Classic Post requests?
Posted by Prof. Goose on December 30, 2005 - 8:43pm
One of the posts from the "early days" (cough all of seven months ago) that really brought TOD onto the radar screen of the 'sphere was this one by HO:
http://www.theoildrum.com/classic/2005/06/picture-of-depletion.html
What other posts on TOD Classic (note the link in the right sidebar) should we revisit or update or talk about some more?
“So one may almost say that the theory of universal suffrage assumes that the Average Citizen is an active, instructed, intelligent ruler of his country. The facts contradict this assumption.”
—James Bryce (1909, 35)
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I encourage you to leave new comments in this story, so you can take advantage of Scoop's superior comment capabilities.
BTW, the only Lower 48 P/Q versus Q plot that I have found so far is on the Wolf at the Door website. Based on my projection, the Lower 48 peaked at 48% of Qt. The Lower 48 and the North Sea (at 52%) are the two regions in the world that peaked (without any political upheavals), approximately as predicted, around the 50% mark. Note that they clustered on either side of the 50% mark.
There is probably enough content on this site for a lengthy book. An FAQ/index on classic posts would be an excellent resource for newbies to quickly locate the best material in the archives.
People are already up to their ears in information. We really need a good primer that is succinct and compelling--so that smart people are snared.
Can TOD put together a series of a few posts--the early ones discussed perhaps?--that lays out the argument for PO for the "virgin" reader and won't scare them off?
[The suggest primers to the right don't seem to satisfy the conditions I mentioned. I like M Savinar's but he's not basic enough and seems (to me anyhow) that he launches into debunking arguments that the first-timer won't get]
The problem is that unless you scare people a little bit, they simply won't care. There are all kinds of misperceptions out there about how easy it will be to switch over to some other fuel source. Or people read in the newspaper about a billion barrel discovery and think that our problems are solved.
Then again, you cannot oversell it either. If you predict firm dates of some sort or another then you run other risks. Lately I have been telling people that the thinking is that it could be "this decade".
I think it is much easier now that so many familiar media outlets have covered it. In most cases, I'd give people what format they are familiar with and likely to accept as valid. The key for any information source is do you trust it? Put yourself in the other person's shoes and ask that question before you present yourself to them.
The attitude you convey when talking about anything is important. Do you speak with confidence or are you coming across as pushing something you are desperate to believe yourself? The further along you are in your own journey of discovery on the topic the better you will be at giving a more dispassionate and credible presentation. Perhaps if you are just learning about this say so and ask if you can run some ideas by the other person.
I tend to speak very non-chalantly about it now. "We are probably peaking now or within this decade," with a sort of expectation, implicit in my tone, that this is really not controversial at all. And because this is what I firmly believe I come across as perfectly honest and straightforward too. At least I hope so!