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Hurricane Gustav and Energy Infrastructure - Early Open Thread
Posted by Nate Hagens on August 27, 2008 - 11:08am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: chuck watson, hurricane gustav, infrastructure damage, methaz, original, shut-in production [list all tags]
(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4478 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)
By now most people know that by this weekend there will likely be a hurricane spinning its way somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. This open thread outlines the initial analysis by Chuck Watson/KAC/UCF and some resources on GOM oil and gas infrastructure. ( We will try and update this with new graphs and forecasts as long as this storm is considered a threat to energy infrastructure)
(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4478 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)
From KAC/UCF google earth link
From Chuck Watson:
Both GFDL and HWRF (which will replace GFDL) are showing fairly explosive amplification in the mid Gulf. Even the official forecast is now showing damage to the OCS facilities, and GFDL is showing Katrina-like long term disruption. None of the official tracks are onshore yet, but our in-house runs out to 180 hrs are showing hits to refineries and pipelines, as well as knocking SPR off line for a couple weeks as well. Of course, estimates beyond 72 hours are more "possible scenarios" than real forecasts, and a little wobble one way or the other makes a big difference in damage, but Gustav is starting to get scary.
The Gulf of Mexico represents about 25% of overall US production, or represents 10% of US Oil usage. (*Ed. Note - I believe Nat Gas is about 13-14% of US production)
Using the 6Z 27 Aug GFDL run, we are showing some facilities off line until early December. The total loss is 12% of Gulf oil production between now and the end of the year (126 days). Interestingly, NG isn't so much of a hit - only a 5% loss of the remainder of the year's production.
I asked Chuck Watson what the odds were that this storm wouldn't even make it to the Gulf as a strong hurricane this was his reply:
20% chance it stays as a high TS/low Cat1 due to interactions with Cuba, crosses the northern Yucatan, then across the southern Gulf as a week system.
20% chance it tracks across eastern Cuba, never really gets it together and stays weak cat1 or lower up the west coast of FL (Fay like track).(this is my current favorite scenario for some reason)
30% chance it follows the current guidance and stays below cat 3.
30% chance it follows current guidance, amplifies, and is cat 3 or higher.
100% chance we're probably wrong . . .;-)
We are still 4-5 days out from a potential US landfall so uncertainty is high, though given the stakes, Gustav is becoming kind of a binary event. Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models.
On current track, which the weather geeks (and I use the term "geek" in kinship...) at http://easternuswx.com and Jeff Masters at WU say is too early to say for sure, but this could do a lot of damage.
PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION
We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we'd like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.
Also, here's the EIA's Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here's a link to the national page.
Here's another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)
Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)
Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)
Here's a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps, emphasizing Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Click on oil production. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.
i recall when katrina hit (or was it after rita), the gov't released the SPR.
i wonder if they'll do the same. any thoughts?
The long term problem facing the Gulf Coast is the rapid decline in oil shipments from the proximal producers--Venezuela & Mexico (VenMex)--which will force the refiners to rely on much longer supply lines, from Africa and the Middle East, subject to the overall world supply/demand situation.
I had expected that we would hear calls for a release of oil from the SPR by the end of the summer, specifically because of crude supply problems on the Gulf Coast--my premise being that refiners would have problems fully offsetting the decline from VenMex. It looks like I was wrong, and to give credit where credit is due, I suspect that the primary reason that we have not heard calls for SPR releases (specifically tied to the Gulf Coast) is because of declining demand (which is Datamunger's point).
However, in May, 2007 VenMex accounted for more than 25% of US net petroleum imports, and as of May, 2008 their combined petroleum shipments to the US were dropping at an annual rate of 27%/year. Venezuela is currently on track to approach zero net oil exports around 2027. Mexico will probably approach zero net oil exports in the 2010 to 2012 time frame.
Regarding the hurricane, it looks like our key problem is going to be gasoline supplies. Using a Minimum Operating Level (MOL) of 170 mb, we have about 63 hours of supply in excess of MOL.
The US barely survived Katrina.
If Gustav hits at the same force/location
The US becomes a different place.
One example:
Will the the CSX railroad be rebuilt across the Rigolets.
And will it be rebuilt along I-10 in MS like
CSX wanted after Katrina.
What on earth are you blathering about now? Show me any proof whatsoever that we "barely" survived as a country.
"Blathering"?
Ihold with all statements I've made that the US never recovered from Katrina.
Name one thing in the US that's improved since Katrina?
Of course you think that the Financials have absolutely nothing
to do with Katrina at all.
That housing peaked in 05? Nothing whatsoever.
Come on back. Love talking to people channeling Cheney.
How do you think that bush got that 71% disapproval rating?
;}
Population and GDP.
Though I will grant that from a wide angle lens, neither of these necessarily represents an 'improvement'.
Population and GDP?
So as the pop grows we're better off with fewer resources available?
And GDP? Don't even get me started.
You wreck your car and the GDP improves.
GDP is so wrong a measurement scale I'm surprised you even brought it up.
"But, even so, there’s one thing I know, and that I knew even at the end of the day on Monday, August 29th, 2005, when I was one of the small group of people in the country who was aware the coast was buried under water, even as newscasters crowed (premptively as it turned out) that NOLA had dodged the bullet: the Mississippi Gulf Coast is never going to become a Homestead and Naranja Lakes, with grass slowly overtaking empty slabs. The surge and wind hadn’t even finished dying away when people started picking up the pieces, and they haven’t stopped."
http://www.wunderground.com/education/Katrinas_surge_part10.asp
This guy and me were on the same page that day.
I knew what a CAT 5 storm was capable of.
My school, built to withstand Katrina was under 4 floors of water
(28').
Do yourself a favor and read the series this guy put together.
To see how unprepared NOLA now is.
And the Superdome/Convention Center are off limits for
storm shelter.
I wonder how many NO natives are aware of that?
I think an interesting alternative to the GDP as a measure of U.S. economic health is
Infrastructure Quality/National Debt or
Infrastructure Spending/Annual Budget
Low spending and/or large debt, then we're not doing so well, which is the current situation.
In 2005, ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) gave the U.S. infrastructure an average grade of D, and said that we would need to spend at $1.6 trillion dollars, which I'm sure is now too low. Check out the link below. Its not a pretty picture.
National Infrastructure Report Card
http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=103
I had dinner with a couple of civil engineers recently. They said that we should expect to see more and more bridges falling down.
I concur. Even without peak oil. With peak oil, it's going to be worse.
yikes!!
do they know where?
In a Post-PO world, do we even need bridges...? At least for cars...?
Well without as many cars and trucks on them (esp. trucks) they should last longer...
Just want to say thanks to Chuck for sharing this data. I see that his work is a commercial venture but appreciate his allowing TOD to view his projections.
Thanks!
We agree! It's nice when people contribute time and expertise receiving something 'other' than pecuniary rewards.
Agree. 8D
Is there a concise update on the status of New Orleans' flood defense systems? I want to believe that they are at least back up to pre-Katrina levels, but I am skeptical...if Gustav comes in weaker than Katrina or less-directly, is there still a threat to the city?
I'm no expert but I will say this. Katrina passed East of New Orleans as a Cat 3 storm (after reaching Cat 5 in the Gulf). The east side of the storm is the more powerful, meaning New Orleans MISSED the brunt of the storm.
According to the latest models, Gustav is projected to make land just West of New Orleans, placing the city in the bullseye of the most destructive forces.
It's always something of a crap shoot cowboy as which would be the worst track for a particular storm. N.O. is actually about 90 miles north of the Gulf. If there are high winds and a slow mover a track to the east of NO could be the worst. Lake Pontchatrain borders the north side of my former hometown. Strong and sustained north winds from an E tract storm would push the whole lake into the city. On the other hand, a slow, very rainey storm settling over the city could cause more flooding then Katrina without breaking a single levee.
Regardless of the path and nature of each storm, living below sea level seldom works out well.
"N.O. is actually about 90 miles north of the Gulf."
With all due respect, Rock, NO is now on the GOM.
"It all comes down to this: You simply can't build the levees high enough under any scenario in Louisiana," said Clifford Smith, a member of the prestigious Mississippi River Commission, a seven-member panel created by Congress to advise the corps on works projects. "That the corps still doesn't act on this fact, doesn't commit to building wetlands and barrier islands immediately, leaves me so depressed you can't imagine it. I'm in depression over this."
http://www.grist.org/feature/2008/03/20/tidwell/
"The number one thing protecting New Orleans right now is not the corps, it's chance," says Tulane University law professor and coastal protection activist Oliver Houck. "The historical odds show Katrina doesn't come every day. That's all that's really protecting us right now. The odds."
And if we can't save New Orleans, is there really any hope for Miami, Charleston, New York, Annapolis, and all the other low-lying coastal cities in the queue."
The scope of the catastrophe caught New Orleans by surprise.-
NYTimes Aug 31 2005
They'll be surprised again.
New Orleans is more vulnerable than at the time of Katrina, which destroyed some 700,000 acres of protective coastal marsh according to this. Check out the video for details.
Good point Mc. I guess you could say the NOLA is actually part of the GOM that has been reclaimed just as the Dutch do. Well, not quit as good as the Dutch perhaps.
I still remember the first time I went to the top of the Plaza Tower (first sky scraper in NOLA). It was really amazing for this city boy to see that the city was really surrounded by water. Some of the water might only be a few inches deep but it was everywhere you looked.
Sure there is and it beats the FEMA trailers
http://www.n55.dk/MANUALS/WALKINGHOUSE/walkinghouse.html
This one is water, wind and hurricane proof...
http://www.n55.dk/MANUALS/MICRO_DWELLINGS/micro_dwellings.html
Yeah, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the track. Every 3 hours or so they update the forecast, and you can see the track change. For example, the 11AM shows it heading right up the LA/MS line. The next forecast will almost certainly show something else.
In the past I have seen animations for other hurricanes where they just play the sequence of forecast maps, and you can see the 5-day out path wobbling all over the place.
In a couple of days it will be easier to say where this is really headed.
Basically, they are about where they were before Katrina - could probably handle a direct hit by a Cat 2, or the back side of a Cat 3. (This from a friend of mine who did the post-storm analysis for FEMA that has yet to see the light of day . . .).
--Chuck Watson
A Stationary Tropical Storm can flood New Orleans.
The MRGO is still not fixed.
Like one guy said, the good news is all the erodable soil
that was in the levees has been washed away.
NO is lower now by 3 inches than when Katrina hit.
St Bernard will be inundated once again:
"Out of the thousands of buildings in the parish, only a handful were salvageable afterwards. Out of 26,900 homes, less than a half dozen were left habitable. Think about that number; some of you reading the blog may not be living in a city with that many residences."
http://www.wunderground.com/education/Katrinas_surge_part05.asp
For the core of City of New Orleans (not NO east, Lower 9th, Algiers across the river) flooding came from collapse of the interior canal levees FAR below design standards.
The Interior canals are used to take pumped rain water out to the Lake.
"Solution" was to create movable dams to prevent water coming onto the interior canals (limited volume inside the canals even if they fail), and a half-assed attempt to install pumps to bypass the temporary dam.
IMO (and others) rainwater flooding is a near certainty with a majort hurricane because of the new "bypass" pumps installed.
ATM, 33% chance of hitting New Orleans.
BTW: Pay no attention to mcgowanmc, he has no understanding or knowledge and he has an ax to grind.
Best Hopes for dodging the bullet till 2011,
Alan
"BTW: Pay no attention to mcgowanmc, he has no understanding or knowledge and he has an ax to grind.
Best Hopes for dodging the bullet till 2011,
Alan"
;}
Nonplussed. Completely.
That you could even say that. As an aside. But now I've got complete empathy for you, Alan.
"At every step in the scramble to correct the engineering breakdowns of Katrina, independent experts have questioned the ability of the corps, an agency that has accumulated ever more power over the fate of New Orleans, to do the right job.
On the road to recovery, the agency has installed faulty drainage pumps, used outdated measurements, issued incorrect data, unearthed critical flaws, made conflicting statements about flood risk and flunked reviews by the National Research Council.
At the same time, the corps has run into funding problems, lawsuits, a tangle of local interests and engineering difficulties — all of which has led to delays in getting the promised work done.
you owe me an apology.
Sincerely,
James
From the sameAP Article from 2 days ago-quoted above:
"This does not mean they'd stand up to storms for a century. Under the 100-year standard, in fact, experts say that every house being rebuilt in New Orleans has a 26 percent chance of being flooded again over a 30-year mortgage; and every child born in New Orleans would have nearly a 60 percent chance of seeing a major flood in his or her life."
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jMa_nuEikwXhi2pghnzi2sacoKfAD92OF3I80
You keep saying "North" and "South" levees on the Mississippi River when there is no such thing. Only East Bank and West Bank and either upriver or downriver.
You do not understand the hydrodynamics (or even the difference) between river flooding, rainwater flooding or storm flooding.
You have made nonsensical statements about "needing to blow the levees" to let a 26" rainfall out !
And more.
You are scanning the various blogs (some of which are quite good) and extracting whatever serves your purposes.
You claim to be from New Orleans, and then give evidence (eye of Camille passing over your school) that you are from the Casino Coast.
No apology necessary.
Alan
Didn't the corp finally get permission to install floodgates on the canals?
I do not know about "permission", but they have installed the gates and inadequate pump capacity around them. The levees are a US Army project and have been since 1928.
Alan
But East bank and West bank are arranged similar to the banks of the Seine in Paris, correct? i.e. the 'east bank' will always be on your right as you float downriver, which would actually take you east and north for a bit through NOLA?
Hello.
Just got back and read your post.
I was told earlier that I need to be less specific about
my location history details.
Let's take this one item at a time.
North Levee of the MS River:
The mound of dirt that is on higher ground. Example:
Covington, LA is North of the MS River, and it's levees.
And there's a reason that NO is called the Crescent City.
You can stand on St Charles and have the levee West, South, and East.
Do you really want to play this game?
So I say Upriver, South Levee. Should I say "Levee opposite
the Bonnet Carre" instead?
Please.
You never ask for me to expand on any of this. AAMOF, you tend to ignore
what I write, even as I post back up sources. You could use some to
back up your opinion of the Corps doing such a great job.
Now we come to it:
"ou have made nonsensical statements about "needing to blow the levees" to let a 26" rainfall out !"
Taken out of context. Like it's some kind of whim, when instead it goes to the heart of the Corp's mission.
In context, NO can easily be saved from any flood at any time by blowing
(creating a crevasse) on the levee opposite NO Upstream, say,
opposite and a little downstream of the Bonnet Carre.
That clear enough? On the same levee that the Morganza Spillway is located on.
Better. Why not open up the Morganza to allow more MS River into it.
Again, the answer is because once opened up, the Morganza can never be closed.
The River will switch into the Atchafalaya. More on that as and if you wish.
"Relations between diverse racial and economic groups were needlessly strained by the lack of planning and flood management procedures. Fearing that a flood in New Orleans would ruin the economic structure and investment stature of that city, bankers and commodities brokers convinced the governor to open the levee at Caernarvon 14 miles downstream. The destruction of the levee and the resulting flood inundated the two lower parishes of Louisiana displacing thousands of people and destroying the trapping, farming, and fishing industries for the following several years. Given the crevasses upstream from New Orleans, the necessity of dynamiting the levee was questionable.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-9.htm
Even in 1927, these folks knew that creating a crevasse anywhere near NO
would divert the River, never to get it back.
"You claim to be from New Orleans, and then give evidence (eye of Camille passing over your school) that you are from the Casino Coast.
No apology necessary."
I said I lived in NO. Tulane to be precise.
Traveling from Fat City and River Ridge to Westwego to Pat O'Brians/the Monteleone to the Rigolets
and Bay St Louis. For 4 intensive years, then 15 years off and on.
I've had to look up to watch freighters pass by, so don't get holier than thou with me. I know how quickly garbage rots and smells on Bourbon.
Laissez les bon temps roulette is the NOGC motto.
Might as well be "Laissez faire et laissez passer, le monde va de lui même!" .
NO sinks and the waters rise. From now on.
And you will leave NO within the next 10 years or you will, like the
Black shareholders above, be living on the MS River Levee
located closest to the RD Shell building.
Sincerely, noting your lack of apology,
James
Concise status update: They suck.
IF this run verifies, I fear major implications, and not only for New Orleans. It is still too early to say, but at least residents have warning this time. We'll see steep discount rates in action....
Hello Nate,
LOL! Have you noticed how the hurricane graphic looks like a MRI: two brain halves, primitive brainstem in the middle, major artery and vein running down the neck, white area as the spinal cord? Let's talk discount rates as the head spins at puree' blender speeds!
US Gulf Energy Region Remains 'Under The Gun' of Gustav
My favorite map of GOM infrastructure: Gulf of Mexico : Maps and Spatial Data. Select the PDF Visual 1. Everything is on this map, rigs, pipelines, refineries, leases.
The EIA data released about an hour prior to this posting suggest a moderately tight supply of crude &
refined products
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/ForexTopStory.aspx?Node=B3&Id=695445
It was considered top news at FOREX.
The real story seems to be natural gas though. UNG has
been on a tear recently,up 6% yesterday and 2 1/2 already today.
Iam inclined to believe NG is being shadowed by oil
prices and concerns.But, whats a smuck like me know anyway? Oy gevey!
as was discussed last week or so, there is all time record short interest by speculators in the NG contract - so even if this storm ends up being benign, some of the larger shorts HAVE to reduce exposure to what would be a 3+ standard deviation spike.