I saw the program but I don't remember them mentioning the Ross Ice Shelf slipping off within 10 years. They did show satellite photos of, I believe it was the Larsen Ice Shelf, breaking up. The program was very good. You can watch it today, or any other day, here:

NOVA Extreme Ice

Ron P.

Unless an ice shelf is supported by the sea floor, it has already displaced all the sea water it will occupy when melted.

I've mentioned this before, but I think it would make a real cool (excuse the pun) plot for a sci-fi/disaster film: massive ice sheet breaks free, floats to various places around the world causing all sorts of havoc.

Melting glaciers force Italy, Swiss to redraw border

Melting glaciers in the Alps may prompt Italy and Switzerland to redraw their borders near the Matterhorn, according to parliamentary draft legislation being readied in Rome.

"This draft law is born out the necessity to revise and verify the frontiers given the changes in climate and atmosphere," Narducci said. "The 1941 convention between Italy and Switzerland established as criteria [for border revisions] the ridge [crest] of the glaciers. Following the withdrawal of the glaciers in the Alps, a new criterion has been proposed so that the new border coincides with the rock."

I look forward to the day when the Antarctic Treaty System breaks down and we're negotiating for whats under the ice...

Physicist Freeman Dyson on Climate Change:
The Civil Heretic

I have tremendous respect for Freeman Dyson (after reading his book 'Infinite in All Directions', based on a series of lectures, years ago). But was surprised by his position on global warming when I heard about it a couple of years back. He does like to play the contrarian, but he's also a powerful thinker who normally sees 'the big picture' better than most others.

Science is not a matter of opinion; it is a question of data. Climate change is an issue for which Dyson is asking for more evidence, and leading climate scientists are replying by saying if we wait for sufficient proof to satisfy you, it may be too late. That is the position of a more moderate expert on climate change, William Chameides, dean of the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at Duke University, who says, “I don’t think it’s time to panic,” but contends that, because of global warming, “more sea-level rise is inevitable and will displace millions; melting high-altitude glaciers will threaten the food supplies for perhaps a billion or more; and ocean acidification could undermine the food supply of another billion or so.” Dyson strongly disagrees with each of these points, and there follows, as you move back and forth between the two positions, claims and counterclaims, a dense thicket of mitigating scientific indicators that all have the timbre of truth and the ring of potential plausibility. One of Dyson’s more significant surmises is that a warming climate could be forestalling a new ice age. Is he wrong? No one can say for sure. Beyond the specific points of factual dispute, Dyson has said that it all boils down to “a deeper disagreement about values” between those who think “nature knows best” and that “any gross human disruption of the natural environment is evil,” and “humanists,” like himself, who contend that protecting the existing biosphere is not as important as fighting more repugnant evils like war, poverty and unemployment.

I do agree with him that the public and scientific conflict has taken on political and 'religious' aspects - I would guess that fewer than one person in a hundred, or maybe in a thousand, really has such a broad and deep command of the technical and mathematical intricacies (plus the time to study it to the necessary depth) that they can convincingly (to other scientists) argue and demonstrate the merits of one side or the other.

So most people decide - somewhat arbitrarily - to sit on one side of the fence or the other, not based on complete and detailed understanding of the technical debate, but based on other factors - the 'consensus' of science, their opinion of Al Gore, etc. It becomes a matter of belief more than of science, which is not a good foundation for a society to make such crucial decisions. But - until the science and the models get better - it's all we've got.

Dick Lawrence

Following is the slide that I presented for Russia at ASPO-USA in 2007, showing Khebab's mathematical models for production & consumption. The initial projected 10 year rates of change in production and consumption are shown:

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/image013.png

The projected production decline (from mature basins) was -5.1%/year plus or minus 2%.

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/01/quantitative-assessment-of-futur...

It looks like, in the first half of 2013, we will have a glut in the market (see that little uptick in the chart).

As the oil price climbs, and more of the market starts to play energy commodities, will natural gas get relinked to oil price trends? Or, will natural gas price stay low, like the talking heads are saying through 2011?

IMHO, we are seeing re-linking already. The April nat gas contract is up over $0.35 over the last several days, with the same glut the talking heads are describing and insufficient weather to drive the demand picture. With storage as full as it is, you would expect the April contract to get pounded down regardless of oil. Why the rally?

eastex -- a simple view from where I sit: on the supply side the increased rig activity (and subsequent increase in NG supply) was driven by the unconventional NG plays and, to a lesser extent, Deep Water GOM (Independence Hub) coming online. With the exception of the Haynesville Shale most operators are running away from UNG as fast as possible. This would obviously argue decreases in supply. But as I mentioned a while ago, my rough model doesn’t predict a cliff. More of plateau with a modest decreasing slope for the next several years. But the big wild card IMO on the supply side is the potential for significant LNG imports. Lots of stories about big capacity increases in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere. Guesses for net export costs to US and EU markets range from $2 - $3.50 per mcf. If/when such deliveries are made to the US market it could keep NG prices suppressed to 2011 and well beyond. One number I haven't been able to dig up: regasification capacity in the US. Not an unimportant value should large amounts of LNG be available for import. I do know 3 major regas projects in the Gulf Coast were delayed last year by regulatory issues.

Demand side: Industrial demand has dropped significantly with the recession. Accurately predict the timing and rate of increase of the recovery and you'll have that part of the equation. Way beyond my crystal ball capabilities though.

Bottom line IMO: Given the inability to predict economic recovery and the import volumes of LNG I think forecasting NG prices over the long term (4 to 8 years) is nearly impossible. In the short term (2 - 4 years) prices look soft.

The clickable unemployment map on the right sidebar: the craters left by UK econ-decline looks much worse than the craters left by German Luftwaffe bombs and V2s from WWII.

Great overview of the Eurasia playing field!!

But meanwhile, as you bemoan his unwillingness to tell the American people that they cannot 'Grow', however one chooses to understand the implications of that word, he is directly, IN YOUR QUOTE, proposing investments in exactly what we have been hoping the Nation would embrace.

Sure, it matters that the kind of Growth goalposts that so many in the Halls of Power and in the society at large are looking towards is a future that may not be physically possible.. But the waypoints of developing Energy Answers, reinvigorating Science (where the 'bad news' will likely be emerging from, not from city hall) and education are on a path heading towards both our goal and theirs, I would argue.

It's always easiest pointing out 'What's wrong with this picture..' , but if you accept that we're now left looking for a few shiny BB's in the dungheaps around us, it might be essential to simply identify 'What's RIGHT with this picture?" .. and then help to get as many of those BB's collected and used as possible.

Yes, His (and their) Blindspots are easy to recognize.. but don't toss the BBs out with the bathwater.

O can continue the fiction or forget a second term. It is beyond hope that we can expect a zero growth paradigm from any politician, much less a President. We can only hope that he chooses policy that mitigate somewhat the coming disaster.

As we know, a triage system puts patients in three groups: those who will probably die no matter what, those who will probably survive even without prompt medical care and those who will survive with prompt medical care.

I expect to see more and more discussions about abandoning areas that are no longer economically viable. Of course, Flint is not a suburban issue per se, but I think that it is a casualty of the run up in oil prices. Compare GM stock from 1998 to 2008 versus oil prices from 1998 to 2008.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/19420
Net Oil Exports Revisited (8/06)

A Proposed Triage Plan

I believe that vast expanses of American Suburbia are going to become virtually abandoned in the years ahead. Alan Drake has noted that a good deal of suburbia was so poorly constructed that a lot of it is biodegradable. Alan has outlined how we can go back to what we used to have: electric trolley cars connected to electric light rail lines. . .

I propose a sort of triage operation: "tiny" homes and multifamily housing along electric mass transit lines. In my opinion, it is the only way that we can preserve some semblance of a civilized society. The suburbs are, by and large, a lost cause.

I had wondered how the re-urbanizaton and collapse of suburbia foreseen by Alan and others would work in practice. It seems that we now have a model:

1) Flight - those who can leave or relocate, do
2) Value collapse - houses worth little, ofteen zero or less.
3) Looting and vandalism - leaving houses non-functional and unsafe
4) Empty house demolition
5) Neighborhood service/infrastructure abandonment
6) Entire neighborhood demolition
7) Land re-use?

The rest of the steps don't seem too mis-aligned with the Flint example or Orlov's decay, but the notion of future reuse is perhaps optimistic. In an era of shifting resource bases and vibrant businesses a future re-growth might happen. Assuming that jobs are key to determining which areas survive, and that jobs will continue to decrease, it is hard to envision any significant reuse of the land. It'll be like the aftermath of a bad tornado or the purchased/condemned areas near growing airports -- the houses are gone but little squares and streets remain, overgrown by weeds, for decades.

I don't think Flint's demise is necessarily due to the long-term model -- it's just dying along with an industry. In five years, with a devalued dollar, add'l US manufacturing could be needed again, and if so, maybe Flint will recover somewhat. Or not.

That will put Flint in line BEHIND Youngstown, OH which has a shrinking city plan in place already.

http://americancity.org/magazine/article/can-they-save-youngstown/

I don't have money for the big lottery ticket, but I already have the scratch-off ticket (I live in it!).

As Greenspan said as the dot com crash was in progress, "They are gaming the system !!!"

And the same thing is happening again:

What's worse is how the banks are marking this stuff at present.

If this (data table in link below) is real then these banks and other institutions are living in an absolute dreamworld.

There is absolutely no chance that Construction loans, for example, can reasonably be carried at 100 cents or even at 97, as is being done virtually everywhere.

Hell, even Bank America is only discounting by a nickel. Wells Fargo thinks they're going to get 87 cents held to maturity and Key 98?

IMHO they're nuts and from my point of view not only should the executives be in jail but the auditors should be too.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

This is the EU President's take on the new plan:

EU president: U.S. economic plan a 'way to hell'

The huge financial injections into the economy are a repetition of mistakes from the Depression era of the 1930s, Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, the official Czech news agency reported.

He said "panic" surged in the European Union because of some of the U.S. measures, the news agency reported.

Topolanek said he was "quite alarmed" at Geithner's plan.

"He talks about a large stimulus campaign by Americans," Topolanek said. "All of these steps, their combination and their permanency, is a way to hell."

Leanan is still out; she's the one who always posts it. What you have to do now is reply to your own post and quote what was expected ;-)

There will be more numbers out at 1:00 that will be a little easier to look at.

US inventories are clearly rising. I think the Cushing inventories have more to do with the difference in price between WTI and other types of crude. Also, with less contango now, perhaps less desire to buy and hold for the future.

The weekly data on consumption is hard to interpret, because historically the data has been so inaccurate. It shouldn't be too bad on gasoline use, but may be flakey for other products. For gasoline, it says that use is actually up a little from last year, for the four weeks ended March 20, 2009.

Gasoline use last year: 8,996
Gasoline use this year: 9,058
Percentage Change: +0.7%

Products other than gasoline - Last year: 10,752
Products other than gasoline - This year: 10,054
Percentage Change: -6.5%

These are some graphics from this weeks TWIP.

Crude oil stocks are clearly at a very high level. There is not much of a discontinuity between weekly and monthly data, so one can expect the weekly are reasonable estimates of the actual amounts.

Refinery inputs continue at a level below the expected level, although perhaps they are edging up a bit. Again, not much discontinuity between weekly and monthly data, so we can probably believe the weekly numbers.

Gasoline demand is edging up. There is a small gap between weekly and monthly, with weekly higher. If we assume this gap persists, actual demand is probably at or below last year's.

This is one where the weekly data is almost not helpful. There is a huge gap between the weekly and the monthly, with the weekly 400,000 bpd higher than monthly--more than a 10% difference on 3,800,000 barrels per day use. This kind of gap seemed to prevail all of last year, so my first guess is that the weekly is still very much overstated, and actual use is down even more than indicated, perhaps to as low as 3,400,000 bpd. But it is possible that they finally got their act together, and the estimates are now properly recognizing exports, in which case the 3,800,000 bpd shown most recently might be right.

I'm agnostic about the supernatural and operate as a functional atheist, so what I'm about to say has nothing to do with religiosity. I have three living children and one grandchild. My wife and I lost one child as an infant. I wish we had more children & grandchildren. Were my wife not an insulin dependent diabetic, we would have had more. Children & grandchildren represent one's Darwinian fitness but perhaps more importantly to immediate concerns, in the post-PO economically depressed near future it will be groups of individuals who share genes that control resources and exercise influence in the local community. Call these groups "clans" or "gangs" as you will. For all the talk about the need for "community" one simply can't trust unrelated people in times of acute stress. It will be groups of brothers, uncles, & first cousins that cooperate in food production & mutual defense. Perhaps also in raiding & banditry. This is the way it's always been. This said, the necessity for massive immediate human population reduction is paramount. All of you socially responsible people who choose to have no or few children have my appreciation. But if I can help it it will be my genes in future generations struggling for survival, however futile such struggle may be. Descendants may be doomed but if they never exist in the first place they don't even get the chance to make the struggle. Does such a position make me a hypocrite? Do I care?

God may well bless them with your assets.

Jon Stewart was on it last week,

He said that after admonishing Africans that Condoms would cause more AIDS, Pope Delirious also helpfully offered that Smoking Cures Cancer, and that a nice pick-me-up in the morning is Heroin.

I wonder if we're going to get a Vatican 3.0?

part of the quiverfull movement is to drown out by sheer number of population non-quiverfull evangelical Christian people in the government.

I am of the opinion that this little blue marble is better served by having as many empty quivers as possible when we start the machete' moshpits. This is the best way to reduce the scale, duration, and frequency of the conflicts ahead for Optimal Overshoot Decline.

The genetic assertion of Hans Selye's General Adaption Syndrome [GAS] can mindlessly propel us into greater eco-devastation and magnify the Undershoot phase of the Overshoot process, thus senselessly pushing us closer to possible extinction. Our capacity for violence vastly exceeds our ability to culturally adapt/evolve during extreme planetary and human stress. My feeble two cents as I am not an expert on Darwinian forces.

I have read "The Big Takeover". I highly recommend it also.

Exactly. After I scoop the ashes from the fireplace insert, I screen them to remove any charcoal which I then return to the fire. Charcoal is too valuable to bury. I may as well bury unburnt wood as bury charcoal.

there is no chance that charcoal would be "buried".

Sure there is - if you can show that there is some benefit.

It would cost a lot of money (and energy), and why bury some carbon while we mine other carbon to burn?

1) To change the Ph - charing pine needles as an example.
2) To reduce the transportation cost - water is expensive to ship and compost has water weight. Char doesn't have the water weight.
3) A physical change. Ever tried to break a cow leg? How about a charred leg?
4) To 'de-contaminate' - burning infected tomato plants means the virus has no reasonable chance of being passed on. If you charred Mercury ladened plants, you reduce the Mercury in the remains (but pass the problem to someone else)

And the big one:

The act of adding BioChar to the soil somehow improves it. Thus far, there are many people who want to believe it does, and you can see visible growth changes when active charcoal is soaked in Ammonia-like compounds and added to the soil. The dark soils in the Amazon also have charred bits - but Mrs. Ighram thinks that charing is possible in a hot compost pile.

Don't hold your breath.

If the benefits of char can be proven - the breathing will continue.

All of that may be true and yet it still won't justify the business model or the pay scales. Many people have endured years like that for much less than $100K, let alone a few million. Many people have be screwed on employment deals, too, especially when the business folds.

But we all grow to feel entitled to what we get, and to feel like we should be paid just a tad more than the guy in the next office.

The guy really should be asking himself, "Why did I stay so long, and with paychecks like that why didn't I put back a few million and go do something sane with my life"?

Screw him. They "deserve" their bonus. Total BS. He's lucky he still had a job.

The contracts they are operating under would be null and void if AIG had gone under (declared bankruptcy), which by all rights it should have. Just because the government kept them alive to avoid a collapse of the financial sector, doesn't change the fact that the corporation is no longer a viable entity. The fact that you had nothing to do with the CDS scandal is completely irrelevant. The corporation you had a contract with went bust!

And yes I realize this 165 million in bonuses is all a smoke screen covering up who the 130+ billion in government bailout funds went too.

We should have let AIG fail. The reason we didn't is because the USD (in conjunction with the Fed, the former Investment banks, the Treasury, Congress, and the Executive branch) is the largest Ponzi scheme in history. What else can you call a currency with 60+ trillion in obligations behind it? Everyone from pensioners, people on social security, govt employees, even foreign nations are locked in.

Ugh.

None of us should be cheated of our payments any more than a plumber should be cheated after he has fixed the pipes but a careless electrician causes a fire that burns down the house.

And yet, if the homeowner declares bankruptcy (surprise! he won the right to forego insurance, instead lending the freed-up capital to an ostrich-farm venture that due to events no one could foresee etc. etc.), the plumber will get stiffed fair or not. He seems to have been in a pretty good position to judge this risks of staying employed at AIG. And if it turns out he didn't have the information to judge the risks ... well join the club.

Meantime, he took $millions in cash and bonuses before subprime hit so it's hard to put him at the top of my list of worries.

This one is pretty good, too:

This Modern World: Dystopian Post-Apocalyptic Movies vs. Dystopian Post-Apocalyptic Reality

I can't imagine that this missile has a warhead, conventional or nuke.

Say it has. The bit about 'mutually assured destruction' as a deterrent would then be tested, no?

I don't think Jong Il is that stupid.

Havn't you been listening to the upsell? He's not stupid - he's a madman! Did I mention he's a madman? /snark

(He's got a good life for himself, even if he's not been seen seen for a while. Say his deathbed order is to use a nuke - the good life of the staff that passes down the order would be threatened - so why would they allow it if MAD is a viable deterrent?)

I wonder what the strategic repercussions might be if the US & Japan fire a bunch of Patriot ABMs, yet fail to bring this missile [with satellite payload?] down.

I believe you are asking the wrong question. It should be,

I wonder what the strategic repercussions might be if the US & Japan fire a bunch of Patriot ABMs and bring this missile [with satellite payload?] down.

If they try and miss, NK can stomp and scream about the attempt, then trumpet the failure as proof of the ineptitude/corruption/dissoluteness/whatever of the "West."

If they try and actually do knock it down, it raises the possibility of real armed conflict to at least that of when Clinton almost took out Yongbyon back in '94, which was narrowly averted by sending Carter, instead. I've no doubt Kim Il Sung would have countered with some serious action.

Things are different now, and I think NK knows the fragility of their situation. I don't think they want a war and I don't think they believe they can win one. BUT, all it would take would be for China to support the move and it could happen. I have no doubt China sees itself as supplanting the US. I also think they believe the US must be seriously weakened for that to ultimately happen. I expect them to abandon the dollar and Treasuries at some point. If they were ready for that, they might green light NK action. Knocking down their missile would be a perfect opportunity (though probably still a small probability as I don't think China *is* ready to deal with such a crisis at this time).

Given I currently sit less than ten miles from the NK border, I vote for no shooting of anything. NK is not going to try to drop a bomb on Japan, so let them shoot their missile. Shooting it down won't change anything, but will put a whole lot of people at real risk. I'm not a fan of NK, but am not a fan of their artillery, either. Unless US and/or Japanese forces see a true threat, patience is the order of the day.

Cheers

It is hard enough to make an atomic bomb; we still don't know for absolute certain if NK's test actually worked or fizzled. Making a bomb small enough to be boosted into near-orbit is quite a bit more difficult. As is building a missile with the throw weight to put even a small, miniaturized warhead into orbit. Then you've got to marry the two and make sure that everything works.

I have no access to any classified intel, but based upon the limited open sources I've seen I have little reason to think that NK is anywhere close to having the capability to do all of the above. Maybe some years down the line, but not yet.

I would be interested, although I am VERY busy ATM.

Can you give an executive summary ?

Thanks,

Best Hopes for 28 hour days,

Alan

Wow, rural interstate has been trending down a long time now. Much longer then I thought. Urban VMT hid it until this last year. (I guess they ran out of equity to refinance).

Thanks for the Brookings links in the other thread. Very interesting.

How much infrastructure was destroyed by Americans and not rebuilt, versus how much was rebuilt by Americans and then destroyed by Iraqi's?

Illegal or unjustified is outdated and pointless. Iraq is probably just about to realize that the US money stream is about to turn off without the oil stream turning on, and I suspect they won't like the result.

All of the "invading" nations are worried about their own finances, and will be decreasingly willing to foot bills. That's what it means to win, even if you lose -- you pick the terms.

Sucks to be poor. Sucks to be powerless.

The key here is that crude oil is not the only input.

Here's how you get to 20 mb/day (or about 19 now with demand destruction)

Crude + Natural Gas Liquids + Imports of refined product + "New supply" (biofuels) + "refinery gains".

Here's the breakdown of US product supplied. Currently running at 19,199 mb/day in December 2008 (last published monthly figure) http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm

And here's today's weekly data which literally sums it all up.

                                     Four Week

(Thousand Barrels per Day)           03/20/09 
----------------------------------------------
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (1)                  5,405
Net Imports (Incl SPR) (2)               9,149
   Gross Imports (Excl SPR)              9,178
   SPR Imports                               0
   Exports                                  29
SPR Stocks W/D or Added                   -185
Other Stocks W/D or Added                 -187
Product Supplied and Losses                  0
Unaccounted-for Crude Oil (3)               12

Crude Oil Input to Refineries           14,194

Other Supply
Natural Gas Liquids Prod. (4)            1,899
Other Liquids New Supply                   600
Crude Oil Product Supplied                   0
Processing Gain                            942 
Net Product Imports (5)                  1,631
   Gross Product Imports (5)             3,239
   Product Exports (5)                   1,608
Prod Stocks W/D or Added (6)(7)           -154

Total Prod Supplied for Domestic Use    19,112

And the historical chart

Great work! Your continued efforts to produce "Negawatts" is impressive. Amory Lovins would be proud.

E. Swanson