 | $100 a barrel: Going, Going.... | The Oil Drum | Update on S. 2821 and Bartlett's Similar House Legislation (no H.R. number yet as I can tell) |  |
DrumBeat: May 7, 2008
Posted by Leanan on May 7, 2008 - 9:08am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil surges to new highs, dealers focus on diesel
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose 1.4 percent on Wednesday, extending further into record territory amid intensifying worries over tight world supplies of diesel fuel.U.S. crude leapt $1.69 to settle at $123.53 a barrel, before hitting an all-time peak of $123.89. London Brent rose $2.01 to $122.32.
Crude prices have doubled in a year and risen sixfold since 2002 on rising demand from China and other developing countries, adding pressure to economies already hard hit by a housing and credit crunch.
U.S. President George W. Bush will ask the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production when he visits Saudi Arabia next week, a senior White House official said, adding to a slew of recent calls from consumer nations for more oil from the cartel.
Big Oil Strike in Brazil has Tongues Wagging, but We Continue Towards Peak Oil
Since the 1980's, the world has discovered every year less oil than it has consumed, with the difference having been enlarged and reaching such an outrageous level in recent years that almost no-one wants to think about it. In recent years, despite a considerable increase in exploratory activity and the application of the most up-to-date quadra-dimensional seismic technology, annual discoveries amounted to between 4 and 6 times less than what was being consumed at the same time from known and proven reserves. That is, in the words of the geologist Mariano Marzo, we are pawning our grandmother's jewels in order to throw the proceeds away.
Drive out of poverty with a car
A good, reliable automobile can make the difference in getting up from the bottom, and some groups want to give a leg up....Despite car-ownership costs, including insurance, repairs and fuel, the majority of even the poorest Americans own cars, according to U.S. Census data - and for good reason. In this country, life without one can be difficult at best and unmanageable at worst.
Even cities with solid public transportation networks are set up to do one thing well: move people in and out of central business districts. "It takes a long time if you aren't doing exactly that," said Margy Waller, executive director of the policy research group Mobility Agenda.
And these days, she pointed out, the best jobs usually aren't in the center of the city.
Exxon lifts force majeure on Nigeria oil exports
LONDON/LAGOS (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil has lifted a force majeure on its crude oil exports from Nigeria, traders said on Wednesday.All of Exxon's oil production in Nigeria, which averaged 800,000 barrels per day last year, were disrupted by a union workers' strike late in April. Output has since resumed.
Congress takes on gasoline prices
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gas prices are expected to keep up their record rise this spring, soaring well past $4 a gallon in some areas. Now Congress wants to know what to do about it.
OPEC to earn over US$1-trillion on oil - Net earnings to leap 57% on record prices
WASHINGTON -- Thanks to record crude oil prices, OPEC members will likely earn over US$1-trillion this year from oil exports, according to the U.S. government's top energy forecasting agency.Net oil export earnings from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are forecast to skyrocket 57% from last year's US$674-billion to US$1.06-trillion this year and then decline to US$990-billion in 2009 after an expected contraction in oil prices, the Energy Information Administration said in its new forecast.
Russia and Vietnam oil firms win Siberian fields
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A consortium of Russian and Vietnamese state oil firms, ZarubezhNeft and PetroVietnam, has won a tender to develop four oil blocks in West Siberia, sources in the Russian firm and regional government said on Wednesday.
Moscow is flush with oil money. But the new President Dmitry Medvedev needs to do more than just redistribute it to bring his nation back to fiscal health.
Russia clears plan to boost Kazakh oil transit
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Wednesday it had lifted its opposition to a plan to double the capacity of a Kazakh transit oil pipeline in a move to allow Chevron and other energy majors to boost exports via its territory.
France launches international wing of nuclear agency
PARIS (Reuters) - The French cabinet passed a decree on Wednesday allowing the country's Atomic Energy Commission to promote French nuclear expertise and safety standards globally.The Commission's new international division will help other countries build nuclear power stations safely and without harming the environment, while ensuring the technology is not used for weapons, the government said in a statement.
Sask. energy minister warms to nuke plant idea
Saskatchewan Energy Minister Bill Boyd says he welcomes the possibility of his uranium-rich province, and not Alberta, being home to Western Canada's first nuclear power plant.
OTTAWA – Canada could be barred from international carbon trading if a United Nations probe finds it broke Kyoto Protocol rules for greenhouse-gas reporting.
Gas Prices Expected to Peak in June
Analysts’ forecasts for the price of gasoline over the next few years run as high as $7 a gallon.
Rising cost of food is wreaking havoc on Central America
Much of Latin America has benefited from soaring global prices for agricultural commodities and petroleum. Venezuela and Mexico are flush with oil profits. Good times are rolling for soybean farmers in Argentina and Brazil.But in Central America, a major importer of grain and oil, the price increases are wreaking havoc on already fragile economies. The region's presidents are slated to gather here today for an emergency summit on food security. Aid agencies are warning of rising social tensions in countries where a typical day's wages won't buy a gallon of gas and food inflation is breaking family budgets.
A minor inconvenience for Americans
Despite the fact that many countries still have most of their population in agriculture, they have such low farm productivity that they import much of their food supply. With basic foods making up more than half the expenditures of families in poorer countries, the doubling of prices puts a substantial strain on the incomes of the world's poorest. Thus the food riots in Haiti, Somalia and Yemen.But the problem in these societies is not expensive food per se; it is their failure to experience the economic growth that would raise incomes and make food prices unimportant. Shipping subsidized food to these countries will not solve that long-term problem.
Liberalizing Food Trade to Death
Billions of people are struggling to afford food because of the huge disparities and inequalities that have been exacerbated by the current economic system -- neo-liberal globalization. Over the last 30 years, almost all states across the world have adopted neo-liberal economic policies. Neo-liberal policies have favored giant corporations' interests over those of people and have enabled a handful of companies to gain a virtual monopoly over the human food chain and make massive profits. The poor, however, have suffered consequences of neo-liberal policies: if people can't afford the prices these monopolistic companies charge, they don't get food.
Romania: Farmland prices set to triple due to rising food prices
The soaring prices of agricultural products in recent months have raised investors' interest in cultivating grain on ever-larger areas, which is driving up the price of agricultural land.At present, the average price per one hectare of agricultural land stands at 1,500 euros and players in the field say this is going to triple in the next three years.
Automakers are working on a new generation of ultra-tiny cars. And some of them could make it to the U.S.
APTA asking N.B. to cut tax on diesel by 10 cents
DIEPPE, N.B. -- The executive director of the Atlantic Provinces Trucking Association is calling on the provincial government to provide relief from rising fuel costs by trimming tax on diesel by at least a dime a litre.
Public water, privately bottled profits
On April 7, more than 1,500 villagers defied a police cordon and marched to Coca-Cola's bottling plant in Mehdiganj village, Varanasi, in Uttar Pradesh state, demanding that the company immediately shut down its bottling plant. In January, the New Delhi-based Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) advised Coca-Cola to shut a bottling plant in the drought-stricken state of Rajasthan.
Congress considers the steel penny
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Further evidence that times are tough: It now costs more than a penny to make a penny. And the cost of a nickel is more than 7 1/2 cents.Surging prices for copper, zinc and nickel have some in Congress trying to bring back the steel-made pennies of World War II, and maybe using steel for nickels, as well.
Kasane imposes fuel ban on Zimbabweans
VICTORIA FALLS: Zimbabwean fuel dealers in Victoria Falls are in a quandary after Botswana immigration officials at Kasane Border Post banned the cross-border traders from importing fuel from Botswana last week.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn: Energy - Near-term Relief, Long-term Security
The U.S. is now transitioning from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader-based energy supply that will include increased solar, wind, biofuel, nuclear, coal conversion and other sources. We need all of this supply. Both government and private industry are spending billions of dollars annually to promote this change, and speed it along.But for the next decades, oil, gas and coal will remain the dominant source of energy generation. The free market could likely provide those supplies through new exploration-but the federal government has prevented that from happening.
"We get this question all the time," said Bernie Arseneau, Minnesota's top traffic engineer with the Department of Transportation. "Current law says speed limits should be safe and reasonable. Lower speeds don't necessarily equate to safer speeds."According to Arseneau, research indicates that when the government sets a speed lower than the reasonable speed the road was designed to handle, a "small percentage obeys the limit no matter what. The rest drive what they feel is comfortable."
In other words, a large percentage of people ignore the artificially low speed limits. The end result of that is a minor improvement in fuel conservation and a higher risk of crashes.
Myanmar lifts fuel import ban after storm
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Myanmar's military government has lifted a ban on private companies importing fuel to try to ease a chronic energy shortage in the wake of Cyclone Nargis, a Yangon-based diplomat said on Wednesday.
Uganda: Long Queues As Fuel Shortage Persists
THE fuel shortage in Kampala and other parts of the country has persisted for a second week, leaving several filling stations dry. There were long queues of motorists at many of the city filling stations yesterday.East Africa is facing an acute shortage because a big ship, carrying diesel, broke down at the high sea and had to be sent back to the Gulf for repair.
Petrobras Hiring 14,000 Geologists, Oil Rig Workers
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state- controlled oil company, plans to add 14,000 engineers, geologists and drillers within three years as it develops the biggest crude discovery in the Western Hemisphere since 1976.Petrobras, as the company is known, plans to expand its workforce 23 percent to about 74,000, surpassing Chevron Corp., the second-largest U.S. oil producer. The hiring binge is part of a $112.7 billion expansion that may allow Brazil to overtake the output of all OPEC members except Saudi Arabia.
Pemex Says Fire Shuts Refinery Unit, Injures Workers
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, said a leak and fire at its refinery in Guanajuato state forced the shut down of a lubricant-making unit and injured two workers.
OTC: Technology key to Mexico's future oil production
With subsalt plays and poor recovery efficiency for existing fields, Mexico needs improved oil recovery and innovative technology to help extend the productive life of its reservoirs, Ley stressed. Operators are finding Mexico's fractured reservoirs challenging because they are difficult to characterize, model, and simulate. "We need a new generation of reservoir simulators," he said.
Selectboard cuts Peak Oil Task Force
BRATTLEBORO -- After thanking the Peak Oil Task Force for a job well done, the Selectboard disbanded the group with the caveat it might call on the members to pursue mitigation strategies to reduce the town's dependence on fossil fuels and cut down on its production of greenhouse gases.
Michael J. Economides - Oil at $120: Here's Why
I have no aversion to wind or solar. I love the sun, I am Greek. But they are eminently unreliable and, even in their best case, without government subsidies, they make $200 to $2000 oil still attractive. It is that simple....There are no alternatives to fossil fuels for decades to come and the transition will be long and painful. We will continue to be a fossil-fuel dependent economy for the foreseeable future. To boot, the US imports now almost 70 percent of 21 million barrels per day of oil demand. Hugo Chavez, Vladimir Putin and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad have noticed.
Newt Gingrich - My Plea to Republicans: It's Time for Real Change to Avoid Real Disaster
...Here are nine acts of real change that would begin to rebuild the American people's confidence that Republicans share their values, understand their worries, and are prepared to act instead of just talk. The Republicans in Congress could get a start on all nine this week if they had the will to do so.1. Repeal the gas tax for the summer, and pay for the repeal by cutting domestic discretionary spending so that the transportation infrastructure trust fund would not be hurt. At a time when, according to The Hill newspaper, Senator Clinton is asking for $2.3billion in earmarks, it should be possible for Republicans to establish a "government spending versus your pocketbook" fight over cutting the gas tax that would resonate with most Americans. Lower taxes and less government spending should be a battle cry most taxpayers and all conservatives could rally behind.2. Redirect the oil being put into the national petroleum reserve onto the open market. That oil would lower the price of gasoline an extra 5 to 6 cents per gallon, and its sale would lower the deficit.
3. Introduce a "more energy at lower cost with less environmental damage and greater national security bill" as a replacement for the Warner-Lieberman "tax and trade" bill which is coming to the floor of the Senate in the next few weeks (see my newsletter next week for an outline of a solid pro-economy, pro-national security, pro-environment energy bill). When the American people realize how much the current energy prices are actually a "politicians' energy crisis" they will demand real change in our policies.
The good news is that prices for oil and gasoline are made on the margins — if America cuts its oil use by 10% or even 5%, that should send the price lower ... maybe a lot lower.After all, 5% of the 20.6 million barrels we use every day is about 1 million barrels per day. That's more than the current spare capacity on the global market.
So let me tell you what we need to do to get there — and I'll start by saying you aren't going to like it.
Disruptions In Oil Supply May Extend Price Rise
"May is the lowest-demand month of the year, so it's really important that we see some buildup of stocks ahead of the summer," said Adam Robinson, an oil analyst at Lehman Brothers. "And here you have a couple of factors chipping away at that seasonal cushion."
Kyrgyzstan Imposes Another Limit on Power Supply to Population
Bishkek: Another limit has been imposed on the supply of electricity to the population in Kyrgyzstan, says a press release circulated today by the Severelektro [North Electricity] company, which is engaged in power supply to the northern districts of Kyrgyzstan.From now on, the supply of electricity to the houses and flats of residents living in population centres in Chuy and Talas regions as well as in the Kyrgyz capital will be suspended not only from midnight to 0600 hours in the morning but also from 1300 to 1800 hours local time.
School district's conservation efforts paying off after rate hike
The Juneau School District is estimating that efforts it took to conserve energy before last month's avalanches caused electric rates to rise sharply could save between $60,000 to $100,000 during the city's energy crisis....Means said the changes the district enacted last year were simple, such as using less light for school spaces that aren't in use.
NASA scientist to receive Scripps' Nierenberg Prize
LA JOLLA: James E. Hansen, a NASA scientist who says the Bush administration attempted to censor his warnings about the perils of global warming, will be honored tomorrow night at 7 at the Forum Theater of the La Jolla Playhouse at the University of California San Diego.The Scripps Institution of Oceanography will give Hansen its 2008 Nierenberg Prize for Science in the Public Interest. Hansen will receive a bronze medal and a $25,000 award.
Analyst sees oil surging to $200
Jim Burkhard, global oil group managing director for Boston-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said his firm released a "break point scenario" (one of three predictions based on events) in late April that envisioned oil at $150 US."There are many similarities with what we're seeing today," he said.
"In an environment with little spare capacity, with sluggish oil supply growth, momentum builds toward ever higher oil prices."
Survey shows rise in U.S. honey bee deaths
SAN FRANCISCO - A survey of bee health released Tuesday revealed a grim picture, with 36.1 percent of the nation's commercially managed hives lost since last year.Last year's survey commissioned by the Apiary Inspectors of America found losses of about 32 percent.
Peak oil is a concept crated by Luddites and fear-mongers who invariably want to change everyone’s behavior to what they consider a more moral and virtuous pattern. Me, I think there is nothing more beautiful than a soccer mom loading her kids into a big safe SUV and driving around town in order to maximize her choices in food, clothing, education and work. I’ll take freedom and choice over living in a cave any day. So the BS about peak oil is that it is a straw man—some absurd concept that does not really prove any valid point.
The Rising Price Of Gas: Will Old Tech Habits Last?
So if folks will be using their cars less often, and commuting less time per use on average, why would they want to load them up with lots of electronics gadgets? Couple that with a decreased per capita automobile statistic going forward, and I think you'll understand the underpinnings of my opinion. To be clear, I remain highly optimistic about the under-hood and within-chassis stuff...monitoring and control of the engine, brake system, clutch and transmission...along with the incremental technology needed to service the inevitable transition to hybrid and alternative fuel-based vehicles. But all the cockpit toys? Label me highly skeptical.
Back to the future with fuel prices?
I don’t know of anyone who still cans peaches, and very few who tend a vegetable garden.And do they still build fruit cellars in new houses?
Yet according to Lance Meredith, the co-ordinator of the Chatham-Kent Oil Age Planning Group, most Canadians will be forced to turn to their own vegetable gardens and to more “local food” in the not-too-distant future, as high fuel prices make it more costly to import food from great distances.
Fiction review: Prescient 'World Made by Hand'
"World Made by Hand" is far from a typical postapocalyptic novel. It caters neither to a pseudo-morbid nor faddishly slick vision of the future. Though grim with portent, it is ultimately, as Camus' novel "The Plague," an impassioned and invigorating tale whose ultimate message is one of hope, not despair.
Monsanto Company and Mendel Biotechnology Announce Cellulosic Biofuels Collaboration
Mendel and Monsanto have worked together on the development of biotechnology traits for more than a decade in many crops, including corn, soy, cotton and canola. In this new collaboration, the two companies will apply Monsanto's expertise in crop testing, breeding and seed production to perennial grass seed varieties Mendel is developing for use in biofuels and other commercial applications.
Oil prices pushing well past $100 a barrel will do little to stop worldwide demand, said the economics chief of the International Energy Agency, which advises 27 member countries.Subsidies in China, India and oil-producing countries will combine with strong economic growth in those areas to support demand even with prices rising, Fatih Birol of the IEA told a panel at the energy industry's Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. That prospect runs counter to history, he said.
Georgia says "very close" to war with Russia
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Russia's deployment of extra troops in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia has brought the prospect of war "very close", a minister of ex-Soviet Georgia said on Tuesday....Georgia, a vital energy transit route in the Caucasus region, has angered Russia, its former Soviet master with which it shares a land border, by seeking NATO membership.
Iraq March Oil Revenue Up 12% On Month At $5.644 Billion - Ministry
AMMAN -(Dow Jones)- Revenues from Iraq's oil sales rose 12% in March despite Iraq exporting more crude oil in February, oil ministry figures seen by Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday show.
World may be heating quickly: scientist
Climate change is happening faster than predicted and the world could be as much as seven degrees hotter by the end of the century, a CSIRO scientist says.New Australian research showed current policies did not go far enough to manage the risks posed by climate change, according to Dr Roger Jones, a climate risk analyst with CSIRO's energy transformed flagship.
Flood risk fear over key UK sites
Hundreds of UK power substations and water treatment plants are potentially at risk from flooding, a confidential government study suggests.
Israeli President Sees Eco-Fuel Fighting "Terror"
JERUSALEM - Israeli President Shimon Peres on Monday hailed his country's new weapon against the threat of "terrorism" from its Middle East neighbours -- the electric car.
Palm oil wiping out key orangutan habitat: activists
JAKARTA (AFP) — One of the biggest populations of wild orangutans on Borneo will be extinct in three years without drastic measures to stop the expansion of palm oil plantations, conservationists said Wednesday."For Central Kalimantan, the species will be gone as soon as three years from now," Centre for Orangutan Protection director Hardi Bhaktiantoro told a press conference.
Indonesia adopts stringent "green" palm oil standard
JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, plans to take firm measures aimed at ensuring palm oil firms meet stringent standards before labeling their products as eco-friendly, an industry watchdog said on Wednesday.The rapidly expanding palm oil industry in Southeast Asia has come under attack by green groups for destroying rainforests and wildlife, as well the emission of greenhouse gases.
Germany Defends Biofuels, Hedges Bets on Energy Goals
Germany cannot reach its climate change goals unless it dedicates land to growing biofuels, Germany's agriculture minister Horst Seehofer said after talks in Berlin on Tuesday, May 6. Seehofer defended biofuels against growing criticism that they are responsible for food prices increasing globally, which has caused rioting and hunger in developing countries.
Some See Oil At $150 a Barrel This Year
"It's not that the genie is out of the bottle -- it's that 100 genies are out of the bottle," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Normally known for optimistic forecasts of lowering oil prices, Mr. Yergin's firm now says the price could rise to $150 a barrel this year.The world's diminished spare production capacity remains the strongest single catalyst for high prices, Mr. Yergin says. The world's safety cushion -- the amount of readily available oil that could be pumped in a moment of crisis -- is now around two million barrels a day, according to most estimates. That's just 2.3% of daily demand, and nearly all of the safety cushion is in one country, Saudi Arabia. Everyone else is pretty much pumping all they can, which makes the world vulnerable to political or other shocks.
Oil prices bubble under 122 dollars per barrel
LONDON (AFP) - World oil prices neared record levels close to 122 dollars per barrel on Wednesday as traders awaited a crucial weekly update on American energy reserves amid concern about tight global supplies.New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for June delivery, eased ten cents to 121.74 dollars, after hitting a lifetime peak of 122.73 dollars on Tuesday.
The price of London's Brent North Sea crude for June delivery gained seven cents to 120.38 dollars. The contract had struck a historic pinnacle of 120.99 on Tuesday.
Obama Ready To Lead On Day -261: Nigerian Cease Fire And Oil Impacts
What is MEND? Why is there so much violence in the Niger delta? And why should we care?There's an excellent primer on the situation over at The Oil Drum, a site devoted to discussing resource depletion in general and peak oil in particular. In March of 2007, Jeff Vail wrote a piece titled "Nigeria: Energy Infrastructure Firestorm."
Japan, China tout progress on gas feud at summit
TOKYO (Reuters) - The leaders of Japan and China touted progress towards settling a feud over energy rights in the East China Sea on Wednesday, and agreed at a summit in Tokyo that peaceful cooperation between the two Asian powers was their "only option."
UK: Who is to blame for the soaring oil price?
With the oil price above $100 a barrel, who makes the most money out of a gallon of petrol at the pump? Is it:A. Greedy oil companies.
B. Greedy Opec members.
C. Our glorious Government.
Soaring oil price could drive 'weaker airlines' out of business
The soaring oil price will drive "weaker" rivals out of business, easyJet claimed this morning, despite seeing its own losses treble over the last six months.With oil hitting a new record of $122 a barrel yesterday, and Goldman Sachs forecasting it could hit $200 a barrel this year, easyJet predicted carnage in the airline industry.
Militants in Nigeria oil area seek mediation by Jimmy Carter
LAGOS, Nigeria - The main militant group in Nigeria's oil-rich southern region said Tuesday that it is willing to cease hostilities if the federal government agrees to mediation by Jimmy Carter.The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said the former U.S. president had accepted their invitation to help negotiate an end to the long-running conflict that has disrupted petroleum exports and contributed to the sharp rise in oil prices.
Russians face double-digit gas, power, railway price hikes
Russia's Cabinet yesterday cleared double-digit price rises for gas, power and railway services for this year and the next three years, ignoring inflation fears and public discontent. State-capped prices in some sectors will rise as high as 40% per year.
As oil blasted to a new record above US$122 a barrel yesterday, a new report suggests a "choke point" of US$150 a barrel could slam growth in the United States and cause a rout in stocks similar to the early 1980s energy crunch.
High inflation in Kuwait a national challenge
KUWAIT CITY - Central Bank governor Sheikh Salem Abdulaziz al-Sabah warned on Wednesday that oil-rich Kuwait was faced with a "national challenge" after inflation hit 9.5 percent in January.Sheikh Salem called for "coordination in various national economic policies to curb rising inflation," in a statement carried by the official KUNA news agency.
"Inflation constitutes a national challenge and was the result of local and foreign factors," he said.
'Lazy, short-sighted and irresponsible'
A leaked government memo to British MEPs about how the UK plans to reach the EU's ambitious target of increasing its use of renewables in energy consumption tenfold to 15% by 2020 from the current 1.5% has provoked anger and disbelief among green campaigners."Lazy, short-sighted and irresponsible," is how Caroline Lucas, Green MEP, describes it.
Family Science Project Yields Surprising Data About a Siberian Lake
Although it is known that warming is more intense at high latitudes, as in the Baikal area, and that water is warming in other major lakes, including Lake Tahoe in Nevada and Lake Tanganyika in central Africa, many scientists had thought that Lake Baikal’s enormous volume and unusual water circulation patterns would buffer the effects of global warming.Instead, the researchers report, surface waters in Lake Baikal are warming quickly, on average by about 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit every decade. At a depth of about 75 feet, the increase is about 0.2 degrees per decade, they say, enough to jeopardize species “unable to adapt evolutionarily or behaviorally.”
Australia's koalas threatened by global warming: study
SYDNEY (AFP) - Australia's koalas are threatened by global warming because higher temperatures and increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could cripple their food supply, new research showed Wednesday.
Green movement forgets its politics
Organisations campaigning on climate change need to learn the lessons of the anti-slavery and anti-apartheid movements. By focusing on individuals rather than governments, initiatives such as the recent Energy Saving Day are bound to fail in their bid to reduce emissions.
Climate link with killer cyclones spurs fierce scientific debate
PARIS (AFP) - Climate scientists have begun to debate whether global warming is producing more powerful storms, after Nargis smashed into Myanmar -- brutally changing gear from a Category One to a Category Four cyclone just before it made landfall.Nagris wasn't an isolated incident: Hurricane Katrina laid waste to parts of the US Gulf Coast in 2005.
And in 2007, super-cyclone Gonu the Arabian peninsula was hit by a super-cyclone, Gonu.
Are these events -- massively costly in lives and treasure -- all linked?
Could they be part of an alarming trend of weird, more powerful storms stoked by global warming?
Daniel Yergin/CERA call for $150 oil??
TIME TO GET SHORT!!!!
Does this mean we have to change the definition of a "Yergin"?
And clear a spot in the Cornucopian Cemetery for him?
How can Yergin have any credibility anymore? Why don't they quote someone like Colin Campbell or Ken Deffeyes or David Goodstein - folks who have been right all along? Also, how come on the NBC Nightly News or CBS Evening News they rarely, if ever, have a graph of world oil discoveries or world oil production or world population? Why does the mainstream media continue to do such a poor job even as the situation grows more and more dire? Just rhetorical questions . . .
Hi skip,
Yergin has NO cred. Stop viewing msm. Matter-o-fact, stop watching msm anything. Your head's in the right place. Msm is a tool. Bad tool. Scripted. Your heart will send you messages..."sumpin just don't seem right here"...because something ain't right here. Msm newz is nothing more than infotaintment. And lousy at that. No info, lotsa taint. Turn your TV OFF.
Jeff
Hi Jeff,
You're right. I should turn the TV off (except for the News Hour with Jim Lehrer).
Skip
Sing it brutha! One thing I can recommend is on air HD-TV. Because of it's mandate by congress, most PBS stations have been broadcasting over the air in digital for some time and the News Hour is filmed in HD. I have an HD TV card for my PC and since the News never looked so good! The one problem is that if you have weak signal, it's much worse than watching regular analog TV because you don't just get a bad picture, you get a picture only occasionally.
PBS & NPR have also been quietly corrupted. I admit I still listen to NPR sometimes, but often as not I find myself shouting at the obvious bias, distortions, omissions, and outright lies. To some extent it is more insidious, because people who would not otherwise pay attention to the MSM still believe it to be trustworthy.
NPR could be saved, I think. But it would have to get rid the propaganda chorus called "Marketplace"... which is about the worst excuse for business journalism imaginable. My wife firmly believes that Kai Ryssdal is an actor. "It's not his fault" she always tells me when I reach for the mute button, "he's just reading his script."
Whatever...
NPR started going down-hill as soon as they brought in Kevin Klose to be president. His former job really was spreading propaganda: he used to be the in charge of radio free europe broadcasting the wonders of capitalism to the former communists: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=2101415
I noticed right about this time NPR stopped running so much news and started running things like sports and fashion.
Moyers was on Democracy Now! today, and talked about his NPR experiences a bit.
http://www.democracynow.org/2005/6/22/bill_moyers_the_radical_right_wing
EDIT: I guess that should read CPB and PBS
I used to listen to NPR nearly on a daily basis. I have gradually stopped listening over the past 5 or 6 years. I now listen perhaps once a month, if that - and only for a few minutes (after that I get nauseous). It's the machine's dumbing down of America. Its monotone self-righteousness and fluffy distortions cause the masses to sleepwalk into stupidity - floating on the clouds of self-delusion into the plastic happiness of never-neverland. I mean who really listens to that crap.
Hi GLT,
Yeah, I agree with your sentiment. Even NPR, PBS. and CPB, (is cpb in charge of those two?) are just a skoshe above the netwerx. Might as well be the 5th network. Well, f*ck 'em, we have the web and places like this. I'm going up to the top of my building and throwing my TV onto the pavement, and I'm gonna film it too. jokuhl, I'll send you copy to play with.
Jeff
Or maybe he has recently understood how it all is linked together – plain and simple. In MSM they use the phrase Peak Oil straight forward nowadays – even without thong in cheek. Just a few months back MSM referred to Peak Oil as “a theory” …. “Claimed by those so-called peaksters” .. The times are changing f_a_s_t
(but is there room for forgivness for Yergin? Sure NO! He has been lying all the way to benefit himself , ONLY)
"Thong in Cheek" Now thats an image that really stands out.
Wikipedia thong entry
c'omon triphop, I had such thongs in my mind ! :-)
Paal, I have to say that my thongs are better than your thongs.
Yes they are ! And sometimes I find English complicated ( just heaps of random letters - one placed after another)
But not so many letters as with degraded/simplified Icelandic.
Alan
I think we can call this a "Yergin Inversion"
Yergin inflation. The currency is debased.
Yergin re-valuation.
Just be sure to state "new Yergins" or "old Yergins" when discussing exchange rates.
I'm thinking we should treat them the same way. Based on Yergin's previous predictions, we should expect to see $300/bbl within the next two years. I'll guess December 30th 2009.
How about the great Yergin CYA? This guy has been so wrong, his cred as an oil oracle devastated, now he hedges with his '100 genies.' What I want to know is who is going to hold him accountable for his irresponsible research?
One other point -- that situation Russia vs Georgia is bad. Potential flash-point written all over it.
Daniel Yergin, March 14th, 2008, WSJ ECO:nomics conference:
Daniel Yergin, May 7th, 2008, WSJ, Some See Oil At $150 a Barrel This Year
It does appear that Yergin is in the process of pivoting.
They can't use the dollar sound-bite anymore. Oil has gone from $107 to $122 in the timeframe when the dollar has rallied from 1.6 per Euro to 1.535 per Euro. So a 12% rise in oil vs a 3% RISE in dollar.
Next sound-bit is likely to be 'those damn kids on theoildrum'...
G-d, this pisses me off. Yergin has no one holding him accountable...not even his own freaking conscience. Dastard (look it up...).
And if it ever becomes a Scooby Doo moment like that Nate, that is when we will know that it's over.
Cut the guy some slack.....
Maybe Yergin is finding that his CFO customers, p****d-off with making strategy decisions based on wildly-inaccurate CERA forecasts, are no longer willing to stump up large wads of wonga for them.
He's just like the rest of us - needs to make a living, if he wants to hang on to his McMansion and his V8 commute-mobile. He's beginning to understand, because his livelihood no longer depends on not understanding....
Regards Chris
Goose....
Enjoy the moment.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you...
then you win.
It's a tough moment to enjoy though.
I don't revel in the people who are going to suffer over this, I don't revel in the idea that the people who have voices and resources just think this adaptation will occur without pain to the common populace, and lastly, I don't revel in the sheer lack of critical thinking that surrounds this problem in government and in our polity.
Other than that, I am jumping up and down gleefully.
Not asking for revelation. Asking that we appreciate an important moment. CERA is done. The lying is over. We can move forward.
Gandhi's genius was his attitude about winning. Despising Yergin is easy. But Yergin was just symptomatic of social inertia. If it were not him playing the joker, another would have been used.
The people with "voices and resources" KNOW what's ahead. Yergin can embarrass them to action... but only if he continues to recant. There's nothing more powerful than a liar admitting the truth. Yergin is Saul. He is on the road to Damascus.
Who, us? We're just peak-oil pranksters.
Or, as Phil Flynn likes to call us, "peak freaks." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ_5S0bbjwU
Here's a new one. It's one of the best ones yet.
Oil Rises to Record as U.S. Productivity Gain May Boost Demand.
However, from an earlier article:
Basically, they're arguing that people losing their jobs is going to increase demand for oil.
Idiots. TPTB need to get themselves some better stooges.
I saw this one earlier. Everyday at Bloomberg is a new laugh.
Nate,
I saw your point of concomitant oil and dollar rally noted in a MSM story tonight looking for a reason for today's price. Some may wake up.
The way they inserted Yergin nearly floored me, reads almost as if he's an old hand predicting high prices.
"I understand there are macro factors at play as well. Global supply disruptions and geopolitics, limited spare capacity and increasing extractions costs are the factors Cambridge Energy Research Associates chairman and CNBC contributor Dan Yergin thinks could take oil prices to $150 a barrel."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24506187/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%...
All oil blends at http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude are now trading above 3 Yergins.
CERA has a conference coming up. Oh, to be a fly on the wall..
westexas to predict oil prices at $300 a barrel in 5, 4, 3, ....
Or is it $75 oil ?
Confused in New Orleans,
Alan
Alan,
Yes, I agree. I'm so used to being a contrarian that I'm having a hard time accepting this. I wouldn't be suprised if they drop back down for some reason like recession.
Alan don't be confused. The present volatility of oil prices is only the beginning. It may as well drop to $75, to rebound to $750 shortly thereafter.
What is true is that the ongoing run up will not be without zig zags. But short of total collapse, worldwide, it's hard to imagine $75 ever being seen again. One reason is that $100 would be a point to buy and hoard til the run up resumes. Only total collapse could prevent that from working, IMO.
I was hoping it'd drop to 95 or so for a week so I could take a new step and buy a future or two. You can't get cheap far-off call options on crude anymore.
Wonder why?
Actually, my prediction for a while has been a geometric progression--$50, $100, $200, $400. . .
The only real question is the time period between the doublings.
The Yergin Indicator suggests that oil prices will trade at about twice Yergin's predicted price within a year or two of his prediction (in the summer of 2007 he predicted that oil prices in 2008 would be back down to $60, without a geopolitical event).
The only real question is the time period between the doublings.
Not to be picky, but once you say that, you no longer (except in the case of equal intervals) have exponentiality (geometric)! (You are guaranteed monotonic increasing -- meaning no dips.)
But your point is, IMO, valid, unfortunately.
There is something wrong with that 'gas gauge'.
The rise in US petrol prices from a March a year ago is something around 15% (92p to 105p), not 26%. That's part of the point of high taxes, the price rises are damped.
I think you mean UK petrol prices
Oops, yes.
Rather than a gauge it would be nice to see them plot price against %age rise. Then people might work out how high taxes can be a good thing.
But it is a COOL graphic!
It's very hard to say whether this means $450 oil coming this year, as per past predictions, or $10 oil.
These people really are laughable in how they follow trends, who is still paying for their 'predictions'????
Kevin Drum expresses his surprise:
Kevin Drum has been one of the rare liberal political bloggers who has been following peak oil for awhile. I usually check his blog, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/, daily.
Is this a spin-off? The Kevin Drum
C'mon you guys, I can't believe you didn't go for that one and I had to catch it on PDT zone.
Or is it that cheesy?
The article states:
"At the pump, $150 oil translates into gasoline prices of more than $4.50 a gallon"
I thought the old rule of thumb translated $1 retail gas for each $25 WTI barrel increment. Is this out the window, or didn't it apply at these higher crude prices. I keep thinking that our current retail gas must catch up to $120 crude once refining margins come back.
You'd think Yergin's days are over. He's gone from a peaker to cornucopian and now back. Which way is the wind blowing? He's been so comically incorrect you wondered how he ever kept getting quoted.
Any comments on the 1 to 25 rule of thumb?
Told the Yergin story at dinner. My son asked me if Yergin discovered the earth was round today too.
He must have been the energy adviser on Kerry's presidential campaign.
FTR, I didn't really like the flip-flop BS and I don't have a party affiliation. Wait! I'm not even American so I can't vote... I'll be darned.
You have to multiply his predictions by 2. $300 oil is on the way.
With Yergin predicting $150 per barrel, I move to declare today, May 7, 2008, the day peak oil became main-stream.
Agreed !
These are the same guys that released a grand opus just a few months ago which explained in detail (LOL) why a giant surge of oil was coming online. It truly is basically a BS economy.
oh, cmmon, it takes a couple years for new production to come on line. Yergin just got tired of waiting for it to happen. It WILL happen though, wonit? !!
I don't know, even the megaprojects list put together by TOD editors suggested a surge of, well, of at least capacity in '08 and '09. There could be more supply coming online and even with that prices are going up.
As I understand it, the Megaprojects list is what the oil companies tell us they're hoping for. It's not adjusted for reality.
I think they're planning to do a "projected vs. reality" comparison soon.
My thinking was that even though these were just projections, some constant % of that would come online each year. So if there was a surge in projections for '08 over '07 then there should still be a surge of actual oil production. There are all sorts of reasons why that % might not be a constant though.
In Yergin-land $150/barrel oil is probably due to political problems in Nigeria and so on, and has nothing to do with any idea of peak oil, which will not happen until 2040 or so, as there is plenty of oil left and oil sands etc will come on stream - this high price will lead to massive over-supply, all the more surely as the price is so high.
$38/barrel oil is delayed, not cancelled.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
The market does a pretty good job in pricing above ground resources, but a terrible job in pricing below ground, finite resources. The past 30 years these two issues have largely been camoflaged, but now the below ground limits are being discovered.
It will take a while for the markets to realize this mistake in finance/economics that does not incorporate ecology/geology.
Normal economic theory will start applying when renewables, conservation and more nuclear start coming on line in quantity, as supply will once more respond to demand, not in the narrow sense of increasing the supply of oil, but in the sense of providing the goods that energy gives you.
This kind of discontinuity is not surprising when you have a radical change in technology.
It should also knock away some of the underpinnings of inflation, as many of the costs will only get cheaper over time, although initially they may be more expensive than we are used to.
2020-25 I would guess for some normality to return.
Of course, we may screw up and things may go totally pear-shaped!
IMO the Suburban middle class USA way of life is not returning, ever (and I don't consider myself to be a Doomer).
I'd be interested if you would lay out your position and the reasoning behind it in detail.
I am not particularly a fan of suburbia, preferring walkable districts, but to my surprise when I ran the numbers I could see no real reason why, after a period when personal transport was restricted and central city living or alternatively out and out rural living were much more competitive, it seems to me that at least for the top 50% or so of the population personal EV transport is very do-able, and hence presumably an essentially suburban way of life.
Briefly, power seems to be available at perhaps German rates (around 30cents kwh) and EV's use a fairly trivial amount.
(Nuclear base-load, solar peak load, with contributions from wind and biogas, EV cars would need 5-10% of present grid power)
EV cars though with somewhat restricted capabilities as against present ICC cars might cost around $30-35k, and would last just about forever.
(Th!nk car, £14,000, two seater, 100km range, but batteries are rapidly improving)
Dave: If you conclude that in 12 years (2020) 50% of the USA population (160 million people) will be riding in totally electric cars to their far flung suburban destinations you have a totally different view of the next 12 years from myself. Who exactly do you feel is going to do all these massive changes to the electrical grid overnight? First they start talking about it and then MAYBE it is done 10 years later-these changes aren't even proposed. You are living in fantasyland on this one.
Brian, please check my figures in more detail before reaching conclusions about how fantastic they are.
I actually gave the period as 2020-25, so that allows more time for laggards.
On what do you base your assertions that massive changes to the electric grid would be needed?
EP's calculations show that we would need around 50-100GW for a fleet of the present size to be run on electric.
I have hypothecated only around half the population having access, and not necessarily to the levels of today, so you are talking about 25-50GW out of a total capacity on the grid of around 1,000GW, which would be available anyway in the deep recession implied by $400 oil, or wind power could easily provide it.
Electric cars which would meet the specifications are on sale already, and EV cars are much better suited to production by smaller concerns that ICC, as they do not rely on all the metal bashing
Suburbia would not make a full comeback anyway within this timeframe, but it would become clear that it was becoming viable again.
If you wish to argue to the contrary, then data rather than assertion is preferable.
Dave: What you are theorizing is a viable USA suburban sprawl mode co-existing with dramtically higher fossil fuel prices and oil depletion. Since you like data, tell me what % of the USA electrical grid is currently powered by fossil fuels vs 17 yrs ago (2008 to 2025 is 17 yrs). It is basically the same %. Even if things are done like you believe, massive, sudden change like you envision is done when TPTB feel it is absolutely imperative-currently they do not feel any urgency whatsoever, probably because oil depletion's negative effects are hitting the poorest first.
Brian, I don't see the sprawl carrying on regardless - during the time period I gave I would expect it to have a very hard time.
Unfortunately though I can't see anything to prevent it starting to make a come-back towards the end of the time scale I gave.
Dracula ain't in it.
I'd much prefer a more European pattern, with most area walkable, and Alan's trains everywhere, but access to cars when needed.
It would be wonderful if some of our out-of town malls even here in Europe were to die in the process, although of course that means that people will have tough times.
Dude, today's reality is folks cannot find buyers for their gas hogs to enable them to buy a more efficient car. How in the hell are they going to afford an electric? What power source is for all that electricity? Who's going to finance it? Back to the now lower former middle class folks who no longer have jobs and are on the edge of rebellion; do you seriously think they will have any sort of monetary resources to buy the new fangled tech car so BAU can continue? What financial institution is still going to exist that will provide the loans for such purchases to people having no jobs?
They're called Pipe Dreams for a reason. And the fuel in the pipe ain't tobacco.
If your questions are anything other than rhetorical you might try reading the posts where all the points you raise are answered.
But don't let actual data interrupt you - you obviously have a message direct from God informing you in detail about exactly how things are going to pan out, and therefore no need of rationality.
Talk about reading one's posts Dave. You've been here for 18 weeks and 4 days. I've browsed your stuff and not bothered to comment till now. I've been investigating Peak Oil since 1999, and have been an oildrummer for almost 3 years now. I've read all sorts of pie-in-the-sky ideas that will allow for BAU to continue. It cannot. The resources do NOT exist. The best course of action on a global basis is a planned power down to minimize the amount of pain inflicted by the current--and still growing--level of overshoot. Or do the deaths of millions of mostly non-white people not bother you?
Wow! You've been here a long time!
You must be right!
If you want to make a point try arguing it, not declaring it ex cathedra.
No one is saying that there will not be disruption, nor am I arguing that BAU will continue.
You are creating a straw man.
Cool it, guys. Attack ideas all you want. Lay off the personal attacks.