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DrumBeat: May 26, 2008
Posted by Gail the Actuary on May 26, 2008 - 8:52am
Kunstler OpEd in the WaPo: "Wake Up, America. We're Driving Toward Disaster"
I detect in this strident plea the desperate wish to keep our "Happy Motoring" utopia running by means other than oil and its byproducts. But the truth is that no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used French-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future. We have to make other arrangements.
The public, and especially the mainstream media, misunderstands the "peak oil" story. It's not about running out of oil. It's about the instabilities that will shake the complex systems of daily life as soon as the global demand for oil exceeds the global supply.
TOD:C News and TOD:ANZ News.
The Illusion of Vast Undeveloped US Oil Reserves by Richard Blanchard
I frequently hear calls for all federal offshore waters to be opened to development, as if that will be our salvation. The most geologically favorable areas off the Atlantic coast have been explored in the past with no significant discoveries. If Atlantic federal waters were opened for development, it’s likely that no oil or next to no oil would ultimately be extracted. The same would be the case for Pacific waters from north-central California north to the Canadian border as well as around most of Alaska. . . .
The Bush administration has opened large areas of Bristol Bay (Alaska), NPR-A (Alaska), western federal lands and the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. In the case of Bristol Bay, oil exploration occurred there some years ago without finding any significant oil. The administration is also attempting to reopen the Chuchi Sea (Alaska) to oil development. Contrary to what one hears or reads from the media, a lot of federal lands and water have been opened for oil exploration and development in recent years.
China oil giant in takeover talks with Canadian energy firm
Chinese oil giant CNOOC is in talks with Canadian-based Talisman Energy over a possible takeover deal, a report in Hong Kong said Monday. CNOOC, China's third largest oil company, is in discussions that could lead to asset sales or a complete takeover, the South China Morning Post said citing unnamed sources. The report also said that energy giant PetroChina was looking at taking a stake in Santos, the third largest oil and gas company in Australia.
Saudi Khursaniyah oilfield not pumping yet - Aramco
MANAMA (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's Khursaniyah oilfield expansion project is not yet pumping, but large parts of its 500,000 barrels per day capacity are ready, an official at state oil giant Saudi Aramco said on Sunday.
The world's top oil exporter had planned to bring Khursaniyah online in December. The expansion is the largest single boost to global oil capacity for several years.
‘US nuclear fuel-supply assurances political not legal’
A US Congressional report has added a new twist to the stalled India-US civil nuclear deal by suggesting that Washington’s nuclear fuel-supply assurances to India are “political, rather than legal, obligations”. The US State Department apparently told lawmakers about the “political” nature of its assurances to India in a balancing act aimed at assuring them that the bilateral 123 agreement finalised last July to implement the nuclear deal is consistent with the enabling US law, the Hyde Act.
CEO of NOC says Libya's oil production will reach around 3 million barrels by 2012
Libya's oil production will top around 3 million barrels a day by 2012 according to Chairman of the Steering Committee of the National Oil Corporation Dr. Shukri Ghanem, who said production, is expected to reach 2 million by the end of this year.
"The Jamahiriya is producing 3 billion Cubic meters of gas daily which is seeking to double by 2012-2013 to 7 billion, Ghanem told reporters following the signing of an agreement for exploration and sharing between the National Oil Corporation and a consortium of Algerian Sonatrac and two Indian companies in Tripoli today.
Novatek CEO Mikhelson sees 2008 natural gas production up about 10 pct - report
MOSCOW (Thomson Financial) - OAO Novatek chief executive Leonid Mikhelson said at the annual general meeting (AGM) that his company will increase natural gas production by roughly 10 percent in 2008 and 20 percent in 2009, one of the shareholders present at the meeting told Interfax.
According to the company's annual report, production at Russia's second-largest natural gas producer fell 1.1 percent in 2007 to 28.25 billion cubic metres due to reduced production at the Eastern Tarkosalinskoye field.
Slick investors strike riches as they cash in on peak oil
Hedge funds are riding high on record oil prices - and now retail investors are joining them. . .
Michael Masters, a hedge fund manager, estimates the wall of money invested in commodity index-tracking funds has risen from $13bn in 2003 to $260bn by March this year. "Individually, these participants are not acting with malicious intent; collectively, however, their impact reaches into the wallets of every consumer," he warned. Critics call this "virtual hoarding" and point to the surplus of current supply as evidence that the futures market has become separated from the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Fuel suppliers demand airlines pay cash in advance
The need to put up money before delivery of fuel is a huge financial burden that has been shifted from the oil companies to the airlines. . . .
“The airlines can’t afford it. Traditionally, oil companies extended credit for 14 or 21 days and some as long as 30 days. Now, most American airlines are on prepay. South West is one of a few likely to still get credit.”
Sinopec says crude tax rebate barely covers loss
Top Asian oil refiner Sinopec Corp (0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research)(SNP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is still reeling from refining losses despite a government tax incentive, its chairman said on Monday, as global crude prices have charged above $130 a barrel.
Prolonged losses could force refiners to curb production, resulting in fuel shortages in the world's second-largest oil consumer, a prospect Beijing is loath to see as the Olympic Games is just two months away.
"The (crude tax) rebate cannot cover all of our losses," Chairman Su Shulin told reporters at the sidelines of the company's shareholder meeting.
Moscow Doubles Investment in Energy
Chubais and Mayor Yury Luzhkov, a longtime political adversary, signed an amended version of the power grid's investment plan, under which 898 billion rubles ($39 billion) will be spent in the capital through 2010, up from the 2006 agreement between City Hall and UES to spend 430 billion rubles on upgrades and new infrastructure.
The signing took place at the opening of a 500-kilowatt Siemens-produced power unit at the Beskudnikovo transformer station on the northern outskirts of Moscow.
"The money will first of all come from the budgets of the companies controlling the networks," Chubais said. "Another part of the investment will be funded by tariffs and the fee for connection to the grid."
Fourteen major elements of the Moscow electricity distribution network will be financed by state-run VTB, the country's second-largest bank, Luzhkov said Saturday without elaborating.
Cheap Dollar Means Expensive Oil
Back in December 2002, one dollar equaled one euro. But that exchange rate didn't last. The dollar was on its way down, a trend that had started more than a year earlier, and has lasted, with occasional oscillations, to this day.
On the day in 2002 that the value of a dollar was exactly the same as the value of a euro, the price of a barrel of oil was, therefore, the same in dollars and euros -- about 25. Since that day, it's like the two currencies have traded on two different planets.
Kiev Seeks Joint Talks On Gas Trade, WTO
MINSK — Ukraine said Friday that it would hold talks on Russian natural gas supplies with Moscow simultaneously with negotiations on Russia's membership in the World Trade Organization.
"I believe that simultaneously preparing a strategic agreement on Russian gas supplies to Ukraine … there will be negotiations on the Russian Federation's accession to the WTO," Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko told journalists after meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Gas Price Protests hit 50 Russian Cities
Motorists in about 50 cities across the country protested rising gasoline prices Saturday and called on the government to take measures to punish producers of substandard fuel.
Media reports said the protests had anywhere from a few dozen participants, including in Yekaterinburg, Kaliningrad, and Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, to as many as 200 in Moscow.
Hybrid Drivers Compete for Best Mileage
In the Prius and other hybrids with energy displays, drivers can see what specific actions mean for their mileage. In some ways, it is like children learning to color in between the lines, with the teacher standing over their shoulders. Aggressive acceleration after a stoplight -- that's bad. The monitor will show mpg going down. Suddenly slamming the brakes -- also bad. Coasting to a stop -- good. That tactic lets the engine shut down, saving gas. Hills -- oh, they are real bad.
George Soros: rocketing oil price is a bubble
Speculators are largely responsible for driving crude prices to their peaks in recent weeks and the record oil price now looks like a bubble, George Soros has warned.
The billionaire investor's comments came only days after the oil price soared to a record high of $135 a barrel amid speculation that crude could soon be catapulted towards the $200 mark. . . . . . . . . . . However, Mr Soros warned that the oil bubble would not burst until both the US and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically.
Ras laffan • Pearl Village, the newly-built 170-hectare complex accommodating contractors and over 35,000 workers for the Pearl Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) project was opened here yesterday at the Ras Laffan Industrial City (RLIC).
Fuel hikes sink service stations
Johannesburg - Ever-rising fuel prices are putting small service station owners out of business, says the Fuel Retailers Association (FRA). "We are beginning to see a situation where for almost every price increase, a retailer goes bankrupt," says FRA director Peter Morgan.
He says between 10% and 15% of the 4 800 petrol stations countrywide are marginal operations teetering on the verge of failure. These are mainly service stations in low- income areas like townships.
High gas prices give boost to small town bus plant
Soaring fuel prices are proving to be a pain for most people in the country, but they may have helped save the jobs of hundreds of workers in North Dakota's oldest town. The Motor Coach Industries plant is the biggest employer in Pembina - about a quarter the residents in the town of 640 work there. Four years ago, it was struggling to stay open.
Now, as more people across the U.S. shun gas-guzzling vehicles for public transportation, bus ridership is up. Transit systems from Houston to New York City are mulling expansion to keep pace. . . . . . . . MCI will begin delivering the first of 102 hybrid diesel-electric buses this summer to Houston's transit system, under a contract worth about $80 million. Another 126 diesel-only buses are being shipped out to New York City's transit system in a deal worth $67 million.
Rising costs lead farmers to go high tech
With auto-steering, a farmer manually drives the perimeter of a field to map its boundaries so the GPS gadget can then direct the tractor to carve near-perfectly straight rows. A few systems will even turn the tractor around at the end of each row. By cutting down on overlap, the system saves fuel, and it means the same ground won't be planted twice or sprayed unnecessarily with fertilizer or pesticides.
Barbre estimates that using auto-steering on his 4,000 acres - split about evenly between soybeans and corn - has cut his fuel costs up to 5 percent. "That's maybe 30, 50 cents an acre," he said. "Over 4,000 acres, that adds up."
Gazprom will receive Sakhalin-3 site without tender
Gazprom will receive the Kirinskoe deposit, part of Kirinsky Block ("Sakhalin-3" project) without tender. The license on the Kirinskoe deposit will be transferred to the monopoly in a few months. On the territory of the Kirinsky block there was discovered so far only one small gas deposit with reserves of less than 100 billion cubic meters.
This deposit is on the list of federal value sites which have strategic value for gas supply of the Russian Federation and Gazprom is thought to be creating the resource base for rolling out its program of Far East gasification.
Commodity Prices Soar, But Are They in a Bubble?
In February, the board of the California Public Employees' Retirement System, or Calpers, the largest pension fund in the U.S., authorized putting as much as 3% of its $240 billion portfolio in commodities. Hedge-fund manager Michael Masters told a U.S. Senate committee last week that institutional investors "are one of, if not the primary, factors affecting commodities prices today."
But Bianco Research's Mr. Simons say that because the final buyers of commodities are consumers rather than investors, the role of speculation is limited. "Commodities, unlike financial assets, cannot take on hope values very much," he says. "At some point, the price gets to the point where the buyer walks away."
India: Oil firms are weeks away from bankruptcy
There was no diesel for a day at a gas station in north India recently. The public sector oil companies are slowing down the issue of new gas connections to households. The private sector oil companies are closing down petrol pumps and exporting petrol and diesel. Kerosene is not easily available in the public distribution system; the open market rate is around Rs 30 a litre when the official rate is under Rs 10.
If you think these are isolated events, think again. A fuel shortage looms ahead of the nation as the oil companies rapidly head towards bankruptcy.
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Two Memorial Day Dallas Morning News Editorials:
Editorial: The end of cheap oil?
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/editorials/storie...
Editorial: Push rail transit now
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/editorials/storie...
Has the posse been assembled for the writer of the first piece yet?
Rod Dreher, one of a tiny number of Peak Oil aware journalists willing to write about it, wrote the editorial. An excerpt from JHK's Memorial Day Essay is shown below:
www.kunstler.com
In most places where people live, a small fraction of the energy they spend on getting out of where they are could be spent on making their places pretty again. Parts of Texas were absolutely gorgeous -- and could be again. If everyone just stayed home and tended their gardens ....
Wishful, maybe Pollyanna thinking for an early morning on Memorial Day, but I don't see a declining energy regime as all bad -- there is a potential seriously positive upside.
I agree, NeverLNG.
While the change may be painful, a quieter, more inward-looking existence certainly has its rewards. The consumerist treadmill--a huge public relations success brought about by over a hundred years of incessant propaganda--may not be all it's cracked up to be.
That said, it nevertheless may be human nature that makes consumerism and our Baroque modern culture, a culture in which every waking moment is filled to excess with a whirlwind of activity or entertainment, so appealing. As Eric Hoffer observed:
"The individual's most vital need is to prove his worth, and this usually means an insatiable hunger for action. For it is only the few who can acquire a sense of worth by developing and employing their capacities and talents. The majority prove their worth by keeping busy."
Grand theories about "human nature" need careful examination.
It seems to me from what I can read about "traditional" societies (which I guess means "pre-industrial") people don't seem to have to prove their worth. In fact, that is largely a Calvinist idea, designed to discover who was "saved", but easily distorted into creating a consumer society to demonstrate "worth" and by extension, "salvation" through consumption.
Eric Hoffer is probably right about Western Europe and North America since the 18th century. I'm not sure if it generalizes.
Lots of people really like to stay home and fix up their places -- even now.
What you have read about traditional societies seems to be at variance with that which I have read.
Their need to prove their worth is articulated in their initiation rites, for a start.
Those who did not cut the mustard had a short life expectancy probably and a miserable life certainly.
Well, true enough for the children. Once they have been admitted to adult society, I suspect the rules change, except for the leadership.
However-- this discussion is probably not appropriate for the oil drum.
it nevertheless may be human nature that makes consumerism
A lot of energy was expended to train Americans to be voracious consumers. See this article from Orion:
The Gospel of Consumption:
Thank you, lilith--A great article that not only gives a thoughtful critique of American baroque culture but also explains how we got here.
I'll file it away in my favorites and use it for future reference.
See also Paul Graham's most excellent essay on Stuff.
("...What I didn't understand was that the value of some new acquisition wasn't the difference between its retail price and what I paid for it. It was the value I derived from it. Stuff is an extremely illiquid asset....")
RE JHK Memmorial Weekend Post
"This is certainly the golden heart of the great wish out there, as the empire of Happy Motoring begins to run down on $4 gasoline. It seems inconceivable that a society so bold as to put men on the moon (fer crissake) can't overcome such a prosaic problem as finding something other than oil byproducts to run our cars on."
This is the heart of the issue for a lot of people. I gave a Peak Oil Presentation last week and a gentleman who said he'd heard of it smiled knowingly and told me that I forgot about hydrogen fuel cells.
"They'll get that going when they need to..."
How do you explain to people who have never known hunger (arriving home famished because you ran in a Labor Day 5K doesn't count)or need the concept of peak oil and that that means the end of the world as they know it.
BTW, the Phoenix mars lander has touched down successfully and is sending back pictures: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-82
Leave it to "JHK" to get the cynicism just right. And you know, he is right... rather than public parks dictated by wise zoning rules, we have (in my area) car dealerships, car repair facilities, and restaurants jammed up against each as tight as could be arranged and to maximize the dollar return on the land. How could a society be healthy when that is the environment into which it places its children, and forces its adults to live?
I recently rented the Film Mosquito Coast with Harrison Ford and River Phoenix. At the beginning of the film Ford's Charachter Allie Fox explains to his 12 year old son via a rant the truth about America. For a 26 year old story by Paul Theroux I think that The unfortunate Mr Fox may have been prophetic after all. Worth a look if just to see Harrison Ford:
Re: JHK's Memorial Day Essay
One thing I rarely see JHK talk about (though I don't read him every week) is population. "World Made by Hand" sounds like a good idea and all, but the planet isn't going to support 6.5e9 people that way. As we have discussed here, the biggest edible bang for the buck (or barrel) is still industrial agriculture. If we can't feed the residents of those suburbs, the last thing anyone will care about is poor taste in architecture. And all the rapid transit, high-rise condos, low-rise condos, or 19th century-esque farmhouses etc that you care to build, will not really help that much.
JHK is the ultimate cynic. In World Made By Hand the world has far less people due to starvation and pandemics. Also human life has little value.
Sounds like a probable future then. Maybe I'll get his book, there might be just time enough to read it before TSHTF.
One thing I rarely see JHK talk about (though I don't read him every week) is population.
The Peak Oil gurus and talking heads have taken a page from the Environmentalist and Global Warming talking heads and gurus - they avoid the population growth issue like it was the Black Plague.
And yet...
"talking about energy solutions without talking about the population problems is just like mopping the floor with the faucets running on. So that is #1 problem."
Tad Patzek
I thought this statement from the first editorial was a bit strange: We might not be at the end of the cheap oil era yet, but when that day comes, its dawn will look something like what we're living through today.
So far, I haven't seen anyone change their ways -- we're still buying big, driving long, accelerating hard -- and living large. If changes are being made, they're not being made where they are apparent. And implying that this may not be the real dawn just hurts the efforts of those who need funding to work on fixes -- investors won't invest if they think PO is a sham, or a future event (isn't 30 years from now being bandied about?).
I think the editorial above is saying in a diplomatic way "we can't absolutely prove it yet, but we're probably at the end of cheap oil. It certainly looks like the end of cheap oil. Maybe we should do something, huh?"
The big debate about whether now is the end of cheap oil can be divided into below ground and above ground. The below ground debate is all over Hubbert's theory vs new technology and new models. The above ground debate is all over the oil price signals - the big speculation debate essentially.
I think the anti-peakers have already lost the debate in the below ground arena. You have the non-peakoil world now saying that we probably won't have everincreasing supplies of cheap oil for decades. But we still hear a loud chorus of speculation claims. The above ground debate forces the anti-peakers to prove the massive oil price signal over the last 5 years to be pure speculation - a tough row to hoe. It's much easier for them to try to show just a recent, short term, crazy climb in oil prices to be just a "paper oil" anomaly. But even here, they are forced to explain things like this:
This chart shows the yearly patterns of oil price increase compared to the yearly pattern of a slow oil inventory build over the last 5 years. Both patterns show a parallel build in oil price and inventory as would be expected from the historical norm of climbing price, supply concern, and stockpiling. But in October, 2007 this pattern was abruptly changed. Short term inventory figures are not a good way to guage the oil supply/demand condition because of strong seasonal changes, transient refinery issues, etc. But there does seem to be a big pattern change that occured last October that would suggest the crazy run-up of the last few months to be perhaps more physical barrel related than paper barrel related.
I notice today Soros says oil prices are a bubble...
Yeah--all that oil that's been sold at such high prices is going to come back on the market because of margin calls and interest rate resets.
When it does, will the price at the pump go down?
And so what if it is? Are we going back to $40 per barrel? Nope. $60 per barrel? I highly doubt it.
If there is a bubble, I would expect us to fall no more than half of the current price, so I'd bet on $65 as the absolute floor, with prices in the $80-$100 range more likely. The only thing that can drive prices lower than that in the short term (in my opinion) is an economic collapse so huge that it makes the Great Depression look like a picnic. Note that Soros points to something like that as well, claiming this recession will be larger than any since the Great Depression. He doesn't come out and say that it will be worse than the Great Depression but Soros has been betting against the dollar and assuming negatives for a few years now. He was just a little early on his assumptions.
If he is betting on a dollar collapse I can't see how that will help oil prices fall.
Should there also be a Soros, like there is a Yergin!
What will high-priced fossil fuel do to the cost of launching and maintaining communication satellites, cellphone towers, undersea cables, fiberoptic cables on land? What will Google's server farms cost with $300/bbl oil?
Do the great minds of TOD believe that this communication network, let alone the transportation network, can be sustained?
Do the great minds of TOD believe that this communication network, let alone the transportation network, can be sustained?
The transport network as we know it in the USA today? No. Goods will, however, be transported.
If the end comes to the consumption culture then many of the ad supported "free" things will come to an end. Wankers like the guy who set up whyblockfirefox.com will be a gone like his website about firefox.
The communication network, in some form, will continue up until man no longer makes crystal silicon. (because if humanity looses what ICs can do, tubes will look like a goal to reach from the backslide) Rolling blackouts or spotty maintence will just mean a return to UUCP and wireless gear will be the 'routing around' of broken telephone lines/way to expensive telephone lines.
Rural areas will continue to be able to grasp the brown stinky end of the stick.
Having toured a tube factory many decades ago (it was in Owensboro, KY) I can say with confidence that natural gas is a good thing to have when you're manufacturing tubes. Because mostly they are a lot of fancy glassblowing. And it'll be hard to maintain much of a network based on tubes.
If we lose the ability to process crystal silicon, we may just be looking at a return to the telegraph. Steampunk-looking brass key clickety clacking away ... :)
I don't think rockets use diesel. I believe the SRBs, such as the ones on the Shuttle, use aluminum powder and ammonium percolate powder mixed in a Polybutadiene Acrylonitrile copolymer gue.
Google invests substantial cheddar in renewables and seems intent to make bigger investments.
I can guarantee you the last barrel of oil will go into and F-22 or the tractor that tows the shuttle to the launch pad.
I ride DART rail daily, and it has been standing room only for some time. They are working on modifications to the stations that will allow the use of lower floor cars that increase capacity from 75 to 100 ppl/car. I haven't seen the new cars yet, but I'm skeptical that the increase will be that great, because people are already standing on the steps since they're always so full.
When I look at the DART website, the emphasis is clearly on adding miles, but other than the new cars, there's nothing about increasing the capacity of the existing lines. The only fix that I can see would be to modify the schedule to have them run every few minutes during peak hours. The way their budget process appears to work, I guess that will take several years.
Strategic Railcar Reserve i.e. More rolling stock "for emergencies" (along with beefed up transformers to power them) is Step #5 in my plan to reduce US Oil Use by 10% in 10 to 12 years. Useful for major, and minor, oil problems. And they last 40 years instead of one year.
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&It...
I have since gotten more aggressive.
Best Hopes,
Alan
BTW: On May 15th, UTA (Salt Lake City) just placed a massive order (with even larger options) for LRVs (Light Rail Vehicles). Larger than federal funding would normally allow for their system (the feds "save' money by strictly limiting the number of cars ordered (or built in New Orleans case) so there is no slack for better than expected ridership. This "over order" has created a bit of a stir in transit circles (almost all agencies want more rolling stock). But since Utah is deep red, perhaps ...
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/ap/2008/05/15/utah-a...
Semi-funny story. Minneapolis ridership on the Hiawatha line is much higher than expected. But even so, it drops in the winter, especially during cold snaps.
This was puzzling until someone realized that the average diameter of the average rider increases as temperatures drop, limiting the # that can be squeezed aboard. (See Tokyo for solution).
DART is apparently getting involved in the manufacturing of these cars. It's not clear why they don't just order them as well.
http://www.dart.org/news/news.asp?ID=789
Just thought you'd find it interesting.
Thanks !
These are not new cars. DART is going to take the existing cars and splice in a low floor section (easier boarding for wheelchairs, baby carriages, etc.) in the middle. I saw prototype in 2005.
Expect slower acceleration when full, the motors are not being upgraded I understand.
BTW, a better article on the UTA order (it mentions the option orders). Smart move ! If demand increases, UTA gets extra cars with short lead time, if not they resell cars to other agencies or do not exercise orders. This commonality with other cities also allows for future trades, common rebuild work, etc.
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news_view/article/2008/05/8445/siemens_ann...
Those station platforms are COLD. There is no place to hide to get out of the wind. They must have been designed to keep the homeless out by freezing them to death.
Good News! The governor and legislature came to an agreement and saved the funding for the next light rail line. It will connect the two cities (twin cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul) running down one of the oldest (and rather run down) commercial districts. They expect a huge boom in TOD development. Should be done in 2014.
And the price of gasoline on Opening Day, May 15th, 2014 will be $xx.xx/9 per gallon ?
It is VERY good to have these plans underway, because they are the first ones that can be built when the TSHTF !
Best Hopes for 7 Light Rail & Streetcar Lines operating in the Twin Cities on 5/15/14 !
Alan
Alan:
Maybe more important than entire railcars are just the undercarriage. I am assuming that any municipality could build a body shell and seating as needed, the undercarriage is the heavy metal that takes heavy industry, and could take a while to be made and delivered. The top part could be built out in a matter of days. It might not match the rest of the rolling stock, but there might be more important concerns.
Yes and no. New Orleans was the first transit agency in roughly 60 years (worldwide) to a build a series (7 then 24) of streetcars in-house and I was privileged to watch it from the inside. The trucks (the term you are looking for) came from Brookville Equipment and are an improved PCC design.
IMO, with someone else's designs, Lufkin Industry (source of 90% of the pumpjacks such as the one to grace the masthead of TOD) could build many thousands of rail trucks/year. Might cut into the pumpjack business though.
It is not that difficult to set up a shop to assembly rolling stock, but it requires people that know what the hell they are doing ! An almost unique virtue for New Orleans streetcars (see 60 year gap). Those people are few and far between IMHO.
BTW, the side body panels of the new New Orleans streetcars are 3/8" Corten plate up to the waist. Solid aluminum forgings (about 3" by 5" cross section) support the panels on the ends (slightly thinner curved panels there), etc. Very good safety rating.
Design life is 500 years.
Best Hopes for Metal Bending,
Alan
I live next to the train station in Oceanside/San Diego:
http://www.gonctd.com/sprinter_intro.htm
This took 20 years of planning to get done and after opening to little fanfare 2 months ago it is already too little too late. The suburban and exurban areas to the east beyond the reach of Sprinter are still inaccessible without auto transport. It is a pity that our transportation system not to mention our urban planners have been so short sighted for so long.
As JHK stated:
High cost rules out trams
CONGRATULATIONS !
I know that you had some influence on the editorial board of the DMN.
WELL DONE Jeffery !
Best Hopes,
Alan
In many respects, the small town where I was raised in Northern Illinois during the later half of the 50's was much like the towns I've heard described by people of my parents generation. The early 20th century was a time when agriculture was still local and there was a great deal of regional autonomy. Housing was affordable, you could walk to school, neighborhoods were safe and neighbors were closer, both in proximity and in terms of social behavior. A nearby commuter train could be used for those who worked in factories or offices up and down the shores of Lake Michigan. You could drive south or west and in less time than it takes us to drive to work today, you would be ‘out in the country' amidst an apparently endless vista of farmland. My family moved to Dallas, Texas in 1970. The transition was interesting, away from vestiges of regional autonomy I had grown up with, toward urban sprawl and entrenchment in car culture. The central Texas corridor was such a rapidly growing region; infrastructure was very new and reflected the less permanent minded, rapidly changing landscape and economics of cheap oil and gas.
The issue is quite complex, but it appears that at as liquid fuel-oil demand meets or exceeds supply, this car dependent, sprawling economic jungle gym we have constructed may no longer work, and though people will desperately seek to sustain this infrastructure and economic paradigm with alternative energy, at some we may want to revisit some of the living arrangements we had in the early twentieth century: A smaller ecological footprint per person, less energy and less resource use, and more regional and local autonomy. We will need more diversified local economic models when transportation fuels become relatively expensive, but living standards may actually be better for a given ecological footprint if modern technologies that have been developed during the cheap oil age are integrated into our new living approach.
Population is an important factor that should be considered too. In order to achieve sustainability for current population numbers, how much will living standards have to be reduced, in spite of technological advances? What will we find the carrying capacity to be, for a desirable – acceptable quality of living conditions? The region where I grew up is now no more sustainable or self sufficient than in Texas or anywhere else: Cities have been reduced to monolithic office complexes, the countryside has become saturated with widely dispersed single family housing, homes and offices are far distant and connected by a highly inefficient network of roads that can be clogged by a single accident, the labor for manufacturing has been exported overseas with material goods all imported by way of a continual stream of trucks and boats used to supply warehouse like stores that we can only reach by way of cars and freeways. Even if regional autonomy is rebuilt over time and a diverse energy alternatives are employed, I still wonder if it will be enough to sustain the numbers we currently have, or will have as the population of the world continues to grow exponentially. Perhaps our energy, resource & environmental challenges are solvable, rather the question might be: Can people cooperate sufficiently to change sufficiently and soon enough to achieve sustainability at an acceptable standard of living, before nature imposes, perhaps, a much lower standard of living on it’s own terms?
Now here's real demand destruction:
http://www.komotv.com/news/local/19255629.html
I posted this late in yesterday's drumbeat but I hope I can post it nearer the top today as it shows exactly how politicians and economists got us here.
Let them eat bytes - Tony Blair, Davos 2000
Insane, Insane, Insane.
My car doesn't run on broadband Mr. Blair.
Bad philosophy, bad reasoning, bad logic, bad conclusions. Wonder a who's feet he sat - Bill Gates?
As I asked in a thread above-- what does Mr. Blair or anyone else think this "information highway" runs on? The increasing energy costs to deploy and maintain the communication infrastructure will certainly have something to do with its future availability?
When I make the unfortunate mistake of turning on CNBC, I used to hear that a lot as the oil prices were heading up. "Ahh, there's no risk to the wider economy - our economy isn't dependent on oil as it was in the 70's." They were repeating it like a mantra. "Our economy is more diversified and oil is only a small portion of that..." I haven't been hearing them saying it lately though.
I seem to recall a calculation on that which said that at USD 162??? the effect would be the same on the economy(percentage of GNP same). Maybe financial sense wrap up or similar. So we are pretty close to the same price effect from 1980.
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK
The Hirsch Report (PDF)
To put it another way, every barrel of oil supports more dollars of GNP than it did in the 1970s. Is this good news, or bad?
IF THE US ECONOMY IS LESS SENSITIVE TO OIL PRICES TODAY, ……..WHAT ABOUT IMPORTED OIL VOLUME?
In 1980 US imported approximately 7 Mb/d of oil in 2006 this had increased to close to........... 14 Mb/d.
This according to BP Statistical Review 2007.
NGM2
Mighty fine macro economic analysis until they find out here in the good ol' N. of A. that diesel = food.
"Stocks slide ahead of long holiday weekend
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/
In the eyes of investors, soaring oil prices trump upbeat home sales data "
Finally the stock market begins to look like a reponsive instrument. I noticed here in San Diego the slide in home prices finally halted and sales are rising dramatically. Is this the end of housing blues?
IMO I would say that the suburban model may be at the end of it's day but people will need to live places and urban condos are making a huge comeback. I looked at 8 condos in Downtown San Diego over the weekend with a buyer and all but one had multiple offers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTCT7FI0rnJQ&refer=home
Crude Oil Rises a Second Day on Nigeria Attack, Mexico Output
May 26 (Bloomberg)
I think the article indicates April to April Mexican crude oil production fell 13%. Unless Mexico is consuming less, that 13% drop comes entirely from the ~50% of production that is exported. Exports must consequently fall 26%. Add to that any consumption increase and yearly exports should fall about 30%.
6 theoretical gas stations in various cities in USA:
1)Miami
2)LA
3)NYC
4)Chicago
5)Seattle
6)) Houston
WTI/NYMEX/RBOB spot oil and crude prices determine what Joe Six Pack pays at the pump. However we know from Upstream Online that there can be a 10-20 dollar spread from Brent to Mayas to Omani crude, etc.
Suppose the NYC gas station gets gas from the local refinery which comes from imported gas from Rotterdam and from crude they refined themselves out of Nigeria, Venzuela, etc. and in LA maybe Mexican crude and Korean gasoline. In Chicago they get Canadian crude from tar sands. Who cares what happens in Cushing Oklahoma except Jeffrey who lives in Houston? I mean why do we keep such a close eye on that WTI number even here in Hamburg and the pumps are adjusted accordingly? Iranian crude is hard to refine, Bonny light is like Assam tea was to my English grandma, the best stuff money can buy. So what gives? Taxes for price differentials certainly don't explain everything. So my question is I guess, is there a lot of local pricing due to local costs? Is gasoline fungible everywhere?
Well, why do people pay attention to the DJIA or the S&P 500? People want a simple number for what equities or commodities are doing.
Yes, different grades are priced according to their respective demands.
LA (and Seattle) have until recently obtained more of their crude from Alaska, but (at least for Seattle) a lot is now coming from Alberta. But they can get shipments of oil from anywhere, so a refinery in Seattle bidding for oil on the international market will exert price pressure everywhere including on WTI. Additional transportating costs will figure in what they are able to bid.
Right now, nobody lives on the 100 mile (oil) diet.
I was making a connection between your comments here and the comments up thread...not there is a connection...but hmmmm
Are you suggesting that the Tar Sands purveyors forgot to remove all of the mud before shipment?
I know...silly thought. Of course all this product goes through strict quality control!
I would argue South Louisiana does. Onshore and close offshore oil production, local refineries, we are certainly a net oil exporter to the rest of the USA.
Of course imported oil arrives, is refined and then shipped on.
Alan
Labour plans green revolution to slash energy prices and win back lost voters
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-plans-green-revolut...
Billions wasted on UN climate programme
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/26/climatechange.greenpol...
Beavers returning to UK after 400 years
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/26/endangeredspecies.cons...
Land prices offer farmers a rich harvest
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/may/26/ruralaffairs.food
Houston has lift-off as oil price rises
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/ccair1...
George Soros: rocketing oil price is a bubble
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnsoro...
Credit crisis halves volume of property deals
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnprop...
A quarter of workers 'face ruin if they lose their jobs'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1021846/A-quarter-workers-face-r...
Thin film solar manufacturing breakthrough
http://www.gizmag.com/thin-film-solar-modules-manufacturing/9378/
Specs here:
http://www.signetsolar.com/products/index.htm
Solar land use less than coal
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/5/25/124622/152
Geothermal power: a core climate solution
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/5/23/122356/190
Nuclear power is the logical choice
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/nuclear-power-is-the-logical-choice/2...
Aeroscraft ML866 technology demonstrator enters final assembly phase
http://www.gizmag.com/aeroscraft-ml866-technology-demonstrator-enters-fi...
Too much to respond to--
But the ML86 Super Sky Yacht is intriguing. I keep wondering about "peak helium", however -- it only seems to occur in a few natural gas deposits, and I have seen a few references to something other than an inexhaustible supply of the stuff. Seems like the proliferation of super-conducting MRI magnets alone would eat into the reserves. Where is all that helium going to come from?
Lack of helium is a genuine concern - being so light it floats to the top of the atmosphere and is stripped away by the solar wind.
However, if the principle of airships is proven, there is no reason why hydrogen should not be used - fire fears are greatly exaggerated - The Hindenburg fire was associated with the fabric. Legislators will look at proposals with a more tolerant eye when air travel is heavily restricted by fuel costs.
I posted these all together to help keep within the 300posts a day first page limit - if anyone is interested in the individual items they can refer to them.
The biggest eye-opener for me was the article comparing land use by solar thermal to coal once mining is taken into consideration.
If the solar plants are reliable, and if the math works out as it says in this article (and something like it a while back in Scientific American) then there is no reason to continue destroying Wyoming and Arizona and Kentucky and W.VA in the name of energy supply -- no reason except politics, that is. Coal and Oil own the government, and they aren't going to allow their investments to lose value. The "transition" to solar presumably will occur when it is profitable for Big Oil and Big Coal. It could easily occur tomorrow -- but it won't, of course.
I am a little more doubtful about the economics of solar thermal, at any rate for base load.
The schemes in Scientific American struck me as fantastic, as they relied on vast networks of transmission lines and compressed air, re-heated by the use of vast quantities of natural gas.
Still, current builds should tell us a lot more about the basic economics of large-scale generation.
For peaking PV power would do fine, and you don't need the vast arrays you do for thermal.
I like the schemes to build 2-10MW set ups and not have to transmit the power long distances or step it down.
IMHO the thinking about solar is backwards.
What makes much better sense from an efficiency standpoint is the installation of solar on existing bldgs and residences. This alows for higher efficiency and local use of energy. In So CA with incentives and Net metering laws it makes sense. The concentrated arrays and central generating systems are what has made us all slaves in the first place.
The Big thinking is the Big problem. Think Small - Think Local
Not everyone is thinking backwards.
If you look at the link I gave to Signet solar- or here:
http://www.gizmag.com/thin-film-solar-modules-manufacturing/9378/
Thin film solar manufacturing breakthrough
You will see that they are concentrating on thin-film silicon which can be coated on building materials.
The efficiency is only around 5% though.
Another alternative is to build small 2-10MW plants on the ground, which gives the a very cost effective solution.http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/04/solar-thermal-municipal-power.html
Next Big Future: Solar Thermal Municipal Power
Here's an interesting technology suitable for domestic use. I note that it was developed in conjuction with Napier University in Edinburgh and no doubt, Kerr Macgregor.
Kerr was one of a number of engineers in academia in Edinburgh, now reaching retirement, who concentrated on renewable energies after the oil shocks of the 1970's. Other notables include Stephen Salter of the University of Edinburgh who famously produced Salter's duck, a device for generating electricity from waves.
http://www.sunwarm.com/
Economy of scale issues, argue for fewer larger facilities. I know everyone wants to feel superior by having their residence independent of the grid -or at least energy neutral, but that isn't likely to be an efficient usage of limited solar power capital. The first thong you'll notice if you look into putting PV on your house, is the price of those pesky inverters. And utility intertie, which is needed to assurance your local power company that their linemen don't get electrocuted working of a supposedly off powerline that is charged by someones PV system. Then there is the maintainance of local expertise to keep the system running well. Is it worth it having to learn a bunch of stuff for a 2KW system? Especially in areas like concentrated solar (PV or thermal-electric) an efficient scale of operation is too large for residential applications. In any case with our electricity consumption roughly a third each residential/commercial/industrial, it doesn't really make much sense for nearly all the mind share to only be involved with just one class of consumer.
Of course these scales aren't huge, more like lots of medium scale systems.
I think the sweet spot is around the 2-10MW size - large enough to get economies of scale avoiding expensive small custom installations on rooftops and make it worthwhile for a technician to come out, but small enough to avoid large transmission costs.
There are several obvious problems with solar, of which the most obvious is intermitency. I know that this is obvious, but the sun doesn't shine at night! And people are still going to need heat or a/c, light, and refrigeration at a minimum. So central CSP seems the only reasonable alternative, as such a facility can store the enrgy effectively on an industrial scale.
As far as large install of small scale PV, what is being forgotten is that the power company providing base load is going to have to provide the energy during the good sunlight periods anyway, in order to provide coverage during poor periods, so the homeowners will have to pay for it whether they use it or not. And what does the power company do with the unused electricity?
Now I know I'll be told that they can store it in ____. However, that adds complexity and expense, which they will refuse to do or charge a lot extra for this service.
At the moment we don't know how to do solar whether thermal or any other as base load at any reasonable cost.
We will shortly be getting cost figures in as they are building large scale plants, but it should also be noted that water needs in the desert areas thermal needs siting in is a major problem, and costs as far as we know are still very high.
I prefer to base plans on what we know that we can do, and would use nuclear power for base-load and solar, mostly PV for peak load.
If you study the Scientific American grand plan for solar you will also see that it relies on compressed air for storage, and would use huge amounts of Natural gas to reheat it when it expands.
The economics of it currently make no sense, and we haven't even mentioned building the transmission grids.
If you use power sources where appropriate then the problem is manageable.
If costs move to give more practicality to solar thermal at a later date then plans could always be amended.
As a practical matter, when it comes to PV, you have got to think in terms of the PV panels just being battery chargers. Batteries buffer the intermittent solar energy into 24/7 available electricity.
This is very expensive, which means that most people can afford to have very little, if any of it, which means that most people need to give up a lot in order to curtail their electricity use down to a bare minimum level that can be supplied by an affordable PV/battery system. This means maybe a few CFL/LED lights around the house, a few fans, maybe a very small super-efficient icebox-sized refrigerator, and maybe a couple of other things if they don't draw too much current. Too many people are still thinking in terms of how to power with PVs a house presently drawing 1000-2000 kWh/mo, but it isn't going to happen. We need to be thinking in terms of what might be typical for households in upper-tier third world countries at best, that is what is realistic.
You don't need to think of PV being a battery charger if you use it for what it is good at at the moment - peak power.
For the present what we know how to do is use nuclear for baseload and PV in hot areas for baseload, or rather I should say that it seems that costs of PV will drop enough so that it will be practical for peak power within 4 years or so.
This would mean that in fact we would be increasing solar power as fast as we possibly could anyway.
To give an idea of the market, the US consumes on average 460GW or so per hour, but peak load is around 1000GW, and much of this is in hot areas when the a/c is turned on.
It should also be borne in mind that considerable additional generation capacity will be needed as natural gas runs low, so the market is pretty unlimited.
Here is the consumption pattern for California:
http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1748-9326/3/1/014003/
An innovation and policy agenda for commercially competitive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/3/1/014003/erl8_1_014003.pdf
erl8_1_014003.pdf
If you start trying to use solar for base load, the numbers rapidly run out of sight, and you start having to hypothesise major breakthroughs.
We know how to use nuclear for base-load, which it is well suited to, and we pretty well know how to use solar for peak power in hot climates.
We need to start doing what we can, instead of making the best the enemy of the good.
I agree that conservation is very important, but we do have the technology to build the energy infrastructure needed to run a technological society.
The cost of the energy are higher however than for fossil fuels, or at least fossil fuels during the era of cheap supply.
We should be thinking in terms of the same sort of costs that presently apply in Germany, around $0.30kwh, rather than the $0.08 or so that is currently paid.
Under those sorts of costings then conservation and using less makes it's own case.
The thing is though, on most days if the people have jobs or are in school, the houses are unoccupied during the period of peak solar intensity. Even on weekends, if most people have to grow a lot of their own foods in the garden, they are not going to be inside very much using electricity. Other than the refrigerator and maybe an attic fan (summertime) or furnace blower (wintertime) or crock pot, there is no real reason for much of anything to be on. Maybe they could set up a dishwasher or clothes washer on a timer to do a load mid-day, but that would be it. The time when most people need to use electricity is in the evening, and the sun is down (or nearly so) by then. So if we are going to set up individual residences with PVs, then the thing that makes sense to use the PVs for is mainly to charge batteries to provide power after sunset.
The story is completely different when it comes to commercial, institutional and industrial uses. There, most of the electricity use is during the daytime, unless they operate in the evening or 24/7. We could restructure our society so that almost all activity at these facilities happens only during daylight hours. For example, require stores to shut down at sunset, put all business and industry on a single daytime shift (and re-engineer continuous process industries into batch processes if possible), etc. Obviously a few essential things like hospitals would be an exception. Nevertheless, the vast majority of these non-residential facilities could be set up so that the vast majority of their power was supplied by PV panels. Given that those of their employees that drive to work would have their cars parked there during the day, setting up solar-powered metered recharging stations in the parking lots for the PHEVs, EVs, and NEVs would also make better sense than plugging them into the grid at home after dark.
Well, if you check out the links I provided on actual use for California, most of the peak is during day-light hours.
Also more of the load could be shifted, as if you switch on the a/c during the day in hot weather then the house would be cool at night.
If more load shifting was required it is a very different matter to provide for an hour or two of storage than to try to run a system as baseload so that you are using solar 24/7.
The nuclear infrastructure has been allowed to degrade to such a degree that it will take some time to reach a high build rate, but at the moment it generates around 100GW of power.
If you built a double Areva- sized reactor at each of the 100 sites it is currently generated at, that would give you around 300GW of output, around the right figure for base-load.
In practise that will take some time, but in practise coal plants won't be retired anytime soom so the baseload is pretty well covered.
In the States wind power is also going to provide quite a chunk of the generating needs, especially in the winter in cooler areas, as the basic costs of that onshore are way below 30cents/kwh, although you really would need storage for that, perhaps in deep mined water systems:
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1404
In America at least, at a high but not ridiculous cost there would seem little difficulty in providing all the power needed, as long as political objections do not halt progress, and financial collapse does not put a stop on it.
We need to get a movement going to replace the phrase "economies of scale" with "profligacies of scale". So it isn't just a given that bigger is better :)
To my way of thinking, the large scale CSP arrays make more sense for large-scale, high energy industrial processes: e.g., smelting & casting metals, melting and rolling sheet glass, etc. These would, of course, have to be engineered as batch processes to be run only during daytime.
I work for a firm which designs industrial facilities. It is amazing how many of our current projects are renewable energy. Currently, I am working on two solar energy manufacturing facilities and a carbon fiber facility (wind turbine blades).
Davemart writes "...there is no reason why hydrogen should not be used - fire fears are greatly exaggerated - The Hindenburg fire was associated with the fabric.".
Mythbusters did a segment on a hydrogen filled dirigible compared to an air filled one with the same flammable skin. Their 'myth' was that the hydrogen wasn't responsible. The hydrogen filled one burnt much more quickly and strongly that the air filled one. The conclusion was 'busted'.
Hydrogen is flammable - just like kerosene.
It tends to evaporate upwards though, instead of sticking to unfortunate people as it burns as kerosene does.
The use of hydrogen would need appropriate design, but there is nothing which is outside of normal engineering practise.
Investigations in how to use it safely are well underway in the aeroplane industry and in the car industry.
The real issue with hydrogen is not the flammability of the gas. In many ways, gasoline is far worse.
The real issue is that hydrogen has to be stored and transported in cryogenic liquid form to get the density up to where it is useful. Getting hydrogen in this form is not efficient. Liquid hydrogen is a hard cryogen, which means the temperature is extremely low, requiring much more sophisticated hardware. From a safety aspect, the primary concern is to protect the liquid hydrogen from other fires. If the liquid is heated by an external fire, the boiling of the liquid can easily overwhelm the relief capability, resulting in an explosion.
When I was at NASA, we had two interesting incidents. In 1979, the main propulsion test article, consisting of the space shuttle external tank and engines in the flight configuration, had a valve failure which resulted in hydrogen leakage. A fire started exterior to the aft section and went up the side of the external tank. Aside from some insulation charring, relatively limited damage resulted, since most of the heat went straight up and the fuel supply could be shutdown.
In 1986, we had the Challenger incident. As everybody knows, the solid rockets put a sustained flame on the hydrogen tank. The pressure buildup from boiling caused the tank to rupture, then an explosion resulted when the hydrogen mixed with air.
The use we were discussing for airships would not suffer from the problems you mention, as it is to provide buoyancy.
Of course, if you needed to use it for fuel then the factors you mention would come into play.
The return of the beavers is a good thing. Hope they are or remain protected.
Pete
I was hoping to get myself a warm hat.....
British waterways is not too keen on the reintroduction, and maintenance costs may increase, but on balance I like it.
Send them this link:
http://www.getipm.com/personal/dam.htm
When it comes to beavers, it is always just one dam project after another.
Gotta love it. One of the intended uses for the smaller demonstration airship? Advertising. Sounds like they need a business-as-usual environment to support their unusual business.
As an intro to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook to be published in a few days.........
Saudi Aramco talks about production
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL256564420080525?pageNumber=1&v...
"They (peak oil theorists) can say what they want to say," said Falih. "But nobody else is putting money in at these costs to have 2 million barrels of spare capacity. We don't talk. We let our actions do the talking for us. If demand for our oil eats up into our 1.5-2.0 million bpd capacity, we will again answer with our actions."
Alan
From your link:
Something doesn't add up here.
Yeah, thats why Tapis (light sweet Asian crude) and Louisiana Sweet are selling at such a discount /sarconal
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_crude
Best Hopes for Better Lies,
Alan
Speaking of Saudi liars--
April 21, 2008:
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article152791.ece
May 25, 2008:
It isn't lying, it's culture - dramatic public pronouncements are the norm ... then the real numbers, more quietly, come out in private.
Its an interesting set of statements, I wish I knew where the transcript was. Firstly:
Despite the plan that the 300,000 from Khursaniyah would be pumping now, they admit its late. Despite this an extra exactly 300,000 IS pumping (still blowing their quota).
If I had to guess, I'd say someone had promised there would be an extra 300,000 barrels per day by the US driving season, and had to raid emergency stock to make the deadline and deal with startup delays.
Hmm, an interesting choice of fields there. Some may remember that I postulated the Saudis had shut in the dregs of some fields to act as surge capacity - making their 2Mb cushion from locations that can't produce long term. Well those two are a great choice for such surge capacity. Safaniyah has been mothballed for a while, but has been up for redeveloped recently. Ghawar, particularly the northern parts, we know all about.
Bingo! Note the field not included in that list.
Shaybah was discovered in the 1960s but has been developed recently.
Safaniyah was discovered 1951, as above.
Berri was discovered in the 1960s and has bad water cut issues
Khurais was discovered in 1957 and is the subject of a recent Joulesburn satellite analysis and is being redeveloped.
None of them outside Shaybah look like great new fields, they are generally old and either well used or being reengineered. They obviously comprise the Saudi surge capacity of 1.5-2Mbpd. We can therefore assume any other field is producing at full wack. Indeed looking at that list I feel my gut reaction to what constitutes the Saudi surge capacity actually is about right. Its the old stuff that can't be produced longterm
Thus the 12-12.5Mbpd target for 2012 is more like 10-10.5Mbpd of long term production, with emergency surge capacity of 2mbpd. That depends on no crash from existing fields.
Helpful post. Thank you.
An alternative is that they didn't increase production by 300k/day in May. It was a political statement and now they have to fudge the figures (even more?) to make it look like they did.
Yea, I believe this more. The markets know the truth. They've been burned so much by the lies over the last couple years, they don't fall for it anymore. The lies do have tangible consequences and stop working after a while.
Safaniyah as a whole is not mothballed, although parts of it may be produced intermittently. Perhaps you are thinking of Manifa.
Another interesting statement is (WRT Khursaniyah):
Damn that light crude! Maybe if they would just "lightly" refine it by just boiling off a few lower hydrocarbons, and then add some H2S, the stuff would sell!
Parts were http://www.allbusiness.com/technology/computer-software/816535-1.html
in other words its been hard work to produce with areas coming under the 'too difficult' heading.
Kind of funny how they never talk about net oil exports. In the "What If" category, what if Saudi Arabia maintained a flat production rate of 11 mbpd (total liquids), and their 2006 rate of increase in liquids consumption?
"Kind of funny how they never talk about net oil exports."
One reason might be is that it's unlikely consumption will grow at a constant rate. And, in turn, one reason for that is that the Saudi economy is overheating and the only way they can contain inflation is to slow it down
http://www.marketresearchanalyst.com/2008/04/06/saudi-arabia-the-sharp-r...
In fact, most of the big exporters are suffering from unsustainable high inflation.
Venezuela's inflation is 22%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Venezuela
Russia: 12%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_russia
Iran: 16%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_iran
Good thing the USA manages to keep a nice steady 3% rate of inflation year in year out.
Is that so?
Cheers
Obviously-I was just commenting that USA published inflation rates are not considered credible by many/most observers.
Of course, Venezuela's net oil exports are probably down by one-third since 1997.
The top five net oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran, have collectively shown a drop of about 1.8 mbpd from their 2005 peak, through 2007.
Once an exporting region starts showing lower production, their rate of change in consumption just controls the slope of the net export decline. For example, the simple Export Land Model (ELM) assumes a +2.5%/year rate of increase in consumption, which produces a peak to zero net export time period of nine years. With a zero rate of increase in consumption, it would take all of 14 years.
What study do you use as a source for rate of production declines for exporters? Or is it based on Hubbert curves?
I have to admit I'm quite skeptical when it comes to Hubbert.
"which produces a peak to zero net export time period of nine years."
Some other reasons why this is unlikely:
1. The exporters depend on oil revenues for a whole host of things. Zillions of things. They won't let those revenues fall to zero while local consumption balloons! ie. You don't close the government and disband the army just so the local yokels can have cheap gas. :)
2. The exporters have to trade for many goods and services including equipment to develop their fields. In fact, they have to trade oil to eat in several cases.
3. As the price of oil rises, it will be even more painful for the elites of exporting nations to watch locals burn highly subsidized gas. That lost money could be used for so many other things.
So, how will they go about curbing local demand?
One way would be to buy them off. For example: raise the price of gasoline and sell some of the reduced demand. Use half the money to buy goodies for the locals and the rest for pet projects like better weapons for the army etc.
The production curves are based on the logistic method (or HL), which I don't believe Hubbert discussed until the early Eighties. Using the method and Texas as an analogue, we (Khebab & Brown) warned in early 2006 of a near term decline in Saudi production (see Figure Four in our Top Five paper, updated with 2006 and 2007 data in Figure Five). While the Saudis have shown, as many people expected, a near term rebound in production, I expect that their 2008 annual production rate will remain below their 2005 rate. I suspect that the Saudis are only maintaining their current rate by pushing their older fields, with rising water cuts, harder than they should.
Regarding the #2 net oil exporter--building on technical HL work by Khebab, in January, 2006 on The Oil Drum--I predicted that Russian oil production would resume its decline within one to two years, probably in 2007.
Regarding oil exporters, the following graph shows the year over year rate of change in net oil exports, starting with the first year of decline (from the final peak) to the last year of net oil exports for our Export Land Model (ELM), the UK and Indonesia. A constant exponential net export decline rate would show up as a flat line, parallel to the horizontal axis. What the three case histories show is an accelerating net export decline rate. Consider the UK, high energy consumption taxes & high per capita income, versus the Indonesia, energy consumption subsidies & low per capita income. I suspect that most net oil exporters fall between the UK and Indonesia in terms of energy taxes/subsidies and per capita income. You will note that the UK and Indonesia net export declines were quite similar.
http://www.energybulletin.net/38948.html
A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters
Published on 7 Jan 2008 by GraphOilogy / Energy Bulletin. Archived on 8 Jan 2008.
Regarding food, for some time, I have been using the term "approaching zero net oil exports." I expect a lot of world trade to gradually shift to bilateral trade between net food and net energy exporters. Not a good time to be both a big net food and net energy importer.
Well, it seems you are assuming a production decline rate based on a small selection of cases and then simply extrapolating with respect to consumption.
In any event note that, from your model, net exports will vary hugely depending on one's estimates of those two rates. Change them a bit and the predicted net exports is very different.
I also wonder what it would look like if the decline in production was based on a bottom-up analysis rather than Hubbert.
For the next few years, I don't doubt a bit of squeeze wrt net exports. Can't make sense of "goes to zero in 9 years", though. Too many things left out of the calculation.
Well, perhaps you ought to read the paper. It might improve the quality of your comments.
First, we modeled the top five net oil exporters that accounted for about half of world net oil exports in 2005.
Second, our middle case, between the low case and high case, is that the top five approach zero net oil exports in 2031, which is 26 years from their collective peak.
Third, while some smaller net oil exporters, e.g., Angola, are showing some increases, they are offset by smaller net oil exporters like Mexico, which will probably approach zero within six years. Even the unconventional net oil exporters, Canada and Venezuela, both showed net export declines in 2007 (slight decline for Canada).
Fourth, the top five in 2007 collectively showed an accelerating net export decline rate, as we predicted.
Actually, I did read it. :) IMO the model involves a methodology that is far from rock solid. (It's based on the top five exporters fitting a certain pattern -- Hubbert curve).
That's the key. If that pattern is not generally applicable, the model doesn't work. So there is an explicit assumption that Hubbert was correct. Whereas, I'm afraid I have to doubt his famous curve is generally applicable.
It the extent that Hubbert is incorrect, the model will be incorrect. It's just Hubbert in a different guise.
Wouldn't surprise me, though, if the data goes your way for a while simply because the short term elasticity of supply and demand are small.
There is NO rock solid data (or methodology) out there.
SO..if you would like quality analysis of your calibre, look up "Daniel Yergin" of "CERA".
They got the good stuff.
:P
Well, I was perplexed as to where the "Nine Years" comment came from since we were showing a middle case of 26 years for the top five.
Regarding HL, the following paper looked at two radically different post-peak cases, the Lower 48 and Russia. In terms of cumulative production, the HL method has accurately predicted post-1970 Lower 48 and post-1984 Russian production. As previously noted, Russia is now declining, which is what the HL model suggested.
In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method (June, 2007)
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2007/06/in-defense-of-hubbert-linearizat...
westexas,
I have been "lurking" for quite some time and now have finally decided to ask a clarification. As this is my first post here, I will just note that I have Ph.D. in statistics (just stated to let you kow that I "get it") and I do understand your paper, and, in general, find the ELM quite interesting.
The clarification has to do with the model itself. In both cases that you show in the link, you use the green points to fit the curve. As it turns, out the last green point is at the peak of the curve in both instances. Is this merely a coincidence? Are the curve fits as robust if you shift the green points you use down (i.e., let some of the black points be on the left side of the peak)?
If they are as robust, then that lends much more credence to the model fitting process (from a purely scientific and statistical point of view -- I realize it has seen some success in recent outcomes). My fear is that choosing a different set of points to base the model fit on will degrade the quality of the fit, but that is just a gut instinct...
I assume that you mean the Lower 48 and Russian production profiles. The questions we asked were as follows: If we just used the Lower 48 production data through 1970 and the Russian data through 1984 to predict post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 production and post-1984 Russian cumulative production, how would the actual results match the predicted values?
What the HL method does is to estimate the area under a production rate versus time graph, which assumes a roughly parabolic curve--and which is the URR for the region.
My goal has been to find the simplest mathematical method of estimating URR, which seems to have some degree of validity.
Although the Russian and Lower 48 post-peak production curves were radically different, it does appear that the HL method seems to have pretty accurately predicted the post-peak cumulative production in both cases. If this applies to the world and to key net oil exporters, the implications are obvious.
Note that the Lower 48 and Russia both showed solid linear plots prior to 1970 and prior to 1984, respectively.
I do understand what the HL method does, and I think it is pretty clever -- especially for a technique from the late 50s before a lot of statistical theory was invented. I guess I was just curious how the points from the model were chosen in the first place. Is there a place that these data are available? I would be interested in messing around with some statistical models for these data.
I agree with Alan below, btw. I think that the conceptual stance of ELM is right on -- I was just interested in learning more about the modeling procedure. As Peak Oil becomes more mainstream, many people will begin to attack the analytical procedures as a way to undermine the theoretical argument. I am interested in making sure these procedures can withstand criticisms (or be adapted to withstand criticisms) common to statistical modeling.
IMVVHO, the model is idealized and will lose some robustness and "quality of fit" in the real world. But the value of ELM is more on the conceptual level, which is quite true and a very valuable insight.
Best Hopes for People "Getting" ELM,
Alan
That is a common argument against the export land model, but I think you will find it does not hold up well to more thorough analysis.
First, oil is an inelastic commodity (to say the least) so if 1% is taken off the market by local demand, prices go up more than 1% resulting in *increasing* money flows to the exporters. Thus it is a positive feedback system. Demand is finally crushed by high prices, but not before the world is down to the last 10mbpd exports (from my rough calculations. The smaller the elasticity, the less oil you need to make lots of money).
Second, the value of oil is created in burning it, not selling it. You can make far more money by producing goods and services with oil than you can by selling oil. That is how importer nations (like the US) can survive. Thus the more the local economy can turn oil into higher profit goods and services, the better for the exporter. Eventually, by the time exports are down to the end, exporters will be selling high value plastics, manufactured equipment, etc. Everything that importers once created. Thus the petrochemical industry moving to the middle east.
A few points to consider:
1. In addition to price elasticity, we have to consider income elasticity. The later especially has been much greater than 1 in the past. There was a point in the early eighties when consumption was falling even though prices were falling also.
There is also evidence that price elasticity alone is not a constant or even linear. Some people have a tipping point at which they radically alter behavior. We do know that consumption has fallen *very* rapidly in the past..... in the neighborhood of 10% year over year for a couple of years in the US.
2. High prices will bring on more supply. May not be a large amount. May not reverse peak. But there will be more oil than if prices had remained low. Example: The North Sea would never have been developed if oil had remained at $10. Similarly the tar sands, deep water oil and ultra-deep water.
Wikipedia says re the North Sea....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_sea_oil
The North Sea is the child of high oil prices.
So, I don't see a feed back loop. (but it could seem like one for while!) Exporters' profits max out at some point.
3. RE: Your second point....
But remember there is such a thing as Dutch disease.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease
It's quite difficult for oil exporters to diversify. They have been trying for ages and it's very tough (and tougher as oil raises). In fact, if the exporters were to unpeg their currencies, it would destroy any possibility of them building other exporting industries.
(And by pegging their currencies, they import inflation big time which hurts everything)
Besides, the petrochemicals produced have to find a market. And that market will be, to a large extent, importing nations. The middle east will not be able to absorb their petrochemical production. So, once again we are talking trade oil for other goods albeit through a round about route.
PS:
Should add that Dutch disease means it's very difficult for manufacturers and producers of locally consumed products, also. They find it hard to compete against cheap imported goods bought with oil.
The North Sea has shown an annual production decline rate of -4.5%/year since peaking in 1999, while oil prices, on an annual basis, have gone up four-fold since 1999 (more on a monthly basis). So, higher oil prices + increased drilling = lower crude oil production.
This is the same pattern that we saw in Texas in the Seventies, which has shown a long term decline rate of -4%/year.
These two regions are characterized by the following: developed by private companies, using the best available technology, with virtually no restrictions on drilling.
Based on the HL model, the North Sea peaked when it was about 50% depleted.
As previously noted, Saudi Arabia based on HL, in 2005, was at about the same stage of depletion at which the prior swing producer, Texas, peaked in 1972.
I've been reading TOD for a few years now (I didn't have the courage/knowledge to start posting for a while) and I have to admit that I found westexas' constant reposting a bit tiring at first. Part of me thought he was a kook. But, if there's one thing I've learned, he's right 90% of the time. I now recognize his reposting as the desperate attempt of a modern day Cassandra (i.e. ~always right and never listened to) to smack some sense into the world. That doesn't grant a free pass, but I'm continually amazed by your prescience.
His predictions are a bit much to take for someone who's grown up in our extremely fortunate world, but they have the nasty habit of being right.
Granted, I still believe that 'something has to break (eventually),' but his prediction record has routinely had it's way with that school of thought.
Keep up the good work! I had an opportunity to talk to my 97yr. old great aunt this past weekend and it was very interesting that her fondest memories came from the thirties when she was a Red Cross employee in rural Saskatchewan at the height of the dust bowl/depression... if nothing else, the future will be exciting.
MLR: I agree with you here, Westexas is on of the best on this site.
On day's when I don't have time to read 200+ post on the drumbeat I will at least search for westexas and memmel, because if they say something I want to read it
Ed
MLR - I agree with you too
It is always a pleasure to read westexas and other tod contributors' posts
As for few trolls there is a nice greasemonkey script which allows you to filter tod posts by user
http://www.hovenweeptrading.com/gm/index.html
Bravo! I was waiting for somebody to repost that link. I'd misplaced it.
For what it is worth:
Last night, before turning in , I was channel zapping the news channels. I switched into a piece about oil prices on an english language version of a certain Arabic news channel (dont go looking for its website: It will get you on a list...:-( ...)..
Three Arab Gentlemen were speaking from Amman, Doha and London. Unfortunately, no names were given, but they seemed to know what they were talking about. They looked like Senior Oil Ministry / Industry suits.
The guy from Amman rounded off his piece with this little ditty:
'Last year, Peak Oil was a theory. Now it is a reality.'...
Is that a different list from the one we get on by posting here? :-)
Anyway I risked it and did a search for Peak Oil on Al Jazeera and - wow they've done a documentary on it. And it's rather good. Extensive interview with Robert Hirsch features as well as interviews with Kunstler and others. The conclusion? Oil has peaked.
[Click above to play]
Peaked
It's on YouTube for those too timid to surf Al Jazeera.
Peaked - Part 1
Peaked - Part 2
First broadcast January 06, 2008
Are the EIA’s predictions causing harm?
Searching on “Peak Oil” this morning I came across this jewel:
Oil and Investment Banks: Wrecking economies with hedge funds
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook has been notoriously wrong with it’s production numbers. Just this month they predicted Mexico’s All Liquids output to be up by a whopping 170,000 barrels per day. But according to PEMEX they were actually down by 78,000 barrels per day. That is an error of a quarter of a million barrels per day for just one nation.
And their predictions for the rest of the world are not much better. They show Russia increasing production by about 300,000 barrels per day by December. But Russian production is already down by over 150,000 barrels per day this year and reports out of Russia indicate the trend will continue.
But as long as people take the EIA numbers as gospel, they will continue to blame everything on speculators and investment bankers. So I blame the EIA for a lot of the misinformation out there and I have no idea how that problem can be fixed.
Ron Patterson
These Pranksters wouldn't be doing this forever-just like Danny, one of these days they will roll over and start explaining why circumstances have changed.
I think you will find that Danny Boy will, like the Cheshire Cat, fade away until only his wide smile is left.
I would be surprised if he has started to convert his loot into a well appointed survivalist bunker.
It's true! It's true! I too went to the EIA website and I can assure you that the word 'oil' appears hundreds, if not thousands, of times. I'm thinking about getting a small drilling rig for my monitor so that I can tap into the vast oil reserves on the EIA website.
You better have broadband (+16 Mbps) to handle the wall of oil coming your way as you tap into this horn of plenty .;-))
Give me an advance notice so that I can go vastly short.
One of the headline stories from today tells us
What surplus of current supply are they talking about? A couple tankers with Iranian heavy crude? Everything I've seen indicates the world is bidding up flat-to-declining net exports of crude oil. High prices are causing demand destruction, especially in the poorer parts of the world, which is (IMO) the only reason we haven't had shortages. Yet talking heads keep repeating there is a surplus of supply. Does anyone know where they get the idea there is a surplus of supply?
Turns out that my suspicions about a coordinated anti ethanol PR attack are true. However it may not be Big Oil that is behind all the anti ethanol hysteria.
I thought the way Sen. Hutchison and Gov. Perry of Texas leapt up at the height of it with legislation was a sure sign Big Oil was doing it. Logically it doesn't make much sense since ethanol tax credits benefit oil. On the other hand if oil refiners had less competition from ethanol it would be possible to increase margins.
Apparently the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA) is behind it.
Perhaps Big Oil and its representative politicians are opportunists or maybe just agreed to let the GMA take the lead since the GMA doesn't have the financial and political resources of Big Oil which would distract from the PR campaign's central thesis:
http://www.hoosieragtoday.com/wire/comments/00115_secret_193607.php
In any case the ethanol lobby and those advocating ethanol as a partial solution to the Peak Oil dilemma had better wake up
Perhaps Big Oil and its representative politicians are opportunists or maybe just agreed to let the GMA take the lead since the GMA doesn't have the financial and political resources of Big Oil
Yes, it's a never-ending conspiracy. We all know that ethanol is great. Those tools at the GMA obviously have some ulterior motive.
Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
Could selling food be their ulterior motivation ?
That sounds like an extremely plausible theory to me !
Alan
Well....
Let's be honest, they do have ulterior motives. If we start having food riots, the government will step in with price controls, and their profits go out the window.
So they are being motivated by selfishness.
{evil laughter}
Texas has a lot of cattlemen, and they are on the wrong side of the corn to ethanol curve. Sure they get to use the brewers yeast left over from the ethanol plants, but in any case their feed costs are growing higher. So grocers, ranchers, and oil companies all have a common interest here. Sounds like the sort of conjunction of local interests that no politician could ignore.
I just posted this in my personal ledger.
http://www.pauldos.com/musings/article.php?article=1211810098
Quite simply there isn't enough oil production capacity in the world to meet demand at $40 barrel. It's not going there.
I'm almost convinced it's possible...
Place your bets. Go short oil, bigtime. You'll be rich and can retire exactly as the world oil supply gushes forward so we can continue the plastic consumption lifestyle. You'll be able to jet around anywhere and everywhere for the rest of your life. You can't lose... unless you are wrong.
There see to be a lot of people who think the price of a commodity should rise by the same ratio that the supply declines. This amounts to an assumption that demand curves are linear and have a slope of 1. Nothing in economics theory or practice requires this. For a vital commodity the demand can be very resistant to price increases and the only way the commodity is allocated is consumers bid up the price until the least wealthy drop out. Therefore a small decrease in availability can lead to a large increase in price. This is well known in economics and does not involve speculators at all.
When there is insufficient supply to meet the current demand, prices must rise sufficiently to destroy the excess demand. The rise in prices will correlate to (a) how great the shortfall of supply was, (b) how necessary the commodity is to the consumer, (c) whether there are any reasonable substitutes, and (d) how much much available money the consumer has to bid up the price.
Even if (a) is small, price rises can be dramatic because of the other factors. During the Enron-engineered shortage of natural gas in California, a 2% shortfall in NG caused the price to triple. The shortfall was small, but NG was relatively essential, there were no substitutes that could be brought to bear quickly, and Californians had enough money that the prices had to skyrocket to destroy enough demand to balance the supply.
IMO, the people who claim that prices have risen too fast for it be a supply problem just don't understand the supply & demand dynamic. Also, commentaries that oil prices are unjustified because "there haven't been shortages" are uninformed at best, moronic at worst (not to mention these people clearly don't read the news about what is happening outside the US).
Some of it may depend upon your definition of what the word "speculator" means. I've had this conversation with a fellow whose opinion I always value at work. He blames speculation. But when pressed, oil producers not being enthusiastic to pump flat out today, because the price may be higher tomorrow, are included in his definition of speculators. His native language isn't English, so perhaps his meaning of speculation may differ from ours. In any case, the rapid rise from $110 to $130plus does feel a bit like a bubble -presumably caused by the main mainstreaming of the peakoil concept. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10 or 20 dollar pullback in the near future.
Your comments don't actually contain any analysis at all.
Regarding peak oil you just say 'it could be', don't give any grounds for saying that the price is in fact speculation driven and then somehow come up with a figure of $40.
I can't figure out what you think the value of what you are saying is - it is just a random assertion.
That's right. But it's my two cent's worth.
Nowadays every frigging monkey has a website.
Here's a couple stories from mine:
Argentina: La Costa del Uruguay pide paridad en la provisión de combustible
India: Petrol shortage hits Auarangabad, other Maharashtra cities
Yemen: Hundreds of Vehicles line up Waiting for Diesel; Crisis Continues to Grow
Speculation or no, all the oil sells at $130.
There are no stories of extracted oil going unsold at the persian gulf.
Demand meets supply at that price....
the structure of your comment reminds me of a haiku.... short, sweet and bang on.
I'd love to sign off with something clever in Japanese, but all I know is 'hakobu no wa muri desu yo' which (i think) means: 'to carry that would be impossible.' I tried. I'm busy learning German.
I agree that the rapid increase in oil prices doesn't make a lot of sense when one looks just at total world production. So, perhaps there is a different explanation.
http://www.energybulletin.net/38948.html
A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters
Published on 7 Jan 2008 by GraphOilogy / Energy Bulletin. Archived on 8 Jan 2008.
Touche!
News reports indicate first full bleacher seats at Indy 500 in ten years. Indy 500 does not release attendance statistics.
This is the 92nd running of the Indy 500, may it never see it's centennial.
Alan
History will look back at us and laugh at how we wasted such a precious resource by driving as fast as can in a circle for 500 miles! Any guess on when these obscene car races will be shut down?
"......laugh at how we wasted such a precious resource...."
i dont consider ethanol a precious resource. maybe a waste of precious resources.
Why not change the rules?
No restrictions on power but ration fuel to each team.
The year after Danica stops racing?
Pentagon Supports Suburban Sprawl and Increased Oil Use
by moving 13,000 jobs from Crystal City (next to Pentagon with DC Metro stop) to remote suburban Maryland, Ft. Belvoir, and military bases scattered around Republican states.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/25/AR200805...
Good Thing All of That Iraqi Oil is Coming Our Way,
Alan
".....and military bases scattered around Republican states."
just curious, what exactly is a republican state ?
Alabama.
The republicans could nominate Nixon's cadaver and he would still win the state by 30%
AMC (Army Material Command) is being moved to Huntsville, AL.
Lots of big salary jobs coming with it.
Nah, not Nixon. Even though he was Republican, most current Republicans and neo-cons would consider his policies communist today.
I disagree. He was anti-abortion, thats all that counts down here. As long as his corpse puts out a position paper against gays and Muslims, the state is his.
Hmm, if anti-abortion is all that matters, why didn't Ron Paul get more votes in that state? Remember, Nixon was elected to end the war in Vietnam (even though took his damn sweet time doing it.) He introduced wage and price controls, made Social Security indexed to inflation. Hell, he created the EPA! And if that's not bad enough, he lowered the speed limit to 55!
So, tell me again why he wouldn't be considered a far-left wacky enviro-commie freak by the right-wingers? :)
(p.s., Personally, I abhor Nixon, especially his foreign policy, but that's beside the point of my comments.)
Yes, both Nixon and LBJ would be considered commies by today's right wing (Rush) media and their followers.
Ron wasn't part of the machine, and made that plain at every debate. A.K.A he didn't show party loyalty. That is a really big thing down here. Plus I don't recall him sucking up to the evangelicals.
But if he (or anyone) received the republican nomination he would win the state.
Remember that Huckabee won Alabama, not McCain.
what exactly is a republican state
Similar to a democratic one. Both are marked by confusion, a swelled tounge that clicks the upper pallet while going 'tisk tisk, thinks would be better if things where done our way'. Commonly found along the de nile river.
A place I do not want to be ;-)
It will soon be only a State of Mind if they continue to go radical. Although I assume its RedState thing that will become some other color like maybe plad? This is of course caused by Ludicrous Speed of distruction ;-)
They're the ones that will secede and form the Republic of Redneckistan ...
This is so retarded - I am glad that I no longer work for the Government..
I am guessing that Ft Belvoir is about 5 miles from the Springfield-Franconia Metro stop. About the same from the nearest VRE stop.
FWIW, Google Earth shows a rail spur going into Ft Belvoir, but I don't think I see any tracks. Not that it would matter that much, but if the right-of-way is already there, one in theory has some options in the future.
The space in Crystal City has lots of Metro-accessible office buildings. It may take a little while, but I imagine that they will be popular. A lot more popular than office buildings out in nowheresville.
They are doing it for a sensible reason. They want their bases spread and outside the main city areas so that in the event of a terrorist (not to say nuclear) attack they can continue operating.
Crystal City and the Pentagon could be closed down relatively easily with virtually one action.
Plus office space costs much less that far out and provincial councils like the inflow of cash.
Not that sensible.
There is greater efficiency/fewer SNAFUs in having different sectors within easy access of each other (the ORIGINAL reason for the Pentagon, with the central courtyard). Moving them into different time zones just destroys that.
Also, informational lectures (like the excellent energy series with a who's who of Peak Oil speakers) lose their impact if people cannot attend.
And the Army Material Command can be knocked out with a single blow in Alabama or Crystal City. Other military sectors cannot easily replace their function.
According to the article, only 35% of employees are expected to follow their jobs. Gee, I wonder what SNAFUs will develop when, say, Army Material Command relocates to rural Alabama and 4/5ths (higher attrition there) of employees are new and replaced with whoever can be recruited to work there. Hope we are out of Iraq by then and no one is shooting at us.
And most important, a prolonged oil supply interruption#, or just a bad snow storm, can disable the US military, where today it has alternative Non-Oil transportation for at least a skeleton crew (75% can get to work with zero oil today ?). DC Metro was justified in part as a strategic necessity to avoid oil dependence for the Pentagon (just after 1973 Oil Embargo). And DC Metro keeps going when weather shuts down the roads.
Just another brilliant move by GWB !
Best Hopes,
Alan Drake
# US $ collapses and USA can only import the oil it can pay for with current exports (at elevated prices). US oil imports drop by 6 million b/day. A greater probability threat than a nuclear bomb southeast of DC.
I wandered over to www.kriscan.com today and much to my surprise...Kris is not a dude, but a good looking girl! One who apparently also dances in clothing made from shopping bags and has rockin' biceps. We could definitely use more sexy in peak oil awareness. Not sure about the mullet, though...
That brings up a more interesting issue. It's hard enough to meet fellow buddies who understand Peak Oil and can converse about it. Most of my friends think I'm a little paranoid when I talk about Peak Oil. Luckily I have a couple of friends who do understand it.
But try to find a woman who's at least mentally stable, intelligent, and attractive and that's hard. Then toss in being open to the idea of Peak Oil and that's damn near impossible. It's as if we have to live in two worlds; one is reality where Peak Oil will dramatically affect our entire civilization; and the other is fantasy where life is fine, go bar-hopping, clubbing, and happy motoring.
I know what you mean, but I don't have an answer.
I think you can expand that idea even farther, and ask how to just find sane people on the internet.
The oildrum is kind of an island of sanity. It is well run by educated, emotionally stable people, who try to "emphasize the empirical".
Most sites seem to be overwhelmed with trolls, screamers and crazies (and in some case they are running the site).
People along the spectra of gender and sexual orientation are attracted to those with a big carbon footprint. Gradually that may change.
Hi PedalPusher,
re: "But try to find a woman who's at least mentally stable, intelligent, and attractive and that's hard."
Goodness.
Do you mean, "hard to find a woman...with these characteristics?"
Or, do you mean "Hard to find a woman with all these characteristics... who would like to spend time chatting about "peak"?"
Or, do you mean "hard to find a woman w. all these characteristics... who likes to talk about 'peak oil'- (and possibly is open to discussing other weighty matters as well)- and might also be interested in a romantic relationship?"
Or, do you mean "hard to find a woman w. all these characteristics... who likes to talk about 'peak oil' (and possibly is open to discussing other weighty matters as well) and might also be interested in a romantic relationship - With me?"
If you've got straight teeth and clear skin, I'm in love ...
Let's start at #2. Regarding science & economic matters, there are so few women interested in talking about those topics. Just look at the demographics at any university. I've shown the various Peak Oil DVDs to my co-workers during lunch. The guys will engage in conversation about it, whether it's for real or a hoax, but at least there will be a discussion. The women, however, roll their eyes and talk about the latest fashion or pop star "news." The only time the women talk about oil is when they complain about how much they paid to fill up their tanks. And then they blame the oil companies for it and won't even acknowledge the concept of Peak Oil when I bring it up. So it is like living in two different worlds - one is reality where Peak Oil exists and will dramatically impact us all, and the other is fantasy where you can socialize with others.
Yes and No-IMO women are more interested in the bottom line than the discussion-i.e. you tell me global oil supply has peaked-OK-how are you going to make money off that and how much of that will I see-the endless discussion is boring to most women but if the focus is on how much money you are going to make off it their ears will perk up IMO. Obviously there are notable exceptions to this rule.
Well apparently laughing and saying my oil investments keep going higher whenever they complain about filling their tanks hasn't quite worked. ;-)
Seriously, though, I do wonder in post-peak if we'll go back to some sort of feudal/lordship/caste system where the "haves" and "have-nots" are clearly defined and women, not through love but through survival/social advancement, would pair up with the "haves" even if they don't have any other desirable traits.
That is the way it currently is on most of the planet (termed the third world).
KunstlerCast #14: Talkin' Peak Oil
A listener caller asks JamesHoward Kunstler for advice on how to talk to people about peak oil, the point at which our demand for oil will probably exceed the global supply. Kris, the caller, has a webshow about peak oil at KrisCan.com. In order to help with her message, Jim watches her public service announcement. During the video, she warns viewers about the impending oil crisis while writhing on the ground, naked, behind two gas cans. Jim has trouble concentrating on the "message." But he likes Kris.
(Info about program and theme music at KunstlerCast.com)
Direct Download (10 MB):
KunstlerCast_14.mp3
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LOL. LOL. LOL.
I had a look through her videos too. She has one where she asks people walking in the park if they have heard of Peak Oil. Mostly no one has a clue what she means but there was a guy who knew about it and also talked about using a hand drill to build stuff because people couldn't hear you - which helped if you didn't have a permit. It was the funniest thing I'd heard all day and I nearly fell of my chair laughing. Too bad that most everyone else was clueless but I guess we can thank the MSM for a job well done.
Is Peak Oil a City Issue?
I googled Peak oil in german and got some good articles.
http://www.handelszeitung.ch/artikel/Finanz-SCC_oel-Ist-der-_Peak-Oil_-b...
http://www.linkezeitung.de/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id...
http://www.tagblatt.ch/index.php?artikelxml=1514384&ressort=tagblattheut...
It seems from above that ASPO had a meeting in Basel, Switzerland and that Colin Campbell was there and that ASPO figures with realit but oil industry wears rose coloured glasses.
Two Swiss, one German site.
And the Francophone Swiss are numerous here on TOD.
And the Swiss voted 31 billion Swiss francs to to transfer freight to (hydro) electric rail in 1998, they are expanding their already excellent trams in Zürich, Geneva, Basel and elsewhere.
H'mmm
Best Hopes for the Swiss !
Alan
1. Has everyone checked out alltop.com yet? Especially http://green.alltop.com? TOD is featured there as are the latest RSS feeds of many of the major green sites.
2. Also, TOD is on twitter now with our RSS feed: http://twitter.com/theoildrum. If you are a tweeter, erm twitterer, erm, give us a follow...and tweet your friends about our posts now and again.
3. If you have a blog, or are a member of a messageboard, or play at a link farm like metafilter or anything else, the more you plant links to our stuff, the more eyes it gets...it's that simple. Every little bit helps. Submit our stuff to those link farms or use the ShareThis buttons found around each post, they're simple (as long as you are logged in to the respective sites).
4. Tell your friends! :) We really do need and appreciate your support. That and "doing good" is what keeps us all going.
Thanks a lot!
If people cared I would tell them about the site but they are too interested in being sheeple.
I tell them anyway. At least I can say "I told you so" somewhere down the line.
That alltop site looks great... thanks much... also, thanks for reposting the 'primers' I'll be sure to send them around. Who knows, maybe people will read them this time.
"CNOOC in talks with Canadian-based Talisman Energy over a possible takeover deal…"
If CNOOC is successful, would anybody make a guess for where Talisman production will end up.
This would certainly introduce a new link in the export land equation.
NGM2
i think the possibility of asset sales was also in discussion. talisman has a lot of production and exploration areas in se asia. my guess is that these assets would be sold to cnooc. north africa, the north sea and the western hemisphere ? maybe they wont be a part of the deal, if there is one.
Please read the following: http://www.lewrockwell.com/armentano-d/armentano13.html
Title: The Coming Collapse of Oil Prices - Despite government. Article by Dom Armentano.
I emailed with this:
So, the idea is to use up the oil to the point it is so expensive that other energy sources become viable…shouldn’t we be saving the oil for future generations by cutting our current usage, through conservation, instead of continuing our drilling and hell bent for leather usage? Seems a bit selfish to me; I want my grandkids to have some of the benefits of gas and oil, like fertilizer to grow food so they won’t starve and fuel for ships so we can have efficient transoceanic transportation. Sounds like you don’t care about much more than keeping your oil-based lifestyle, and the future take care of itself.
The thing to keep in mind when reading lewrockwell.com, is that it starts with a political agenda, then goes looking for things to support it's view. Just look at the homepage "anti-state anti-war pro-market"
It's in the same vein as redstate.com and freerepublic.com, they don't want to be confused by the data.
Our top five article seems to have offended the delicate sensibilities of the folks at Free Republic:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2019509/posts
Wow - these folks are SCARY. At least many of them hate John McCain as much as they hate dem's and enviro's.
I'm tempted to have a go at them, but not today. Just checking their site is going to force me to go outside for a while. It's depressing that any % of us 'Merikans hold such ideas.
To spare y'all having to experience it: It's all about evil liberals, worthless congress, drill drill drill here in the USA, McCain is a liberal, Arab's are terrorists, immigrants are Arabs, etc. etc. etc.
Yup.
I'd say the next stop after free republic is the neo-nazi's and the KKK.
The thing to remember is that the world has been here before, the great depression gave rise to all sorts of "solutions", and people embraced them willingly. Desperate people will grasp any lifeline tossed their way.
I'm tempted to have a go at them
Why? If you are not an echo in the chamber, you get banned.
Not worth your time, as the readership goes there to be re-assured that their POV is correct.
Freepers are a funny lot - walking, talking proof of the need for cousins to marry outside the family compound. I used to get banned once a quarter but the fun has gone out of it - it's like they smell me coming :-)
I think it got 5 responses, while you are legimately a big deal here at TOD outside of the PO circle you are not in the Paris Hilton league of infamy. Yes I post at Freakistan, and I can say that on the oil threads nearly a third believe in the very premise of PO. Better than I can say for the two "libs" I work with who are sure that Bush/Cheney are hiding the oil (I kid you not). To the other posters piling on their bigotries, save it especially SCT who needs to go out and be productive and lead by example instead of his Kossack poofery. Other than that please keep up the good work and stay away from the religion of PC for your own good.
Kossack poofery? Praytell what would you have me do to "lead by example"?
Actually I thought you were doing something innovative instead of preaching doom to fellow doomsters. Then I read your Kos diary. Good luck, and that is from a rabid right winger whatever that is these days.
Agree. However, I link to several sources with different agendas and the same modus operandi. When stirred together they present an excellent (I assume) insight into our national thinking (or lack of). My favorite lines from my favorite movie, I Know Where I'm Going: She says, "He's a bit wierd, isn't he?", and he says, "Aren't we all?".
First link at top is duff; try The Illusion of Vast Undeveloped U.S. Oil Resources
A "freethinker" at No Beliefs has decided peak oil is a "myth."
Our rather lengthy (and fruitless) correspondence ended with this dismal last word from the editor:
Serves me right for breaking my vow to keep my mouth shut from now on.
Mike
To be fair, here's my letter that he responded to, so you can judge his evaluation for yourselves:
I have to say, as soon as he said "Sir", I didn't expect him to be interested in a real dialog. Shadow-boxing can be good practise, just the same.
Your comments sounded reasonable, but it might be more useful to hit a couple points and keep it concise. I like to mention that peak discovery was in the early 1960's, and that two generations have now failed to reverse the discovery decline. "Where do you think that is heading? Back Up? Why? How?"
Keep up the good fight, but don't wear yourself out on challengers who won't make any contact.
Bob
In a way, I look at this like the Iraq war. Public opinion only changes when the bodies start to stack up. Till then, the mental doors are lock tight for about half the population.
&%!*^* ! Bang, there goes several decades of work on image processing of synthetic aperture radar, various kinds of medical imagery, image data mining techniques, etc. Thank goodness there are websites where pundits can reveal their blinding "insights" to the world.
Why is it that people who realize the terrible situation that were in with regard to peak oil have one answer: drill? Drill more everywhere, destroy the earth and in the end we're right back where we started. Smart people, rich people, people who have made their living with their minds are repeating this mantra. Have we become so closed minded, so addicted to the black stuff that we cannot imagine a world without it and if so what in the world does that portend for the future of this planet and of our civilization?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g
What do we burn besides witches?
...more witches
I recommend a book called The Entropy Law and the Economic Process by Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen. You shouldn't expect people to be "rational"---especially about energy consumption---this is explained in this book very well. Much better than I can explain. This book is like one long learned "OIl Drum" post....and a very good read!
(I chose the name "pi" becuase it's an irrational number---although I like to think I'm rational, of course----but really, maybe, humans ARE no smarter than yeast.......! Well, WHY should we be smarter than yeast?? Since when is "being smart" so important? On a basic level, humans and yeast are the same. Actually, I really like yeast these days as I'm busy brewing plum wine AND if yeast didn't do it's thing, then there would be no wine.)
3 cheers for yeast!
energytomorrow.org the voice of the American Petroleum Institute says the US has 112 billion barrels;
45 billion in Alaska, 45 billion in GOM, 11 billion in the Pacific offshore, 4 billion in the Atlantic offsfore and 7 billion in the onshore lower 48.
http://www.energytomorrow.org/energy_issues/truth_about_oil_gasoline_pri...
Prof. Blanchard says GOM is probably worth 10 billion barrels but certainly less than 30 Gb and he suggests offshore Alaska may be a bust.
Alaska's oil would have to squeeze down the Alyeska 2.2 mbpd pipeline, so energytomorrow's 45 billion would last 50 years.
Most of Alyeska's oil goes to the West Coast with 3.3 mbpd overall demand.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EP00_VPP_mbblpd_a.htm
Rocky Mountain States use .7 mbpd and produces half that in the area.
The Midwest uses about 5.2 million barrels per day and currently sucks down 1 mbpd from the tar sands plus they have all that delicious corn-ethanol (.5 mbpd).
The Gulf area
sucks down about 5.3 mbpd but then of course it produces the majority of US production at about 3 mbpd.
The Atlantic coast consumes more than 6.2 mbpd.
It has no oil production.
I wouldn't want to be on the East Coast when TSHTF.
Oil triage anyone?
Aramco's output takes a dip
Two new finds...let's see...
1) Nemo
2) ?
Hello TODers,
As I have been trying to explain in my fertilizer posting series here on TOD: things are continuing to get worse. The breaking news weblinks on I-NPK & O-NPK fertilizers are getting too plentiful for me to monitor alone:
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-05/i-wfp052308.php
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World fertilizer prices continue to soar... [please see included chart]
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http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/4561169a3600.html
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World demand forces rise in fertiliser prices
Farmers smarting from increased costs are about to be hit in the pocket again, with fertiliser prices predicted to rise by hundreds of dollars as global demand creates shortages.
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http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=53620&sn=Detail
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Beneath the oil frenzy
While crude oil dominates the commodity limelight, among listed stocks, investors continue to rotate portfolio flows away from gold, silver and most base metals.
...The value of PotashCorp (POT US, CAD 194.25), which now ranks as one of the world's top ten mining stocks by value, has increased by just under 1,800%. For investors who chuckle at the idea of potash mining, consider that in Saskatchewan, host to one of only two primary potash basins in the world, mining only starts at about 1,800 metres down, and continues to more than 3,000 metres. A new mine costs $2.5bn - excluding infrastructure - and takes five to seven years to deliver its first output...
------------------------------------
http://www.wanganuichronicle.co.nz/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=37...
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Super price rise further blow for farmers
"The demand is certainly outstripping the supply at the moment," Mr Doughty said.
"It's a supply and demand thing and demand overseas as well, and bio-fuels have taken a hell of a lot of fertiliser."
And he said it was apparent phosphate producers, including the Chinese, were sitting on their stocks.
And the volatility of overseas markets is having an impact in other areas of the fertiliser trade too, with incandescent prices for fuel creating anguish.
Rick Harding, operations manager for Wanganui Aero Work Ltd, said the company was juggling two issues at the moment the fertiliser demand and the volatile fuel prices.
..."We're very busy, but the problem now is we've run out of fertiliser," Mr Harding said.
-------------------------------
Have you hugged your bag of NPK today?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob,
I understand that, as part of the oil crisis, the I-NPK crisis will affect commercially produced agriculture prices and reduce yields. The dire prediction for post carbon era food production in general is why more communities should start learning to produce and store local organic food.
But when you say O-NPK crisis what exactly do you mean.... is this warning for folks who already compost and use fish/bone meal?
Hello Urbangardener,
Kudos to you for composting and gardening--Big tip of the hat!
The O-NPK crisis, in my mind, is our global love of flush toilets and trash disposal instead of the required recycling/composting/reusing of these Elements. The coming water problems combined with the seaward flow of these nutrients need to be seen as a colossal waste compared to the full closed-loop potential that could be obtained.
The problem is not even discussed in many countries that could save trememdous sums of money by ramping O-NPK to offset I-NPK imports. Zimbawe, for example, has streets and housing suffering from sewage overflows, with the corresponding health risks, while many people are tremendously malnourished, and/or starving, or leaving the country.
The other part of the O-NPK crisis is the bulky transport distance problem as we go postPeak; increasingly difficult to find the fuel & ICE trucks to move manures or urban-compost back to the farms over decently maintained asphalt/concrete roads. My speculative narrow gauge minitrains, then the gradual migration of this trackbed to non-FF SpiderWebRiding is my 'silver BB solution' to help optimize the Overshoot decline. Emanating from the standard gauge RR & TOD ideas of Alan Drake's, of course. Thxs for responding, too.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I just read this one in Canada's Globe and Mail
The Dubai miracle
Normally I would have just passed it by, but the author is Gwyn Morgan. If you do a Google search for UAE natural gas shortage and take a look at Mr. Morgan's biography, you wonder why there was no mention of the severe natural gas shortage Dubai is facing!
I thought it was kinda funny myself, but I guess he's practicing for his debut at Fodor's and not Lonely Planet!
Hello TODers,
Recall my extensive prior posts on sulphur, and the resulting cascading blowbacks on the NPK and industrial supply chain:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_...
-----------------------
Sulphur price soars on fertiliser demand
...Patrick Romeo, general manager of sulphur marketing for Shell, said the market was undersupplied. The reason for the extraordinary price surge, he said, is that sulphur producers cannot respond to price increases and produce more. Sulphur output is purely a function of the amount of “sour” crude oil and sour gas that is processed by refineries. Mr Romeo said: “There is not much you can do about producing more sulphur. We are trying our best to put everything we have in stock into the market.”
Shell is confident that the price surge is temporary and the company is developing products, such as sulphur- based concrete, anticipating a furture surplus. It said: “There will be more sulphur in the market in the longer term and it will be overproduced as the world uses more unconventional oils, such as oil sands. Unconventional oil means more sulphur.”
---------------------
Recall that Shell was very confident of their FF reserves until they went: OOPS! I expect continuing sulphur problems if Peakoil is considered.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
MEMORIAL DAY OUCH!!!
I was out getting some stuff, food, walmart etc. and being as efficient as possible due to the cost of fuel. As I passed the cheapest gas station in our rural California region, the price was a total shock: $419.9 a gallon for unleaded and 539.9 for diesel! I know Memorial Day weekend is traditionally the most expensive weekend for fuel, but wow, will someone please jolt me back to life. And I understand oil went to 133 today, so there is no relief in sight.
I hope you mean prices are $4.20/gal for gasoline & $5.40/gal for diesel--not $420/gal & $540/gal!
Hello TODers,
http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/editorials/hc-plccondon0525.artmay25...
------------------------------
$7 Gas will rock our world
...The nearly 1,800-mile transcontinental railroad was built in six years, 1863 to 1869.
When gas hits $7, people are going to ask, "Where's the train?".
--------------------------------
Recall my prior postings on narrow gauge minitrains to help bridge this gap. Are any TOD engineers studying the feasibility of the yanking of ICE drivetrains for powering minitrains like these?
http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train2.jpg
http://www.monon.monon.org/sobendpixs4/03-26storyland-train1.jpg
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
..The nearly 1,800-mile transcontinental railroad was built in six years, 1863 to 1869
It should be noted that for 1863, 1864 and part of 1865, the United States was heavily engaged in a terrible war, and part of the United States had seceded.
And the remainder of the years were during the early Reconstruction, with much of the country in ruins, under military occupation and near chaos.
Alan
Also there were no invormential or right of way acquisition problems
Actually the Native Americans did have some objections along those lines :-(
Alan
Ya, my great gandfather was killed in an Indian raid when he was working as a wagen train guide for a group traveling to Winnepig Canada. There is supposed to be a monument in that area marking the event.
So ... given that we face slightly worse conditions after eight years of George Waterboard Bush in the White House, what would you say about our prognosis?
"Where's the train?"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Draisine-templin.jpg
Hello TODers,
Recall my prior postings on Morocco: The War Nerd, Gary Brecher, weighs in on Morocco, and other critical issues:
http://www.alternet.org/story/86451/
---------------
How Birthrate Is Turning Modern Conventional Warfare on Its Head
What was the most important battle of the late 20th century? You could argue it was the one that took place on the southern border of Morocco on November 6, 1975....
----------------
Very long download for me, but well worth it!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I hadn't been so happy with a lot of Gary's recent stuff, where he seems to have trouble fine-tuning his wonderfully crude metaphors and hyperbolae for his larger non-Exile audience, but I think this is one of his most thoughtful pieces.
Population is a great weapon. Churches have tried to accelerate the reproduction of their followers for millenia; evangelism is never enough. The early Christians were so chaotic that they couldn't agree on issues of homosexuality, suicide and the role of women and abortion, all affecting birth rates. When the Bishop of Rome began to gather the reins of power, these issues were all decided on the side of multiplication. Islam got the message not long after.
Modern political states, on the other hand, have turned against natalism, at least since Ceucescu was overthrown in Romania. They face the problem that China did; they're held responsible for increasing standards of living and maintaining infrastructure for comfort, and at some point 7% per annum population growth makes that impossible.
So now it seems that the world's poor, whom the states see as a liability who should be triaged for the convenience of the affluent taxpayers, are turning to those misogynist, monotheistic, baby-mad religions for leadership. Interesting. Did you know the word "proletariat" comes from a phrase that means "poor in all things but children"?
It's going to be very hard to come up with a plan that will convince the poor to reduce birth rates without breaking the bank, but I guess the alternative is stark raving madness.
Yes, Follow the money:
High supply of labor keeps wages low /profit high. Therefore it is a religious imperative to keep em barefoot and pregnant.
Hello TODers,
http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/05/dayintech_0526?npu...
-------------------------
May 26, 1908: Mideast Oil Discovered — There Will Be Blood
...Exactly 100 years ago today, the smell of sulfur hovered in the air at Masjid-i-Suleiman. That was a good sign for an experienced oil hand like Reynolds. At 4 in the morning, the drill reached 1,180 feet below the desert and struck oil. A huge gusher shot 75 feet into the air.
The site was so remote that it took five days before D'Arcy got word by telegram in England. "If this is true," he replied, "all our troubles are over...."
----------------------------
I would argue this put a global blowtorch to the Malthusian problems we are seeing today.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
For the 6 months or so that i've been around, a certain misconception keeps popping up.
It goes like this:
Consumers are very unresponsive to price hikes. Thus there is a positive feed-back loop as more and more money will be spent on chasing declining production (especially exports)......an upward spiral.
Won't happen. At least not for long.
This is because oil consumption in the US is very responsive to GDP declines. Would take some space to show all the math but may do it later anyway.
Suffice it to say that a decline in GDP during a recession will lead to 4 to 9 times more of a reduction in oil consumption. Example: During the early nineties recession, GDP declined 1.25 percent but consumption dropped 4.5 percent. Even in the tech recession, which was very slight, consumption dropped 2%.
If we have a recession to the tune of -2% GDP, look for consumption to drop 10%.
I have often said that the default (never fail) means of reducing oil consumption is "reduced economic activity".
Best Hopes for Better Means of Reducing Oil Consumption,
Alan
There is some reason for hope.
According to Table 1 of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, product supplied is down 2.3% from last year.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_pe...
And supposedly we are not in recession. Dunno who believes it though.
I don't know if your figuring is right or not but I expect that would also mean the converse is true - that consumption being very dependent on GDP also means GDP is very connected to consumption. But we're seeing people argue the opposite - that in fact we are more efficient now than ever before, and GDP is no longer very dependent on oil.
Personally I don't see that we've changed so much. But living in Bangkok I can tell you that any lowering of consumption in the USA will be happily slurped up here and other places where governments subsidize oil prices to keep the economy well lubricated.
People believe that a drop in GDP in the USA will hit China hard as well but I'm not so sure. It may just mean China makes up for it in other markets. I know for sure that here in Thailand there is a huge array of Chinese imports. Chinese stuff is everywhere.
Hello TODers,
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/656427?UserKey=0
----------------------------
No respite as cost of fertiliser remains high
Doubling of prices blamed on global shortage of nutrients
...The doubling in prices is down to a global shortage of all four nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorous, potash and sulphur....It is hard to say the same with any certainty about phosphate, conventional supplies of which will become exhausted in our grandchildren’s generation."
-----------------------
For Newbies: I suggest the posting by Bart on EB about Peak Phosphorus.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I also suggest newbies read JD's Post "PEAK PHOSPHORUS? HIT THE SNOOZE BUTTON" for both sides of the story:
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2007/12/321-peak-phosphorus.html
'hit the snooze button'
So your position is 'not my problem, let the future people deal with it'?
Typical response of people who work in Washington DC. I got mine, screw you.
Hello Theantidoomer,
Thxs for responding. In case you didn't know, the global movement of the Elements N,P,K, and sulfur; from initial raw ores to final value-added product is probably now upwards of 600 million tons per annum [my sulfur link above states 47 million tons/annum for just raw sulfur alone]. This takes mind-boggling amounts of energy for the total global accumulation, processing, then subsequent dispersive global distribution.
As the Hubbert Downslope and ELM hammers home: cascading blowbacks will just decimate these very long and complex supply chains. Your food, for just one example among tens of thousands of products, is composed of N,P,K, sulfur, and many other Elements too. We cannot eat sylvanite, iron pyrite, and other ores, nor can we drink crude, therefore we must energy-transform the raw inputs into final products. Recall that job specialization is entirely dependent upon food surpluses.
Just like FFs: it is not the size of the depleting reserves-- it is the flowrates that are important. Please tell me how, without using FFs, to mine potash from 3,000 meters down, beneficiate it, then get it to a farm far-inland and/or at a high elevation, say the slopes of Mt Killamanjaro, or Nepal, or the Ozzie Outback.
You have read my discussion of this many times before. I respectfully suggest you and JD need to recalibrate your postPeak thinking on this topic. Your continued obfuscation will only cost many more lives to be senselessly wasted going forward. You should not want that to be on your conscience, IMO.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Fuel-saving find
http://www.in-forum.com/articles/index.cfm?id=202187§ion=Business&fr...
Paywall link - got a subscription? I seem to be having good luck getting things funded ... as long as they're real.
Damn, got to go through google, search "inforum, hydraulic, hybrid"
Saudi Aramco has just released their Annual Review 2007.
Saudi Aramco, Cornerstones, 2007 Review (warning 8 MB, 68 page pdf)
http://www.saudiaramco.com/irj/go/km/docs/SaudiAramcoPublic/AnnualReview...
Page 4 – falling production but artificially high reserves, should be closer to 100 Gb
Crude oil production average for 2007 was 8.5 mbd (assumed to exclude Neutral Zone)
Recoverable crude & condensate reserves Dec 2007 259.9 Gb
Page 6 – diversifying downstream as reserves dwindle
“our refining and marketing joint and equity ventures; and our move into petrochemicals to add value through production of a broad, diverse slate of plastics and chemicals, and to introduce new value chains into the Kingdom”
Page 13 – lots of oil left so cars will mainly use petroleum in 2050
“Oil is a proven commodity, and for decades to come, fossil fuels are expected to continue to comprise some 85 percent of the “energy pie.” Much of that demand stems from transportation requirements; a recent World Energy Council study concludes that through 2050, cars will continue to depend primarily on petroleum fuels and internalcombustion engines. And there will continue to be more cars on the roads, too, especially as the populations of emerging economies such as China and India become more mobile thanks to improved lifestyles.”
“from the standpoints of abundance, reliability and affordability, fossil fuels are an established resource with extensive production, transportation and distribution networks. They are expected to account for more than four-fifths of the world's energy demand for the next quarter-century, and will not be displaced in the foreseeable future”
Page 14 – more PR about lots of oil left
“Widespread misperception has given rise to concerns about the security of future petroleum supply. Saudi Aramco believes that, at current rates of consumption, the world's resources are sufficient, even under conservative assumptions, to meet global demand for well over a century, and for nearly 200 years when technological advances are factored in.”
Page 14 – OIIP now 716 Gb but probably closer to 600 Gb
“These exploration activities aim to increase these “oil in place” resources from the current total of 716 billion barrels to 900 billion barrels and beyond within the next 20 years”
Page 15 – Two oil discoveries made but no info about estimated oil reserves
“The first, Mabruk, struck on April 26, is the first discovery in the Hadriyah reservoir south of Ghawar. The Mabruk-1 well flowed 5,600 bpd of Arabian Heavy oil with 2 million standard cubic feet per day (scfd) of gas. Under normal production conditions, the well is expected to flow at a higher rate. The following day, on April 27, the Dirwazah field was discovered in the Unayzah reservoir. The Dirwazah-1 well flowed 5,569 bpd of Arabian Light oil with 2.8 million scfd of gas.”
Page 23 – delays at Khursaniyah gas plant may cause further delays in Khursaniyah oil production
“Associated gas from Khursaniyah will be processed at Berri Gas Plant until the new Khursaniyah Gas Plant is completed. Scheduled to begin operations at the end of 2008, the new plant will process 1 billion scfd of associated gas from Khursaniyah, Abu Hadriyah, Fadhili and neighboring fields.”
Page 26 – Does Aramco really believe that oil production will increase to meet future demand?
“Just as global crude oil production must increase to meet the anticipated world demand of 116 million bpd by 2030 (a figure that is 37 percent higher than 2006 projections), there must be a parallel expansion in global refining capacity”
Page 29 – Aramco admits that their oil is becoming heavier.
“Considering that Saudi Aramco's oil production mix will grow heavier over time, the increase in domestic heavy crude oil processing will serve as an outlet, making lighter crude oil available for much-needed exports.”
Page 30 – Saudi Arabia now has 91 octane fuel, in addition to 95 octane fuel (ie export the 95 octane for higher prices rather than sell it at lower price domestically)
Motorists in Saudi Arabia began 2007 with two grades of gasoline available at the pump for the first time in 25 years — a choice that can lead to consumer savings in billions of Saudi riyals. Beginning January 1, Saudi Aramco began supplying a 91-octane gasoline, Premium 91, for domestic consumption. Premium 91 joined the company's existing 95-octane gasoline, known as Premium 95, for cost-efficiency reasons. Saudi Aramco determined that because 85 percent of the Kingdom's vehicles are designed to use a 91-octane gasoline, the use of the more expensive 95-octane fuel was a waste of money for the company and for consumers”
Page 45 – Pre-refining treatment of oil. This is smart as this treatment probably uses local natural gas to value add for Aramco, instead of the oil importer using their higher cost natural gas.
“In another technological development, Saudi Aramco is developing new pre-refining processes to desulfurize whole crude oil and produce sweetened oil. This step anticipates that less sweet crude will be available to global markets, and refiners will increasingly need to meet market requirements for lower sulfur-content clean fuels.”
Page 47 – Aramco is assessing heavy oil as a feedstock for hydrogen production
“The TNR catalysts displayed excellent performance on heavy naphtha, while further improvement is needed for heavier fuels.
…
The impact of successful TNR development will position liquid petroleum fuels as an environmentally sustainable and cost competitive source of hydrogen”
Page 50 – Above ground factors
“The most pressing issues facing our industry are above the surface, not underground”
Page 53 – Sulphur recovery increase while oil production has not changed much over the same time period. In 2003, sulphur recovery was 2.2 metric tons. In 2007 it was 3.1 metric tons. Sweet oil production is probably decreasing as sour oil become predominant.
Page 58 – Crude oil exports dropped 5% from 2.54 Gb in 2006 to 2.41 Gb in 2007. NGL (excluding ethane) exports increased from 285 mb in 2006 to 287 mb in 2007.
Aramco's 2007 Review makes statements that really should be questioned by the IEA, government officials and the public.
Saudi Aramco's cumulative crude oil production to end of Dec 2007 is about 109 Gb (using OPEC's 2006 annual statistical bulletin, 2007 data and excluding Neutral Zone)
Page 4 of the Aramco 2007 Review says that Aramco's remaining reserves is 260 Gb. (unaudited and probably closer to 100 Gb)
Page 14 says Aramco OIIP (Oil initially in place) is 716 Gb. (unaudited and probably closer to 600 Gb)
Aramco wants the public to believe that their average recovery factor is a wishful overoptimistic 52% for all their fields ((260+109)/716, probably closer to 35%(100+109)/600)
Page 19 - Aramco reconfirms that the average worldwide recovery factor is 33%. "The discovery indicates that worldwide, there's about twice as much oil left in the ground following production of a field as was obtained during production."
There is a huge difference between 33% and 52%, yet Aramco continues their propaganda campaign with general public acceptance of their massively overinflated reserves figures.
The percentage recovery from reservoirs varies widely. Rock permeability and oil viscosity are some of the factors.
Aramco has a strategy to maximize ultimate recovery (many IOCs prefer faster depletion and a higher IRR).
Northern Ghawar has excellent permeability for example.
I do not see an inherent contradiction between a world average of 33% and an Aramco average of 52%. Good reservoirs combined with patient exploitation can give above average results.
Although I very much doubt Saudi claims.
Alan
Hi Alan,
You think 52% average for Aramco is OK?
Could you please explain why.
Tony
Almost all of KSA reservoirs share common geology (AFAIK). Some near Riyadh do not. And part of that geology results in better than world average reservoir rock.
Bakken will have 1% (maybe 1.5%) recovery, way below average. Others get 10% and 12% recovery. My impression is that KSA rock is above average (5 to 10K barrels/day wells do not come from tight rock). Average them and get 1/3rd recovery. There is wide variance in recovery %s.
Northern Ghawar has quite porous rock and development has been optimized for maximum recovery (IOCs wanted to more than double production but vetoed by Kingdom in 1970s).
Also, quick recovery (typical for IOCs, especially in areas with political risk) leaves more oil behind. Aramco is quite patient, ideal for maximum recovery. Perhaps an extra 4% or 5% recovery from just that factor ? (Every reservoir is unique)
Assuming that tertiary recovery is used on North Ghawar one day, and production is stretched out till 2100+, my amateur estimate is that 60% recovery is within reach without any improved technology. And it is a heroic assumption that there will be no improved technology by 2100. North Ghawar will have a VERY long tail ! (See the abused East Texas field, still producing 1 million b/day, 99% water).
The following factors will improve recovery % "above the average"
High permeability reservoir rock
NO reservoir abuse, produced for maximum recovery
Above average technology & investment
52% may, or may not, be overstated.
Best Hopes for High Recovery %,
Alan
Hello Ace,
Thxs for this link and your following analysis--Kudos!
As posted before: it only makes sense for any FF-producer/exporter to extract the sulfur as early in the refining [or pre-refining] process as possible--like FFs for energy, sulfur and/or sulfuric acid is a critical Element for almost any value-added industrial process, especially for I-NPK products, which uses over 60% of global sulfur supplies [source: USGS PDF].
For newbies: a ton of crude is roughly 7 or 8 barrels; 7 X $130/barrel = $910/ton. I would expect spot prices for a ton of sulfur to be roughly equally priced. From memory: in an earlier link posted several months ago, New Zealand has already paid $900/ton for sulfur.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Oil: The only way is up 3:36 VIDEO
NYMEX oil trader says the price of crude will continue to climb as global demand increases at a rapid pace.
Oil: The only way is up
Thanks for that. Concise, and to the point.
Is demand destruction happening ?
The Department of Transportation said figures from March show the steepest decrease in driving ever recorded.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/26/gas.driving/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
"Is demand destruction happening ?"
We won't have to guess.
As less is used the standard of living must go down.
There is no other way.
Ex-
"This, in turn, has led people searching for a reasonable return to shift their bets to commodities on the premise that The United States will ultimately collapse under the weight of the fraud; that is, The Fed will choose to debase the debt of its host nation while Congress issues even more trash paper rather than force its patrons to recognize their losses and deal with the potential insolvency that may result.
So far this has proven to be an accurate bet."
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
The cycle has come round again. America is where
Anatolia was. It is a place where human beings, just
to stay alive, have to jump, to dance, & by dancing
revive the rhythms, recover cyclical time. Anarchic
& pantheistic dancers no longer sense the artifice
& its linear His-story as All, but as merely one
cycle, one long night, a stormy night that left Earth
wounded, but a night that ends, as all nights end,
when the sun rises.
— Fredy Perlman, Against His-story, Against Leviathan!
Kunstler has a great sense of humor. I love this "no combination" stuff. We only need one source of long-lasting, clean base-load electric energy.