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DrumBeat: August 27, 2008
Posted by Leanan on August 27, 2008 - 10:03am
Topic: Miscellaneous
US heating oil dealers clamp down on unpaid bills
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. heating oil dealers are using new software to weed out clients who may not pay their bills as Americans gear up for another winter of high fuel costs in the world's top consumer.Heating oil dealers in New York City, Long Island, and Connecticut have turned to real-time information software provided by a consumer reporting agency that allows data-sharing to track delinquent clients -- a more common problem with the rise in prices.
"In many cases, delinquent oil bills don't get posted to the large credit-reporting agencies," said John Maniscalco, executive vice president of the New York Oil Heating Association. "Given the current situation of the industry where bills are large and consumers are getting shut off, they tend to jump from one company to another."
Mystery of Greenland's Ice Lingers as Sheet Shrinks
Scientists have cautioned that a warming planet could melt Greenland's vast ice sheet, a potentially catastrophic event that would raise sea levels and inundate coastal communities around the globe.Yet while they puzzle over when and whether this might happen, they're also mystified over how the giant island formed so much ice in the first place. Greenland's ice sheet is the second largest in the world, behind only Antarctica.
Strangely, other parts of the globe at similar latitudes, including northern Canada and Siberia, don't have year-round patches of ice anywhere near as extensive or thick.
A new study finds that a mysterious drop in greenhouse gases around 3 million years ago allowed Greenland's ice to proliferate. The research could help with forecasts about the fate of the ice and the potential for rising seas.
Nexen Removes Some Workers From Gulf Platforms on Storm Threat
(Bloomberg) -- Nexen Inc., the Canadian producer that owns fields in the Gulf of Mexico, said it began removing some workers from oil and gas platforms as Tropical Storm Gustav may threaten the region.
Don't blame us for high gasoline prices, retailer group says
OTTAWA — Consumers feeling pain at the pumps got no relief Wednesday from Canadian gasoline producers and retailers, who brought a don't-blame-us message to a Commons committee investigating high energy prices.MPs are studying how a barrel of crude oil could jump from about $70 (U.S.) to above $140 within a year, and what role speculators may have played in the rise.
Even "green" energy needs lower oil price
LONDON/LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - As a lengthening economic slowdown bites, the antidote for the renewable energy sector may come as a surprise -- a lower oil price.Government subsidies and record prices for competing fossil fuels have underpinned the alternative energy boom, but now they are now starting to work against the sector.
Energy Company Agrees to Disclose Global Warming Risks
ALBANY, N.Y. — The New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo said Thursday that the power company, Xcel Energy, had agreed to disclose risks to investors from its stake in coal-burning power plants and any related liability from global warming, lawsuits and new regulations or laws.Coal plants can significantly contribute to climate change, Mr. Cuomo said “and investors have the right to know all the associated risks.”
Report: Climate Shift Could Profoundly Alter Md. Shore
Climate change could profoundly alter Maryland in the next century, swallowing 200 square miles of low-lying land, making heat waves more deadly, and allowing Southern species to colonize its woodlands and the Chesapeake Bay, according to a new state report.The "Climate Action Plan," released today by the state's Commission on Climate Change, says that "Maryland is poised in a very precarious position" if temperatures continue to warm. It says the state is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, because of its long, winding coastline.
Petrobras Finds Offshore Oil in Deep Water Campos Basin Field
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, found oil in an offshore well in the Campos Basin more than 6,800 meters (22,310 feet) below the ocean surface, the country's petroleum regulator said.
Peak oil and Mexico: The socioeconomic impacts of Cantarell’s decline
Reduced oil exports from Mexico will have far reaching implications. At the global level, an increasingly inelastic production chain will be drawn that much tighter. For the United States, a stable source of supply will be eroded to the detriment of both reliability and energy security.As important as these consequences are, however, they pale in significance compared to the impact reduced oil production will have on the people of Mexico – a nation which has literally changed its socioeconomic profile with billions in revenues from oil exports. Record revenues pay for schools, roads, hospitals, and other important societal infrastructure.
Fuel costs reduce Air NZ's earnings
Spiralling fuel costs have lopped 24% off Air New Zealand's normalised earnings and the national carrier is predicting a potential transtasman "bloodbath" with increasing competition coming into the sector.
Plan seeks neighborhood leaders in capital city
MONTPELIER – Nearly 75 residents gathered Monday evening from 14 designated neighborhoods to figure out how to keep their neighbors safe and warm this winter.The meeting was part of Montpelier's CAN! – Capital Area Neighborhoods, an emergency planning project to aid the city in responding to emergencies this upcoming winter season.
New bike commuters hit the classroom, then the road
The rush of new cyclists, created by high gas prices, is driving up demand for bike safety classes.
As Americans fill trains, frustration grows
Rising costs of traveling by air and car, brought on by record oil prices, drew a record 2.8 million people onto America's cash-strapped passenger railway network in July, the largest of any single month in Amtrak's 37-year history and up nearly 14 percent from a year earlier.But as passenger numbers grow, so too are complaints of overcrowding and delays.
Former FirstEnergy engineer guilty on 3 of 5 counts
The four-member defense team claimed throughout the trial that Mr. Siemaszko was set up by the NRC, the Department of Justice, and the utility as a scapegoat for the near-catastrophe at the plant in Ottawa County.Mr. Siemaszko's attorneys maintained he was trying to get Davis-Besse's old reactor head fixed in 2000.
Upon inspection in early April of 2002, the head was found in a near-ruptured state - the worst ever for an in-service U.S. nuclear reactor. Its dangerous condition was blamed on years of neglect and a massive cover-up.
Subsequent laboratory tests showed it was a statistical fluke that it held together. If it hadn't, deadly radioactive steam would have formed in containment for the first time since the half-core meltdown of Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island Unit 2 nuclear plant in 1979.
Richard Heinberg: GM Pines for Electric Car
In just two years we’ve gone from a film documentary called Who Killed the Electric Car? to an article in Canada’s Globe and Mail titled Who Revived the Electric Car?. This is a deliciously ironic turn of events.Those of us who understand the perils of oil dependency have been advocating the electrification of transport for years: not only can an electric transport system access renewable sources of energy like solar and wind, but electric motors are far more efficient than internal combustion engines, so electric cars use less energy than gasoline-fed cars do—and emit less CO2 even if their power comes ultimately from a coal-fired generating plant.
Peak phosphorus: Quoted reserves vs. production history
By fitting a bell curve to historical phosphate production data, the best fit is obtained by assuming an ultimate recoverable resource of approximately 9 billion tonnes (of which about 6.3 billion tonnes have already been mined). This yields a peak in around 1990. Of course, the USGS claims an ultimate recoverable resource of some 24.3 billion tonnes (i.e. 18 billion remaining), however using this value yields a bell curve that is an inferior match to the historical data. A hypothesis is thus presented whereby phosphorus is considered in two broad forms: “easy” which is able to be mined quickly, but already peaked in 1990, and “hard” which has large remaining reserves and is yet to peak, but cannot be mined as quickly. (In reality there are probably many different forms ranging from very easy to very hard.) Just as with oil, estimates that lump all types of reserve in together will yield a theoretical peak that is high and distant, however the true system may involve periods of decline after exhausting easy-to-get reserves before other supplies come online to replace them. Ultimately we must develop a recyclable phosphorus supply if humans are to continue living on this planet.
Gustav May Rival Katrina as It Advances Toward Gulf of Mexico
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. oil and natural gas producers are beginning evacuations in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Gustav, which may become the costliest hurricane since Katrina and Rita in 2005, heads toward the region.``We could see 50 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production shut in,'' said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.
Energy prices rose as the storm was forecast to regain hurricane strength on a track toward Louisiana and the offshore fields responsible for about a quarter of U.S. oil production and 15 percent of gas output.
Arctic sea ice melts to second worst on record
WASHINGTON - New satellite measurements show that crucial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has plummeted to its second lowest level on record.The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., announced Wednesday that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic is down to 2.03 million square miles. The lowest point on record is 1.65 million square miles set last September. With about three weeks left in the melt season, the record may fall, scientists say.
Pakistan: Protests against loadshedding go violent
TANK: The angry residents staged rallies at main bazaar here Tuesday and set on fire the Pesco office in protest against loadshedding, reducing all the records to ashes.Sources said hundreds of residents took out a protest procession, marching through main bazaar, reached Pesco office.
Eyewitnesses said the angry protestors forced their entry into the Pesco office where they ransacked and burnt the furniture and official records. Policemen remained silent spectators and could not stop the protestors from destroying the furniture and records of Pesco office.
Today, cracks are visible on the Mexican veneer. Violence is raging, as frustration from the lack of economic opportunities forces people to resort to narcotrafficking and kidnapping as a way to survive. So-called revolutionary groups are reappearing, blowing up pipelines and extorting businesses. In less than two years, Pemex will squeeze the last remaining oil out of Cantarell. This will be a body blow to the government’s fiscal accounts. The monopoly rents generated in telecommunications, media and cement may have produced some of the wealthiest men on the planet, but it saddled the economy with enormous costs and bottlenecks. The unwillingness of the victors of the Mexican Revolution to give quarter means that they will probably have to be dislodged by force. Unfortunately, the clock is running out. With less than two years to go until the 10th year of the new millennium, history suggests that another bloody revolution may be somewhere on the horizon.
Alabama Power asks regulators for major rate hike
NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Alabama Power Co. has asked the Public Service Commission to raise rates for residential customers by 14.6 percent due to rising costs for coal and natural gas.
Olympic Torch Out; PetroChina Left With Pools Of Oil
The Olympic flame was extinguished on Sunday, leaving host nation China with a surfeit of fuel oil.China’s nine-month spree importing refined petroleum products is likely to end in the fall, as the close of the Summer Games spells surplus inventories of gasoline and diesel. A slackening of demand in the world’s second-biggest oil consumer may help ease upward pressure on global oil prices.
U.S. Clears Way for Pemex Pipeline, El Paso Times Reports
(Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, may receive a permit to extend a pipeline into the U.S. next month after the U.S. State Department issued an environmental study on the project, the El Paso Times reported.
The 100-Year Gap in Understanding
When I was in college I took a course on the great political philosophers. Soon I had them all lined up with their respective eras: Hobbes and the 18th-century monarchies, Locke and the American Revolution, Kant and 19th-century nation-states.Then I chanced to see a timeline of their births and deaths. To my amazement, each had lived 100 years before I had placed him. The lesson seemed plain. It takes about 100 years for ideas to enter history.
It has been the same with nuclear power. The potential of nuclear energy was first formulated in 1905 in Einstein’s famous equation, E=mc2. Most people know it by now. Mariah Carey even named her latest album after it. But its true significance has not yet been recognized.
SAfrica seeks firms to reprocess nuclear fuel
CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - South Africa is seeking commercial contracts with foreign companies to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, a senior official said on Wednesday.The country plans to expand its nuclear industry and diversify its energy mix as it battles a crippling power shortage which has hit key mining, smelting and manufacturing sectors, trimming growth in Africa's strongest economy.
Sims seeks increase in Metro bus fares
"Here in King County, just as our ridership is surging, higher fuel costs and lower tax revenues from a faltering economy are creating a growing deficit in our Metro budget," Sims said in a blog on his Web site, http://ronsims.wordpress.com/. "We must do all we can to keep our buses running and maintain our existing transit service."
Natural Farming Pioneer Fukuoka Masanobu Dies, 95 Years Old
Fukuoka Masanobu, Japan's great-grandfather of natural farming, has passed away on August 16. He became 95 years old. Many people are probably familiar with his books, that were translated to English, Spanish and many other languages. One-Straw Farming is perhaps the best known of Fukuoka-sensei's many works. In 1988 Fukuoka received the Deshikottam Award, India's most prestigious award, and the Philippines' Ramon Magsaysay Award for Public Service. In 1997 he received the Earth Council Award, which honors politicians, businesspersons, scholars, and non-governmental organizations for their contributions to sustainable development.
Schweitzer Speech Energizes the Convention
Mark Warner was tonight's keynote speaker, but it was the raucous Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer who worked the crowd into a frenzy, delivering a kinetic speech about--of all things--energy policy.It's hard to imagine anybody getting quite that fired up about energy policy in 2004.
Schweitzer's remarks (a prepared transcript of which is available on our site, conveniently) invoked John Kennedy's goal to put Americans on the moon. Energy is the challenge of the 21st century.
"We face a great new challenge, a world energy crisis that threatens our economy, our security, our climate and our way of life," Schweitzer began. The sort of line any politician might utter. But then Schweitzer took it personal, saying McCain's support for expanded drilling was an unrealistic solution even "if you drilled in all of Senator McCain's back yards, even the ones he doesn't know he has."
Kyrgyzstan sees slower growth, starts power cuts
BISHKEK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan said on Wednesday its economy would slow next year and it would introduce electricity rationing to save energy for the coming winter.The impoverished Central Asian nation relies on hydroelectric plants for its energy needs, but discharged too much water from its main reservoir last winter due to extreme cold. Its grain crops have suffered from drought.
Rush for oil reaches Britain's fields
At first glance Britain's green fields and ancient woodlands have little in common with deserts of Saudi Arabia or the Texas plains - but the oil deep beneath parts of the UK could be the next frontier in the bid to beat the energy crisis.
Rumours have circulated for months that South Rub Al Khali (Srak), a Shell/Aramco gas exploration joint venture, may have found commercial quantities of gas in the vast undeveloped desert region while drilling its fourth exploratory well, named Kidan 6.Shell said today the well is still being drilled and the company hopes to learn more when it is completed later this year.
But earlier today, a Reuters report citing industry sources said Srak had not discovered a new hydrocarbon system, but had merely reconfirmed a 30-year-old Aramco discovery.
Iran warns Israel it will retaliate for any military attack
Tehran - Iran on Wednesday once again warned Israel with retaliation in case of a military attack on its nuclear sites, Mehr news agency reported. It quoted the commander of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, as saying that if Israel endangered Iran's interests, the Islamic state would make the whole of Israeli territory "unsafe."
“A lot of people are concerned about sea level rise in coastal areas, which is obviously a very serious and legitimate concern, but I think that the kinds of problems we’re projecting here in New Mexico, in some ways are worse—and they are going to hit us faster,” Jim Norton, director of the Environment Protection Division within the New Mexico Environment Department, says.Norton points to scientists’ projections that the southwestern United States will experience longer droughts. Longer droughts, combined with hotter temperatures, will cause greater evaporation—from soils and reservoirs—so the effects of the droughts will also be more severe. “You can argue,” he says, “that we’re going to get hit harder and faster than the coastal areas that get so much attention.”
Did you know more people travel on Saturday at 1 p.m. than during typical rush hours? That only 16 percent of daily trips are to work? Where's everybody going? Given that Americans spend all the money they make, and bury their credit cards in debt to buy more things, "it should come as little surprise," Vanderbilt writes, "that much of our increase in driving stems from trips to the mall."Perhaps most eye-opening is Vanderbilt's declaration that "the way we drive is responsible for a good part of our traffic problems." That's right, it's not what urban philosophers Lewis Mumford, Jane Jacobs, James Howard Kunstler and, well, my brother and I, in our 1993 book, "Where the Road and the Sky Collide: America Through the Eyes of Its Drivers," have been saying all along -- we are burning in traffic hell for our greedy sins of rampant urban sprawl.
No, what's gumming up the highways are hideously self-absorbed drivers who weave in and out of lanes -- creating a chain reaction of people stepping on the brakes -- desperate to get to some utterly inane appointment for which they think they can't be late.
Oil prices climb above $117 on Hurricane Gustav
LONDON (AFP) - World oil prices rallied Wednesday on the back of concerns that Hurricane Gustav may head for the Gulf of Mexico where many US energy installations are located, analysts said.The market was meanwhile on tenterhooks ahead of the traditional weekly update on US crude inventories.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in October, gained 1.41 dollars to 117.68 dollars per barrel in electronic deals, after Hurricane Gustav had slammed into Haiti on Tuesday.
Energy industry expected to begin Gulf of Mexico evacuations today
Evacuations of oil and gas rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to begin in earnest today in preparation for Hurricane Gustav.Royal Dutch Shell began making arrangements on Tuesday to evacuate staff not essential to production or drilling operations.
Energy Price Prediction `More Difficult,' EIA's Caruso Says
(Bloomberg) -- Predicting energy prices is ``more difficult'' now because of the lack of sufficient information from emerging economies, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.``No one could've predicted'' recent record energy prices, Guy Caruso, administrator of the agency, said today at a press conference in Washington sponsored by Platts. Caruso, 66, announced earlier this month that he will step down on Sept. 3 as head of the agency, which is the statistical arm of the Energy Department.
Russia coal exporters told to prioritise domestic supply
LONDON (Reuters) - Russian coal exporters were told by Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov to prioritise domestic coal supply for the balance of this year over exports at a meeting held on August 7, coal industry sources said.Russian power plants have extremely low stocks of coal and the lowest hydro reserves for decades.
There are not enough rail cars available to move domestic coal and coal for export so to avoid power cuts domestic coal supply must be given priority, exporters were told.
UK: MPs call for energy windfall tax
Prime Minister Gordon Brown is facing mounting pressure from Labour MPs for a one-off windfall tax on energy firms which have recorded huge profits.More than 80, some of them ministerial aides, say the money should go towards helping poor families pay energy bills.
New Arguments For Offshore Drilling
The Santa Barbara Board of Supervisors plans to hold a symbolic vote today in favor of lifting the ban against offshore drilling.Refreshingly, the Sups aren't repeating the abundantly false claim that offshore drilling will bring down the price of gas at the pump. Instead, they are interested in revenue and jobs new drilling sites could generate. While fears of peak oil are largely responsible for holding the American economy in the doldrums, the weakened economy increases political pressure to look for jobs, revenues—and the very oil many think we won't find.
Ex-BP CEO Browne: Oil Demand, Not Supply Will Peak Oil
STAVANGER -(Dow Jones)- The ex-chief executive of BP PLC John Browne said Tuesday that he expects falling oil demand to bring oil prices down, rather than an increase of supply.Speaking at the Offshore Northern Seas conference in Stavanger Norway, Browne said: "Oil demand, not supply, will peak oil."
Saudi may face OPEC pressure to trim supply
LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, may come under pressure from within OPEC ranks to reduce supplies to prevent a further fall in crude prices when the group meets on Sept. 9.While OPEC is unlikely to change its official supply target at the meeting in Vienna, it is pumping almost 1 million barrels per day (bpd) more than the target largely because of an increase from Saudi Arabia.
ConocoPhillips to sell gas stations for $800 mln
NEW YORK (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips is expected to sell the remainder of its 600 company-owned gasoline stations to PetroSun West LLC for $800 million, according to a source familiar with the deal.With the sale, ConocoPhillips, which operates the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76 brands in the United States and JET brand in Europe, would become the latest major oil company to exit the low-margin retail business that has been squeezed by surging prices at the pump that had topped $4 per gallon in the United States.
Oversupply of natural gas dulls luster of exploration and production companies
HOUSTON: Independent exploration and production companies have tantalizingly low valuations thanks to a commodity sell-off, but concerns about a supply glut of natural gas in the United States will likely limit near-term investor interest.
Exxon to pay out 75% of Valdez damages
SEATTLE — — Exxon Mobil Corp. has agreed to pay out 75 per cent of a $507.5-million (U.S.) damages ruling to settle the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska, the Anchorage Daily News reported on Tuesday.
Gazprom Leads Surge in Russian Debt Risk to Five-Month High
(Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom led a jump in the cost of protecting Russian companies from default to the highest in almost five months on investor concern the country's military incursion in Georgia will trigger a rise in borrowing costs.Credit-default swaps on the world's largest natural-gas producer increased 39 basis points to 263 this month, and Moscow-based oil-pipeline operator OAO Transneft rose 28.5 to 260, according to at CMA Datavision prices at 1:15 p.m. in London. Contracts on Russia's government debt climbed 34 to 136, the highest since April 2.
Gunmen kidnap Israeli in Nigerian oil city
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - Gunmen kidnapped an Israeli expatriate from his residence in Nigeria's oil hub of Port Harcourt, a security official in the restive Niger Delta region said on Wednesday. The security source, who asked not to be named, said the Israeli was abducted on Tuesday evening. No group has yet claimed responsibility.More than 200 foreigners have been seized in the Niger Delta, the heart of the country's oil sector, since early 2006. Almost all have been released unharmed.
Canada to sell Obama, McCain on tar sands
DENVER–The Canadian government is embarking on an aggressive sales campaign with the White House candidates to counter the "dirty oil" label that U.S. environmentalists and some politicians are tagging on Canadian exports.
Dow's Liveris argues that innovation, not politics, can solve energy/climate crisis
Fifty percent of the fossil fuel used in the history of man "has been burned since 1985," said Randy Udall, of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. "Historians are going to look back on this and call it the Big Bonfire."Advocates for coal, natural gas and conservation all made cases that their commodities, or approaches, could provide the bridge to America's energy future. But Liveris championed an asset that he said Dow Chemical has capitalized on for decades.
"The price point of energy is going upwards, and staying upwards, so we have to put all resources into play," he said. "At Dow, the solution we provide is people. ... I know the innovation capability of this nation.
Putting on the Dog: Celebrating 25 years with Philly’s greenest restaurateur
“I believe very strongly that building sustainable local economies is about our survival in the age of climate change and peak oil, which will increasingly disrupt and weaken long distance supply lines. I’ve seen a huge increase in interest building local economies. People instinctively know that gaining local self-reliance by producing basic needs at home—especially food and energy—is important to our long term health and security."
Europe sets date when deaths overtake births: 7 years
BRUSSELS: Since its historic reunification almost two decades ago, Germany has been easily the European Union's most populous nation, with 20 million more inhabitants than its closest rival.But by 2050 Britons, who both reproduce more and allow more immigration, are likely to outnumber Germans and within a further 10 years France, too, should have leapfrogged its eastern neighbor in the population rankings.
The findings come in an official EU study, released Tuesday, which concedes for the first time that Europeans will begin their long foreseen demographic decline in just seven years' time - the point at which deaths exceed births.
Boone Pickens Hits Bottom, Bounces Back, Rings Oil Alarm
Having established his credentials, Pickens moves on to his management tips -- ``help, don't hinder'' -- and a blunt summary of why we need to accept that the world is running out of oil.``The Saudis claim they have 260 billion barrels in reserve,'' he writes. ``I don't believe them.''
U.S. wind power strangled by antiquated power grid
WASHINGTON: When the builders of the Maple Ridge Wind Farm spent $320 million to erect nearly 200 windmills in upstate New York, the idea was to get paid for producing electricity. But at times, regional electric lines have been so congested that Maple Ridge has been forced to shut down even with a brisk wind blowing.That is a symptom of a broad national problem. Expansive dreams about renewable energy, like Al Gore's hope of replacing all fossil fuels in a decade, are bumping up against the reality of a power grid that cannot handle the new demands.
The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not.
Japan firms to work on solar-powered ship
TOKYO: The race to go green has taken to the high seas with two Japanese companies saying they would begin work on the world's first ship to have propulsion engines partially powered by solar energy.Japan's biggest shipping line Nippon Yusen KK and Nippon Oil Corp said solar panels capable of generating 40 kilowatts of electricity would be placed on top of a 60,000 tonne car carrier to be used by Toyota Motor Corp.
Former president warns of global warming
Speaking to a panel of other ex-world leaders, Clinton said the real issue is whether democracies can deliver after elections are over.American and world leaders must return their focus to great challenges like global warming once their fascination with the U.S. presidential campaign ends, Clinton said.
Weather risk hedging seen boosting global economy
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Insuring against weather-related calamity in this era of global warming might seem the work of bean counters and actuaries.But a study by WeatherBill, an Internet firm offering weather-related risk cover for individuals, as well as companies and governments, says the global economy could expand by up to $258 billion if such contracts were more widely purchased.
The greatest failure of thought in human history
Earth is warming because humans, primarily in industrialized nations, suffer from systems blindness. We have failed to recognize the effects of our insatiable use of fossil fuels, massive resource consumption, and huge emission of waste, including greenhouse gasses, on the ecological and social systems we depend on for life. That blindness threatens all life forms today and in the future.Overcoming systems blindness requires a shift to what can be called "sustainable thinking." A growing number of private and public organizations and everyday citizens have shown that it is possible to think sustainably. They use a four-step process: discover, dream, design, and act.
Off-topic/
Since installing the latest version of Firefox the comment rating feature doesn't show anymore. Not that I used it much, but still.
SuperG removed it temporarily, because it wasn't working properly. He's working on fixing it.
Linked uptop:
I guess Matt Simmons, among others, has been declared to be a non-person. Our contribution, from our (Khebab/Brown) top five net exporters paper:
Interesting that major oil companies continue to bail out of retail gasoline stations, despite assertions by some, such as ExxonMobil, that oil production won't peak for decades to come:
"The economy is doing great"
"There is no housing bubble"
"We'll spread peace and democracy"
Don't forget R-squared's + other TODer's earlier price bet either. IMO, both won their predictions at the $100 pricepoint Jan. 1st.
No one could have predicted that this administration would be a disaster. Oh, wait. Does not Caruso realize the irony and utter stupidity of his comment?
But look at what EIA's current predictions look like:
According to the agency's annual energy outlook, prices will fall to a low of $57 a barrel in 2016 and then reach about $70 in 2030.
That must be in the Saudi Arabia local market after the worldwide recession has stopped all trade. I think oil could easily see north of $1000/bbl before world trade falls apart.
Dinner for two at Wendys will cost $70 in 2030-at least your gas to drive there will be dirt cheap.
I think Wendy's business model breaks down around $10/sandwich?
$70 in 2030 is after they erase 8 zero's from the 100 billion dollar bill.
Any sensible person knows that the future is unknowable in detail. The EIA is just letting other sensible people know, for sure, that they have absolutely no idea what the future price will be. It's just their politically correct way of saying it since their paymaster politicians have asked them to make a prediction.
The question is, are the politicians sensible people?
I disagree-the EIA is making a loud public statement that they believe that oil will be so cheap in 2030 that any talk of oil supply is a total waste of time.
Actually: It will be $57.28634 on May 17th 2016.
This is pure craziness. Obviously oil is going to be $57.30 on the 16th... And 5 decimal places! Jesus. Even T. Boone Pickens only uses 4.
Seriously, I like Xeroid's take.
http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/#quotes
DVD: The Best of Baghdad Bob. Information Ministers Gone Wild!
Some more Gustav links...
New Orleans is preparing:
Jindal outlines tentative plan for Gustav evacuation
Dow Jones uses the word "shortage":
And Jeff Masters thinks we might have another Katrina on our hands, if Gustav passes over the loop eddy currently south of New Orleans.
I have loved New Orleans every time I have visited there, however I strongly suspect that portions of the city might have to be abandoned within the next 10 years. Being below sea-level, on the shore, and attempting to out-engineer nature when you're using the Corp of Engineers is a bit of a stretch in my book. I will likely earn the ire of Alan via this post, but I believe the resources that would be required to save New Orleans in the long run would be best spent elsewhere.
Please do not confuse my lack of empathy toward the STRUCTURES in the city as a lack of empathy for the PEOPLE in the structures. The people should be saved, no doubt. Maybe have the feds buy all of these foreclosed homes and permenantly relocate NOLA residents into them?
I think you're right. The people of the New Orleans are probably better off relocating...while the government still has the resources to pay for it. Like Stoneleigh used to say, if we're all going over the cliff anyway, there are advantages to jumping off first.
Many geologists are pushing for a "managed retreat from the coasts." I think a retreat is going to happen - managed or unmanaged. And not just on the Gulf Coast.
"The people of the New Orleans are probably better off relocating..."
OK. Here's the problem. NO can't be relocated.
35% of our oil/gas comes out of New Orleans.
Or this. New Orleans can be saved, by blowing a hole anywhere
in the South Levee of the MS River above New Orleans.
But then what would New Orleans exist for?
http://hurricane.lsu.edu/floodprediction/NewOrleans/new_orleans_elevatio...
"I wouldn't trust the levees," Terrance said. "The government let us down before, I definitely wouldn't stay no more."
But the U.S. Corps of Engineers maintains that the system is different now than then.
"TIME magazine reports that the US Army Corps of Engineers' water structures in the Midwest are the primary reason that there are more 500-year floods occurring.
In the Midwest, as in New Orleans, water and flood structures built by the US Army Corps of Engineers are magnifying flooding.
http://blog.nola.com/levees/2008/06/corps_of_engineers_work_is_mag.html
The Corps' job is simple:
The MS River will be maintained where it is using all available resources.
Oil/gas removal will not be hindered in any way shape or form.
Same with grain/fertilizer barge movement.
The Port of New Orleans cannot be relocated. The city can be.
The Port can be sustained by a city of 50,000 people. Everyone else can clear the hell out.
That's the "put a levee down Claiborne Ave method."
Also all refineries.
BTW-the Port of New Orleans basically goes for 30 miles upriver.
Maybe we keep the French Quarter and Garden District theme park as well.
Are you serious? The Feds should take a private debt crisis and nationalize it so that the average tax payer can bear the burden? I feel empathy for the NOLA folks too, but please don't ask me to bail out them and the crooks that created the housing bubble.
It's funny-a while ago Jim Willie (who runs an investing newsletter) made a long list of who is going to be bailed out-it seemed rather far out at the time but he might have nailed it. Included was Detroit, the major airlines, along with the major banks and investment houses (for starters). Isn't the free market grand?
Does Jim Willie have any predictions or a rough time table for our hyperinflationary spiral?
I wonder if Greenspan's trial will be on TV.
FYI http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/archive.html
It won't be hyperinflation, at least not at first - we get the mother of all deflations and it started last August.
It's never a free market when the public foots the bill.
The thing is...they're going to be bailed out anyway.
The Outer Banks of North Carolina are an egregious example. There are areas that were not supposed to be rebuilt, for environmental reasons. And it's not like it was poor people living there, either. They were wealthy people's summer homes. Fran wiped them out, and instead of doing what we said we were going to do, we bailed them out. Because it was such a terrible disaster.
And now instead of being dotted with one million dollar homes, it's dotted with two million dollar homes. Built in harm's way, because they know they'll be bailed out.
I say, bail them out if we must...but do not allow them to rebuild in harm's way.
Slidell, Pearlington, Bay St Louis, Pass Christian-
the Coast East of NO that got a 28 ft flood surge
are still waiting.
A Pic of how much land has turned to water in SE LA,
formerly guarding NO which now sits on the GOM>
http://www.saveourlake.org/images/Katrina/Breton_sound.jpg
Bloomberg:
Gustav to rival GOM.
The NHC had better be wrong.
Or crude should be $30 higher the BBL.
Your pic is three years old. Might want to try something more recent, no?
Cheers
I would have to agree with you. Some portions of the city like the Lower Ninth Ward should have been allowed to become part of the lake after Katrina. From a tax dollar management perspective it would make more sense to build some planned communities on higher ground northwest of the city and use one of Alan's electrified trains to get workers into the city. The port is far too important to abandon but that doesn't mean we need to house 50,000 residents under water. My city of Grand Forks, ND was hammered by record flooding in 1997. The lowest and most flood prone land in the city was bought out by FEMA. Some 700 homes were removed and the land was turned into a park that is allowed to flood. That is 700 homes that will not be flooded and bailed out in the next event.
That is what happened in Hilo, Hawaii after two devastating tsunamis. The buildings were moved back from the waterfront, and now there are large parks and sports fields between downtown and the ocean. The parks are considered a memorial to those who lost their lives in the disasters.
Again. Look at this map.
you have to go 30 miles in any direction.
And Chemical Alley occupies everything to the West.
New Orleans must be moved, but it can't be moved.
Which is why all activities since Katrina have been so erratic.
The Corps, LSU, Society of Engineers all know that NO where it is
is doomed:
"“New Orleans continues to sink,” Edge says, “but determining how much the city is sinking is almost impossible because the survey monuments are sinking as well. New Orleans is going down so fast, surveyors can’t keep up with it. To accommodate the rate of relative sea-level rise, reference points have to be continually adjusted and protection measures designed accordingly.
http://engineering.tamu.edu/research/magazine/2006/levees/
"Large areas of the metro area that may have had minor street flooding before will now have 2 to 3 feet (0.7-0.9 metres) on top of that -- significant home flooding -- because of the Corps' failure to build adequate pumping capacity for this hurricane season," Louisiana Sen. David Vitter said in a statement after the Corps released the maps.
"Our whole recovery is at stake," the Republican lawmaker said.
The problem stems from the Corps' decision to close the entrances to city drainage canals with floodgates, which would keep out the storm surge that devastated the city during Katrina, when 80 percent of the city flooded.
But the Corps' plan also makes it harder to empty low-lying New Orleans of pooling rainwater, and critics say the Army needs to speed plans to add more pumps to compensate."
http://www.redorbit.com/news/general/591082/floodgates_could_raise_new_o...
Moving New Orleans will destroy the culture. We do *NOT* want to be part of American Suburbia. That exists a mile from the Parish limits.
My hope was that LUCK could see us through to 2011, (originally 2010) when the US Army would finally deliver what they promised in 1967 (assuming no further malfeasance). Good Cat 3 direct hit protection, and glancing Cat 4 & 5 protection.
A day too early to worry yet.
Best Hopes,
Alan
AlanfromBigEasy -
Perhaps one way to save New Orleans would be to move it piece by piece to Dubai and turn it into a giant theme park, pehaps situated right next to their indoor ski resort. Wuddayathink?
New Orleans is the *LEAST* Islamic city in the USA (beating LV by a xxx hair),
Alan
I might have to agree with you on this Alan. We definitely have you when it comes to the sheer volume of debauchery, but the sin here is tainted by the domination of most political and social institutions by uptight conservative Mormons. Only in a very dysfunctional city would advertising like this:
be commonplace (on billboards, mobile billboards, handbills, magazines, newspapers etc) and yet prostitution remain illegal (even though it is legal in most other counties in the state). Go figure.
One area where we definitely have you "out sinned" by Islamic standards is in the consumption of alcohol. Taverns for locals here never close. 24/7/365 you can get drunk. The good news, you never have to worry about last call. The bad news, the likelihood of some drunk smashing into you at 9:00 AM is greatly increased!
I've never been to NO, but I've always wanted to go.
Best hopes for Gustav marking landfall somewhere that is above sea level.
Our bars only close when the next shift bartender does not show up (it happens). One stayed open all throughout Katrina, serving warm beer and free alcohol for cuts (we even had an abbreviated "Southern Decadence" parade while waiting for FEMA to show up). I suspect that LV keeps those displays behind closed doors.
We were the most gay friendly city in the USA before WW II, SF took that title from us after WW II (all discharged gay servicemen in the Pacific were dropped off in SF).
Las Vegas is commercial decadence, ours is natural, organic :-)
Alan
I think there's no space left there. The Ski Dubai ski slope is in the middle of the biggest shopping mall in the Middle East called the Mall of The Emirates.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mall_of_the_Emirates
But, knowing the people in Dubai, I'm sure they would be very interested in your idea ... and in my experience Dubai is the least Islamic of the Middle Eastern states so NO should fit in well. (as an example an expat can get a licence to legally obtain alcohol) :-)
Buy one of the "geographically close" islands of The World.
Transport the French Quarter brick by brick.
Done.
Something might go missing in the translation though ...
With a :-)
Pete
Buy one that is below sea level for true authenticity? ... I think that will happen automatically soon enough with rising sea levels, so you should be able to take your pick, be proactive, buy now to ensure your spot ... much of the 'infrastructure' Alan craves is already there eg: in my experience Dubai has plenty of 'female distractions' to suit all tastes, no need to go looking ... IMO it is a very strange place ... but beware, I know how they treat the slaves but I'm not sure about their treatment of gays, best to check before you buy! :-)
A *LICENSE* to buy alcohol !?!
The old joke is that the drinking age in New Orleans is when you are old enough to put money on the counter without help.
Women "working" for beads by flashing, Southern Decadence parade and so MUCH more !
And worst of all, one does not get social status in New Orleans with just money. A MAJOR culture clash with Dubai !
Alan
If I may boldly go where angels fear to tread...
Let me see if I got everybody right here:
The preservation of a 300 year old + city, a heritage gem among gems of Americana, is now reduced to dollar and cents calculations and short-term risk assessment?
The only value NO has is as a port??
For heaven's sake keep the port of New Orleans open, but ship everybody else somewhere else?
All this in a culture where suburbia built within the last twenty years is "not negotiable"?
What a pity?
Looks like the pre-fab, rootless, displaced, instant gratification, market obsessed America will continue to make wise choices.
The bean counters triumph once again.
I would say, "explain this one to your great grand-children" except their inheritance will be squandered long before they pick up grandpa's hummer.
No wonder there is no leftest element left in American politics... for that to happen there has to be a mindset that will move beyond seeing everything strictly in terms of a cost-benefit ratio.
I share Alan's hope that NO will be spared this time around. Maybe the only way to keep America from pawning a family jewel.
The difference, of course, is that most of us here think suburbia is very much negotiable. Or if it's not negotiable, it's because it's freakin' doomed.
So you would not pawn a family jewel, even to keep your children from starving to death?
What if nothing you can do and no amount of money can possibly save the jewel?
Realize I'm preaching to the converted when I toss out a statement like: "suburbia is not negotiable." And... I know... these are Bush senior's words, not any of yours.
But it does capture a particular mindset that is rampant right now.
My main point is this: the United States is a very rich country. Sometimes I think the priorities are a little wacky.
The early French settlers built a lovely city on a swamp in a hurricane corridor and the rest, as they say, is history. Constant salvaging may not be a feasible or serious long term option, particularly if sea levels rise.
But I can't fathom where the US can build unsustainable "military bases" in the Iraqi desert and not redirect some attention to sustaining what has been around for 300+ years.
To me, this makes no sense.
We know the priorities are wacky. The biggest misallocation of resources in human history, etc.
But New Orleans got plenty of attention. They've gotten a lot of money for rebuilding.
And those of us here who don't think New Orleans can be saved, also think those military bases are an unsustainable waste of money.
If you truly believe that New Orleans is doomed, as many here do, then encouraging people to move there is downright evil. Those people are going to lose a lot of money, and maybe even their lives.
those darn frogs, keep wanting to put things in the wettest of places
My apologies to those of you who are French, couldn't resist:-)
On a serious note, I'll close with best wishes for everyone along the Gulf Coast. Hurricanes are disruptive and dangerous beasts.
Work's calling, have to scramble...
From this point will redirect to the informative stuff on the Gustav thread... good work folks.
They've gotten a lot of money for rebuilding.
If you mean "they" as politically connected R contributers, I would agree (only one GWB Cabinet Secretary caught with his hand in the till so far).
If you mean the cities, parishes and people of South Louisiana, I would disagree.
The French came in after Katrina and asked what was a critical priority that had to be done ASAP. "Fire protection in the flooded areas". The French said that they could not rebuild all 30+ fire houses, but they could do 5 in 30 days (one took 34 days). they later did two more.
Another half dozen have been rebuilt with private funds (I have attended a couple of benefits). FEMA is required by law to pay for rebuilding public infrastructure, but it took them 19 months to rebuild their first 7 firehouses and they are not yet done in New Orleans.
St. Bernard Parish finished their first rebuilt firehouse (out of 10) yesterday.
Many, many, many examples !!
Best Hopes for 5 more months !
Alan
Hi Alan and others,
This may be a silly question, but do they build stilt houses in NO? My uncle has a place in Key Largo on about 18 ft columns of rebar pounded down to the coral rock. He also has ballistic windows and doors rated to 165 mph winds. Total added cost to the house was about 300k. All of this I think is required now as part of the new 2004 Key building codes. His insurance rates 100' from the bay are lower than his former house 20 miles inland up in Fort Lauderdale, even though the insured value is quite a bit higher. I always hear about strengthening the levees and what not, but it seems like the 30 billion I hear batted around to upgrade the city would go a lot further in 300k increments to protect houses, and just excepting that flooding is going happen, rather than trying to flood proof the entire city and inviting catastrophic failures. I could almost see making the case that those people who are economically critical (port workers, etc) can get houses like this in a "company" neighborhood. If I had my way, the rest of the populace has the choice of either complying with code if they want to continue to enjoy the N.O. quality of life or to start looking for higher ground. Appreciate any insights, John O.
All new homes have to be a minimum of 3' above the street level AND above the 100 year flood plain (11' in some places).
The 3' "regardless" standard is unnecessary and prevents handicap accessible housing.
New building standards require (from memory) the ability to withstand Cat 4 winds. Usable shutters are better than "ballistic windows" and prettier too.
Traditionally, homes are elevated a couple of feet in New Orleans, slab build is *SO* Suburban ! But 3 feet is a bit awkward when not needed.
Alan
Interesting, thanks ABE. Course I guess one could always get the traditional apartment over a storefront. 12 ft up and a lot cheaper than stilts...
They move there because it allows them to collect federal handouts every time it rains. LOL.
But what happens when the feds can't afford it any more? Between the debt and peak oil, you can see that day coming.
What's going on in Florida is interesting. I love Florida, but man, is it ever doomed. People can't get their homes insured any more. So now the state is trying to do it. That's probably going to end up being a disaster.
Well, my position is not popular, but it is what it is.
No bail outs for anyone, whether NOLA, Fannie and Freddie, banks or shareholders.
There is much to be said for a quick collapse, it prevents further gaming of the system on the downside making it less expensive, and we can start rebuilding.
As long as people are bailed out and living in disaster prone areas remains repeatedly profitable, they will continue to do so and come up with excuses.
Let them assume the full risk personally if they like the place so much. Same with areas prone to fires or earthquakes.
The United States WAS a very rich country. It has squandered its resources and outsourced its expertise while impoverishing its people for the enrichment of a few with no loyalty to the country.
no amount of money can possibly save the jewel?
Simply redirect the silt deposited by the Mississippi River in the swamps around New Orleans. Two pilot projects (plus the 1930s Old River controlled diversion down the Atchafalaya). The first two are clear successes and too soon to tell for Barataria (early readings are good).
Rotterdam has 10,000 year flood protection and is up to 28' below sea level. New Orleans was promised 100 year flood protection in 1967/68, currently scheduled for 2011.
Hardly "no amount of money",
Alan
It's not "simply." That plan is actually better than Army Corps of Engineers' plan, and I'd be willing to sink some tax dollars into it.
But it also involves moving people away from the coast.
I think there's going to be an awful lot of that going on, and not just around New Orleans.
The State of Louisiana has pledged 100% of all new oil & gas offshore royalties to this plan (to rebuild the marshlands & barrier islands, primarily through diversion but also cypress tree planting and careful dumping of dredge spoils).
Alan
Does this 100 yr protection include sea level rise of between 1 and 5 meters? If not, it is short-sighted and a waste of resources.
Cheers
Actually, my view of the modern world is that there's not enough (honest) cost benefit analysis going on. Instead people tend to be very "creative" in their minimisation of costs and maximisation of benefits for the thing they want to do, and maximising costs and minimising benefits of what they don't like.
For instance, people always really like historic, period accommodation providing they aren't the ones who actually have to live in it. On the other hand, the house you live in have no historic value stopping you making whatever changes you want to it.
With all due respect, Alan, the culture in New Orleans was also what engendered the development of NO's slums, whose murder rates made them nothing short of charnel houses.
IF NO goes, not everything about it will be missed.
Yeah, that, too. Sorry, but I don't buy Alan's claims of community. New Orleans is famous for its crime and corruption. And it scores low for "social capital." Perhaps that's not a perfect measure...but what happened in the aftermath of Katrina didn't look like community to me.
One man's treasure is another man's junk. Alan's love for the Big Easy is inspiring-OTOH it obviously isn't for everybody. During Katrina, some Canadian tourists were staying at a high end downtown hotel. Management rented a bus to transport them out of harms way. The bus was stopped by police and they were forced off the bus at gunpoint by NO's finest. They spent the night huddled together on the streets-needless to say it wasn't the best ad for the place in the local media.
I would rank New Orleans as having extremely high social capital.
As one measure, how else can we pull off Mardi Gras (The Greatest Free Show on Earth)year after year ? No corporate sponsors, no pay, just voluntary organizations ?
We have over 200 festivals/year, people know each other and all levels of society TALK to each other !
Post-Katrina the level of civic involvement is sky high.
No other city I have ever lived in has half the social capital of New Orleans.
Alan
Many of the current residents of Louisiana are descended from French colonists deported by the British starting about 1755.
Cajun
The word "Cajun" is a deformation of the word "Acadian" (or "Acadien" in French). Many people in New Brunswick refer to themselves as Acadiens and they even have their own flag.
Several Lousiana performers come up to Quebec each year for the summer folk festivals and several Quebec artists perform regularly in Louisiana. Francophones are extremely sociable and they have the strongest community participation of any group that I know of.
I have never visited New Orleans, but it doesn't surprise me at all to hear that people love the place.
We have two local cuisines, Cajun and Creole. The Cajuns largely moved to the nearby countryside/swamps.
The French population in New Orleans came largely directly from France or from Haiti. The white French could go anywhere in the French Empire (many came to New Orleans) but the mixed blood (VERY unhealthy to stay in Haiti after the Revolution) could only come to New Orleans (more tolerant even then) as "Free People of Color".
The educated "black" Creole class expanded dramatically with the immigrants from Haiti (first book of poetry published in North America (including Mexico) was published by black Creoles in New Orleans). The Americans were *NOT* happy with this arrangement when they took over and this was part of the friction (two city governments for decades, one American, one Creole French).
We are a complex gumbo down here :-)
Best Hopes for Tolerance and Diversity,
Alan
Alan,
Thanks for the history lesson. I didn't realize that there were so many people from Haiti.
FWIW, the Canadian head of state (as opposed to head of government) is a Haitian-born black woman.
Michaëlle Jean
Governor General of Canada
calgarydude,
Speaking of our head-of-government, looks like Canadians will be heading to polls real soon:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/08/26/harper-election.html?
Wonder what's coming down the pike when the PM is murmuring about going to the people early even while the Minister of Health Tony Clement is under pressure after the listeriosis outbreak.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080825/national/maple_leaf_meat_recall_2
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2008/08/26/bc-listeria-c...
This election may interest our American friends since the current Conservative government receives a key measure of its (popular and financial) support from energy rich Alberta. No doubt, more postings will be coming this way.
Moving New Orleans will destroy the culture.
It didn't the last time.
Hey Alan, I wonder if anyone in New Orleans would be up to be relocated in the Eastern Coast of Canada? You know Arcadia?
A long round trip back home??
Just some humor...
Been to NO a few times, and I loved it and the people.
Peace
John
Arcadia is where spaced-out teeny-boppers with purple hair blast space aliens 24/7.
I think you meant Acadia
-- Peace
BTW, speaking as one who lives in the heartland of old Acadie we would welcome you Alan to eastern Canada.
A few choices to consider:
St. John's, Newfoundland, has to be one of the most unique, colourful (buildings & people), & charming cities of the New World.
http://www.stjohnskiosk.com/
The city has a welter of pubs. Water St. is well known for its drinking establishments. As a bonus, in survey after survey, Newfoundlanders rank as having the best sex lives of all Canadians. Might be something in the water or salty breeze. Then again, the winters tend to be brutally icy and snowy. For a person coming from NO, this could be too much of a climate shock. The Newfie version of the English language may take a stranger a while to master as well.
Moving on to my home province and the original home of Acadians, Nova Scotia, Halifax, the capital city, is a rustic seaport with a lingering old world navy and garrison town feel to it.
http://travel.aol.com/travel-guide/Halifax-Nova%20Scotia-Canada:148:Hali...
Added bonus: winters are more hospitable with climate similar to Boston.
For a real French flavour, may I suggest one of my favourite places in the whole wide world, Québec City:
http://www.quebecregion.com/e/
This year they have just finished celebrating four hundred years. The coffee shops are great. May be difficult to live there if your French is a bit rusty... but the people have that joie de vie that surprises me every time I visit.
Finally, for a combined English/français cosmopolitan charm, there is Montréal, Canada's chief city until Toronto stole its thunder in the 1970s:
http://ville.montreal.qc.ca/portal/page?_pageid=66,66713&_dad=portal&_sc...
Winters, however, are frigid but the people are warm. And the ladies sure know how to dress!! They are very stylish indeed.
Alan, you seem to have the spotlight of attention these days.
Trust me, Canadians have a goodly dose of idiosyncracies to be sure, but you may just find that we have a place in our hearts for a wandering Kansas boy with a fondness for the Big Easy.
Cheers!
Then pay for it out of your own pocket rather then picking the taxpayers pocket every couple of years.
Detroit and NO are failed cities.
Your definition of success is the % of white Republicans.
Alan
The ones that call themselves Republicans these days are almost as much of a joke as the democRats.
Here in Europe we have Venice.
I would like to think that Venice is worth saving and that Europeans of every stripe would dip into their collective pockets to save Venice.
As you should with New Orleans.
There are such things as cultural identity and heritage.
And they make us what we are.
Of course, in the long run NO and Venice are lost.
Not through global warming or sea level rise (neither will stretch the imaginations of humans), but ultimately geology. Deltas are depocenters of massive amounts of sediment. Crustal warping will create a localised marine transgressions and sea levels will 'rise'.
But some effort, money and planning will fight it for a few years yet.
Ask the Dutch.
If ever you have caught a connecting flight in Schiphol, remember this:
In the 17th Cent., the Brits fought the Dutch in a Naval battle above Schiphol runway.
Oddly, I've found the Dutch much less in denial than Americans. IME, most of them readily admit that if Al Gore is right (or worse, proves optimistic), their country will be no more.
They seem to expect to move to neighboring countries if necessary.
They will have to become Germans...
And they hate the idea.
'Can I have my bike back?' will take on a new meaning.
Also, they will have to get used to splitting restaurant bills down to the exact penny.
tot morgen!
There are such things as cultural identity and heritage.
And they make us what we are.
Unfortunately not to too many Americans. All that matters to them is money and the things money can buy, or they think it can buy.
Alan
I'm as bleeding heart liberal as it gets. I don't know anyone more "left" than I. Literally. But this crap about culture really is too much. Like language, it changes. virtually nowhere in the semi-/developed world is any culture now extant that was extant even 100 years ago. Period. No language is now what it was then. Period. Even people are different: we are, by and large, taller, bigger, etc.
Change happens. For the cultural elitist this = $%$% happens. But that is an untenable position. What NOLA was 100 or 150 years ago is NOT what it is now. Period. Dollars to doughnuts you all shop at 7/11, supermarkets, homeplus... etc. You eat at McDonalds, KFC, TGIF... Yes, you;ve got some cultural history and influences that are unique to the US, even the world. But, that passing is as natural as any human passing. Change happens. Culture changes.
And the lifestyle described by you, Alan, is it shared by all? Can all engage in the upscale dining and dignified dinners you describe? No? Then what are they worth in the end?
Bah... I live in a culture that purports to be ancient, unique. I have heard, ad nauseum, that the culture must be maintained, so let's keep out/kick out them evil foreigners! I've heard when in Rome as a justification for immoral, unethical behavior. Yet, these same people... eat at McDonalds, KFC, TGIF... they shop at COSTCO... ...they watch TV and go to the malls to shop...
And this grand party, Alan, I'm sure is a blast. It is something I have always wanted to experience. To spend time in the bars, to hear the live jazz... you betcha... but the city coming together for a party? Nothing, in the end, but a party? Where is that great social capital to clean up the corruption, the killing? If you told me the social capital extended beyond the party, then you might get more empathy, or at least sympathy. but all you can show us is that you have wonderful dining, a great party every year, perhaps a bit more diversity and a bit more tolerance (though this is doubtful given the crime rate).
And what of demographics? The vast majority of those cast out by Katrina were the poor... and dark-skinned, no? What are the demographics now? Is this wonderful city still what it was, or is it a less-diverse place than before?
As stated elsewhere, if you wall off the city, which you MUST eventually do, is it really still NOLA? Without the bayous, the fishermen... etc.... is it really still NOLA, or is it just one big place waiting for the tourists to return each year?
In an ideal world, Alan, what useful uniqueness still survives in NOLA would be preserved. But in a world of sea level rise, minimum 2 degrees of warming, energy descent/transition... can we afford the indulgence? The automatic, knee-jerk response that we MUST save NOLA is short-sighted outside of a national and/or at least regional plan to save what is **needed** for future survival. I've no objection to saving NOLA within a greater context that makes sense, but without that? No.
Reconstituting the bayous and delta will only prolong the death/wall building.
Cheers
When I read your piece, ccpo, it just dawned on me: the USA really is peopled by individualists whose minds don’t span to embrace the common good or commonwealth.
This is not meant as an insult; more akin to an epiphany.
A light has just gone on. Gated communities are not an anomaly, are they? Enron isn’t an aberration, is it?
For those of us who live outside the United States, an America without a New Orleans would be a seriously diminished place. We can no more envision that than a Europe without an Amsterdam or Venice, a Canada without a Vancouver or Charlottetown, an Australia without a Melbourne or Perth, a Japan without a Sopporo or Osaka. (incidentally, all coastal cities)
For Americans, it really is every man for himself, along with every city, every state, and every corporation. Sharing the load does not translate or compute the same way.
Many of you don’t -- and perhaps cannot -- see how peculiar, how very strangely peculiar, this is.
No wonder Katrina generated the internal visceral response that it did back in 2005.
Such fierce determination and self-reliance likely helped to make the US the swaggering giant on the world stage that it is.
But like with human beings, countries can have strengths that can mirror back as weaknesses.
Perchance ... yes, perchance... individualism is the US’s Achilles heal as well.
Please tell me I'm wrong.
It depends. As I generalized about NO because I was talking about a city, not Alan, perhaps you are generalizing about me? If my post gave you the impression I was talking about individualism, it must have been poorly written, indeed. I was speaking of the greater good as opposed to the good of only individuals, or even one city above all others.
As for Americans, yes, as a generalization, it is true.
The memory or at least knowledge of pulling together in WWII is a bit of an assumed model of what Americans will always do. We have, like any people, pulled together when needed, but I think it a dangerous game to play to think we always will or that that alone can fix every problem. It makes us a bit lazy, I think, or at least inattentive.
So, yes, perhaps.
Cheers
It is a very strong thread in the USA, but we are not completely uniform.
We did not note that EU & Japan seemed to value New Orleans more than Americans, Paris certainly helped more than DC.
Consumerism, more than individualism, is the core driver for many Americans. Individualism means self discipline and taking care of self, but also lending a helping hand to neighbors. Consumerism attacks anything that slows the accumulation of personal stuff.
Alan
You may be wrong, or you may not, but IMO you are making a big mistake conflating the opinions expressed here with those of Americans in general. (And I think ccpo said he was in Korea, anyway.)
What we have here are the politics of scarcity. For the first time since the New World was discovered, we're facing a zero-sum game. No one can gain unless someone else loses. At least, that is how many here at TOD see it. (This is most definitely not the case elsewhere, where the dream of constant growth and a rising tide lifting all boats continues.)
It's one thing to want to bring your antique piano and your grandmother's china on an ocean liner. But if the ship is sinking and everyone's piling into the lifeboats...it's not selfish or unreasonable to leave the piano behind. In fact, I'd say it's the opposite: it's selfish to try to save it.
No one can gain unless someone else loses.
Ah yes, consumerism.
Other social & economic choices have different results.
Alan
Yes, "consumerism," if consumerism means feeding people who are hungry, or providing medical care to sick children.
If we wanted to, the USA could cover those still not covered with 1% of so of the GDP.
That is a strawman today and for many years to come.
The resistance to greater social spending on infrastructure and other basic needs is because it would deprive people of consumer goods & services.
Alan
Disagree. We as a nation are up to our ears in debt, and it's only going to get worse. Perhaps in a sudden and catastrophic way, though I hope not.
I'm all for spending on infrastructure. But it can't be built as if it is disposable, and as if there will always be money to repair/replace it in the future.
Peak oil means we are going to have to bow to the forces of climate change and rising sea levels, rather than trying to impose our will over the environment, as we have done traditionally. That means a retreat from the coast.
Light rail in Cincinnati? I'm all for it. In New Orleans? No.
What does it matter where I live?
Cheers
Well, he said, "For those of us who live outside the United States, an America without a New Orleans would be a seriously diminished place."
I really think he's barking up the wrong tree, thinking it's where someone lives that determines their POV.
The difference is whether or not you think New Orleans is salvageable. Many do not, so it doesn't matter how much it costs or how valuable or unique it is.
As an example, the BBC did a program called The Lost City of New Orleans. It quotes scientists saying things like:
and
I've seen many other foreign articles basically saying that New Orleans is doomed, and Americans are idiots for building it there.
Thanks for the note. I probably could have figured that out myself except that he was, I'm fairly sure, not talking about expat Americans, but non-Americans. At least, that's how I took it.
Yup. And he's worried about only 1 meter. I'd say 1 meter this century would be darned flippin' lucky. Hopefully Alan will start factoring these things in.
I'm telling you, an island.
I need to get my brother to buy a bit of land in/near Baton Rouge for me. Beachfront by 2100. The New New Orleans. Hell, if they had any brains at all they would literally move NO up to East of Red Stick and be done with all the drama. They could move whatever historical buildings they considered vital to history and reconstruct everything else in the image of what is there now. Add in zoning laws to only allow new buildings that matched the old inside and out, and - viola!
How long did it take to build Brazilia?
Then again, I did mention regional action:
THAT makes some sense. NOLA only? A waste of time. Imagine, though, a wall hundreds of miles long and at least 35 ft above sea level at the top. 15 for sea level rise (minimum) and 20 for storm surge. When you consider what the depth below the land/sea level would have to be... That's a see-it-from-space structure...
But what are these places without their ocean fronts? Don't they become just another city? If so, then why bother? Just let people move out as they see fit.
How much CO2 would be created in the building of it? I'm not sure we can have our cake and eat it, too.
Cheers
Yep, ccpo you did figure it out correctly. Specifically, I was referring to people who did not grow up red, white, and blue and pledging allegiance to the flag and all that jazz.
No offense intended for expats. Or for the fully stationary pats either! Just a few late night observations.
I'm on lunch break and doing a very quick check-in.
Also, my wife is arriving home from vacation and so my spare time at the keyboard may be more limited now that I'm no longer a bachelor.
Think you nailed it on the head earlier ccpo when you said this will be an ongoing discussion as more and more people face choices about where they are living.
I think, too, that it is helpful/insightful to have this discussion. Perhaps occurring around water coolers and coffee shops, but not likely to see this too many other places or in too many other medias.
One of the things I love about this site... and I have to admit I'm an addict... is that I learn something new every day on TOD. Top quality stuff folks.
My thanks to you all. You continue to wet my appetite. Cheers!
Dollars to doughnuts you all shop at 7/11, supermarkets, homeplus... etc. You eat at McDonalds, KFC, TGIF..
I will take my dollar.
No, we do not eat at KFC, McDonalds, TGIF (6 McDs, 2 KFCs and zero TGIFs in New Orleans AFAIK, tourists seek them out, frightened by the strange food we eat) New Orleans is almost unique in the USA for being a non-chain food city. If we want fast food, we buy a po-boy or muffulata at a corner grocery store.
No 7/11s and VERY few corner gas station/convenience stores (one local chain sells boudin, po-boys, etc, but 90+% of their stores are in the suburbs).
I make most of my groceries at Zara's, 2.5 blocks away. 2nd generation with 3rd working there. 5 places to buy food within 7 blocks (one is a WalMart). I do buy office supplies from an Office Deport 7 blocks away
Even the few chains here are required to build more architecturally compatible buildings.
Where is that great social capital to clean up the corruption, the killing?
We has a march against crime in January 2007, 1.4 years after Karina. 6,000 people (out of 200,000 or so then) walked on a Thursday noon for several miles from all parts of the city, demanding change. And some change did result and more is coming.
My ophthalmologist is mid-50s, head of a successful group practice, loves his work. Never thought about politics till Katrina. Ran, and won, for state Senate on a slogan of "People are dying and no one is talking about it".
The City has created and funded an Inspector General (tough guy, I think from New Jersey). Next election we get to vote a permanent 0.75% of the city budget to the Inspector General. This will make him immune to budgetary pressures.
http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/06/inspector_general_budget_vote...
One of the City Council members could be making $1.5 million/yr in Seattle or Miami, but chose to stay in New Orleans after Katrina for $40,000/yr (He was a very successful GM for the New Orleans Saints, he got fired for trying to keep the Saints in New Orleans).
What are the demographics now? Pre-K, 68% African-American, 2% Hispanic. Latest 62% African_American, 7% Hispanic. Asian steady at 2%-3%. But down 100,000 people.
New Orleans was tied with New York City before Katrina for fewest miles driven by residents. VERY different solutions but equivalent results. We are a living template for a post-Peak Oil USA.
New Orleans is the low energy transfer point for North America (detailed elsewhere).
More later.
Alan
Sorry, you don't get your dollar. The best you can say is you (NOLA) don't do the things I said as much as other cities, or just do them in different ways.
My point stands. Picking out small details to try to undermine the basic point wins you no points. NO is not what it was. The future will make certain that only becomes more true.
Demonstrate why the cost of saving NOLA is justified against the cost of saving other places, which may well save more places and more people as they may not need as intensive an effort as NOLA, given NOLA will literally need dikes some 10 to 15 higher than those already in place all the way around, becoming an island in the middle of the ocean.
I've no argument with an island city. I question whether the cost of saving NOLA can be balanced against the costs of saving other places.
NOTE: I don't think this is a question with an answer till there is a comprehensive study of the country's response to AGW.
More importantly, why is the supposed culture, which is itself a mirage, being changeable, so valuable? Where is the sustainable housing? The sustainable agriculture? The true communities of people who actually share their day-to-day lives, not just in passing at the local store or restaurant? I have a suspicion that the life lived by many in NO might eventually be seen as profligate and selfish. And this is in no way a support of current societies/cultures in the US. I see a very changed world in the future. It may well need to go well beyond even the community and social capital currently experienced by you there in NOLA.
That is, nothing is sacred when the world is burning, friend. The Rome of 2,000 years ago is gone. The England of Shakespeare. The pirates that helped build the mystique that NOLA still holds today... all gone. This is the way of things.
Cheers
You move the goalposts and change conditions till you get your desired result.
I could try to meet your new conditions, but why try ?
Yes, all places change. But the historic continuity of New Orleans is dramatically higher than the rest of the USA. It has been said that we live our history. And there is an almost fanatical determination to preserve our culture post-K.
We also have the most established families (3+ generations) of any US city. Boston close. And the personal relationships are deeper than just meeting on the street, stores, etc. I think that there is value in strangers and acquaintances talking, but you have your pre-conceived assumptions and any explanation will not be accepted.
As for food, we have the best food in the world (Paris #2) and one of the strengths is the common food. And $20 lunches and $30 dinner specials are at many major restaurants during the summer. Not for everyone, but most can, and do, afford an occasional night out.
But you are determined not to be convinced, so why waste my time ?
Alan
Please. Alan, you have yet to even attempt to answer my query: why should it be saved at the expense of others? And, this is a condition for you prior to any attempt to analyze the way forward for the US, as opposed to just NOLA. NOLA must be saved. There is no question for you.
All you have done thus far, is tell us what NOLA has. You have yet to quantify why it is more valuable to a future world than other places. When the land between NOLA and Baton Rouge is underwater, why would we be preserving NOLA? Even if that is a hundred years hence, or more, given the time needed to relocate whole cities, should we be wasting time on a city that cannot exist as it is now?
You say culture; I say that always changes. Not good enough. Be more specific. Give a value. Give a value with respect to opportunity costs. Give a value with respect to others having to bail you out when the next storm hits. Give a value with respect to the long term problem of sea level rise.
Great! You ahve three generations! Beautiful. I support such a demographic. Pray tell, what are the percentages? Without percentages your point has no real meaning. But you know this. Even if it is large, why is it worth billions to preserve?
So, Alan, stop listing, start quantifying. You are acting as if you have answered me. You have not.
BS. This is your sentimentality talking. I stated clearly I would have no problem with NOLA being kept going if it were within the context of a wider plan and made sense. (I.e., wasn't a massive pork barrel.) Do you have a plan?
What drives my question is the future: sea levels, less a sudden flip to a mini-Ice Age or Younger Dryas-type event, are going higher. NOLA **will** be an island. You argue culture. I have asked already, what is that culture when NOLA is a walled-in island?
You have addressed exactly zero of my questions.
What interests me about this conversation is that it is likely a perfect model for the types of questions we face in the future, and your response is a perfect example of how residents of any particular locale are going to react when someone suggests their particular back yard can't be saved.
I understand your anger and defensiveness. I expect it. Now, can you get past it? If you can't, educated and informed as you are, then what hope for others to do so? How does this bode for the US?
Cheers
Yes, I agree. This is very much on-topic.
I answered your specific questions about fighting corruption#, fighting crime and food in detail, among others. Which you ignored.
> Pray tell, what are the percentages?
Per planning sessions I attended post-K, slightly over 60% of the population had at least one grand-parent from New Orleans, over half with 4 grand-parents from New Orleans.
If I have time, I will address other questions tomorrow or later, but it is clear that you have never ending layers of negative questions.
And you have forgotten the points I made earlier, that New Orleans is the low energy transfer point for North America and we provide a template for human scale low energy use for the USA. Among others.
Your island analysis is spurious. Not supported by even a 3 m sea level rise if silt is used to build up surrounding areas.
I do know that, since you have ignored all the points I made before, you will continue to do so.
Alan
# According to local reports, no other US city has a legal requirement for a fixed budget for an Inspector General. In New Orleans it will be 0.75% of the general city budget. What more can reasonably be done ?
PS: My specific plan for the next 30 years for the USA has been submitted to a division of the Nat'l Academy of Engineering. fro peer review Co-authors Hans Herren, Ed Tennyson and Andrea Bassi. Plenty of #s, but I cannot disclose or discuss the paper before publication.
Let me state clearly I love your work here and am not in any way intending to pick a fight, but you are reacting as if I am. At least, it seems that way. Let me address a concern or two you raised:
I didn't ignore them, I found them insignificant. Also, they have not been quantified relative to the value of NOLA over other places that would not be saved were NOLA saved.
OK. Meaningless less comparisons with other cities of the US. I'm willing to note they may be significantly higher than most places (but I'd still like to see it demonstrated). Given that NOLA is generally considered a place to move from
and not to, is this not at least partly an artifact of that? And what is the inherent value of these stats? Does it make a city safer (high crime rate)? More friendly (your anecdotal evidence would support this)? How does it break down demographically? (All the above is largely a quibble, but worth trying to quantify.)
No, they were not significant. NOLA provides a template for low energy use? Perhaps we are using different scales. Unless NOLA's carbon footprint is negative, as required to reach 350 ppm of CO2, then it's just a slower road to annihilation. And not much slower at that, I'd wager. (And do be fair in answering by using pre-Katrina numbers. Any post-Katrina drop wasn't an intentional change.)
Frankly, I don't know what "low energy transfer point" means.
Now you're starting to irritate. Spurious, my arse. You think 3m is the limit? I've got news for you. There are people who currently expect as much as 5 meters within this century. Let us hope they are full of CO2, but I'm leaning their way. Look at the Arctic. Last year was a fluke? Guess again. I stated pretty clearly on these forums what was likely to happen when you figured in the unexpected and decades-earlier-than-expected methane release in the Arctic. Do you not pay attention to the links posted here? I am already correct, and that was just a couple months ago.
The current sea ice is set to get very, very close to - or even meet or beat - last year within a few days or weeks. You must be aware the permafrost is melting up to 900 kilometers away because of the ice melting. I know you understand the feedback loop. I know you understand rapid climate change. Why, then, would you make such a boneheaded claim that what I said is spurious?
And your "if"... Alan, you don't let others get away with that. I'm not letting you. You got enough silt to fill in all the way from NOLA to Baton Rouge? Alan, the entire delta isn't that big.
You are not willing to entertain reality with regard to NOLA, Alan.
OK. What does that mean?
Glad you asked: 1. Get your carbon footprint into negative territory (the city). 2. Quantify why NOLA is worth saving at the expense of other places, again keeping in mind saving NOLA is almost certainly going to be more expensive and more difficult than saving some other places. 3. Address #2 in terms of climate change and energy descent.
How convenient for you! (I kid.) Seriously, that is unfortunate as this conversation has zero practical use without that. It doesn't diminish its usefulness as a mental exercise, however.
I thank you for the conversation thus far, Alan, for the reasons stated in an earlier post. I think this dialogue is necessary. Emphatically so. I hope it serves as a tool to focus our thinking on the issues and difficulties of telling people their lives in the places they love are now and forever over, and even more so on the difficulties of actually deciding who (not literally... I think...) gets tossed out of the lifeboat.
Cheers
One quick note. New Orleans is likely to be cheaper than most coastal cities to save.
Why ?
River silt is quite cheap to redirect into swamps. A few billion, less if fewer studies are made.
Tomorrow or later (depedning upon Gustav).
Alan
This has been an interesting debate. I agree with Leanan that it brings up a great many topical points that will impact all of us in the future. For that reason these issues may be a good subject for a future keypost.
One quibble.
One key aspect of the debate is this question:
"Should the pockets of one group of Americans be used to maintain the lifestyle of another group of Americans?"
I think the question that Americans truly need to consider is this: "Will BRIC and the Gulf States be willing to invest their cash in future American infrastructure? Or will they find a set of alternate investments offering higher returns closer to home?"
To be frank, I am so far past seeing the current paradigm as tenable that the point you raise is a non-issue for me. Even if it were technically tenable, it is in no way desirable. It is, however, worth considering for the short- and mid-term aspects of its influence on the financial sector of The Perfect Storm.
Cheers
I look forward to a comprehensive response, which needs must be fairly long at this point. Your comment above illustrates this as it indicates you've not read thoroughly my responses and comments so far. If you had, you wouldn't bother mentioning the silt except as a short-term solution designed to do not much more than give people time to relocate.
Read all my responses, please, or we'll end up going in circles.
I understand fully about Gustave. Got a brother down there.
Not to mention my own little 8 mo. old hurricane. He's close to walking.... God help us...
;)
Cheers
I'd like to see more imaginative solutions - this is particularly neat:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2004/may/24/architecture
Note not only that is floats, but the small size relative to typical American homes.
The real problem about the re-build in NO is surely that you may loose what you have re-built.
In an energy and finance constrained world, we should be a lot more imaginative.
A trade-off of house size for the cost of being resistant to flooding is surely the way to go.
Here in the UK it is mainly modern housing which is built to standard designs, regardless of location.
Houses a couple of hundred years old which are built on river banks etc are usually well-adapted, with stone floors so that when a flood looks likely you shift the furniture upstairs - the ones which flood regularly tend to keep less furniture downstairs - and when the flood subsides you just swill off the floor. Probably originally they did not bother with plaster on the walls.
It is modern flood insurance which has made people more cavalier about where and how they build.
Hi Gail the Actuary,
I went in and looked at the financials and other operational presentations prepared by the 10 largest domestic natural gas producers. Here's what I come up with:
So in the same spirit of my comment a couple of days ago, I'll give two imaginary interpretations that explain what is going on in the world of natural gas, and you choose which one you think comes closer to reality:
or
Natural gas prices are up about 10% in the last two days. That's a pretty big jump for a commodity that's having a glut. Is there some specific reason for the rise?
Not sure....gregor had a post a few days ago about the extreme short speculative interest in NG. It looks like short covering since today is the last trade for the contract and there isn't any specific news that I can see. Should have happened last week, but I think that's the cause.
I assume that you guys are joking.
They forgot about the big round swirly thing :-)
:-) Not trying to say there isn't likely to be an imminent shortage, just trying to examine trade mechanics and short-term market movements. I think Shargash was referring to the price spike compared to CL...which is also up thanks to the "giant swirly thing", but not nearly as much.
Not exactly. Oil is up about 3%. I figured the effect on natural gas would be somewhat less than oil, not 3x the size.
To quote my natural gas guy again, the difference between a glut and a shortage in natural gas markets is about 2%. It's just a heck of a lot easier to move crude oil around the world than it is to move natural gas, especially considering the low price of natural gas in the US, relative to the world spot price for LNG cargoes.
This is the chart from gregor's post a coupla days ago...Net COT positions:
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/NG.png
Probably the biggest reason why natural gas prices responded more than the oil price is that the price of oil is a world market, while the US price of natural gas is the North American price, so a similar sized disruption on a smaller market will have a larger impact on price.
Fantastic work!
How was Q1-2007 derived versus 2007? I ask because Conoco has a larger Q1 value than 2007 value. Is that the estimate the company has for what yearly production will be? So in Q1 2007 they estimated they would produce 16.85 and ended up producing 17.02?
The figures I used are actual production, straight from annual reports for FY2006 and FY2007 and quarterly reports for Q1-2007 and Q2-2008. Whatever figures they reported were the figures I used.
JonFreise,
Williams Companies had some really great research in a slide show that was part of the press conference accompanying the release of its Q1-2008 financials...
http://www.williams.com/investors/docs/1Q08_slides.pdf
It not only has production and reserve comparisons for the top 20 domestic natural gas producers, but also some information on how the top 20 top producers' Production Cost and Finding and Developing Costs compare.
I know that you and I would prefer to see how the aforementioned have changed over time rather than the snapshot that Williams gives, but it nevertheless shows the kind of data contained in these companies' financial statements if someone has the time to grind the numbers.
Thanks for the link.
I notice in the footnotes to the report, it says it gets its data from "EvaluateEnergy.com". I notice in looking at the website that EvaluateEnergy.com has quite a few 2nd quarter 2008 statements up.
Thanks, that is a really great link. Here is one interesting fact:
Average Operating cost $1.59 per Mcf.
Average Find and Develop $2.89 per Mcf.
Total $4.48
That puts the cost per Mcf at almost exactly where the Canadian NG Industry was in 2004-2005 ($3.74-$5.01). That solidifies my view that the US is falling very fast in EROEI but is just behind Canada. Which is why production is falling there but not yet here. So right around 10-12 to 1 EROEI.
Yes, I need to dig into those quarterly statements.
DownSouth and Gail,
Please keep posting the numbers and debate. I read the numbers posted every day even if I am not commenting.
Thanks for all the hard work.
Thanks for all the hard work.
Ditto. This ongoing exchange has been a very informative.
Thanks for all your posts on NG. You should know that the multi-year poster on the CWEI Board, Robry, has also been struggling this year with EIA methadology changes for NG.
http://www.investorvillage.com/recentposts.asp?mid=6648
You may also be aware that among the three NG CEO Gurus, Mark Papa of EOG, Bob Simpson of XTO, And Aubrey McClendon of CHK, there is a robust disagreement about both the size the of resource base in the various Shale plays, and, the time and costs to extract it. McClendon is on the cornucopian side of the argument, with Simpson and Papa very dubious. (Simpson thinks McClendon has been irresponsible in his public remarks, and has started referring to him as a "hype artist." Papa has not resorted to invective, but has said that the Barnett will peak much sooner than expected). In short, there is a huge amount of disagreement in the entire NG community right now, from the CEOs to the research houses, and all the private investors in between (like myself). FWIW: I am lightly invested with CHK, and heavily invested with XTO.
The area that interests me right now are pipeline imports and exports of NG between the US, and Mexico and Canada. Here is a post from earlier this week on this subject.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24871370
G
Thanks for the links. As I understand it, Robry is concerned about the weekly NG storage estimates, because of a change in methodology. It seems like monthly numbers would not be affected, since they come directly from the various, and are fairly complete. Is this correct?
Hi. I don't understand completely what Robry's issues are, with new EIA sampling. I do know that he has been followed for years for his ability to gauge the NG build each week, and that this year he has been struggling a bit more. I'm not aware that he has voiced any revision of the monthly numbers. I do know there is widespread confusion among NG investors however on various investment boards about the supply-demand data this year, that many feel is not explained merely by the drop in LNG, issues with REX, and variability of the Independence pipeline. I have no strong views either way. I simply note the increased amount of uncertainty among those who are usually more certain.
Robry writes:
*** EIA METHODOLOGY CHANGES: Continuing to have difficulty with the EIA's methodology changes as the latest EIA report went back to the 2003/2005 type numbers, backing off of the newly-generated 2008 model (which outperformed the 2005 model the previous two weeks). The 2008 model was necessitated by the EIA's "Quiet" (They really snuck it in) change in methodology whereby the EIA increased their sampling (from 63 to 70 operators) and (if the 2008 model is correct) severely de-weighted salt-dome operators.
There is a great deal of uncertainty in my mind whether the old, new, or both EIA methadologies are in error, as there is a very stark difference between the two data sets that my own 2005 and 2008 models have chosen for themselves. Because of all this uncertainty, and the newness of the 2008 model, a much higher margin of error should be assumed on the storage, baseline, and evaluation models.
(I would still strongly urge everybody to email the EIA to respectfully ask that the details of this revision (along with its parrallel data set) be made public.)
Thanks for the information! I wound be interested in seeing second quarter 2008 information also, since that seems to be available as well (at least for some companies).
When I visited BP's Wamsutter operation, they talked about their level-load philosophy. In it, they contract for the number and type of rigs they want. They hire staff and contractors to go with the fixed number of rigs. Production only goes up if productivity of the rigs goes up. Long term, they may add rigs, but the idea is that it is hard to go up and down in staff and rigs. If you lay off engineers, they are likely to leave the industry for something more stable. If you want state of the art drilling rigs, you often need rigs specially built for your purpose. This requires a long-term lease, which locks the company into production capacity.
There are several natural gas only "growth" companies out there, that depend heavily on debt for financing. This debt is drying up, and the companies will have to use cash flow to finance their operations. Growth will necessarily need to be scaled back (as well as stock buy-backs, dividend increases, and other things investors like). I think the question is how soon this scale back in growth starts--has it started already, or as the EIA data suggests, not quite yet.
If you do a second iteration of this, could you subtotal the big oil companies separately from the primarily NG companies? Thanks!
I believe that a well organized shipping structure would be more beneficial than trips to the mall or any big box store for non-perishable goods. Unless I need something today, I order all of my non-perishable goods online and have them shipped to me. The $6 to $9 shipping is well worth it to me, as I save a combined 30 minutes to an hour of driving, which saves me time, but it also saves me $4 or $5 in gasoline, not to mention wear/tear on my vehicle and increased chance of being involved in a traffic collision. I don't get stressed out by the drive, the people on the roads, the fellow shoppers in the stores, nor the flunkies that check me out, or the Loss Prevention guys having their eyes locked on me because I'm wearing a big coat or a backpack.
In fact, I order so much online, I often forget what I've ordered, and by the time the package arrives, it's like a mini-Christmas. Ooh! What did I get this time? Oh! I forgot I ordered that because it was on backorder! (etc.)
If large quantities of people ordered online, I can imagine an organized distribution system being much more efficient than armies of people driving in a million different directions to get things from different stores.
In regards to the article stating that the way that certain drivers' actions affect the traffic conditions of the whole in a largely negative way, many studies have shown this to be a fact. A ripple of slowdown flows backward through the traffic. Self-serving behavior that is detrimental to those around them is pretty systemic of human behavior, and I don't see it changing any time soon unless we all have cars that drive themselves.
Here's video in which they recreate a traffic jam
http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/43867/e1e46c27/hoe_maak_je_een_file_.html
Shopping is not about more efficient shipping structures; it is about going to the mall and wandering around until you see something you must have and buying it on the spot. Instant gratification is not available on the internet or through UPS. Shopping, as generally practiced in America, is an addiction; the temporary fix is only provided on site -- at the mall.
Having said that, I never go to the mall and combine any purchases I make in order to minimize travel miles and make judicious use of internet shopping.
The growth paradigm requires unlimited needs "satisfied" by continuous consumption and shopping, whether it be on site or through the internet. Unless we can construct an economic system that provides for basic needs without destroying the planet, we are doomed. But then species disappear every day.
I buy a lot of stuff on the net, too, and IME, it's even more of a trap than the mall. There's only so much stuff they can put in the mall. On the net, you see things you never knew existed. The increased temptation more than makes up for the slightly delayed gratification.
And it's only slightly delayed, what with many places offering next day delivery.
I agree with Leanan...the internet is way more dangerous that the mall. Kevin Kelly's Cool Tools is the devil.
Later computers come with a spray bottle and every time you purchase something on the internet, you get a small spray of Spice. Your eyes turn blue and you cannot see clearly more than three or four feet, i.e. the distance to your computer screen. It is a Bush thing.
Seems a silly argument to me. The ripple effect only happens in the presence of congestion. Similar to the difficulties one encounters making left hand turn or entering road. Or putting more cars on the road in total. Traffic engineers usually fix such problems by adding more lights, lanes and bypasses. It's not how we drive; it's that we drive too much. Or that we drive at all.
Note as well how author frames that arguement as "personal responsibility" vs a "social responsibility". Another fruit from the tree of bad apples. It's time to realized the tree is sick.
cfm in Gray, ME
I don't believe the $6-$9 online shipping rate will persist much longer.
Diesel fuel costs have UPS and FedEx between a rock (revenue growth) and a hard place (profit), jeopardizing their incentives to the Amazons and other online giants of this sphere. That being said, Obama proposing the electrification/hybrid fueling of the USPS would go a long way to socializing delivery!
Nevertheless, what do you do with all those "green" packing peanuts, paper and bubble wrap?
Well, I'm not sure what everyone ELSE does with the packing peanuts, paper, and bubble-wrap, but I personally re-use it by removing the shipping labels from the boxes, and using them for when I ship out things. (I sell merchandise online.) For the average person, the cardboard can be recycled (downcycled?), the packing peanuts can be dissolved if they're those new corn starch based ones, and likely the bubble wrap needs to be replaced with an alternative, such as shredded kraft paper or the like.
No, it's not perfect, but if you must know, these cardboard boxes also exist when the retail store opens and unpacks the products they place on display. If you've ever unloaded a 40 ft trailer of product at a big box store, you'll know what I mean. :)
I've had two orders lately that were shipped across the US and back (CA>KY>CA)!
UPS is going to have to charge more, get new shipping software or go broke.
Durandal
I hope that everyone realizes that there are more vehicles on the road during rush hour [if someone is trying to say otherwise, that is ridiculous by observation]. On Saturday more PEOPLE. Going to work for most is a one per car. The mall shopping on Saturday is mom, dad, and kids.
My wife does the grocery shopping and saves the receipts which I total for the month. Sometimes I've counted as many as 22 receipts, each one representing a trip to the store. Our nearest store is only a 4 mile trip but still it's hard to justify more than 4 trips a month. Fortunately, she now has an electric car, a GEM.
I go about every day, sometimes twice. A 2.5 block walk. No big deal :-)
Alan
Pressure and rhetoric still increasing on the Russia-Georgia conflict...
Russia-Georgia conflict raises Black Sea tensions
Appearantly double standards apply when it comes to Kosovo vs. Ossetia/Abkazia.
"Why I had to recognise Georgia’s breakaway regions
By Dmitry Medvedev "
snip
"Meanwhile, ignoring Russia’s warnings, western countries rushed to recognise Kosovo’s illegal declaration of independence from Serbia. We argued consistently that it would be impossible, after that, to tell the Abkhazians and Ossetians (and dozens of other groups around the world) that what was good for the Kosovo Albanians was not good for them"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9c7ad792-7395-11dd-8a66-0000779fd18c.html
As I said before, this is far from over.
BTW, Russian aggression? Now who started this mess in the first place?
Oh ya...I think the comments in the Western MSM are definitely trying to shape this as "We need to contain Russian aggression or they will take over the world".
This is escalating beyond the little skirmish in Georgia.
I find it hard to believe Mr. Saaskashvili invaded S-Ossetia without Western approval or backing. He was certainly aware of Russia's reaction.
So I can only see it as an opening play of the Great Game. It has now started and will only get worse. With all the sabre rattling over Iran I overlooked the potential of conflict in the Caucasus. The potential being that this could lead to WWIII. Who needs Iran to unleash the nukes if you can have some puppet provoke the Great Bear? Strategically a very good opening as oil shipments from the Gulf can continue.
"Great Game"? More likely the November US presidential election. McCain got a good boost.
The Pentagon recognizes the need to shape the "information space" that contains the battlefield.
With both Gulf War I and II there were reliable reports of Defense Dept contractors issuing information that supported US aims. The media utilized this information as it was "free" and running a newsroom is an expensive undertaking.
The US has a socialized banking system, socialized housing for the wealthy (see Leanan's comment on Outer Banks estates), and soon a socialized auto industry. Socialized news is just the next step.
How do you figure "next" step? It's been in place at LEAST since the advent of R. Murdoch. BTW, how is it everyone has forgotten so quickly that fast series of 8 major interruptions in two weeks to communication cables running through the Mediteranean? Also, bets that the pentagon planners have plans in place to isolate N American communications from the rest of the world in event serious "requirement"? (eg. start of serious new difficulties successfully provoked with Russia).
Interesting that WWII also started with a pair of conferences in Moscow (1 was France and Britain, 2 was Germany). Actulally continued right up to the day of invasion of Poland by Germany.
Hello TODers,
In the hope of averting the full-on ICBM Nuclear/Bioweapon Gift Exchange:
My thxs to AlanFBE, CCPO, and other responders to my offshore nuclear bomb question in yesterday's DB. IMO-->Impossible problem to retroactively armchair quarterback WWII.
But, is this applicable to the Baltic, or Black Sea, or the Hormuz Strait [the modern geo-political hotspots]? Consider:
Russia could show it seriousness to protect its sphere of influence by detonating a small tactical nuke in its offshore waters as a 'message to the West'. IMO, this is much better than nuking the Ukraine or Poland.
Same for Israel or the US exploding a nuke offshore of Iran to show how serious things are getting; the need for all parties to use diplomacy vs wholesale military action on land.
In the Grand Chessboard Game: a nuke detonation on land, by any party, is tantamount to moving the Queen across the squares to a high power position against an opposing King. Could a small, offshore, 'relatively harmless' nuke explosion be equivalent to a pawn or knight move to prod serious discussion of a peaceful solution? Or is this a breech of both diplomatic and military strategy; a bridge too far...
Could be a fascinating topic; turning a deadly 'bite' into a real serious 'bark'. Thxs for any replies.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Detonating any nuclear device would be a seriuos violation of International Law and several treaties. Any such move would be seen as Nuclear Terrorism par exelance. The Russians have simply paid NATO back for its actions in Kosovo, which Russia did say it would do at some future time. That time has now arrived. There's currently a previously scheduled meeting of the SCO now occuring in Dushanbe. I'm certain some sort of joint statement will be made from there shortly that addresses the issue.
Such a detonation carries the risk of an accompanying electromagnetic pulse. Today's commercial airlines flying in the area might just lose control, those $0.99 wristwatches might stop permanently, and television sets would become primarily livingroom ornaments.
totoneila -
Since you seem to be fond of chess analogies, in my opinion detonating a tactical nuke offshore to demonsrate that one really means business is NOT analogous to moving one's queen cross board to a threatening position against the opposing king.
Instead, it would be far more analogous to throwing a cup of coffee in your opponent's face and then daring him to do something about it. In a few seconds you will no longer be playing chess at all but rather rolling on the floor trying to beat the crap out of each other.
Chess is a closed system and exists in a well-delinated universe and operates under clearly stipulated rules. The real (political) world is more of an open system with ill-defined boundaries and virtually no rules.
Hello Joule and other responders,
"In a few seconds you will no longer be playing chess at all but rather rolling on the floor trying to beat the crap out of each other."
No doubt, but beating the crap out of each other is still much, much better than shotguns [ICBMs] at 3 paces. Two bloodied parties can still stop, then negotiate vs for two dead men--> more more discussion required.
This is a difficult topic, and an offshore detonation & EMP might bring down some planes and other bad effects--but isn't that still better than massive conventional armies going toe-to-toe wrecking everybody & everything for hundreds of miles, then one side rapidly going full-bore with on-land tactical or strategic nukes to further sift the dust to talcum powder?
BushCo and/or Israel claim they have the option for a pre-emptive attack. Will Russia soon make the same claim in its sphere of influence? Could an offshore explosion be another kind of interim barking before the dogfight to help force negotiation? I would think it is easier to remain calm if it was just seawater getting cooked versus a major city or an entire army wiped out.
Ideally, we hope diplomacy works before any fighting breaks out. I am just trying to see if there can be an additional interim step--call it moving a chesspiece just half a square, or a new Kobeyashi Star-Trek type solution. My feeble two cents.
EDIT: think of that commercial where the guys are fighting with water ballons instead of guns-->then imagine offshore explosions as the water ballons.
Totoneila: I always make a point of reading your 'feeble two cents'.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23531024-details/The+retu...
Excerpt:
THERE are dreamers in Russia, too, but the man who leads that country, Vladimir Putin, is a realist, a calculating politician who plans years in advance. The terrible little war unfolding on the fringes of Europe is a story of the clash between Putin the ultra-realist and the dreamy Georgians, who have been exposed to Russia's vengeance thanks to some woolly thinking in the West.
A keen-eyed diplomat could have predicted last month - or precisely on 11 July - that war would break out in the Caucasus. Up to that date, many people believed that the newly-elected president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, would soften the harsh, anti-Western rhetoric of Putin, who had to resign in May after completing two terms, the maximum allowed.
Medvedev, a lawyer, promised to improve education, clean up corruption and make the courts operate more openly. Rather than wars, he declared that Russia needed a period of quiet to develop.
A bit more...
It is often said that Russia is a riddle wrapped inside an enigma. But the story of Vladimir Putin is really quite simple. In 1997 he wrote a doctoral thesis on the need for greater state control over Russia's raw materials; his presidency ended with a campaign of harassment of the oil company BP, seemingly designed to force it to cede control of its Russian joint venture TNK-BP to Russian interests.
With luck, the only displays this New Year will be class 4 fireworks or above (slightly)...
... innocent birds happily flying in mid-air would burst into flames (as repeatedly happened during the Pacific A-bomb tests) ... (Quite a spine-chilling sight, or so I'm told.)
"innocent birds happily flying in mid-air would burst into flames"
Ooo, I made a Haikku poem! (Unintended.)
:-)
4-8-5?
The 5-7-5 only works in Japanese because of the structure. You have to be more free with English. Minimalism is important, so keeping the 5-7-5 is good, but the feel and spirit of the style is more important. Descriptive, not narrative. A quite nice Haiku, actually.
innocent birds
happily flying in mid-air
would burst into flames
But to be more accurately Haiku, the interpretive elements need to go:
birds
flying in mid-air
burst into flames
To get the why, if not written within a context that clearly can assume a nuclear explosion, one might need more:
birds flying
toward Nagasaki
burst into flames
birds flying in mid-air
mushroom rising on the horizon
burst into flames
Heh... been a long time since I dabbled in poetry. Thanks gents. And no offense at my liberties, I hope.
Cheers
I realise that the west's MSM is calling Russia the aggressor. What has me confused is....America is sending war ships and military advisors to Russia and
placing all this war material on Russian door step.
Its not Russia sending an armada and flotilla to American door step.Is this a "War is peace" or "Debt
is wealth" or "Slavery is freedom" kind of thingy?
Doesnt Putin have martial arts training and Bush has
cheerleading experience? Will China loan America enough money to wage another war?
What would be the military objective of such a war? War cost a lot in terms of resources, human lives, and other non-tangible costs. What objective would be worth the cost in this case?
I'm not being sarcastic. I ask it as a legitimate military question.
What would be the military objective of such a war?
imo, the same military objective as the search for wmd's: the looting of the treasury.
There is no military objective. All naval NATO forces are sitting ducks in the Black Sea, just as US naval forces are in the Persian Gulf. The only objective is political and concerns the US election, as pointed out by many others over the past several days. Long ago it was appropo for US politicos to pull the tail of the British Lion to score pre-election points; the only difference now is the change in adversary, and the fact that nuclear war might be the end result if such tail-pulling escalated out-of-hand.
This could get really stupid (as opposed to just stupid)
Cold War tension rises as Putin talks of Black Sea confrontation
Russia has criticised the US for using naval ships to deliver aid to Georgia
Michael Evans, Defence Editor
A new Cold War between Russia and the West grew steadily closer today after the Kremlin gave a warning about “direct confrontation” between American and Russian warships in the Black Sea.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4622422.ece
Yes, one warship ramming another could kick it all off.
Meanwhile, here in the UK we have a demented, idiotic little schoolboy swat in charge of foreign policy:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/27/davidmiliband.ukraine
This slimy little prick has absolutely no clue about history, spheres of influence or the strategic concerns of great powers.
Despite his bought education, courtesy of his (slightly) famous daddy.
Dorme Bien.
It would be nice to think we wont end up as bit players in a radio-active ashtray passion play this autumn.
And Russia's response to Milliband...
Russia gives two fingers as it continues to stand up to the West
Oh! That makes me feel so much better putting Milliband at point ... knowing that we in the UK are rapidly running short on nat gas and that we are at the end of a very long pipe from Russia that could save us, for a while at least ... but even if we are best friends why would Russia lend us the money to burn their oil and gas? ... Dream on!
Looks like one of the would-be combatants blinked:
US cancels plan to send military ship to Poti
Is this an instance of sanity breaking out, or a new ploy in the ongoing chess match?
It doesn't matter where it docks as long as Joe Voter remembers that his White Hats are sending humanitarian aid after the Black Hats bombed civilians.
Would further south mean... closer to the pipeline?
Agreed. Joe Voter doesn't have a clue... nor, I think, does he want to. After all, how can events taking place all the way around the world affect him? To wit: "*Buuurb*, pass the beer, willya?...."
Your second point is extremely interesting, and brings up a point I hadn't thought about. Batumi is one of Georgia's main oil ports, and is a terminal for Azeri oil. It isn't part of the BTC, but is an important transit point for tankers. Who knows that a stop there for US military vessels means?
Yesterday the EIA released final revised data for June oil consumption (all liquids): 19.5 million barrels per day.
Compared to June 2007, consumption fell by almost 1.2 million barrels per day (5.6%).
The record for demand in the month of June was back in 2005: 21.2 million barrels per day. So current June demand was 1.7 mbpd or 7.7% less than the peak.
To find a June with comparable consumption to this year, you have to back to 2001. To find a June where less oil was consumed you have to go back to 1998.
Here's the big picture:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttupus2m.htm
Exports are at 2004 levels, USA consumption at 2001 level-it looks like the USA is losing out on the bidding war.
I am looking for a "by product" summary, comparing Juno 07 vs. June 08 and I am having some difficulty.
Alan
Individual products can be compared by looking them up here....
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm
For instance: Finished Motor Gasoline
June '07: 9.491 mbpd
June '08: 9.071 mbpd
delta: -4.4%
Distillate fuel oil (Diesel + Heating Oil) is down 9.5% comparing June 08 to June 07 (3,728,000 BPD in 2008; 4,114,000 BPD in 2007). It looks like folks aren't filling their heating oil tanks for winter yet. Earlier months don't drop off this much. The last supply was this low in June was 2002. EIA's graph:
Quote of the day:
Browne said: "Oil demand, not supply, will peak oil."
September 2009 : Oil at $250 per barrel
Browne said: "Told you so"
This is the normal official, blinkered, BP line. Browne is/will be correct, since the oil companies, in total, have sensibly not been prepared to invest enough to ensure a buffer of 10$ a barrel supply - if they had they would likely be out of business!
Browne was in business, and business in a free market economy must make a profit. So, he could also have said "lack of profitable oil supply will peak oil production".
Peak oil is not about the total reserves, which are likely thousands of times current daily use. Peak oil is about the lack of affordable/profitable reserves. It seems there is no more profitable $10 a barrel oil left for me to buy and maybe no $100 a barrel oil either.
But, there is a lot of very profitable $1 million a barrel oil that BP would like to sell me ... sadly for them, I don't want to pay the price ... stupid customer!
Re: We drive as we live
The good thing about this is that we have plenty of waste to trim from our lifestyle before fuel shortages become a matter of life and death.
Of course we seem disposed to make our supply of oil a matter of life and death (wars over the stuff) rather than give up our bad habits.
I think a recession will go a long way toward eliminating bad habits. Going to the mall to rack up credit card debt is not what people do when they're having trouble putting food on the table or gas in the tank.
Not true in too many cases. I managed an apartment complex with working class people. Over years I had to witness dozens of evictions with sometimes as little as a month after the loss of employment.
We would go into an apartment after an eviction and see big screen TV's, Playstations, DVD's and the like. Consumerism is a drug!
Joe
Japan fuels electric car revolution
An earlier link RE Tokyo charging stations for EVs.
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUST33634020080807
In some ways, EV technology is deficient at this point (cost, range, power). But rapid rollout of infrastructure for charging won't be a problem. That's one of its strengths.
The cost of the vehicle should not really be and issue, as leasing the batteries is becoming the preferred model.
This means that if you are a moderately high mileage driver, then you can buy your car for around the same as an ICE, and leasing the batteries will cost you less than the petrol for it would have done.
For lower mileage drivers something along the lines of the projected plug-in Prius might be a better bet, as the less powerful batteries needed would reduce the cost premium - it will likely to able to go around 10 miles on battery only, at a battery cost of $2-4k.
Very low mileage people will likely to be better off sticking to a small ICE car, or perhaps buying some sort of electric golf cart.
Battery swapping technology is also being rolled out in Israel at least, and so the occasional long run would be fine.
It is possible that some deals will include ICE car hire for long runs.
Battery swapping is a very cool idea, although personally I don't want to swap batteries if I can in any way be held reliable for the state of the batteries upon my returning them. Battery tech has come a long way, but it still can be easy to "trash" a battery through abuse. The person that leaves a battery at 100% capacity all of the time, or the person who leaves the battery at 0% capacity for an extended period of time can destroy the service life of a battery considerably.
I'm not saying that it isn't a good idea or scenario, just pointing out my personal objections to why *I* would be averse to the idea.
Battery swapping seems to me like an interim step at best. Battery technology appears to be improving at around 8% a year and that might be improved if there were serious investments. In 7-10 years, capacity will no longer be an issue. The main issues now is rapid recharging. My guess is that that will be solved before EVs become widespread. Widespread fast charging at charge stations would require very significant grid upgrades but we are going to have to do that for many other reasons as well.
See the latest Wired 16.09
http://www.wired.com/wired/issue/16-09
This explains Israel's - and soon to be Denmark's - roll out of infrastructure to support electric vehicles.
Still don't know where all the new electrons are going to come from though. (Don't get on my case about the apparent lack of understanding electrical energy propagation, it's just an expression).
Hello TODers,
Linked uptop: "Russia coal exporters told to prioritise domestic supply"
Guess Putin and most world leaders have not taken Alan Drake's advice to build a 'Strategic Reserve of Railcars'--so this is not good news for anyone. :(
Makes me wonder if Russian railcars normally used to haul potash, sulfur, urea, or phosphate rock are now being shifted over to help move domestic coal or crude to help keep the Russian economy moving. Recall the earlier link where an Eastern European country wanted to buy more raw phosphate from Russia, but instead, Russia told them they couldn't supply more. They had to go buy Morocco's phosphate to meet their need for an expanded supply.
Lastly, the article talked about shrinking Russian hydro-reserves. When you consider just how geographically big and vast Russia is: seems like more evidence of climate change to me.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, there is a dispute between Russia and the Ukraine about railcars. Seems that Russia ships stuff by rail to a port in the Ukraine. Once the railcars are empty, the Ukrainians then use them for their own use before returning them to Russia late. Not surprisingly, Russia is getting rather upset about the Ukrainians temporary theft of their railcars which IIRC can account for a couple of thousand railcars.
Hello Burgundy,
Thxs for this info. The first thing that popped into my mind was poking a stick into a sleeping bear...
In the office at my job is a poster that says "Do something brave, then run like hell"
Above that phrase is a photo of a penguin with two cymbals ready to bang together right above a polar bear.
Hillarious!
From the item on Canada "selling" the tar sands to the US public.
Clement happens to be the current Minister of Health. Canada is undergoing a Listeria outbreak due to tainted deli meat production. Out of 23 cases so far there have been 12 deaths.
The emerging back story is that the current government altered Canada's food inspection system without informing the public. To reduce costs food inspection was made the responsibility of the food processor. The processing plant from which the tainted food originated was the trial site for this new inspection system.
I don't think the American people really want to pay much attention to what Clement says. Given the nature and scope of the tainted food issue, and the likely death count, I don't think Clement will be representing Canadians in the future.
Interesting how revealing BOP's stance is... He doesn't really care about peak oil, is more concerned with how to reduce oil consumption regardless of supply. Those are really two very different positions, and BOP's doesn't belong on this site.
Dear lengould:
In the patch we have a name for folk like you.
After 20 weeks and 2 hours of participation I am glad to see you have finally stepped up to the plate and elected yourself as the self-appointed guardian of ideological purity on TOD.
If memory serves, the last dude who made that attempt was dismembered by Leanan. It weren't purty.
Cheers!
Interesting how revealing lengould's stance is... He really doesn't care about the sickness of a society that would have a Minister of Health who secretly sabotages public health by letting big business police its own safety and thus trim the budget for more tax cuts for... big business; then runs around pimping tar sands, an obvious environmental and health catastrophe that can still be averted.
That tells us that we will try to increase oil supplies regardless of the consequences, and that matters very much to this site.
Concerning the link up top: Russia coal exporters told to prioritise domestic supply
Well, as my aunt Minnie used to say, "I ain't one to say I told you so, but I did didn't I". ;-)
Russia has the world's second largest coal reserves, after the United States. China, India and Australia are numbers 3, 4, and 5. But coal prices are skyrocketing and domestic coal consumers in all countries are hurting, especially in Russia, China and India. India, long ago, became a net coal importer and China did also but only recently. Expect net coal exports to hit the zero point at or possibly before net oil exports to reach zero.
China urges more coal imports as shortage lingers. China, with the world's third largest reserves of coal, is trying desperately to import more coal. But net coal exports are drying up fast. Perhaps 150 nations of the world import virtually ALL their coal.
The Middle East generates the lions share of its electricity from natural gas. Six countries get over half their power from nuclear power plants. But the lions share of the rest of the world gets most or all its power from coal. And while the US, Russia, Australia and South Africa have enough coal to keep the power plants running for many years, the rest of the world does not. Peak coal, or more correctly "Peak Coal Exports" are set to be every bit as great a problem as Peak Oil.
Ron Patterson
I believe the Aussies are stepping up their export capacity. I expect to see China and India bid vigorously for it. The Aussies will be the major coal exporter for the forseable future, as they have lots of reserves and low domestic use. It will be interesting to see how the AGW movement affects this, if they will consider exports part of Australian emissions or China's problem.
The new Tata Ultra Mega plant in India is expected to use imported coal, mostly from Indonesia IIRC.
For those interested in world coal reserves can check out this Excel file; EIA World oil Reserves in Short Tons. But I find this html file much more interesting: World Coal Production, 1997-2006.
Notice that though China has less than half the coal reserves as the US, they produce over twice as much coal. And the African stats are alarming. South Africa produces 269 million tons per year, Zimbabwe 4 million tons and all the rest of Africa only 2 million tons. In other words, on the entire African continent only South Africa produces virtually any coal.
Ron Patterson
ELM in full action:
Vietnam is lessening the export of such fossil fuel as crude oil and coal to ensure sufficient supplies for oil refineries and energy thirsty industries like electricity and cement.
http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/08/18/NTkyNDA%3D/Vietnam_coal_expor...
South Africa mulls coal export curb
http://www.steelguru.com/news/index/2008/05/21/NDYzMjE%3D/South_Africa_m...
A logical economist would conclude from these actions (taken by Russia and others) that the market price of crude oil and coal is currently far too low. Were the market price reasonable, exporting countries would not be taking actions to restrict exports. The actual economic value of these energy sources is currently understated, and these countries know it-without these energy sources other national industries suffer.
Like other EIA reserve data, those coal numbers are really suspect. The EIA needs to be politically correct. I think Dave Rutledge has the best numbers. He puts coal URR for the US and Canada at 141 (~60 US cumulative) vs 275 in reserves for EIA. That's about 80 vs 275 for remaining or 29%. That is why Rutledge shows all fossil fuels peaking in about 2019.
It would be interesting to see a HL based analysis of the top net coal exporters--predicting net exports out for a couple of decades. It would appear that exported volumes of oil, natural gas and coal aren't looking too good.
Check out my link. That's what Rutledge does. HL for coal by major producers.
Edit: OK, maybe not major exporters.
Since coal supplies and exports are so tight, wouldn’t that create more demand on oil?, some of that demand could be because of the utilities (such as in the GCC), but most importantly a lot of demand will come from privately owned diesel generators, I believe we are already seeing that in India, with the massive increase in diesel demand due to higher need for electric power generation, and I believe we will see more of that in China and worldwide going forward as coal supplies to generate electricity dwindle.
It is also worth mentioning that those who can afford a private power generator, usually don’t have an issue in paying a high price for diesel, because they usually use it either out of necessity such as: business, hospital..etc or well off individuals who would like the comfort of electricity 24h a day.
Regards,
Nawar
The limiting factor in the use of coal is the CO2 absorption capacity of the atmosphere. If we define the climate of 1970s as the optimum climate to support a population of 6 billion, then this capacity had already been exceeded in the 1980s.
Wait until the Arctic summer sea ice has disappeared by 2013 as predicted by Maslowski and then you will understand what I mean.
It is an untested assumption to believe nature will allow us to burn whatever coal we want to burn. We may very well get an abrupt climate change which will physically force us to abandon coal.
Quite a few people are saying it's bizarre to build new coal ports in Australia the same time as domestic cap-and-trade. So far the politicians are changing the subject.
As Saif Lalani recently stated:
Coal: This in my opinion is slightly more likely than oil to bring the system down. Here the effects of export-land model (courtesy Jeffery Brown) are even more pronounced. China consumes more than 2.5 billion short tons of coal per year. It recently turned a net importer (2008 projected). The world export market is tiny and is less than 12% of the world coal production. China's coal consumption is rising at a 12-15% compounded annual rate. China's coal production growth rate is slowing dramatically and will rise less than 5% this year. Putting these numbers together means that China will swallow all of the worlds exports in 2-4 years. Unless coal production can be ramped up dramatically elsewhere it is lights out everywhere.
It is not lights out everywhere. It is lights out in coal importing countries that rely on imported coal for power generation.
Actually, it is lights out in coal importing countries that don't have the foresight to move away from coal power generation before coal imports dry up.
I'm curious what "moving away" would look like? I mean nukes still aren't cheap and for much of the world if you even say you are interested in them the US threatens to start bombing
PV and wind are spotty, dependent on conditions and still expensive compared to coal - and pv especially certainly isn't a cheap easy-to-switch-to alternative for a nation
so with foresight, what would a nation who imports most of their electricity in the form of coal actually move to?
Hydroelectric is an option for many nations, energy efficiency is an option for all nations.
Alan
Love hydro, but aren't most of the easy ones already pretty built-out? and haven't we been hearing about problems (e.g. South America) with shrinking snowpack resulting in less flow into existing hydro projects?
And if 3 Gorges in an example of a modern large-scale project, I would say it isn't really that great of an alternative...
In N. America there is still a lot of undeveloped hydro electric sites in Canada. The current estimate published in the latest IEEE Canadian magazine is there is twice the existing installed capacity. (I can provide a summation once I get it back from my boss).
If we are fortunate, we could get 50% built. To service the continent properly, these sites should feed into long distance HVDC lines that connect to major U.S. substations.
This is one way to move off coal in the U.S.
Before others get all nationalistic on me, understand that I'm not a fan of selling off our resources or supporting the U.S. BAU. However, a half hour presentation will show quite clearly that the fates of both countries are shared by a common N. American grid, (and NG pipeline system for that matter). Furthermore, we are not selling off resources, water, or rivers - despite the rhetoric on this side of the border - because it's real, real hard to pick up a river generating system and export it south.
Now, if we can only get the transmission lines built, ... sigh...
Die.
Move away from coal before coal dries up? Just what would you suggest, nuclear? Do you suggest that India switch to nuclear power? The Indian government is dirt poor and cannot possibly build enough nuclear plants in time. And since the notorious Dabahol/Enron gas plant has turned into such a disaster everyone is staying away from India.
India is building one nuclear plant, started well before the Dabahol/Enron disaster. Ground was broke on the Kudankulam nuclear plant in 2001 and the first fuel rods are scheduled to be loaded this fall and will probably be fully on line in a couple of years. But that is just ONE plant. There is just no way India could build enough nuclear plants to replace their coal plants.
Coal plants are what exist right now. To switch to something else, nuclear or whatever, would take decades and cost trillions, trillions that poor countries simply do not have. I know, it rolls easy off the tongue, "just switch to something else" and everything will be hunky dory. But it is a lot easier said than done. Foresight is totally useless if you simply have neither the time nor the money to switch to anything.
Ron Patterson
I'm mostly thinking of Solar Thermal. Yes, coal plants are a little cheaper right now, but if you assume a high rate increase in the price of coal, all of a sudden they start to look expensive. Nuclear is probably too expensive to be a good large-scale solution.
Solar thermal is nice because you know the cost of fuel will not increase, so it's easier to plan your long-term investment. I would suggest that they do what Australia is doing, which is to build solar thermal plants and then export their coal. I think this will make them lots of money in the long-term (Yes, I know that Aussie has lots of land and very few people, unlike India).
The other big savings would be efficiency (the one thing that Ultra Mega does have going for it). The Indian grid sucks, and they waste a ton of power that way. Most of the new coal plants being built in China are grossly inefficient, and only make financial sense if you assume that the price of coal will stay constant.
So you are advocating a sunrise to sunset generation system? These systems will not be able to make the jump from experiment to reliable source of power.
The reality is that any thermal generation system has a system efficiency of approximately 30% due to the laws of thermodynamics. The reality is that power generators, governments and consumers have to pull their heads out of their rears and accept thermal plants in the middle of built up urban areas. The thermal energy in the turbine exhaust steam has to utilized for space heating and cooling. This would displace significant amounts of fossil fuel usage for space heating, cooling and domestic hot water. Our efforts would be better spent developing this type of system (80% efficiency is possible)
Nuclear is only expensive if you look at the short term and count all its externalities (safety, waste disposal) while you allow 30,000 death per year from coal and run away global warming.
France has an electrical system built on 80% nuclear and has the lowest electricity prices in Europe. That makes nuclear the low cost option BEFORE you properly cost coal's externalities.
Yes, we are going to have to spend tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars to build a new energy infrastructure over the next 40 years and it is going to be tough on the poorer countries. But the alternative is to starve in the dark. If we were more reasonable about nuclear waste and safety (say they would only need to be ten times as good as coal) the plants would cost less. When we start to build the several thousand reactors that the world needs, the unit costs will be relatively less as well.
Matt Simmons says the world is going to have to spend $100 trillion or so in the next 10-15 years just to manage the oil decline. The world GDP is about $60 trillion per year now. In 1944, the US spent 38% of GDP on the war effort. 38% of world GDP is about $23 trillion per year right now. We should be able to come up with a few trillions per year now to build the new energy infrastructure, which is going to have to have a heavy nuclear component. We should build as much wind and solar as their intermittency will allow, which is probably around 20-30%.
Say, you wouldn't work for/be heavily invested in the nuclear industry, would you?
Hundreds of trillions of dollars? We don't have that kind of cash! Several thousand reactors? Fueled with what, magic pixie dust?
We don't have a even a few trillions - it's all been drained away into wars on distant sands and other corporate welfare programs.
No, I am a software guy working in health and human services. I have no investments. I just care about the world my kids will inherit.
There are at least millions of years of fission fuel. Check out Uranium Distribution
Get serious. The future of the world is at stake. If industry does not recognize the opportunity, then we might need to go on a world war footing. If they could do it in the 1940s, we can do it now.
"Get serious. The future of the world is at stake."
I am completely serious. The analogy to war footings and the 40's is absurd.
But in any case, what we really don't need is distractions like supposing we'll build thousands of reactors. This is nonsensical on many levels: financial, technological, logistical, fuel, siting, manpower.
"Millions of years of fission fuel" is, in fact, invoking magic pixie dust.
And hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe.
Could you put some numbers to this please? In particular, what energy output per day are you assuming in total (ie, for every single power station in the entire world that you would like there to be there in the future, what's the total power output). And what efficiency are you assuming in the generation process (ie, how many kilograms of uranium are required for 1 kWh)?
I'm not trying to dispute you at this point; I'm trying to figure out precisely what you believe so that I can try and check it.
"Could you put some numbers to this please?" Sure.
See Key Deffeyes in Scientific American. From the note at the bottom you will see that there are about one trillion tons of Uranium that "could be mined with an energy gain of 16 - 32" or greater (of 40 trillion in the crust). Each reactor consumes 200 tons / year. That's 1,000,000,000,000 / 200 = 5,000,000,000 reactor years. That's 5 billion / 403 reactors = 12 million years at current rates of consumption in once through light water reactors. Now multiply that by 4 to get Uranium + Thorium. Multiply the result of that by 20-30 for other fuel cycles that would get more of the 97% of total energy that is not consumed in the once through LWR.
At least millions of years is quite conservative.
You have to mine the ore, extract the U from the ore, enrich it to fuel quality, etc.
The U does not jump out of the ground and into your thousands of reactors.
Millions of years is quite nonsensical.
In fact, this in insanity.
Natural Uranium has at least 500,000 times the energy density of oil. Current power reactors measure EROEIs of 60-100 for all inputs.
What is "Natural Uranium"?
As far as your EROEI, how do you calculate that? All inputs? Nonsense. This is absurd.
Natural Uranium (eg unenriched) is 99.3% U-238 and .7% U-235.
When Uranium has 500,000 the energy density of oil (Wikipedia), why would you be surprised that power plants measure high EROEIs? Because anti nuclear activists say they do not?
You are delusional. See, you need to mine the uranium ore. You need to refine the uranium ore. You need to enrich it to reactor concentration. All of these things require a lot of energy. Then there's dealing with the wastes, etc.
You do not seem to know what you are talking about. You need to account for all of the above in your EROEI. It is nothing like what you are claiming.
Why would you believe that power plants measure such absurd EROEI's? Because pro nuclear activists say they do?
I wrote that power plants have measured actual inputs.
You've carefully avoided relating about how much power you're expecting to be produced, and the searching the page suggests that this is the first occurrence of the number 403 on this page. Since France currently has 59 nuclear power plants I'm guessing you're talking about America only. So how much power would these 403 plants produce, and is this power level suitable for American power demands you envisage in, say, twenty years time?
From this I ought to be able to work out how many nuclear power plants you'd be envisaging for the entire world. (Since you responded so vociferously in our last exchange, I'm NOT talking about anyone subsidizing or using marxist resource allocation but on the assumption that least some substantial proportion of the rest of the world will be at least as hard-working, innovative and be earning the money to deploy into such projects.) I'll also see if I can find some more up to date and more conservative estimates of uranium availability than the 1980 link you posted.
I am envisioning a 19 fold increase in Nuclear power and a 158 fold increase in Wind and Solar by 2050. The paper is now in the third draft and it should be posted in a week or two.
FYI, The Dept of Energy study concluded that the USA can only build 8 new nukes in the next decade. I read it and concluded 6 or 7 is more realistic..
42 years is *FAR* too long to wait/plan.
Any plan over 30 years is worthless, the world changes too much.
Nukes are, IMO, a nice late, secondary effect, but too late, too llittle as a centerpiece of a 15-20 year plan (hopefully we have that long).
Alan
Under existential crisis circumstances and not business as usual?
I cannot believe the DOE would be considering the circumstance likely to prevail. Maximum world effort? No expense spared?
I will take a while to get the program under way, unfortunately.
6, 7 or 8 new nukes in a decade is the maximum safe and economic build rate. Skilled labor is the limiting factor (and no, you cannot do a massive crash training program, etc. The existing nuke safety trainign regs set an upper limit). I would STRONGLY oppose any faster build !
There are much better options for our limited resources than a BAU solution like nukes anyway. If you can waste money of a redux of the 1980s (see dozens of nukes started but never completed, all others MASSIVE cost overruns, in the last Rush to nuke) then spend the money instead (whilst building 7 new nukes) on
1) Energy efficiency & conservation
1a) More insulation and better windows
1b) Solar and tankless hot water heaters
1c) High efficiency heat pumps
2) Non-Oil Transportation
2a) Electrified RRs
2b) Urban Rail
2c) Bicycles
2d) Walkable neighborhoods/TOD
3) Renewable generation
3a) Wind
3b) Hydroelectric (small in USA, 15 GW in Canada)
3c) Geotherma;
3d) Solar PV
3e) All Other
and HV DC and pumped storage to match generation to load.
Enough things to spend money on, that CAN BE BUILT FASTER THAN NUKES !
You are simply putting lots of effort down the wrong road.
Best Hopes for Your Efforts,
Alan
Nukes are the slow, secondary part of the solution that can help "fill the gaps" after the better solutions are implemented.
Well that's not what you said that the DOE said. Before you said the DOE said in the NEXT DECADE. But presumably after you gear up and increase manufacturing capacity you can build many more. We can build more sooner if it is urgent, which it certainly is.
We are going to need 27 TW of electrical generation in 2050 and have fossil fuels for maybe two. The only energy sources on you list are wind and solar. My plan scales those by 158 fold. Yours would be close to three times that. And you plan is dominated by their intermittency
You really should consider some nuclear (your plan essentially eliminates it). In the several times you and I have discussed this, you have never provided any rational reason why we could not have a large nuclear build up other than your fears. The future of the world is at stake.
Louisiana is to host a nuclear production line, which would be capable of turning out 1-2 reactors per year when fully operational:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/08/westinghouse-ap1000-nuclear-power-plant...
A lot of advantages from building in a controlled environment rather than on-site should be expected, together with better costs.
The US uses around 460GW or so of electricity on average.
Building twin 1.6GW reactors on the present 100 or so sites would give a generating capacity of 300GW. If used in conjunction with air-source heat pumps then much of the natural gas burn could also be displaced.
That is a lot of power to forgo.
We can build more sooner if it is urgent, which it certainly is
IMHO, wishful thinking, not supported by hard analysis. Only if society agrees to unsafe and uneconomic builds can we likely increase that rate for the first ten years.
After that start-up the numbers can increase substantially. By twenty years the numbers could be very large. But by then renewable, efficiency and conservation could be supplying well over 2/3rds of US electricity.
There is a place for nukes. Relatively small and late, but a place.
Alan
I am not sure what the substantial disagreement is.
You appear to agree that nuclear plants should be built as quickly as it is safe and economic to do so.
I'd also like to point out that above a certain level of penetration we don't really know how to integrate intermittent wind power, and that the cost of transmission lines from it's remote locations will be substantial - in that respect the locations of nuclear plants are much more convenient.
Environmental concerns about wind turbines are also more pronounced than some of its advocates would like to let on, however safe they may be for birds, they are a disaster for bats:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4608418.ece
Wind farms cause thousands of bats to die from trauma - Times Online
I feel that the concerns of those who are particularly sensitive to the noise and disturbance of wind turbines should not be dismissed out of hand, either.
I don't want to exaggerate the difficulties with renewables, but if one has the position that we should develop all resources, then a theoretical assessment of what proportion of energy is supplied by what seems unnecessary.
It's surely worth pointing out though that the way we actually know how to provide base-load power without using fossil fuels is by nuclear energy, and that the difficulties of providing it with renewables are substantial.
Personally I have great hopes that Nanosolar's scheme to build 2-10MW municipal power plants will provide a lot of the power America needs, but that doesn't stop me thinking that Toshiba building a nuclear power plant production line is a great step forward.
Economics and the normal competition of engineering development should decide the power mix - for instance if annular fuel fulfils its promise that would greatly improve nuclear economics.
For much of the world, and in particular northern Europe, the range of options is much less than in the US.
We could build the reactors if people would get their collective heads out of their collective asses. It's quite simple, standardize a design, focus our engineering and production inputs, stop building SUV's and put those resources to work in this plan. Stop building new roadways, and put those inputs into the plan. This could provide the concrete (so to speak, since concrete is local).
Building the transmission lines could be a major problem though...
Better get Yucca Mountain going too...
The bigger problem is getting the public will behind a program such as this. And, as usual it would take a major event to turn the efforts to what is needed. This doesn't give me much comfort.
At times like this I get all ornery and unsociable with my feeling of "Lead, follow, or get the f_ck out of the way!" It can be done.
This is hilarious. It is like telling a flat broke homeless family that they must spend $1000 a month on rent and utilities or sleep in the street. Like they have a choice!
Sterling, ever hear of the saying, "You cannot get blood from a turnip?" Neither countries nor people can possibly spend money they do not have. Well, that is unless you can trick people into lending it to you with the promise that your grandchildren will pay it back. The US can currently do that but not many other nations. And the day is fast approaching when the US will no longer be able to do that either.
Ron Patterson
Then how did we fund World War II?
Say we need to build 4,000 reactors for our new energy infrastructure. At $10 billion each (they current cost 6-8 for basically custom units), that's $40 trillion over 42 years.
World GDP is $60 trillion now on trend going to $350 T in 2050 (current dollars). My model says it goes to about 170 T in 2050. Very simply (60 + 170 / 2) * 42 years = $4,830 trillion of world GDP between now and 2050 in current US dollars. My 4,000 reactors would cost 40/4830 or .8% of world GDP during that period. Compare that to 38% for a really serious world war level of effort.
Even with your extremely rosy calculations, that's a trillion dollars a year.
Forget about it. There are quite a few other things going on.