you might assume that the coolness it produces is balanced by the heat emitted from the condenser coils. But not so. The compressor produces additional heat. So do accessories in the refrigerator like lights, defroster mechanism, fans, etc. So the refrigerator is a net heat source, with or without its door being open. :-)
The geeks (and I number myself among them), who are atypical in their pursuit of technical excellence, have contributed tremendously to the problem. They have given these "magical" devices to vast numbers of people who don't understand their principles or the full consequences of their use. In fact, they themselves, in their narrow focus on making and creating things, do not understand the systems into which they inject these devices and cannot apprehend the full consequences to the world when the widget they have worked on multiplies into the millions and billions. The humble refrigerator and air conditioner both have produced vast quantities of CO2 and affected the development patterns of suburbia on a large scale. And even knowing these things, it seems unlikely that the geeks would stop what they are doing, not when there are so many rewards to be made from it.
The technology used in everyday life has advanced so far from anything most people can understand, that they have become used to "magic". There is not much difference between the things so many do all the time to make things happen, and the kinds of things that are used in "Harry Potter".
I do this, and that happens - I do not know why. I move this mouse thing and click on the pretty icons and stuff happens. I say a couple of words and I can talk to someone on the other side of the world through a little thing in my ear. Is that so much different than waving a wand and speaking magic words?
In my opinion it doesn't matter - it all has to do with access to excess energy. That in turn allows enough excess food production capacity that large parts of the society can engage in non-food production pursuits, like science and engineering. Eventually that trend will reverse, the stuff will fail and not be replaced, and the magic of technology will become a memory of past glories.
It's just the conversion of oil into magic.
great laughs, thanks.
Today I just explained the simple concept of turning off the fridge in winter and keeping your beer on the balcony and some kind of box for butter and iceberg lettuce and meat... What about global warming I was asked?
Hmm. It was 24 degrees yesterday in the Grisons (Switz. - and not! in the South.) and in my own flat, with the radiators turned off, I was sweating in a tank top and shorts and cursing the sun. (All the curtains are removed in the winter. The place was built to get max. sun heat, it is a kind of greenhouse, and the *building* is heated, I’m on the top floor, there are pipes with hot water in them in the floors etc. that can’t be turned off. It was built in 1996.)
Last January was even more spectacular. Hotties in swim suits are now a mid-winter staple. Sure, the press gets into it.
The official nos. are 1.5 C rise since 1900. (Near as dammit.) For the whole country. From top to bottom, from valley to peak, town to forest, south (palm trees) to north (fir and rock, lichens..) Micro climate pockets have undergone spectacular changes.
So I hmmmed. No way you can keep 100 dollar a pound bison meat on your balcony or in your garden in the "winter."
Why in the world would you be putting a pig in the freezer? A pig wouldn't feed ONE family, much less two. And, Veggies? what about veggies? You can't live on meat, alone, even if you could put a whole year's worth of meat in a freezer. And, what about next year?
Shouldn't you be using that time to plant a garden? And, a fruit tree? That's much more efficient than feeding pigs.
Ol' "Doomer" (100 million is the max that America can support) Pimental's argument doesn't make any more sense than mine just did.
We're not going to replace ALL of the energy needs of the country with biomass. We, also, have Wave, Wind, Waste, Nuclear, and Solar. What we ARE going to do is replace some of our oil usage with biofuels. It will help out a lot in the next few years. Kind of like that pig is going to help out next month. :)
Great question -- and cuts to the heart of the modern dilemma. Why would anyone freeze meat to preserve it, unless they lived at the North Pole? Because we can, of course. It's easier than canning or smoking or salting -- and each of those technologies has adverse consequences. Here in the northwest, sun-drying the meat is out of the question.
And why would anyone eat meat anyway? I have become more or less convinced that Permaculture and its varients are the proper way to live in most of the temperate world -- a balance of animal and vegetable husbandry allows a reasonable population density without depleting anything. The real problem is factory farming, factory pigs, factory chickens -- the purpose of that mode of "agriculture" is to extract a profit and externalize the costs. Factory farming is mostly just a way of turning petroleum, fossil water and topsoil into food and money, and as we have seen over the last 40 years or so, it is becoming a disaster, because there is no closed loop to recycle nutrients, and especially because it uses more water than exists on the planet.
Simply because it may be a very healthy diet.
Though it is peripheral to your main point, I would just like to point out that this is false, and that there are documented instances of people living on meat alone for extended periods, and in fact thriving on it. In fact at least one entire society ate pretty much nothing but 'meat' (fish and seal) - the Inuit.
Maybe it's all those advertisements on TV with some guy talking to a bunch of children talking about how this new hulking SUV is "green" because it can run on E85 and is a hybrid? (The E85 negating the 2mpg gain from it being a hybrid?) Considering they pay a large portion of my salary, I'll refrain from naming names.
Or maybe it's because of those guys in Iowa, wanting to boost grain prices by pushing bills that force consumption of ethanol? (And our shrub who pushes the same thing?)
Or maybe, for some strange reason, it's because that the current American "consumer" (not citizen) actually believes all of this ethanol hype?
[sarcanol]On the other hand, if you were evil, you could view ethanol as a good thing. It drives up grain prices, which causes demand destruction in poor countries. Of course, those people would be starving anyhow, so it's all OK, right? [/sarcanol]
The sad thing about it all, is once you've sold people that corn-based ethanol is a crock of horse excrement, they start blathering about how cellulose-based ethanol will save us. Switchgrass... Wouldn't they do better with industrial hemp or something? Oh wait, Reefer Madness. Nevermind.
Silver BB's.... Along with a few plastic ones painted to look silver..
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
Horse excrement makes excellent manure, and is a good fuel source when dried.
Horse manure also makes good doomer anti ethanol posts on TOD. As long as doomers refuse to recognize the real world situation with ethanol, they will forever be in a funk as ethanol continues to expand. Ethanol is an effect of Peak Oil not the cause. Food prices are up due to inflationary monetary policy, Peak Oil and bad weather in the case of wheat which, by the way is up the 60 cent limit today on the CBOT. The ignorance of knowledgeable people who understand Peak Oil when it comes to ethanol is unbelievable. If ethanol is as bad as those who hate claim, it will fail. By the way that awful SUV burning E85 saves more fossil fuel than a Prius because it gets such poor mileage. In the Midwest burning E85 gives those whose income is based on corn at lot of psychological satisfaction even if it costs more. When you produce your own fuel and then read doomer porn it's very satisfying. The Iowa economy is booming and it is flooded with ethanol. I think that is the real bitch of those who hate ethanol. All Iowa is doing is using the ELP model so frequently held up as the ideal. We are economizing on transportation by consuming corn locally to produce ethanol. Isn't that what ELP is all about? And it works.
I'm happy for Iowa. My daughter lives there.
Ethanol for fuel still sucks. And if we stop the government subsidies, it will fail.