Is TOD a better journal than <i>The Economist's Voice</i>?
Posted by Prof. Goose on November 29, 2006 - 10:42pm
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: gas tax, global warming, peak oil [list all tags]
Well, tonight, I wanted you to see some other journal pieces. Under the fold is an online journal piece from Berkeley's online economics journal/press (no, I don't think it's peer reviewed actually, but still...). This is free for you to access with the inclusion of someone's email address. NB:I would never suggest that anyone be surreptitious about such things as using a false email address, let's just understand that.
Anyway, consider this an open thread too. You all deserve it.
http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol3/iss9/art2
SUMMARY:
Proposition 87 reemphasized that Americans don't want the cost of driving to increase: Aaron Edlin suggests a way to reduce driving that may be more politically palatable.



I would disagree with that. What voters didn't like was the uncertainty of how much prices would increase. If Prop 87 had been pushed as a nickel a gallon tax with the proceeds going toward alternatives, I think it would not have been opposed by the oil companies and it would have passed. But just pulling $4 billion from oil company coffers in California was likely to crimp supply down the road, and the opposition used this to scare voters away from the proposition.
by the way, the author of that piece is a full professor of econ at Berkeley.
I think we do better stuff.
Just FWIW, re: 87 - I heard a "community forum" on KPFK (Pacifica) public radio just prior to the elections, and a community activist (who had worked on energy issues) said he thought people (he and others?) were excluded from discussions during the drafting stages, if I understood him correctly.
As with all the other options for using costs to reduce driving (other than running out of oil), it doesn't have a chance in hell of happening.
The article, of course, is no better than many of the pieces written for TOD.
Anyway, I wanted to post the link to my list.
Robert's 2005-2006 Reading List
If anyone has any recommendations based on the books I have enjoyed, I would appreciate hearing them. Incidentally, my favorite book of all time was probably Hyperion (and the sequels). If you know of any books that you believe compare favorably to those, I will pounce on them.
What I have found is that I can walk 5.3 mph without bouncing around too much. So, I put the treadmill on an 8% incline, and I walk uphill for 2 miles, 5 days a week. By gripping the front of the treadmill, I am able to walk and read, and I get my pulse into the target zone. On 2-4 days a week, I lift weights after the walk.
My reading habits have changed over the years. I always loved short science essays. I have perhaps 100 of Isaac Asimov's books; most of them are books of science essays. During most of my life I would read one non-fiction book about every two weeks. I had a very long career as a computer field service engineer. That's a fancy term for computer hardware repairman. I worked on large mainframes, now monsters of the past. I usually only worked when something was broken. This allowed me to do a lot of reading at work. In fact I almost certainly red far more at work than I did at home.
I love astronomy, geology, biology, paleontology and psychology. I have read some philosophy but could never get philosophers to hold my interest because of their writing style. I found Nietzsche and most other philosophers insufferably boring. But Eric Hoffer would certainly be considered a philosopher and his books I could not put down.
Some of my favorites:
The Moral Animal by Robert Wright
Overshoot by William Catton
The Spirit in the Gene by Reg Morrison
The True Believer by Eric Hoffer
The Blank Slate by Steven Pinker
Constant Battles by Steven LeBlanc
The Extended Phenotype by Richard Dawkins
Influence, The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini
The Lucifer Principle by Howard Bloom
Demonic Males by Richard Wrangham and Dale Peterson
Ron Patterson
I have read a lot of Asimov (all of the Foundation books) and quite a bit of Richard Dawkins (although not the one you mentioned). In fact, I have several of Dawkins' books in my bookshelf. Many people have recommended Overshoot to me, but the library here doesn't have it, and I am pretty stingy with my book budget. Maybe the Aberdeen library will have some of these books I have been wanting to read.
Anyway, thanks for the suggestions. I will write them down. Have you read Peter Ward's "The End of Evolution"? That guy is a very unique writer. I liked that book a lot.
Overshoot was written in 1980 and most librarys that ever had a copy has discarded it by now. But it is by far the very best book ever written on the subject. I loaned my original copy out and it never came back. So I bought a second copy. That is how much I wanted to hold onto it.
I have "The End of Evolution" in my library but for some reason I have never read it. I buy books in lots of seven to ten at a time, from discount houses like Edward R. Hamilton, and sometimes before I have read them all I will forget that I have them. But thanks for recommending it. I will start on it tomorrow.
Ron Patterson
There is also an interesting but brief discussion in it of the general confusion that surrounds the notion of 'genetic fitness'. I remember being pulled up short by that because at the time I was engaged in an argument with someone over the topic, and I was therefore surprised to see Dawkins pointing out various common but incoherent ways of thinking about it. Most people here will take it as some sort of straightforward concept, but it is not (or at least was not, when Dawkins was writing).
If I am lucky I still have the book lying about.
One problem for Dawkins (though it is not his fault) is that he is extensively misread by both people on the left and the right. The left see in his ideas some demon that wants to conclude 'So let's oppress the poor!' (I know because I have wasted time arguing with such people, and I'm a leftist myself...) The right sees that same thing, and cheers. But Dawkins is a careful writer, and I do not recall seeing anything like that in anything he has written... hence getting into pointless arguments with people that believe, in the teeth of the evidence, otherwise.
Anyway, read TEP.
Religion Explained: The Evolutionary Origins of Religious Thought by Pascal Boyer
or the works of Marvin Harris which are a materialistic, energy-resourced based perspective on history and sociology.
Since religion is a major ingredient in the stew of energy geopolitics it is important to understand how it unites and divides people in ways that are largely independent of the
dogmas of the particular creed.
Bloomberg: Mexican House Speaker suggests a heavy security force may be required to keep Calderon's Inauguration from turning into a huge
Congressional Mosh-pit:-----------------------------------------
Mexico House Speaker Prepared to Ensure Calderon's Inauguration
By Thomas Black
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The speaker of Mexico's lower house said he may ask for security personnel to ensure President-elect Felipe Calderon can be sworn in Dec. 1 after legislators scuffled over control of the congressional dais yesterday.
Lawmakers from Calderon's National Action Party and the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution camped out at the dais last night after fighting to gain control of the area where Calderon is scheduled to take his oath of office. In the traditional ceremony, Calderon would receive the presidential sash from President Vicente Fox at Congress.
``I don't want to reach that scenario,'' said Speaker of the House Jorge Zermeno in a television interview on a channel operated by Grupo Televisa SA. ``But if it's necessary, I have the ability to request help from public security.''
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I suggest putting the protestors, with AMLO included too, on one side of the convention, but not actually ejecting them, with the foreign dignitaries and their respective Secret Services between them and the Presidential Podium. Let them chant and hold banners all they want--after all, that is their right. Calderon's invitation to AMLO would be seen as a huge gesture to reach out to the Mexican-Left--AMLO would be able to convince his delegates to not charge the podium.
I don't want to see our Secret Service duking it out with any Mexican Senators or Representatives!Calderon could also agree for a split-screen broadcast: 1/2 his swearing-in ceremony, 1/2 the Congressional protestors. If AMLO was offered equal, but later TV rebuttal time to Calderon's Acceptance speech, then the protestors, from either side, would have no reason to try and drown out either leader's speeches by shouting-- both leaders could calmly present their views to the Mexican Population at large.
If our US 2008 election is this contentious--would this also work on our Capital Hill?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Who was it who said recently that Mexico doesn't transfer power peacefully. It must be done through revolution.
Luis Obrador's parallel government is an interesting idea that bears watching.
Maybe we need to form a "peak-oil" parallel government in the United States. No power to tax (dang!), but it could debate and pass model legislation that would help put the country on the road to energy sanity if enacted.
It would not be a confrontive parallel government, but a thoughtful and perhaps inspiring one.
Thxs for responding, and I like your train of thought. Many countries around the world may not be able to smoothly transition. We don't even know if the US, with all it's present resources, will do it.
AMLO may find the best postPeak course ahead for himself is to lead his people back to a somewhat Indigenous biosolar lifestyle. The history of the world has been to crush these people, but maybe the time has come to foster their growth. Mexican Federales gunning down citizens will only make things worse.
Consider the alternative method of Richard Rainwater's desire to install himself in his local farming community as indicative of a wiser way to jumpstart this reduced shared carrying capacity indigenous effort; bringing plants and horticultural knowhow is better than bullets. I hope he becomes a community leader to transform this area into a model for relocalized permaculture.
Calderon has the difficult task of trying to appease the addicted Mex. detritovores just as Pemex is headed down the tubes, and the coming American recession will greatly diminish remittances back home from the Mexicans working in the US. He needs to somehow tax the crap out of the monopolies and the rich without them deserting the country, and using these funds to more equalize the economic polarization to try and headoff civil war/revolution. Easier said than done, of course.
Using Foundation principles of predictive collapse and directed decline: it is easy to see Pemex, already poorly managed and full of corruption, to get steadily worse if it is not allowed to fully exploit its resources by being hamstrung by the Mex govt. Even then, geologic constraints will force it's eventual demise.
I think Calderon and AMLO would be wise to fully inform their people on Peakoil, then Calderon would push for maximum conservation and efficiencies to forestall detritus decline as long as possible, while AMLO would work to jumpstart a huge back-to-the-land indigenous permaculture movement. Two Foundations working: one for Detritus Powerdown, the other for Biosolar Powerup. Overall results would be aimed at making the postPeak transition as smooth as possible.
In my earlier posting, Mexico currently leads the world in deforestation--huge numbers of AMLO's people could be employed replanting and regaining the ancient skills and methods of the Mayans & Aztecans, but with modern, more civilized, but modest enhancements. Calderon could be leading the transformation of Mexico's transport by using AlanfromBigEasy's ideas to stretch their energy peso as far as possible.
If nothing like this happens, and widespread civil war or revolution breaks out--then we should expect a flood of humanity heading north across our borders into Cascadia and other possibly sustainable areas postPeak. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thanks
Jim
Thxs for responding. I am no survival or ecological expert, so please take this info with
large doses of caution. Compared to the Asphalt Wonderland of Phx and our miniscule amounts of rainfall, Cascadia, and other areas further north and east, offers a better chance for survival.The North American Southwest climate is forecasted to get even drier with Global Warming [GW], and Peakoil will make further pumping of water from already declining acquifers more problematic, and as we all know: survival starts with having a good source of potable water.
I think all areas are in Overshoot, therefore none are sustainable till after the Dieoff sequence, but that maybe just my doomer mindset. But as GW forces the migration northward of all adaptable plant and animal species--humans will follow: read James Lovelock and Gaia writings. Living near RRs will be advantageous short-term so that one can be re-supplied with societal products, but longer-term: seaports or river towns are better at providing cross-habitat shared carrying capacity.
If you currently live in Alaska, good for you. As time goes on-- I expect you will have many new neighbors unless your State Govt. sets up an autonomous area to forbid further in-migration. The Alaskan Powers That Be are probably just as corrupt as humans everywhere: they will be more concerned with making a short-term buck than insuring the best chance for true multi-generational sustainability and minimal violence. Good luck and best wishes for the Xmas Holidays.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
GGS is a fundamental for my research design course (esp. the last chapter), even if I am not an anthropologist. Diamond has been a favorite for as long as I can remember.
I also recommend Influence by Bob Cialdini. Sharply written psychology, almost Gladwellian.
Of course, I have always been a fan of SF, especially cyberpunk--back to the days of Gibson and Neuromancer.
Lately, I've been reading a lot of consciousness stuff. Pinchbeck (Breaking Open the Head) and a few others.
I have Catton in my TBR pile. I've only skimmed it. Of course, I think the Freeman Dyson book is next, then I was slated to reread my favorite book (I am a big fan of re-reads), Genius, the biography of one of my idols, Richard Feynman.
That's another big interest of mind. I have spent a lot of time thinking about the nature of consciousness. What causes it? Are there varying degrees? Do dogs have some degree? In 2003 I read Dennet's "Consciousness Explained", but I felt like the title was misnomer.
I like Feynman a lot. I read "Surely You Must be Joking" several years ago, and became really fascinated with him. I knew he was a great scientist, but I hadn't realized what an interesting person he was. Then as you can see on my list the first book I read this year was "The Meaning of it All." I will have to check out Genius.
The River That Flows Uphill: A Journey from the Big Bang to the Big Brain
I'm a slow reader (not voracious). Only half way through The Naked Brain by Restak M.D. But "I" "think" (all of these being misnomers) that if you want to understand "consciousness" from a scientific vantage point, you should read books like this one that are based on scientific experiments conducted on the human brain to see how it actually functions as opposed to conjecturing on the operations of the brain based on what we "feel" it to be doing.
Example: when I am sick and have a fever, I "feel" that it is cold outside. But my feelings are incorrect because it is not cold outside as can be established scientifically with a thermometer. Instead, more heat is leaving my body and my nerves are registering that phenomenon to my brain as meaning that it is cold outside. What we "feel" and what is actually happening are often two different things.
Example #2: I "feel" that there will always be cheap gasoline at the gas station for me because it's always been like that before as far as I personally remember (assuming I have Alzheimer's or denial syndrome and don't remember the 1973 oil embargo).
As for consciousness of self, there are parts of the brain that model the observed behavior of self and then analyze it. There are parts of the brain that model the observed behavior of others and then analyze that. Therfore we are conscious not only of self but of others based on this constant modeling of the external world and constant reexamination of the validity of our internal models.
:-)
Another suggests that you didn't randomly slip when entangling it with "dice".
Aside from the brain of an individual, may I suggest that we also have a larger "social brain", the thing by which a society, a civilization debates within itself and finally comes to a conclusion (i.e. a voted upon decision)?
Where is the center of TOD's brain?
I noticed few if any books on economics on your list. Furthermore, hardly any economics books were recommended in the posts (Dryki's post here has a few). A great book, and a quick, entertaining read is The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki. I read it partly at the suggestion of Halfin who regularly posts here at TOD. In fact, I used the prediction markets at Tradesports and Iowa Electronic Markets to follow the mid-term elections this year; they were as good or better than any of the polls. Halfin, if you're reading this I would be interested in your reading list.
I have yet to find a book from a colleague which would "explain" consciousness (I'm a neurologist).
For the philosophic background I would recommend the essays by Henri Bergson on consciousness who makes some very good points about the relation between time and our consciousness.
From a neuropsychologic perspective, the attention processes, the tools of our self-consciousness are very well described by Antonio Damasio ( the best modern author in the field of neuropsychology) allready cited by Stuart Staniford.
For myself, in clinical practice I define full consciousness through orientation in time and space, attention to the surrounding. The result of full consciousness beeing a correct anticipation of the immediate future. The cause of consciousness for me is the encounter between the input from our senses and the processes of intention in the wake state. It is a function of the brain as a whole.
Of course I would be glad to expand a lot, but for that we should find another place to discuss.
My primary interest is what causes it. Where is the source? If I had nothing but a brain, would I be conscious? I think so. How about if I removed some small section of my brain? How about if my brain was frozen for 30 years and then reanimated. Would I regain consciousness? Would all of my memories have been wiped out when the electrical signals ceased? Could a machine gain consciousness?
Those are the questions that I would love to answer. Those are the questions that I like to meditate on, but I really wish I knew the answers.
Asking those questions really calls for a definition of consiousness, which is already quite difficult (hence my clinical approach). This was one of my first experiences in neurology : Pr Hommel in Grenoble asked me how I would tell if someone was consciouss. My first guess was to state that the person would answer more or less appropriately my questions. But then he asked, what for persons who have lost their language (aphasia) ? Ok, let's look at his behaviour. But what when he is locked-in ? And so on. Things are getting also difficult when you try to define consciousness for yourself. When you dream you can have an illusion of consciousness, same for psychotic brains in a delusional state. People with confusion don't term themselves unconscious but an outer observer can't qualify them as fully conscious.
But I can try to answer some of your questions assuming that we both have the same intuitive idea of consciousness.
* First of all, a single brain lesion isn't most often enough to induce unconsciousness. It is like memory, there isn't one region which is responsible for consciousness. This is not to be confounded with arousal, which is a function of our brain stem (the reticula of the pons and the mesencephalon to be exact). A lesion of these regions induces a state of coma because of the lack of arousal. In the same order, a lesion of the anterior thalamus can cause sleep, which is also a state of unconsciousness because of an active sleep state.
The most interesting case is confusion, which is a lack of consciousness not being induced by sleep or coma. There is no single lesion of the brain which has been ascribed to causing a confusion. Confusion results most often from altered metabolic states, diffuse lesions of the brain. Of course a right forebrain lesion can induce confusion but here also the regions injured are quite large and most often reversible.
So overall, I wouldn't ascribe consciousness to a single brain region.
* Is memory only a function of our brain signals (i.e. synaptic function)? Here I can only speculate. We have a lot of types of memories. We distinguish between procedural memory, episodic memory, semantic memory, emotional memory, short-term memory and so on. A very famous experiment is the learning of a maze by rats. You can teach a rat to find its way through a maze. After that, to sum it up quickly, there is no single region in the brain which will suppress this memory (this doesn't mean that there aren't specific regions in our brains dedicated for memorisation, especially for our episodic memory which relies on the hippocampal-limbic circuitry). On the other hand the neuroscientists have demonstrated the long term modifications of synaptic behaviour and connections in the process of learning.
In the state of reduced metabolism in hypothermia, we have shown that people can recover their memories afterwards. So if we would freeze our brains and wake it up 30 years later, I can imagine that we won't lose our memories (pure speculation, has never been done).
- Would I be consciouss if my brain where isolated ? Some experiments have adressed the deafferented brain. In a few seconds the normal alpha-rythm on the electroencephalogram disappears and is replaced with delta rythms, hallmarks of brain disease or deep sleep. Very theoretically we could imagine that we still could have some cognitive processes but the lack of sensorial feedback would quickly let our mind evade its state I think. I think sensorial input is essential and drives our consciousness (after all the aim of consciousness is to prepare our motor schemes to be as coherent as we wish with respect to our surroudings).
- Could a machine become conscious ? Some believe they can, I don't believe that. It is a favorite subject of debate among philosophers since descartes. My main objection is that our consciousness is driven by a mechanism of intention for which I don't have the beginning of an understanding but which is certainly fed by inputs from our hypothalamu and limbic lobes (and the dopaminergic connections favored by AMPOD). Machines as we make them are driven by input from a clock which doesn't exist in our brain. We can make a machine adapt to the surrounding with input based on previous knowledge or even teach them some discriminating functions in the model of neuronal networks, but we aren't able to make a machine capable of evolving from newtonian mechanics to the theory of relativity. As yet we don't know how to teach machines to be astonished. Here we return to the importance of emotions in the state of consciousness very well underscored by Antonio Damasio.
I hope that you have understood some of my text here, despite my bad English (it is the first time I wrote about this in English ...).I go with neurobiology when it comes to brain matters; they know more about it than philosophers. Defining consciousness by what it does may be the best way we will ever have of understanding it. It is hard for people to grasp the nature of emergent processes. Consciousness seems to be a "thing" that should have a physical embodiment, i.e. a part of the brain you can poke. But consciousness is an abstract process; it doesn't really exist anywhere.
I liken it to a hurricane. A hurricane is composed of air molecules and water vapor, there is nothing special about these molecules. At the boundary of the hurricane, you can't say whether a molecule belongs to the hurricane or not. They are all just part of the atmosphere. The hurricane is just a bunch of molecules bouncing off each other. The phenomenon we call a hurricane appears to exist, but there is no part you can uniquely identify as "being the hurricane". The hurricane does not really exist, except as a particular behavior of molecules that we humans call "a hurricane".
In a similar way, consciousness does not really exist. If you look into a conscious brain, all you find is a bunch of neurons signaling to each other. We can only define consciousness by its overall behavior. If you are unhappy