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DrumBeat: March 9, 2008
Posted by Leanan on March 9, 2008 - 10:11am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Monday, March 3, apparently began with a tremendous boost. Internet reports, attributed to Jed Mouawad and the New York Times, contained this passage:"Still, today's market climate is markedly different from the energy crises of the 1970s and 1980s. These were brought about by sudden interruptions in oil supplies, like the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Iranian revolution of 1979, or the outbreak of war between Iraq and Iran in 1980. Since 2000, oil prices have more than quadrupled as strong growth in demand from the United States and Asia outstripped the ability of oil producers to increase their output."
Hot dawg! The Times in general, and Mouawad in particular, indicate that this one is different. This time, the wolf really is at the door. I sent Mouawad a congratulatory e-mail and welcomed him to membership in the Hubbert Society. I reacted too quickly.
U.S. economy has less impact on oil prices now: Iran
TEHRAN (Reuters) - U.S. economic performance has less impact on oil prices than in the past because growth in demand has recently come mainly from countries like China and India, a senior Iranian oil official said on Sunday.Mohammad Ali Khatibi, speaking on the oil ministry's news Web site SHANA, said U.S. calls for a increase in crude oil production made before last week's OPEC meeting did not take into account "market realities."
Mexico's main crude oil ports closed, one reopens
MEXICO CITY, March 8 (Reuters) - Two of Mexico's three main crude oil ports were closed to shipping for a second successive day as bad weather in the Gulf of Mexico caused big sea swells, the government said on Saturday.The ports of Dos Bocas and Cayo Arcas were shut because of waves in the Gulf of up to 14 feet (4.2 meters), the transport ministry said.
Slumping dollar helps fuel surge in oil prices
This inventory build comes in a period when it's commonplace to see seasonal draw downs rather than an increase in gasoline stockpiles. Though we are a long way from the summer drive season, current inventories look sufficient and this stock increase is pressuring gas prices. Adding further weight to gasoline are the weak demand numbers that likely reflect both the normal cyclical weakness but also changing consumer behavior due to pricing.
Four significant and interconnected physical problems are likely to reach critical stages over the next two decades. They are:● Global warming and environmental degradation
● Depletion of key resources including oil, gas and potable water
● Pollution caused by use of fossil fuels with current technologies
● A world population that has grown beyond Earth’s carrying capacity (which exacerbates the first three problems)
What if the MSM simply can't cover humanity's self-destruction?
If those who counsel inaction and delay succeed, billions of humans will suffer unimaginable misery and chaos while most other species will simply go extinct.Maybe the best one line description of our current situation I have read is:
It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing.
Winds of change: Home turbines increasingly attractive, but zoning laws are still catching up
Charlene Godown heeded every bit of energy-saving advice on the market. She installed double-paned windows, energy-efficient appliances and those earth-friendly, corkscrew light bulbs in her Carbon County home. Still, her monthly electricity bill was hitting $500.Inspiration struck. Why not build a windmill for her 1,500-square-foot house on her 10 acres in Franklin Township?
Wave-power proposals alarm locals
US waters could supply up to 10 percent of electric needs but fast-track permits anger communities.
As world appetite grows, will oil hit $200 a barrel?
Energy expert David Greene and American Honda's John German point to Department of Energy data that in 1980 it took 9 percent of personal disposable income to drive 10,000 miles; in June 2007 it took about 4 percent to cover the same distance.Does that mean the cost of oil will continue to rise until consumers really feel the pain and do something about it?
This leads to another question: Will New York Times columnist John Tierney lose his $5,000 bet to Texas investment banker Matthew Simmons, who wagered that by 2010 the average price of a barrel of oil will reach $200, adjusted for inflation?
Crude oil prices may surge to $130 this year, says fund chief
LONDON: Crude oil may reach a record $130 a barrel this year because pension funds are investing more in commodities, said Pierre Andurand, the chief investment officer of BlueGold Capital Management, a hedge fund. The outlook for oil over the next five years is also “bullish” as producers find it hard to replenish reserves, and demand outpaces supply, London-based Andurand said.
Aramco to miss Khursaniyah deadline
Saudi Aramco's plans to boost production at its Khursaniyah oil field by 500,000 barrels a day (b/d) by April are unlikely to be met, according to contractors working on the project.Two senior executives working on different parts of the scheme say that only a limited increase in supplies will be possible by mid-April, with the full expansion delayed because of a shortage of skilled contractor labour.
Service giants split $1bn Manifa heavy oil drilling work
Global oil service giants France's Schlumberger and the US' Halliburton are to be awarded separate drilling deals worth up to $1bn in total by Saudi Aramco for the 900,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) Manifa heavy oil field.
Background Note: Saudi Arabia U.S. State Department
The Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs of the U.S. State Department recently updated its online "Background Note" for Saudi Arabia. These documents serve as an excellent country profile and include categories such as: people, history, government, political conditions, economy, foreign relations, U.S. relations, travel and business. Today we provide for your consideration the US-Saudi Arabian Relations portion of the newly revised "Background Note."
Sri Lanka CPC to boost cooking gas production; start retailing by June
LBO) – Sri Lanka's state-owned petroleum utility will enter the liquid petroleum gas (LPG) market by June using fuel dealerships, a top official said, while plans are underway to boost gas production.
Solar panels produce energy and lessons for schools
Texas schoolyards can get really hot when the sun beats down on those tree-starved fields.Now, thanks to a donation by TXU Energy, schools can put that solar heat to a better use. The retail electricity unit of Energy Future Holdings is donating solar panels to several Texas schools to accompany a new energy curriculum.
New York: Toward a green tomorrow
Many experts predict that the world will be grappling with a serious energy crisis within the next 50 years unless society takes steps now to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The same goes for global warming. While 50 years may seem too far away to worry about now, Gov. Eliot Spitzer is right to make renewable energy a priority, rather than pass the problem off on future generations of New Yorkers.
Harsh truth behind oil at $105 a barrel
Who would have believed that the world could shoulder an oil price that reached a record high in New York last week of $105 a barrel? The soaraway price of black gold has prompted apocalyptic visions of a planet that will soon run out of oil, with dire consequences for mankind. While many will find that prognosis unnecessarily alarmist, even serious economic commentators are talking about 'peak oil'.According to this theory, we have reached the point of no return: demand is so strong that supply cannot hope to keep up. High oil prices are something we are going to have to live with for the foreseeable future.
Could Arctic ice melt spawn new kind of cold war?
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With oil above $100 a barrel and Arctic ice melting faster than ever, some of the world's most powerful countries -- including the United States and Russia -- are looking north to a possible energy bonanza.This prospective scramble for buried Arctic mineral wealth made more accessible by freshly melted seas could bring on a completely different kind of cold war, a scholar and former Coast Guard officer says.
OPEC does U.S. favor, indirectly
As the price for a barrel of oil soars to new records, OPEC sure doesn’t seem like our friend.But that raises the question of what friends are for. Sometimes friends tell us things we don’t want to hear — and OPEC sure gave the U.S. an earful last week.
Require flex fuel to stop OPEC's hold
A little-known section of the Energy Security Act of 2007 contained a provision that would require within five years all new vehicles sold (foreign and domestic) in the United States be capable of running on alcohol fuels (a k a "flex fuel") as well as gasoline. It costs, on average, about $100 to make a car flex-fuel capable. The most common flex fuel available today is ethanol, or E85, but flex-fuel cars can run on any alcohol-based fuel such as methanol or butanol and, of course, on gasoline.
Alaska plays hardball with oil companies
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is challenging some of the world's biggest oil companies, and like Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, she's not backing down.Palin threatened to evict Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's biggest oil company, and partners BP, Chevron and ConocoPhillips from a state-owned gas field, winning their promise to increase Alaska's natural gas output 17 percent. She raised taxes on oil profits by $1.5 billion a year and rejected industry ownership of a $25 billion pipeline.
Drilling for oil to start in Falkland Islands
The inhabitants of the Falkland Islands are preparing for a South Atlantic oil rush which they hope will make them among the richest people in the world.After 10 years of frustrating delays since oil fields containing up to 60 billion barrels of "black gold" were discovered off the islands, oil companies are planning to start drilling within the next 12 months.
Oil prices have Gulf drillers going deeper
Though industry leaders say oil prices have stoked interest in Gulf drilling, the number of rigs actively working in the Gulf has actually declined in the past year. As of Friday, 60 rigs were working in the Gulf, down from 87 one year ago."The Gulf (rig count) is kind of a head-scratcher," said Gene Shiels, assistant director of investor relations at Baker Hughes, the Houston firm that has conducted industrywide rig counts since 1944.
Russia’s oil and gas giant Gazprom may fund 2012 Olympics
If a deal is struck it will come at a time when diplomatic ties between Britain and Russia hang in the balance. Gordon Brown is hoping that relations will improve following the election of Dmitry Medvedev as Russia’s new president.
How ConocoPhillips kept cat in the bag
Last month, ConocoPhillips revealed plans to build a new technology center and corporate learning center on the 432-acre former StorageTek campus in Louisville it purchased from Sun Microsystems for $58.5 million. The announcement culminated a highly secretive process in which fewer than a half-dozen people knew the company's intentions."Colorado has been associated with oil, but is very pro new energy," said Mary Manning, general manager for global real estate and facilities service for ConocoPhillips. "We want to be a leader in that area. It was a great fit."
Although ConocoPhillips has yet to announce details concerning its final plans for the site, we know they're making a major commitment to find practical ways to produce renewable energy, increase energy-efficiency and integrate new energy technologies. They are currently the nation's third-largest oil company and continue seeking ways to make liquid fuels from environmentally sound renewable sources. They also want to discover practical ways to convert coal, our nation's most abundant energy resource, into a clean-burning hydrogen fuel.
In China's growth, oil company looking for oil, gas and profits
Today, Ingriselli, 53, is again trying to strike oil and gas deals in the world's most populous nation. Ingriselli is president and chief executive of Pacific Asia Petroleum Inc., a company he started with two partners in 2005.He has recruited a cadre of 10 former Texaco executives and managers to join him in a quest to turn China's seemingly insatiable demand for energy into shareholder wealth.
Top Tire Makers Announce Further Price Increases
TOKYO, Japan/PARIS, France – In February the world’s two biggest tire makers Michelin and Bridgestone pointed to further raw material prices increases hitting the market. French tire giant Michelin kicked off a fresh round of price rises in Europe, passing on a spike in raw material prices including natural rubber, synthetic rubber, steel and oil.
Folding Bike Pricing Increasing Friday
Due to the falling dollar and rising fuel costs, pricing on all folding bikes has gone up substantially. On some models, the increase is @ 30%, far more than I could ever hope to absorb. Unfortunately, that means prices are going up across the board; I'm in the process of making the changes now.
When I was in college, the stereotype of these plasma centers was that it was all junkies who sold their blood to get their next fix. Seems apropos.
The Crash is past, Comes now Inflation
So, essentially, what we’ve done over the past 30 years of deregulating banking and finance is create incentives for speculating and arbitrage, while creating disincentives for actual investment of capital in the real economy. We have shifted from industrial capitalism to financial capitalism. Rather than building a new economy of alternative energies and green technologies, Wall Street, U.S. elites, and the oilarchies have dug in to defend what they have. They have dug in to defend the past.
Texas poised to become regional hub for ethanol
...Texas is poised to emerge as a key regional hub for ethanol production — now centered in the corn-rich Midwest — as U.S. demand rises for the renewable fuel.But even the companies behind the projects acknowledge this isn't the best time to be opening new corn ethanol plants.
U.S. raises bar on Energy Star label
WASHINGTON — The Energy Department is beefing up standards for washing machines sold with the Energy Star label, which identifies less-energy hungry appliances.The department said Friday the change is projected to save $92.4 million on water and utility bills in the first year, based on a projection that 1.9 million washers will be sold under the new Energy Star requirements beginning July 1, 2009.
TOP 10: Ways to deal with $4-a-gallon gasoline
10. Take second job -- have paycheck deposited directly with oil companies.9. Get interest-free credit card -- a siphon hose.
8. Run red lights so you don't waste gas idling in traffic.
Who would have believed that the world could shoulder an oil price that reached a record high in New York last week of $105 a barrel?
I think those shoulders are sagging a bit.
Those shoulders are not only sagging, those shoulders may be about to collapse. J.P. Morgan stated yesterday that Banks face "systemic margin call," $325 billion hit. This was discussed yesterday over at The Automatic Earth's March 8th Debt Rattle.
Put very simply, last week we saw 6 publicly visible margin calls. In at least 2 of those margin calls, companies were destroyed inside 24 hours. Peloton Funds ($3 billion hedge fund) and Focus Capital ($1 billion hedge fund) ceased to exist last week after margin calls. There are at least 4 other institutions who are staring bankruptcy in the face, ranging from Thornburg Mortgage ($21.7 billion) to Jefferson County, Alabama (unknown size but indications are perhaps $1-$2 billion).
J.P. Morgan above indicates that we are of the verge of a systemic margin call. The margin calls last week demonstrated that financial instruments sold right now, last week, were delivering between 10%-12% of their original booked value. In order to raise $325 billion in capital to cover themselves, the banks will likely have to call in over $3 trillion in loans.
This means your home loan may be called in if you are underwater (and large numbers are) even if you are a good credit risk, pay on time, and still have a job. The banks need capitalization, right now, if J.P. Morgan is correct. Liquidity from the Fed does not help here. They need capital assets to act as collateral in order to borrow from the Fed in the first place and right now they don't have sufficient collateral.
If J.P. Morgan is correct, those shoulders are about to collapse sometime very soon, Robert, perhaps within the next few months. I certainly hope that J.P. Morgan is very wrong or we stand on the verge of a depression that could make the 1930s look like a walk in the park. On this matter I still agree with Westexas - the credit bubble itself was doomed to burst one way or another but I firmly believe that the soaring costs of energy acted as the pinprick that started the unwinding of the largest credit bubble in human history.
isn't it possible that eventually thousands of empty McMansions will be bought for pennies on the dollar by someone with the means. This person will then go about turning the land back into farm land by hiring people (perhaps only paying them in food, which will be enough at that point, other employment being unavailable) to take the houses away, perhaps without machines, oil being also unavailable. These people will then stay and work the land they cleared and the cycle back to medieval serfdom is completed. I was just reading about the "contadini" (work someone else's land in return for half of the yield) in Italy, basically this sytem lasted for hundreds of years up until WW2. It seems viable in that no commuting costs are incurred-- the contadini lived on the land they worked.
isn't it possible that eventually thousands of empty McMansions will be bought for pennies on the dollar by someone with the means.
Yes, but there are 'external costs' that are not controllable.
This person will then go about turning the land back into farm land by hiring people
Here is a partial list of external costs:
Taxes (So you are going to take something of value (a building) then DEVALUING via destruction?
Permits for destruction/waste disposal/even the workers
The locations where the farm topsoil was mostly removed and sold off
Oh, and the population that needs housing - just because a McMansion becomes empty does not remove the housing demand that home used to satisfy.
The home builders treated the topsoil on the lot as a salable asset. You find a sprinkle of dirt under what came with the sod. The destruction of such a place is quite endothermic ... unless you throw a match.
The McMansions are a one way investment and a very poor one. Squatters, salvagers, vandalism, and fires are their lot. Shouldn't be all that long before you'll see folks moving into a title free house and the neighbors welcoming them as long as they get heat, lights, and keep the place up a bit. Eric's assessment of this is dead on.
Well, they are growing grass, and many of those lots are fenced in. A garage could work as a barn/stable with relatively minor modifications. That's a pretty good scenario for small-scale livestock production. Fruit trees can also be planted - a little bit of compost & organic matter right in the planting hole will go a long ways. Once there is a good population of livestock in the area, composting can go into high gear, and then the topsoil built up to turn some of those lawns into productive gardens.
Do you have any idea how useless modern lawns are for growing anything other than that monoculture green carpet? Rebuilding a real soil system of any depth takes years. It's one reason I use raised beds instead of trying to til nearly dead lawn with only an inch or two of soil under it anyway.
Likewise with planting fruit trees. Most of my fruit trees are a few years away yet from providing any serious harvest though the orange tree may give me a few oranges this year.
This is not something that can be done instantly, overnight or via mail order and a Fedex shipment for tens of millions of people. Then there is the problem of learning your local environment, its pests, its growing season(s) and the oddities thereof.
It would all be likely to happen over a long time-scale and very informally - deteriorating suburbs, dereliction and arson, and any would-be developer could simply arrange another 'accidental' fire to get rid of the remains of houses in the areas he was interested in, then buy the land as wasteland.
I doubt that they would or could go to the expense of bringing in topsoil, just work around the houses, or maybe rake the existing topsoil a bit thinner.
In reality though, I can't see the land even being used as farmland in the States, they would just be abandoned.
The only reason agricultural land is in relatively short supply in the States is because of high meat consumption and subsidies for the ethanol scam.
The money in the scenario drawn would not allow for either, so no development of waste land would likely take place as agricultural land would not be in short supply absent these.
It's a different matter in Europe with land in much shorter supply, but then again suburbs there are less extensive.
Is good land really so readily available? With fertilizer and herbicide inputs at risk maybe more land will be needed to feed people.
A brilliant summary. But not a realistic one. YOU know what is happening, ugly things, indeed. But you forget, that your central bank, your government and the whole elite in the US ALSO KNOW THIS! Do you really think, that those people/institutions act like sheep? Doing nothing?
- they will sacrifice the $
- they will dump interest rates towards 0%
- they will just forbid the banks to call in loans
- they will pump in massive amounts of money into the system
- there will be coordinated action of all important central banks in the world towards lowering interest rates, regardless of inflation. Add to this international coordinated huge money inflows.
Those steps are already underway, did you notice that? And you know what? These steps are allright.
i noticed the ECB did NOT lower rates last week & at least for now to see central banks not together is greyzone/largi's scenario probably here.
As interest rates near zero other factors come into play...Beyond this point lay dragons...
'In monetary economics, a liquidity trap occurs when the economy is stagnant, the nominal interest rate is close or equal to zero, and the monetary authority is unable to stimulate the economy with traditional monetary policy tools. In this kind of situation, people do not expect high returns on physical or financial investments, so they keep assets in short-term cash bank accounts or hoards rather than making long-term investments. This makes the recession even more severe, and can contribute to deflation.'
'The monetary authority can increase the overall quantity of money available to the economy, but traditional monetary policy tools do not inject new money directly into the economy. Rather, the new liquidity created must be injected into the real economy by way of financial intermediaries such as banks. In a liquidity trap environment, banks are unwilling to lend, so the central bank's newly-created liquidity is trapped behind unwilling lenders.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap
The rumour is that a giant taxpayer funded bailout (the first of many) is being worked on right now. The key is to make it look like it is helping the sheeple while actually taking their money (through increased government spending) and transferring it directly to the undercapitalized banking sector. The fly in the ointment is that the USA banking sector appears to have zero interest in prudent business operations, so the taxpayer money will likely be pissed away as fast as possible. IMHO, the main problem which is not being addressed is that the shareholders of North American financial institutions have little or no power to control the reckless and self serving actions of upper management and the board. This isn't capitalism at all-the owners of these companies are just chickens to be plucked-call it an "insider business model".
They will forbid banks to call in loans? When that same government is the one that requires them to have some tiny amount of capital and the only way to raise that capital now is to make margin calls?
You live in an odd world, sir. Let's hope the real world is as odd as yours.
"This means your home loan may be called in if you are underwater (and large numbers are) even if you are a good credit risk, pay on time, and still have a job."
I would think there are state laws against banks being able to recall mortgages at any time for any reason.
You would be mistaken. Your house is the collateral for the loan. If the value of your collateral falls below the value of the loan, the lender can demand that you put up additional collateral to match the value of the loan. This is what a margin call really is.
If you don't understand the potential severity of this, please review one of the triggers of the 1929 crash - margin calls, against real estate, no less.
If the lenders push too hard, they should not be surprised if at some point they discover that some people start pushing back. Foreclosing on people who have failed to make their payments is one thing - everyone understands that that might be tragic, but fair. Foreclosing on people that have kept current on their payments is another matter all together, and is sure to provoke not just universal outrage, but popular wrath.
It seems as if the banks would only be hurting themselves by doing that. They would be flooding the market with foreclosed homes when there is already an oversupply, and would get pennies on the dollar. How about car loans? A car loses 20+% in market value as soon as it's driven off the lot.
And I'm sure many consumer protection laws have been enacted since 1929.
Greyzone, you are incorrect. In the area of residential mortgages the lender has recourse only upon missed payments. The value of the home is irrelevant. Additionally, in many states, including California, mortgages foe residential RE are non-recourse; meaning the lender can do no more than take the property back.
Of course, calling in those home loans won't get any bank cash within the seventy-two hours Ilargi says they have. There is another link to an article at today's Automatic earth which mentions that ADM has margin calls of as much as $100 million on any given day.
British Administration to Set New Standards in Incompetence
On conservation:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/utilitie...
Nice one!
On Making Sure we Only Buy the LNG Terminals We Need:
And:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_...
Many billions are being spent on these terminals, with no serious thought being given to where the gas for them will come from.
On Safeguarding Nuclear Waste:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/green-living/dirty-bomb-threat-...
OK, I support nuclear power, but only on the assumption that the people running it act in a sane manner.
My breakfast is spoilt by these three gems.
British Administration to Set New Standards in Incompetence
I am afraid that the Brits will have great difficulty in exceeding the all time records set by GWB & the neocons :-(
It would be better if they did not even try,
Best Hopes for Competence,
Alan
They usually miss their targets, but I think they may have better luck this time. :-(
At least they didn't actually build an LNG terminal on an island, as the name would suggest. Horse before the cart time. Although they have reopened an oil burning plant there, to supply 3% of UK electricity...
OK, I support nuclear power, but only on the assumption that the people running it act in a sane manner.
My breakfast is spoilt by these three gems.
Better just go back to not learning about the various failure modes of fission - otherwise you'll never eat again.
They dont even have to fail. Another few years, and the x000's of tonnes of glowing packaging, gloves, and 'moppings up' will start floating in the Atlantic at Drigg, Cumbria - next stop Blackpool/Belfast...
A lot of that secondary waste is from medicine. Are you advocating banning that?
As for the previous poster's point, that is what the containment vessel is for, and it did it's job at Three Mile Island.
Chernobyl had no containment vessel at all.
Of course like everything else, for instance the chemical industry, the nuclear industry needs proper administration and regulation, but we don't ban the chemical industry and should not ban the nuclear industry.
In retrospect it now seems clear that immense and possibly irreversible damage has already been caused to the climate by CO2 emissions, and perhaps so-called 'green' attitudes in their opposition to nuclear power have done more damage and contributed more to CO2 emissions than all the SUV owners put together.
That is maybe understandable for that time, but now seems like willful folly, usually supported by exaggerated expectations for what is currently possible from renewables.
If we are to have any hope of stopping climate change and providing power we need to use everything we have.
Risk is always relative, and the risks of famine and global warming are so great that any residual risk from nuclear power pales into insignificance, aside from the huge numbers of excess deaths the coal industry has already caused over the last 30 years, as that was in fact the practical fall-back in the absence of nuclear power.
The other force preventing the adoption of nuclear power was high interest rates in the 70's, and in the States this looks set to be replicated, so in practise it appears that little or no nuclear build will happen there, however desperately it is needed.
IMO those who feel that this is a good thing have simply not taken on board the great danger and deadly consequences of present circumstances.
Transit Porn
The Good (in French, two short films about the Reunion Island Tram-Train, pop. 780,000 for entire island)
http://www.tramtrain.fr/rubrique.php?id_rubrique=52
and the Bad (GWB speaking at the WIREC conference, language unspecified, I slept late that day @ the conference)
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/03/print/20080305.html
Audio and Video to the right.
Best Hopes for more Good Transit "Porn",
Alan
I would recommend the second Reunion Tram-Train video for those that assume dense urban populations are required for Urban Rail service. They show the current and "Urbanisation Future" buildings.
Several of the stops are quite small towns.
Peak/Rush hour service will be every 5 minutes with service at other times every 15 to 20 minutes and freight trains at night.
Best Hopes for Widespread Urban Rail,
Alan
Thanks for the reference, Alan. Very interesting system they have planned for La Réunion. The plan is the fullest realization I have seen of Peter Calthorpe's Pedestrian Pocket model. (See also the Pedestrian Pocket diagrams on this page under "Major Design Issues")
Also interesting is the discussion of the reasons for constructing this €1.2 billion route through 41 kilometers of mountainous terrain similar to Hawaii. One of the reasons is "la flambée des prix du pétrole." That translates as "the blaze of oil prices," but it seems more apt in the original French.
Two shows that will be of interest to TOD readers coming to the National Geographic Channel. The first one is tonight and the one on oil is Wednesday night.
Aftermath: Population Zero
This is NOT the “Life After People” episode that was shown on the History Channel and on the Australian Broadcasting Network, and was rebroadcast on the History Channel just last night. This show deals with the problem of nuclear power plants left unattended. It is in one of the video trailers found on the link above.
Then on Wednesday night:
Explorer: Alaska's Last Oil
There are no video trailers for this show. Well, at least none that I could find.
Ron Patterson
Thanks for the heads up Ron. I really enjoyed "Life After People." I will set these up to record as well - through the magic of my Slingbox.
This show deals with the problem of nuclear power plants left unattended.
One of my fears(just one of them) is that we WILL build lots more nuc plants, and that in 30 years all the expertise needed to run/decommission them is gone.
Let's say the Grain/food problems do hit severly, No oil left for the normal functioning of society as we now have it. Fed Gov. not even answering the phones as JHK says.
Who will dismantle the plants? If the picture painted above has a 1 in 10 chance, how lucky do we(ie us/our children/grandchildren) feel living near or downstream from one?
I say this while watching my 3year old granddaughter playing on the floor.
I understand your fears, but you are postulating a situation so dire that the society is unlikely to be able to feed itself anyway, and if history is any guide then warfare would be endemic.
It would be ironic if we rejected an alternative which might help to prevent that collapse for fear of the comparatively small extra risk that we would incur in the event you are talking about.
In other words, cheer up! You and yours would likely be already dead before you encountered the danger you mention.
More directly, in an emergency the reactor building itself would not be a high risk - you basically don't go in there and leave it alone.
The used fuel you would have to put into water tanks, I believe they normally leave it there for around 20 years before putting it into dry cask storage, and again leaving it alone.
In the circumstances you are talking about you might get some leakage, above any level we would tolerate now, but it would still be pretty far removed from something which would automatically annihilate everything in the area.
I would worry about starvation and nuclear war a lot more than leaks from abandoned reactors.
A good read about this sort of issue is Larry Niven and Pournelle's 'Lucifer's Hammer', which is set in a world devastated by the impact of a comet.
In this work a lucky few are near enough to a nuclear reactor that they can get the energy to re