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View from the US Independent Producer

Posted by Bubba on December 3, 2005 - 2:07pm

I'm sitting here reading November, 05 edition of The Oil and Gas Investor Magazine, which is one of the major media outlets for the US Independent Oil and Gas Industry, and here are the articles that occur back to back to back.

Herold panelists debate peak oil:  Fact or Fiction:

"Debate continues throughout the oil industry as to whether world oil production has peaked, or soon will, followed by a long, slow, irreversible decline."

and

EIA: Gas-finding improves, but not from new fields

"...reserve additions from just new fields are the smallest that they have been for both gas and oil for tat least the last 10 years."

and

EOG's Papa: LNG essential to the U.S., but competition to be tough

"If we don't start competing, it will continue to go everywhere but the U.S."

and lastly

The Gulf of Mexico

"Amid soaring rig costs, fast decline rates and lots of new projects - not to mention hurricanes - what's next for the Gulf of Mexico.

You might count the Gulf of Mexico down, but it is definitely not out.  True, it is beset with tremendous infrastructure challenges right now, and over the long haul, its production-decline curve is still steep, while costs are getting higher as operators drill deeper.

But hurricane risks aside, the Gulf is still one of the less-risky places in the world to make a splash."

Let me read between the lines here. "Danger Will Robinson, DANGER."   Even independent producers in the US, probably the most pro-oil development crowd in the world, are starting to express the view that finding and producing energy to supply the US, much less the world, is going to be trouble from this point forward.

View from the US Independent Producer

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5 comments

BioDiesel on December 3, 2005 - 3:38pm Permalink | Comments top
Do you have links to the each article?
I get teased by the headlines :-(
Leanan on December 3, 2005 - 4:54pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
I think it's for paid subscribers only.  
Bubba on December 4, 2005 - 12:54pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
Sorry about that. I read a lot of "subscription-only" periodicals at work that are not available in the public domain. I was hoping to try to share a taste of these with TOD readers, without having to reproduce all of each article.

I guess that I see my main job as a contributor at TOD is to try to give some perspective to the way things are viewed from inside the oil industry. Of course, my view is only my view, but it is slanted by working for oil companies for 20 years.  

In my current job, I get to see a large portion of industry-wide exploration and development opportunities throughout the world.  I believe I have a better perch than most to see what is potentially coming on stream.  It was after I took that job that I started researching and writing about Peak Oil.  Make your own conclusions about that statement.

steverino on December 4, 2005 - 5:01pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
bubba, thanks for your insiders view..i'm sure i'm not the only one that appreciates it
DrPaul on December 4, 2005 - 1:37pm Permalink | Comments top
The seeking alpha network - which includes the energystockblog - has been posting transcripts of conference calls with anaysts. Included so far are Amerada Hess, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Haliburton.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3683

Part of what is interesting about these (free) transcipts is the sometimes detailed discussion of projects and when they will be online. For example, from ExxonMobil:

In the upstream, the first phase of our Sakhalin-1 project in offshore Eastern Russia began production. The financial phase of the project is expected to produce 50,000 barrels of oil per day by the end of the year, and 250,000 per day at by the end of 2006. Initial gas sales of about 50 million cubic feet per day will rise to 250 million cubic feet per day by the end of the decade. Despite the projects complexity and the challenging environment the product start up was on time and the unit development cost is within 10% of expectations.

In July we began production at the $3.5 billion Kizamba B project on Angola Block 15. Exxon Mobile designed the world's largest floating production storage and offloading vessel for use at this location. The benchmark development came online five months ahead of schedule.

With Kizomba A these projects lifecycle time records with the lowest unit development cost for products of their scope. Gross production from Angola Block 15 is currently over 550,000 barrels of oil per day. We continue to advance our global LNG strategy with the commencement of several important activities by our Qatar joint ventures.

In August LNG train-4 RasGas 2 project was successfully commissioned. The project is among the largest LNG manufacturing facilities in the world today. And was constructed on time and within budget.

In September RasGas 2 and the Chinese Petroleum Company signed a 25-year 3 million ton per annum LNG supply agreement to commence in 2008. RasGas train 3 awarded the EPC contracts they for trains 6 and 7, two world-scale 7.8 million ton per annum LNG liquefaction trains.

Technology extensions that capitalized on economies of scale had been key factors in making to Qatari LNG cost competitive for export worldwide. In Malaysia Exxon Mobil installed Guangtong-E gas compression platform. Once fully operational in 2006 the new platform along with the two existing nearby platforms will have a combined handling capacity more than 800 million cubic feet of gas per day.

Guangtong E will allow Exxon Mobile to develop additional discovered gas resources in Malaysia.

In spite of all the discussion here about depletion rates in the North Sea,

In September our subsidiary was awarded 20 contiguous blocks in the U.K. North Sea. The award constitutes approximately 1.2 million acres and it is the largest single license award in the history of the U.K. continental shelf.

http://energystockblog.com/article/4683

They say a few times that new projects cover depletion from existing mture fields, but don't add much detail. Sometimes the Q & A covers projects in more detail.

View from the US Independent Producer

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5 comments