Possibly not working...altho another 'anonymous source'...

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/bp_now_says_to...

BP says top kill has not stopped Gulf oil leak and now considering other options
By The Times-Picayune
May 29, 2010, 1:48PM
A BP executive says the company has yet to stop the oil flowing into the Gulf of Mexico and is considering other ways to plug the leak.
The Associated Press
In this Wednesday, May 26, 2010, photo provided by the U.S. Coast Guard, the mobile offshore drilling unit Q4000 holds position directly over the damaged Deepwater Horizon blowout preventer as crews work to plug the wellhead using a technique known as "top kill."
A source told The Times-Picayune that officials would announce the failure of the top kill option at a 4 p.m. Saturday briefing in Robert .

Prof. Goose asked me to repeat his comment:

A few things:

1. The Oil Drum is a pretty special place. We strive to maintain a high signal to noise ratio in our comment threads. Short, unengaging comments, or comments that are off topic, are likely to be deleted without notice. (to be clear--on point humor and levity, more than welcome.)

If you see a problematic comment USE THE COMMENT MODERATION SYSTEM--see the "Flag as inappropriate" and (?) beside it? Learn more there. If you see comments that are questionable after you've done that (that aren't being removed), let us know at the eds email address.

It is up to this community to enforce the norms we have established here (a high signal to noise ratio), keep. it. up.

Our guide to commenting at TOD can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/special/guidelines . Please check it out if you are unfamiliar with it, but it is essentially 1) citations welcome, 2) be kind to others, and 3) be nice to the furniture.

2. We have gotten a lot of queries whether this bump in traffic is adding costs to keep the site functioning. Truth is, we are incurring added expenses from these events. It is also true that we try not to beg from you very often as we are not the types to bother you with constant queries.

That being said, if you are inclined to help out, your support is always welcome and very much appreciated. To those who have already given, thank you very much.

You can find the donate button in the top left hand corner of the main page.

3. If you have come here to vet your plan to kill the well, understand that you will be queried on whether or not you have read the other 10 previous comment threads and all the myriad plans that have already been run by the kind folks in this room; if you have actually read all 10 comment threads and still think your plan has legs, well, then maybe yours really is the one that will save the Gulf of Mexico.

This is not to say that well considered questions about current attempts and modifications to those attempts are not welcome; they are. But try to place them in context and in what's actually going on, as opposed to your MacGyver dream solution where you have a 10 megaton bomb, an ice pick, and Commander Spock at your side.

4. Also, if you're looking for live chat and are IRC capable, go to freenode, the channel is #theoildrum

(google MIRC and download it; Hit the lightening bolt and fill in your info; select the server as "freenode" (it is in the server list), hit connect; when connected type /join #theoildrum)

The need to gain a plugging agent to INCREASE the pressure at wh (~2300 LOSS). I don't think frac is at all a problem. the mangled mass LMRP is a problem for anyone, including multipule release points in it.

I posted the following on May 2nd. My fear is that I was right. "As bright and knowledgeable as the posters to this site are, and I am impressed almost daily, I don't think any of us can really get a handle on how big a deal this gulf spill is and it's ramifications for the future. I fear this is the blackest of black swan events, and it will affect much more than the gulf and atlantic coasts. The result of man's hubris and misplaced attempt to control his environment. I will send off a prayer today. I'm not thinking that this will end well."

To be serious for a moment and only a moment. From the Valdez experience animals lived for not more than six days after ingesting crude oil. Most biologists recommend euthanasia immediately. The clean up with solvents did more harm to the natural bacteria that ingests the crude. The problem is we can't just let it fix itself like a wounded tree. In the end we do more harm and that is hard for people to except. The real tragedy is, we will drill more and more offshore, we have to. The easy oil is gone and if you don't believe that, why are we mining crude oil in Canada? Why are we drilling a mile deep in the Gulf? Why are we fracturing shale with water supplies to pump oil for a year and then move to the next?
With oil priced at 147$ why wasn't more being delivered? Why are people talking of drilling even more dangerous locations like the Gulf salt domes that contain 3-4 billion barrels of oil? Just ask yourself are you willing to let people starve for like of oil for fertilizers, pesticides, diesel fuel ? We need cheap energy to feed 7 billion people no ifs ands or buts. When gasoline hits 4$ a gallon due to loss of deep offshore drilling people will beg to drill the most dangerous places possible you can bet on it with your life and the life of the planet. The gulf could be a giant pool of oil and we would ask for more. I think Alan would agree.

It appears that the flow of oil and gas is arrested while mud is being pumped into the BOP. The mud is heavier than water, but if water were pumped into the BOP at higher pressure from the rig on the surface, maybe the same pressure could be maintained in the BOP, enough to prevent the flow of oil. In that case, water could be pumped continuously, until a relief well stops the flow. Would that be feasible?

I would like to know from the petroleum experts here about the nature of the undersea reservoir at Macondo. Is it possible that the pre-drilling analysis was faulty and that the predicted pressure of the hydrocarbons was underestimated?

Or perhaps, was the ratio of gas to oil underestimated?

It seems that this well has fooled the experts.

Could they use lead - pellets, say or powder - in a junk shot? Would the temperature in the BOP be high enough to melt or at least soften it? Would it then form a dense sheet or mould around the leaks?

Question for the experts.

If the kill lines can flow 50,000-80,000 BPD of high viscosity mud, can they be used in reverse to conduct a similar or higher flow rate of the less viscous oil to the surface?

That would reduce the pressure under the BOP due to friction losses in the well, reduce the leak rate into the gulf and accelerate the reduction in formation pressure.

I haven't seen this idea mentioned elsewhere so here goes.

A device that clamps around the bolted flange at the base of the riser pipe. It seals below the flange with an expandable collar. Above the flange or level with it has a side outlet with valve--this pipes to surface or just lets pressure/oil out if needed. Above the side outlet is a shear that cuts the riser (support riser first)(very heavy guides on each side of the blade) . After the cut, the shear could then be bolted down in place, or maybe a cap swings in from the side (very heavy pivot design) and gets bolted down. Oil goes out side valve.

The overall device is hinged vertically so it opens like a clamshell into two halves. In this configuration it is moved into place. The two halves close around the bolted flange at the bottom of the riser, and seal with bolts on both the hinged side and the previously wide open side. Seal lower collar. Attach relief pipe. Shear or cut the riser. Swing lid in and bolt it down.

Isn't it time that BP and government realize that there is a fair chance there won't be a cessation of flow soon? Giving the workers respirators seems like a no brainer. There is a good containment technique. It's called pneumatic oil containment. Google it or look here http://helpgulfofmexiconow.blogspot.com/

On a previous thread someone had wondered whether the fireboats may have contributed to the capsizing of the DWH platform. Was there any way that the platform might have been saved so all of this NG/oil would still be burning up rather than spewing in the GOM?

I've been lurking/following for just a few weeks. I found this site via the comments section of a blog post on the disaster on another news site. I'm impressed by the level of discussion and have learned a lot.

I have a stronger than average (which is not saying much for Americans these days...) science education and a big THANK YOU to everyone in the industry and with engineering and similar backgrounds who continue to provide analogies a decently bright layman can follow.

With a basic understanding of the pressures involved at these depths and the presumable pressure coming from the blow-out, it was immediately evident to me once a geyser was admitted (for a couple of days there there "wasn't a leak" - remember that?) that this was a MAJOR disaster, and I have to say that most of my friends came to the same immediate conclusion.

I have linked to this site and SkyTruth as sources of data and prespective for the general public since lord knows the MSM has (I would swear intentionally it's been such a horrid job) covering this. A couple of weeks back CNN had the weatherman (?!?!) assuring the public he was 100% sure the Top Hat was going to work (I was 99% it wouldn't). Most MSM graphics make it look like this is taking place in 40 feet of water, which is I think where some of the wackier layman ideas come from in part. Is the battleship or giant screw a significantly crazier idea than the top kill, top hat, different sized hat etc etc? 0.000000001% is better than 0% plus the risk of making things way worse. Obviously the experts have had 0% success in either predicting that this crisis was possible (I would say it was inevitable) or have come up with a way to solve it within a month or two.

Maybe one of these 'wacky' ideas, interpreted very broadly, could be tweaked in a workable way?

Any decent 'journalist' should be contacting people here to add context for the public, instead of repeating the crud BP's PR people put out.

It seems fairly well criminal to be telling the public that a method that has never been successfully tried even in lower depths (or even on land?) with a live spurt has a 70% chance of working.

Conversations w/ friends over a beer made it clear that a lot of the general public didn't figure the 'top kill' would work. One reason for this is that we figured it'd be standard procedure for the industry to have these devices rigged up already if it was thought they'd function as a first (second... third...) resort. You don't start building a fire engine after the fire starts. It's been clear to me that the relief wells (or kill wells or whatever the correct terminology would be in this case) were the only reasonably workable solution, and everything else has been very cynical window dressing.

Keep up the great work folks.

Is it possible to glue or firmly attach magnets to rubber pieces to temporarily close the hole?
If you plunge the injection pipe (assuming it is not magnetic)deep enough(more than 5000 feet),can it work ?

I saw this question was asked in an earlier thread, but I don't think it was answered: Is there a site where you can see ALL of the live video feeds; and is there a map or diagram somewhere that shows the layout down there so I can figure out what I'm looking at?

Thanks. (Not looking for someone else to "use the Google" for me;-) will continue to search and will post the answer if i find it)

Could it be helpful to the current control efforts to apply some sort of refrigeration equipment directly on (or inside) the BOP, with the intent of making the flow thicker, slower and possibly forming the same kind of methane ice crystals that effectively stopped up the opening at the top of the large containment dome? This effect caused the failure of the dome, but if it was applied much lower, at the BOP and sea floor area would it possibly assist current efforts (top kill and junk shots)? In addition to the high gas content leading to significant methane crystal formation, I've also read recently that the crude oil itself is coming up at an unexpectedly "cool" temperature already (180 degrees F, I believe it was) given the relatively deep formation. With an additional "push" from freezing/cooling equipment of some kind, the resulting methane ice crystals might be a welcome effect inside the BOP at this point - perhaps stopping it up or at least slowing it down, like with the containment dome?

Are there workable techniques for placing a BOP on top of a BOP at 1 mile underwater while the bottom BOP has petroleum gushing out of the top of it? I realize that BOP #2 is essentially a straight-thru pipe (until it is closed). But it seems to me that a LOT of downard force would be required to counteract the upward pressure of the oil, even to position the BOP#2 over BOP#1. Additionally, It seems to me that they'd have to saw off the riser to a clean vertical pipe and essentially open the full 21 inch diameter to the ocean and the flow could increase massively at that point.

Newbie here . . . been lurking for a few days now. Wonderful to see all the serious & well informed discussion on this site. I'm not an engineer (failed freshman calculus), so became one of those damnable lawyers (happily retired now, so you can tell all the lawyer jokes you wish!). Did have a thought, however, re: an approach to increase the resistance in the BOP/riser so that the mud has a better chance of actually making it down the hole. The wall thickness of the riser just above the top of the BOP is obviously sufficient to withstand the current pressure being exerted upon it, except where holes/cracks have been opened as a result of the bending/crimping that occured during the sinking of the DH. How about cutting a slot in one side of the riser below the kink and another equivalent slot 180degrees opposite the first. Slot width TBD by what's possible without destroying the structural integrity of the riser at that point. Then insert through one of the slots a triangular piece of steel of sufficient strength and carry it through the riser bore and out through the other slot. As the steel insert is progressively run through the riser bore, it will cover an increasing amount of the area of the bore, thereby progressively increasing the back pressure at that point. Once a sufficient amount of area has been "blocked off," perhaps another series of junk shots could complete the process & mud could be pumped down the hole without the problem of it escaping through the riser faster than it can be pumped down the hole. OK, I know this suggestion is coming from an engineering idiot and, worse yet, a retired lawyer, but it may just stand a better chance of success than the giant rotating battleship screw approach!!! Flame away!

Although all the newbie ideas for fixing the leak are mostly out of left field, it would seem, and few if any actually have any merit; but as long as we have their attention it might be worthwhile to point out that one somewhat effective way to actually do something to fix this situation IN THE LONG RUN is to reflect on how you/we/they waste or take for granted their use of oil each day.

As a confirmed pessimist, I fail to see how we can get people in the long run to care enough about more than just themselves to focus on solving our impending peak oil problems. Still, as a hopeless idealist, I can't quite get myself to tell myself that I just don't care anymore, either, and let it all go down the craphole without at least wondering if ideally there is anything that can be done.

I've always been aware of it, but in these past weeks since the oil leak I've been even more sorrowful about the number of cars that are jamming the highways idling and wasting gas as I'm stuck in rush hour--most with only one person in them (my own vehicle included). I think of all the energy that was required to manufacture one of those vehicles just so the person who "owns" it (actually probably the bank owns it and the driver's just overextended his credit) can carry his butt around in a new, cushy manner. At least I am driving a near 20-year-old vehicle.

It pains me to see the number of recycling bags I fill with plastic each week as a result of my five-member family: bottles, packing materials, containers, you name it, all based on petroleum in their manufacture. At least they are marked for recycling, I think to myself, although I really don't know if they ever really make it to the recycling plant. For all I know they could be dumped into a landfill. I wonder how much I am actually wasting. I got a new computer mouse in the mail today; I tossed out a whole bunch of cardboard and plastic for just that one mouse. I try to think of a better way it could have been shipped to me and am not sure I can think of any.

I think a lot of people touting conservation (or "sustainability," the young people call it these days; back in my day it was "ecology") are rather pollyannish and at times condescending in the way they attempt to convince people of the need to think about oil and related resources--a certain "holier than thou" attitude that turns people off. On the other hand, we have a bunch of self-centered and, may I be so bold to suggest it, stupid consumers who have no real way to grasp the kinds of problems we're talking about, and no real interest in doing so even if they could.

I am not sure what the solution is, but I continue to ponder.

41,760 barrels of oil per day leaking out into the GOM.

A BP technician today says (off the record) that they have been able to only keep 10% of the mud in the well.

Suttes says that they were pumping 65-70 barrels of mud per minute into the well

65 barrels per minute in
7 barrels per minute staying in
58 barrels per minute leaking out (mud)

turn off the mud and

58 barrels per minute of oil/gas leaking out (minimum - oil/gas flows much more quickly)

at that pressure the volume of oil/gas coming out is about 50/50

29 barrels per minute of gas + 29 barrels per minute of oil

29 barrels per minute of oil X 60 minutes per hour X 24 hours per day

= 41,760 barrels of oil per day (minimum)

Moderators,

I'd like to second a motion from an earlier comment that ALL suggestions for how to control or kill the well be relegated to a special post. Your kind efforts to keep these suggestions from overflowing have met head on with human nature. Since we can't change human nature, if we could there would be no need for TOD, let's at least contain the comments in an area where interested members can work together to focus on solutions.

And a reminder for those folks with solutions, there is already an established system for submitting them to the Deepwater Horizon Response Team. You can do this here:

Deepwater Horizon Suggestions

An idea submitted here will never see the light of day. But sending it to the Deepwater Horizon Response Team will at least ensure it gets a quick look. Over 7,800 people have already submitted ideas.

Bumping a great idea put forth by PriorityX in the previous thread. Anyone who has time can research some of the issues and provide quality comments on TOD.

First off, thanks to all of the industry participants. Your detailed knowledge is what makes this board worth reading.

I have a couple of questions:

1.) If flowing mud at least keeps most of the oil down, is there any reason why the can't do it for months, until the relief well is in? I know it consumes vast amounts of mud. But hey, the entire offshore industry is shut down, so there should be lots available. And as for expense, I think any expense on BP's part is perfectly acceptable. If the expense of cleaning up this fiasco becomes a corporate death penalty for BP, then that's life.

2.) Does the mud contain anything that represents an environmental hazard comparable to an equal volume of oil? [Note to the guy who suggested mercury: the goal is to make the problem better, not worse.]

In the category of "Hit them where it hurts", from Morningstar.com:

While BP's latest "top kill" effort to stop oil flowing from the Macondo well may take a few more days to determine level of success, estimates for total oil recovery costs and potential liabilities continues to rise. We expect to increase our original estimate of $4 billion-$11 billion for BP's total spill-related costs, to account for higher spill containment costs, potential liabilities and civil penalties. BP's oil spill recovery costs quickly rose again to $930 million from $760 million, as announced on May 24. This suggests daily costs rose to about $42 million per day during the four-day period beginning May 24, up from an earlier estimated daily rate of $22 million per day. Current "top kill" measures to inject drilling mud to into the blowout preventer to stop the oil flow may have added to costs. Expanded oil containment costs in the Gulf of Mexico and along shorelines and new settlements could also be factors behind the cost increase. A successful "top kill" could reduce daily oil spill recovery costs, but the costs to contain oil already spilled continues. Another 60-90 days of oil containment efforts at current daily costs could bring near-term oil spill recovery costs up to $3 billion-$4 billion. Longer term, environmental costs are exceedingly difficult to estimate, and will depend on a number of factors such as how much oil makes it to shore, and extent of the oil spread across the Gulf of Mexico. We estimate that BP could face costs of up to $5 billion, depending on the severity of the shoreline impact. Actual costs could vary from this estimate greatly, as shoreline impact remains unpredictable. Similarly, estimating potential liabilities for lost earnings to the fishing and tourism industries is challenging, but to consider a worst-case scenario, we note that the Gulf Coast fishing industry pulls in roughly $2.5 billion a year, and tourism another $1 billion-$2 billion. Determining the amount of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico remains difficult. New government estimates suggest the rate of oil leaking from the well increased to 12,000 to 19,000 barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 5,000 barrels per day. Total potential liabilities, which include civil penalties of up to $4,300 for every barrel of oil leaked into the Gulf, could be up to tens of billions of dollars, and will take several years to resolve.

This and no mention of the loss in market cap the last month.

Over the last few weeks, this disaster has done more to affect my state of mind than anything else I can rememember in forty-something years of life. I can recall Exxon Valdez vaguely but that was a long time ago in a different world without internet and where news trickled through in fits and starts. Sitting here (and that's one of the worst things, just sitting, unable to help) and watching the oil spill and spill and spill out of that damn riser and the BOP, knowing the decisions that were made that likely contributed to this, having some idea about how much oil is already out there, seeing the picture of the wildlife affected, watching the size of the lake of oil grow and grow, and watching attempt after attempt after attempt fail and fail and fail... it is thoroughly, numbingly, body-and-soul alteringly, depressing.

I feel like I have to load up the video to watch the plume or I'm not doing what I can as a human being lucky enough to have been born onto this precious earth. I can do nothing to help: I have no science or engineering background and I'm thousands of miles away from the disaster and all I can do is sit, watch, and understand with an even greater degree of clarity that this is going to become much, much, much worse before it ever starts to get better.

Here's an actual science-y question from me, and I'm likely to go back to lurking:

I've read a lot on here in the past week about how quickly the drilling 'mud' and well debris etc might be eroding pipe at the pressure and friction created by the flow. Now, that's metal pipe designed to take some abuse for this purpose.

Given that, how long is anyone expected shredded rubber or a golf ball to effectively plug a hole? Even if you get lucky and something sticks, won't it quickly be eroded to the point where its lodging position won't have integrity? Not even the whole object needs to be eroded, just a fiarly small %.

This was the part of the 'junk shot' that never made sense to me.

This from the DailyGros: Sources have uncovered secret internal emails within BP discussing the company’s fears surrounding the use of a so called “junk shot” to stop the leaking Gulf of Mexico well, estimated by some experts to be spewing more volume than the total world population flushing toilets in unison. The junk shot uses a variety of different size particles which include rope and other fibrous materials in an attempt to clog the well. Company hired private detectives have uncovered a plan hatched by PETA and their lawyers who are working on late night commercials aimed at felines and their owners worldwide to exploit the possible “junk shot” failure. They believe it will result in massive fibrous “junk” getting into the Loop Current. Early takes of the commercials show a large cat speaking in a strong voice: “Have you ever had a hair ball? Hairballs have been linked to the BP well. If you or anyone else you know has had or ever seen a hairball call the law offices of Cheetah and Fish. Do not delay. Our lawyers will get you your fair share." After hearing of these efforts BP is now considering canceling the junk shot. It has been suggested that BP use materials which are less harmful such as macaroni and cheese. However, concerns are that the sea life might react to it the same as children worldwide, resulting in an unprecedented revolt especially by larger species that will boycott fisherman hooks and further threaten the already reeling industry. Government experts have finally submitted an alternative solution. Due to the oil glut and the need to expand the petroleum reserve, the plan is to wall off the Gulf and create a massive oil storage facility. The plan calls for using almost half the country’s unemployed workers. Although the cost is great, it is probably somewhat less than the Medicare liability. The EU has offered to provide low interest loans to the United States if needed. A BP spokesman said : ”We value the input of the government experts who bring a level of expertise not available within the oil industry.” Disney and Dream Works have been commissioned to examine potential entertainment possibilities.

'As per the plan, the rig was supposed to be drilling the second of the two wells planned. But it faced oil spills over two fronts: one at the well head and another at the surface offshore. The wells are located in lease G-32306 over the prospect.'
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/macondoprospect/

~ 'Well A last year and Well B this year are part of the plan.'
http://www.gomr.mms.gov/PI/PDFImages/PLANS/29/29977.pdf

Well A was abandoned due to a hurricane, was it completed / sealed properly.

Leaks always get worse...
Perhaps no one will notice if BP keeps us watching the small leak, LOL.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4whiKQgnp4w

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/matt-simmons-tells-bloomberg-only-way-c...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/simmons-says-obama-sh...

A quantitative engineering proposal for partially obstructing the riser in order to to retain junk.

Physical objective: Insert steel rods that extend ~ 1 ft into the riser, angled upstream.

------------

I did a sanity check on Heading Out's numbers at the heads this thread: A moderate pressure drop (low tens of bar) can indeed push 16,000 bbl/day of fluid through a 0.6 in hole. Since the narrowness of this constriction removes the value of my wonderfully practical suggestion, I've edited this post to remove it.

This leaves me with a puzzle, though: If the gap is that small, and junk can be up to 1 in diameter, I would expect the flow to have been bridged and then progressively and effectively obstructed far earlier in the junk-shot process. Can anyone explain why this hasn't happened?

Hard to get continuity with the threads shut off and restarted. Just a note to

ROCKMAN

to suggest that he check my reply/request in the previous thread.

And if anyone else wishes to comment on the desirability of a PR/pressure campaign to add two more relief wells, feel free to do so here and I'll try to check back. best.

From an estimate of the flow of 1 cubic meter per sec. I get a speed of about 14 ft/sec. If I convert this to head of pressure, I get v**2/2=100ft of water(I hope my units are right). Rather than blocking the exit , it seems better to build up a head of 50 ft of mud below the BOP (assuming specific gravity of 2). Applying Bernoulli to the process and ignoring friction in the bore. We only need the average mixture above the bore bottom to be enough to stop the flow at the bore. So instead of junk at the top of the BOP, a continuing stream of something dense such as ball bearings going down the bore + mud can alter the pressure and stop the flow at the bottom. Particularly if we stop the escaping mud through the top of the BOP.

This may come as a shock to some of you, but the technical community in the oil patch is very close knit. We all know lots of people at other companies. Many of us got laid off several times over the years as companies downsized and got gobbled up.

Any idea that is actually useful will have already been suggested by someone w/ real experience in the field. All the operators have a strong interest in getting this under control and will do anything short of assuming BP's liability to assist. I'm not in Houston anymore, but I have no doubt that there's a lot of discussion of the problem among friends and colleagues. In short, every operator in GOM "has a dog in the fight".

The patch has people expert in everything you can imagine and many more things you can't. This is actually no bullshit difficult and complex. The main reason stopping it has been so slow is they don't want to make things worse.

There are ~3800 wells in GOM water deeper than 1000 ft and ~650 in water deeper than 5000 ft. When I started w/ Amoco in 1982, deepwater was 600 ft. A bunch of extremely skillful people drilled these wells over the course of almost 30 years. Ever aware that they were doing things that had never been done before and being very careful as a consequence. Now we're all getting ready to retire and will have to be replaced by children who think it's old hat because they studied it in college. Just a natural consequence of not hiring for so many years.

rhb
geophysics and assorted other stuff, almost all in support of "deepwater" exploration as defined at the time

Since it's becoming apparent that they can't stop this thing and if they continue to try, they are likely to cause even more damage, why don't they go back to trying to pump it out of the water? This could be done at different levels. One system for around the well head to collect as much as possible directly. Another system for pulling out the oil in the plumes that have formed. And another system for pulling out the oil on the surface? Got anything better to do for the next two months?

the horse and pony show continues

BP needs to show activity at the wellsite ....they are doing that.....nice feed ...coupla ROV's switching views .....makes good TV but one sentence sums it up " relief well , maybe august possibly early September"

here's how the summer will pan out...

1- Top kill --- shows good activity at wellsite ...good ROV feeds buys a week for BP

2- Junk Shot --- another feel good ....problem is they holes are bigger than the size of the bridging agents they are able to get into the kill and choke like .....you really cant block a basketball net with a tennis ball kinda deal here ...but hey shows activity and has a feel good factor here.....the monster well silenced by a few measly golf balls.

so far the public has had a good time staying glued to the leak wondering if its mud coming out or HC's.....paying close attention to the color ....again good TV for all

now we get in the part of operations where public will have a hard time looking at the feeds .....cuz the next dog and pony show will be

1- LMRP cap .......another good sounding solution but the HC's leakage will significantly increase during this process when the riser is cut .....and this will make for very bad TV viewing ....this will actually combine the leaks (rmbr BP has been clever ....no single shot exists anywhere on the MSM which shows all the leaks in a concurrent view .......its always the dang ROV on top of the BOP showing the leaking mud ).....LMRP cap will make for bad TV viewing by combining leaks into a big leak so the perspective on the leak will be better than what BP has show so far.....RMBR BAD TV this process -- but buys a week for BP

2- putting another BOP on the existing BOP ....this will make for fantastic TV viewing .....a huge piece of equipment ...many pipes and odd shapes ......beautiful TV right here .....but cannot work since there is no way BP can risk a hot approach on this ....the risk -reward ratios can never be favorable no matter how you dress the figures in this case.....there is DP string in there ...you can bet the horse and the stable BP knows where and how long...excellent TV and buys BP another week

the axis of action here is off --- the solution would be containment until the relief well is sunk .....and not reality TV for public ...the money being spent on the kill mud needs to go for skimming oil, booms, PPE for the workers and other cleanup/containment efforts.....there are atleast 20 boats involved with these horse and pony tricks at the wellsite ....thats 20 boats that could be skimming oil and deploying boom

Just passing it along:

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/bp_now_says_to...

BP says top kill has not stopped Gulf oil leak and now considering other options
By The Times-Picayune
May 29, 2010, 1:48PM

A BP executive says the company has yet to stop the oil flowing into the Gulf of Mexico and is considering other ways to plug the leak.A source told The Times-Picayune that officials would announce the failure of the top kill option at a 4 p.m. Saturday briefing in Robert .
BP is expected to announce that it will move on to its next option, known as LMRP. The procedure involves cutting off the failed, leaking riser at the top of the Lower Marine Riser Package on the blowout preventer to get a clean-cut surface on the pipe.
Then the company will install a cap with a sealing grommet that would be connected to a new riser from the Discoverer Enterprise drillship, with the hopes of capturing most of the oil and gas flowing from the well.
BP began a risky operation known as "top kill" on Wednesday. The procedure involves pumping heavy drilling mud into the crippled well in a bid to stop the oil. It's never been tried in 5,000 feet of water.
The oil spill began after the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded last month, killing 11 people. It's the worst spill in U.S. history, dumping between 18 million and 40 million gallons into the Gulf.

Random question: have any of the oil or drilling pros been watching any of the testimony from the rig crew at the Joint Investigation down in Kenner, LA? I find the testimony absolutely compelling, and I don't just mean the parts where things blow up and everything goes pitch black. I mean, it's fascinating how many genuine characters there appear to be on this rig, as well as the extent of their knowledge about this stuff. I am unabashedly a humanities/liberal arts nerd, with a huge soft-spot for science and technology. But watching this testimony, it seems like there's a ton of evidence about the states of all the various systems on the rig, about what all the diff. people were doing. But it also seems like unless you really know this stuff, you may not be able to catch anything that is out of the ordinary or unusual. So I'm just wondering if any of the pros have paid any attention to it.

The moderators on this web site need to review their approach. We agree that, despite the gravity of the situation, some levity is healthy?

So why have the SanderO posts concerning the giant screw been removed from the earlier thread (node 6518?)?? They were solid gold, brilliant, original LOL work and you just zapped 'em. Shame on you.

Suttles at press conference just now: BP is "moving on" from top kill/junk shot to LMRP.

Key words from Obama the other day " I have gone to bed and woken up each day since this happened with it being the number one issue on my mind" That was the "tea leaf" that he has been kept abreast and it is far worse than anyone has imagined. They have chosen to use BP (BP knows this) as the focal "fall guy" why they figure out what to do, which as of yet they have not. They are racing against the clock in regards to the first bad storm/hurricane which will bring all the oil still underwater and floating in large pools to the surface and then it will spread througout the gulf. Folks had better be prepared for the reality that this may end up being the worst man made caused diaster in history and for most, they will have a hard time comprehending the enormity of it and the intial and long term destruction it will casue. The potential economic impact to the united states could be upwards of 20% of annual GDP, not to mention the economic impact on the other affected bordering countries and the rest of the world. Oil markets could become very unstable very quickly because of over reaction concering production. I will say that upwards of 2-3 million jobs could be created just in US form this disaster, but they will come with health risks.

TOP KILL FAILED.......OFFICIAL FROM BP.

Regarding all liquid nitrogen based suggestions:

I'm a scientist and use a lot of LN2 in my work (macromolecular crystallography), and by a lot I mean there is a 3,000 gallon tank of it right outside my lab, and it gets refilled every 7-10 days. That tank feeds my various sample dewars and cryostreams through rigid and flexible vacuum-jacketed lines that run in the neighborhood of $400/ft.; for the 5,000 feet of it you'd need to get to the BOP, $2mil, though you could probably get a volume discount, and at this point a $2,000,000 solution would be awesome. But still, I'd only buy about 1,000 feet at first, because that's probably more than enough to tell me at what depth the vacuum jacket gets crushed.

Maybe you wouldn't need the insulated line, but my experience with the longest vacuum-jacketed line we have (~40') is that it takes 15 minutes from opening the valve before line is cooled down enough for actual liquid N2 to come out the end. An uninsulated 40' run would probably take many hours to get cold enough. An uninsulated pipe running down to the BOP would be exchanging heat with the surrounding water the whole way down; it might be months before you got anything more that nitrogen gas the same temperature as the surrounding water coming out.

Foam insulation would have the gas crushed out of it at that depth, rendering it ineffective.

Sending the whole liquid nitrogen tank to that depth raises the same issues as the vacuum-jacketed lines and submarines at that depth: it's gonna get crushed.

I'm not being snarky, just trying to point out that in addition to questions about how you would effectively use liquid nitrogen to stop the oil flow, you also have account for the fact that the liquid nitrogen just can't magically appear on site.

I have read here for 2 years, but I just joined to post this.BP should focus on getting the relief wells drilled and be honest with the public.From what I have learned here, the only chance to kill this well is from a relief well.Everything else is probably dangerous.
This is a great site, I hope to post a bit more often.Enjoy the notoriety of the moment!

Help us all, Rockman! Are we just looking at more BP hand waving? From AP: "'We're confident the job will work but obviously we can't guarantee success,' Suttles said of the new plan." Then, why didn't they go for this, if they're so confident, about two weeks or more ago? Bye the bye, to quote Lily Tomlin: "No matter how cynical I become, I just can't keep up."

BP Presser:
According to Suttle, top kill was the least risky option and that has failed, so it's onward to even more risky dog tricks and pony shows. He also said their objective is to cement this well shut. Admiral Landry is all smiley and upbeat and said everyone understands the need to keep a steady hand at the till.
Freudian slip?
I think she meant to say, "hand in the till."