Wilma Category 5: Lowest Pressure Ever
Posted by Stuart Staniford on October 19, 2005 - 5:42am
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... -- NHC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
Their view on the track is still pretty much the same:
Here's what the models show:
But notice how the hurricane itself has shifted to a more westerly direction. Judge for yourself:
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A couple things worry me about Wilma (other than the fact I live in Florida). On the three day path projection graph, the cone has a large bulge. This means the `steering currents' are not that strong. (Rita did a similar thing when she made landfall). Until we know where it is headed, it will be difficult to call for evacuations. These hurricanes have a mind of their own and tend to go where they want. One trouble with small storms is you can be fine here, and five miles down the road, nothing is left. If the path is unsure, you need to evacuate everywhere it possibly could strike.
However, on the five day track, it picks up speed and goes rocketing across the state. This may not be a good thing. This will carry the high winds further inland and hit structures that are not designed or used to these high winds. Hurricane Charley did this very thing. It came ashore a high Cat 3/Low Cat 4, and ripped through the state like a tornado on steroids. (We were 80 miles down the track and we had winds of 105 mph. Polk Co. is only required to be designed for 90 mph in the latest building code.)
A fast moving storm also means evacuation times are less. Wilma seems to be headed towards the Naples area. The only real northbound evacuation route is I-75. This is only a four lane facility that clogs up on any given `rush hour' morning.
It's going to be a long weekend folks.
I also note the oilprice - hurricane interaction :
WILMA is born --> +1
She's not going to the oilfields --> -1.5
but it's going to be a cat 5+ --> + 0.5
Sunday : "Miami will not be consuming for a few years" --> -2
"What seemed particularly odd to Rip, was that though these folks were evidently amusing themselves, yet they maintained the gravest faces, the most mysterious silence, and were, withal, the most melancholy party of pleasure he had ever witnessed. Nothing interrupted the stillness of the scene but the noise of the balls, which, whenever they were rolled, echoed along the mountains like rumbling peals of thunder."
Also, on the Enterprise Mission website there are some interesting quotes of Maxwell's poetry showing deep mystical beliefs in the fourth dimension (or fifth, as you see fit). After Maxwell passed away, Heaviside "simplified" his equations by removing the quaternions. Mainstream physics may have discarded these ether-type equations too rapidely.
The quote from Cohen pointed to earthquakes, hurricanes and volcanic eruptions as manifestations of scalar weaponry. I'm not aware of any way to discriminate between these artificial events and the trend of increased activity over the last century. However, three major hurricanes in one year hitting strategic assets in the US would qualify as noteworthy in any sane person's mind. Oh, and their strength and the speed at which they increase is dumbfounding, isn't?
Go on. Read today's post of Enterprise Mission.
Notice the navigation of Ophelia. (I especialy love the part when "bands" appear, moving her out and weakening her at the same time.
Notice the incredible strengthening of Wilma, in an amazingly short span of time. Someone else here said it: she was supposed to be category 2 by now.
It seems that Wilma is going to visit Miami. That would be three storms hitting three vital regions in succession. Then again, I think that there will be more weather manipulation performed to make it a near miss on the city.
Finally, read on about how hyperdimensional physics work. It might be more productive then speculating about manure. It would be harder to detect submarine methane extraction. But that would take away the fun of writing nonsensical responses.
If someone had the wherewithall to do this, their best bet would be towards Houston again. The US can live without Miami for a while; a huge hit on oil infrastructure, again, would be quite catastrophic for energy supplies and thus the economy.
As usual, people who assert this kind of stuff claim special rights in the marketplace of ideas. They say we have to deal with their "evidence" of several undeniably large hurricanes PLUS a complete fantasy about a ray gun. But there are better ways to explain why so many hurricanes have formed, and real scientists are using real scientific methods to do just that. The old switcheroo trick in the pseudo science con game is to point at effect, shout a lot, and hope people will get worked up enough to ignore the total lack of evidence for the asserted cause. But the people who use this site are not a bunch of mouthbreathers seeking excitement in place of tonight's drivel on reality TV. Show us one scintilla of compelling evidence that a weather ray gun that can spawn and control hurricanes exists. And don't cite that hokum on "mission enterprise."
Not so long ago, the Church did a nasty trick on Galilleo for lacking faith.
Now, it seems Science has taken up the gauntlet. Never mind for those who dare speak against her holy facade of methods. Never mind, too, that the majority of scientists have often been proven wrong during paradigm shifts.
Just curious. How do you explain Ophelia? You recall her dancing, right? You recall all the computer models being confused? You can see her sudden shift to the Atlantic, as those bands appear?
I happen to have some nifty gifs on my computer. They show her eye, but with a nice triangular shape with 60 degree angles were one would expect a smooth barrel. On IR and visible, if you can believe that. Now, to me, a 60 degree triangle in the middle of a hurricane speaks quite loudly. More so then a fantasy.
So, do we have a fluid specialist in the house to explain?
Tell me too, where all the scientists got it so wrong predicting the strength increase of Wilma? Ah, it's an uncertain science. There's lots of factor. It's unpredictable. The outcome varies according to which model you might use. Rinse, lather, repeat. This "scientific" attitude is certainly nothing like that of a pseudo scientist, right?
I'm curious. Really, curiousity is the first step to understanding. Not methods.
"There's a lot we can't explain about Ophelia. Therefore, she was guided by a ray gun."
Argument to ignorance, which is a FALLACY.
http://skepdic.com/ignorance.html
Look deep.
I'm trying to open your eyes to a reality but you fling the skepdic at me. Ultimately, skepticism leads to mental abortion.
Being willfully ignorant is anyone's choice, of course. I respect those who admit they don't want to know. Admitting it is better than standing behind a strawman.
I once read a series of sci-fi stories about a weather council becoming the world's governing body. As I recall, they sent heat-resistant ships to the sun to modulate the amount of sunlight hitting any area on Earth, which gave them unanticipated political power.
We have to guess about oil reserves because so many countries won't furnish the requisite data. So there is lots of uncertainty about peak. Note that one doesn't have to bring in a hidden conspiracy and other completely speculative mechanisms to explain why we can't get the data.
Contrast the above with the assertions that ray guns or other implements are controlling the weather. A few efforts at cloud seeding do not a ray gun make.
When the ray-gun club produces evidence of one (and no, radar shots of "manipulated" hurricanes aren't evidence of the gun), then we can talk facts - as we usually do about peak oil on this list until people who have other agendas interrupt the discussion. Surely there are other places on the net where they'd feel more comfortable. Maybe they'd even get to feel one of those guns...
So a small eye in a strong CAT 5 will do less overall damage than a large eye wall of a medium to strong CAT 3 or 4.
What do you think?
- No credible evidence exists, but plenty of conspiracy theory speculation does.
- Usually the simplest explaination tends to be the right one. There were weather cycles long before there was any ability to do more than dream about nuclear weapons let alone dream up, build, and deploy climate changing weapons.
- If indeed the US had been attacked numerous times by a climate weapon you can bet the US military would have dropped a H bomb or two on someone else, even it wasn't the right target.
- Eco-weapons is a rather convenient excuse to role out and deflect attention away from the simplest and most plausible explanation ... man pumping millions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere at an accelerating rate is changing the planetary climate.
That or its a natural cycle, you take your pick. I favour the former because its common sense.Yup, lets believe in the fanciful so we can avoid doing what makes sense.
There are cycles. No argument there. That's the long term trend of increasing earthquakes and volcanoes since the beginning of the century. There's slowing of the Gulf Stream, which is keeping a lot more warm water further south, in turn helping the formation of hurricanes. These cycles are so long term that we know next to nothing of them.
You know, I am sure about Sun Tzu Art of War. You also certainly must recall how he says that you must attack where it is unexpected. That's the great wonder of these natural weapons. They have built in deniability.
But have a look a the now-classic Chinese text, Unrestricted Warfare.
Military
Atomic warfare
Conventional warfare
Bio-chemical warfare
Ecological warfare
Space warfare
Electronic warfare
Guerrilla warfare
Terrorist warfare
Trans-military
Diplomatic warfare
Network warfare
Intelligence warfare
Psychological warfare
Tactical warfare
Smuggling warfare
Drug warfare
Virtual warfare (deterrence)
Non-military
Trade warfare
Resources warfare
Economic aid warfare
Regulatory warfare
Sanction warfare
Media warfare
Ideological warfare
In all these domains, the authors suggests that they must not be seen as conventional attacks (airplanes, tanks) and thus will slip by unnoticed by the US military.You can have a lot more fun by reading the translation yourself.
Finally, what would be the tactical use of making a few million people drive at a time when refineries are not exactly underworked? What would be the psychological use to terrorize all these millions? To remove the invincibility aura of the US?
The fact that people make fun of these weapons is evidence that they work!
"Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance." --Albert Einstein
Of course it is more comfortable and convenient for some people to remain willfully ignorant. Weather warfare and modification is too much of a leap outside the confines of our neat little paradigm. Information abounds for any who dare entertain and investigate; yet, for the aforementioned reasons, most enjoy scoffing more than true scholarship and inquiry.
These storms (and coming earthquakes, which may even coincide with the next major storm) are part of the tactical economic war aimed at the US. We are already slaves to our creditors (Chinese for one)...they are just waiting for the chance to pull the plug on the Almighty Greenback which long ago replaced the God that our money says we trust.
We'll be on standby for Wilma... let's just hope the BIG ONE doesn't go off in CA at the same time...they are already getting those tremors on the pacific islands.
I'm not saying you're wrong or right. But I do believe very strongly in the old adage about extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary proof.
Convince me this is true, and I'll help you tell the world. Fail to convince me, and I'll consider it just one more unproven thing I read online.
It's the same about any kind of important secret, for money, sex, whatever.
I hope at least that you'll remember this as time goes on and these forces of nature impress themselves forcefully on front page news.
--the UN adpoted a relolution against nations using these weapons against each other...you can read the text of the treaty here at the US state dept. http://www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/4783.htm
--US Senate Bill 517: Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Act, legislation passed by the US Congress as Bill S-517 on March 3, 2005.
--Veitnam war history reports of weather control by US forces, locally creating rain and fog against the enemy
--US Patent Office--weather modification devices have patents
--www.cheniere.org
--www.weatherwars.info
--www.cuttingedge.org/articles/weather.cfm
Remember that scientific evidence available to the public is several to many years behind the esoteric government and military knowledge. That is why so much is classified. Weapons and how they work must be kept secret. This is common sense war strategy.
You've challenged me with providing evidence; I now challenge you to do your homework. We can then continue our dialogue about the implications of weather warfare.
-Hurricane Jeanne killed some 1100+ people in Haiti
-Went sailing out to sea
-Did a loop-de-loop
-Went straight west for some 1500 miles and ripped off the rest of my roof.
I no longer question any wacky paths hurricanes take. They go where they wish.
Most of the 3-million folks in the larger Tampa Bay area do not realize just how lucky they were to avoid Hurricane Charley. Researchers in 2002 estimated a Category 5 hurricane (one notch up from Charley) striking the Tampa Bay area would cause more than $25-billion in insured losses - 60 percent higher than Andrew's hit in 1992 - and more than $50-billion in total losses.
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/08/23/Columns/We_got_a_warning_shot.shtml
Mechanicsville (VA) distributor John Zehler Jr. said it is not clear that reports about falling gasoline demand, which partially prompted lower prices, are correct. Also, Zehler said lower prices may discourage gasoline imports, which have helped lower prices and have compensated for Gulf Coast refinery production that remain shut down because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD/MGArticle/RTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArtic le&cid=1128767598975
According to the path forecast the entire State of FL will have to be on alert to evac. FL does not have enough gas to get everyone out, where ever "out" is and then come back.
Cascading Systems failure-once the evacs get back there will not be gas. Floridians will have to literally follow gas tankers back into affected areas.
Will Floridians still have to give back FEMA aid from Francis now?
Today's EIA report:
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.0 million barrels per day, or 3.2 percent less than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 8.9 million barrels per day, or 2.2 percent below the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged over 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 4.0 percent below the same period last year.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/curren t/txt/wpsr.txt
Last week's:
Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged over 20.0 million barrels per day, or 2.8 percent less than averaged over the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged over
8.8 million barrels per day, or 2.4 percent below the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, or 4.0 percent below the same period last year.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/ and look at the predicted intensity levels by the various models at various times. By this time, it was predicted to continue to be a cat 2 hurricane, and not cat high cat5 hurricane. In fact the predictions 2 days ago had the velocities coming back to tropical storm levels by today!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
The rapid increase in the wind is proably due to the eye shrinking. When it expands the wind speed should slow.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/partners/weather/maps/todmap_full.gif
"While Wilma is moving toward the Yucatan Channel, a cold front will move south and east from the northern Rocky Mountains and begin to turn Wilma to the northeast toward the southwest Florida coast shortly after she enters the Gulf of Mexico."
http://flhurricane.com/