Drumbeat: August 7, 2009


The next big breakthrough in oil extraction?

Oil executives are fond of saying, “Tell me when technology can no longer be invented or improved, and I will tell you when the world has reached peak oil.”

The point is that as that, as long as new technologies can be invented, then there are going to be new ways to get increasing amounts of oil and natural gas out of the ground. The best example of this is in the US natural gas industry.

It was all but left for dead until a few years ago, when suddenly the US independents came up with new ways to get natural gas out of ground. The US natural gas industry took off, and estimates have grown from 30 years’ worth of supplies in the country to more than 100 years’ worth.

Indeed, Rod Lowman, president of America’s Natural Gas Alliance, says that while there are five major shale plays in the US now providing most of the natural gas, there are over 20 other shale formations that the industry believes “hold a lot of potential”.

Same goes for oil, as shown time and time again.

Peak Oil Driving Crude Prices

With better than expected unemployment numbers today, one would think that the supply and demand spread for crude oil would begin to narrow in upcoming months. After all, economic improvement means more demand for oil, right?

But while the market celebrates the jobs report this morning, crude oil prices are dropping. Oil traders do not appear to be moved by the new economic indication. That should be a clue that crude oil prices are being driven by other ideas, namely, the idea of peak oil.


Militants meet Nigeria leader after laying down guns

ABUJA (Reuters) - Members of the main militant group in Nigeria's Niger Delta met President Umaru Yar'Adua on Friday after accepting an amnesty offer but warned failure to develop the oil-producing region would lead to a resumption of violence.

Thirty-two members of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) led by the group's leader in Bayelsa state -- Ebikabowei Victor Ben, known locally as Boyloaf -- met Yar'Adua at the presidential villa in the capital Abuja.


Big Oil Sweats As Brazil Debates New Controls

HOUSTON -- Brazil, one of the most hyped new oil frontiers, is expecting a gusher of production offshore. Big Oil and other global companies have flocked, investing billions in technical plays. Newfound resources have also drawn a growing sense of national pride for Brazilians--who want to keep more of the profit at home.

The future got cloudier this week for oil companies with word the government was quietly debating increasing state control over the most promising reservoirs, which are in deep water buried under a rugged blanket of salt more than a mile thick.


Brazil, Peru May Invest $15 Billion in 5 Hydro Dams

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil and Peru are studying five hydroelectric projects that would cost as much as $15 billion, Brazilian Energy Minister Edison Lobao said.

Peru may consume 20 percent of the electricity from the dams and ship the rest to Brazil, Lobao told reporters today in Rio de Janeiro. Brazil and Peru aim to start operating the dams, which could generate 6,000 megawatts, in 2015, he said.


The Homely Costs of Energy Conservation

Snowmass, Colo. - A quarter-century ago, in the wake of America's first energy crisis, a young scientist named Amory Lovins came to the Rocky Mountains and built himself a radical house based on a radical idea. The country could save both energy and money, he believed, by combining common sense and unconventional technology.

Mr. Lovins did achieve substantial energy savings, and many of his innovations, from better insulation to multiple-pane windows to more-efficient refrigerators, eventually became familiar fixtures in American homes.

But on the second part of Mr. Lovins's ambition -- saving money -- the calculus has been more complicated. The advances that allowed him to create a roomy home with a tiny carbon footprint came with a hefty upfront cost.

Now, Mr. Lovins has completed a renovation that he hopes will demonstrate how much more energy-efficient houses can become. But the project also serves as a reminder of the still-enormous gulf between what is technologically possible and what society is able or willing to pay for.


Baker Hughes Releases July 2009 Rig Counts

Baker Hughes reported that the international rig count for July 2009 was 974, up 7 from the 967 counted in June 2009, and down 118 from the 1,092 counted in July 2008. The international offshore rig count for July 2009 was 275, up 6 from the 269 counted in June 2009 and down 37 from the 312 counted in July 2008.


Peak oil: Should I be worried?

Imagine one of those fine hotel buffets, with lots of food and places to sit, drinks to order and generally a good old time is being had by all. You’ve probably been there. Imagine the people just keep streaming into the restaurant steadily and the food just keeps being renewed, replaced, new tables get set up outside, upstairs and everything just keeps getting bigger and better. More people, more tables, more food, more eating, more waiters, more drinks.

This is how many people have experienced the world in the last century, myself included.


China top refiners to trim Aug crude runs from record

BEIJING (Reuters) - Top Chinese refineries will trim crude oil processing in August as demand fails to keep pace with production, although runs will still be near record levels seen in July after fuel price hikes boosted incentives for refiners, a Reuters poll showed.

Twelve major plants accounting for more than a third of China's capacity, most of them on the eastern and southern seaboards, will process 2.63 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in August, down marginally from 2.65 million bpd in July.

The August volume would represent around 88 percent of their total refining capacity.


Aramco in second naphtha deal

The higher premium was due to dwindling supplies in Asia caused by a lack of new European imports next month.

Traders had also been poised to divert Middle Eastern naphtha to the West early this week to capitalise on European naphtha demand for gasoline production, as the continent is short on supplies of the auto fuel due to run cuts and recent outages.

But that has so far yet to happen, as traders are not convinced that the European demand could be sustained, while freight costs have been prohibitive because trading firms are once again taking up tankers to store gas oil at sea.


Nigeria: Rising cost of diesel

The consistent rise in the cost of buying diesel oil to power electricity generating plants in businesses and homes across the country is alarming. The effect on the cost of doing business in Nigeria is particularly disturbing and needs to be urgently addressed by the government. The deplorable state of the power sector has meant that many businesses and homes which have for long relied on diesel to power their electricity generating plants are on the in despair.

While home owners can afford to abandon their generating plants and either adopt cheaper options like solar energy and converters or even abandon the generating sets, business owners have little choice in the matter as they cannot afford to simply watch their investments go to waste. The alternative of switching to gas for power also presents no succour due to the incessant disruptions to gas supply by the activities of the militants in the Niger Delta region.


Calderón announces crackdown on fuel theft during Reynosa visit

REYNOSA — Mexican President Felipe Calderón visited Reynosa on Thursday afternoon and announced an ongoing effort against criminal organizations that have stolen fuel from Pemex for years.

The president was here to mark the opening of two cryogenic plants that will increase Mexico’s gas production — reducing the country’s dependence on Texas.


Sustainable energy set for growth in Gulf region

GCC states are among the worst polluters in the world, and they are global leaders in per capita carbon dioxide emissions. Yet several states are trying to reposition themselves as leaders in green research and technology, with a specific focus on alternative energy. All of them have signed the Kyoto Protocol, and Abu Dhabi has recently outbid Germany to become the host of the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena).

The Gulf has significant potential for carbon capture and storage, but its attractiveness will depend on how the international market for emissions certificates will be structured.


Indonesia mulls cut in fossil fuel subsidies

Indonesia may cut subsidies on fossil fuels within a year in order to bolster the competitiveness of renewable energy sources, according to an environment official.

The head of Indonesia's National Council on Climate Change, Agus Purnomo, told Reuters news agency last week that the government is also considering introducing policies that would oblige national power company PLN to obtain a portion of its electricity from renewable sources.


Boom in hydropower pits fish against climate

The renewable energy could ease global warming, but the dams and turbines could result in mass killings.


Pricing Unscheduled Electricity Could Facilitate Financing of GE Turbines

India has implemented a bulk power pricing plan for unscheduled electric generation. The real time price uses a negatively sloped formula driven by system frequency. When there is a shortage of power, the physics of the electric system results in a decline in system frequency and an increase in the price for electricity. This type of pricing formula could provide a revenue stream for some of the GE turbines, a revenue stream that would support third party financing of the GE turbines.


India pays couples to put off having children

Thousands of couples in India who agreed to put off having babies for at least two years after their wedding will collect cash payments this month as health officials attempt to curb the country's rapidly growing population.

While neighbouring China shows the first signs of relaxing its strict policy of one child per couple in the face of an ageing population, India is searching for a way of restricting the size of families as the battle over scarce resources grows.


Iowa Enviromental Council: Richard Heinberg to speak at IEC

The world is changing before our eyes—dramatically, inevitably, and some say irreversibly. With the rapid decline, depletion and despoiling of the earth’s natural resources and climate instability, we are all being urgently called to change the way we live. There is good news to be conveyed: a sustainable society is still possible. Join us at our annual conference to hear how people around the world can and are responding to current and impending environmental and economic changes with compassion and intelligence, in a way that minimizes human suffering over the short term and, over the long term, enables future generations to develop sustainable, materially modest societies that affirm the highest and best qualities of human nature.

Richard Heinberg, from Santa Rosa, CA, has been writing about energy resource issues and the dynamics of cultural change for many years. A member of the core faculty at New College of California in Santa Rosa, he is an award-winning author of nine books including, Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World, and The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies.


'Eco-Therapy' for Environmental Depression

A new and growing group of psychologists believes that many of our modern-day mental problems, including depression, stress and anxiety, can be traced in part to society's increasing alienation from nature. The solution? Get outside and enjoy it.


Rule issued to police oil price manipulation

NEW YORK - The Federal Trade Commission said Thursday it would begin policing the petroleum industry with new penalties for anyone attempting to manipulate energy prices.

The rule, which will go into effect in November, targets anyone dealing with crude oil, gasoline and petroleum distillates. It prohibits market distortions through false or misleading statements about stockpiles, prices or crude and fuel output.

As part of its new powers, the FTC will monitor reports from petroleum refiners on the amount of gas held in storage by refiners. Those figures, which are collected and published by the Department of Energy each week, can push prices up or down.

See also: FTC Issues Rule to Block Manipulation of Oil Market


Oil Rises to 5-Week High After U.S. Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Drops

Crude oil for September delivery gained 0.6 percent to $72.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


Crude Oil May Climb to $95 in Early 2010: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may reach $95 a barrel by early next year after rising to a seven-week high this week, according to technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson.

Oil is set to reach $83 a barrel, which corresponds with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the range generated by the September contract’s high of $145.96 on July 14, 2008, and the low of $44.28 touched on Feb. 18. The next target of $95 would be a 50 percent retracement.


Oil, Copper May Jump, Deutsche Bank’s Grenfell Says

(Bloomberg) -- Commodities from oil to copper are poised to climb as government spending worldwide spurs a recovery in demand and companies curtail investment in mines and rigs, said Deutsche Bank AG’s Simon Grenfell.

“We’re building up to have a really strong price move” over the next two years, Grenfell, head of Asian commodities for Germany’s biggest lender, said in an interview yesterday in Singapore. The risk of a “super-spike” has increased, he said, expressing his own opinion.


Heavy Crude Price Discount to Widen, Bernstein Says

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia may boost heavy crude oil output over the next 12 months as global demand recovers, widening the price difference between more expensive, light crudes and cheaper, heavy grades, Sanford C. Bernstein said.

Increased “swing production” from Saudi Arabia is expected to meet rising demand as non-OPEC output declines, Bernstein Research analysts, Neil McMahon and Alexander Inkster, said in a report today.

“Towards the end of this year and into next year, as oil demand recovers and non-OPEC production declines, Saudi Arabia, as the main global swing producer, should have to increase production of heavy crudes which would also support wider differentials and reduce OPEC spare capacity,” McMahon said.


Saras Quarterly Profit Falls 77% on Lower Fuel Demand

(Bloomberg) -- Saras SpA, owner of the Mediterranean region’s biggest oil refinery, posted a 77 percent drop in second-quarter profit and said processing margins will remain “challenging” for the rest of the year.


Are we about to hit Peak Oil?

Is oil the only thing that's running out?

Far from it. The recession may have bought us some time as global growth slows. However, says Jeremy Grantham of US fund manager GMO, beyond our debt problems "lurks another longer-term and more important factor affecting future growth – the increasing limitations on resources. We're simply running out of everything at a dangerous rate".

The planet's metal supply is fast depleting, and the quality of what's left is lower: "where 30 tons of copper ore once produced a ton of copper, it now takes 500 tons". Even water's running out.

As the planet's population soars, says Grantham, "we must prepare ourselves for waves of higher resource prices and shortages unlike anything we've faced outside wartime".


Warning: Oil Supplies Are Running Out Fast

The monetary elite has every reason to develop and sustain the meme that oil is running out. The wealth to be garnered by controlling such a basic substance is phenomenal. The perception that such a substance is rare and getting rarer only adds to its value.

Yet there is plenty of oil in the world, we have come to believe. We think, in fact, it may be abiotic - a naturally reoccurring substance (why else the reports of oil fields filling back up?). In any event our suspicions are based on a variety of factors. Here's another: Those involved in the production of oil, and its analysis, have gone out of their way to label it a "fossil fuel."


Doug Casey on Energy, Optimism, and Opportunity

You have to keep in mind that oil is just a hydrocarbon. What does that mean? It means that it’s a compound made of hydrogen and carbon. Carbon is very common on the surface of the earth, there’s plenty of oxygen in the atmosphere, and hydrogen is the most common thing in the universe – with the possible exception of stupidity. There are lots of hydrocarbons in the world – plants, including algae, contain them. Transforming hydrocarbons into useful fuel is simply a matter of applied technology.


Radio host and author Thom Hartmann talks about Threshold

Thom Hartmann, a former Air America radio host, currently hosts The Thom Hartmann Program, which claims to have more listeners than any other progressive talk show in the nation. Hartmann's book, The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight, inspired Leonardo DiCaprio's movie The 11th Hour. I talked to Hartmann about his most recent book, Threshold: The Crisis of Western Culture (Viking, $22.95).


Peak Oil: Another Leftist Plot?

I have come late to the climate change game, but the more I learn about the interlinking of issues the more interesting and ominous things look. Population is a case in point. Another is peak oil.


Peak coal: Coming to Appalachia sooner than you think?

Peak coal is an important topic for coalfield communities, and one that we’ve covered many times on this blog. See previous posts here, here, here, and here.

For years, one of the major problems with coal policy has been the lack of reliable estimates for how much coal there is left that is mineable. Coal industry backers like to say there are hundreds of years of coal left. But the National Research Council warned a few years ago that there was not reliable information available to support such conclusions.


Natural Gas Stocks: Opportunity or Pitfall?

Resource doomsayers were touting peak gas and peak oil theories, saying that production levels for these commodities had already reached their peaks and were in a steady decline towards an ultimate depletion of these vital resources. As it turned out, production levels had not peaked but rather grew, once again pointing out that production rates reflect economic decisions rather than simple depletion curves.

Now we are in the midst of a worldwide economic recession, and natural gas prices have crashed to less than half of their peak levels. Reflecting the collapse in commodity prices, share prices of gas companies have suffered a similar decline. A near-term recovery seems highly unlikely, but do the low share prices signal a buying opportunity, or warn of continued market weakness?


B.C. and Alberta in a natural gas poker game

CALGARY -- British Columbia fired the latest round Thursday in the North American battle to woo natural gas producers, unveiling miniscule royalty rates and millions of dollars in fresh infrastructure incentives in a move that may force neighbouring Alberta to respond to in kind.

In an effort to prod natural gas production in its Montney and Horn River shale plays, B.C. reduced the royalty rate on wells drilled between September and June 2010 to 2% for one year. Producers now pay an average royalty rate of about 20%.


Crude Oil May Decline on Ample U.S. Stockpiles, Survey Shows

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures may fall on speculation that U.S. fuel inventories will be sufficient to meet demand that’s been cut by the recession.

Twenty-one of 36 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 58 percent, said futures will decline through Aug. 14. Eight respondents, or 22 percent, forecast that the market will rise and seven said prices will be little changed. Last week, 69 percent of analysts said oil would fall.


Senate OKs expansion of cash-for-clunkers program

The Senate bolstered the popular cash-for-clunkers program Thursday by giving it an extra $2 billion in hopes of extending a wave of trade-in deals that buoyed car sales and boosted demand for fuel-efficient vehicles in July.

The vote was 60 to 37.

But some skeptics say the additional money won't have the same impact as the first $1 billion, because many people who qualified for the program already have bought new cars and the supply of eligible vehicles is waning.


Diesel’s time has come, but is anybody ready?

SAN FRANCISCO — It may be cheaper, more efficient and cleaner than in years past, but diesel still seems to be a dirty word to the typical American.

Hybrids rule the alternative powertrain arena, led by the Toyota Prius. And electric vehicles are starting to pop up on the industry radar, with sexy cars like the Tesla Roadster and the upcoming Chevy Volt stealing headlines.

But diesels, despite an intriguing crop of new choices, are only just beginning to show signs of life. Why? Well, from a U.S. consumer perspective, it doesn’t make much business sense, according to some top industry executives. Count Bob Lutz, General Motors Co.’s outspoken design czar, among diesel’s detractors.


Will Health Care Slip on Oil?

America's way of providing medical care has an Achilles' heel — not in the operating room or the pharmacy, but at the oil well and the refinery.


No one ever went to war over a windmill

Malcolm Wicks, Gordon Brown’s special representative for energy security, gently reminded the Government his week that the UK needs to think more strategically about how to ensure that the lights don’t go out. Among his recommendations was a new department sitting between the Foreign Office and the Department for Environment and Climate Change with a specific remit of safeguarding the energy security of the UK.

Most other big nations, he pointed out, have a state-run energy authority. The age of letting the market sort out our supply of vital resources like oil and gas is over: the state needs to encourage energy and utility companies to store more gas offshore for the UK only, lock in more long-term contracts and think about increasing our dependence on nuclear.


Greens agree with BCUC assessment

The BC Green Party agrees with the BC Utilities Commission (BCUC) in their assessment that the public interest is not served by the current method of stimulating green power projects in BC, says Green Party Leader Jane Sterk.

She said the party supports the BCUC opinion that BC Hydro has not adequately determined the contribution conservation can make to projected increases in demand.


Energy underlies all the hot issues

People argue about climate change, about peak oil, biofuels, carbon footprints, about, well, almost everything. But at the core seems to be energy — its generation, transmission and use.

The grandest house in the grandest suburb in the country isn’t worth much without energy to heat it or cool it. The grandest car ever made is only a curiosity without the energy needed to operate it.

So many of the things we hear or read about have energy as a subtext.

It’s energy that’s behind a lot of the fuss about the warming Arctic — easier access to the oil and gas we believe to be buried there, and who might own it.


Wind Promises Blackouts as Obama Strains Grid With Renewables

(Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s push for wind and solar energy to wean the U.S. from foreign oil carries a hidden cost: overburdening the nation’s electrical grid and increasing the threat of blackouts.

The funding Obama devoted to get high-voltage lines ready for handling the additional load of alternative supplies is less than 5 percent of the $130 billion that power users, producers and the U.S. Energy Department say is needed.

Without more investment, cities can’t tap much of the renewable energy from remote areas, said Jon Wellinghoff, chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. He serves as the administration’s top official on grid issues and recognizes the dilemma it faces.


Oil-rich Brunei to have solar power plant

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN (AFP) – Brunei, one of the world's top oil and gas producers, is venturing into alternative energy with the construction of Southeast Asia's largest solar power plant, officials said Thursday.

The plant will supply 1.2 megawatts of electricity to the national grid, the equivalent of powering about 400 homes, according to Japan's Mitsubishi Corporation which is fully funding the project.


NASA Steps Closer to Nuclear Power for Moon Base

NASA has made a series of critical strides in developing new nuclear reactors the size of a trash can that could power a human outpost on the moon or Mars.


China nuclear chief in graft probe: report

BEIJING (AFP) – China's top nuclear power official is being investigated for allegedly squandering public funds and accepting bribes valued at up to 1.8 billion yuan (260 million dollars), state press said Friday.

Authorities are probing the possibility that Kang Rixin took bribes from French nuclear power giant Areva to win a contract for a nuclear power project in southern China's Guangdong province, the Chongqing Times reported.


Unelected Colo. Democrat a Wild Card on Energy, Climate Issues

Bennet, a Colorado Democrat appointed to his seat in January when Ken Salazar vacated it to become Interior secretary, has said he hopes to support a climate bill. He offers in an interview that some of his priorities include "a greater focus on renewables, like wind and sun," as well as incentives for natural gas.

Bennet does not list specifics, however, about what help he would want for those industries, whether legislation should include protections for coal, or how he would want to protect consumers from rising prices. His answers can be interpreted in any number of ways. And because he came to the Senate without serving in any legislative office, he lacks any voting record that could offer clues.

That makes him a key target of industry lobbyists, environmental groups and Democratic leaders who will need every vote to pass climate legislation.


Copenhagen May Help Set Warming Cap, Munich Re Says

(Bloomberg) -- Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurer, is more convinced than ever that the Copenhagen climate-change summit in December will successfully set the course for capping the most harmful effects of global warming.

“If China, India and the U.S. stand by their commitments, I’m really optimistic,” Peter Hoeppe, chief scientist at the Munich-based reinsurer, said in an interview. “The 2-degree goal includes all the actions that need to be taken.”


Ships Spraying Sea Water May Offer Climate Quick Fix

(Bloomberg) -- A fleet of sail-powered, ocean-going vessels spraying sea water in the air could save billions of dollars and allow the world to continue emitting carbon dioxide like it does by burning oil and coal.

Marine cloud whitening, which allows solar radiation to bounce off water vapor, at $9 billion would be more cost- effective than reducing CO2 emissions, according to a study by the think tank headed by Bjoern Lomborg, a professor at the Copenhagen Business School.


Plan urged to save national parks from global warming effects

The federal government must take decisive action to avoid "a potentially catastrophic loss of animal and plant life" in national parks, according to a new report that details the effects of global warming on the nation's most treasured public lands.


Glacier melt accelerating, federal report concludes

The federal government Thursday released the most comprehensive study of melting glaciers in North America -- and the results show a rapid and accelerating shrinkage over the last half a century because of global warming.

One of the glaciers in the study, the South Cascade Glacier in Washington state, has lost nearly half of its volume and a quarter of its mass since 1958, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey said. The two others in the study, the Wolverine and Gulkana glaciers in Alaska, have both lost nearly 15% of their mass.

Concerning a sea cloud machine.

I watch a one hour special on the idea. At least 3 major hurdles exists:

1) The spray of sea water does not create the right size particles of salt. (As of the show)

2) No full scale protyptes have been built.

3) No one has model the impact of the sea spray on a regional level. I.E. Where would the ships need to be to prevent major climate problems elsewhere.

These issue may be easily solvable, but no one yet has done the work.

Unfortunately, the cloud ship plan doesn't help with ocean acidification, so at best it only solves half the problem.

From the 'warning' article above:

We think, in fact, it may be abiotic - a naturally reoccurring substance (why else the reports of oil fields filling back up?).

????????????

There have been reports of oil fields "filling back up," but oil draining in from elsewhere is a more likely explanation that abiotic oil.

oil draining in from elsewhere is a more likely explanation than abiotic oil.

Yes Leanan, I have to agree with that. Are there examples (by name) of fields filling back up or are it just unproven (Russian) stories ?

Eugene Island was one example of an oil field filling back up.

Eugene Island is the only example of refilling and that is only a trickle. Oil is seeping up from the source rock below but at a very slow rate. This is not really surprising. What is slightly surprising is that there are no more such examples.

Ron P.

Just so you don't get the wrong idea about me, I do not believe oil is abiotic.

I have read a lot about Eugene and know it is not an example of abiotic oil. I just assumed that everyone here already knows this.

IIRC Eugene got a small temporary boost from an adjacent field that had not been drilled.

Eugene Island is the only example of refilling and that is only a trickle. Oil is seeping up from the source rock below but at a very slow rate. This is not really surprising.

So visible refilling. Not concluded because of risen flow rates.

What is slightly surprising is that there are no more such examples.

Very surprising.

Eugene Island is the Kenyan Birth Certificate of oil fields.

Rembrandt profiled Eugene Island and also Wilmington and Ekofisk in A Primer on Reserve Growth - part 2 of 3. The former had oil migrate through interconnected faults to boost the volume in one section of the field - Deffeyes also wrote about this, his testimony was part of a Congressional inquiry. The latter two fields gained a boost through subsidation of the rock itself. Claiming any of these as evidence of abiotic oil formation is nonsense, treat those who do as nonsensical. Although that would be an improvement over Corsi's statement about the impossibility of dinosaurs tromping around on the bottom of the ocean.

Water wells fill back up also. Wells have what is called a radius of influence, which is the limit at which they lower the water table.

http://www.epa.state.il.us/water/groundwater/maximum-setback-zones/coned...

Once pumping stops, water generally moves back in to that cone of depression, the same way oil could. Until, of course, there is no more oil to pump-but generally there is always more oil to pump, from what I've learned about oil fields-I think recovering even 50% is a pipe dream in most cases. Let it rest for a while, and you may find the bottom of your well is once again sitting in a pool of oil.

Edit: Of course, there are some differences in the way water and oil act, and I imagine the geology of where you would find them as well.

Let it rest for a while, and you may find the bottom of your well is once again sitting in a pool of oil.

Could be that the deeper oil is more 'heavy oil'. Not only with much less energy content but also more difficult to rise.

Could be that the deeper oil is more 'heavy oil'. Not only with much less energy content but also more difficult to rise.

Heavy Oil Energy Content

True Heavy Crude Oil requires more complex refining. But if you burn Heavy Crude oil you get more BTU per Barrel than light crude oil. Remember the light crude weighs less per barrel, so if you calculate in terms of BTU/lb mass you get different answers. More carbon burned >>> more energy released.

No, heavy oil does not have less energy content.

Your second speculation, "heavy oil rises slower", well I am not really qualified to answer that but somehow I don't think that light oil reservoirs will eventually refill with heavy oil as the light stuff is pumped out. So far when the light oil is pumped out it is replaced with water. And I suspect that will continue to be the case.

Ron P.

This is just a guess but I suspect that if the light oil has a higher hydrogen content than the heavy oil it will produce more btus when burned.

JJ, that is not what it is about at all. Light crude simply has a higher percentage of the shorter carbon chains and likewise heavy crude has a higher percentage of the longer carbon chains. That makes the light stuff much easier to refine and it has a higher percentage of stuff like gasoline.

But you are right the energy content in shorter strings is slightly greater because of the higher hydrogen to carbon ratio. However I was not aware of that fact, the energy content part, until I looked it up just now.

Gasoline

The main reason for the lower energy content (per litre) of LPG in comparison to gasoline is that it has a lower density. Energy content per kilogram is higher than for gasoline (higher hydrogen to carbon ratio). The weight-density of gasoline is about 740 kg/m³ (6.175 lb/US gal; 7.416 lb/imp gal).

Ron P.

Heavy oil Wikipedia information:

Heavy crude oil has been defined as any liquid petroleum with an API gravity less than 20°,[1] meaning that its specific gravity is greater than 0.933. This mostly results from crude oil getting degraded by being exposed to bacteria, water or air resulting in the loss of its lighter fractions while leaving behind its heavier fractions.

Heavy crude refining techniques may require more energy input, though, so its environmental impact is presently much more significant than that of lighter crude.

With present technology, the extraction and refining of heavy oils and tar sands generates as much as three times the total CO2 emissions compared to conventional oil[6], primarily driven by the extra energy consumption of the extraction process (which may include burning natural gas to heat and pressurize the reservoir to stimulate flow). Current research in to better production methods seek to reduce this environmental impact.

The net-energy content of heavy oil is less than light oil.
There is doubt if 2005-2008 was peak-oil plateau, but it is almost 100% certain that peak net-energy was in those years.

www.eppo.go.th contains the Oil industry unit conversions:

CALORIFIC VALUE OF FULES
Rough gross values in Btu per lb
-------------------------------------
Crude oils 18,300-19,500
Gasolines 20,500
Kerosines 19,800
Benzole 18,100
Ethyl alcohol 11,600
Gas oils 19,200
Fuel oils (bunker) 18,300
Coal (bituminous) 10,200-14,600
LNG 22,300
LPG (butane) 21,300
-------------------------------------

I thought the terms 'light' and 'heavy' referred to viscosity and not specific density. Light oil flows easily like gasoline and heavy oil flows slowly like axle grease.

light and heavy refer to density. a barrel of 20 deg api oil would weigh 327 lbs, a barrel of 40 deg api oil would weigh 289 lbs. so the heavier oil would contain more btu's of energy, despite the h-c ratio.

there can be a large variation in composition for any (api gravity)oil.

a heavier oil is also more viscous than a lighter oil. the viscosity of both are temperature dependent.

No, heavy oil does not have less energy content.

Ron, that was my conclusion because I read that heavy oil is of lesser quality and that 'light crude' gives the most gallons of gasoline and kerosene per barrel of oil. But I realise that 'heavy oil' will be refined into more diesel/barrel.

Of course, there are some differences in the way water and oil act, and I imagine the geology of where you would find them as well.

Some differences??? Well yes, water falls from the sky, oil does not. Oil reservoirs contained trapped oil that seeped up from source rock that was buried many millions of years ago. Water found in the ground fell from the sky just in the last few years, and in the deeper aquifers in the last few hundred years.

There are fossil aquifers buried much deeper than normal reservoirs. These aquifers were buried millions of years ago as the ground, containing the water, was buried by many layers of sediment over the years. These aquifers, like oil reservoirs, do not refill.

Another point. The water, (not the injected water), in oil reservoirs is fossil water. It is also trapped, like the oil, by the cap rock. Oil being lighter than water seeps up and replaces the water, pushing the water back down and it rises back up as the oil is pumped out.

Ron P.

Hydraulically, I meant. The liquids would (as far as I know) act differently underground, under pressure, and as you mentioned, they have different weights.

""Well yes, water falls from the sky, oil does not.""

No Sh$t Sherlock...but tell that to the MERKINS hell bent to burn every last drop. Leave it in the ground and you will not need the ships floating around spraying water, in an insane attempt to cool the Planet?? We're Doomed.

Yes, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus.

Hey what does MERKINS have to do with this topic? Do you may mean Amerikins? Do you know what a merkin is?

Yes, Virginia may wear a merkin if the temperature gets too hot ;-)

OED Definition: "merkin (first use 1617)[1] is a pubic wig, originally worn by prostitutes after shaving their genitalia."

Water found in the ground fell from the sky just in the last few years, and in the deeper aquifers in the last few hundred years.

Many aquifers that are currently being rapidly depleted by pumping for irrigated agriculture were charged with meltwaters from the continental ice sheet at the end of the Pleistocene. A minor thing but it would be better to say that most major aquifers were charged with water a few thousand, rather than hundred, years ago.

I stopped reading after:

The monetary elite has every reason to develop and sustain the meme that oil is running out. The wealth to be garnered by controlling such a basic substance is phenomenal. The perception that such a substance is rare and getting rarer only adds to its value

Well you probaly missed this little gem then:

What are the global resources in place? Estimates vary. But approximately six to eight trillion barrels each for conventional and unconventional oil resources (shale oil, tar sands, extra heavy oil) represent probable figures -- inclusive of future discoveries. As a matter of context, the globe has consumed only one out of a grand total of 12 to 16 trillion barrels underground.

What percentage of global resources is ultimately recoverable? The industry recovers an average of only one out of three barrels of conventional resources underground and considerably less for the unconventional. This benchmark, established over the past century, is poised to change upward. Modern science and unfolding technologies will, in all likelihood, double recovery efficiencies. Even a 10% gain in extraction efficiency on a global scale will unlock 1.2 to 1.6 trillion barrels of extra resources -- an additional 50-year supply at current consumption rates.

Flowrates are never mention once.

"Estimates vary. But approximately six to eight trillion barrels each for conventional and unconventional oil resources (shale oil, tar sands, extra heavy oil) represent probable figures -- inclusive of future discoveries"

That is priceless! There are eight trillion barrels of conventional oil out there somewhere - I'm going to go get my shovel and a bucket! I'm goin' to be rich I tell you!

I love the bit about "inclusive of future discoveries". Well at moment my bank account tells me that I have about £20 but I am telling everyone that I actually have £2,000,000 in the bank if you include the future lottery ticket I haven't yet bought!

(btw: how do i make a nice grey box around a quote?)

To make the greyboxes you use the blockquote html tag.

BTW - I've go 2 Trillion barrels in my back garden, I just havn't had it surveyed yet. ;-)

(btw: how do i make a nice grey box around a quote?)

There is a list of allowed HTML tags below the comment window when you are replying and a link to 'More information about fromatting options'

to make the blockquote command work replace the ( and ) with < and >

(blockquote)(btw: how do i make a nice grey box around a quote?)(/blockquote)

You can experiment by using the preview button to view the effect of any HTML tags used.

I have a couple more problems with this scheme. The article starts:

"A fleet of sail-powered, ocean-going vessels spraying sea water in the air could save billions of dollars and allow the world to continue emitting carbon dioxide like it does by burning oil and coal."

There it is. "Allow the world to continue emitting carbon dioxide"

Any scheme like this will do next to nothing (at best) to directly reduce heating (Note that spraying water will produce water vapor, a powerful greenhouse gas). But it will provide a huge rationalization for burning all the dirty coal, tar sands, and everything else we can get our hands on.

We are already way past the level of CO2 that is safe--we're now around 387 ppm while we probably need to be at or below 300ppm. If their are ways to take CO2 out of the air efficiently, they can't be used as an excuse to burn, burn, burn. But this is exactly what they will be used for.

With humans, and especially with industrial capitalism, whenever the door of moral hazard opens, we walk right through no matter what the consequences to us or our children.

The fact that Lomborg, the famous denialist, is connected with this is enough to convince me that it is a sham and a cover for industry.

Any scheme like this will do next to nothing (at best) to directly reduce heating (Note that spraying water will produce water vapor, a powerful greenhouse gas).

The actual scheme that has been proposed many times functions by creating extra cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) mainly from sea salt. This is supposed to increase the incidence of low level clouds, and to make them more reflective. It is only effective during conditions under which sea fog formation is marginal. Low level clouds are a cooling influence, while high level clouds on average are a warming influence. But at least a net cooling effect would ocurr. Of course this sort of geo-engineering can only provide a limited amount of cooling. It might be useful to avoid an extra fraction of a degree of warming (after we have stopped emissions). I suspect we will get desperate enough to try these things in the future.

Wouldn't it be better to build a really, really, really big fridge and put the whole world in the vegetable bins at the bottom. And if we built one with one of those nifty ice dispensers on the front then visiting Martians could help themselves to a cool Gin 'n' Tonic.

;)

Calling Rube Goldberg!! Where are you when we REALLY need you?

What is Martian for "Hmmmm, cold G'n'T"?

I am the Bjorn! I will not be stopped! WE will not be stopped! Stopping is OFF the Table!

Go, Go, GO! (Go to Bjorn, for Boardroom Porn! Galloping into tomorrow, on a bright pink Unicorn!)

And the giant fleet of squirty ships would have to be deployed without fail, continuously, for thousands of years after the coal runs out.

What could possibly go wrong with that plan?

Lomborg is overdue to be lost at sea.

Based on the one hour documentary i saw, the ships would be solar powered. The size of the ship would be similar to a sailing ship from a few centuries ago.

What about providing a link to this "sea cloud machine-thing". I'm still completely blank here as I didn't see a one hour special !

It's posted up top. See "Ships Spraying Sea Water May Offer Climate Quick Fix"

cheers - DB's are to rich these days :-)

But hey- think of all the new places we can drill for oil when those pesky glaciers melt away!!!

good point, in fact the oil companies should really try and melt the ice quicker so we can go get the lovely black gold and all fill our SUVs up. Jeez, you doomers are way to pessimistic. All we need to do is detonate a small tactical nuke above the ice and then we can Drill, Baby! Drill!

Peak Oil! Not in my name!

And seriously (yet, sadly) ice melt in the Artic has opened up the Northwest Passage and allows for drilling of the Arctic Ocean for oil.

.... that so called Peak Oil will become available.... nah ?

This is rough:

Another Hurdle for the Jobless: Credit Inquiries

Digging out of debt keeps getting harder for the unemployed as more companies use detailed credit checks to screen job prospects.

I can understand why companies might see bad credit as a sign of poor judgment...but jeez, how is anyone ever going to improve their credit if they can't get a job?

The game is so rigged I'm surprised that people still try to get back into it. The middle class is collapsing and once your out your not eligible to get back in. Unless, of course, you can bring money to the table and can be fleeced again. Its systemic, such a large Middle Class can no longer be supported, so its size must be whittled down, in a systematic way.

Revolutions don't start with the poor, they start with a disenfranchised middle class that is led by disaffected intellectuals.

Revolutions don't start with the poor, they start with a disenfranchised middle class that is led by disaffected intellectuals

truer words have never been spoken. All that is needed for a damn good revolution is to take away the faint hope of advancement. The masses are tranquil whilst they still have a glimmer of hope; withdraw that hope and they will start building guillotines.

It would be a great sight to behold: guillotines in Times Square and Trefalgar Square with basket upon basket of neatly severed heads kindly donated by the banking cartel.

I think it is going to happen.

Here's the problem...

Various right wing blowhards have been demonizing "intellectuals", disaffected or otherwise, for a good long while now - to the point that anything an "intellectual" tries to convince a disenfranchised member of the middle class of will evoke an knee jerk reaction where the messenger is typically bashed mercilessly (just for being an "intellectual") while the message goes completely unheard. Many of us "intellectuals" have been telling members of the lower middle class for years that they are getting royally screwed but time and time again they vote and support policy that goes against their own self-interest (the old "What's the Matter with Kansas" situation).

So the situation now is that TPTB have successfully turned us against ourselves - just left to fight over the scraps really - while the hijacking of the country continues unabated. As a "liberal" (or is it progressive) scientist and environmentalist I know a pretty good portion of people in the US hate everything I care about because of what they've been told by Fox News and Limbaugh et al. So I don't think you'll see much leadership from the "intellectual" side of things. Speaking for myself (and I suspect many others) the last thing I care to try is to convince people anymore about what's coming - we've only been screaming for 30 years and have been abused for at least as long. As someone on the TOD hilariously pointed out it won't be too long before all the middle class has the horrific revelation (worse than death itself perhaps ?) that the "dirty hippies were right..."

So I suspect any "revolution" will involve those who align themselves with various ideologies pretty much destroying each other while those who really should be the target of everyone's wrath will slip away into the night - to find new opportunities for rape and pillaging...

Edit: we're starting to see the early stages of this with the town hall meetings for healthcare reform - no legitimate discussion can even take place anymore because Repug goon squads have been unleashed to be completely disruptive... I have absolutely no problem with dissenting views being discussed but that is not what these displays are about in any way... I suspect this will only get worse as the gov't tries to address more and more of the thorny issues that can't be put off for another day any longer.

I know many former Fox news watchers that now are begining to see it is all a lie. Even the younger generation is clued in. People come to their senses one at a time.
The pain isn't bad enough yet.

the last thing I care to try is to convince people anymore about what's coming - we've only been screaming for 30 years and have been abused for at least as long. As someone on the TOD hilariously pointed out it won't be too long before all the middle class has the horrific revelation (worse than death itself perhaps ?) that the "dirty hippies were right..."

So I suspect any "revolution" will involve those who align themselves with various ideologies pretty much destroying each other while those who really should be the target of everyone's wrath will slip away into the night - to find new opportunities for rape and pillaging...

PREACH IT!!!

Porge,

I'm afraid that I agree with you to the extent that I am no longer CERTAIN that it won't happen.

My take is that a handful of really bent out of shape broke guys with a grudge may grab a banker here and there off the street or just mow him down 1930s Chicago style.

I have already heard several hillbillies say that if somebody cleaned them or thier parents out the way some crooks in banks and brokerages have cleaned out thier customers,that they would take care of the problem themselves,as "the law sure as hell ain't gonna do nothingaboutit."

Such people have thier counterparts in every city with a tough nieghborhood,and a good many of them have already pulled hard time as a result of settleing scores that meant much less to them than thier personal finances or the well being of thier parents.

Any farmer who has spent his life in the small towns and mountians of the south probably knows at least a half a dozen or so violent felons by sight,and at least one fairly well.And I'm only talking about the ones who have been convicted.

Certain it won't happen? I am certain it will.
The law is in place to protect the haves from the Hillbillies.
I think vigilante justice is an absolute given in the near future
I still can't believe what has been done by the financial elite and the government right out in the open.
I also can't believe the arrogant, complacent almost fearless attitude of the crooks.
I have already removed my consent and my money from the system and I am not playing anymore.

The Banks, Wall Street and corporate robber barons have been taking US citizens to the cleaners for 100s of years. There's been multiple financial and banking crises in the US over the last 200 years or so. Each time they become more elaborate and bigger, transferring wealth away from the many to the few. And the people didn't revolt in any meaningful way during the whole period, even with a civil war in the middle of it.

I think the problem is that US citizens are so bombarded with propaganda and so totally brainwashed that they're unable to separate reality from the illusion. Believe me, I worked in the Eastern Block (when there was one) and the people there were no where near as brainwashed by the communist system as the Americans are by theirs. The constant psychological manipulation of people in the US seems to have left them susceptible, defenceless and wholly open to ungrounded ideas and beliefs that others just wouldn't accept (although the techniques and methods are now becoming more widespread throughout the world).

Americans, and increasingly everyone else, are bound to the yoke by economic totalitarianism and they're not going to revolt or escape while that system controls their very thoughts.

The real reason that Americans swallow everything hook, line and sinker is because it has always been better here than elsewhere in the world.
That necessary precondition is eroding and once people feel that they don't have the best deal on the planet anymore they will act.
This point I make is THE reason for every word you wrote above. Until very recently other inhabitants of the planet wanted to migrate here in droves.
America still has a low population density for the land area but it is beginning to become saturated economically and resource constrained.
I agree with everything that you think but I have stated the reason.

"The real reason that Americans swallow everything hook, line and sinker is because it has always been better here than elsewhere in the world."

In what way is it, was it, better? And why would it make them more naive and susceptible to psychological manipulation as a result?

The US has relied on immigration for most of its existence and not surprisingly made itself very attractive to would be immigrants. Once in the US immigrants are immersed into the full spectrum social programming that the US is so successful at.

Maybe, as you elude, reality is beginning to impinge itself and is showing through the illusion.

Voluntary migration has always been almost entirely a one-way street into the USA, right up until the present moment. That's all the evidence necessary to demonstrate that whatever it is that puts people on the move (which might be the subject of another discussion), things are quite consistently (even if not invariably) better in the USA.

For example, in order to make Europe look good, one must cherry-pick with great care. One must look only post World War II and ignore the many shenanigans that were going on even then - Franco, the Greek dictatorships, the various wars, etc. Otherwise one would be unable to avoid seeing an endless continuous series of tawdry wars, starvations, sackings, invasions, persecutions, and so on.

There cannot be a scintilla of doubt about why so many people left and are still leaving other places for the USA - and social-programming conspiracy would be wholly superfluous to the process. The only possible doubt might be on the part of naive individuals delusional about human nature, politics, and governance, able to cling to naive starry-eyed notions because they personally have always had it so very good, and have been exposed to relatively little of the very worst.

That would include nearly all modern Americans and a considerable number of younger West Europeans. Their incessant spoiled-brat whining and bellyaching about their unbearable existences amidst unprecedented peace and plenty are surely utterly incomprehensible to the great majority in this world.

The masses are tranquil whilst they still have a glimmer of hope; withdraw that hope and they will start building guillotines.

Exactly backwards. The truly hopeless are the tranquil ones; they know better than to fight what they can't beat. It's the ones still with hope but who see it being thwarted or disappearing that get unruly and uppity.

That is why the poor never do anything.
The freshly impoverished that have tasted the good life are the revolutionaries.
I think that Americans are ballsy enough that when the epiphany hits enough something will happen.

An interesting bunch of article today, a few stood out:

1. Anyone who even considers using technical analysis to predict intermediate oil prices needs a trip to the therapist. There are just too many externalities.

2. Good to see a fund manager talking sense :

Jeremy Grantham of US fund manager GMO, beyond our debt problems "lurks another longer-term and more important factor affecting future growth – the increasing limitations on resources. We're simply running out of everything at a dangerous rate".
The planet's metal supply is fast depleting, and the quality of what's left is lower: "where 30 tons of copper ore once produced a ton of copper, it now takes 500 tons". Even water's running out.
As the planet's population soars, says Grantham, "we must prepare ourselves for waves of higher resource prices and shortages unlike anything we've faced outside wartime".

3. Spraying sea water into the air to mitigate GW sounds a but daft to me. Better to just not burn FF.

"The Federal Trade Commission said Thursday it would begin policing the petroleum industry with new penalties for anyone attempting to manipulate energy prices."

And what of the silver futures market? The Wall Street banksters have short sold four times more silver than exists on the market. And ask GATA about the gold cartel!

Retail-level customers of gold and silver have long since noted that the spot market price has become disconnected from the futures market, regardless of whether contango or backwardation exists. The oil futures are also becoming disconnected from the real world. I'm a Peak Oiler, but $70 oil in the midst of a new depression only indicates to me that there is market manipulation.

but $70 oil in the midst of a new depression only indicates to me that there is market manipulation.

Yep, OPEC admit to it!

Are we about to hit Peak Oil?

On a simplistic basis, says Kemp, Peak Oil "must be true". Like all good things, "oil is something they don't make any more".Even if demand remains steady, the world would need the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudis to keep up with demand increases between now and 2030, reckons Dr Birol.

But, says Kemp, there's no reason we won't be able to find that

Finding six new Saudi Arabias in the next twenty years??? Has this guy seen the discovery profile for the last 25 years?

Finding six new Saudi Arabias in the next twenty years??? Has this guy seen the discovery profile for the last 25 years?

To be honest it is no big deal. It can't be that difficult otherwise the oil companies wouldn't have cut back their E&R budgets recently and hung up their shovels. They know they have loads of time and I'm guessing they also know exactly where the new Saudi Arabias will be found.

HAcland, I do hope you are being sarcastic. Sometimes I see posts such as yours and think they are serious and reply with a good dose of common sense, only to find out later that the poster was just trying to be funny without posting the appropriate smiley face.

Please do that next time otherwise some people will think you are being serious and are therefore really, really dum...err... uninformed.

Ron P.

;););););););););););););););)

Sorry, I just assumed that my comment didn't require the smiley face as it was soooooo obviously sarcastic in nature!

But just to play devil's advocate, how would you have replied had I have been serious?

:)

Actually I thought you were serious and I thought my reply was appropriate. It was my way of posting my hard disagreement without being really insulting. It was my way of saying that I really don't believe that crap.

It wasn't obvious at all that you were being sarcastic because many posters here are equally as uninformed and post such outrageous comments while being dead serious.

So to answer your question; how would I have replied if I had believed you were serious. Well, you got it because I thought you were serious. And still I am not so sure. Though your post was outrageous, it simply did not have the tone of someone trying to be sarcastic. It read really dead-pan serious to me.

Ron P.

Ok, you are obviously in a very serious mood! I won't mince my words:

I believe the chances of Big Oil (or smaller oil) finding even one new Saudi Arabia within the next 20 years, flow-testing it, bring it on line to maximum production, building all the necessary infrastructure and getting the oil to market would have approximately the same odds as my whippet (who is currently curled up next to me on the sofa) jumping up and dancing the Macarena whilst simultaneously balancing a sea-lion on her tail and reciting the works of Shakespeare in Latin. She's a clever hound so I wouldn't rule it out but there's a lot more chance she will just stay curled up right where she is.

;)

As I have said before, there is a Ghawar sized field sitting right under Detroit waiting to be tapped.

If the U.S. reduced oil use by 25%, that would be the same as finding a new Ghawar.

On a simplistic basis, says Kemp, Peak Oil "must be true". Like all good things, "oil is something they don't make any more".Even if demand remains steady, the world would need the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudis to keep up with demand increases between now and 2030, reckons Dr Birol.

Go to Titan.

Er, wait, what about that EROEI thingy...? Ahhh, who cares.

dancing the Macarena whilst simultaneously balancing a sea-lion on her tail

Yes, she can:

You balance your world on the tip of your nose, like a sea-lion with a ball at the carnaval.
- Jethro Tull

I picked up on the sarcasm immediately. If you, Ron, read nothing more than that sentence, you might think I was criticizing you. No, this is a good demonstration of the many shortcomings of the written word especially in blogging. For more on this subject: http://www.cps.usfca.edu/ob/studenthandbooks/321handbook/verbal.htm

Interesting Article .. This part caught my eye..

The difficulty with adults, of course, is that very often we do not let into awareness the physical sensations which we experience. We often mistrust our fantasy lives and tend to be afraid to permit ourselves to dream. We experience the world, then, in an abstract way rather than in a concrete and imagic way. The meanings that we permit ourselves to be aware of are verbal and abstract. What we abstract from the physical stimuli which we experience is dependent on our vocabularies and our reasoning abilities. But those three layers of experience concrete, imagic, and abstract are going on continuously.

My mom is reading a book right now called "Seeing Voices" Oliver Sacks - that examines how people who haven't heard/learned language are constrained from abstract thinking. 'Confined to literal and immediate perceptions'

~~~~~~~

I had a very strict creative writing teacher in High School, and he would slap me silly from the great beyond if I tried to add Emoticons into my writing.

If I think I'm being way too dry (it happens), I will toss in 'kidding' or 'Wink, wink', I suppose. But I'm afraid I see the smiley as an uninvited and overly close cousin to 'clippy', the annoying MS-Word animated helper. I'll take my chances of being misunderstood with just those written words. I like the challenge.

Bob

It wasn't obvious at all that you were being sarcastic

It was obvious to me.

I see humour when I read it too, but we are all wired a bit different. Ron/Darwinian, you are one of the important assets of TOD - but humour, backchat and classic throwaway lines in the drumbeats is important to me and others. Some visitors might want a lighter mood without having to explain when people are not debating. I am not here to debate much [I don't have the time for starters]. I'm here to leech the astounding news, knowledge and ideas from contributors. If I make a difference, I do it off the web.

I thought it was obvious you were joking. I laughed, especially at the part about knowing where the Saudi Arabias would be found.

Found this Chinese article (translated to English via Google). It's not a very good translation, but it seems to be about China's oil strategy. And it mentions Matt Simmons.

Unfortunatley it is so badly translated that I fail to understand the jist of it -does it really say that PO Theory is trotted out whenever the US wants to regain interest in the Dollar (people have to buy more $$s as prices rise)?? Dunno...

Nick.

Hi Noutram,
What you didn't follow that? %P
You asked

does it really say that PO Theory is trotted out whenever the US wants to regain interest in the Dollar (people have to buy more $$s as prices rise)??

I believe you are correct but then the writer says this "trotting out of PO" creates a paradox with the US government down-playing Artic reserves.
(huh?? %/ )
Believing this, the writer throws up his hands and says to wait and see which way this paradox plays out- my take is that he wants to wait to see if our government believes that we have passed peak or not.
just my humble interpretation.

Jeff

Interesting piece you linked to Leanan-
I "read" it so you won't have to!
The "commentary" has items we have heard before and some new things that are cause for pause.
The items we've heard before were:

  • China has concern for US inflation and bond market losses
  • China hopes for higher interest rates
  • Due to the above items, is concerned with (and resents) USD as oil trading currency
  • Looks to int'l basket currency to use for oil
  • China will use foreign exchange reserves to gradually boost SPR
  • The most interesting though was strategic stuff:

  • China thinks the West will sanction Iran if no nuclear agreement is reached
  • China will support Iran economically through trade and investment if sanctions are implemented
  • China anticipates US attempts to contain China and her "oil strategy"
  • China believes our near-East presence is a threat to Pakistan, India, and China
  • Sounds like interesting times ahead.
    My big question is who is this Wang Lin of Shanghai, and who was this commentary written for?

    Sooo...

    Do the Chinese want us to think that they think these things (which sound so plausible), or are they playing a deeper game? Publishing in Chinese, not English: very cunning ;-)

    ?? -- @@@@ --- ?? (whirling thoughts, spinning head)

    Although this list is a little old (I think the corolla is now #1), this is the list for the most traded for cars in cash for clunkers.

    1. Ford Focus
    2. Honda Civic
    3. Toyota Corolla
    4. Toyota Prius
    5. Ford Escape
    6. Toyota Camry
    7. Dodge Caliber
    8. Hyundai Elantra
    9. Honda Fit
    10. Chevy Cobalt

    Even though there was only the minimum 2 MPG increase, I think the fears were overblown. All but the ford escape are compact/midsize cars. This makes sense because I would imagine few people with vehicles under 18 MPG that qualify under the program could likely afford a new truck/SUV, seeing as trucks/SUVs are really expensive, without even considering gas.

    Daxtatter -

    While the order may be slightly different, the latest list still contains the same car models as in your list above.

    I am not a big fan of this Cash for Clunkers program for many of the same reasons discussed in a previous TOD thread on the subject. However, there is one other observation I'd like to make: out of the ten top cars purchased under the Cash for Clunkers program three are Toyotas, two are Hondas, and one is a Hyundai.

    We have had for some time a global auto industry,one in which cars of different manufacturers are now being made in each other's countries and in which the various component of an individual car model can be sourced from several different countries.

    Even with that being the case, a not insignificant amount of the Cash for Clunkers cash will wind up in Japan and Korea. Therefore, part of the taxes Americans are paying and part of the massive debt Americans are incurring may actually be helping the Japanese and Korean auto workers more than the American auto workers.

    As a US taxpayer, I hope the Japanese and Koreans appreciate my generosity.

    Why not just have "Cash for Clunkers", instead of "Cash for Clunkers IF you buy a new car"?

    Because it's meant to be an incentive to boost the sales of efficient vehicles, not just get the lemons off the road.

    I think the idea of Bikes for clunkers is an interesting germ.. maybe 'E-Motorbike and 1kw of PV for Clunkers' (Or somehow make the size of the PV cover the difference..)

    "As a US taxpayer, I hope the Japanese and Koreans appreciate my generosity."

    I hope you appreciate the generosity of Japanese and Koreans for making fuel efficient cars so that US taxpayers can save $$$ on oil imports. Why did US car companies kill the 80mpg car project when Bush was elected?

    Let's not be naive, the Japanese and Koreans are building those for a profit, not out of charitable generosity. OTOH, the gifts we're giving are just that, gifts returning no significant benefit to the givers. Whatever of the largesse doesn't go overseas winds up in "Detroit". That means it goes to grossly overpaid negligibly skilled flunkies whose jobs constructively disappeared decades ago, long before most were ever even hired; and to their billionaire overseers who likewise have accomplished little or nothing of use in their entire lives. In other words, one might as well have burned it.

    The trouble is that the bailouts of incompetent and nefarious bankers have become an excuse to shower money everywhere and anywhere. (And never mind that the bankers did their deeds pursuant to public policy that loudly trumpeted that every Tom, Dick, Harry, Jane, and Susan with no useful skills or usable intelligence was to "own" a vast cardboard-and-vinyl palace they could never pay for in a million years, plus cars and boats to go with.) We're apparently going to give away the whole store, helicopter load by helicopter load. When the shelves are finally bare, we can just close up and go home...oh, wait a minute...it is home, there's nowhere else to go.

    Well, here is a different list and SUVs and trucks are the winners!

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/07/autos/cash_for_clunkers_sales/index.htm?...

    OMG! That is like a page right out of "How to Lie With Statistics"!

    What a wonderful obfuscation by the Government!

    Total misinformation on how people are buying fuel efficient small cars is being repeated in the MSM. It will be interesting to see if other news services pick up on this or if it is lost in the noise.

    The Obama administration can spin data as well as Bush ever did. Can we just dissolve our government and start over?

    The Obama administration can spin data as well as Bush ever did. Can we just dissolve our government and start over?

    Hahaha -- look at today's unemployment number. How fast is Obama spinning? Fast enough to drill a hole through the earth in search for abiatic OIL.

    "Yes, we can" manipulating data as well as anyone else can.

    It grates a little to read something that implies that, somehow, the president is personally responsible for this nonesense. Oh well. Here's my spin:

    This is the way the entire government thinks about cars. In the bureaucratic mind they ARE different cars, the NHTSA and the EPA say so. Also the laws are written by congress, not the administration, regardless of the original intent of the administration. For all I know the Cash for Clunkers law is exactly what the administration wanted. Or not. Obama probably has no idea what's in the law or what a clunker is.

    Well, to be fair, is is really the elected offical doing the spin, or the non-elected personnel that stay from elected official to elected official (the Wormtongues, if you will)?

    Karl Rove was rare, as his ego seems to make him come out from hiding and try to be a public figure, but usually they are always in the shadows...whispering... and writing reports.

    RE:Copenhagen May Help Set Warming Cap, Munich Re Says

    “If China, India and the U.S. stand by their commitments, I’m really optimistic,” Peter Hoeppe, chief scientist at the Munich-based reinsurer, said in an interview.

    If Pigs grew big hairy wings with a span of 23ft then they could hover like hummingbirds.

    seriously would someone like to explain to me how China, India and the U.S are going to implement and realise their commitments?

    The devil is always in the detail. I'm not disputing that every last man woman and child in the affluent world could be dragged kicking and screaming to bicycle school and night school lessons in "how to quarter your calorific intake" but I find it highly unlikely.

    Marco.

    Did I catch a note of disbelief creeping in? Shame on you!

    Anyone here buy this?


    Job Losses Slow in July, Signaling Shift in the Economy

    Somehow, with all the job loss -- magically, the unemployment rate went down. How many financial masseuses does Obama employ?

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/unemployment-report-distortions/24080

    Chris Martenson nails it in one. worth a read..

    I love the government's approach- if you don't like the measurement, change the measuring stick.

    Well, according to shadowstats, we're well over 10% unemployment now... Almost to Depression levels, actually...

    Denninger has some analysis.

    That's not magic, it's people giving up on finding a job and falling out of the labour force altogether. The unemployment rate only counts people actively looking for a job.

    From here, it seems like yet another sign that things aren't looking quite as rosy as the media would have us believe.

    The unemployment rate only counts people actively looking for a job

    SS , who count these previously employed folks ?
    The Bureau of Census knows almost exactly how many Usaians are alive - and some other office knows exactly how many Usaians are employed - and so forth ...
    Maybe thay are accounted for over at the Salvation army or does some people go under the ground disappearing entirely from the statistics ? Many Q's few A's.

    SS , who count these previously employed folks ?
    The Bureau of Census knows almost exactly how many Usaians are alive - and some other office knows exactly how many Usaians are employed - and so forth ...
    Maybe thay are accounted for over at the Salvation army or does some people go under the ground disappearing entirely from the statistics ? Many Q's few A's.

    As far as I know, they disappear from the labour statistics until they start looking for a job again. I'm no expert on this, though. I just remember that little quirk of the unemployment figures from my macroeconomics class in university.

    "... I just remember that little quirk of the unemployment figures from my macroeconomics class in university. ..."

    Little quirk? When one set of numbers is almost double the other? (And those two sets are both government sets.) That's not a "little quirk" - it's a gross distortion.

    We all know the cliche about the three kinds of lies. Well, I submit that there are actually four: Lies, damned lies, statistics, and economic statistics.

    You are missing the fact that about one third of 15-65 year old have never worked or don't want to work. Some are at school, some home with small children, some are wealthy and don't need to "work" some have retired early, some in prison, some in military forces(not counted in civilian labor force) and the rest are wanting to work but cannot find work( ie the unemployed).

    Re: The Homely Costs of Energy Conservation

    Whilst Mr. Lovins has done much to move us in the right direction, I doubt anything he does to his 4,000 sq. ft., 16 inch thick stone wall, half buried into a mountain, this-is-what-a-moon-colony-would-look-like homestead will be all that relevant to the rest of us. That said, nothing pleases me more than to be proved wrong.

    Edit: I admire and congratulate this couple for "walking the talk" but, again, I fear the underlying message that's being conveyed is that one must spend a lot of money to make a home energy efficient or "green", and that mere mortals need not apply; nothing could be further from the truth.

    HERMANS ISLAND — John and Laurie Bullard have the greenest house in Atlantic Canada, even though it’s taupe with white trim.

    The Massachusetts couple has built a home on Hermans Island, Lunenburg County, that’s received the LEED Platinum certification from the U.S. Green Building Council. Only one other home in the country has such a high ranking, and it’s in Calgary.

    The platinum certification is the highest ranking for green homes, which means it’s the most environmentally sustainable house you can build.

    See: http://thechronicleherald.ca/NovaScotia/1136206.html

    Cheers,
    Paul

    I see what you mean.

    If Green hasn't become precious enough, now we have to add Platinum to it, huh?

    Maybe I could just take an old chipper(with a fresh coat of paint, not green..) and go around to my fellow Americans and help them choose all the surplus junk in the Attic/Basement/Garage/Yard/Storage that they need to get rid of, chip it down good, and paste it onto the outside of their homes as heavy insulation.

    I'm a fan of Lovins, nonetheless, and he shows the numbers, whereby a costly superinsulated structure will often already pay for itself by only needing MUCH less of a Furnace or AC system, and the fuel-use that follows it. But even when the numbers back it up.. the upfront TRUST that it takes to change our building assumptions like that is too much for almost anybody to go for.

    Hi Bob,

    New, quite traditional looking, R2000 homes have been around these parts for some twenty-five years or more now. These homes typically use 30 to 40 per cent less energy than a conventional new home; they're somewhat more expensive (5 to 10 per cent on average), but the additional carrying charges are more than offset by the savings in utilities.

    According to Conserve Nova Scotia, an older, less-efficient home might have a space heating and cooling requirement of about 35,000 kWh/year. A new, conventional home of similar size might be in the range of 14,000 kWh and an R2000 home would be perhaps 9,000. With a high efficiency air-source heat pump, that 9,000 kWh of heating demand translates to be about 3,000 kWh at the meter base, at which point, unless you happen to be off-grid, you might as well call it a day (I bet there are plenty of homes that use more electricity to power their plasma tvs).

    There's really no need for radical design -- conventional solutions with standard, off-the-shelf hardware will do just fine, particularly when combined with a conservation ethic.

    Cheers,
    Paul

    ...The planet's metal supply is fast depleting, and the quality of what's left is lower: "where 30 tons of copper ore once produced a ton of copper, it now takes 500 tons"...

    Embodied in that statement is the simple truth that although there may be a GAZILLION tonnes of XYZ in the ground it's taking us more and more energy to get each tonne out -and as mining is essentially the conversion of energy to metal, metals are bound to go up in price...

    However, at some point we hit a limit to what society is prepared or able to pay and demand destruction kicks in.

    My big 'aha' moment this last year was a better understanding of this trigger threshold wrt. Oil and that prices would not just rise for it ad-nauseum. Credit also adds a further complication to the mix in that it allows us to borrow from the future in order to carry on overpaying -for a time- in the present. At some point last year, higher commodity prices and reduced access to credit/our ability to over-pay came together and the whole thing crashed out.

    Most commodities then seriously overshot on the downside due to depression fears / panic / collapse of demand, but now with Chinese stockpiling and govt. infrastructure spending things don't look quite so bad and prices have rebounded somewhat.

    For certain key non-discretional commodities the outlook is looking increasingly good price wise as some production was shut in yet longer-term demand remains robust. I think analysts are generally underestimating the sheer scale of the requirement / demand from China -and probably India and many other RICs- as they build up cities and infrastructure even in the face of spent-out Western Consumer demand collapse.

    A video-link posted here pointed to the possibility that China was over-stockpiling and that there was no way it could have created internal demand so quickly. Personally I think it is quite easy to create internal demand as shown by such tricks and treats as 'Cash For Clunkers' and mailshots of wads of cash to spend (recent American examples). In addition Quantitative Easing, low saving interest rates and cheap loans set up the conditions for a Inflation (spend money now or lose its value) and spending now. The Chinese have 20%+ saving rate and it seems that policy is being directed to get them to spend and borrow. The recent 48% increase in July car purchases shows there is a HUGE pent-up consumer demand in this country of 1.3Billion...

    IMO while the West stews and slowly recovers, the East will spend, build and borrow more keeping demand robust. Call it another bubble in the making if you will...

    That's my take anyway.

    Nick.

    Embodied in that statement is the simple truth that although there may be a GAZILLION tonnes of XYZ in the ground it's taking us more and more energy to get each tonne out -and as mining is essentially the conversion of energy to metal, metals are bound to go up in price...

    For people who don't get the implications of this, which to a good first approximation is "the human race", how about an imaginary planet called Blenderworld. The planet is utterly homogeneous other than evolved topsoil and life. No overshoot industrial revolutions likely.

    Our activity is moving earth closer to Blenderworld status.

    This is from CNN Money:

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/07/news/economy/jobs_july/index.htm

    "You can't lose jobs and have the unemployment rate decline unless folks are opting out," said Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco Group North America, a unit of the world's largest employment staffing firm. "That means unemployment is going to go back up again."

    I found this very interesting after Mish's links to people that have run out of unemployment benefits and found no jobs. Truly a crises and it shows the extreme disconnect between reality and the stock market which is up 141+ on news that unemployment for July is much lower than estimates and the rate went down from 9.5% to 9.4% instead of up.

    Hello dummy ... over 100K people fell out of the safty net last month. Wall Street parties on.

    I read in another place that 70% of the trades are high frequency microsecond trades so Goldman and their "liquidity computer" should make even more millions today by cutting in front of most traders.

    Chris Martenson, quoting the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, says the number should be 9.8% because 637,000 people left the labor force last month. Click on the word "source" in the blockquote below if you think he is lying.

    Unemployment Report Distortions

    In the table below showing the Household data source we can see that the way in which the rate of unemployment dropped from 9.5% to 9.4% was almost entirely due to the fact that 637,000 people were dropped from the labor force and not from an increase in employment.

    Civilian labor force ....| 153,993| 154,912| 155,081| 154,926| 154,504| -422 
      Employment ............| 141,578| 140,591| 140,570| 140,196| 140,041| -155 
      Unemployment ..........|  12,415|  14,321|  14,511|  14,729|  14,462| -267 
    Not in labor force ......|  80,920|  80,547|  80,371|  80,729|  81,366|  637 
                             |________|________|________|________|________|________ 
    

    If we leave these 637,000 people in the labor force then the rate of unemployment would have increased from 9.5% to 9.8%. What's the difference between unemployment slipping to 9.4% rather than increasing to 9.8%?

    Ron P.

    Edit: I just heard the above explained on MSNBC and they said that is why the unemployment drop is not really the good news that it appears to be. I was shocked to hear this on MSNBC.

    ... because 637,000 people left the labor force last month

    Could you elaborate this Ron or others 'close to the issue' ?
    I mean 637,000 is A LOT OF people so somone should know where they are :-)
    Q: Is this a mix of people that are imprisoned, gone incognito, entered retirement, mental house ... re education and so forth ! or what ?

    Actually Paal the number is 81,366,000. The 637,000 is just those who were added to the rolls of those not in the labor force since last month. Exactly who are they. Well, your guess is as good as mine. I just copied and pasted the data from the web page of The Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Click on the red word "Source" in my post above.) But I suspect most of the new additions were discouraged dropouts. You might find this interesting also, from the same source.

    Among the marginally attached, there were 796,000 discouraged workers in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in July had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

    Ron P.

    Thanks for this and yes I see that the gross accumulated 'Not in labor force'- number is 81,366,000.

    In studying that (monthly?) table it is obvious that they report the *wrong* numbers.

    What they should have reported was another Quotient namely ==>>
    ( #Unemployment PLUSS #Not_in_labor_force ) / #Employment ....IMO. This Quotient would indicate how many IDLE folks PER ACTIVE folks-

    If the table is monthly then the Idle/active numbers would increase from Mars at 0.659 to July at 0.685 . If this number reaches 1.0 then ....

    EDIT : In ONLY 5 months the ratio of 'IDLE folks per ACTIVE folks' has risen by 4 % (0.685 / 0.659 = 1.039 or rounded 1.04)

    I'd say the US economical 'GDP_production_base_speed' was about MINUS 4% over tha last 5 months, wow wow (!)

    The stock market is a manipulated casino. America is living a lie.

    Re: Radio host and author Thom Hartmann talks about Threshold

    Thank you for the link to the Thom Hartmann interview. He opened my eyes to Peak Oil over ten years ago and IMHO he is still the best at expressing the global response that we need to make. I'd love to see him pop in here at TOD and join in on the discussion.

    "We need a fundamental rethink of how we've constructed our economies: the idea that growth is good, and the understanding of the carrying capacity of the earth for human flesh. In the absence of oil, the planet had only a billion people on it and it was groaning under that—and, at that we were killing off whales like crazy. Arguably, the planet might only be able to handle half a billion people without oil—and we've hit peak oil. We've got to figure out how to keep the other 6.5 billion from starving, and to stop producing more of them."

    "...we find that the most consistent factor that will stabilize a population, even within a single generation, is when women have power equal to men, and that's a huge cultural issue."

    Great concise summary of the core problem.

    Arguably, the planet might only be able to handle half a billion people without oil—and we've hit peak oil.

    Half a billion could have been supported without oil in the past but the carrying capacity has been degraded during the meanwhile. 200 million is tops today, and that's stretching it.

    We've got to figure out how to keep the other 6.5 billion from starving, and to stop producing more of them.

    May as well say that we've got to figure out how to exceed the speed of light or to reverse entropy in the entire system. Some things just can't be done.

    Exactly! I checked the book out on Amazon.com. Thought about ordering it until I read the (three) reviews. This one caught my eye:

    An urgent look at our world's looming crisis and what we must do to avert it,

    Yes, we must convince 7 billion people to change their way of life. We must convince every woman on earth to have only one child in her life. The rich must be convinced to share their wealth with the hungry people of the earth, on condition, of course, that they have no more children.

    It is really very simple, we must change human nature. The change must enable us to pry silly notions and ancient superstitions from their mind and enable us to simply tell them what to do and they will obey. That is if we make the right kind of changes in human nature.

    Ron P.

    Hartmann is no dummy and knows full well that a die off will occur. At the same time he's also part Albert Schweitzer, doing lots of humanitarian work and viewing the world from a spiritual (NOT religious) perspective. Like Schweitzer, he'll go down swinging trying to help others, despite how filled with doom and gloom the situation is.

    I'm of a similar perspective. Rationally, when TSHTF it will be a total mess, but I'll do my best to help others and create a new sustainable life for my neighbors and descendants. All is not lost, but getting the human population down to sustainable levels will likely look horrific from a worldly perspective. Plenty of suffering for everyone I predict.

    I've read almost all of Hartmann's books (he is very prolific writer) and I'm sure he would agree with the following Schweitzer quotes:

    "Until he extends his circle of compassion to include all living things, man will not himself find peace."

    "I don't know what your destiny will be, but one thing I do know: the only ones among you who will be really happy are those who have sought and found how to serve."

    Ron said,

    It is really very simple, we must change human nature. The change must enable us to pry silly notions and ancient superstitions from their mind and enable us to simply tell them what to do and they will obey. That is if we make the right kind of changes in human nature.

    It's deeper than that, Ron. What I have been saying is: Unprotected, uninformed, unimpeded heterosexual intercourse is killing us. It's simple, it's humiliating, it's embarrassing.

    "Ancient superstitions"--which I loathe, by the way--don't increase population.

    Unprotected f*cking does. Emphasis on unprotected. I'm not just some bitter dyke.

    On Thom Hartmann: I D I O T.

    A friend of mine kept recommending his book with "ancient sunlight" in the title. I dug the first half.

    The second half made me PUKE and want to pitch the book against the wall.

    He's got this hare-brained idea akin to the "Hundredth Monkey" phenomenon about a "transformation of consciousness" that is right out of some Shirley McLane crystal-rubbing festival.

    DEBUNKED!

    Anne, please calm down. I was just tryin to imply how silly the idea of changing the habits of 7 billion people really was.

    Having sex is just human nature, the human nature that is impossible to change. And if it kills us it will kill us but it is still a natural phenomonea. People can't really be blamed for having sex.

    I can't comment on Thom Hartmann because I have not read any of his books but you do bring up an interesting point. I would like to hear what Hartmann fans have to say about this "transformation of consciousness" thing. What's your opinion Odysseus?

    Ron P.

    Ron, here is a link and excerpt from his book "Prophets Way":

    http://www.blueclad1.com/hundredthmonkey.html

    So in May of 1995, I ran across Ken Keyes' book about the hundredth monkey phenomenon in a used bookstore and re-read it (I'd first read it nearly twenty years earlier, but then lost it in one of our moves), and, at the same time, was reading Sheldrake's The Presence of the Past.

    Here was scientific evidence that we're all connected, that we share a sort of collective, racial (as in Human Race) consciousness. This would explain how entire nations would go insane and engage in wars, how religions could sweep the world, why jokes seem to appear instantaneously all over the country, or even fads like Nintendo's latest game, Nike’s newest shoes, or the Hula Hoop. It could even explain epidemics, such as influenza, if you accept the Christian Science or metaphysical view that illness can start in the mind.

    We're all connected: we have shared knowledge, and that knowledge—for better or worse—is constantly evolving and changing.

    When he cited this in his "ancient sunlight" book as the secret for solving our problems, I realized how doomed we are.

    And Ron? I'm perfectly, utterly calm. Yet I apologize if I've upset you.

    Anne, you didn't really upset me I just thought you seemed overly upset about people having unprotected sex. I really can't get upset over that. Certain traits of humans often piss me off but in the end I know people are just behaving as their genes and environment have dictated.

    I see your point about "The Hundredth Monkey". I think the idea is really silly. I started reading Daniel Quinn's novel "Ishmael" but the idea of a telepathic gorilla was just more than I could take. That plus putting all humanity into two categories, the "Leavers" and the "Takers", was the last straw. I put the book down and have never picked it up since.

    Ron P.

    Darwinian and Anne, Re: "transformation of consciousness" thing

    From my readings I would say Hartmann is as technical as most of us here on TOD. He is not an atheist though, so he does include faith in people being able to make choices, and in the interconnectedness of all life. Not just as an ego system but as a united spiritual consciousness. I can't cite specific quotes, but that is my perspective from readings.

    Personally I'm an engineer and a scientist. But I have also concluded that the most logical explanation for human consciousness is explained by a holographic model of the mind and of reality. Modern physics is verifying this, and most of us monkeys have a real hard time getting egos around to realizing the truth in Hartmann's quote:

    "We're all connected: we have shared knowledge, and that knowledge—for better or worse—is constantly evolving and changing."

    There are other big thinkers who are also writing on this model of reality, from Terrence McKenna to Rick Strassman. Anyway, the idea of humanity sharing one big connected destiny and spiritual consciousness is not new, look at native american spiritual traditions to Buddhism and mystical Christian thought. Hartmann posits that our divine connection is the core of any hope for transformation of our species. Albert Schweitzer was also of this persuasion. So am I.

    If you are an Atheist and believe current reductionistic scientific thought can explain reality and point toward our solutions, then his wittings at the end of "The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight" will either piss you off or leave you befuddled.

    It's particularly for his call in the latter part of that book that I think he is a unique light in the post PO writing. I love Kunstler's and Savinar's writings and their passion, but neither of them offer solutions or hope IMHO. I still think that this impending massive PO clusterf*ck will lead to positive transformations in humanity. Yes, millions if not billions of humans will perish, and we all do eventually. Change is needed and we will be forced by the results of past actions to live differently in a post PO world. What I create, how I live, and what I pass on will matter. I still think peace of mind is possible in the midst of TSHTF. Life will go on. For me it's the spiritual (again NOT religious) understansding of this change that helps me accept it.

    I've wondered whether people put out emissions that can be detected by others. We can now record electric activity in the brain. Are we broadcasting as well as thinking"? There are many reports of people knowing when a loved one died or faced serious danger. How? (Doctored memories in many cases, perhaps.)

    People are tribal, and babies don't thrive in isolation. They're programmed to be in company. Is prayer for the sick a way of focussing attention on the person, a social support? Fish and reptiles have organs for sensing heat, birds can sense magnetic lines, cell phones function on weak signals . . . It's possible we haven't yet charted all our senses. All this is just suggestion, from one who doesn't think the universe takes much notice of us, much less listens to our concerns.

    But there's no mystery about how "We're all connected: we have shared knowledge, and that knowledge—for better or worse—is constantly evolving and changing." It's called language, the real mystical realm where everything is possible and realities can be created (until they run afoul of physics or biology). We swim in a sea of language and think that words are the things we mean by them. No, first they're words. Only "cats" by association.

    I was told of a study where the test subject sat in an observation room, and behind the one-way mirror, another person was directed to look at and then away from this test subject. There were clear indications in the test subject's brainwaves when they were being watched.

    Sorry I can't provide a link..

    But this one is a more recent brain-activity study that might interest you..

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060405/news_lz1c05buddhis.html
    Buddhism and the art of brain science

    In his studies of monks, Davidson found that electrical activity was heightened during meditation in an area of the brain called the left prefrontal cortex, just behind the forehead. Scientists have associated activity in this region with positive emotions, as opposed to the right prefrontal cortex, where increases are associated with negative feelings.

    More recently, Davidson has found that longtime Buddhist practitioners of meditation can induce a heightened pattern of electrical signals called gamma-band oscillations – which are associated with concentration and emotional control – not seen in control groups. These changes are sustained even after meditating.

    “It remains for future studies to show that these EEG signatures are caused by long-term training itself and not individual differences before training,” Davidson and his colleagues wrote in their 2004 study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    What was a little funny, if not perhaps also disturbing was this comment earlier in the article..

    Gage was wary. His colleagues had urged him to embrace the Dalai Lama's invitation, but he flew to India with unsettled questions.

    “One of the concerns was that a religious leader would have preconceived notions, and then whatever you said they would just use your words to further support their already established belief systems,” Gage said.

    Could it be that the Scientist was dealing with some of his own rigid preconceptions about Religious Leaders, as he worried about this possibility? I'm glad they all rolled through and found good people on the other end.

    Bob

    If you are an Atheist and believe current reductionistic scientific thought can explain reality and point toward our solutions, then...

    I am an atheist but what follows in your statement does not follow any logic whatsoever. Why would being an atheist imply that you think science can explain reality? I have no idea why something exist instead of nothing. Hell, some higher intelligence might have created it for all I know. There is no way that it can be proved either way. So I will die not knowing. And I can live with that until I do die.

    And I sure as hell don't think science can point toward solutions. There will be a die-off and neither science or gods can prevent it.

    I love Kunstler's and Savinar's writings and their passion, but neither of them offer solutions or hope IMHO.

    Yes I realize you want hope and solutions. You want someone to tell you that it just ain't gonna happen because God will not let it happen. After all, if you do not believe science will fix everything then that leaves only God. The spiritual oneness of all of us will together pull together, appeal to God and he will show us the way. Or something like that.

    Lotsa luck. Ron P.

    I am an atheist but what follows in your statement does not follow any logic whatsoever. Why would being an atheist imply that you think science can explain reality?

    You're right. There's no reason to link the two. I have a lot of friends who are all engineers or scientists and most of them who are not religious seem to hope there is some rational scientific explanation for life, consciousness, and how to get out of our current PO crisis. Honestly, I have nothing against Atheists. From following TOD for years, many of the best posters here are. In most cases I prefer their company to the more religious types.

    There is no way that it can be proved either way. So I will die not knowing. And I can live with that until I do die.

    That's the heart of the matter. I can't prove it either. Being more of an engineer, I make the best extrapolation and prediction about what where I believe the data points, and then see how things turn out. It's all a grand experiment and we are betting with our lives and our beliefs. That's what makes it exciting and keeps debate lively. No one can answer this question completely except for themselves.

    You want someone to tell you that it just ain't gonna happen because God will not let it happen.

    Nope, like I misspoke about linking Atheists with scientific explanation, I think you misunderstood me. I don't believe there is a "God" controlling things or who will fix anything. I think we all get the results of our actions and beliefs. We create our reality, and collectively we created PO. We also (in the USA) elected Bush 1 & 2 and Obama. We get what we deserve and what is the truest reflection of ourselves. Reality is also the stories about external events we make up and believe. It's up to the individual to decide if Bush-2 or Obama is the Antichrist or cause of our problems. Honestly, I think the problems lie within, not in our leaders.

    The spiritual oneness of all of us will together pull together, appeal to God and he will show us the way.

    Nope. I think God is sitting this one out and just watching. It's all good. I believe the universe is benevolent. Life has a funny creative interplay going on dancing with entropy. Death is only "bad" because of someone's belief or fear. Death is natural, it's just a question of when.

    I don't think the usefulness of our classroom planet earth is over yet. I see us as a species metaphorically like mixed-up teenagers: narcissistic, selfish, stupidly procreating and irresponsibly trying to numb out and escape the painful ego in our head. Like a teenager trashing their life, we can either wise up or end up killing ourselves. It's the learning that counts.

    I DO hope we learn how to get out of this by working together, and that's how I'm living. ELP baby, ELP.

    Just my little (though maybe rather unimportant) input:

    This is something that's rather seldom seen here on TOD and I fully understand the controversy of the whole topic but I really liked
    your comment (a rather brave one) and share the same view as you do here:

    Personally I'm an engineer and a scientist. But I have also concluded that the most logical explanation for human consciousness is explained by a holographic model of the mind and of reality. Modern physics is verifying this, and most of us monkeys have a real hard time getting egos around to realizing the truth in Hartmann's quote:

    "We're all connected: we have shared knowledge, and that knowledge—for better or worse—is constantly evolving and changing."

    That's actually the reason why I started studying physics.
    There's a lot of strange stuff surrounding the debate about human consciousness and it's somewhat the "hard problem" that everybody tries to solve.
    I think if you look at it from an open minded standpoint and even just consider the possibility that consciousness plays with a different kind of mechanism which could even involve other dimensional planes then the implications are tremendous.
    Essentially it would mean a sort of credit crunch for materialism and ironically enough that would fit nicely with the theme of this century, meaning our coming materialistic-wealth decline / economical contraction.

    While I can understand the scientific scepticism involved in such theories (since I too encourage the idea of scientifc evidence / empirical prove), I don't think that the all-connectedness should be a source of too much controversy since already the etymology of a "scientific" word combines this quite nicely...

    Universe (excerpts from wikipedia):

    The Latin word derives from the poetic contraction Unvorsum — which connects un, uni (the combining form of unus, or "one") with vorsum, versum (a noun made from the perfect passive participle of vertere, meaning "something rotated, rolled, changed"). Lucretius used the word in the sense "everything rolled into one, everything combined into one".

    So from a reeeeally broad point things are interconnected... even things that may not exist in our perceived reality:

    In quantum physics, perhaps most obviously in the path-integral formulation of Feynman. According to that formulation, the probability amplitudes for the various outcomes of an experiment given a perfectly defined initial state of the system are determined by summing over all possible paths by which the system could progress from the initial to final state. Naturally, an experiment can have only one outcome; in other words, only one possible outcome is made real in this Universe, via the mysterious process of quantum measurement, also known as the collapse of the wavefunction (but see the many-worlds hypothesis below in the Multiverse section). In this well-defined mathematical sense, even that which does not exist (all possible paths) can influence that which does finally exist (the experimental measurement).

    (I'm dying to have lectures about that stuff...well I'm only just entering my second year... damn it)

    BTW isn't it funny that permaculture in it's very essence of clever design and use of biodiversity actually is a great example of connectedness ?

    Essentially it would mean a sort of credit crunch for materialism and ironically enough that would fit nicely with the theme of this century, meaning our coming materialistic-wealth decline / economical contraction.

    This is how I see this overall arc of our brief human experiment in using fossil fuels. Back out the scope to plus or minus a thousand years, and the reality seems to be the human organism (call us yeast as Bob does) is expanding to use all available resources, until it pollutes the petri dish or exhausts the agar malt. It's up to us whether we exhibit a leap in awareness and change or meet our destiny and die off.

    Anyway, I enjoyed your reply. Depending how far down the consciousness rabbit hole you want to travel, I recommend you check out the following book:

    "Inner Paths to Outer Space: Journeys to Alien Worlds through Psychedelics and Other Spiritual Technologies" http://www.amazon.com/Inner-Paths-Outer-Space-Psychedelics/dp/159477224X

    In the book researcher Ede Frecska outlines a fascinating interface between cognitive neuroscience and quantum brain dynamics. As a physicist I think you would like it. He shows how physical quantum level events can be influenced by and communicate with human consciousness. The book was less about drugs and more about the repeatable realms of other reality that can be reached. A chemically repeatable pathway seems to be one experimentaly repeatable way to replicate and create intense spiritual experiences and possibly reach other physical dimensions. Truly tripy stuff, but well argued and explained.

    Odysseus,

    I think you should as time permits read Darwin,and then a few of the modern biologists who study the mind.

    Im am reasonably certain that as a scientist and engineer you will find that they have an organinez and coherent explaination of our behavior that is reasonably comparable,in terms of proof, to the theory of physics that you use in your daily work as an engineer.

    You won't find Hartmann or Schweitzer prominently featured.

    Anne o Dyne,

    I've been following your comments for the last few days and you sound like the kind of female I would like to have for a nieghbor,dyke or not.It's easy to be friends with a dyke,and I don't have to keep my gaurd up in case she wants some,cause I ain't got what she wants.(I have reached the age at which repugnant elderly females are making passes at me,even though I am obviously quite unattractive.The nicer ones that might be interesting companions are not desperate enough-yet.I'm holding out for a nice one with plenty of money.The actuarial tables are on my side as I come from long lived stock.)

    I agree with you about Borlaug,and I think that damn few of the people who insist that he was mistaken or deluded are sorry(in southern hillbilly,this word translates "worthless morally and intellectually") enough to WATCH a child starve-even if they KNOW that saving that child today means that two children will starve in the future.

    Imo you have to be a nazi to actually ADVOCATE such a policy as to let that kid starve,and there IS such a thing as a "sin of omission"-failing to help right a wrong is not a whole lot more upright than commiting the wrong personally.

    The thing that puts me in your camp,heart and soul, is that you have such a CLEAR VISION of the one aspect of our behavior that is both the ultimate problem,too many kids,and the fact that there is a key that can unlock this problem-protected sex.

    Getting the world on to The Pill is not going to be an easy thing to do.

    The difficulties are enough to scare Old Beezlebub himself.

    But it is a policy that COULD WORK,CAN WORK.

    And it is a policy that imo would be MANY TIMES more easily implemented than getting people to quit burning coal,driving cars,or fighting WW3.

    It is a policy that actually IS affordable.

    I am not predicting that it will be seriously attempted,or that a serious attempt will succeed.

    I am saying that it is a more realistic option than any other that is proactive and morally kosher.

    It probably won't work because it is unikely that it will be seriously tried.We will spend tens of millions every week on battle ship sized environmental remediation measures that would if spent on a birth control firecracker GO BANG!!!a thousand times LOUDER.

    DD;
    Where do you get this idea?

    The world had 200 million people around 0 AD, 1 Billion in 1810, and 2 Billion in 1930.

    I fully expect a large reduction is due, but I suspect we could muddle through even with a half to a third of where we are now.. (2-3 Billions)

    Bob

    I believe that what DD's referring to is a widely held belief that over the past few hundred years bio-systems have been severely degraded. A large amount of the farmland that's currently in use is useless without massive injections of fertilizers and irrigated water.

    Take a look at the Imperial Valley in CA if you want to see an area that has produced some of the largest harvests in the last 100 years yet will be all but abandoned by the end this century.

    Although this region is a desert, with high temperatures and low average rainfall of three inches (seventy-five mm) per year, the economy is heavily based on agriculture due to the availability of irrigation water, which is supplied wholly from the Colorado River via the All-American Canal.

    Many of our bio-systems, absent fossil fuels, will need to heal before they can become productive again. That might take hundreds of years. In the meantime a lot of people starve.

    Joe

    Thanks, Joe;
    I hear your point.. but on the whole have to dissent at the 200Mill number assumed.

    In either case, it's conjecture on a scale I can scarcely contain in my head, considering the variety of lands that humans live in, but as you and DD surely are pointing to, the precipitous state we've brought so much of it to. I live in a place that regrows around me with such a vengeance, that I think once we stop having enough fuel to repave all those parking lots, to clearcut new Rainforests, etc, etc.. that the tendrils will start cutting it up and growing through it in far shorter times.. but maybe you guys are right.

    I'll leave it that that's beyond my control, so I'll let it go. Do the best I can in my own sphere of influence.

    Amen

    not everyone lives in such a place. I personally live in a place with severely degraded wildlands in most places, especially near roads. The average rainfall is 10-12 inches for a year. Weeds are taking over and leaving huge swaths of DEATH for > 3/4 of the year. It would take decades, if not centuries to come anywhere near healed, even with active help from some remaining humans. In the true deserts (ex. Phoenix, Az.), it takes centuries to regrow and very little disterbance to degenerate.

    I really like Thom Hartman. He's bright, articulate, informed and he appears to be on the right side of these issues. He's also one of the first mainstream people I've heard talking about population overshoot.

    In the interview he brings up Erlich's The Population Bomb and states:

    When Paul Erlich said forty years ago that we would be hitting the wall with food production and there would be mass starvation on the planet by the turn of the century a lot of people claimed that he was dead wrong. The truth is Erlich was right but a lot of people didn't notice because the starvation didn't come to the U.S. One of the first subjects I discuss in my book is Darfur...

    Leonardo DiCaprio's documentary, The 11th Hour, was based upon the writings of Thom Hartman.

    Here's a Time Capsule from the 11th Hour. One of the less optimistic predictions:

    "With what I know today about the extensive misuse of Chemistry on a global scale I cannot conjure up good dreams for the future."
    Theo Colborn Ph.D.,
    President of The Endocrine Disruption Exchange

    For me that pretty well sums it up.

    Joe

    I like Hartmann, too.

    He has a compulsion about interviewing Ayn Randites that is a little intense, but I generally find him to be thoughtful and humane.

    The Flakey stuff that Anne O Dyne didn't like doesn't come off so strong when you hear him talking. 'Mostly Harmless' (Don't Panic) .. But he's well-informed and makes interesting connections. That's a good start for me.

    Bob

    Comments are now showing up in bold font. Is this an intentional change?

    Nothing looks any different to me.

    E-mail SuperG at the tech support addy (on the sidebar). Tell him your operating system and browser.

    Leanan, it is Internet Explorer. All comments are now in bold but your links and blocks up top are still normal. But in Firefox everything is still the same. It is an IE problem.

    Ron P.

    Explotier is always screwing up----
    We nned software companies making these things, rather than legal firms.

    IE7 here, same prob...

    On a related note:

    Web citizens trying to kill Internet Explorer 6

    Some Web designers are staging an online revolt against an old version of Microsoft's Internet Explorer browser, which they say is hampering the ability of the Web to move forward in a cool and interactive way.

    The designers say Internet Explorer 6, which was released in 2001 and since has been updated twice by Microsoft Corp., is crippling the Internet's potential and slowing down the online experience. They also blame IE 6 for giving webmasters a collective headache, because they have to write special "hacks" into Web code to accommodate an outmoded browser.

    An estimated 15 to 25 percent of people still use IE 6 as their portal to the Internet, according to two Web monitors.

    Hack away...

    Use a different browser.

    Ron's right - it's an IE thing. I always use Firefox, but just fired up IE8 to check, and sure enough, all the comments are bolded...

    Looks fine in Chrome too.

    Now back to normal.

    First European, Spanish Commercial satellite up well and transmits photographs
    Deimos Space
    CEO is Pedro Duque, the first Spanish astronaut.
    The Spanish aerospace engineering company DEIMOS Space and the Remote Sensing Laboratory of the University of Valladolid (LATUV) have founded the new company DEIMOS Imaging for the design, implementation, operation, and commercial exploitation of a complete Earth Observation space system in Valladolid (Spain).

    Good news from a country in the long siesta of Summer and in the midst of a tremendous financial crisis.

    Good news indeed.
    I only hope, they do not decide to fly to the moon. If so, they should really care about how filming the setting of the Spanish flag on the ground. On the US pictures (the originals have been lost by NASA anyway) from 1968 one can observe the flag waving in the wind... although there is no atmosphere on the moon. That was just one fauxpas in this Hollywood soapoper.

    It was 1969.

    And the flag was not "waving in the wind".

    Please, not the "moon hoax" nuttiness. The flag was waving because the astronauts were twisting the pole to drive it into the ground.

    The flag was waving because the astronauts were attaching Obama's REAL birth certificate to it, there on the Hollywood set (where they filmed Capricorn One!). That's also where they planned for baby Obama to install socialism in America when he grew up. And it's where they cooked up the global warming hoax. True story!

    The flag was waving because the astronauts were attaching Obama's REAL birth certificate to it

    Thats a good one. But I remember the controversy when it was first decided to put the flag there. They added some sort of bent thingy to make the flag look like it was waving in the wind, when in fact it was stationary -but crooked in a vacuum. It was important to make it look right!

    Now I know the TROOTH, Obama was born on The Moon!

    Look, I would sooner believe in abiotic oil theory than go along with the whole Apollo hoax. There never was a moon landing. It is just plain nonsense. There are too many irregularites and the whole notion is bonkers in the first place. I know it must dent the pride of many Americans, but Super Man got to the moon first. Really! Man on the moon, please! Call matron, she'll sedate you..

    (just for Ron P, I include a smiley face. Here it is ;)

    Euro,you do have a problem don't you?

    A few day's ago it was Australians who were totally stupid on the grounds of an extended helicopter evacuation of a swine flu patient to over extended hospital facilities.

    Now you are on to the moon "hoax".

    Are you simply a troll?

    I think he's a Yank, trying to make the 'continent' look silly.

    It's working.

    Are you simply a troll?

    I'm starting to think so. Euro, mend your ways, or go away.

    Consumer credit falls sharply

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Consumer credit fell in June for the fifth straight month, as widespread unemployment curbed spending, a government report said Friday.

    Total consumer borrowing sank a seasonally adjusted $10.3 billion, or 4.9%, to $2.503 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. The report measures how much debt consumers have outstanding.

    Economists predicted a decline in total borrowing of $5 billion in June, according to a consensus survey from Briefing.com.

    They were expecting a decline of $5 billion, but got $10 billion.

    I am profoundly baffled by the question of why anyone gives any creedence at all to any prediction made by an economist. You could do just as well by consulting a tarot reader or your friendly local psychic ...

    Wrong. Economists are outstanding at predictions...............just take the opposite message.

    Well, yeah ... But half the time they're off in one direction, and the other half it's the other direction. Which one do you you pick? (If they're off in equal amounts, the statisticians would say "Bullseye!")

    way OT, but a bleepin' outrage
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zr69bhccD-Q

    Hello TODers,

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/us/politics/08obama.html
    -----------------------------------------
    Obama Says Economy Is ‘Pointed in Right Direction’
    -----------------------------------------
    [insert your sarcastic response here as desired]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/business/economy/08charts.html?hpw
    ---------------------
    Off the Charts
    In Last Decade, a Lack of Job Growth in the Private Sector

    For the first time since the Depression, the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period. The total number of jobs has grown a bit, but that is only because of government hiring...
    -------------------------
    Meanwhile, US pop. has grown during the last ten years, and many more have moved to Food Stamps [now 1 in 9] and other ways to survive...

    IMO, I find this as just another confirmation of Jay Hanson's Thermo/Gene Collision and Richard Duncan's Olduvai Re-Equalizing [links below for any TOD newbies]:

    http://www.warsocialism.com/thermogenecollision.pdf
    ---------------------
    If you were born after 1960, you will probably die of violence, starvation or contagious disease...

    1. Fifteen years, plus or minus ten years, is when I estimate anarchy will reign in the United States. Please note that I do not advocate anarchy. Indeed, anarchy is the worst possible future. However, our government was not designed to solve social problems and will be utterly helpless in the face of unfolding biophysical law-driven events.
    ---------------------
    published in 2007, so adding 15 years gives 2025 +/- 10 years. His prediction window is thus 2015-2035. Let's hope that our unfolding history does not ultimately make Jay to be proven as an optimist. :(

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5419
    -----------------
    Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan

    Abstract
    This study is based on: (1) historic population and energy data from 1965 to 2008 and (2) backup studies by several scientists. The Olduvai Theory is explained by disaggregating the World into the U.S., the OECD nations, and the non-OECD nations standards of living (SL). The U.S. SL peaked in 1973 (Figure 1). The World SL rapidly increased from 2000 to 2007 (Figure 2). This increase was caused by just a few non-OECD nations (Figure 3). The OECD SL peaked in 2005 (Figure 4). The Olduvai Theory shows each SL curve trending toward the same average SL value that the World had in 1930 (Figure 5).
    --------------------
    Will most 'Murkans gladly and peacefully give up their SUVs & Big screen TVs to enjoy a postPeak Bangladeshi lifestyle?

    Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

    Obama Says Economy Is ‘Pointed in Right Direction’
    -----------------------------------------
    [insert your sarcastic response here as desired]

    'Kay!

    JUST SAY NO!
    YOU WORK FOR US!
    EAT MORE LEFTIES!

    1. Fifteen years, plus or minus ten years, is when I estimate anarchy will reign in the United States.

    A LOATHSOME thing to say.... And I agree 100%.

    Oops! excuse my silly brainfart math mistake: "published in 2007, so adding 15 years gives 2025 +/- 10 years. His prediction window is thus 2015-2035."

    Correction: published in 2007, so adding 15 years gives 2022 +/- 10 years. His prediction window is thus 2012-2032.

    Just because Jay Hanson or Duncan predicted something doesn't mean it is going to happen. They are not infallible. Didn't Duncan predict that we will have permanent world wide blackouts starting in 2007?

    The current economic crisis was caused by the consumer hitting a wall; the consumer can no longer borrow more money to finance consumption. So a lot of production capacity that was built to meet debt financed demand is no longer needed. This is a classic case of debt deflation which becomes inevitable when debt grows faster than income. People losing their jobs and ending up on food stamps during a period of debt deflation has nothing to do with thermo-gene collision or Olduvai gorge.

    Will most 'Murkans gladly and peacefully give up their SUVs & Big screen TVs to enjoy a postPeak Bangladeshi lifestyle?

    And why would the American lifestyle reduce to Bangladeshi level? This country has a much larger resource to population ratio, a much bigger and sophisticated industrial and talent base and a culture and a religion that is now much more adaptable to changing circumstances.

    Hello Suyog,

    Thxs for your reply. Your Quote:"Just because Jay Hanson or Duncan predicted something doesn't mean it is going to happen. They are not infallible."

    Of course, no disagreement from me, but you have to admit that unless ALL the current trendlines radically shift towards a new paradigm--> the probability of their predictions being future-validated, plus the dire predictions of countless others, seems to be increasing daily.

    Also, Jay and all the other so-called Doomers, would just love to see the world come together, then act together, to wholeheartedly prevent the worst; nobody in their right mind wants mind-boggling levels of machete' moshpits or even worse to happen. But IMO, they are also being very frank, honest, and truly realistic in believing that this global 'group hug, then singing of kumbayaa' will not happen. I cite the adoption failures of the ASPO Oil Depletion Protocol and Kyoto Protocols among those examples.

    Jay has posted repeatedly that he would be delighted if global action and change was robust and ongoing, but instead, we only seem to be accelerating ever faster towards the Overshoot Cliff.

    For example, since the Malthusian Principle was clearly explained over two hundred years ago: the World did not act to solve the problems of hunger, starvation, crime, corruption, elevated specie extinction, resource depletion, war, and much more, while on the cheap energy and resource upslope-->what makes you think we will do even better while on the FF & other resource downslope?

    Recall the recent newslinks by the UN FAO that they are becoming increasingly pessimistic about feeding the one billion plus that are malnourished daily, and US foodbanks lamenting that they are being overwhelmed by citizen requests for additional aid. The coming water shortages will really send people out of their minds, IMO.

    In the aggregate, human Overshoot & Collapse will be no different than an old, half-blind, arthritic cheetah realizing that he/she cannot anymore speedily pursue the gazelles and impalas it requires to stay alive. Such is life...

    How can Anarchy reign? isn't that oxymoronic!!

    LoL!

    Political propagandists have certainly painted the word with a very black brush. By removing the very word, or its eligibility, from any discussion on how we manage our lives, they have in fact framed the argument so that hierarchical modes of government are the only consideration. Even people who talk of revolution use the propagandist meaning of the word "anarchy" and so restrict their own thoughts on how people should manage their lives.

    "The word "anarchy" is often used by non-anarchists as a pejorative term, intended to connote a lack of control and a negatively chaotic environment. However, anarchists still argue that anarchy does not imply nihilism, anomie, or the total absence of rules, but rather an anti-statist society that is based on the spontaneous order of free individuals in autonomous communities." -- Wikipedia

    No doubt one of the repercussions of "overshoot" will be that what's left of the eco-system will be unable to maintain parasitic, unproductive, hierarchical systems and so anarchy (hopefully in the sense of above) will dominate, if not reign. :)

    Anarchists unite!

    http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5765QH20090807
    ----------------------
    Angry Americans disrupt town-hall healthcare talks
    ----------------------
    IMO, just wait until they are told there is just not enough food & water, electricity, or FFs to go around. When people's houses start getting flooded with sewage backflows until it flows outside onto the streets [ala Zimbabwe], I expect the 'Murkans to go nuts.

    Let's hope [but I am highly pessimistic] that 0bama soon tries to get proactive and get ahead of the crowd by going to full-on Peak Outreach and Optimal Overshoot Decline strategies. Need I mention WT's ELM & ELP?

    Bob;
    These are not spontaneous outbursts. This is the new RNC strategy.. it's a Top-down game, planned, coached and supported by the spin meisters to frame the debate to keep any Public Health Policy developments at bay.

    Ultimately, it's the big Insurers and the Pharm co's that really stand to lose if any of the Public Options come through.. and those who receive their campaign support.

    I'm pretty convinced this is 'staged community theater'.

    Best,
    Bob

    No question about it Bob...

    the same tactic employed by the hired "protesters" banging on the windows during the infamous Florida recount back in 2000.

    I wouldn't be surprised if some members of this latest goon squad in Florida for the town hall meetings were veteran goons from the Florida recount...

    Here are some of the KKKarl Rove wannabees in all their glory:

    http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/blfloridagopmob.htm

    And I just saw some news that a Fox reporter was finding that some of these rabble-rousers were not FROM the districts where they were Fracassing..

    http://thinkprogress.org/2009/08/04/gene-green-townhall/
    Video Clips at the link..

    Fox’s local Houston affiliate reporter, Duarte Geraldino, reported that he talked to the participants and found that “some attendees admit they don’t live in the district.” How did they get there? Geraldino noted “an internet campaign” by far right activists urging their allies to attend and heckle Democratic Representatives.

    KIRK
    (continuing)
    But we haven't run out of history
    just yet.
    (remembers)
    Your father quoted Hamlet: he
    called the future - "the
    undiscovered country"...

    SPOCK
    I always assumed Hamlet meant
    death.

    KIRK
    Gorkon thought the undiscovered
    country might mean something else -
    another kin of life. People can
    be very frightened of change. I
    know I was.

    Star Trek Six - The Undiscovered Country
    Nicholas Meyer & Denny Martin Flinn

    Jokhul,

    I fear there may be an element of truth in your"not spontaneous outbursts".

    But it sure doesn't take long for copycat behavior to spread,especially if it's fun,allows you to thumb your nose at the establishment,and maybe even legal.

    The pubs took long enough to adopt the technique-I seem to remember doing something similar a couple of times myself way back when,although I was never a serious activist.

    But I didn't mind joining in if the action was local and didn't interfere with something mopre important-such as loafing in my canoe with a hot yuong blossom.

    Of course if SHE was into the activist scene...we ACTIVATED!

    Krugman wrote about this. He thinks it's not just rent-a-mobs, like the ones that disrupted the Florida recount. These people are really angry, and they are crossing lines the rent-a-mobs never did.

    He thinks these healthcare mobs are racially motivated, like the "birthers." They don't actually know much about what Obama is proposing; they are reacting to who he is, not what he's doing.

    How Is America Going To End?

    Your task was simple: Browse through a list of 144 potential apocalypses and choose up to five that seem most likely to wipe the United States off the map. As of Wednesday night, 60,020 readers had submitted their visions of the end of America

    http://www.slate.com/id/2224425/

    The results of the reader poll are in, and Peak Oil came in second. The partisan breakdowns are interesting. Peak Oil was 10th among Republicans right behind "Obama as God".

    The graph was fun too. The hive mind has nailed how PO is linked to other impending disasters. The more bizarre clusters of conspiracies like "Obama is God" are interesting to look at too.

    Dimetri Orlov on Guns and Butter radio show
    http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/52976

    Sometimes you need to look at life from a different angle:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-lifetime-under-the-knife/...

    Cheers,
    Paul

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iNPsHlgkWi7_zvsMNyCHU...
    ---------------------------------
    Millions in Nepal face food shortages: UN

    KATHMANDU — Millions more people in Nepal are suffering severe food shortages after a "sharp and sustained decline in food security" in recent years, the United Nations warned Friday.

    The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) said 3.4 million Nepalese people had become "highly to severely food insecure" due to sharp food price rises and the 2008-09 winter drought, the worst in 40 years.

    "In recent years, Nepal has experienced a sharp and sustained decline in food security," the WFP said in a report released here Friday.

    "Compared to neighbouring countries and indeed countries around the world, Nepal's food security situation has suffered considerably over the past three years."
    --------------------------
    Recall my prior posts on Nepal, and how difficult and energy intensive it is for them to import vital energy and other items at sea-level, then move it inland great distances and up daunting upslopes to high elevations.

    Hopefully those living at high elevations in the US far from a seaport are considering the fixed logistics and physics of their location. Getting imported FFs & I-NPKS from Houston to farms and towns high in the Rockies or Great Tetons may be similar to the Nepalese situation.

    Also, just in case you TODers were wondering just how long has the UN WFP has been working in Nepal to permanently solve their growing population problem:

    http://southasia.oneworld.net/Article/nepal-has-homespun-its-food-crisis
    ---------------------
    Nepal has homespun its food crisis

    ..WFP has been working in Nepal for 41 years and last year it fed nearly two million Nepalis...
    ------------------------------
    My guess is the UN WFP has never heard of Dr. Garrett Hardin nor Dr. Albert Bartlett:

    http://www.garretthardinsociety.org/info/quotes.html
    ---------------------------------
    Whenever a community consists of too many people for the resources available to it, heavy mortality can then actually improve the conditions of life for the lucky survivors.

    What features of your daily life do you expect to be improved by a further increase in population?
    ---------------------------------

    "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."— Albert A. Bartlett

    Consider if instead of sending ever-growing amounts of food, fuel, seeds, and I-NPKS to Nepal over the past 41 years, if the WFP had gradually sent ever-shrinking amounts of the above, but then included huge amounts of Peak Outreach teachers, condoms, the Pill, and cash incentives for sterilization, plus cash incentives to protect and restore the Nepal ecology.

    I bet they would not have any of the problems at the scale they presently are sadly enduring if this had been done over the past 41 years.

    http://www.populstat.info/Asia/nepalc.htm
    -----------------------
    41 years ago [1968] Nepal pop = 10,652,000
    -----------------------

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nepal
    -----------------------
    With an area of 147,181 square kilometres (56,827 sq mi) and a population of approximately 30 million, Nepal is the world's 93rd largest country by land mass[3] and the 41st most populous country.
    ----------------------

    I completely agree except for the cash part. We as a species need to decouple the artificial need/want for money. Otherwise you should be one of the guys making policy.

    Whenever a community consists of too many people for the resources available to it, heavy mortality can then actually improve the conditions of life for the lucky survivors.

    Ghe European Great Famine of 1315-17 resulted in heavy mortality. The Black Death a few decades later reduced the population between 30 and 60% in various regions, with some areas of France having lower populations today. Shortly thereafter was the Rennaissance.

    Which only the elite really benefitted from anyway.