This is another dimension of what I talked about in the Fear of Losing Immortality post a few weeks back. If you think you're going somewhere else when TSHTF, why care what happens to this planet?

I would bet that in periods of high 'rapture' levels, stocks do better. (contrarian indicator)

For those not caught up in the rapture , it might be possible to obtain a position with CERA, Projecting huge quantities of fossil fuels coming online toward the end of the century . The bunnies and butterflies should partially offset a dearth of angels.

Real data, trends and predictions are what we seek, Stuart, and finally you have provided us with some as opposed to all that mathematical modeling nonsense you do based on the real world. Now, as we see lately that Iraqi oil exports (if not producton) are about to go to ZERO, we can certainly expect a dip in the definitive Rapture Index.

Finally glad to see that despite your doctorate in Physics (with study of the Early Universe) and tacked-on masters degree in Computer Science, and your devoted study of peak oil over the last several months, you have finally woken up and smelled the coffee--and seen where the truth really resides.

Keep up this kind of in-depth analysis, finally we're getting somewhere with these depletion issues.



And have a happy new year!

best, Dave

Well, at least these guys are peak oilers. "The supply of oil" weighs in at a very high #4 on their "Prophetic Top 10" list (which also includes global warming and hurricanes). There is a clear overlap in their interests and ours.

However, I'd bet most of us at TOD expect to be here post-peak [left behind, if you prefer ...]. And that gives a stronger incentive to make workable longer-term plans.

Apocalypse Now and the Brave New World
Richard Moore

21 Sep 2005

richard@cyberjournal.org

http://tinyurl.com/9vuq3
<<SNIP>>

We are now on the cusp of one of the most momentous historical episodes of all time -- the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are about to ride. Peak oil is the primary underlying condition forcing change, and Apocalypse is the action plan ruling elites have chosen as their response to that condition. Not only does this response make a great deal of sense, from their Machiavellian perspective, but by their recent actions they have clearly signaled the scope and direction of their intentions. Furthermore, their planned response is in complete alignment with earlier responses to similar situations in the past -- by these same people or by their direct predecessors.

The Four Horsemen of this Apocalypse:

Collapse
Genocide
War
Fascism
References:

Brzezinski, Zbigniew, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, Basic Books, New York, 1998.

Chossudovsky, Michel, The Globalization of Poverty: Impacts of IMF and World Bank Re-forms, Second Edition, Global Outlook, Shanty Bay, Ontario, 2003.

Engdahl, William, A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order, Revised Edition, Pluto Press, London, 2004.

Higham, Charles, Trading with the Enemy, Dell Publishing Co., New York, 1984.

NSSM 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests, http://web.archive.org/web/20041122015841/http://www.africa2000.com/SNDX/nssm200all.html.

Project for a New American Century, Rebuilding America's Defenses, http://www.newamericancentury.org/defensenationalsecurity.htm.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Historical background
"History teaches by analogy, not identity. The historical experience is not one of staying in the present and looking back; rather, it is one of going back into the past and returning to the present with a wider and more intense consciousness."

-- Daniel Estulin, investigative journalist

Peak oil is real. That is to say, we have reached the point where our annual consumption of oil is considerably greater than our annual ability to develop new sources. While global consumption continues to increase, potential sources can only decrease. No matter what anyone does, our oil-based global economy cannot continue for much longer in its current form -- at current population levels. At the same time, we must remember that the remaining reserves are vast -- perhaps the same amount remains as has ever been pumped, although it will become increasingly expensive to extract.

The fact of peak oil, in itself, does not necessarily imply that apocalypse is inevitable. If humanity were to face this problem in a sensible way, there is much that could be done to alleviate the crisis, re-organize our societies and economies, localize our production and consumption, reduce our wasteful practices, move to appropriate technologies, develop alternative energy sources and transport methods, etc. But it is not `humanity' that is in the driver's seat.

As we have watched the arrogant and radical behavior of the Bush administration over the past five years, it has become apparent to all that the neocon clique that dominates the White House is pursuing an agenda of its own, an agenda that is partially described in their PNAC document, "Rebuilding America's Defenses", which they proudly display on their website. This is not an agenda that `humanity' has chosen, nor have the American people chosen it. In fact people and nations all over the world are resisting and protesting this agenda, Bush's popularity is at an all-time low in America -- and none of this makes any difference to the pursuit of the agenda.

For the moment at least, we can all see that a clique is setting the world's course, a clique that acts in its own self-interest, following an agenda that in no way has any kind of democratic legitimacy. Many people assume, however, that this situation is an aberration from our normal political process, something unique to Bush and his crowd. Some see the sinister hand of a Zionist plot, and some point to the Bush family history of collaboration with the Nazi regime. If only we can get Bush out of office, such people think, we can return to some kind of sanity. If only it were so simple.

If we want to understand what we are facing, we need to be a bit more careful in identifying who are the ultimate movers and shakers behind world events. In fact, we are not looking at a Zionist plot, and we are not looking at a recent aberration. A careful examination of history over the past century reveals that a very specific elite clique has come to totally dominate and control world affairs. The neocons are not that clique; they are its agents, eagerly pursuing their assignment because of the looting opportunities thereby made available to themselves and their corporate cronies.

"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws."

-- Amshall Rothschild

The elite clique I refer to include the top financial circles in New York and London -- the people who control financial institutions like Chase Manhattan, Citibank, HSBC, Rothschild's, and Lloyds TSB. We're talking about a handful of people, blessed with inherited wealth, and operating mostly behind the scenes. The Rockefeller brothers are the most obvious members of this clique, due to their uncharacteristically high profile in public affairs. As with the Rockefellers, whose wealth came from the 19th Century exploits of oil-baron J.D. Rockefeller, this clique exhibits considerable continuity through the decades, both in terms of its approach to maintaining its power, and in terms of the family trees and connections that characterize its membership.

I won't repeat here the story of how this particular elite gained its power. Suffice it to say that the financing of wars, when governments are desperate for funding, has been one of the primary vehicles by which this clique has gained its wealth and power. It would be a gross understatement to say that this clique "influences governments". It would closer to the truth to say that the U.S. and British governments are owned, lock stock and barrel, by this clique, a fact which is symbolized by this thing we call `national debt'. The Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of England, the IMF, and the World Bank are all directly controlled by this clique and its agents and banks. Presidents and Prime Ministers are groomed in their careers, and selected for their turn in office, based on which particular agendas are being pursued at any given time.

The Bilderberger meetings, the Council on Foreign Relations, and a network of think tanks and foundations serve to rationalize and promulgate the agendas of this clique among lower-level echelons and officials. Through ownership, investment, and other means of influence, this clique controls the mainstream global media and the spin that is applied to the important stories. With their ability to set interest rates and credit availability, and their domination of exchange markets, they exercise decisive control over global finance generally. Their power is extended still further by their close fraternal relationships with key players in the Anglo-American oil cartel and in American and British Intelligence circles.

It is important to make a distinction between ordinary corporations and banks, between corporate power and the power of finance. Ordinary corporations are in the business of making money, and they favor policies that generate economic growth and development. Apart from weapons manufacturers, corporations tend to favor peace and stability in world affairs, as that's when they can grow and develop their markets. When recession hits, corporations suffer, or even go under.

The situation for the big banks is quite different. Banks gain in both good times and bad. In all conditions banks make loans of money they don't actually have, and then collect both the principal and interest. In good times, they also make money on their investments in productive enterprises. In bad times, even though the paper value of their assets may temporarily decline, they are able to foreclose on failing enterprises, pick up bargains by buying faltering enterprises, and they can make money by short-selling assets just before they go down, based on their insider knowledge and their ability to manipulate markets. Economic cycles are like a two-phase pump, and both phases benefit the banks. The banks understand that money is simply an accounting system. For them money is not so much an end in itself, as it is for ordinary corporations, but is more a vehicle of ownership and power. Wars and economic collapses have been intentionally engineered by this elite Anglo-American banking clique throughout the past century, as this elite has systematically sought to maintain and consolidate its power.

The reason why the Anglo-American bankers in particular are running things, as opposed to other financial elites elsewhere, has to do with the immense wealth and influence that was accumulated during the heyday of the British Empire, the close fraternal relationships between London and New York banking circles, and a particular strategy of financial dominance. That strategy has very much do with oil, but oil profits are not the main issue. The main issue is that every nation, since the early 20th Century, must have oil to operate.

The strategy is very simple and very effective. If you can control the sources of oil, and if you also control the currency in which oil is traded, and the price of oil, then you have your hand on Archimedes' lever: "Give me a lever long enough, and a fulcrum, and I can move the world". Yes the profits from oil are considerable, but control over oil is much more important -- it gives you control over every nation's economy, their ability to wage war, etc. This strategy was adopted by British elites prior to Word War 1, was also adopted by American elites, and has been the core geopolitical strategy of the dominant Anglo-American alliance to this day.

We are not talking here about a gross mechanism, where elites say, "Do what I want or I'll withhold oil from you." The game is more subtle, having to do with the price of oil, and the kind of loans a nation can get to deal with its development needs, etc. Ultimate power is financial power, and oil-dominance, in today's world, is the key to financial power. Through intrigue and pressure from this clique, OPEC nations accept payments for oil only in dollars. Every nation must therefore accumulate dollars, making dollars artificially valuable, and thereby financing U.S. deficits. This influx of capital is called "petrodollar recycling". This petrodollar wealth then finds its way to London and enters the `Eurodollar market', where funds can be recycled into unregulated global investments. Thus both New York and London banks are able to grab their share of the profits from the oil-dominance strategy. Oil company profits are simply one more source of funds that end up being invested in banker-controlled investment portfolios. Ordinary corporations are powerful, but they play within the game whose rules are set by the banking elite.

This is the context in which we need to examine current events. It is this historical context that leads me to interpret current events in terms of the Four Horses.

For anyone interested, there is a fine new book about the delusions and perils of religion:

The End Of Faith
Sam Harris

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0393327655/qid=1136035781/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/102-3464098-9806543?n =507846&s=books&v=glance

For an antidote, see the new Internet religion:

The Church Of Reality

http://www.churchofreality.org/

Perhaps coincidently, I saw the following bumper sticker the other day:

AFTER THE RAPTURE
CAN I HAVE YOUR CAR?

Molly Ivins may have said it best: "The full-throated roar of a free people exercising their constitutional right to free speech can be a little deafening at times." This is certainly a case in point.

Seriously, though, if you sum up enough random scale-of-one-to-five guesses, you get a number precise to infinitely many decimals, right? Isn't this how almost all ratings data - student ratings of professors, the relative worth of spotted owls, the likeability of businesses, etc., etc. - are compiled?

This reminds me of a favorite graph using delightfully parsimonious data - see http://www.venganza.org/ and scroll down. Shows the relation between Global Average Temperature versus the Number of Pirates. The whole site is worth checking out and is guaranteed to offend the uber-religious who lack senses of humor or for that matter, common sense!

Enjoy and Happy Date Change! We are at the same point in our orbit around a star that we were a year ago!

Casey

As someone who is planning on being "left behind", I can hardly wait for the rapture to come.  The phrase "don't let the screen door hit you in the ass" comes to mind.  And think of the demand destruction without all those pickup trucks heading to MalWart after church every Sunday!  Of course, NASCAR will be out of business too - how much fuel is used at a typical NASCAR rotary advertising festival?

Have all you people missed the main point??? The Rapture Index is STILL in the RED!!!  Murray

From an unnamed source, I have sad news to report:   When Yahweh and son originally designed the Rapture, they based their pulley system on the average person weighing 150 or less which was probably the case in Biblical times.   Now when all the megasized Christians--and Lord knows they're everywhere--try to ride that golden string upward, we can expect massive failures and a rain of blubber such as the planet has never seen.

Getting left behind will be no picnic.

I wonder how people who believe in the rapture account for the fact that violence has declined globally since the early 1990's? Read,

The Peace Epidemic
The world isn't so dangerous after all.
By Timothy Noah
http://www.slate.com/id/2133226/

which references,

The Human Security Report 2005

If there can be a Rapture Index, why can't there be a Peak Oil Index?  The ideas are similar:  you can give an idea of how close a future event may be, without going out on a limb by predicting an actual date.

My Inaugural Address at the Great White Throne Judgment of the Dead, after I have raptured

out billions!

At:  My Inaugural Address (PDF File)  
Main site at:  My Inaugural Address  

Your jaw will drop!