Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 3, 2012

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending August 3, 36 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.6 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging just under 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.7 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.6 million barrels per day last week, up by 221 thousand per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, 453 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 457 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 71 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 369.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged 18.9 million barrels per day, down by 1.9 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged 8.7 million barrels per day, down by 4.2 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 2.8 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 3.6 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Calls to scrap ethanol mandate intensify with drought

Not going to happen in my opinion. The farm and corn lobbies will fight hard to keep that precedent from being set. They are already furiously pumping out press releases designed to downplay the impact of the drought. Keep in mind these are the lobbies that managed to keep subsidies in place for years -- even after they got their product mandated.

Re: Jeff Rubin gets Peak Oil wrong (uptop)

As usual, no discussion of actual global crude oil or net export numbers.

Basically, as global annual crude oil production virtually stopped growing in 2005, with a very slow increase in annual total liquids production (inclusive of low net energy biofuels), and as global net exports of oil (GNE) started falling with the developing countries, led by China, consuming an increasing share of a declining volume of GNE, annual global crude oil prices only doubled once, instead of twice. Jeff Rubin, like a lot of people (including yours truly), overestimated the ability of the developed countries to buy $100 oil.

Of course, in the 2004 time frame, Daniel Yergin was promising an indefinite return to $38 oil, as global production "capacity" increased at about 3%/year.

My 2¢ worth:

Available Net Exports (GNE/CNI ratio)

The following graph shows the GNE/CNI ratio (ratio of Global Net Exports* to Chindia's Net Imports**) versus Estimated post-2005 Available CNE*** (Cumulative Net Exports).

In 2005, there were 8.9 barrels of GNE for every barrel of oil that Chindia net imported.

In 2011, there were 5.3 barrels of GNE for every barrel of oil that Chindia net imported.

Except for residents of Fantasy Island, the significance of this trend would seem to be obvious.

An extrapolation of the six year 2005 to 2011 decline in the GNE/CNI ratio suggests post-2005 Available CNE of about 168 Gb.

There are about 157 net oil importing countries in the world. An extrapolation of the 2005 to 2011 data suggests that the total post-2005 supply of Cumulative Net Exports that will be available to importers other than China & India could be about 49% depleted as of the end of 2011.

*GNE = Net exports from top 33 net exporters in 2005, total petroleum liquids production less liquids consumption, BP + Minor EIA data

**Chindia's Net Imports = Total petroleum liquids production less liquids consumption, BP

***I projected the 2005 to 2011 rate of decline in the GNE/CNI ratio to estimate when the GNE/CNI ratio would theoretically equal 1.0, and I then estimated the area under the triangle, to get estimated post-2005 Available CNE of about 168 Gb.

It's a disaster that 'peak oil' is not a disaster

Interesting how some folks try to make a point by redefining aspects of a situation:

"When prices rise, this may indeed signal scarcity, but..." "But" meaning that scarcity of any vital commodity isn't always a bad thing.

"... it also provides a financial incentive to throw investment, ingenuity and effort at the problem". IOW it's a good thing to have to spend an increasing amount on developing new sources that were either too expensive to develop previous or couldn't for lack of technology to do so. And in additional to higher development costs more capex has to be invested to develop new tech that may, or may not, help the situation.

"... a high price for one commodity makes alternatives more competitive by comparison." Again, what wasn't cost competitive before now will be assuming we can afford the higher price tag.

Reminds me of the sad joke about a politician addressing the virtue of being poor: IOW it makes you appreciate having a steady minimum wage job. Or, as some say in Texas: the best thing about wearing cowboy boots is that it feels so good when you take them off. LOL.

Though some have gone to the extreme I don't recall many here using the term "disaster". But certainly a lot of chatter about many of the associated negative aspects of PO. Some of which the subject article appears to agree with in a rather oblique way IMHO.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/first-chevron-now-shells-california-refine... ?

Calls to scrap ethanol mandate intensify with drought

So who's business model gets impacted?

"Big Food" - the people who, hand in hand with the 1970's Earl Butz's 'cheap food' plan "need" cheap feed to bring you cheap meat?

Or the businesses who were formed to enter a government protected market and meet the government mandate?

As for the lead pipe issue - http://www.chloramine.org/chloraminefacts.htm

Plumbing Problems and Some Implications for Health Chloramine can cause leaching of lead from lead pipes, lead soldering and from so called "lead free" brass plumbing parts

Bank cuts growth forecast close to zero

The Bank of England has cut its growth forecast to close to zero from about 0.8% predicted in May, as the double-dip recession intensifies.

The quarterly inflation report indicated no growth for 2012, compared with 2% predicted a year ago....

..."The big picture is that output's been flat for two years, and has continually disappointed expectations of a recovery," he told a news conference.

"We are navigating rough waters and storm clouds continue to roll in from the euro area," he added.

France to fall back into recession says central bank

France's economy will fall back into recession this quarter, the country's central bank has predicted.

The Bank of France estimates that the economy will contract by 0.1% in July to September. It has already predicted a fall of the same level for April to June.

France posted zero growth in the first quarter of the year.

Steve Ludlum (‘Steve from Virgina’) pins down the why pretty well:

The World Crisis in 1000 Words (or less)

Our crisis is the unraveling of modernity and associated industrialization due to resource/capital depletion (Hall, Kümmel). This is the consequence of a ‘culture of excess’ that refuses to accept limits: there is human over-population, too many machines along with extractive industrial agriculture. Failures in credit- political- and production sector marketplaces are the manifestation of resource/capital depletion. What is underway is ‘conservation by other means’.

Modernity is a long-running process (400 years). It has been too successful too long for it to continue. Modernity cannibalizes its capital, as such our crisis is irreversible. Conventional marketplace remedies such as debt jubilees/write-offs, re-distribution, bailouts, stimulus, austerity policies, monetary easing, etc. have no effect on outcome other than to worsen conditions. These are efforts to reclaim capital that no longer exists. Consequently, remedies accelerate unraveling process by increasing gross debt (claims against capital) while exposing remaining capital to consumption at higher rates. The capital ‘pie’ cannot be redistributed, only a new and much smaller pie is to be had and carefully tended. Our smaller pie of non-renewable resources is what we have to make use of, to last us and the rest of the world’s creatures until the end of humanity....

...Economists insist that capital is symbolic (money) rather than material. Capital = resources (Daly), all industrial money is debt. Abstract money is infinitely reproducible, material inputs are not. Existence of debt-money is incentive to waste even as input constraints unravel input-dependent enterprises (petroleum fuel, also topsoil, water and waste-carrying capacity).

Waste-based economy depletes the capital it requires. Adjusting the waste-based economy to operate at greater efficiency depletes capital more thoroughly at a higher rate (Jevons).

I've always considered 'growth' to be an illusion; a case of us moving stuff around to promote our expansion as a species, but in reality a negative sum game of destroying substantive usefulness to ourselves and the biosphere. Limits to our illusion of growth have always existed. The dream is ending. Reality's cold, rainy Monday morning has arrived. Wake up, sleepy head...

Here's an interesting article from someone in the economics community on why we have not responded to people highlighting the finiteness of the world.

http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue60/Bouleau60.pdf (Link is a PDF)

Here are a couple of nice quotes from the conclusion.

"Randomness hides trends. It is precisely for this reason that there is randomness in financial markets. For if the trends were clear, they would be immediately exploited, and their clarity would disappear. In hiding these trends, randomness weakens the arguments that one can derive from the finiteness of the world and its limits. This is one reason why the warnings given by the Club of Rome were not acted upon: bell curves – quasi-exponential growth, overshoot, peak, decay and collapse – we do not see these in prices."

"Until the 18th century it was the “elements” that were random; humans actually occupied only a tiny part of the planet... Humans occupy the majority of the planet and it is they, by economic reasoning and free-market logic, that are the main source of randomness. The economy is now the environment that the environment finds itself in. Neoliberalism has become the storm, against which the world needs protection."

Matt, from Australia:

Iran's 2nd and last oil peak:
http://crudeoilpeak.info/irans-2nd-and-last-oil-peak

Sinkhole methane bubbles now 'more prolific'

Methane bubbles in the Bayou Corne community area sinkhole that emerged late last week have become more prolific, according to the local sheriff and the sinkhole depth, reported earlier Tuesday to be 372 feet deep, is reported to be 381 foot deep Tuesday evening.

The slurry area is south of La. 70 South, 2,500 feet from the nearest home in the Bayou Corne community, and only 1,500 feet from a butane-filled cavern.

In 2010, between 600 and 700 acres of sugarcane in Assumption Parish fell victim to a blowout that spewed oil and saltwater in Assumption Parish. Residents had been evacuated then, too, to prevent injury and death from Mantle Oil and Gas LLC well that spewed oil, gas, brine, sand and other materials into the air.

The Bayou Corne sinkhole is approximately two miles from the site of the 2010 oil and gas blowout.

China tightens controls on rare earths production

China's government has further tightened curbs on production of rare earths used in mobile phones and other high-tech products in a move that might inflame trade tensions with Washington and Europe.

Regulations issued this week say mines and smelting companies must meet minimum output levels to continue operating. The state newspaper China Daily said Wednesday that might result in 20 percent of the country's production capacity to be shut down.

Mines must have yearly output of at least 20,000 tons, while smelters must have production capacity of 5,000 tons per year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Up to one-third of China's 23 mines and about half of its 99 smelting companies will fail to meet the new standards, China Daily said, citing the director of the ministry's rare earths office, Jia Yinsong. Jia said that would eliminate about 20 percent of China's rare earths production capacity.

The government also has limited the number of companies that are allowed to export rare earths.

Paris rids cars from Riverside Streets

Temporary summer conversions made permanent and expanded with new national government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/world/europe/paris-to-cut-car-traffic-...

Best Hopes for More,

Alan

Meteor smoke makes strange clouds

In the 19th century, noctilucent clouds or NLCs were confined to high latitudes—places like Canada and Scandinavia. In recent times, however, they have been spotted as far south as Colorado, Utah and Nebraska. The reason, Russell believes, is climate change. One of the greenhouse gases that has become more abundant in Earth's atmosphere since the 19th century is methane. It comes from landfills, natural gas and petroleum systems, agricultural activities, and coal mining.

It turns out that methane boosts NLCs.

Russell explains: "When methane makes its way into the upper atmosphere, it is oxidized by a complex series of reactions to form water vapor. This extra water vapor is then available to grow ice crystals for NLCs."

If this idea is correct, noctilucent clouds are a sort of "canary in a coal mine" for one of the most important greenhouse gases.

Turning Down the Heat for Carbon: Unusual reaction eschews high temperatures and water to lock carbon dioxide away

Keeping the CO2 trapped by transforming into minerals, called carbonation reactions, take place much more readily at high temperatures. But, scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory discovered a reaction that breaks the rules. At relatively low temperatures and while recycling the water it needs, this reaction transforms CO2 into the mineral magnesite.

A New Global Warming Culprit: Dam Drawdowns

Washington State University researchers have documented an underappreciated suite of players in global warming: dams, the water reservoirs behind them, and surges of greenhouse gases as water levels go up and down.

Bridget Deemer, a doctoral student at Washington State University-Vancouver, measured dissolved gases in the water column of Lacamas Lake in Clark County and found methane emissions jumped 20-fold when the water level was drawn down. A fellow WSU-Vancouver student, Maria Glavin, sampled bubbles rising from the lake mud and measured a 36-fold increase in methane during a drawdown.

and Diseased Trees New Source of Climate Gas

Sixty trees sampled at Yale Myers Forest in northeastern Connecticut contained concentrations of methane that were as high as 80,000 times ambient levels. Normal air concentrations are less than 2 parts per million, but the Yale researchers found average levels of 15,000 parts per million inside trees.

... The estimated emission rate from an upland site at the Yale forest is roughly equivalent to burning 40 gallons of gasoline per hectare of forest per year. It also has a global warming potential equivalent to 18 percent of the carbon being sequestered by these forests, reducing their climate benefit of carbon sequestration by nearly one-fifth.

"If we extrapolate these findings to forests globally, the methane produced in trees represents 10 percent of global emissions," said Xuhui Lee, a co-author of the study and Sara Shallenberger Brown Professor of Meteorology at Yale. "We didn't know this pathway existed."

The Argentinian-British Conflict over the Falklands in context.

So why are Argentina rattling their sabers against the British over the Falklands?
Who, after all, overwhelmingly wish to remain under British sovereignty according to every single poll.

Is it just to stir nationalist fervor to save the current government? Well that's the superficial analysis.

The Falklands have oil resources in the surrounding seas, many of whom fall under British control or are at least in dispute.

And this matters:

Argentina is on the verge of becomming a net importer, again. However, that era was marred with frequent economic turbulence and a third world nation status.

Well, the data only stretches back to 2011, but it's noteworthy that imports increased by over 100 % in one year alone.

Argentina of late has done better, even if it's political class is worthless.
Soy exports, in particular, have helped a lot since China is very hungry.

Oil has been the cushion, together with China, to paper over the staggering incompetence of it's political leadership. And that leadership understands as much, which is why they are now going after the British, thinking that Britain, apparently, is a soft target.

It'll be interesting to see how America reacts. So far Obama has left the Brits out to dry in the cold, despite the fact that he and Cameron seem to actually get along quite well.

Is it time for the Royal navy to kick ass again?

U.S. Freezes All Nuclear Power Plant Licensing Decisions

WASHINGTON, DC, August 7, 2012 (ENS) – Federal nuclear regulators today froze at least 19 final reactor licensing decisions in response to a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit that spent nuclear fuel stored on-site at nuclear power plants “poses a dangerous, long-term health and environmental risk.”

In its ruling, the appeals court invalidated the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s 2010 updates to the Waste Confidence Rule and also the Temporary Storage Rule and directed the commission to fully comply with federal law.

In response, the NRC today put a hold on nine construction and operating licenses, eight license renewals, one operating license, and one early site permit.

The court noted that, after decades of failure to site a permanent geologic repository, including 20 years of working on the now-abandoned Yucca Mountain repository in Nevada, the NRC “has no long-term plan other than hoping for a geologic repository.”

Asia, US Plains Facing Water Extraction Crisis

Heavily-populated regions of Asia, the arid Middle East and parts of the US corn belt are dangerously over-exploiting their underground water supplies, according to a study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature.

... Seeking a yardstick of sustainability, the study creates a measure called the groundwater footprint.

It calculates the area of land sustained by extracted water and compares this to the size of the aquifer beneath.

The global groundwater footprint is a whopping 3.5 times the size of the world's aquifers, the study found.

For instance, in the South Caspian region of northern Iran, the footprint is 98 times the size of the aquifer; in the Upper Ganges in India and Pakistan, it is 54; while in the US High Plains, the figure is nine.

"Humans are over-exploiting groundwater in many large aquifers that are crucial to agriculture, especially in North America and Asia," said Gleeson. ... about 1.7 billion people live in areas where groundwater resources and/or groundwater-dependent ecosystems are under threat.

Nature: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v488/n7410/full/nature11295.html

... and fracking will also compete with the demand for that water

Study discovers new atmospheric compound tied to climate change, human health

Mauldin said the new chemical pathway for sulfuric acid formation is of interest to climate change researchers because the vast majority of sulfur dioxide is produced by fossil fuel combustion at power plants. “With emissions of sulfur dioxide, the precursor of sulfuric acid, expected to rise globally in the future, this new pathway will affect the atmospheric sulfur cycle,” he said.

He said the newly discovered oxidant might help explain recent studies that have shown large parts of the southeastern United States might have cooled slightly over the past century. Particulates from sulfuric acid over the forests there may be forming more clouds than normal, cooling the region by reflecting sunlight back to space.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v488/n7410/full/nature11278.html

Mexico closes two oil ports:

The ports of Cayo Arcas and Dos Bocas, two of Mexico's three main oil export hubs in the Gulf of Mexico, were closed as Ernesto approached, port authorities said.

"The prognosis is to be operational again on Thursday," said Dos Bocas official Guadalupe Perez. "But we don't know when it will open. It depends on the size of the waves."

Almost all of Mexico's crude oil exports are shipped to refineries on the Gulf Coast of the United States from the Cayo Arcas, Dos Bocas and Coatzacoalcos facilities.

Ernesto weakens over southern Mexico, churns toward Gulf
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/08/storm-ernesto-idINL2E8J84MH2012...

China Firm to Buy Control of U.S.-Backed Battery Maker

A123 Systems Inc., a struggling, U.S. government-backed manufacturer of advanced batteries for electric vehicles, is turning to one of China's largest auto parts makers for a bailout.

The Waltham, Mass.-based company said on Wednesday that Wanxiang Group Corp., a Chinese conglomerate, agreed to acquire up to an 80% stake in return for an up to $450 million investment.

A123 was the first company to open a factory in the U.S. using funds from an Obama administration program to encourage domestic production of advanced batteries.

The company, partially owned by General Electric Co., likely would keep its U.S. headquarters and operations while giving the parts company access to battery technology and the chance to expand in China where the government has made electric-vehicle adoption a priority, A123 said.

Swiss experts invited to conduct Arafat autopsy

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) -- The chief Palestinian investigator looking into Yasser Arafat's 2004 death says Palestinian officials have invited Swiss experts to test the leader's remains for possible poisoning.

Wednesday's announcement by investigator Tawfik Tirawi, a former intelligence chief, came after weeks of zigzagging by Arafat's heirs over whether they would agree to dig up the remains.

Last month, a Swiss lab testing biological stains on Arafat's clothes detected elevated levels of radioactive polonium-210, reviving speculation about what killed Arafat. But the lab said the findings were inconclusive and that only testing Arafat's remains could bring clarity.

About 30 earthquakes strike in Southern California 'sequence'

At a news conference Wednesday morning, Kate Hutton of the U.S. Geological Survey at Caltech said there had been at least 30 quakes since last night, but only three could be felt by residents.

"This is all part of the same earthquake sequence; they're all in the same area,'' Hutton told reporters at the briefing, which was televised by several TV stations.

Experts said more aftershocks are likely.

The series of quakes -- including the 4.5 quake Wednesday morning and 4.4 quake Tuesday night -- has rattled residents in the area.

... has somebody been filling injection wells?

Fifty years of fire in the abandoned US town of Centralia

Half a century ago, a landfill fire in the Pennsylvanian town of Centralia spread underground to an abandoned coal mine.

The blaze has been burning beneath the community ever since.

The BBC's Matthew Danzico went to Centralia to meet the few Centralia residents who have refused to leave, claiming that their part of town is not threatened by the fire.

From today's WaPo Capital Weather Gang:

U.S. has hottest month on record in July 2012 NOAA says

The WaPo blog post links to this comment on another blog:

High Times: More 2012 Record Highs than All of Last Year

E. Swanson

Five civilisations that climate change may have doomed

Roman Empire: ... Records of temperatures and rainfall in western Europe over the past 2500 years revealed that between 250 and 550 AD the climate flipped from dry and cool to warm and wet from one decade to the next. Such unpredictable changes are devastating for farmers, and the resulting shortages of food may have contributed to the empire's collapse.

And now we know ...

Scientists discover the truth behind Colbert's 'truthiness'

Trusting research over their guts, scientists in New Zealand and Canada examined the phenomenon Stephen Colbert, comedian and news satirist, calls "truthiness"—the feeling that something is true. In four different experiments they discovered that people believe claims are true, regardless of whether they actually are true, when a decorative photograph appears alongside the claim. The work is published online in the Springer journal, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review.

Across all the experiments, the findings fit with the idea that photos might help people conjure up images and ideas about the claim more easily than if the claim appeared by itself. "We know that when it's easy for people to bring information to mind, it 'feels' right," said Newman.

"Our research suggests that these photos might have unintended consequences, leading people to accept information because of their feelings rather than the facts."

Stockton police and firefighters have no money to buy gas

One of California’s bankrupt cities is struggling to keep its police and firefighters in service. The two public safety departments have no gasoline in the pumps at their stations, because companies refuse to service those in bankruptcy.

“The PD and fire dept. are both out of gas and the gas companies will not service us because we r in BK,” said a text message sent from police to the local TV station FOX40 last Monday. “The gas vendor is owed money and will no longer service to us.”

and Poteet police forced to pay for their own gas at the pump

POTEET, Texas -- Police officers in Poteet say they're pulling up to the pump and paying for gas out of their own pockets.

Sgt. Luis Farrias said several city gas cards have been rejected at the pump, leaving them no choice but to front the cash during their patrol shift.

2012 Warmest Year on Record for Northeast, Cornell Says
Obama Is Fast-tracking an Environmental Disaster to Please Big Oil

And it was the hottest month, July, on record as well.

Indian Oil Posts Nation’s Biggest Quarterly Loss Of $4.1 Billion

Indian Oil Corp. (IOCL) posted the nation’s biggest quarterly loss of 224.5 billion rupees ($4.1 billion) after the government failed to compensate it for capping fuel prices and processing margins turned negative.
The country’s largest company had reported an earnings deficit of 37.2 billion rupees a year earlier, the New Delhi- based state-owned refiner said in a stock exchange filing today. The median estimate of 21 analysts compiled by Bloomberg was a loss of 64.3 billion rupees. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. posted a record loss of 92.5 billion rupees.

U.S. drought drives up food prices worldwide

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The drought that's drying up the Heartland isn't just an American problem. It's causing food prices to surge worldwide.

Food prices jumped 6% in July, after three months of declines, according to the United Nations' monthly Food Price Index released Thursday. The main drivers behind the increase? Grain prices. And more specifically, corn prices, which have hit record highs in recent weeks.

We haven't even gotten to the harvest yet. Livestock producers are switching to feeding other grains as corn prices are so high. This, of course, drives other grain prices up, and reduces stockpiles available for export. At least it leaves more corn for ethanol production, a good thing since our refineries are falling apart :-/`

Google to include Gmail in search results

Gmail's more than 425 million users already can search within their personal e-mail accounts to find something they need, such as an order from Amazon.com or an airline reservation.

Now, Gmail users who are logged into their accounts will be shown a list of relevant e-mails on Google's main search results page if the correspondence contains a word entered in a search request.

Google is initially testing the feature with just 1 million Gmail users who request access to a "field trial." Gmail users can sign up at http://g.co/searchtrial.

There was a discussion about privacy on previous threads, just wanted to give a heads up to everyone. I have decided to slowly get rid of gmail and my other accounts, I have already started using a mix of search engines.

The baby boom recovery

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Three years after the recession ended, the U.S. population now has pent-up demand for many things: cars, homes, business loans ... and even babies.

The sluggish economy sent the birth rate in the United States falling as high unemployment derailed many young people's plans to move out and start families.

About 22% of 18- to 34-year-olds surveyed by the Pew Research Center said they have postponed having a baby because of recent economic conditions.

But as the economy improves, that trend will eventually have to reverse itself.

That's because most young people still want to have children. The typical American woman wants an average of 2.3 children over her lifetime. According to surveys by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, that's been roughly consistent for 50 years.

Oh, great...

There are a lot of WTF?! comments being posted. Apparently, many folks don't agree about the claimed 'recovery', or that bringing a child into the world at this time has become any more affordable.

Another below average US natural gas (NG) injection number, 24 BCF:

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

A link to a Forbes blog post which discusses the possibility that US NG storage could be below average by the end of October (with pro & con points of view):

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9383#comment-909406

Report: Drought conditions worsen in key farm states

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map released Thursday shows that the amount of the contiguous U.S. mired in drought conditions dropped a little more than 1 percentage point, to 78.14 percent. But the expanse still gripped by extreme or exceptional drought rose nearly 2 percentage points to 24.14 percent.

... The nation’s biggest corn and soybean producer, Iowa, is still grappling with the drought. The amount of that state in extreme or exceptional drought more than doubled, rising from 30.74 percent last week to 69.14 percent as of Tuesday.

New from Congressional Research Service [CRS] ...

Receipt of Unemployment Insurance by Higher-Income Unemployed Workers (“Millionaires”) pdf

... Among tax filers with Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) of $1 million or more, 2,840 reported receipt of unemployment benefit income in 2008 and 2,362 tax filers reported receipt of unemployment benefit income in 2009. This represents 0.02% to 0.03% of all tax filers that reported receiving unemployment benefit income.

US town hopes tides will power recovery (w/Video)

The first commercial tidal energy project in North America is in its final test phase.

Turbines have been engineered a little way off the coast of the US state of Maine, in such a way as to ensure that they always turn the same way, whether the tide is rolling in, or out.

The turbines power a generator, creating electricity. Cables carry it onshore and directly into the power grid.

Three years from now, authorities hope that hope that the generator will power 1,200 homes.

Oil prices are about to collapse, well, that is if this article from Bloomberg is correct.

Oil May Retreat On Fastest Stockpiling Rate In 14 Years

OPEC pumped 2.1 million barrels a day more than projected demand in April through June, the biggest overproduction for any quarter since 1998, the International Energy Agency estimates. The increase has been overshadowed by focus on U.S.-led sanctions against Iran’s oil exports, Citigroup Inc. said. Brent will fall to $93 by September and $83 by year-end, according to the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

That's a drop of $20 by next month and $30 by the end of the year. Brent is currently at $113.28, up $1.08 so far today. Apparently some traders haven't gotten the word.

Ron P.

Banks' Cash Stash: No Shield Against Bankruptcy

Imposing minimal capital levels for banks is like attempting to solve a complex jigsaw puzzle with a poorly fitting piece that could lead to even greater chaos.

According to theoretical physicists João da Cruz and Pedro Lind from Lisbon University, Portugal, imposing minimum capital levels for banks may not prevent the insolvency of a minority of banks from triggering a widespread banking system collapse. In a study recently published in European Physical Journal B, the researchers explain why this measure could instead lead to larger crises.

The authors observed that the insolvency results in a break of all the bank's connections. As a result, it affects the 'economic energy' of all its neighbours. Due to the interplay between banks, the effect of a single insolvency is thus capable of triggering an avalanche in the banking system.

Journal reference: The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks

Solar Power Day and Night: KIT Controls Fluctuation of Renewable Energies by Using Modern Storage Systems

At Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), several pilot plants of solar cells, small wind power plants, lithium-ion batteries, and power electronics are under construction to demonstrate how load peaks in the grid can be balanced and what regenerative power supply by an isolated network may look like in the future.

Iraq Oil Tops 3 Million Barrels for First Time Since 2002

... Iraq pumped 3.08 million barrels a day in July, 115,000 barrels more than the previous month, OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said today in its Monthly Oil Market Report. The Persian Gulf state for a second month outpaced Iran, where output dropped by 173,000 barrels to 2.82 million. Iraq last produced more than 3 million barrels in February 2002, OPEC said after revising its April estimate.

Farmers Say Labor Shortage Will Reshape Food Industry

... “The truth is that there’s a lot of work and not enough people,” said Aragon, 26, as a dozen men beside him hoisted ladders and stuffed pears into heavy pouches strapped over their shoulders.

... Morgan Hill, Calif. grower Tim Chiala abandoned a 50-acre string bean field in the fall because he couldn’t recruit enough workers to harvest both the beans and a more lucrative pepper crop. This year, he planted fewer crops.

Chiala said the food-conscious San Francisco Bay Area won’t be able to sustain its high-quality fresh-food expectations if a declining workforce leads to more food imports and field machinery.

The region’s food production, Chiala warned, is “going to be like everything else. They’ll outsource it to another country.”

U.S. Northern Command Homeland Defense/Civil Support Capabilities Assessment Study Plan

The Homeland Defense and Civil Support Capabilities-Based Assessment (HD/CS CBA) focuses on military problems facing DOD in the 2012-2025 timeframe with an emphasis on 2014-2016, i.e., “how” DOD will fulfill its responsibilities required to lead, support and enable Homeland Defense and Civil Support missions.

Scenario 1: In 2014, the countries Red and Orange launch a limited but coordinated attack on the United States. The attack begins with a cyber attack against financial systems. Two weeks later, Red launches a sea-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with a 10 kiloton (kT) warhead against Los Angeles followed shortly by an intercontinental ballistic missile with a 150 kT warhead launched against Hawaii with the initial prediction of impact area including part of the west coast of the continental US. Orange also launches a sea launched cruise missile with weaponized anthrax against Washington, DC.

These attacks are in response to the US retaliation against Orange for their involvement in terrorist activity in the United Kingdom.

These actions could lead to further escalation and ultimately to a nuclear attack by the US on a grand scale.

Scenario 2: In 2014, under country Pink's sponsorship, terrorist group Red launches a cyber attack against US financial and infrastructure systems because of US actions against Pink. Shortly thereafter, Red launches simultaneous attacks against two US naval ports: Norfolk, VA; and San Diego, CA. They also launch an unmanned aircraft (UA) carrying weaponized anthrax against San Diego from Mexico. In a coordinated effort, they also set off two radiological dispersal devices (RODs) in US airports. one at the Atlanta International Airport and one at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Scenario 3: In 2014, heavy rains in country Green result in severe flooding, prompting Green to call on the US for assistance. Shortly after the requested assistance begins, there is a National Special Security Event (NSSE), a G8 Summit meeting, in Texas. Shortly after that, a major earthquake happens in the southern US. There are also major problems in Aqua, leading the Aqua government to request humanitarian assistance from the US. All this occurs in late summer, and a heavy hurricane season is shaping up in the Atlantic.

... sounds like Reservoir Dogs ...

U.S. Army Military Police School Civil Disturbance Operations Course

The following self-learning course from the U.S. Army Military Police School, which was formerly located at Fort McClellan, describes procedures for military police involvement in civil disturbance operations. The course makes it clear that temporary detention facilities in the event of a civil disturbance overloading local resources would be operated under existing military doctrine for internment facilities. The course cites U.S. Army FM 3-19.40 Internment/Resettlement Operations, which is now numbered FM 3-39.40 since its most recent revision in 2010, as the primary reference for the operation of these facilities.

20th Support Command (CBRNE) soldiers roll through nuclear detecting robot testing at Muscatatuck

… “From a structural perspective, given a urban environment that’s been hit with a nuclear weapon there are a lot of hazards we wouldn’t want to send our guys into; and that’s the purpose of developing this type of equipment,” said Capt. Luke Moen, a native of Fairfield, Maine, operations officer assigned to the 20th SUPCOM.

Ports conduct radiation checkpoint operation

The Los Angeles County Maritime Region Radiation Nuclear Detection Coalition recently conducted its second Maritime Radiation Chokepoint Operation at the Los Angeles/Long Beach Port Complex.
"This coalition has worked together on numerous operations in the past in an effort to provide safety in the Port and prevent the possibility of dirty bombs or improvised nuclear weapons from being smuggled into the area," sheriff's Sgt. Mick Kelleher said in a written statement.

Only one gonorrhea drug left for routine cases-CDC

U.S. health officials are urging doctors to stop using a key antibiotic to treat routine cases of gonorrhea due to signs of bacterial resistance, leaving one treatment left for the sexually transmitted disease.

"This will not solve the problem of drug-resistant gonorrhea once and for all, but it may buy us time to allow researchers and drug developers to develop new treatments," Bolan told reporters in a telephone briefing.

In the United States, there are approximately 300,000 reported cases of gonorrhea each year, but because infected people often have no symptoms, the actual number of cases is likely closer to 700,000, Bolan said.

Senegalese villagers vow to fight biofuels project

Villagers from northern Senegal vowed Thursday to fight a project by Senegalese and Italian investors to produce biofuels on their land, a venture already forced to relocate once by deadly protests.

"We will fight those who want to take our land. It is the land of our ancestors, an area of 26,000 hectares which houses villages, thousands of heads of cattle, mosques, cemeteries," Oumar Ba, a representative of a collective of affected villages, told journalists.

"Whoever wants to take our land will first walk over our dead bodies," said Ba, who lives in the village of Ndiael in the region of the same name.

.. The United States and Brazil are the biggest producers, but investors have been criticised for buying up large swathes of land in Africa to produce fuel to be exported to their nations

Global water sustainability flows through natural and human challenges

... China's crisis is daunting, though not unique: Two-thirds of China's 669 cities have water shortages, more than 40 percent of its rivers are severely polluted, 80 percent of its lakes suffer from eutrophication – an over abundance of nutrients -- and about 300 million rural residents lack access to safe drinking water.

"There is an inescapable complexity with water," Liu said. "When you generate energy, you need water; when you produce food, you need water. However, to provide more water, more energy and more land are needed, thus creating more challenges for energy and food production, which in turn use more water and pollute more water.

"In the end, goals are often contradictory to each other. Everybody wants something, but doesn't take a systems approach that is essential for us to see the whole picture."

Regular readers know of my concerns about the 'investment class' and Carbon control to save the world.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/09/world/asia/incentive-to-slow-climate-c...

They quickly figured out that they could earn one carbon credit by eliminating one ton of carbon dioxide, but could earn more than 11,000 credits by simply destroying a ton of an obscure waste gas normally released in the manufacturing of a widely used coolant gas. That is because that byproduct has a huge global warming effect. The credits could be sold on international markets, earning tens of millions of dollars a year.

OPEC Oil Export Cutback Steepens

OPEC, responsible for about 40 percent of global supplies, will ship 23.73 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 25

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-09/opec-to-trim-exports-on-refi...

OPEC tanker tracker, 'Oil Movements', reported today that August exports will be roughly about 23.75 mbpd, as compared to the 23.90 mbpd level that prevailed through July, and the 24.0 mbpd level that seen in most of May and June.

The drop of 250,000 bpd over the last two months is substantially attributable to a drop of 400,000 bpd in exports from Saudi Arabia to the US, offset some by an increase of about 150,000 of exports from Libya and Iraq (for which the increment is not going to the US), with the balance of exports from other countries substantially offsetting each other.

A drop in Saudi exports is expected while repairs are underway at the largest US refinery, Motiva.

Note that 'Oil Movements' measures the actual exports shipped, and not the 'output' level frequently cited in many energy related articles.

In the last few months, the gap between 'output' and exports has widened considerably. Possible reasons for this are that OPEC is adding to its own storage and/or using more oil for itself - especially in the summer. See posts by westexas as to why this may be happening.

'Voice of God' to scare church roof raiders
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9098585/Voice-of-God-to-sca...

The soaring cost of metal during the global economic crisis has helped fuel a surge in metal thefts, triggering chaos on the rail network when copper signalling cables are taken.

The bishop said said: “Since the metal vandals have descended in such hordes over recent years our duty of maintenance has become nearly impossible.”

Miss Hurley said: “Beautiful old churches are at the heart of so many of our communities and I find it truly shocking that anyone would steal lead from a church roof. I heartily endorse the campaign to have alarms fitted.”