The Oil Drum

(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4478 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)

Updates today from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF:

Here's the 23:00 8/31 update: Synthesis of data available at this time: The Loop looks to take a direct hit. Estimating minimum 14 days down time assuming it holds up to specs. Peak waves probably in the 40-45 ft range offshore, so any remaining older stuff built to the older air gaps are probably toast; the newer stuff (55ft gaps) should be OK, but will take a few wave hits. Some potential for undersea slumping and scour - bet we loose some pipelines. GOM overall production will probably take at least a 3-5% permanent hit; pending new wells. The models yield these data for the next 60 days as of right now (longer term under the fold):

14 day:    8.07 MMBBL ( 50.12% normal), gas   59.56 BCF ( 66.06% normal)
30 day:   19.84 MMBBL ( 57.51% normal), gas  140.53 BCF ( 72.74% normal)
60 day:   42.75 MMBBL ( 61.96% normal), gas  298.11 BCF ( 77.15% normal)

Bunch of minor damage to "refinery row" (in along the river); most should be back up in a week or so, if product is available.

Humanitarian note: this isn't a great track for NOLA, but the weakness we're seeing on the normally stronger side of the storm may save it from worse damage.

Based on the 18Z (2pmEDT) update: While not wonderful, the forecasts for GOM infrastructure continue to improve. While the NHC forecast remains pessimistic, and Gustav shows some signs of trying to regain its strength, it is not having a lot of success. For wave and surge generation, organization is key - even if the spot winds pick up, unless the wind field is organized well overall surges and waves will not be as high as the raw wind speed might indicate. Our surge models are dropping water levels significantly (still, 18 ft will ruin your day). Surge model run is attached - much less dramatic than the Cat 4 maps floating around. Damage trends for other models are improving as well. This is looking less and less bad for the GoM Oil/Gas production, IF the post-Katrina improvements hold. The disorganization and track shifts have reduced the threat to the LOOP - makes me happier. I'm really thinking that by tomorrow evening we will be talking about "dodging a bullet". Final word: DON'T NOT EVACUATE JUST BECAUSE THINGS LOOK BETTER! These are just models. Don't bet your life on it.

UPDATE: 23:00 EDT 8/31 - Graphic below is damage models based on LBAR hurricane forecast track, key is below. Numerical damage estimates are below the fold for oil and natural gas shut-in and damage.

Path/damage estimates using LBAR 23:00EDT forecast-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

We are not hurricane experts at theoildrum.com. Neither are we experts on damage forecasts to oil and gas infrastructure from weather events (though thankfully we do have an expert that helps us). What we try to do, and have been doing for over 3 years, is articulate the fragility and urgency of our nation's, and our world's, energy situation. As Hurricane Gustav moves nearer, and professional meteorologists and energy analysts gauge the impact it may have on our energy infrastructure, feel free to browse our archives of hundreds of empirically based analyses and perspectives on the myriad energy issues that form the backdrop not only for this hurricane, but for any exogenous event that disrupts the increasingly uneasy balance between energy supply and demand in our modern interconnected world.

There are many resources under the fold (by clicking "there's more" in this post), including details of the latest oil/infra damage estimates from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as well as lot of other resources including rig maps, models, google earth maps, and a lot more in the comments.

Click map to go to WUnderground

From Noon EDT 8/31: Here's the noon update. Given the weaker forecast at landfall, things are not looking as dire. Bad, but not catastrophic. Still showing a near direct hit on the LOOP, but damage has come down, to weeks rather than months. CAUTION: Just because the storm is weakening, and therefore less forecast damage to the GoM infrastructure, doesn't mean this storm can't kill you. Stay safe, stay gone!

From 6a EDT 8/31: The LOOP is my main concern at this stage. It's an important piece of infrastructure, and it is right in the bullseye. A 20 mile left or right shift, and 10 or 15 knots of wind speed means the difference between days and months of repair/recovery time. NHC track is Bad for the LOOP; some tracks to the east are better (not so good for NOLA, though). I'm sticking fairly close to my probabilities from a couple days ago, minus the Mexico and Tampa side trips: 30% Cat 3/4 landfall in LA, 30% cat 2 landfall in LA, 10% to Pensacola area, 20% farther west, 10% something goofy.

(UPDATED 23:00 EDT 8/31)
Here are production estimates from Chuck Watson:

LBAR ATCF Forecast Time: 2008090100
14 day:    8.07 MMBBL ( 50.12% normal), gas   59.56 BCF ( 66.06% normal)
30 day:   19.84 MMBBL ( 57.51% normal), gas  140.53 BCF ( 72.74% normal)
60 day:   42.75 MMBBL ( 61.96% normal), gas  298.11 BCF ( 77.15% normal)
90 day:   66.53 MMBBL ( 64.28% normal), gas  466.48 BCF ( 80.48% normal)
6 mon :  164.04 MMBBL ( 79.25% normal), gas 1028.71 BCF ( 88.74% normal)
1 year:  376.79 MMBBL ( 89.77% normal), gas 2206.80 BCF ( 93.88% normal)

A comparison of Chuck's models over the past day for a reliability check:

Compare the 6 month forecast from the last five model runs:

30/18z:  152.45 MMBBL ( 73.65% normal), gas 1040.40 BCF ( 90.30% normal)
31/06z:  139.37 MMBBL ( 67.33% normal), gas  972.17 BCF ( 84.39% normal)
31/12z:  159.36 MMBBL ( 76.99% normal), gas 1007.31 BCF ( 87.44% normal)
31/18z:  172.35 MMBBL ( 83.26% normal), gas 1149.46 BCF ( 99.78% normal)
  1/0z:  164.04 MMBBL ( 79.25% normal), gas 1028.71 BCF ( 88.74% normal)

Early on 8/31, when models were improving, Chuck said:

This is looking less and less bad for the GoM Oil/Gas production, IF the post-Katrina improvements hold. The disorganization and track shifts have reduced the threat to the LOOP - makes me happier. I'm really thinking that by tomorrow evening we will be talking about "dodging a bullet".

Final word: DON'T NOT EVACUATE JUST BECAUSE THINGS LOOK BETTER! These are just models. Don't bet your life on it.

Here's a new graphic for the forecasted surge from Chuck (17:00 8/31 update):

Also, an important Safety Tip: it is VITAL that folks DO NOT use our info for evacuation planning (this means you, Alan!). Our discussions here are with respect to a bunch of hardware, not feline or even human lives. We don't want to be wrong on either the high or low side, especially since being wrong on the high side has bad consequences for pricing, that's why I keep emphasizing this thing may not be as bad as the models are predicting because there are signs and portents the storm will not gain as much strength as forecast. If you are in an evacuation zone, get your pets, get your insurance paperwork, and GET OUT.
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A note on our modeling process: we take the official NHC track, the raw computer model tracks like GFDL, HWRF, LBAR, etc, and even run our own in-house fast cycle track/intensity models. These track and intensity estimates are feed to our main hurricane model (TAOS), which computes the wind, waves, storm surge, currents, etc. at each point in our database of over 50,000 elements in the GoM like rigs, platforms, pipelines, pumping stations, refineries, etc. We then have engineering
models for each type of infrastructure that calculates the damage and estimated down time for that element, as well as downstream impacts (eg if a pipeline is down, the upstream elements can't pump and the downstream elements don't get product).

Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. We will be updating this thread with damage estimate and breaking news as this story unfolds, as well as post another story on why Hurricane Gustav or any exogenous supply event is potentially critical in a world with little slack in supply of high quality oil.

HPC 5 day rainfall estimates (12z 8/31)

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

Here's a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.

Just to give you a rough idea of where things are, the map above is a probability swath for Katrina (OLD TRACK MAP!) with the Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development (100,000 bd); the Holstein development that produces at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that may have ramped up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they were sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.The white dot is where Port Fourchon is.  This is where the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is located. Rigzone pointed out that this is where the foreign tankers offload, Google and Terraserve maps you can see that the area is very low-lying.  One of the big concerns is that there will be sub-sea landslides or other ground movement that might affect the LOOP.  Were this to be disrupted, then foreign tankers would need to be diverted elsewhere, with the likely port being Houston.

Here is a really good link/map (from "Rod and Reel" no less) of the LA southern coastline showing all of the Submersible and Floater Gulf rigs.

We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we'd like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.

Also, here's the EIA's Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here's a link to the national page.

Here's another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)

Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here's a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

Here's a link to Rigzone's coverage of Gustav.

You want a detailed map? Well here's the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)

Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co was kind enough to send us this map. The map below captures only deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html

(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread...we have updated the resources part of this post with new maps and some more old maps and articles from Katrina on the LOOP and Port Fourchon--important parts of the infrastructure, as we learned about three years ago. Please leave personal anecdotes and themes unrelated to hurricane for the other upcoming 'bigger picture' posts, as yesterdays information was difficult to upload for those on dial-up)