Is TOD a better journal than <i>The Economist's Voice</i>?
Posted by Prof. Goose on November 29, 2006 - 10:42pm
Well, tonight, I wanted you to see some other journal pieces. Under the fold is an online journal piece from Berkeley's online economics journal/press (no, I don't think it's peer reviewed actually, but still...). This is free for you to access with the inclusion of someone's email address. NB:I would never suggest that anyone be surreptitious about such things as using a false email address, let's just understand that.
Anyway, consider this an open thread too. You all deserve it.
http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol3/iss9/art2
SUMMARY:
Proposition 87 reemphasized that Americans don't want the cost of driving to increase: Aaron Edlin suggests a way to reduce driving that may be more politically palatable.
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
I would disagree with that. What voters didn't like was the uncertainty of how much prices would increase. If Prop 87 had been pushed as a nickel a gallon tax with the proceeds going toward alternatives, I think it would not have been opposed by the oil companies and it would have passed. But just pulling $4 billion from oil company coffers in California was likely to crimp supply down the road, and the opposition used this to scare voters away from the proposition.
by the way, the author of that piece is a full professor of econ at Berkeley.
I think we do better stuff.
Just FWIW, re: 87 - I heard a "community forum" on KPFK (Pacifica) public radio just prior to the elections, and a community activist (who had worked on energy issues) said he thought people (he and others?) were excluded from discussions during the drafting stages, if I understood him correctly.
As with all the other options for using costs to reduce driving (other than running out of oil), it doesn't have a chance in hell of happening.
The article, of course, is no better than many of the pieces written for TOD.
Anyway, I wanted to post the link to my list.
Robert's 2005-2006 Reading List
If anyone has any recommendations based on the books I have enjoyed, I would appreciate hearing them. Incidentally, my favorite book of all time was probably Hyperion (and the sequels). If you know of any books that you believe compare favorably to those, I will pounce on them.
What I have found is that I can walk 5.3 mph without bouncing around too much. So, I put the treadmill on an 8% incline, and I walk uphill for 2 miles, 5 days a week. By gripping the front of the treadmill, I am able to walk and read, and I get my pulse into the target zone. On 2-4 days a week, I lift weights after the walk.
My reading habits have changed over the years. I always loved short science essays. I have perhaps 100 of Isaac Asimov's books; most of them are books of science essays. During most of my life I would read one non-fiction book about every two weeks. I had a very long career as a computer field service engineer. That's a fancy term for computer hardware repairman. I worked on large mainframes, now monsters of the past. I usually only worked when something was broken. This allowed me to do a lot of reading at work. In fact I almost certainly red far more at work than I did at home.
I love astronomy, geology, biology, paleontology and psychology. I have read some philosophy but could never get philosophers to hold my interest because of their writing style. I found Nietzsche and most other philosophers insufferably boring. But Eric Hoffer would certainly be considered a philosopher and his books I could not put down.
Some of my favorites:
The Moral Animal by Robert Wright
Overshoot by William Catton
The Spirit in the Gene by Reg Morrison
The True Believer by Eric Hoffer
The Blank Slate by Steven Pinker
Constant Battles by Steven LeBlanc
The Extended Phenotype by Richard Dawkins
Influence, The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini
The Lucifer Principle by Howard Bloom
Demonic Males by Richard Wrangham and Dale Peterson
Ron Patterson
I have read a lot of Asimov (all of the Foundation books) and quite a bit of Richard Dawkins (although not the one you mentioned). In fact, I have several of Dawkins' books in my bookshelf. Many people have recommended Overshoot to me, but the library here doesn't have it, and I am pretty stingy with my book budget. Maybe the Aberdeen library will have some of these books I have been wanting to read.
Anyway, thanks for the suggestions. I will write them down. Have you read Peter Ward's "The End of Evolution"? That guy is a very unique writer. I liked that book a lot.
Overshoot was written in 1980 and most librarys that ever had a copy has discarded it by now. But it is by far the very best book ever written on the subject. I loaned my original copy out and it never came back. So I bought a second copy. That is how much I wanted to hold onto it.
I have "The End of Evolution" in my library but for some reason I have never read it. I buy books in lots of seven to ten at a time, from discount houses like Edward R. Hamilton, and sometimes before I have read them all I will forget that I have them. But thanks for recommending it. I will start on it tomorrow.
Ron Patterson
There is also an interesting but brief discussion in it of the general confusion that surrounds the notion of 'genetic fitness'. I remember being pulled up short by that because at the time I was engaged in an argument with someone over the topic, and I was therefore surprised to see Dawkins pointing out various common but incoherent ways of thinking about it. Most people here will take it as some sort of straightforward concept, but it is not (or at least was not, when Dawkins was writing).
If I am lucky I still have the book lying about.
One problem for Dawkins (though it is not his fault) is that he is extensively misread by both people on the left and the right. The left see in his ideas some demon that wants to conclude 'So let's oppress the poor!' (I know because I have wasted time arguing with such people, and I'm a leftist myself...) The right sees that same thing, and cheers. But Dawkins is a careful writer, and I do not recall seeing anything like that in anything he has written... hence getting into pointless arguments with people that believe, in the teeth of the evidence, otherwise.
Anyway, read TEP.
Religion Explained: The Evolutionary Origins of Religious Thought by Pascal Boyer
or the works of Marvin Harris which are a materialistic, energy-resourced based perspective on history and sociology.
Since religion is a major ingredient in the stew of energy geopolitics it is important to understand how it unites and divides people in ways that are largely independent of the
dogmas of the particular creed.
Bloomberg: Mexican House Speaker suggests a heavy security force may be required to keep Calderon's Inauguration from turning into a huge
Congressional Mosh-pit:-----------------------------------------
Mexico House Speaker Prepared to Ensure Calderon's Inauguration
By Thomas Black
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The speaker of Mexico's lower house said he may ask for security personnel to ensure President-elect Felipe Calderon can be sworn in Dec. 1 after legislators scuffled over control of the congressional dais yesterday.
Lawmakers from Calderon's National Action Party and the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution camped out at the dais last night after fighting to gain control of the area where Calderon is scheduled to take his oath of office. In the traditional ceremony, Calderon would receive the presidential sash from President Vicente Fox at Congress.
``I don't want to reach that scenario,'' said Speaker of the House Jorge Zermeno in a television interview on a channel operated by Grupo Televisa SA. ``But if it's necessary, I have the ability to request help from public security.''
--------------------------------
I suggest putting the protestors, with AMLO included too, on one side of the convention, but not actually ejecting them, with the foreign dignitaries and their respective Secret Services between them and the Presidential Podium. Let them chant and hold banners all they want--after all, that is their right. Calderon's invitation to AMLO would be seen as a huge gesture to reach out to the Mexican-Left--AMLO would be able to convince his delegates to not charge the podium.
I don't want to see our Secret Service duking it out with any Mexican Senators or Representatives!Calderon could also agree for a split-screen broadcast: 1/2 his swearing-in ceremony, 1/2 the Congressional protestors. If AMLO was offered equal, but later TV rebuttal time to Calderon's Acceptance speech, then the protestors, from either side, would have no reason to try and drown out either leader's speeches by shouting-- both leaders could calmly present their views to the Mexican Population at large.
If our US 2008 election is this contentious--would this also work on our Capital Hill?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Who was it who said recently that Mexico doesn't transfer power peacefully. It must be done through revolution.
Luis Obrador's parallel government is an interesting idea that bears watching.
Maybe we need to form a "peak-oil" parallel government in the United States. No power to tax (dang!), but it could debate and pass model legislation that would help put the country on the road to energy sanity if enacted.
It would not be a confrontive parallel government, but a thoughtful and perhaps inspiring one.
Thxs for responding, and I like your train of thought. Many countries around the world may not be able to smoothly transition. We don't even know if the US, with all it's present resources, will do it.
AMLO may find the best postPeak course ahead for himself is to lead his people back to a somewhat Indigenous biosolar lifestyle. The history of the world has been to crush these people, but maybe the time has come to foster their growth. Mexican Federales gunning down citizens will only make things worse.
Consider the alternative method of Richard Rainwater's desire to install himself in his local farming community as indicative of a wiser way to jumpstart this reduced shared carrying capacity indigenous effort; bringing plants and horticultural knowhow is better than bullets. I hope he becomes a community leader to transform this area into a model for relocalized permaculture.
Calderon has the difficult task of trying to appease the addicted Mex. detritovores just as Pemex is headed down the tubes, and the coming American recession will greatly diminish remittances back home from the Mexicans working in the US. He needs to somehow tax the crap out of the monopolies and the rich without them deserting the country, and using these funds to more equalize the economic polarization to try and headoff civil war/revolution. Easier said than done, of course.
Using Foundation principles of predictive collapse and directed decline: it is easy to see Pemex, already poorly managed and full of corruption, to get steadily worse if it is not allowed to fully exploit its resources by being hamstrung by the Mex govt. Even then, geologic constraints will force it's eventual demise.
I think Calderon and AMLO would be wise to fully inform their people on Peakoil, then Calderon would push for maximum conservation and efficiencies to forestall detritus decline as long as possible, while AMLO would work to jumpstart a huge back-to-the-land indigenous permaculture movement. Two Foundations working: one for Detritus Powerdown, the other for Biosolar Powerup. Overall results would be aimed at making the postPeak transition as smooth as possible.
In my earlier posting, Mexico currently leads the world in deforestation--huge numbers of AMLO's people could be employed replanting and regaining the ancient skills and methods of the Mayans & Aztecans, but with modern, more civilized, but modest enhancements. Calderon could be leading the transformation of Mexico's transport by using AlanfromBigEasy's ideas to stretch their energy peso as far as possible.
If nothing like this happens, and widespread civil war or revolution breaks out--then we should expect a flood of humanity heading north across our borders into Cascadia and other possibly sustainable areas postPeak. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thanks
Jim
Thxs for responding. I am no survival or ecological expert, so please take this info with
large doses of caution. Compared to the Asphalt Wonderland of Phx and our miniscule amounts of rainfall, Cascadia, and other areas further north and east, offers a better chance for survival.The North American Southwest climate is forecasted to get even drier with Global Warming [GW], and Peakoil will make further pumping of water from already declining acquifers more problematic, and as we all know: survival starts with having a good source of potable water.
I think all areas are in Overshoot, therefore none are sustainable till after the Dieoff sequence, but that maybe just my doomer mindset. But as GW forces the migration northward of all adaptable plant and animal species--humans will follow: read James Lovelock and Gaia writings. Living near RRs will be advantageous short-term so that one can be re-supplied with societal products, but longer-term: seaports or river towns are better at providing cross-habitat shared carrying capacity.
If you currently live in Alaska, good for you. As time goes on-- I expect you will have many new neighbors unless your State Govt. sets up an autonomous area to forbid further in-migration. The Alaskan Powers That Be are probably just as corrupt as humans everywhere: they will be more concerned with making a short-term buck than insuring the best chance for true multi-generational sustainability and minimal violence. Good luck and best wishes for the Xmas Holidays.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
GGS is a fundamental for my research design course (esp. the last chapter), even if I am not an anthropologist. Diamond has been a favorite for as long as I can remember.
I also recommend Influence by Bob Cialdini. Sharply written psychology, almost Gladwellian.
Of course, I have always been a fan of SF, especially cyberpunk--back to the days of Gibson and Neuromancer.
Lately, I've been reading a lot of consciousness stuff. Pinchbeck (Breaking Open the Head) and a few others.
I have Catton in my TBR pile. I've only skimmed it. Of course, I think the Freeman Dyson book is next, then I was slated to reread my favorite book (I am a big fan of re-reads), Genius, the biography of one of my idols, Richard Feynman.
That's another big interest of mind. I have spent a lot of time thinking about the nature of consciousness. What causes it? Are there varying degrees? Do dogs have some degree? In 2003 I read Dennet's "Consciousness Explained", but I felt like the title was misnomer.
I like Feynman a lot. I read "Surely You Must be Joking" several years ago, and became really fascinated with him. I knew he was a great scientist, but I hadn't realized what an interesting person he was. Then as you can see on my list the first book I read this year was "The Meaning of it All." I will have to check out Genius.
The River That Flows Uphill: A Journey from the Big Bang to the Big Brain
I'm a slow reader (not voracious). Only half way through The Naked Brain by Restak M.D. But "I" "think" (all of these being misnomers) that if you want to understand "consciousness" from a scientific vantage point, you should read books like this one that are based on scientific experiments conducted on the human brain to see how it actually functions as opposed to conjecturing on the operations of the brain based on what we "feel" it to be doing.
Example: when I am sick and have a fever, I "feel" that it is cold outside. But my feelings are incorrect because it is not cold outside as can be established scientifically with a thermometer. Instead, more heat is leaving my body and my nerves are registering that phenomenon to my brain as meaning that it is cold outside. What we "feel" and what is actually happening are often two different things.
Example #2: I "feel" that there will always be cheap gasoline at the gas station for me because it's always been like that before as far as I personally remember (assuming I have Alzheimer's or denial syndrome and don't remember the 1973 oil embargo).
As for consciousness of self, there are parts of the brain that model the observed behavior of self and then analyze it. There are parts of the brain that model the observed behavior of others and then analyze that. Therfore we are conscious not only of self but of others based on this constant modeling of the external world and constant reexamination of the validity of our internal models.
:-)
Another suggests that you didn't randomly slip when entangling it with "dice".
Aside from the brain of an individual, may I suggest that we also have a larger "social brain", the thing by which a society, a civilization debates within itself and finally comes to a conclusion (i.e. a voted upon decision)?
Where is the center of TOD's brain?
I noticed few if any books on economics on your list. Furthermore, hardly any economics books were recommended in the posts (Dryki's post here has a few). A great book, and a quick, entertaining read is The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki. I read it partly at the suggestion of Halfin who regularly posts here at TOD. In fact, I used the prediction markets at Tradesports and Iowa Electronic Markets to follow the mid-term elections this year; they were as good or better than any of the polls. Halfin, if you're reading this I would be interested in your reading list.
I have yet to find a book from a colleague which would "explain" consciousness (I'm a neurologist).
For the philosophic background I would recommend the essays by Henri Bergson on consciousness who makes some very good points about the relation between time and our consciousness.
From a neuropsychologic perspective, the attention processes, the tools of our self-consciousness are very well described by Antonio Damasio ( the best modern author in the field of neuropsychology) allready cited by Stuart Staniford.
For myself, in clinical practice I define full consciousness through orientation in time and space, attention to the surrounding. The result of full consciousness beeing a correct anticipation of the immediate future. The cause of consciousness for me is the encounter between the input from our senses and the processes of intention in the wake state. It is a function of the brain as a whole.
Of course I would be glad to expand a lot, but for that we should find another place to discuss.
My primary interest is what causes it. Where is the source? If I had nothing but a brain, would I be conscious? I think so. How about if I removed some small section of my brain? How about if my brain was frozen for 30 years and then reanimated. Would I regain consciousness? Would all of my memories have been wiped out when the electrical signals ceased? Could a machine gain consciousness?
Those are the questions that I would love to answer. Those are the questions that I like to meditate on, but I really wish I knew the answers.
Asking those questions really calls for a definition of consiousness, which is already quite difficult (hence my clinical approach). This was one of my first experiences in neurology : Pr Hommel in Grenoble asked me how I would tell if someone was consciouss. My first guess was to state that the person would answer more or less appropriately my questions. But then he asked, what for persons who have lost their language (aphasia) ? Ok, let's look at his behaviour. But what when he is locked-in ? And so on. Things are getting also difficult when you try to define consciousness for yourself. When you dream you can have an illusion of consciousness, same for psychotic brains in a delusional state. People with confusion don't term themselves unconscious but an outer observer can't qualify them as fully conscious.
But I can try to answer some of your questions assuming that we both have the same intuitive idea of consciousness.
* First of all, a single brain lesion isn't most often enough to induce unconsciousness. It is like memory, there isn't one region which is responsible for consciousness. This is not to be confounded with arousal, which is a function of our brain stem (the reticula of the pons and the mesencephalon to be exact). A lesion of these regions induces a state of coma because of the lack of arousal. In the same order, a lesion of the anterior thalamus can cause sleep, which is also a state of unconsciousness because of an active sleep state.
The most interesting case is confusion, which is a lack of consciousness not being induced by sleep or coma. There is no single lesion of the brain which has been ascribed to causing a confusion. Confusion results most often from altered metabolic states, diffuse lesions of the brain. Of course a right forebrain lesion can induce confusion but here also the regions injured are quite large and most often reversible.
So overall, I wouldn't ascribe consciousness to a single brain region.
* Is memory only a function of our brain signals (i.e. synaptic function)? Here I can only speculate. We have a lot of types of memories. We distinguish between procedural memory, episodic memory, semantic memory, emotional memory, short-term memory and so on. A very famous experiment is the learning of a maze by rats. You can teach a rat to find its way through a maze. After that, to sum it up quickly, there is no single region in the brain which will suppress this memory (this doesn't mean that there aren't specific regions in our brains dedicated for memorisation, especially for our episodic memory which relies on the hippocampal-limbic circuitry). On the other hand the neuroscientists have demonstrated the long term modifications of synaptic behaviour and connections in the process of learning.
In the state of reduced metabolism in hypothermia, we have shown that people can recover their memories afterwards. So if we would freeze our brains and wake it up 30 years later, I can imagine that we won't lose our memories (pure speculation, has never been done).
- Would I be consciouss if my brain where isolated ? Some experiments have adressed the deafferented brain. In a few seconds the normal alpha-rythm on the electroencephalogram disappears and is replaced with delta rythms, hallmarks of brain disease or deep sleep. Very theoretically we could imagine that we still could have some cognitive processes but the lack of sensorial feedback would quickly let our mind evade its state I think. I think sensorial input is essential and drives our consciousness (after all the aim of consciousness is to prepare our motor schemes to be as coherent as we wish with respect to our surroudings).
- Could a machine become conscious ? Some believe they can, I don't believe that. It is a favorite subject of debate among philosophers since descartes. My main objection is that our consciousness is driven by a mechanism of intention for which I don't have the beginning of an understanding but which is certainly fed by inputs from our hypothalamu and limbic lobes (and the dopaminergic connections favored by AMPOD). Machines as we make them are driven by input from a clock which doesn't exist in our brain. We can make a machine adapt to the surrounding with input based on previous knowledge or even teach them some discriminating functions in the model of neuronal networks, but we aren't able to make a machine capable of evolving from newtonian mechanics to the theory of relativity. As yet we don't know how to teach machines to be astonished. Here we return to the importance of emotions in the state of consciousness very well underscored by Antonio Damasio.
I hope that you have understood some of my text here, despite my bad English (it is the first time I wrote about this in English ...).I go with neurobiology when it comes to brain matters; they know more about it than philosophers. Defining consciousness by what it does may be the best way we will ever have of understanding it. It is hard for people to grasp the nature of emergent processes. Consciousness seems to be a "thing" that should have a physical embodiment, i.e. a part of the brain you can poke. But consciousness is an abstract process; it doesn't really exist anywhere.
I liken it to a hurricane. A hurricane is composed of air molecules and water vapor, there is nothing special about these molecules. At the boundary of the hurricane, you can't say whether a molecule belongs to the hurricane or not. They are all just part of the atmosphere. The hurricane is just a bunch of molecules bouncing off each other. The phenomenon we call a hurricane appears to exist, but there is no part you can uniquely identify as "being the hurricane". The hurricane does not really exist, except as a particular behavior of molecules that we humans call "a hurricane".
In a similar way, consciousness does not really exist. If you look into a conscious brain, all you find is a bunch of neurons signaling to each other. We can only define consciousness by its overall behavior. If you are unhappy with this functional definition, the question "what is consciousness?" is otherwise unanswerable.
(Add "The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World", Jack S. Cohen & Ian Stewart" to your reading list!)
neuroil, you explained the neuroscience very well, but what is your view of the "quantum" theory? Is the conventional operation of neurons etc sufficient to allow consciousness, or does it require something else?
If you make a model, you can validate it either by replication (which isn't yet allowed for the quantum brain) or try to see what you can infer from it and then test the hypotheses inferred against experimental observation. I don't know yet if people have gone so far for the quantum theory.
Also, what is your native language? All the Scandanavians and Dutch that I have ever run across are very fluent in English, so that would be my guess. But you mentioned Grenoble, so I guess you might be French?
Seems to me (to us 'ems) that you and neuro oil are talking past each other. You want to know what the mechanisms are for establishing the thing that you feel inside of yourself as being "consciousness" and he is talking about how to determine whether a living breathing creature does or does not at the moment have that attribute.
But the first question is whether the language we use, i.e. words like "consciousness" presume things that are not true. It's sort of like a bunch of alchemists debating with each other over which part of the world they should explore to find the Philosopher's Stone, presuming in that debate that the existance of the Stone itself is unquestionable.
Sometimes a complete paradigm shift is needed before you can even pose questions like the one you try to pose.
My assumption is that you may percieve the human brain as being a Von Neumann style computing machine where the "focus" of attention is on where "the one" program counter is pointing to. I think the science is well established that the human brain operates more like a parallel MIMD system (many different instructions/ideas executing at the same time on many different data sets) rather than a single thread Von Neumann machine.
That part of you that is making all the noise in your head and claiming he is you right now, actually is not the real you but is just your mini-Me. So when he claims he is your "consciousness", he is actually bullshitting himself, err bullshitting yourself. I know this sounds weird. Maybe you should start by reading about case histories where people have their corpus collasum severed so that it is unquestionable there are two separate brains operating in the same body and yet the person reports a consciousness of being just one "me" --where that is usually the left hemisphere speech center providing that report of only a singular "me" (mini-Me) being present. Simple tests prove that this assertion is incorect and that there are actually two streams of consciousnesses operating at the same time and receving inputs from different sensors (i.e. right eye connects to the left brain and left eye to the right brain).
Now you can understand why the sheeple are confused or unconscious about Peak Oil. They are confused or unconscious even about what they themselves really are (what their "consciousness" is is). :-)
I don't know how to satisfactorilly define "consciousness", but also "intelligence", "intention" and such. Therefore, from a neuroscientist perspective we more often refer to the "tools of intelligence" (language, memory, praxias, gnosias...), the "components of consciousness" (i.e. selective attention, orientation, memory...) or the "driving forces" (i.e. emotions) of intention.
But if we want to come to understand ourselves better, we need indeed to recognize that in our brains a lot of processes function in parallel. A lot is going on here behind the scenes.
A quite striking way is to examine the brain in a phylogenetic manner. We have learned that a lot of structures still functionning in our brains come from previous brains through evolution. All these structures have some internal coherent organisation and a lot of them can in some occasion take over control.
You have cited the case of the section of the corpus callosum. For those who don't know, this can lead to a disorder (which fortunately doesn't most often last for more than 3 weeks) called "diagonistic apraxia". This means that the patients left hand opposes itself to the actions of the right hand. This is a most weird condition which indeed left the student of neurology I was 15 years ago in a perplex state for some months. The patient I examined was the first with diagonistic apraxia (a 55 year old woman, who had a deficit in nicotinamide which had led to a necrosis of her corpus callosum). I wasn't prepared having only read about it in books. During examination I asked her to write down her name. As soon as she began, her left hand grasped violently the pen and threw it through the room. She couldn't quit her chamber, as soon as she opened the door with her right hand, her left hand slammed the door back again.
After that what is left of our consciousness ?
I am now a frenchman. But I only moved to France when I was 14 years old. Before that I was Dutch indeed and I have lived some years near Düsseldorf in Germany.
I lived in Düsseldorf for a couple of years myself: From 1999-2001. I came to love the European lifestyle.
Personally I have always considered consciousness something of an exaggerated mystery. We experience it as deeply mysterious because of our own subjectivity, arising from the (meaningless) question, 'Why am I me rather than someone else?' From an objective perspective - that is, considering as a given a group of conscious individuals - this makes no sense.
But anyway, our knowledge about this and pretty much all things is so fragmentary and full of dead ends that we really know nothing about anything. It is beginning to appear to me that the universe really is deeply and fundamentally incomprehensible to us (another conclusion of Gray's, by the way).
Franz,
It sounds like you are talking about the thing I refer to as the "mini-Me" (have you seen the Austin Powers' movie where he --the big Dr. Evil, has this little midget following his every move and explaining it?)
I suggest you may be behind the times on what scientists know about the human brain. Much of what they have discovered would freak the general populace out of their "rational" minds. The public is not ready to hear the truth. Maybe 30 years from now. Maybe never because PO will hit first and then the Dark Ages will follow.
Why Kitty, what big teeth you have.
Interesting to hear you were a field service engineer. I was a tech writer for FSUs (with HP).
I had a lot of respect for you guys.
-Bart
Some books Id recommend:
"Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes"
by Duffie and Beckman
"The Independent Home" by my friend Michael Potts
"A Golden Thread: 2500 years of solar history" I believe by an author name Buti
"The Solar Decision Book" by Richard Montgomery
"Direct Use of the Suns Energy" by Farrington Daniels
Im sure the Photovoltaic Design Manual by Solar Energy International is good.
Most of these books are old but they are still valid. If you want to put something together that works - these are a start.
My recommendation would be to at least to start doing some research into home energy efficiency. If you dont have time to research it yourself contact my friends at
http://www.natresnet.org/
They have local experts most anywere in the US.
The theoretical nature of these discussions will be soon nearing an end.
Please keep impressionable people away from that book. ;-) (just kidding!)
Maybe as M. King Hubbert's name is recognized- Farrington Daniels will also be known.
To those reading this who are unaware of who he was- go to Wikipedia.
Where in eastern Montana? I am in Billings, and we had a heat wave roll in overnight. It was 19 degrees F when I woke up this morning (a 25 degree improvement over yesterday).
I would echo the advice to learn about solar. I read one (last year, I think; I would have to check my list) and at some point I will install solar panels. But not in Scotland.
Where the oil is - Richland County. At least the wind died down last night. -20 wind chill sucks. Makes you think about btu's, not philosophy.
Billings is in the banana belt. It gets interesting around Lustre/Poplar/Glasgow.
I agree about Dawkins and Diamond--fabulous writers.
For what it's worth, what does this adjunct English prof read?
Would you believe I've come to detest fiction? It just doesn't seem worth my time anymore. Still, their are classics I hold close to my heart, like Faulkner's early novels, and some short stories.
My faves are: energy, evolution ... and bibilical criticism.
I've read ALL the pertinent energy books of the last three years (except, ironically enough, John Howe's book, and we're both from Maine. Haven't been able to find it yet.)
Under evolution, Dawkins, Diamond and Dennett (the "three Ds?")
Two highlights of my (intellectual) life were seeing Dennett and Pinker give talks here in Maine.
And everyone should read the magnificent dismantling of the traditional psychological from a evolutionary point of view,
The Nurture Assumption, by Judith Rich Harris
If you want advice about the fascinating and under-reported field of biblical criticism, how the bible came to be written, what an incredible shock it is, just ask.
It's 6:30 am.
OK, I'll bite! Lets hear it.
To misquote Ehrman: We have no autographs (original manuscripts) of anything in the New Testament, including the gospels. We don't even have copies of them, nor copies of copies of them. We have manuscripts several generations removed from the originals, which were copies by scribes who altered the texts, accidentally, purposely. Then go on to his full history of the New Testament.
Other titles include: "Who Wrote the Gospels?" and "Gospel Fictions" by Randall Helms; "The Complete Gospels," ed. by Robert J. Miller, which gives a full account the four gospels plus the remains of gospels that were left out of the canon; Burton Mack's books "Who Wrote the New Testament" and "The Lost Gospel Q." It's a fascinating field, and often reads like a detective story: scholars are forced to make inferences on the basis of the scantiest of evidence.
For Old Testament studies (which is, of course, really the Hebrews' bible), Richard Elliot Friedman is probably the most accessible writer: "Who Wrote the Bible?" (by which he means the Torah), and the fascinating "Hidden Book in the Bible," which is about the earliest strand of prose in the Hebrew bible. He works in the "documentary hypothesis" (wiki gives and excellent overview of the topic), which states that the Torah was composed not by Moses but by a series of anonymous scribes.
Oh boy, what a field! And how ignorant the public is about it!
Richard Feynman is my favorite physicist of all time just because of his take on life in general.
I'm currently reading "Devil in the White City" by Erik Larson which is an interesting book about the Chicago World's Fair in 1893.
Any books about Nikoli Tesla always interest me. He was at the Chicago World's Fair by the way and his alternating current system was used to light up the Internation Exposition.
There is a difference between being influenced and being swayed. For example, The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil just blew my mind. But I don't think his vision of the future is realistic. It influenced me by presenting some very interesting possibilities, but I wasn't convinced by his arguments. It was, if you will, the anti-Kunstler.
What Kunstler did was hammer home a number of important points to me for the first time. That doesn't mean I agree with everything he has written. But I think his work was very important. It really got me to thinking about "What If" with respect to Peak Oil. That's when I decided I need to get more involved.
I read the Long Emergency while in America, and then the Geograpraphy of Nowhere after returning to Europe, and what was most abstractly frightening to me was just how well a book written in the early 1990s decribed the America I had just visited, almost 15 years later. The 'abstractly' is because I don't live in the U.S., and because much of what he wrote about so skillfully and factually were similar to ideas and conclusions I had reached after first experiencing life in Germany 10 years before he wrote Geography of Nowhere. Nothing had really changed in that time, except those 15 (or 25) years are now gone.
While Kunstler the man is as flawed as any of us, Kunstler the author describing life as lived in America is someone hard to dismiss, which leads to the disturbing conclusion that he just may be describing reality, and not merely offering his own opinions about things he hates passionately.
And quite honestly, and being the contrary sort I am, there is little to be found to refute in his basic assumptions, even if the details and his forecasts are imperfect - the piracy one being a personal favorite of an outlandish prediction likely included more for its dramatic flair than based on reasonable extrapolation. Whether in terms of swaying or influencing, his insights and arguments generally remain a solid challenge to anyone who assumes life in America as lived by most Americans will continue without changes long into the future.
At the end of the day we have to come to terms with the end of endless growth and the fact that most of the population of the earth never got a chance to join the party. The false dream of America will haunt the world for years to come.
I just got done reading a excellent link on the great depression. It was posted here earlier looks like I did not bookmark it.
And this.
http://africantears.netfirms.com/thisweek.shtml
The depression link was fascinating since I had long been under the impression that the collapse was sudden and caught most be surprise instead I found that it was quite similar to the current economic climate. The underlying cause was simple to many risky investments and economic hicups.
We face the same problems today short term. On a longer term not ( 3 years is long term these days ) We will face no way to recover as Peak Oil will effectively prevent any sort of economic recovery.
The problem is a economic collapse now will gut investment in oil production so we won't see the needed investment for several years. Meanwhile the resulting decline in demand which might be as high as 5% is really not enough to delay peak oil all that much but will lower prices substantially.
Note 5% from today is a lot since it would include 2-5% lost growth with a total demand drop of 7-10% in any case it will ensure low oil prices for a few years.
Its a bit interesting that the coming economic slow down will allow low oil prices as we pass the peak.
This double combo practically ensures we have peaked.
Since this is an open thread I will respond to your reading list. Aside from the meatier non-fiction stuff I have read some other things from your fiction author list that I might suggest.
CJ Cheryl; The Foreigner series has a lot of thoughtful discourse on clash of cultures and modes of thought
Neal Stephenson; His Baroque cycle is quite an accomplishment of historical fanciful fiction chronicling the rise of commerce in the late 17th century. Some may consider it long winded, but others love it.
Connie Willis; Her Three men and a boat, to say nothing of the dog, is delightful and a much easier read after plowing through the others.
By the way I am looking forward to your discourse with Westexas. its always helpful to have ones arguements critically analyzed.
Tony
Not sure it fits with the peak oil mentality though.
Neal Stephenson was a visionary. I read Snow Crash, and thought "Wow, he was thinking this stuff up in 1992?"
I just finished Forge of Heaven. I was a bit disappointed by that and Hammerfall, although moreso by Hammerfall. I thought it was pretty boring. Cyteen was very impressive, though.
The worst book I have read this year? The one I just finished: "Traipsing into Evolution." It's the Creationists' take on the Dover trial. I only read that kind of stuff to better "know my enemy."
The Tao Te Ching. By Lao Tsu. Two translations I like -
one is by Gia-Fu Feng and Jane English. The other is called "The Way of Life, According to Lao Tsu", translated by Witter Bynner. This one's known as "An American Translation." Some lines (imperfect recall): "He who feels burst, must once have been a bubble." "Under heaven and earth, there is nothing like using restraint."
"The Promise of Mediation: A Transformative Approach to Conflict", by Robert A. Baruch Bush and Joseph P. Folger.
I haven't read Bush and Folger - (I know). The thing is, I had a "pre-mediation interview" with someone who'd been through their training and it was an amazing experience. Hence, this on my list. And I mention it for the practical aspect of addressing "peak".
Copied from the Amazon site - Witter Bynner translation, end of Stanza One:
... And whether a man dispassionately
sees to the core of life
Or passionately,
Sees the surface
The core and the surface
Are essentially the same,
Words making them seem different
Only to express appearance.
If names be needed, Wonder names them both:
From wonder into wonder
Existence opens.
One book I can't recommend highly enough - I don't care what your interests are - is The Time Traveler's Wife. There is something in there for everyone. I haven't had anyone tell me that they didn't like it. I thought it was remarkable.
also. I've recommended The Alphabet Verses The Goddess by Leonard shlain here before. if you don't want to buy it I'll loan you mine
oh! another post peak recommendation; good reading glasses. At 39 yoa I can feel my vision going
I am 39 myself, and my vision has been changing lately. I wear contacts, but they have started to blur a bit.
If you're not already familiar with his writing, Robert Pirsig's 'Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance' has a lot worth saying about the relationship between technology and wider culture, and the sequel 'Lila', which describes an "evolutionary metaphysics" gives a very good explanation of why, for example, the laws of thermodynamics will trump the laws of economics. I'd imagine engineers would like it the most. Got very interesting stuff about the origins of US culture.
Also: describing well the cultural attitudes that stand in our way, and their origin (aka "technology will save us") you might like to read Mary Midgley's 'Science as Salvation: A Modern Myth and its Meaning'. She's an excellent philosopher, and very readable.
And while 'Zen...' was a stripped down book, even considering its length, with many journeys reflecting on each other, 'Lila' reflects too much of Pirsig's own limitations.
Unfortunately, even though many people seem to have read it, 'Zen...' had no more lasting impact in terms of changing American society than anything else from that time.
I don't think anything but reality will end the American Dream at this point, and reality faced alone is possibly the worst teacher of all - another moral from 'Zen...', I find, at least for Phaedrus.
Survived at least 4 serious assassination attempts, and endless smaller ones.
I cut him some slack. There is no way to reconcile the opposing forces in Pakistan (development, islamicisation etc.). He isn't really in control of a lot of what goes on in the country (the Northwest frontier, the nuclear weapons programme etc.).
He is sitting on a powder keg, with a lit fuse, hoping it won't go off.
Into The Cool by Schneider and Sagan (All Life is driven by Energy Gradients)
Big Coal by Jeff Goodell
The Weather Makers by Tim Flannnery
The Hype About Hydrogen by Joseph Romm
The Little Ice Age by Brian Fagan
The Curve of Binding Energy by John McPhee
The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter
When Corporations Rule the World by David Korten
I've gotten a bit hooked on the idea that Rome's Third Century Crisismay have had a form of peak wood underlying the empire's problems. Tainter discusses this possibility in a round-about way, John Perlin's "A Forest Journey" comes right out and pins the blame on peak wood around Rome's Spanish silver mines, and J.V. Thirgood's "Man and the Mediterranean Forest" makes some important points about shipbuilding in particular and deforestation in general in the Mediterranean. If the Third Century Crisis was indeed resource related, then the way things played out may be instructive for us. It's not a pretty picture.
"Freakonomics", "Butterfly Economics", and "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets" were worth reading; "The End of Oil" and "A Thousand Barrels a Second" were good reads, but TOD's better; "The Prize" was a waste of time, except that it helps understand Yergin's point of view. If you have kids, I strongly recommend Jim Dale's Listening Library rendition of "Around the World in 80 Days." It's great fun, and a eye-opening view of world transportation just before the age of petroleum.
http://www.anansi.ca/titles.cfm?pub_subid=237
some very good thoughts on the issue of ecological collapse and the ancient Greeks and Romans. We know a lot, because the chroniclers of the time worried about it.
If you read, that should be on your list ;)
Very good read - and presented in a way that allows you to either just skim the surface of the science go deep into the details of it with his prolific use of footnotes.
The man who gives everything for his son.
Who never quits trying.
Would that such people inhabited this earth to this day.
Instead we have the man(and woman as well) who cruise thru numerous marriages/divorces/affairs all because they refuse to be responsible for what they produced and live only for themselves. (Note to detractors/trollers: I only observe and do not say its the absolute truth, whatever that is.) Its my view of our culture. 68 years of observation I might add, from 'wood' to 'fusion' and beyond or Back to the Trees Part III,whatever.
I recommend it if you haven't read it as yet(The Road).
I see your a Clancy fan. I was too but think he finally lost his edge.
airdale
Who never quits trying.
Would that such people inhabited this earth to this day.
Sounds like one I would like. I have bookmarked this thread for future reference.
I see your a Clancy fan. I was too but think he finally lost his edge.
All my life, people told me I would like Clancy. I always put off reading him. When I finally read my first Clancy book, I thought "This is great stuff." But after reading about 4 of them, I thought "This is getting pretty predictable." I had the same experience with Anne Rice. I loved the first few of hers I read, and then the rest seemed to be going through the motions.
I read recently, on the blog for High Country News (an excellent mag about environmental, sociological and other issues of the 11 Western states), an interview with a Univ of Colorado prof, head of their department of environmental journalism, where he quoted a UC climatologist that ...
global warming could hit 15 DEGREES F by the end of this century. Not 6, not 9, but 15 degrees.
This climatologist was seriously recommending spraying aerosols into the atmosphere as part of slowing the rate of global warming.
Now, that's just as "apocaolyptic" as Kunstler on Peak Oil.
More than 5 degrees centigrade rises in avg temperature are associated with truly dramatic changes in the world climate.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/9A2/80/Ch_1__Science.pdf
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/9A2/97/Chapter_3__Global_Impacts.pdf
And under 'Business as Usual' (BAU) scenarios from the IPCC and other bodies, we are almost certain to hit 5 degree centigrade, sometime in the next 100-150 years (and it could be within 50 years -- there are some positive feedback loops that, if we trip over certain thresholds, we cannot stop).
Stern basically says (above) that 5 degrees centigrade and above is too difficult to forecast and too awful to contemplate, so he proceeds to ignore those worst case scenarios.
To scale it, 5 degrees centigrade is as far now as we are above the average temperature at the peak of the last ice age, 18,000 years ago.
The net impact on the USA is likely to be that the coasts will get wetter (where it rains, it will rain more). Conversely where it is dry, it will get dryer. Most of the major agricultural regions of the USA will simply dry out: a similar drying killed off the Anansi civilisation in about 1200.
I couldn't find any open comment at the URL provided.
I did find a PDF of an opinion policy article.
I also created an account. This presented me with the following information request --->
Observations:
1) I agree with you that a key benefit of TOD is the cross disciplinary nature of the debate and the interchange with others of vastly different viewpoint. I would argue that one of the main failings of mainstream media is an entirely homogenized viewpoint. TOD is a strong counterpoint to this.
2)While I disagree with those on TOD who propose to devour their neighbors, I find it valuable to be reminded that there are people who hold such views. I also find it valuable to obtain the perspective of those from outside North America. It might be worthwhile to have a means to identify the nation of origin of each contribution.
- The EV site only deals in PDF or WORD documents. These are very cumbersome. The HTML presentation of TOD is much better then PDF format.
- The dialog on the EV site is presented as a series of abstracts and associated downloads. You can see the abstract for each contribution but I dislike the idea of having to download 200 PDFs on each visit. If you move to this format you would not have 200 contributions; you would also hurt your readership.
- It is not clear how one would follow the thread of a debate under the EV format. I'm not sure I understand how to follow the threads under the current TOD format </joke> but prefer it to the alternative you have presented.
Requests:R1) The proposed debate between WT and R2 is a fantastic idea. I am less concerned with the "winner" and am much more concerned that we hone our ability to debate and publicly present issues which are critical to both our present and to our future.
R2) I believe TOD would benefit from having a wiki strucutre in addition to the open debate and comment format. The edited final version of the WT/R2 interaction would be a suitable wiki page.
R3) A reader from Finland (sorry I missed your name) had a list of 30 common objections to PO. Others have brought up the idea of TOD group review and response to each of these. The outcome of such a process would also form a natural set of wiki elements.
R4) R2's ethanol analysis would also be a suitable wiki page. By creating these elements as wiki pages on TOD you establish TOD as a key reference point for peer reviewed source material. This would draw other viewers but more importantly it would offer a valid counterpoint to such groups as CERA and others.
Cheers!
I thought you were seeking comment on the mode of presentation in contrast to TOD rather than comment on the subject matter itself. My bad.
Moscow trying to flex its energy muscles:
West Must Listen to Russia When Discussing Energy Strategy -- FM
http://www.mosnews.com/money/2006/11/29/lavrovenergy.shtml
First they picked on foreign oil companies, now it's the foreign gold diggers:
Russian Authorities Set Sights on Foreign Gold Producers, Plan to Recall Licenses
http://www.mosnews.com/money/2006/11/29/goldlicense.shtml
Problems at the top of the world.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
The Cryosphere is not looking good this winter. The decay in ice coverage over the winter is ominous and does not bode well for the future. I think we are seeing a system in transition.
Any plans to use crops for ethanol production should be reconsidered considering we may be facing major climate extremes as global warming progresses. As little as two years of abnormal weather can result in a major decrease in crop yields. I think global warming is real enough now to consider investing in organic fuel risky at best.
I think its becoming even more critical to consider bypassing any sort of road based transport solution and move directly to electric rail.
I
strongly agreewith the sentiments expressed in your post.Your quote: "I think its becoming even more critical to consider bypassing any sort of road based transport solution and move directly to electric rail."
Yep, Alan Drake [AlanfromBigEasy] needs to become a MSM star and address a joint session of Congress directly with his ideas so they get the point how quickly and easily this can be done. As Kunstler said: "..even the Bolivians would be ashamed of our railroad system."
Future foodstuff shortages is a big worry of mine too.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Yeah, after reading that DOD report in another thread here on TOD today, I'm seeing how TSHTF now. Iraq is already lost. Afghanistan is lost. Wow, there will be a lot of angry 'merikans when they learn we can't whip those towel-heads, eh? Backlash. We need to bring our Guard and Army home NOW to start laying rail, setting up community gardens and so forth NOW. Before the Guard and Army are destroyed as organizations. But we can't, because that would show the world we're losers. [Oh hell, the rest of the world has us pegged anyway.]
Cassandra pointed out how things won't be as expected. Yeah, the Navy with nuclear powered ships still cannot protect an aircraft carrier (which can't launch planes without fuel - at $50/gallon NOW says the report) and it still cannot protect an oil tanker from an anti-ship rocket. That strikes me intuitively as good because it forces a smaller and more robust scale.
Order the Guard home. Put it to work building rail. All the deferred road projects - fuggetabout them. Repave one third, lay rail on one third, a bike track on the third third. Now, where to get the rail... ooops.
Food. Every state [for those of us in US] needs to assess how to achieve some degree of food security. Vermont figured it could feed itself in a year. A lot of beans and squash I bet.
wiki wiki we need a wiki
cfm in Gray, ME
-----------------------
Here's a crazy technofix - which I seem to do too often here: Please the 'aircraft carrier mafia' movement among the admirals by adding more of the best efficiency elements on the carriers - nuclear reactors.
Use the nukes to run a floating chemistry lab. Oxygen in the air and water, Hydrogen in the water, Nitrogen in the air, dissolved Chlorine and Carbon Dioxide in the water, Limestone and other carbonates dredged from continental shelves...
Everything one needs to run a jet and rocket fuel production facility.
Aren't the Russians thinking the same thing? I remember reading somewhere of a proposed floating nuke plant to help power the Shtokman gasfield in the Arctic Sea?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
So, next question: strategy?
Europe and the People Without History by Eric Wolf.
OK, I tried. Tomorrow I'll try to read the other article. All this does is prove Tainter's point about diminishing returns of education, that we are just wasting our time and money educating some people. "First up against the wall when the revolution came, the marketing department of the Sirius Cybernetics Dept." To which wall I will add any economist that suggests we create a market for murder. There is no price at which it is acceptable to do harm for another's profit. The tables of the money changers and all that.
I went to MIT and had to put up with Samuelson at exactly the time Galbraith was teaching down the river. I didn't find out about Galbraith until years later. Talk about miseducation. Purposeful miseducation.
For Robert's book list, I'd suggest "Selling the Free Market", James Arnt Aune, 330.12209 or so in your library. Also James Dean's "Conservatives without Conscience". Maybe Hacker's "Great Risk Shift" and Johnson's "Perfectly Legal". There is a major clusterfuck around free-market fundamentalism, liberalism, libertarian economics, authoritarianism, racism and fear. We're so locked down we cannot even save ourselves.
wiki wiki we need a wiki
cfm in Gray,ME
We'll see if action follows, but the words themselves are a wonder.
People take credit for thinking of something someone else already thought of all the time.
"...Abdullah may decide to strangle Iranian funding of the militias through oil policy. If Saudi Arabia boosted production and cut the price of oil in half, the kingdom could still finance its current spending. But it would be devastating to Iran, which is facing economic difficulties even with today's high prices. The result would be to limit Tehran's ability to continue funneling hundreds of millions each year to Shiite militias in Iraq and elsewhere."
Someone wake him up.
Bart
Bladerunner is actually not your 'Mad Max' scenario, quite the opposite.
The whole point about Bladerunner is that the Los Angeles of the future looks like Tokyo now (and Shanghai 25 years after the movie was made even more so). Technology, space travel, all the rest.
You want civilisation collapsing, other examples are:
- Omega Man (see the Richard Mathison novel 'I am Legend' which is far better) w. Charlton Heston
- Damnation Alley (the novelist Roger Zelazny, disavowed the film) - film and book of same name
- Mad Max (I, II and III) - of course
- Day of the Triffids - John Wyndham
on books::-)
There are three so far in the series, "Dies the Fire", "the Protector's War", and "Meeting in Corvallis" (It's all set in the Willamette Valley, for you Oregonians)