DrumBeat: October 29, 2006
Posted by threadbot on October 29, 2006 - 9:19am
Topic: Miscellaneous
China limits exports of energy intensive commodities
China plans to increase taxes on exports of metals, oil and steel in an effort to contain excess investment in energy intensive industries, and simultaneously will reduce tariffs for the import of commodities, reported the Finance Ministry in Beijing....“These changes are geared to limit export of energy intensive products since the growth of these resources effectively means China is exporting energy, which it lacks”, argued Feng Fei a researcher at the Development and Research Center of the State Council, the Chinese cabinet.
Big oil may have to get even bigger to survive
The international giants are in trouble, with reserves shrinking, taxes and costs rising, and producing nations reneging on deals or nationalising their assets. The answer to their problems could be massive mergers.
Five ways to make a difference
World demand for natural gas to exceed oil by 2020
The world demand for natural gas would increase in the coming decades and exceed the demand for oil by 4.4 percent yearly until 2020, a report issued by Kuwait- based Global Investment House said on Saturday.The report also predicted that the proportion of world natural gas to total global energy would rise to 28 percent in 2030 from 2005's 23.5 percent.
Norway Oil Industry Chief Fears Investment Drop
The director general of the Norwegian Oil Industry Association, or OLF, said Friday he fears an imminent drop in investment levels in the nation's oil and gas sector could impact future production and Norway's position as the world's third-biggest oil exporter."Activity is very high, we're at an all time-high when it comes to investment...but I fear a drop in investment to come," Per Terje Vold said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.
US energy secretary announces $450 million for coal research
ASHLAND, Kentucky - US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman announced $450 million (euro355 million) in grants during the next decade to further research into technology that would lessen the environmental impacts of coal use.
Oil majors go silent as shadow of US regulator grows bigger
Singapore - A crackdown by US regulators on energy trading may make some physical oil markets more unpredictable and opaque by prompting major companies to cut off communications with market media.Chevron Corp followed ExxonMobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell this August in curbing the exchange of information between its oil traders and the publishers and news agencies that report on crude and product markets.
What are the principal energy stakes in the next few decades?Patrick Criqui: Sometimes I say that to achieve sustainable energy growth, like Ulysses, we have to sail between Scylla and Charybdis. The first risk is a scarcity of cheap oil and gas resources, as evidenced these days by the threat of peak oil (and peak gas). The second risk is climate change. But we can't count on a scarcity of oil and gas resources to solve the problem of climate change.
It's a badge of economic success -- or excess -- that can be seen from space.The gargantuan development of Alberta's oilsands is visible from beyond the ozone layer and promises to be more apparent as the planet's insatiable thirst for its bounty increases, says Dan Woynillowicz of the environment watchdog Pembina Institute.
"One of the most alarming things the UN has documented is the sheer footprint of the oilsands," says Woynillowicz.
Morales' Gas Nationalization Complete
LA PAZ, Bolivia - President Evo Morales completed his ambitious oil and gas nationalization plan early Sunday with the last-minute signing of contracts allowing several international companies to continue operating in Bolivia under state control.
Gazprom is raising $69 billion to revive gas production
MOSCOW: Gazprom, the world’s largest natural-gas producer, is raising investments to $69bn through 2009 to develop new fields amid concerns the company may not meet soaring demand in Russia and Europe.
Ten years to save the planet from mankind
The Stern Report will tomorrow reveal that if governments do nothing, climate change will cost more than both world wars and render swathes of the planet uninhabitable. Can the world find the will to act?
Australia: Nuclear power will 'worsen drought': nuclear uses 25% more water than coal.
Africa ‘faces catastrophe’ unless West acts on climate change
Africa will go “up in smoke” unless the international community acts to curb climate change. A coalition of the UK’s leading development and environment agencies argue that global warming is already having a serious impact on Africa and will get much worse unless urgent action is taken now.
[Update by Leanan on 10/29/06 at 8:46 AM EDT]
Protesters seize oil station in Nigeria
YENAGOA, Nigeria - Protesters demanding jobs and aid took over an oil pumping station run by an Italian oil firm in Nigeria's volatile southern delta region, forcing the company to shut the flow of oil, a Nigerian security official said Sunday.
Iraq, China to revive 1997 oil deal
BEIJING - China and Iraq are reviving a $1.2 billion deal signed by Beijing and Saddam Hussein's government in 1997 to develop an Iraqi oil field, Baghdad's oil minister said Saturday.
Volkswagen begins constructing first Russian plant
"But we are delighted more than anything with the production of 115,000 cars a year that Russian citizens will buy, because that will increase their well being," Gref added in comments cited by Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency.
Securing future energy will be difficult but doable
Lou Grinzo is the grass roots, where change in America always begins.A technical writer with a degree in economics, Grinzo has worked for IBM and Microsoft Corp.
Since the 1973 oil crisis, he's been, in his words, an "energy geek" — fascinated by the relationship between energy supplies and economics.
Alarmists have long predicted America's demise. But Joel Kotkin says the declinists are just as wrong now as they have been in the past.
Have oil supplies peaked globally?
It looks as if the ongoing tug-of-war between the oil bulls and bears is heating up.That provides the big question as to whether global oil supplies have peaked, or if there are additional reserves hidden away in the Earth's recesses that have only begun to be tapped.
Foster Wheeler gets Moneefa contract
Saudi Aramco and Foster Wheeler have signed a front-end engineering and design contract for the Moneefa oilfield development, which is expected to add 900,000 barrels per day of crude oil by mid-2011.
My initial thought was, will this cause an increase in retail prices of many imported products from China?
Emissions should be calculated, like efficiency, throughout the entire production/consumption process. Don't hold your breath on that one.
As for the article, it talks about commodities, not finished products, an important distinction. Still, there's no doubt prices for and at Wal-Mart will rise. China, so keen on export, underestimates its growing domestic demand, which rises with the economy, at over 10% a year.
Which in turn may also be behind the decision to slow down commodities and/or half-products export. If they can't keep feeding the rising appetite at home, there's trouble looming.
1.3 billion people have seen a dangling carrot. Better not take it away.
From the above, we can already clearly see how inadequate that well-intentioned plan is. Since a car produces 1/3 of its pollution before it hits the showroom, the card should certainly apply to those purchases as well, if it has to have any serious meaning and effect.
I see the carbon card a good idea in the opposite direction - for rebating the tax on a certain carbon allowance back to the people. This would make it much more fair and socially acceptable.
Not 1/3. According to the ILCA, it's 10%.
A simple carbon tax will roll the cost in automatically. That's why it's so important.
Dirty from cradle to grave
If you'd paid attention, you would have noticed that your link talks of things like "cubic meters of polluted air", a rather elastic measurement (if you concentrate or dilute the emissions, you can make the numbers into whatever you want them to be). Last, it's a newspaper article duplicated on a personal site. You should be citing - and reading - the original source; there's no telling what the reporter decided to leave out.
Frankly, it looks as though the difference is largely down to the amount that the vehicle is driven and the Heidelberg research including the eventual disposal, which the Carnegie Mellon research left out. Europeans drive less so that manufacture is a bigger percentage, Americans drive more so manufacture is a smaller percentage.
My initial thought was, will this cause an increase in retail prices of many imported products from China?"
My take on that is that they're trying to contain the exportation of the raw materials...not the finished product. They can probably get more for the raw materials elsewhere and thus export it rather than use it domestically for their own finished products export. It may very well turn out to be a wash, or could lower prices of finished products from China.
The article stated that China planned to raise taxes on exports for copper, nickel, aluminum, steel, and other energy-intensive commodities and to ALSO lower import tarrifs on same. This would serve to decrease domestic production and thereby lower the domestic energy expended on such production. Essentially, it appears to be an indirect (and some might say, sneaky) way of importing energy, and thus freeing up the displaced energy for domestic use.
I agree that whether this move will raise prices for certain Chinese export goods is a tough call. I suppose it depends on the differential between what it really costs the Chinese to produce these commodities and what they will have to pay after they start importing them. The various currency relationships now become a factor that could further complicate things.
I also sense that this move might indicate a growing desperation on the part of the Chinese regarding future energy supplies. Increasing one's dependence on imported commodities tends to also increase one's vulnerability to supply disruption. Then again, the question would be: is it better to be more dependent on imported copper, nickel, etc. or to be more dependent on imported fossil fuel? The Chinese appear to have decided that the former is the lesser of two evils.
There is also the possibiliry that certain rare earths which are utilized in high tech defense industries may also be included. If so the implications for US defense industries will be enormous.
Jimbojim39
I've always had a hard time understanding things related to international currency matters, balance of payments, and the like.
Let's see: if China reduces it's exports of commodity metals, then that would lessen the inflow of dollars (and other foreign currencies). That I think I understand. Now if they also encourage the import of commodity metals, then that would imply that they are willing to get more Chinese currency out there in exchange for tangible materials that they can then manufacture into value-added products, much of which is for export and which will result (as it does now) in an influx of dollars, etc.
So, I have a bit of difficulty in understanding what is being done to whom and what is flowing where. Will they now buy copper from the US and thus help our balance of payments problem (but increase our domestic industrial energy consumption) ? Or what?
One thing I think might happen is that by taking a certain amount of commodity metals off the market, China could cause a rise in the global market price of such, depending, of course, on the current size of their commodity metals exports in relation to the volume typically traded.
I don't fully understand this, but I get a feeling that is is not a good development for the US.
I'm not enthused about coal-fired anything, but if we need steel and such to put up wind farms and rebuild our rail system, I'm willing to look at the trade-offs.
Yesterday the NY Times had an article about religious groups who are uniting in opposition to the practice of mountain top removal to extract coal from the Appalacian region. It appears that more people are questioning the long-term effects.
Several months ago National Geographic had a good article on mountain top removal and it struck me as an audacious method of terra forming.
Right now, the debate is over whether a more cost efficient process and less hazardous environment for coal miners is worth the destruction of mountains. Later on the scale may tip away from environmentalists as concerns about energy scarcity and unemployment heighten.
Spot on. Energy decline will, perhaps counterintuitively, worsen climate change to such a degree it'll be as if we haven't seen anything yet.
And that is a process already well underway, when you consider that today much more energy is needed to extract fossil fuels, as can be seen in the decline of EROEI numbers for oil, from 100:1 to 20:1 or worse (while at the same time the amount of oil extracted has increased exponentially).
How to flatten an entire mountain range. Wait till they find something 'burnable' under the Himalayas.
That was funny in a macabre sort of way. I am convinced that those who can will burn whatever will burn until there is nothing left to burn.
The Creation: An Appeal to Save Life on Earth
by E.O. Wilson
http://www.7nights.com/asterisk/store-books/product/0393062171/The-Creation-An-Appeal-to-Save-Life-o n-Earth.html
Harvard species guru takes on spiritual side
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15332951/
excerpt
"HOME-BUYING RING GOT STEAL OF A DEAL
Houses bought at inflated prices. Millions in loan proceeds allegedly pocketed. All ending in foreclosure. In Colorado, it's one part of a nation-leading problem.
On an autumn day two years ago, Colorado issued a warrant to arrest Taiwan Lee, 25, a state prisoner who had vanished on parole.
He hadn't gone far. While police looked for him, he bought three houses at inflated prices in Arapahoe County with the help of lenders who put up the entire $1.9 million.
After he was caught and jailed, he managed to buy two more. Until the foreclosures commenced, Lee owned five villas in an affluent gated community while living behind prison bars 150 miles away.
The cast of characters in this foreclosure tale includes drug dealers who went straight from prison to the home-acquisition business, a developer with ties to an international Christian group, a state-licensed real estate broker who saw nothing peculiar and an appraiser who has disappeared.
Taiwan Lee is among a group of former inmates and others accused of buying 17 homes for inflated prices and taking $2.1 million from excess loan proceeds.
On the day Lee bought his fifth villa, another fugitive bought her third in four weeks in the same neighborhood. Cindy Ingram, also wanted for violating parole on drug charges, borrowed $1.8 million for those homes.
Talita James, a convicted cocaine dealer, bought two villas across the street from each other in one day for $1.1 million, promising to occupy them both. Her brother Torrence James and Ervin Camack, both released from federal prisons in Colorado, each bought another villa.
[the article gets better, felons become mortgage brokers then set up a phony home improvement business to siphon profits, identity theft factors in, and the article decribes non-criminal gullible idiots with no income who get involved in puff pricing and then squander their windfall on shopping, trips to Disneyland, gambling, etc.]
Lee's buying spree is an extreme example of something that happens every day in Colorado, the state with the worst foreclosure rate in the United States.
..."We started noticing this phenomenon in 2002, when the price puffs seemed to start at 3 percent to 6 percent in amounts of $6,000 to $12,000," Goodman said. "We now see price puffs of 30 percent or more in amounts over $100,000."
The Post also asked Eibner and Goodman to examine whether inflated prices played a role in 500 recent foreclosures in the Denver area.
Eibner's office successfully traced the multiple listing service history of 292 of them, and Goodman analyzed their list and sale prices. The result: Forty- eight percent of the newly foreclosed homes had sold for more than the original asking price or the listed price on the sale day.
Critics say mortgage companies have little incentive to ferret out inflated sales because they bundle and resell their home loans to Wall Street investors, taking their profits and diluting fraud losses in large pools of mortgage-backed bonds."
full article: http://www.denverpost.com/ci_4567736
Who says crime doesn't pay?
I imagine the biggest customer is pension funds, causing people to see the value of their homes and their pensions shrink at the same time.
The default rate is rolled into the ultimate interest in an actuarial fashion. Therefore anyone who has a mortgage and is making payments is a victim. Now you have an incentive to pay off your mortgage :-)
EHTANOL COULD CORRODE PUMPS, TESTERS SAY
CHICAGO, Oct. 26 -- The farm-produced fuel that is supposed to help wean America from its oil addiction is under scrutiny for its potentially corrosive qualities.
E85, a blend of 85 percent corn-based ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, could be eating away at metal and plastic parts in pumps being used to dispense the fuel at gasoline stations, Underwriters Laboratories, the private product-safety testing group, said this month.
BP, the British oil company, said on Thursday that it would delay the expansion of E85 at its American gasoline outlets until the laboratories certified an E85 dispensing system.
How Long Can the World Feed Itself?
And our little patch of land is getting smaller as the population keeps multiplying.
That is a 26 percent drop in only two years. That is alarming. And we want to use grain to power our SUVs! Methinks the world is far closer to collapse than even most doomers believe. If we throw declining oil production into the above mix, then in less than ten years there could very easily be a worldwide famine.
Ron Patterson
Are humans smarter than yeast, indeed...