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DrumBeat: May 9, 2008
Posted by Leanan on May 9, 2008 - 9:12am
Topic: Miscellaneous
What does it mean that crude oil is peaking? Essentially it means that the world has used half the oil available to extract and will enter a permanent decline, even as world energy demand is rising, with new economic powerhouses China and India growing at an alarming rate. Peak oil does not mean we are on the verge of running out of oil; the overriding implication is that we are entering a period of relentlessly rising prices and ultimate shortfalls. This is ominous for economies and for individuals facing a seeming perfect storm of hardships financial and otherwise. Talk to a poor mother trying to fill her oil tank through a northern winter, or to a fisherman paying $6,000 in diesel fuel costs to get to and from Georges Bank, to a South American peasant thrown off his land to make room for “palm oil for biofuel” plantations, or to a native Athabascan woman watching as Alberta tar sands operations lay waste to formerly pristine ecosystems over an area the size of Florida.
State of Connecticut Begins Planning for Peak Oil
State Rep. Terry Backer (D-Stratford) announced passage of a bill he authored, House Bill#5724, An Act Concerning Energy Scarcity And Security, that will take steps to ensure Connecticut's energy planning is in place and alternative strategies have been designed to address the ever increasing cost and potential supply disruption in the face of global oil supply constrictions.Representative Backer, co-founder of the Connecticut Legislative Peak Oil and Natural Gas Caucus said, "We are standing at the doorstep of a sea change in energy and our consumption of it. The world's oil supply so critical to every aspect of modern life and is not keeping pace with demand globally. It is unlikely that enough supply and flow will ever be generated to satisfy the global economy and demand –everything changes from here in and we must be prepared"
Oil prices may hang above $100 a barrel for the rest of this year but will fall as low as $80 next year as world demand slackens and Saudi Arabia tries to buy influence with the incoming president by pumping more crude oil, an influential Lehman Brothers analyst said in a report issued today.Saudi engineers have been working on several big projects that could boost the nation's output by 1.3 million barrels a day--more than the expected increase in global demand next year--but the secretive nation is "likely to keep its political tool, excess production capacity, close to its chest until it has a new U.S. president to win over," Morse writes.
A surge in the number of icebergs off Newfoundland has imperilled marine traffic and added work for the flight crews who monitor offshore.About 600 icebergs are currently on the Grand Banks, roughly double the total all last year, according to the U.S. Coast Guard. Two years ago, the area had virtually none.
And the "sheer number" of bergs this spring in the area near the oil rigs has left spotters "very busy," Luc Desjardins, senior ice and iceberg forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service, said from Ottawa in a telephone interview this week.
Sea changes could warn of Day After Tomorrow scenario
In the movie The Day After Tomorrow, the world froze pretty quickly when a major ocean current, dubbed the "ocean conveyor belt", turned off.While that was a work of fiction, slowdowns of the conveyor are possible and researchers have now found a way of giving us a few years' advance notice.
Although even 10 years' warning would be too late to do anything about preventing such an event, it could help people plan ahead to adapt, they say.
A big price to pay beyond the pump
Gas prices are on the rise and the effects are being seen throughout the county.Transportation plays a major role in all aspects of life including those that help Fulton County function efficiently. With gas prices rising regularly and the future of the increases unknown, many people are wondering what will have to change for Fulton County to stay financially stable.
Carolyn Baker: 12 Stepping Our Way To Armageddon
I recently received an email from a reader, frustrated with my insistence on holding a vision of what is possible alongside the dismal, inevitable current realities of civilization's collapse. Admonishing me to bear in mind America's Oprah and NASCAR world view and therefore abdicate any sense of optimism I might have, this reader accused me of suggesting that we should 12 Step our way through Armageddon. Rather than being offended, however, I was overcome with gratitude for this reader's image, frustrated with me as he may be, because in spite of the regular "wordsmithing" that I do as a writer, I always feel a sense of relief and validation when someone else gives words that I may not yet have for what I've been thinking, feeling, or doing.
G-7 Central Bankers Stymied By 'Crude Oil Vigilantes'
The “Group of Seven” central bankers, who control the money spigots in two-thirds of the world’s economy, huddled with their colleagues from China and Russia behind closed doors in Basel, Switzerland this week, haunted by the “Crude Oil Vigilantes” who threaten to unravel G-7 schemes to rescue troubled global banks. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Sweet traded as high as $124 /barrel, doubling from a year ago and guiding Chicago Corn futures to all-time highs.
Oil stockpile a drop in the bucket
Congress is calling for a freeze in shipments to the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But analysts say that would do little to lower prices.
Oil addiction to drive US election
WITH Wall Street suddenly abuzz with talk of crude oil prices reaching $US200 a barrel and the three remaining presidential candidates apparently vying with one another to present the most politically opportunistic (and economically absurd) energy "plan", it is becoming increasingly clear that America's addiction to cheap oil is likely to be a major issue this November.Unfortunately, if the recent level of discourse is any indication, there is little likelihood of anything useful emerging from the political debate. For that to happen, there would have to be an acknowledgment by politicians that the forces of supply and demand prevail in the global oil market, just like other markets, and are at the root of US dependence on imported oil.
High energy costs a boon in disguise for candidates
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Across the country, nobody is happy about high and rising oil and gasoline prices. But there are at least three people who should be delighted by them (in addition to the well-paid oil company executives): Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Barack Obama.
Alberta to look at exporting oil overseas: Stelmach
If the United States follows through with a boycott of oil from Alberta's tarsands, the province will build a pipeline to the West Coast so it can sell to other countries, Premier Ed Stelmach said Thursday.
Serbian govt approves oil and gas agreement with Russia
BELGRADE (Itar-Tass) -- The Serbian government has unanimously approved the oil and gas agreement with Russia and recommended the parliament to ratify it, the government press office said on Friday.
Slow death everywhere: Israel's continued siege is taking Gaza back to the Stone Age
Armed with a sharp axe, Jihad Abu Hamam creeps about once a week into the woods on the eastern border of Al-Qarara village in the southern Gaza Strip. He cuts tree branches there and pulls them to his house two kilometres away. Jamila, his wife, uses these branches as kindling that she lights to cook their food each day, ever since the family's store of gas for cooking ran out a month ago due to the Israeli decision to bar the entry of gas to the Gaza Strip.
Tanzania: Kerosene prices skyrocket
Both the government and oil dealers in the city`s three municipalities of Kinondoni, Ilala and Temeke, have admitted in separate interviews that the country is experiencing an acute shortage of kerosene.In same vein, environmentalists describe the situation as too pathetic.
They fear further depletion of already degraded forests, as five million plus people in Dar es Salaam alone will definitely substitute kerosene for charcoal.
The Philippines: Amid crisis, birth spacing pushed
The time has come to practice birth spacing as a long-term solution to the threat posed by population growth outstripping food production.President Arroyo issued the call, noting that population reached 88.57 million at a census in August last year.
But the President declined to elaborate on birth spacing. Her administration has adopted a conservative stance on the use of contraceptives to control the population, espousing instead the Church-backed natural family planning method.
South Carolina: House plan will run out of gas
Maintenance at S.C. State University will have to wait, and school buses will run out of fuel by spring, under a tighter House budget passed Thursday.Lower-than-expected state revenues forced some tough budget decisions and a revised $7 billion state spending plan.
Centrica warns on wind farm costs
Centrica, one of the UK's biggest energy generators, has warned that the prospect of making money from wind farms is looking "marginal".The company says that the rising cost of off-shore wind farms could end up ruining the government's renewable energy targets.
The comments come a week after Shell withdrew from a project that was set to become the world's largest wind farm.
U.S. consumers rank last in world survey of green habits
WASHINGTON — Americans rank last in a new National Geographic-sponsored survey released Wednesday that compares environmental consumption habits in 14 countries.Americans were least likely to choose the greener option in three out of four categories — housing, transportation and consumer goods_ according to the assessment. In the fourth category, food, Americans ranked ahead of Japanese consumers, who eat more meat and seafood.
At Dollar Foods on Commercial Drive, manager Quoc On is busy in the back supervising the arrival of a food shipment. The aisles are jammed with hungry customers, the lineup at the cashier is deep, and outside the front door boxes of fresh fruit and vegetables are piled high on the sidewalk, the fresh produce sparkling in the warm springtime sun. The scene is one of affluence and abundance, yet behind this façade a crisis is brewing that may signal the end of the Age of Endless Abundance. At the very least, the days of cheap food imported from all around the world at very low prices may be about to end.
Ending state monopoly of oil in Mexico could remake Latin America
It could be said that Latin America will come of age politically the day that Pemex, Mexico's oil behemoth, ceases to be a state monopoly. Until that happens, the psyche of many Latin Americans will be beholden to the mythical notion that government-owned natural resources are the custodians of national identity.That is why President Felipe Calderón's efforts to open up the oil sector to private investment in Mexico have profound cultural implications.
Tasmania poised for oil, gas bonanza
TASMANIA may be on the verge of a multi-billion-dollar onshore oil and gas boom.US exploration company Empire Energy Corporation yesterday unveiled a $31 million program to drill up to eight test wells at key locations in an exploration lease covering 23 per cent of the state.
It also released an independent expert's prediction that the lease could hold between 67million and 145million barrels of oil and between 344billion and 799billion cubic feet of natural gas.
Production of more oil can’t be taken off the table
The answer to energy problems should have been addressed a decade ago or longer. A bipartisan group of 20 experts in energy met for over three years to come up with a plan to help alleviate the impending energy crisis. They completed their work in 2004 with recommendations that encompass the issues of oil security, the environment, fuel efficiency, renewable fuels, etc.Yes, the commission recommended environmental controls, expanding renewable fuel sources and fuel efficiency standards. Also among those suggestions, however, were to expand and develop nuclear energy, explore and develop the fields in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), build more refineries and increase mandatory fuel efficiency standards for automobiles, trucks and utility vehicles.
The far left, including Barack Hussen Obama, and their shills in the dinosaur media are moaning about, and disparaging McCain and Clinton’s proposal for a temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax. The elites don’t care that gas prices will keep many working Americans from taking any vacation this summer. Nor do they care that the price of gas is forcing Americans to pay more for everything from food to clothing. They’re just outraged that anyone would expect the government to get by with a little less even while the citizens are suffering.
These days, the price of oil seems ever on the rise. A barrel of crude broke another barrier Wednesday -- $123 -- on international markets, and the talk is now of the sort of "superspike" in pricing (only yesterday unimaginable) that might break the $200 a barrel ceiling "within two years." And that would be without a full-scale American air assault on Iran, after which all bets would be off.Considering that, in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks, oil was still in the $20 a barrel price range, this is no small measure of what the Bush administration years have really accomplished.
Democrats' Windfall Tax — On You
As any student who's taken Econ 101 at the local junior college can tell you, higher taxes don't encourage production; they discourage it. But Senate Democrats apparently played hooky the day taxes were discussed. They should at least have read the report from their own nonpartisan Congressional Research Service in 2006.It shows that from 1980 to 1986, the last time the U.S. had a windfall profits tax on oil companies, the results were disappointing. As the chart shows, oil companies were hit hard by the tax. And in line with basic economic theory, they produced less oil, not more.
Welch says his plan to suspend shipments to the national reserve is gaining support
Democratic Congressman Peter Welch says he's encouraged that a number of prominent Republicans are now backing his plan to suspend shipments to the national Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Welch says the proposal is part of a larger plan that's designed to reduce gasoline prices by as much as 75 cents a gallon.
A food security expert at UB says the worldwide food crisis is a direct result of the choices made by policy-makers and the lack of attention paid to the food system and its relationship to global warming and fossil fuels.
Germany Warns Of Economic Risks From Species Loss
BERLIN - Nations must act to slow extinction rates, German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel said on Thursday, arguing the loss of species threatened food supplies for billions of people.
Go Easy On Biofuels Until More Clarity - World Bank
WASHINGTON - A senior World Bank official said on Thursday that countries should not greatly increase biofuels production until there is more clarity about how much they have contributed to the global food price crisis.Juergen Voegele, director for agriculture and rural development department at the World Bank, cautioned against shifting a lot of the blame to biofuels but also said massive subsidies for the biofuel industry was not helping the crisis.
Salt water tested as fuel source
SEATTLE – For more than a year, it's been widely circulated on the Internet as a scientific oddity.Now a process that converts sea water into a possible fuel source is gaining legitimacy.
For Sale: Machine To Make Home-Made Ethanol
NEW YORK - A new company hopes drivers will kick the oil habit by brewing ethanol at home that won't spike food prices.E-Fuel Corp unveiled on Thursday the "MicroFueler" touting it as the world's first machine that allows homeowners to make their own ethanol and pump the brew directly into their cars.
Niagara Summit told of brave new globally warmed world
Niagara's future isn't as dependent on the mid-peninsula corridor and selling wine to Germany as it is on containing urban sprawl, improving public transportation and developing policies that will help the elderly and the poor cope with heat waves that push the mercury above 40øC for days on end, a renowned political scientist and bestselling author says.Thomas Homer-Dixon said municipal politicians have to start planning now for a world where extreme storms, prolonged droughts and oppressive heat waves are common. Where the increased cost of shipping food halfway across the world makes eating locally grown food more feasible.
Climate, Culture, and Collapse: Responding to Rapid Change
Recent and emerging observations of the severity of human-induced climate change have led to a feverish burst of publications imploring radical and immediate action. Many of the world’s most eminent scientists are now joining NGOs in calling for drastic halts in greenhouse gas emissions and societal changes on an unprecedented and global scale. The Climate Code Red Call for a Sustainability Emergency, for instance, likens our current position to that of the astronauts in the Apollo 13 crisis: a desperate time-crunch necessitating quick thinking, rapid response, and radical action.However, the magnitude of the climate issue is profound and the mainstream has not responded to the scale of the threat. We are at the cusp of a global crisis that is still only perceived by relatively few individuals and groups. The voices of these authorities – our leading global change scientists and organizations – are often muffled, suppressed, or diminished by the influence of media and mass culture.
Gas jumps above $3.67, oil passes $126 on Venezuela concerns
NEW YORK - Oil rose above $126 a barrel for the first time Friday, bringing its advance this week to nearly $10, as investors questioned whether a possible confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela could cut exports from the OPEC member. Gas prices, meanwhile, rose above an average $3.67 a gallon at the pump, following oil's recent path higher.On Friday, The Wall Street Journal published a report that suggested closer ties between Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and rebels attempting to overthrow Colombia's government. Chavez has been linked to Colombian rebels previously, but the paper reported it had reviewed computer files indicating concrete offers by Venezuela's leader to arm guerillas. That appears to heighten the chances that the U.S. could impose sanctions on one of its biggest oil suppliers.
"If we put on sanctions, I'm sure Chavez would threaten to cut off our oil supply," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "Obviously that would have a major impact on oil prices."
Light, sweet crude for June delivery vaulted to a new record of $126.20 in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange before retreating to trade up $1.09 at $124.78 a barrel.
OTC: "There is plenty oil in the world" - Sandrea
There is no oil scarcity in the world, "there is plenty of oil in the world", Dr. Rafael Sandrea, president of IPC Petroleum Consultants Inc., a Tulsa base International consulting firm, speaking at a press conference at the OTC energy conference in Houston, on Wednesday, insisted.... Contrary to the case of scarcity of oil reserves, Sandrea proves with his model that global crude oil and natural gas reserves are still strong and only 20% of the discovered reserves have been used.
Even do some experts for see a crucial inflection point ahead, base in historic discovery rates, and their estimates of decline, in the world hydrocarbons reserves, claiming that a peak oil and gas production is looming and a collapse in in the horizon, Sandrea, said that until now, nobody has made a credible attempt to quantify future potential oil and gas supply in detail, ands on a global basis.
Sandrea concludes that, contrary to the well publicize "Peak Oil theory" that oil & gas reserves are in imminent danger of "falling from cliff", there is in fact spare capacity available with the demand and supply remaining in balance for decades to come.
Real Networks CEO Rob Glaser: He Got Game
Real Networks (RNWK) CEO Rob Glaser says his company so far is feeling few effects from the economic downturn. And in fact, the company today reported better-than-expected Q1 results.In an interview this afternoon with Tech Trader Daily, Glaser does say that the one area where he sees some “clouds” going forward is advertising, which affects several of the company’s businesses, but which overall is less than 10% of Real’s revenues. Ask Glaser about the economy, and he’ll say that while he’s bullish on his own company, he’s not quite as optimistic about the broad picture. Glaser says he’s a “peak-oil believer” who is on his third hybrid. Oil, he says, is not going back to $60 anytime soon, “if ever.”
Conversion to a symmetrical or parallel system for our world’s electricity generation will require a combination of small, locally-generated power supplies, coupled with individual home generation, in addition to the regular power grid supply. Conversion to a new world, not in geography, but in power generation will need to be developed as a hybrid of generation sources comprised of: Concentrating Solar Power (CSP), Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Wind, PV Panel, Tidal Current and Magnetic Linear Generator Buoys, plus Bio-Mass and Biogas in addition to coal and natural gas.
ANALYSIS - World begins to smart from oil's too rapid rise
LONDON, May 9 (Reuters) - From the poorest of Africa to the United States and big business, a breakneck rally that could take oil to $200 a barrel is likely to inflict pain on everyone.The world was remarkably resilient to a series of record prices in 2007, but a roughly 30 percent rise since the end of last year, with predictions of more to come, is harder to absorb.
"The key issue is the rate of change. The recent exponential rise is unhealthy for everyone," a senior executive from a major oil company said. He declined to be named.
Russia foreign investors unfazed by rows with West
LONDON (Reuters) - With oil at more than $125 per barrel and growth booming, foreign investors in Russia are finding it easy to turn a blind eye to disputes with the West and increasingly bellicose rhetoric over Georgia.
Record oil prices bring fresh interest in L.A.'s wells
LOS ANGELES — Record prices are prompting oil prospectors to renew interest in drilling in Los Angeles, where urban sprawl, environmental opponents and decades of production make for one of the world's toughest oil fields."We're more active than ever," says Tim Marquez, CEO and founder of Venoco, which is running wells and reviving old ones in the city and elsewhere in California.
March trade surplus widens on energy prices
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Rising prices for oil and natural gas exports boosted Canada's trade surplus to C$5.53 billion ($5.48 billion) in March, above expectations for a third straight month and the highest level since May of last year, Statistics Canada said on Friday.Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast, on average, a trade surplus of C$4.5 billion. Statscan revised the February surplus to C$4.79 billion from C$4.94 billion previously.
Ensuring the Future of the Oil and Gas Industry
Despite the rising price of oil, experts predict that the oil and gas industry will experience a void in employees in the coming years. In addition to the "Graying Workforce" phenomenon, there simply are not as many young people joining the industry.
Chevron: 1,100 employees eliminated within reorganization
NEW YORK - Chevron Corp. said about 1,100 employees were eligible for severance payments at the end of the first quarter, after the nation's second largest oil company eliminated the positions as part of a restructuring and reorganization plan.
India: Coal situation worsens at thermal stations: Chinese demand eating into imports
Coal reserves at power stations have hit a record low.Nearly a third of the country’s thermal stations are now reported to be facing “critical stocks”, where coal stocks are expected to last less than seven days.
Planes fly more, emit less greenhouse gas
WASHINGTON — The U.S. aviation industry has cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 13% since 2000, even as the amount of flying has reached record levels, government data show.
Conservationists make most of real estate crisis
Plummeting real estate values and demand for new housing are hammering developers but helping conservationists, enabling land trusts to buy thousands of acres that were slated for development and preserve them as open space.
Michael T. Klare: Portrait of an Oil-Addicted Former Superpower
Nineteen years ago, the fall of the Berlin Wall effectively eliminated the Soviet Union as the world's other superpower. Yes, the USSR as a political entity stumbled on for another two years, but it was clearly an ex-superpower from the moment it lost control over its satellites in Eastern Europe.Less than a month ago, the United States similarly lost its claim to superpower status when a barrel crude oil roared past $110 on the international market, gasoline prices crossed the $3.50 threshold at American pumps, and diesel fuel topped $4.00. As was true of the USSR following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the USA will no doubt continue to stumble on like the superpower it once was; but as the nation's economy continues to be eviscerated to pay for its daily oil fix, it, too, will be seen by increasing numbers of savvy observers as an ex-superpower-in-the-making.
Oil price vaults to record 125.98 dollars
LONDON (AFP) - The price of New York crude oil surged past 125 dollars per barrel on Friday, lifted by speculative demand amid concerns about tight global energy supplies, analysts said.New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for June delivery, spiked as high as 125.98 dollars in early afternoon London trading.
And London's Brent crude contract hit an all-time pinnacle of 125.68 dollars.
"Oil futures hit fresh record highs, continuing gains from yesterday," said Sucden analyst Michael Davies on Friday.
Prices have rocketed to fresh records every day this week on the back of unrest in key producer Nigeria, other ongoing supply worries and the weak dollar which stimulates demand.
The price of oil has soared by 25 percent since the start of 2008 and has doubled since the same stage last year -- when it stood at about 62 dollars.
Oil execs see $100-or-less cost by year’s end
HOUSTON - Even as oil prices ascended to new highs of more than $124 a barrel this week, many oil and gas industry executives say they expect the price to fall significantly by year’s end, a new survey shows.Fifty-five percent of 372 petroleum industry executives surveyed by KPMG LLP said they think the price of a barrel of crude will drop below $100 by the end of the year. Twenty-one percent of respondents predicted a barrel of oil will end the year between $101 and $110, while 15 percent forecast the year-end price to be between $111 and $120 a barrel.
UK: Thefts of heating oil rise
THE soaring price of fuel has prompted a surge in thefts of domestic heating oil from tanks outside homes and farms across the region....The oil thefts follows a trend of thieves taking items containing metals such as lead, copper and even platinum, which have all been soaring in value.
Scores of churches and schools have had lead stolen from their roofs, copper wiring has been stolen from alongside railway tracks. Catalytic converters have been stolen from vehicles parked outside garages and homes for the platinum they contain.
NYMEX: Speculators Aren't Driving Oil Market
Democrats in the U.S. Senate are looking beyond a summer gasoline tax holiday to focus on broader oil market fundamentals. Yesterday, Senate Majority leader Harry Reid [D-Nev.] unveiled the Consumer-First Energy Act, which calls for a revocation of tax breaks to big oil companies, a windfall profit tax and a cap on additions to the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Included in the bill is a diktat to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC] to substantially raise margin requirements for oil futures. That measure, say the bill's sponsors, would discourage excessive speculation which is blamed for fueling oil's meteoric price trajectory.
Gas prices hit 2nd straight daily record
The high price of gas has burdened motorists and truckers.It's also put the squeeze on thousands of farmers.
They drive tractors up and down row after row of field after field to plow, seed and tend to their crops. That means they shell out big bucks for gas and diesel, which set its own record Friday at $4.269 a gallon - and there's no end in sight.
Bill Olthoff, a farmer and member of the board of directors of the Illinois Farm Bureau, says a tanker of diesel cost him $4,000 about 10 years ago. Now he pays $30,000 for a tanker, which lasts him through the year at his farm in Bourbonnais, Ill.
Delta, American, United raise prices
NEW YORK (AP) -- The three biggest U.S. carriers said Thursday they have again raised ticket prices, this time by $20 roundtrip, to recoup rapidly rising fuel costs.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Transiting to Transit
With crude oil now above $120 a barrel and threatening to go higher, it is clear that our preferred and convenient means of going places, our car, the airplane and the rental car soon are going to be parked because they will be too expensive to operate.Like it or not, most of us are going to be riding some form of mass transit or multiple passenger vehicle – trains, buses, trolleys, car pools, van pools etc.- while waiting for our cars to be replaced with electric or higher mileage vehicles. As there are currently about 220 million cars and light trucks registered in the U.S. and 700 million or so elsewhere, the replacement process is going to be lengthy one.
GAS PRICES HIT USA HARD - special report by USA Today
Record high gas prices are prompting Americans to drive less for the first time in nearly three decades, squeezing family budgets and causing major shifts in driving habits, federal data and a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll show.See also:
● Interest in mass transit, carpools, scooters jumps
● Some rethink where to call home
Return of the population timebomb
It has become taboo over recent years, but population, not consumption, really is the key to managing our use of the world's resources, says John Feeney,Only since 1800, in the last 0.01 per cent of the history of Homo sapiens, has the human population shot into the billions. Now at nearly 6.7 billion, with 9 billion looming 40 years away, few environmentalists seem to care.
Yet the population-environment link is clear. Our environmental impact, as gauged by total resource consumption for a country or the world, is the product of population size and the average person's consumption.
Peru's Tribal Land Protected From Gas Concessions
LIMA - Indigenous rights groups praised Peru's petroleum agency on Thursday for excluding areas where isolated tribes live from an auction of oil and gas concessions.Rights groups say the decision is a turnaround for Perupetro, which previously had indicated it might open up the protected areas for bidding.
A Gulf in Giving: Oil-Rich States Starve the World Food Program
WFP internal documents show that the major oil producing nations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gives almost nothing to the food organization, even as skyrocketing oil prices and swollen oil revenues contribute to the very crisis that the U.N. claims could soon add 100 million more people to the world’s starving masses.
Food banks urge passage of farm bill; critical shortage of food as clients increase
All of the participating food banks said their agencies are seeing families and faces they haven't seen before — working people who never thought they would have trouble making ends meet. One food banker in Minneola, N.Y., noted, "The middle class is accessing food from our agencies." Another relayed the story of a professional consultant that asked about emergency food assistance, "because her clients had not paid her yet and she was concerned that she may possibly be in need."
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On Saturday May 10th, letter carriers in more than 10,000 communities will collect food items and deliver them to local food banks to help some of the millions of Americans, including an estimated 13 million children, who face hunger every day. |
They had a piece on the morning news on TV about how gas prices might hit 7$/gallon by the end of the year. Apparently in reaction to the Goldman Sachs thing that came out earlier about 200$/bbl oil. And then they did the obligatory interviews with folks at the gas station to get their reactions, which were quite predictable.
Note that the story on TV said "by the end of the year" - my recollection is that Goldman Sachs said that it could be in a couple of years...
At $125 it doesn't matter.
Seen everything that the FedRes has been trying to cover up since
Summer 2005?
Housing, food, credit cards, stuck with gas guzzlers?
Add $2 the gallon on top of that.
Kaiser Family Foundation Poll:
The poll listed gas prices as the number one economic concern for people living below the median household income in the U.S.
Problems Experienced as a Result of Changes in the Economy,
by Household Income
Percent saying each was a “serious problem”
Problems paying for gas:
<$30k, 63%
$30-$75k, 43%
>$75k, 27%
If you ask me, the number one use of George Bush's stimulus check for people living at or below the median is going to be filling the gas tank. The stimulus check will fill up people's gas tanks through the summer, with the caveat that it will also drive up gas prices even further.
The stimulus check was a brilliant plan to promote summer driving and increase the trade deficit.
"If you ask me, the number one use of George Bush's stimulus check for people living at or below the median is going to be filling the gas tank."
A poll just done (can't source it off hand, saying exactly that).
All utility bills. Which gives exactly zero stimulus.
Casaubon’s Book
Sharon Astyk’s Ruminations on an Ambiguous Future. ... Looking at my 2K oil bill, I can forsee what is going to happen to large numbers of my neighbors ...
sharonastyk.com/
It is amazing. George Bush has about a 20% approval rating. But it is "his" check that is going out. I thought that in about 3rd grade I learned that Congress (currently democrat controlled in both houses) had to pass any bill for the president to sign. Details are so troublesome.
We need to stop conforming and calling the stimulus check. This just validates it. Let's call it what it is: The Congressional Incumbent Protection Act.
I can't claim credit for that, I heard it somewhere (talk radio I think).
I call it HUSH MONEY.
That guy had a 10% approval rating when he stolled the chair. How'ed he gain so much?
And I live in the most corrupt state in the union (OH) [with pride], hell, we'd of laughed that rookie right on outa here. Guyz a f*cking ameture, or armeture, or whatever. My spell checker's taking a dip, sorry folks. As vice-president for the last 8 years, I'm not impressed. President Darth shoulda kicked his ass out long time ago.
F*ckin" *ssholes. Eeerrrggghhhh!!!
Perhaps that meme is what is needed to boost small car sales by more than the rather pathetic 18.9% recently reported. And "other adjustments".
Best Hopes for Both Smaller and Fewer Cars,
Alan
I'm hoping all of this leads to more motorcycle buddies to ride alongside when I'm going places on my motorcycle instead of my car. :)
I got my first motorcycle this year, at age 55. A 225cc Yamaha. Never been on one before. I can't wait till the speed limits get lowered. Another motive for conservation: fear.
I'm in about the same situation (55, never ridden before). I'm thinking about getting an electric motorcycle and completely cutting off from oil. I haven't done anything yet though.
I decided to learn on something I didn't mind crashing (which has happened). Used small motorcycles are trivially cheap compared to anything electric - and their range is much better (and can easily be extended by strapping on an extra cannister). I know the "purity" feeling - but I decided I needed to get started one way or another before I got any older. I forced myself to learn by signing up for a MSF class. I just wish the cars wouldn't tailgate while I'm still getting used to getting bashed around by wind at 40 mph.
I drive about 5-15 miles a day within a 5-mile radius of my home and get tailgated most days by some big SUV. That tells me a very large percentage of people tailgate out of habit and that would scare the crap out of me were I on a motorcycle.
You should see the file on my computer for gas prices that SUV drivers will soon face, for instance, at $4.00/gallon it would cost them $120 to fill up, at $5.75 or $200/bbl oil, it would cost them $175.50. I don't think that SUV's will be on the road much longer.
Wish that were true. In actual fact if your job is secure or somehow Fed government funded (e.g. medical related, or aid worker in NOLA or ...) and you live close enough to work that $7/gallon will not be enough. The folks who put on a lot of miles, or are facing income pressures will be the first to fold and get something smaller.
Driving every SUV and pick-up off the road could take 10 years. Still a lot of time to get hit by one.
Given a large SUV with a tank of 30 gallons, a fillup would be $210 at $7 per gallon. If one lives in the suburbs and fills up every two weeks, thats $420 per month. Double that if one lives in a busy metro like northern Virginia or Los Angeles which has atrocious traffic. Furthermore, many of these SUVs were purchased when gas was around $2.50 a gallon, meaning that the mortgages and finances of these people are not prepared for the price rises that are coming. In addition, $7 per gallon would force us further down into the permanent recession that comes with peak oil and that would likely mean job losses for many people. Also I can foresee huge federal penalties being assessed against SUV drivers when gas prices rise above $7 per gallon due to the ignorant public looking for a scapegoat after an attack on the oil industry didn't make prices go down.
What, you mean incessantly talking about how much Exxon made won't bring prices down? Shucks!
Hi Berkely and Shargash,
Now you have me worried about you!
Are bicycles safer, maybe? Especially once the dedicated lanes are installed?
http://local.theoildrum.com/node/3061
There's a lot of debate about this. The problem with bike lanes is that then there is this expectation that bikes not use normal traffic lanes. For example, to make a left-hand turn, you need to come out of the bike lane and get in the left-hand turn lane.
Another problem is that frequently right-turn lanes are to the left of the bike lane, so if you want to go straight on the bike lane, you have people trying to turn right in front of you.
Thus on many streets bicyclists prefer to take the lane. Get into the turn lane if you are turning, otherwise get into the thru lane. Otherwise you get sideswiped by a driver who doesn't see you in their mirror or some such.
Another point I can make here. People are worried about driving smaller vehicles (scooters, bicycles, motorcycles) - I guess mainly they are worried that people with big SUVs will run them off the road or something. My experience on a bicycle is that it is really all in your mind - the reality is nowhere nearly as bad as you think. Even when I drive my Jetta on the highway, if I take the right hand lane and drive the speed limit, I never feel threatened at all. Yet lots of people I know locally insist that they have to speed or otherwise someone run them over, but in reality they only intimidate you if you let them.
Hi ericy,
Thanks. I didn't realize it was quite this complicated. Perhaps in urban settings some combination of the "slow" dedicated lane and regular use of roads for faster cyclists might be the best combination. Or, what's your conclusion?
My original question was based on my personal observations. From my pool of acquaintances/friends, every commuter I've known who rode a motorcycle or motor scooter (Note: past tense) has had a collision, w. serious injuries. Whereas only one cyclist I know has. Though I do know of a cyclist on a road trip from Austin to Brownsville, TX, who was deliberately "scared off the road", i.e., attempted sideswipe by an SUV. A hopefully rare anecdote.
Bicycle boxes seem a good solution to the turning problem. They are used a lot in Cambridge, England, and seemed to work well in my experience when I was last there:
http://www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/bicyclespedestrians/tools/bicycleBox/inde...
It looks interesting - I would want to see how it works in practice.
Some people really like bike lanes. Along major arterials, it probably works better - places where the traffic volume or the traffic speed is high enough that it gets harder for a bicycle to take the lane. As you say, the box may help in such situations..
Take an AARP driving course. Your vision and reflexes are about half of what they were when you were 18. So, at 55, I would say (personnal opinion only) that it is NOT the time to switch to a motorcycle.
In my garage is a 300cc Honda scooter that does 90mpg and 95mph ( though probably not at the same time ), a 125cc Honda scooter ( 110 mpg and 65 mph ) and a folding electric bike that sits at 15mph with no pedalling for 20 miles. Outside is a rarely used 1600cc car.
I used to have a 1300cc bike, a 2500cc V6 and the 1600cc ... bikes rule as far as I can see. No traffic queues and almost free to run.
It will be a terrible day when I can't afford the 6 gallons a month for commuting. The rest is pure discretion and whilst I have a serious nett worth I still choose not to waste it.
Thinking of chickens ... do Bassetts eat chickens ?
Size of Market for Motor Scooters
The motor scooter market is the fastest growing motorcycle segment in the U.S.
From Aug 2005.
Would be interesting to know how many scooters/motorcycles the auto industry could produce yearly under mandate/subsidy.
"The motor scooter market is the fastest growing motorcycle segment in the U.S."
Do they come with extra-wide seats and beefy suspension ? I would be interested to know the cultural differences between, say, southern Italy/Spain and the sunnier climes of the USA. One chooses scooters en-masse the other not.
Is it down to aspiration ? Safety ? Cheap petrol ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PmuHWPZSkY
I choose a motorcycle over a scooter for the many 4WD roads here in southern Colorado. No reason to cut yourself off from the majority of roads. A dual-sport motorcycle is a high-clearance SUV with 80mpg. A scooter is a low-clearance Prius with 120mpg.
I gave up on the car culture 3 years ago. I bought a Piaggio BV500, yes a 500 CC scooter. I weight 300 lbs and am 6'4" tall. I have no problems using this as my main commuting source. If I need a car I use ZIP Car. I used to scoot around DC and now I scoot around San Francisco. Even with the hills the bike has plenty of power and has a top speed of 100 MPH. I have been on the 101 and 280 with no problems.
Once I did the math it made no sense to own a car when I can rent a car by the hour and not have to pay gas or insurance. Plus I have lots of great cars to choose from. ZIP Car is an awesome service. If you live in a large metropolitan area chances are there are ZIP Cars near you or soon will be.
Along this line of thinking...the Scout signs (city electronic message boards) around the Kansas City Metro area having been displaying many messages like "Watch out for motorcycles", "This week is Motorcycle Awareness Week", and "Share the road with motorcycles".
This started happening about a month ago and never noticed them saying that before.
Perhaps KC city officials are expecting more motorcycle riders than usual this spring and summer.
Interesting. I'd love to be riding a motorcycle in KC, but the drivers here are so clueless I feel like I'd be taking my life in my hands...
I ride a motorcycle all over the country and rarely have any issues with other vehicles. In fact, most cars seem to give me extra room.
This week was the first time I saw those messages also. But, Kansas has been on a motorcycle awareness campaign for at least a couple of years. It was a big deal when I got my license renewed last year (posters at DMV and questions on the test).
Durandal - Where do you live?
i have bought a basic honda rebel and have been teaching myself to ride it.
i have to say it's interesting experience.
I'm tellin' ya, go have a look at the Japanese Kei vehicles, that's where we are heading. 660 cc (most turbo charged) and can fulfill most of what we do for every day personal transportation.
Unfortunately, the U.S. can't import anything less than 25 years old, so it is impracticable. In Canada the limit is 15 years and we can buy some very good condition used imported cars. 4 wd, funky stereos, what more do you need?
And if you want to reply about the safety with regards to the heavier passenger vehicles out there, don't. I will rip your head off!
I know most of us have been waiting for this...wait no longer!
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/05/08/its-happened-boy-hit-by-hybrid-mom-bl...
I was walking down the middle of a dirt country road when a hybrid came up behind me. I never heard it. He was nice enough to slow down though. I don't walk in the middle anymore.
Rick
One of the things that I found interesting about this is that the car did its job. These 2nd generation Prii were built according to a newer (not yet implemented, I believe) regulatory style that's supposed to protect pedestrians from collisions. Cow catcher, if you will. Rather than knocking them down to the ground and then proceeding to run them over, it scoops them and funnels them across the hood (with no sharp edges, and enough space between the sheet metal and underlying structure to absorb the impact).
Why don't they just add some device to the car, giving off engine imitating sound at low speeds? This should cost a buck or two and will end this stupidity once and for all.
How about people look where the hell they're going ? Seriously we have to ADD noise to our environment ??!
So, 800k Priuseses on the road and 1 no-injury accident and we all start panicking. Jeeeeeez. I bet more people caught Salmonella from organic eggs on the day of this 'news story'.
Fewer cars and Silent cars, please. And guide dogs for blind people. Stupid people should just avoid the streets altogether.
Don't forget the giant SUVs running over children in the drive way.
You could always drive with the window open and go "b-b-bbbbph-b-b-b-bbbbb-bbbphph". Don't forget to shift gears.
Really, sorry someone got hit, but knocking vehicles because they don't make enough noise? What a sad lot we have become.
Did you read the comments? One of the commenters said he/she would use a recording of a herd of buffalo to fulfill the "noise requirement" being proposed in congress. LMAO.
HR 5734 made me so mad I decided if I see a white cane I'm gonna honk the heck out of my horn and yell "Hey! watch out - it's a hybrid!"
Seriously, don't know about the driver of the Prius in the article, but I know my car is quiet and am extra careful when in electric mode and pedestrians are around.
Probably, the kid rode out into the street and in front of the Prius. I'll bet lack of noise had nothing to do with it.
There have been silent electric cars around for decades, and a lot of conventional cars are very quiet at low speeds. This is more "hassle the hybrids" stuff.
PHEVs and BEVs will be quiet at much higher speeds. Even the Prius can be in electric up to 30MPH IIRC, and this is not exactly a safe speed. A device producing low not-irritating warning sound can be helpful to pedestrians... I have been a "100% pedestrian" long enough to know this is important.
Robert Heinlein foresaw this problem years ago - his solution was to broadcast the sound of a Model T Ford from the electric vehicle!
I think legislation will happen, to set minimum audible sound from vehicles - let's' hope they are not as annoying as the various ring tones!
This is terrible. one great thing about electric cars is the prospect of the end of traffic noise. You could live next to a main road without bieng driven mad. The insane regulators strike again.
This is unjustified. ICE noise is proportional to engine speed, so a vehicle traveling with 60mph will produce roughly 6 times the noise of one driving with 10Mph (also with higher frequency and more irritating).
There is no reason this to be made the case for electric vehicles; they can set the sound output to be the same at all speeds, just to alert the nearby passengers. All vehicles may just be "humming" like a 10Mph car at all speeds.
The Prius can be silent at any speed. It's called gliding: ease off the gas and the ICE shuts off.
So long as it is slightly downhill, or you are OK with decelerating, as in pulse-and-glide driving or coming up to a stop.
At higher speeds (>42mph) it is harder to keep the electric motor off (as indicated by the display) but the mpg indicated is 99.9mpg, which is as high as my 2004 display will read.
I love it when there is little traffic on HWY 17 in the Santa Cruz Mtns (my old commute) and my battery fills partway down and I can glide all the way past the reservoir into Los Gatos. Would sure like to add more battery capacity for a longer glide!
Best vehicle I have ever had.
An SUV requires more braking distance than a smaller car. Those driving light trucks, SUV's, and minivans were more likely to kill others in crashes.
http://www.net-monster.com/blather_suvs_part1.html
The large vehicle concept may have caused more fatalities than would have been prevented if people were driving smaller cars. Due to poor handling of SUV's (rolling, greater stopping distances, etc.) the SUV driver was more likely to be in an accident.
$126 crude = $3 per gallon add 75 cents and you have the avg price of gas.
$180 crude = $4.28 per gallon add 75 cents and you have the avg price for $5 gas.
Remember though that crack margins have been crushed in the last year.
See Tesoro, Valero for details.
By $180, there will be riots.
Montreal is currently at $5.11 US a gallon and small scale riots have only occurred because of the performance of the Habs-the gasoline price hasn't been able to motivate the mob. Here in Toronto we are at $4.73 and there are zero signs of price effects on demand.
Here in Vancouver, I paid $4.96/gal for regular grade two days ago. At about $3.85/gal just across the border in Bellingham, WA, it's a steal.
-best,
Wolf
Except you will burn off the difference driving from Vancouver to Blaine, and burn even more in the Peace Arch border crossing line ups. Then, you'll have to put up with the storm trooper wanna-be DHS guards that are protecting the nation from rampant Canadian produce entering the country.
No guff, I saw a customs agent giving a Canadian truck driver grief over two bananas and an orange. "It's my lunch he exclaimed!" I'm sure Osama was hiding in one of those bananas. It's f&^ked up I can tell you, real bonkers.
Ah yes, we must protect ourselves from the import of Canadian oranges, lest we upset citrus growers in Florida. ;-)
LOL. So true. I especially enjoy the guards who walk up and down the lines of cars with their dogs and little pry bars, banging on cars, climbing in pickup beds, searching trunks, and so on. I've been in those Peace Arch parking lots wayyy too many times.
-best,
Wolf
75 cents = 45 cents for taxes, 10 cents for retail and transport, and 20 cents for crack margin.
One thought which just occurred to me is this: Many of the gasoline retailers also sell other stuff in mini-marts. They have been able to sell gasoline at rock bottom prices then make a profit on the inside sales. But, with gas prices rising ever higher, the mini-marts may not be able to sell enough higher stuff to make that profit. As a result, they may actually need to raise their gas prices above their costs to turn a profit. The result? Even higher gasoline prices.
One of my usual gas stops used to be the lowest price source for gasoline. Yesterday, they were the highest I saw, although local prices had just been bumped yet again, after declining a bit over the past couple of weeks. They set the price at $3.69 for regular. I would expect that we will soon think this price to be cheap, as $4/gallon is within spitting distance.
E. Swanson
Then the state police get involved.
As in, who authorized this "unreasonable" price increase.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/energy/gas-prices.html
What goes into the price of gasoline?
Last Updated April 24, 2008
All four Atlantic provinces regulate retail gasoline prices. In Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador, regulatory boards set maximum prices every two weeks in response to market conditions. In P.E.I., retailers must justify proposed gas price increases.
The increasingly underfunded state police might not have the manpower to get involved. In Oregon, at least on the county level, the public safety budget is the most vulnerable to being cut. I wouldn't be surprised if this is also the case at state level.
This is actually a lynch pin in my thinking for post peak. Seriously reduced law enforcement will enable a number of things. The "back forty crop" or the still, even just the ability to put anything on the road that's left that I want. It's actually why I like Maine, we're almost there already. I see an actual police car maybe once every 6 months. Some lucrative possibilities out there.
Doing security at the UofA graduation yesterday.
I commented that my Grandmother always carried a 1/2 pint
of Wild Turkey and a gun in her purse.
"It's actually why I like Maine, we're almost there already. I see an actual police car maybe once every 6 months. Some lucrative possibilities out there."
The above was the reason.
This may not be the best site for this question but what are people doing, if anything to cut back on their gas consumption? We drive as little as possible and when we do drive, we drive a Prius. We also have most of our food delivered.
We combine trips to the max so we would never just go into town for one errand unless it was an emergency. About the only thing left for us would be to move as we do live in the mountains. We are looking but it is going to take awhile because my wife is chemically sensitive and must minimize noxious fumes. In the mean time, there is not much else we can do to cut gas use so we will just have to eat whatever increases occur.
We don't have to commute so that is an obvious plus.
We also simply refuse to take a long distance trip by car and although this limits us as we plan to take all future long distance trips by AMTRAK. Our next trip will be from Denver to San Francisco, starting Monday.
Maybe there could be some kind of poll although, no doubt, the group that reads this site is probably not representative.
Carpool into town with neighbors and/or friends?
I bought a smaller car. Even though I liked having a bigger one, I didn't really need it.
I am staying in my small apartment in walking distance of work, stores, etc., even though most of my friends have bought houses in the suburbs or exburbs.
I never drove a lot in the first place, so I haven't really had to cut back. I do go on a road trip maybe twice a year, and I'm still doing that.
One thing I have changed: I try not to keep a lot of junk in the car. Just to keep the weight down.
If weather permits, I ride my motorcycle instead of taking the car. 80mpg is pretty good. Better than a Prius, even! (My Civic will get 44mpg on an average day.)
We are trying to plan and limit the household to one trip to town (50 mile round trip) a week, since we are retired.
I just threw down on an EV conversion kit for a Chevy S-10. My employer appears receptive to allowing me to charge at work at the already installed charging station. I'll keep you all posted on the project as it develops.
May you all have peace during the coming chaos.
Here in the UK the choice of cars that will do 60 mile per UK gallon (50mpg US) or more is growing fast. They are mainly diesels but the number of gas models is growing. They're ultra ultra compact by US standards and a squish for four adults but they do make fuel go a long way. Prices for basic variants in the UK start at around £7,000.
Look for simpler variants with small steel wheels - tyres/tires are mostly made from you-guessed-it and are just one of the thousands of everyday components whose cost will be going up along with the oil price.
I have expanded my "walkable distance" to about 1.25 miles. My cobbler is about 1.25 miles away and not along the streetcar line (there is a bus line with erratic service) and I need to half sole another pair of shoes#.
My goal this year is <60 gallons of diesel (excluding hurricane evacs) and <3,000 kWh. I am trending towards <40 gallons (and <2,000 kWh). By far the lowest in my adult life.
Best Hopes for Fuel Efficiency,
Alan
# I wonder if my cobbler bill will exceed my fuel bill ?
I find 2,000kWh per annum amazing - can you really run a household pulling only 228 watts every hour of the year? Don't you even run an electric refrigerator? Impressive Alan.
I think this is the replacement refrigerator for the model I bought (417 kWh/year, best 387 kWh/year)
http://www.sears.com/shc/s/p_10153_12605_04677922000P?vName=Appliances&c...
I also have a Friedrich window heat pump. Replacement version is YS09L10 EER (lower than SEER) of 12.
http://www.friedrich.com/products/LineModels.php?line=TTHP
A Mac Mini computer (31 watts when Airport is turned off) with LED screen, CFL & LED lighting (differ