<What would we have predicted for Kuwait?The Oil Druma linear extrapolation of oil consumption by demand growth, production growth, and demand elasticity>

Weekend Open Thread...

Posted by Prof. Goose on January 21, 2006 - 6:14pm
Topic: Miscellaneous

because it's thread-a-licious...

87 comments on Weekend Open Thread...

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steverino on January 21, 2006 - 6:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
here's a tidbit about a delay by at least a year of the iranian field Azadegan by the japanese firm Inpec.... others have commented on the delays associated with new supply.....but they intend to continue come nukes or high water...got your high water pants in the ready?

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Leanan on January 21, 2006 - 7:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
The new issue of Discover has an interview with Amory Lovins, author of Winning the Oil Endgame:

http://www.discover.com/issues/feb-06/features/energizer/

Article is free for now, but will probably be put behind a paywall in a couple of weeks.

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solarfan on January 21, 2006 - 8:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Leanan,
What a cool article!  I can't necessarily take it all at face value, but I think he really hits the "crux of the biscuit" with

"You don't generally want lumps of coal or barrels of sticky black goo. You want comfort, illumination, mobility, baked bread, and so on."

It really says what I think is truly possible if we make it a top priority - that we don't necessarily have to make huge sacrifices in our lifestyle, if we just focus on being as efficient as possible in all that we do.  We better get to work, though...

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mcgowanjm on January 22, 2006 - 11:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The "We can have our cake and eat it, too"
arguement.

Ain't gonna happen. Here's why.

The nut cutting points:

The US is 5% of the World's pop., using 25% of the HC's,
and borrowing 75% of the cost.

Next, the World is putting 8 Giga Tonnes of CO2 into the
Atmosphere per annum.  Even BP's Browne admits that 7 of those Gt
must be eliminated from yearly output.. But Browne's target to reach, even if he does,
will not stop runaway CO2.

See "Climate Change" quote below.

"It's like saying to a person, `You've got to become an argon breather tomorrow because we're switching away from this oxygen stuff,'" (Julian)Darley said.

And since Kuwait has slashed their reserves in 1/2( and you can slash 300 Billion bbls off Bp's Ultimate World Output because Iraq, Venezuela, Iran, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and later Saudi Arabia then did the same thing),  we have that much less time to fulfill Lovin's fantasy.

How much time?  The Amazon will cease being a Carbon sink in 15
years.  

A further cause for worry is the scientific uncertainty over the "climate sensitivity"of the
model which runs the emissions scenario. The climate sensitivity is a measure of the
temperature rise in a modelling system for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, once the
climnate has reached equilibrium, i.e. In hundreds of years. It takes no account of non-linear
or catastrophic climate changes which could be triggered at certain temperature or
precipitation thresholds, but gives a useful measure to compare models over the narrow
range of CO2 concentrations and temperature rises which we are concerned with in avoiding
dangerous climate change.

In other words-we're in a best guess scenario.

I say the Amazon is stressing now.

The emissions reductions required for energy-intensive developed countries, such as the UK,
will be around 90% on current levels, and will need to be achieved by 2030.
These targets appear challenging, but give an indication of the timescale and scale of
reductions required. Ongoing research on climate sensitivity and positive feedbacks in the
carbon cycle may indicate that a lower ceiling on temperature rise may be necessary to stop
irreversible damage to global ecosystems, implying a lower target concentration of
atmospheric CO2, and on a shorter timescale.
Colin Forrest 6/04/05, revised 14/04/05
The Cutting Edge: Climate science to April 05

So there you have it. We, the World, are caught between running out
of oil, or climate change, in less than 20 years, and we're making zero progress on both fronts.  In fact, if we follow the reasoning of
F. William Engdahl-

If this analysis is accurate, the economic and social consequences will be staggering. This reality is being hidden from general discussion by the oil multinationals and major government agencies, above all by the United States government. Oil companies have a vested interest in hiding the truth in order to keep the price of getting new oil as low as possible. The US government has a strategic interest in keeping the rest of the world from realising how critical the problem has become.

When we, the West, attack Iran,  our hand will be shown to the World.  And, at the same time, we will show, without doubt how we,
the US, intend to resolve both the oil depletion and climate change problem.

Which will mean accelleration of both scenarios.

As Lovelock said

...[C]limate specialists see [the Earth] as seriously ill, and soon to pass into a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years. I have to tell you, as members of the Earth's family and an intimate part of it, that you and especially civilisation are in grave danger.

Our planet has kept itself healthy and fit for life, just like an animal does, for most of the more than three billion years of its existence. It was ill luck that we started polluting at a time when the sun is too hot for comfort. We have given Gaia a fever and soon her condition will worsen to a state like a coma. She has been there before and recovered, but it took more than 100,000 years. We are responsible and will suffer the consequences...

...We are in a fool's climate, accidentally kept cool by smoke, and before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable. [...]

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dissident on January 22, 2006 - 12:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree that little of significance is being done about global warming and peak oil (which most aren't even aware of).  But there are some nonsensical assertions by Lovelock and others that undermine their cause.  The 100,000 year figure is pulled out of thin air, CO2 residence time in the atmosphere is a few centuries not millenia.  Climate models are fully nonlinear.  They cannot resolve the microphysics of clouds since there are not and will not be any time soon computers that can handle the resolution (grid or spectral) that is required (e.g. covering the atmosphere with a 10 micron mesh, or about 4 x 10^34 grid points).  

The fact that cloud processes have to be parameterized in models with 100 km horizontal resolution is a favorite "achilees heel" of the global warming denialists but at least the parameterizations are physically based with a lot of research behind them and do capture the bulk behaviour of clouds.  Current models predict that a doubling of CO2 increases tropospheric humidity by about 50%.  We are not looking at unlivable conditions everywhere but the poles.  This is not to say things will be hunky dory but gigadeath claims based on direct global warming effects are absurd.  If the claims are based on diseases then there is nothing particularly special about global warming as population density and poor sanitary conditions (e.g. SARS, bird flu) are going to happen regardless.

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mcgowanjm on January 22, 2006 - 1:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Right.

The problem comes when scientists begin to quantify/qualify their
errors.

And then find that errors dismissed should have been Chaos
Theory and the Power Laws considered.

I then turn to The Gaussian Curve.  As it has now been
accepted by the Oil Drum Community as valid (Especially since
it affirmed that Kuwait, SA, the UAE, and Iraq were falsely claiming
300 Giga bbls), the same Gaussian Bell Curve shows that
the human population is about to undergo a severe contraction.

Meaning that, at the very least, human pop stabilization will occur
within 5 years.  Think of the implications.

325,000 daily growth in people will be removed every day.

Sometime within the next 5 years.  just from stabilizaton.

James

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LJR on January 22, 2006 - 1:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Who's this WE? I keep hearing about?  All I can think of is the fifth little piggy who went WE! WE! WE! WE! all the way home.

There's no WE that I can see.  Just a bunch of hominid chimp knockoffs wandering around in WalMarts.  Not good material for Lovins' approach.

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Agric on January 23, 2006 - 10:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"We the leeches" is probably what you mean. I'll not argue with that, but maybe what goes round will come round in the near future.
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Johnny on January 21, 2006 - 8:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
What happened to the links that used to be on the left hand side of TOD?  
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steverino on January 21, 2006 - 9:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
...statoil ...140kbbls of production...poof!
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Slippery Slope on January 21, 2006 - 9:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Did not see statoil mentioned at that link?
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Slippery Slope on January 21, 2006 - 9:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This link is better
http://www.norwaypost.no/cgi-bin/norwaypost/imaker?id=21249
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Agric on January 21, 2006 - 9:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hmmm, impending death by a thousand cuts?

We currently have the following known supply reductions:

  • Statoil 140 kbpd (should we include the 118 kbpd condensate?)
  • Nigeria 200 kbpd
  • Russia 200 kbpd
  • GOM 400 kbpd

That's not far short of 1 mbpd, all hands to the pumps folks.
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CassandraOil on January 22, 2006 - 1:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This and China losing control of demand at home explains why we are within a few bucks of a new all-time high on WTI. Even without a catastrophe in Iran we'll be at 90 by summer. With an Iranian bombing adventure in the mix, who knows?

I love how Cheney just comes right out and says, "An oil price spike is better than an Iran with nukes."

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peakearl on January 22, 2006 - 3:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree. However, I have to admit to being surprised and impressed by how well Mexico is holding up at the verge of rapid decline of Cantarell. They produced 95,000 b/d more in Dec than Nov. How long this holds up, I don't know.

http://www.pemex.com/files/dcpe/eprohidro_ing.pdf

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Leanan on January 22, 2006 - 10:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Maybe because there were no hurricanes in Central America in December?
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peakearl on January 22, 2006 - 4:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No hurricanes affecting Mexican oil in November and I'm not sure if any effect in October either. Their production is pretty well protected from hurricanes and the effect of earlier hurricanes was mainly due to evacuation of platforms, not damage, in contrast to US production.
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Leanan on January 22, 2006 - 7:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Are you sure?  I thought at least one of them resulted in Mexican platforms being evacuated.  Epsilon, or something like that.
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peakearl on January 22, 2006 - 8:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You're right about Oct to some degree. Hurricane Stan forced evacuation of 5 platforms and shut loading docks for a short period the first week of October, but is said to have had only small impact on production and no damage to oil facilities. Epsilon was off in the Atlantic much later.
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billp on January 21, 2006 - 9:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Essential travel in New Mexico.

http://www.prosefights.org/msd/msd.htm

Math modeling neat.

http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/supremecourt/cvpa.htm

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steverino on January 21, 2006 - 9:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
sorry...but ya know....the lord taketh away, but he also giveth,viz
Transneft's press service reports that Russia is projecting that 2006 oil exports will reach 265.5 million tons, a 9.7 percent increase over Russia's 2005 oil exports of 241.9 million tons. Following that, Federal Energy Agency official Sergei Oganesyan told reporters that Russia intends to boost output by 1 percent to 2 percent annually.

...9.7 % increase?.. sergei, you gotta lay off the pakalolo!

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dissident on January 22, 2006 - 1:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Perhaps UPI should do its readers a service and give them some context.  Russia's exports outside the CIS increased by 12% in 2005 compared to 2004.

http://www.transneft.ru/press/Default.asp?LANG=EN&ATYPE=8&PG=0&ID=10121

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daveoz on January 21, 2006 - 9:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
What's going on in Russia that they need to do this?
http://www.mosnews.com/money/2006/01/19/strategicreserves.shtml
Russia to Use Strategic Fuel Reserves to Combat Cold

Russia may open up part of its strategic fuel reserves due to the record cold which has encompassed almost all of the country. This information was disclosed by Russia's Energy and Industry Minister Viktor Khristenko who spoke on Thursday, Jan. 19, at a regular government meeting.

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Nate Hagens on January 21, 2006 - 9:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
a)probably to make it appear that they are hurting just as much as the nations they are exporting to. Postive PR spin.

b)possibly they ARE hurting just as much as the nations they exporting to. Marginal cubic foot and all...

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Agric on January 21, 2006 - 9:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Imagine that nearly all the USA was in a freeze of -20 F and parts down to -70 F, what would be happening to fuel stocks, electricity grid?
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Nate Hagens on January 21, 2006 - 10:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ya - it would be a disaster. I didnt mean to belittle whats happening, only point out that they do have the highest NG reserves in the world. Perhaps they cannot ramp up production quickly however?

Incidentally, a russian professor friend of mine just got back from Moscow and explained to me that there is a "Stabilization Fund" that per the contract from the IMF /World Bank, the first $25 of every oil sale stays in Russia but everything above goes to a Russian bank account in New York. I wonder exactly who is stabilizing who...

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dissident on January 22, 2006 - 12:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Your professor friend should lay off the vodka.  Russia paid off the last of its IMF debt in early 2005 (in spite of all the bleating about how IMF loans were squandered in Russia).  Russia has a very small debt to the World Bank and is not in a hurry to clear it since the World Bank makes small directed loans for various reform projects.   The stabilization fund starts accumulating when oil is over $25 per barrel.  Currently it is about $42 billion in size and is aimed at paying off the "Paris Club" debt which after the large debt payments in 2005 stands at about $29 billion.
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Nate Hagens on January 22, 2006 - 1:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
my main point was that the money was in New York, denominated in $$, not that the IMF loan had been repaid. (the implication being that this practice is another flow that supports higher $ forex rates).
Ill tell my friend you said hi though...;)
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SolarDude on January 21, 2006 - 10:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, we are extremely lucky.  Record warmth this winter here in the northeastern US.  It's been a little bizarre.  There's almost no snow on the ground here in Vermont and it was 52 degrees today.  It's saved our energy butts this winter, that's for sure.
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Leanan on January 21, 2006 - 10:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
But will we pay for it next summer?  During hurricane season...
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Atticman on January 22, 2006 - 1:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Don't forget Oklahoma,Texas,Colorado,New Mexico Arizona.Left Wichita Falls ,Tx on Jan-3-06 80 deg and drove to Central Colorado warm there ,no snow to speak of in Southern Rockies.The sun is burning the snow off the highest peaks in Colorado.Scary up there too!
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mh497 on January 22, 2006 - 8:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Russia was able to boost oil exports over the past few years because their own economy hadn't done very well prior, and thus domestic demand was sluggish.

Now that energy prices are roaring and their own economy is going gangbusters (pun not intended..), they want to consume more energy themselves and have the means to pay for it.

You can well imagine what that means for future exports from Russia.

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rtz on January 21, 2006 - 11:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
If something happens involving Iran, could there be oil shortages like there were in '73 and '80?

If we need to buy gasoline or diesel to get to work or school and we can't; our choices are:

Propane
Natural Gas
Alcohol
Hydrogen
Electric

Any off the shelf propane or NG kits will sell out real quick.  With supply/demand issues, will there be enough propane to go around?  How will the additional load on natural gas fare?

What about the supply of 50 lb bags of corn to make alcohol?

http://running_on_alcohol.tripod.com/

You can buy or even have hydrogen delivered to your house(gas or liquid).  Or even rent a hydrogen generator!

http://www.airgas.com/

How many 12v batteries can you fit in your car or truck?  How many will it hold if they weigh ~40lbs each?  Need about six to eight thousand dollars to convert your existing car or truck over to electric... :( (at least you'll be able to drive!)

It's going to be quite a surprise when modern day civilization as we know it grinds to a halt...

http://www.cloudelectric.com/

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billp on January 21, 2006 - 11:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
try bicycle.

Deffeyes explains.

regards

http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/nsa/nsa10232005/nsa.htm

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rtz on January 22, 2006 - 1:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I've thought about it and considered it.  The school I'm currently attending is 25 miles each way..  I wish I could get more speed out of a road bike..

Supposedly, this bike would do 200mph on rollers... 45mph on the road...

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8793/bike1aq.jpg
http://img65.imageshack.us/img65/2531/bike17wh.jpg
http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/377/jetbb9yr.jpg
http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/4017/record9zz.jpg
http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/8307/ub110ia.jpg

(what speed can one maintain on a normal road bike?  10mph.. 2.5 hours?  Would be good exercise..)

Tempting...

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8313/800x600dsc071076ml.jpg

Wouldn't you all rather have an electric motor under your hood instead of that maintenance prone, polluting engine that's under there now?

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/1382/itsinbig0hp.jpg

No oil changes, timing belt, water pump, oil leaks; none of that.

Bonus electric pics:

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8304/mc0226li.jpg
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8771/mc0325gs.jpg
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/1456/megavoltbat8vm.jpg
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/7618/motorcompletebig0ui.jpg
http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/8456/motorbolted37xl.jpg
http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/5052/rearbatteries9jn.jpg
http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/20/rearpassengerside6un.jpg
http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/2116/neonl4vx.jpg
http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/6955/vwmotor16nu.jpg

http://www.driveev.com/

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markincalgary on January 22, 2006 - 10:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I commute by bike (in Canada, year-round) and competed in triathlons 10 years ago. I consider myself somewhat fit, but there's still plenty of "meat" on my bones.

Cycling seems to be a good short-term solution for many people. My first day of training for a triathlon, I was able to maintain 25 kph (15mph) for 40km (25 miles). Eventually, I was able to do 40km in an hour, but that was an all-out once-a-week effort on a bike that wouldn't stand up to commuting for very long. For daily commuting, 25kph is a realistic average after a couple of weeks for most.

At 25 miles, that's a 100 minute commute. I'm a dedicated bike commuter, but 40 minutes is where I draw the line.

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prole on January 22, 2006 - 11:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
One just needs the "right" bicycle to make the commute manageable.

http://www.flevobike.nl/images/2004vers/ketelmeer-voor-zij.jpg

Enjoy

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wkwillis on January 22, 2006 - 12:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The right bike being described as one with a motor for when you are not in the mood for exercise, and with a spare car included in case it rains and you are not in the mood to get wet, or in case it snows and you are not in the mood to die.
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Donal on January 22, 2006 - 2:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I love the lines of the Versatile velo, but I wonder how long I would last amongst all the SUV drivers talking on their cell phones.

BTW, Ben Stein played apologist for gasoline prices on CBS Sunday Morning.

And, tonight on 60 Minutes:

THE OIL SANDS - Bob Simon reports on the oil boom in Alberta, Canada, where the oil sands produce a million barrels a day and hold reserves eight times those of Saudi Arabia. Draggan Mihailovich is the producer.

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Twilight on January 22, 2006 - 2:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Ooh - look at that nice flat terrain!  He's really movin' along.  I'll bet it would be a blast down the hills aroud here.  Which is just my way of saying that different places will require different solutions.  

I would love to have one of those though!

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billp on January 23, 2006 - 10:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't know what is going to happen.

But we did sell our 10-12 mpg gas guzzler, white ford.

http://www.prosefights.org/sellford/sellford.htm

I bought green rabbit in response to 1980 oil price spike to commute to sandia labs.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/bpayne37/green/green.htm

Reading all of your well thought-out responses sure is fun for a senior citizen ... 45 days younger than saddam!

Best and enjoy my senior citizen project of trying to get better gas mileage out of grey rabbit on my essential travel projects.

http://www.prosefights.org/msd/msd.htm

The math stuff is fun too.

http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/supremecourt/cvpa.htm

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billp on January 22, 2006 - 12:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If something happens involving Iran, could there be oil shortages like there were in '73 and '80?

Maybe.

http://www.prosefights.org/baltimoresun/shanebowman.htm

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