DrumBeat: November 19, 2006
Posted by threadbot on November 19, 2006 - 9:30am
Topic: Miscellaneous
US report says Saudi Arabia will raise oil output
DUBAI - The International Energy Outlook 2006, issued by the US Department of Energy, expects Saudi Arabia - the largest oil exporter - to increase its crude oil production from 12 to 18 million barrels per day by 2030.Oil prices are expected to hover between $34 and $96 per barrel in 2030, the report said.
The Arabic version of the report, published by the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre, expects a gradual retreat in oil prices in 2006 and further decline to $47 per barrel by 2014.
Dems take aim at oil company tax breaks
WASHINGTON - House Democrats are targeting billions of dollars in oil company tax breaks for quick repeal next year. A broader energy proposal that would boost alternative energy sources and conservation is expected to be put off until later.
Kazakhstan to Block Chinese Oil Purchase
"We must take extreme measures to stop the agreement on the Karazhanbas," Baktykozha Izmukhambetov said in televised remarks, referring to an oil field that is the biggest asset of Canada-based Nations Energy Co. in the Central Asian nation.
Prodi urged to steer EU on energy
American economist Jeremy Rifkin urged Romano Prodi on Saturday to use his clout in Europe to push the bloc towards a future in which all its energy would come from hydrogen and renewable sources.
Analysis: U.S. nearing emissions control
In the coming months, however, the world will hear a lot from Washington about joining the insiders — the Europeans and other industrial countries committed to reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases. The weight of science, economics and politics is pushing the world's biggest emitter in that direction.
Ethanol production spikes corn prices
Ethanol production may be a two-headed coin for consumers, lowering the cost of fuel but eventually hiking the price of meat, an agricultural economist said Friday.
Al Gore: At stake is nothing less than the survival of human civilisation
Coming soon: a green Bill Gates
INTERNET STOCKS are surging again. And biotechnology still has great promise. But I’m betting that the next Bill Gates, whoever he or she is, will be an environmental entrepreneur. Why? Because despite the recent focus on the potential costs to society of climate change, solving this challenge may also present the greatest economic opportunity of our time.
Toyota plans diesel hybrid car
NAGOYA — Toyota Motor Corp plans to commercialize a diesel hybrid subcompact car as early as 2010 in cooperation with its ally Isuzu Motors Ltd, which is strong in diesel engine technologies, informed sources said Saturday.
From Energy Bulletin: a couple of links to YouTube videos about peak oil. Oil supplies? Don't worry! by Randy Parks, and the short and humorous ImPOssible Mission by Aerobarfilms.
Venezuela Bills Total $17.3 Million in Unpaid Taxes
Venezuela's tax agency said Thursday that French oil company Total SA owes the country US$17.3 million (euro13.5 million) in unpaid taxes from last year.The company has 15 days to pay the amount owed plus a 10-percent fine, the agency said in a statement.
A Troubled River Mirrors China’s Path to Modernity
The polluted Yellow River is being sucked dry by factories, growing cities and farming - with still more growth planned.
Future without oil looks bleak
It took all of time until 1850 to reach the first billion people. The second billion arrived 80 years later in 1930, the third billion arrived 30 years later in 1960 and the fourth billion in 1974. It took 12 years to add the most recent billion.These numbers are scary by themselves, but they are even scarier if we consider what allowed this rapid growth, and then ask two questions, can this growth continue? Do we want it to continue?
No platform in author's gloomy forecast of life without oil
When the applause died down, and guest lecturer James Howard Kunstler completed his talk Thursday night at Rutgers, a man had a question: Why don't you run for office?Kunstler said he was content to be an author. What's more, he confessed, "I inhaled too recently."
Left unsaid was that his message is far too gloomy.
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary19.html
--Jim Kunstler
My thanks to Vanessa for her vocal support.
(Paris helped with the lyrics. Tom & Kat wanted to pitch in but they were otherwise engaged.)
John T. Reed's analysis of Robert T. Kiyosaki's book Rich Dad, Poor Dad
Rat
(or read, read?)
http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=11639116 30-18a80f08-01440
I recently purchased a Jeep Wrangler to replace my worn out 1988 Ford F-150.
Several reasons I had ,since it gets not too good mileage per gallon,yet better than my pickup was getting.
All were doom related. Ability to go almost anywhere , at least where the trees are wide enough, ability to hook implements to it and cultivate the soil. Tough as a hickory knot. Very easy to work on and repair,a nice inline 6.
Does not use high tech lubricants and has actual alemite grease fittings where needed. Uses u-joints in lieu of CV joints.
If I happen to be stranded when a gas crisis occurs, such as back in the early 70's when I was stranded on Interstate 70 in St. Louis trying to get back to the burbs, I can then take off crosscountry. I tried that in my VW bettle and soon blew out the steering worm gear. I made it home but would not have if I wasn't drunk as a greased owl. That allowed me to face the sheer madness that ruled and driving where no fool should have tried to drive in a VW.
That night and the rest of the week are still stuck in my mind as a reminder of just how fast things can go looneytunes.
I had a jeep when stationed in Hawaii and used it to drive the mountains hunting pigs, goats and whatever. That was a WWII made by Ford jeep. This one is far far better. I can also cruise at 70 if need be.
If half of new European cars are diesel engined, I would wager it is more like 60%+ in the large, SUV class vehicles. Pickup trucks this would be even more natural.
It seems to me that, depending on car insurance, the rational 'preparer for the future' owns an older, easily maintained vehicle like your Jeep, and a relatively modern very high fuel efficiency vehicle (like a Citroen diesel, or a Toyota/ Honda/ Nissan micro-wonder).
The latter for day to day driving, shopping and commuting, and the former for when/ if the world goes to pot.
My choice,
Alan
I have a '76 240D and a '87 300 SDL (which may be the greatest car ever made IMO) and while I have abused their fuel systems with varying grades of biodiesel, I have never tried bananas, pureed or otherwise. Biodiesel below the cloud point yes, but never bananas.
I asked several Mercedes mechanics before settling on an 81 to 83 240D, white, manual transmission, low mileage and then spent months on eBay looking for one :-)
The most durable and reliable car M-B ever made ! (i.e. the most durable & reliable car ever made). And economical with the manual transmission.
I burn ~6 gallons/month of oil products but can switch if I need to. A mechanic gave me the "banana" comment. Partially congealed biodiesel CAN be burned apparently. Fuel lubrication not required.
My last car (accidents not withstanding). And 30 mpg when I evaced for Katrina with 3 people w/o cars. 8 hours of stop & go traffic. Sore leg from the clutch, but otherwise a perfect evacmobile :-) Refueled north of Birmingham (hard to do till Tuscaloosa).
Best Hopes,
Alan
That said, you're right; it is big...we call it "Das Boat". 240D's are dandy about town but the W126 is the ultimate touring car. As to mileage in town: 22-21 mpg winter biodiesel, 25-24 mpg summer biodiesel. But on the highway; we've gotten 31 mpg on one trip to Denver and 27-30 mpg is common for cross-county highway driving. Plus the comfort and style! It is cheaper(in diesel and money) to drive the whole family than to fly them.
I am enjoying it while there is still fuel to run it.
However, I think the major reason for the difference is that Europe got "clean diesel" and modern diesel engines so early (mid-1990s??). North Americans really haven't experienced how clean, quiet and powerful a modern diesel is.
I remember during that period... all the car reviews in the UK raved about modern diesel engines... particularly how much mid-range torque they had compared to their petrol equivalents. If I recall correctly... particularly the 1.9 Tdi engine that was fitted to a wide range of vehicles... from Peugeot 205GTI to VW Golf and even VW Shahran people-carrier etc...
There were things the saleslady didn't tell me, though. Being able to haul a ton+ of trailer and payload up mountains without dropping out of top gear was one of them. That 1.9 liter is a torquey little bugger.
Once you get back to the "burbs" cross country, what will you do then?
I haven't lived in the suburbs for almost 20 yrs.
I live in the outback in farming country. My vehicles are licensed as FARM use.
That incident was back in the early 70's.
Everyone around here who works at farming would not think of having anything but a 4WD , and mostly in pickups. Several times a week we are down in areas that require a 4WD. Across fields that are boggy, crossing wet fords, hunting pecan trees, etc.
Extensive psychological profiling of the average SUV buyer shows the same personality, fear of attack, fear of loss of mobility, etc. SUV buyers like to be up high, it's a reptilian brain thing. They like lots of cup holders too, and all kinds of asinine things.
The real "get the hell outta there" vehicle is probably a bicycle, motorcycle, or something utterly Un-American, one's own two feet, assuming one is in good physical shape and can walk some distance - as I said, utterly Un-American.
A lot of people think of escaping to somewhere else, but in reality, it is more fantasy than anything else.
Given a sudden SHTF, I'd expect most Americans to basically sit down and die. Really!
Those who have experienced real poverty will be less shaken, which means a very very few whites in the US, and many of those much-maligned, justifiably malignable, but still present, 3rd world immigrant types.
As for motorcycles, I've seen too many videos on the news of destabilized areas and people getting yanked off their motorcycles and beaten.
And yes, sustained 4MPH walking is really "on the shady side" of jogging. A marathon is 26 miles, and it takes quite a trained runner, without a backpack, to complete one of those.
What am I getting at here..... I can't define it.... let me say that I was amazed more Katrina "refugees" didn't simply take off across country. Most stayed put and waited for Mommy Gov't to take care of 'em. I think a number of people did take off across country but we've not heard about them, but it's tens out of hundreds of thousands. There's a reference on patrick.net of a poster's employee who basically walked to Baton Rouge. Was found with $10 in her pocket looking for a place to sleep. More gumption than almost everyone but still not enough to make it in a real SHTF scenario. (The poster on there loaned her enough to get by, the refugee started her own biz and paid back the loan, every penny - better than all but a vanishingly small percentage of us.)
Sigh. Mobility probably does matter, a lot. As "zero hour" narrowed down to a few hours for Katrina, I remarked to a neighbor I'd probably heist a Harley out of a dealership, and head on outa there - take it to a dealer a state or so away and say, "Well, I've taken quite a test ride, and I've decided not to buy right now", It's not that hard for inexperienced thugs to grab a person off of a bike....
I have vowed to never spend a dollar in Gretna ever again.
I-10 East bridge over entrance to Lake Pontchartrain was collapsed in several sections.
I-10 West had several low spots under water, the deepest over 6 feet deep.
There were some side streets with no more than a couple of feet of foul water and some walked out that way. Uncertainity stopped others.
EVERY DAY BROWNIE SAID RELIEF WOULD BE IN NEW ORLEANS TOMORROW MORNING Those with battery radios spread the word.
Unfair stereotypes.
Looters sharing food & water with others kept most people alive.
Alan
My home was "looted" of a gallon of distilled water, a couple of wine bottles, canned food, cooked meat in the fridge, flashlight & umbrella. Digital camera, computer w/LCD screen and pile of change in plain view were left alone. Damage to door was minimal.
And yes, looting saved lives! My reaction to losing the things you state you lost out of your house would have been, God bless 'em and hope they enjoyed the food and water! I'm sure that roughly approximates your reaction.