Suicide attack on Saudi refinery thwarted
Posted by Super G on February 24, 2006 - 12:09pm
Saudi security forces have foiled an apparent suicide car bomb attack on a major oil production facility in the eastern town of Abqaiq.Update [2006-2-25 9:38:6 by Admin]: James Kunstler emails to clarify a point brought up in the comments:
In my book, "The Long Emergency," I said it would only take a camel and a few pounds of Semtex to bring down a pipeline, not an oil refinery. I don't think that's too fine a distinction.Update [2006-2-24 15:2:0 by Admin]: We've been having some technical difficulties this afternoon. Hopefully the site is now up for good.
At least two cars carrying explosives were fired on at the plant, Saudi officials have said. BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says the attack is the first direct assault on Saudi oil production.More about Abqaiq from Reuters:The al-Qaeda network on the Arabian Peninsula has long called for attacks on Saudi oil installations.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said output at the facility, which handles about two-thirds of the country's oil production, was unaffected by the attack.
Oil security analysts have estimated that a serious attack on the facility could halve Saudi exports for up to a year.
On news of the attack, the price of crude oil for April delivery leapt as much as 3.4% to $62.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its biggest gain since 17 January.
Former Middle East CIA field officer Robert Baer has described Abqaiq as "the most vulnerable point and most spectacular target in the Saudi oil system."Other news story links: here, and here.Abqaiq handles crude pumped from the giant Ghawar field and ships it off to terminals Ras Tanura -- the world's biggest offshore oil loading facility -- and Juaymah.
"It's not clear what damage there is but Abqaiq is the world's most important oil facility," said Gary Ross, CEO at PIRA Energy consultancy in New York.
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
Successful attempt = ?
(Note that I deliberately refrained from using the terms 'supply' and 'demand'. That was to preempt a comment from some literal-minded economist that, by definition, supply always equals demand, as determined by price. While technically this is true, it gives me little comfort to know that if supplies are cut to say a third of what they are now, a gasoline price of $20/gal will bring the demand right in line with the supply.)
Notice that, of late, energy supply problems have had very little to do with geology and a lot to do with a level of human conflict that appears to be getting more virulent.
This helps not to take yourself and the economic theories much too seriously. Yes, there is a whole lot of truth in them, but the slippery part of the economic theories is that in some circumstances they are 100% valid, in some are 50% valid and in others may even produce disasters if applied.
That's why a feel a little bit uncomfortable with the term "economist" (I have also graduated economics). Besides the fact that there is no such profession it somehow detaches the set of problems they solve from reality (ok, may be it is my perception only). It puts it in line with other pretty much detached terms like "The Economy", "The Market", "The Invisible Hand" etc. etc.
I'm convinced that many of the Evil Economists we see making absurd "don't worry, be happy" claims about the magic of the market are the ones who've never held a job where economics was a contact sport and not a pleasant, easily graphed and analyzed abstraction.
So the question that needs to be asked is: Which gives first. The supply is on a geologic curve driven by an unsustainable world economy.
Leaving AGW aside.
I'm reading "Fooled by Randomness" now and have to admit that I am enjoying the comments dropped about economists.
I know economists are not all mad, but really after spending a near century believing the unbelievable ... something had to give. Imagine living in this world and believing in rational actors (or even that markets average out as if we were)!
Ah well, given the new move to experiments and brain scans I expect the field to build some respect.
"There are two types of people that believe in infinite growth against a finite resource base--madmen and economists."
(I guess that we could modify it to say 99% of economists.)
But I do wonder if it presages something bigger and more sophisticated elsewhere. A diversion perhaps? We've always known the intention was there. On the other hand, maybe Al-Qaeda is simply not capable of pulling off anything more threatening than this.
With the pending civil war in Iraq, tensions with Iran and the election of Hamas, things seem to be heating up in the Middle East. I'm surprised oil prices aren't in the $70s.
A key metric for their success is press coverage, not just barrels removed from the market. To that extent, I think they had a good day. Cost: 3 vehicles, a squad of privates, and some kilos of semtex. Benefit: validation that they have the right strategic target in mind, better operational knowledge, and some serious street cred.
The Iraqi IED's come to mind. The first generation bombs were crude and relatively easy to detect and mitigate. But they learned. Now the devices are more sophisticated technically. And more problematically, IED's have become a decentralized cottage industry, very difficult to root out. And cheapo-deapo when compared to the cost of defense.
They're studying today's tape. They'll learn more. And eventually they'll have a really good day; either through luck or skill.
WTI may have only gone up a few bucks, but Rentech shot up like it had escape velocity. Selfishly, I do want to be on the profitable side of the PO curve. Cripes, where did my altruism go? I know I had it this morning!
Ed
How I'd do it - find a plant worker, how many ,000 work there?, and suborn him (if he isn't already ideologically so inclined) into taking to work a slightly-heavier-than-usual lunch pail for a while (250g of semtex x however many days adds up to a tidy pile, and as a local he'd probably have an idea of the best place to put it for maximum effect. At an appropriate time, eg when the first bomb of the war against iran lands, set it off.
And now that CBS is reporting that al Qaeda is claiming this attack was part of a series of operations, it seems that they've finally figured out the obvious way to hurt the West. Even if they don't manage to do any real damage to the energy infrastructure, a steady drumbeat of failed attacks will still add a more or less permanent terrorism premium to the price of oil.
I was reading somone .. John Robb? (link below), about a month ago talking about how a worldwide targeting of oil supplies would be harmful to the west. And then it happens.
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/
Jeez if any of you guys have good ideas, keep them to yourselves.
The importance of oil and all associated production and distribution infrastructure is a given.
Read "Blood and Oil" or similiar books to give an idea of how much this has been talked about just in relation to the US military, let alone private security considerations.
The "badguys" or "evil doers" know all about things like wiretapping and key infrastructure vulnerabilities. They know a fair amount about other things like markets and about conducting their eery public relations campaign as well.
The notion that free discourse on sites such as this aids, abetts, or gives comfort to "the enemy" has either got to be sarcasm or a mistake of some sort, I think.
I really am thinking about this verus "native insurgent" campaigns from 100 or 150 years ago. It really was different when the tribal fighters could not read the Times of London each week to see authors discuss "what would hurt us most."
Maybe a strategist would say that insurgents now have better intelligence of the opposition's political and economic conditions.
That's not something we are going to change (we aren't going to stop talking, or blocade Iraqi internet connections) ... but it does create a change. We have info-saavy insurgents.
Israel faces unprecedented terror and sabotage attacks from every side and from within its territory from sleeper cells of Arab Israelis. Iran activates trained sleeper terror cells in the Ras Tanura center of Saudi oil refining and shipping. The Eastern province of Saudi Arabia around Ras Tanura contains a disenfranchised Shi'ite minority, which has historically been denied the fruits of the immense Saudi oil wealth. There are some 2 million Shi'ite Muslims in Saudi Arabia. Shi'ites do most of the manual work in the Saudi oilfields, making up 40% of Aramco's workforce.
Iran declares an immediate embargo of deliveries of its 4 million barrels of oil a day. It threatens to sink a large oil super-tanker in the narrows of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off 40% of all world oil flows, if the world does not join it against the US-Israeli action.
The strait has two 1-mile-wide channels for marine traffic, separated by a 2-mile-wide buffer zone, and is the only sea passage to the open ocean for much of OPEC oil. It is Saudi Arabia's main export route.
Then it gets worse
Think back after 9/11 when the GWB administration at first stated, in an explanation given by then EPA administrator Christine Whitman, that toxic fumes and asbestos dust emanating from the collapsed WTC towers were safe and not harmful [although see later recanted that position]. If our own government in the US won't tell us the obvious truth after a terrorist attack, what incentive do the more secretive Saudis have to tell the truth?
While perhaps not planned by the higher-ups, the numerous go signals - represented by the appearance of Bin Laden tapes - may mean we will see other small or larger terror attacks soon.
That's right. It doesn't make sense to me to automatically say 'Al-Qaeda' when something like this happens. I'm basically a proponent of the theory that there are many unrelated or loosely affiliated Islamic terrorist cells and that they often act on their own. In fact, it may be the case that the US in effect 'created' Al-Qaeda by its need for an identifiable single-headed enemy, just like monolithic Communism. In any case, it seems that current US policy is exacerbating the problem massively.
the united states did.
http://www.archive.org/details/ThePowerOfNightmares
see the third installment if you want to skip the first two witch deals with the origins of both the neo-cons and radical Islam.
Let the good times roll.
Though it gives the boot to Kunstler's theory that a pound of Semtex and a camel could put an oil refinery down, the raving mad terror is now staring us right in the face. This will not be the last attack. The question is less a matter of when they get the tactics right, than if. My guess is they may smarten up and use missiles, antitank rockets, or a suicide plane next time. Should the Abqaig facility go down, well, I don't need to tell you masters of the obvious, we may be in for a less than smooth ride.
The Chaotic Era is now in full swing. Now come the fascists, like Bush and his malevolent crowd, ready to quell the inevitable uprisings in order to protect the rich and well placed. The average man and woman will not know what hit them. They will turn on enemies real and imagined, and they will demand the good times continue or someone's head will roll. Anyone with any sense of physics, anyone who has kept up with climate news, anyone who remembers classical economics should be preparing for the rough times ahead. The window of opportunity for preparation has squeaked, and it is now dislodged and closing slowly, inexorably. Will we use this opportunity?
My guess. No.
My guess is the American public will see this window closing, and they will pull down the shade. Brainwashed by decades of Republican blather about no government being good government, they will go to the family's Free Market Altar, the television, and they will worship their consumer god and pray that next year's parade of cool consumer goods will be even better.
Acta est fabula, plaudite!
First these "terrorists" are unlikely to be able to do anything of significance that can cause a change. What they have is a poorly funded ideology vs a multi-billion energy industry and an even better funded military machine that guards it.
Second if events of the sort you imagine do happen, you will not want to be amidst them. "May you live in interesting times" is a curse, not a birthday wish.
Doing the same in SA is a whole other business. The royal family has a good grip on the power. Also the population is not likely to support some outsiders disrupting the industry the whole country depends on unless there is a really good cause for that.
Another old saying: "Generally, we live just long enough to regret it".
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Like a false sense of security I know..
A few Box-cutters and some 'Incompletes' from a Florida Flying Class (and one helluvan audacious notion) took out the WTC, unless you buy in to the 'Planted Detonators' Consp. Theory. You ever noticed how many oil and gas trucks run around our cities and highways? There are targets everywhere..
Or as the Sith Lord remarked, "Don't be too proud of this Technical Marvel of yours, only the FORCE.."
What's a little funding when you've got passionate warriors, ready to give it their all at the word go? That Well-funded super-military (which might be as misleading a front as the 'poorly funded band of rebels in their little caves'), it's doing double-duty by helping to keep the enemy thoroughly dedicated and invigorated.
However, based on past histories of fiancial manipulations by speculators, similar things have been done at least dozens of times in the past--and perhaps hundreds of times.
My point was that you can not extrapolate the Iraqi situation to Saudi Arabia. Nobody occupied this country, at least not in such a brutal manner as Iraq. Saudi royal family uses 9% of oil revenue, and the whole country wellfare depends on the 91% left. If say oil revenues are halved the princes will not suffer because they have enough accumulated wealth, it is the people that will suffer.
Not very perspective way to fight a revolution, right? I can see the attacks to oil installations in SA as a move against USA, but I don't think these will receive such a local support as in Iraq.
The thing that worries me is Bush being stupid enough to invade Iran, and Iran then being myopic enough to launch some of their many missiles at Saudi oil facilities. That's a very low probability event, I'm guessing, but it would cause a spasm throughout the oil market and the world economy like nothing anyone here has seen before.
Of course, the CDC/CIA/WHO would have pre-constructed the required vaccines-- that is where the blackmail comes in. This new form of asymetric warfare, where using the magic bullet of Nature's bugs, would be unstoppable for those countries attacked. Capitulation for help would be almost instantaneous. This paradigm shift to instantly restructure geo-strategic inflection points would be a logical way for the elites to retain higher degrees of control.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Personally I don't believe in the Iranian Mad Max scenario... IMO they are not suiciders up there and can well do the risk assessment math. I even think that the current Iraq "fiasco" was expected (well, probably to a lower extent), but they simply decided that the human life and material cost was worthed.
Nevertheless I'll not rule out Israel bombing Iran with a formal disagreement from US.
To really put a refinery out for a long time, you need to take out some of large specially built pressure vessels likes the crackers and/or the refinery's power plant. But you are not likely to do this with a car bomb. A large suicide plane packed with explosives might do the job, but easier said than done.
I'm sure these people already know where all the weak points are in their target refinery, so where there's a will, there's usually is a way. I'm sure the concept of using a radiological 'dirty bomb' to make the refinery unlivable hasn't escaped them, either (all they needed to do was read Tom Clancey).
SA facilities have 3 security fences and patrol roads and a lot of empty space to cross before you get anywhere near them.
here's Abqaiq on Encarta,
http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/features/mapcenter/map.aspx?TextLatitude=39.45&TextLongitude=-98.907&TextAltitude=0&TextSelectedEntity=39070&SearchEnc=false&MapStyle=Comprehensive&MapSize=Medium&MapStyleSelectedIndex=0&searchTextMap=Abqiq%2C+Saudi+Arabia&MapStylesList=Comprehensive&ZoomOnMapClickCheck=on#map_frame
here's the refinery from a satellite photo,
http://www.terraserver.com/imagery/image_gx.asp?cpx=49.6840108259304&cpy=25.929967188038397&res=15&provider_id=350&t=pan&dat=
Lotta' pipelines going in and out of there.
But Al Qaeda is a gnat - their attacks are opportunistic. Its the reaction to the attacks is where the damage is done. All you need to do is to create a state of limited war in a prime location and... well, higher oil prices.
On May 1 2004, attackers stormed the offices of Houston-based oil company in the western Saudi oil hub of Yanbu, killing six Westerners and a Saudi before Saudi security forces killed the attackers. Several weeks later, al-Qaida-linked gunmen stormed oil company compounds in Khobar, on the eastern coast, and took hostages. Twenty-two people, 19 of them foreigners, were killed by the time the siege ended.
In December 2004, al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden for the first time called on militants to attack oil targets in the Gulf to stop the flow of oil to the West.
But no major attacks followed in the region. Some experts have believed that because al-Qaida's long-term goal is to run Saudi Arabia, it would do nothing to seriously jeopardize the oil industry on which the kingdom's wealth is based.
Any chance you can do a post mortem on the server hits today? I'd love to see the site traffic plotted against today's timeframe. What was site traffic pre-SA attack? How long did it take to ramp up? How did the traffic stack up against historical trends?
Timed Out in Florida
If it had been a snake, it would've bit me.
There will be more, you can bet on that.
What you should not bet on is them stopping every single one.
It's very hard to stop someone who is bent on not surviving an attack.
It turned out that their wantoness and excessive behaviour was just a facade to cover up their true selves and what they really believed in and held dear. They were only pretending to be wastrels. I was slightly disappointed at the time, though I was intrigued. They didn't want to draw attention to themselves so they just acted like all the other princes who had more money than sense, so as not to arouse the suspecion of the Suadi authorities or British intelligence that was also keeping an eye on them, so they said.
It reminded me of the Scarlet Pimpernell, Zorro, in a way and it sounded rather exciting, a bit dangerous and fascinating. There are so many stories about princes or heroes who have to pretend to be something they are not, while they wait for the right moment to strike back at injustice. And believe me these guys couldn't wait to strike a blow for freedom. Freedom that we'd all understand. They seemed to want to build a welfare state pretty much on Swedish lines and sweep away the Saudi Royal family and all it's corruption, waste and mismanagement of Saudi's resources.
One firebrand vowed to grab his uncle by the throat one day and kick him out of his palace, along with his wizard, his soothsayer and his magican. His uncle, he said, was wasting a fortune on these charlatans and their crazed ideas about how one could see into the future. Superstition amongst the Suadi Royal Family is legendary. It's almost like Zarist Russia before the Revolution, you remember Rasputin and the like. His uncle was obsessed with esoteric ancient texts and the study of the Kabala and numbers, like so many on TOD!
Anyway after talking to them I was pretty much on their side and I've been waiting a long time for the Saudi regime to go down. It's bound to happen sooner or later. The instability in Iraq cannot be contained inside Iraq. It will spread out into neighbouring countries. The Shia in Iraq have been more or less opressed for more then eight centuries by the Sunnis, the traditional ruling class of Iraq and many other countries in the region. The serious point here worht noting is that Iran is Shia. There is a large Shia minority in Northern Saudi, yes just across the border where the oil is! There also a large group of Shia heading West though Syria and way over to Lebanon. This is social/religious group has traditionally been under the thumb so to speak. Now they can see a bright potential future for themselves. A great and powerful Shia nation stretching from the Mediterranean to the Gulf. This is a dream for them, but isn't it a nightmare for us? Think about it, we've created a vacuum in the Middle East that might be filled by a newly resurgent Shia superstate. Potentially a really important and strong world power. It's a chance they'ed be stuped not to take. It's now or never for them. Like the head of Israeli intelligence said a few weeks ago, we may end up regreting that Saddam isn't around anymore!
The resulting vacuum in Iraq and the potential of a Shia superstate have been discussed very intensivly before the Iraq. Maybe not in the US but for sure in Europe and Canada.
> They seemed to want to build a welfare state pretty much on Swedish lines and sweep away the Saudi Royal family and all it's corruption, waste and mismanagement of Saudi's resources.
It only worked as long as Sweden had a vibrant private sector that were large enough to fiance the state sector. It might have worked longer if our socialists had not created manny service sectors as part of the state and thus making them inefficient.
It also worked farly well for a long time since manny people did not ask for all the free benefits they were entitled too since they felt that they could get by withouth them. That changed with time and the change were hurried along by our socialists propaganda about allowances being rights and democracy being having politicians giving everybody things for free and fixing everybodys problem.
Norway has managed to turn oil income into general wealth for their population but they also had a good private enterprice tradition. I do not know Saudi Arabia but my impresssion is that they do not have much of an entrepreneur tradition at all.
Of course the some 8000 royals have been riding various cars on of nice gravy train. There have been and still are many subsidies to them and to private companies and businesses and there are some good early retirement programs, for those that can find work with the state or a good private company. Medical care is free to most if not all, but levels of service very.
Real economic power is concentrated in relatively few hands, but the royals know that the imense wealth must be shared with the descendents of all the original powerful tribes that ruled the various regions of the peninsula before they were united under Abdul Aziz. This is done through means typical of all countries collecting the bulk of their revenues through state enterprises. The families of the original tribes retain much of their economic power through the agent & partnership relations that are required for foreign investment. Each foreign entity wishing to establish business in S.A. must have a Saudi partner and the amount of business a company can expect to do corresponds to the degree of "influence" a partner has with the Sauds. That part is a lot like the system in the States, except Cheney and GW do not officially appear on the Halliburton, Bechtel and Lockheed-Martin food chains.
So the various food and gravy trains that were set up with the imense oil wealth have not created an overly entrepreneural sprit, as many find its quite easy to just sit back, occupy a chair and let the good times roll. The latest problems are developing from the increasing population and the rapid change in lifestyle and cultural pressures from expat workers of all nations. My company included 47 different nationalities in an overall work force of 20,000. Saudi women have an average of something like 7-8 children each, so it has meant superexponential growth during the last decades. Something like 50% of the population is under 17 years old and unemployment for the younger generation must be 20-25%. The GDP/capita has declined significantly with the population growth being roughly half (I think) of what it was 20 years ago. It has also put enormous pressure on virtually the entire infrastructure requiring tremendous expenditures for transportation, housing, medical, electric capacity, domestic fuel refining and not the least of which has been for water supply and treatment facilities. Water is extremely critical and agriculture can really only be conventionally practiced in 2 regions of the country. Outside Riyadh, there is a milk farm where must be 25,000 cows under airconditioned barns. Don't get much milk from a cow at 120ºF.
IMO, there is nobody more aware in the whole world of PO than the SA royal families, but you can bet they've got escape plans of some sort (or should I say golden parachutes).
Wasta ... Wealthy Middle Eastern nations acquired their riches not primarily by hard work, but by accident of nature. King Idriss reportedly said of the Libyan oil discoveries, "I wish it could have been water. Oil makes men idle, whereas water makes them work". When money comes easily, the competitive edge is dulled, and dependency follows as a way of life, for families and for countries. The cultural norm of individual dependency is paralleled by international dependency relationships.
IMO, Saudization, which has been, since the mid 90s, forced more and more on companies with high pct of expat workers as a way to decrease unemployment is not working the way it was hoped. I believe that the quality of work done by SAramco, among others does suffer. When the majority of technical employees were expats, the quality of work was very high. Specifications were maintained up to date with the latest technology and they made logical sense. I´ve noticed changes now. To give you the smallest example, I had to get a design for a UPS, uninterruptable power system, approved by S.A. It was rejected because the design of the UPS was not in accordance with some obscure SA specification. After digging up the specification, I found it was written in 1986, 10 years earlier. It required that all components on a circuit board must be able to be replaced by standard hand soddering techniques. By 1996 virtually all circuit boards were using microcomponents and entirely fabricated by machine. They are impossible to repair. The only choice is to toss them and install another completely new circuit board. The procedure to get the new system approved involved submitting a Request for Deviation to SAES, Saudi Aramco Engineering Services, and waiting for the deviation to be approved and returned before we could install the system. For want of an up to date specification, my work was delayed about 6 weeks. This is the shortest delay I remember of any of the deviations I submitted. Some actually delayed progress on various items for up to a year. The SA system, as it is today, is full of similar catch 22s. Much of the problems occur because someone is unwilling to make a decision without the prior approval of their boss, even though theoretically, he (no she) is the only person that is required to approve the particular procedure.
Another is that you can´t count on having a relationship based on support and trust between collegues or bosses and employees. I do a great deal of work based on my own initiative with the understanding that my boss trusts me to make the right decision before I actually get his approval when I do need it and when I get it, I know he will back me up. In SA, it doesn´t happen. Nobody sticks their neck out, because 1.) sometimes their boss may chose to make a cheap power play and veto the decision just to show who´s boss, and 2.) the employees don´t have a lot of confidence in their ability to make an independent decision, and if they make a mistake, they know their boss will kill them.
SA has started to rely on a lot of local mideast technical tallent instead of higher priced western technicals and IMO this also causes significant delays. To an employee of mideast or south asian origin, how long his project lasts directly affects if his family does well or goes hungry, so I think there are actually many delays that are purposely caused in the belief that, if something can be sent back to the engineering company for 30 days, they will get another 30 days salary. Might not really be true, but it certainly leaves that impression, since designs are returned for silly obvious things like a simple misspelling of some town´s name on a map, even though the town is well away from a pipeline and has no effect whatsoever on the route, or a date that´s off by one day, or really any multitude of stupid things. I used to think, man that´s not much of a reason to delay this, but if they think they can afford it, no problem for me, but all the while thinking that, if SA ever lets Exxon in here, they´re going to put themselves out of business inside 2 years.
So, IMHO, I´d have to agree with the wise King Idriss. On the other hand, it looks like with the latest oil revenues, they can continue with BAU (business as usual).
Turkey is not like this, but they have other problems. I´ll leave those for another day.
this is utterly unreadable. For some reason this is not true on the main page or the post screen.
There are no images or other obvious causes of this problem.
If
we
all
write
like
this,
we
can
foil
their
plot.
Also lately using Mozilla on Linux, some of the threads show up with a black background underlying the black text; the only part you can read is the orange links that are sprinkled here and there.
Also the problem with the super-long lines only occurs in this thread, not earlier threads.
this attempt failed but there is nothing you can do to prove that the next one will fail as well along with the one after that.
you can't make somthing completely secure, it's a balence between risk vs reward. only in this case the risk part doesn't matter to the person making the atempt.
It seems like almost every week or so that we'll get a message that patches are being installed IMMEDIATELY to protect the network against yet another weakness evidenced by hackers in the MS Windows OS (not to mention the various Norton Anti-Virus updates).
I have no idea what the cost is to Microsoft or their customers with all of this, but my question is this-- does anyone really believe that these network attacks are being carried out by well-funded, international terrorists? Or is this the result of the actions of many thousands of disgruntled/curious/whatever individuals or small groups-- of which a certain percentage happen to be smart or get lucky?
Stratfor has a recap of the Abqaiq attempt with an excellent analysis of the "firewalls" in place there and they even trotted out the difficulties in WWII in reducing the production at Ploesti in any significant measure, but-- what if the general discontent is so widespread that the "silver bullet" event that takes out a significant percentage of daily production is not the issue? What if it's "silver BBs"? Seems like enough amateur attempts that take out a few hundred bpd here and a few more there might be as effective.
Would be good if more detailed info emerges. Was it outstanding action in response to a serious attack, predictable killing of expendibles who were perhaps unwanted, a feint, just a little reminder? We will find out in the fullness of time.
I was a bit surprised that oil spiked up as much as it did given the lack of effect of this attempted attack (echoing jondough's first comment to this thread). A mite annoyed too, cos I missed my chance to bet on oil going up. I could almost bet on the price dropping in the very short term now, LOL. The oil market may be even more nervous than I thought it.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/alqaeda-claims-thwarted-bombing/2006/02/25/1140670289861.html
The US needs to remain hands off and leave it to the Saudi authorities. The last thing that is needed is to encourage support for Al Qaeda by overreacting.
The Saudi plant that was attacked is not a refinery as such - it does not produce refined products. I would describe it as a production and pretreatment plant, based on the information that I have seen. In any event, the output is crude oil and it can not be directly compared to the "refineries that were hit by Katrina and Rita".
According to the Washington Post, "The Abqaiq facility processes about 5-7 million barrels a day, removing hydrogen sulfide from crude oil to make it safe for shipping, before it is pumped to tankers for export."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/24/AR2006022400511.html
A hurricane affects the entire refinery site and almost everything in it, while the damage from a car bomb is highly localized. Remember, the force of an explosion attenuates with the cube of the distance from center of the explosion. So, if you have a large, robustly built target, such as a large pressure vessel in a refinery, it is necessary to place the explosive as close to the target as possible.
Unless you are using a modern 'smart bomb', aerial bomber against large steel or reinforced concrete structures is not as effective as it might appear, because even a near miss tends not to do that much damage. (Air, being a compressible gas is a very poor medium for 'coupling' the explosive to the target.) That's why WW II bombing required the dropping of thousands of bombs over a target so that a few lucky direct hits could be achieved.
No, if I owned a refinery on land that's close to being under water anyway, I'd much rather it take a hit from a single car bomb than a Category 4 hurricane.
The trucks were stopped a half mile from the actual facility, so whatever else they were planning came to nought.
Let's widen our lens and put this foiled terrorist attack in context with other events.
Here's part of the Saudi list. It's not difficult to see why this nation was struck.
Saudi Arabia - Chronology of Recent Government Events
FEBRUARY 2006
02/25/2006 Al-Qaeda threatens more attacks on Saudi oil facilities
02/24/2006 Saudi security forces prevent terrorist attack on Abqaiq oil refinery
02/23/2006 At least 103 Indians deported from Saudi Arabia to India
02/23/2006 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers meet with Secretary Rice (Abu Dhabi)
02/22/2006 Prince Saud Al-Faisal and Secretary Rice hold joint press conference
Prince Saud Al-Faisal and Secretary Rice press conference transcript:
http://www.saudiembassy.net/2006News/Statements/TransDetail.asp?cIndex=586
02/22/2006 King Abdullah meets with Secretary Rice
02/20/2006 Cabinet: King Abdullah's call for tolerance; Danish cartoons, Israel-Palestine
02/20/2006 Governor of Riyadh meets with Ambassador Fowler
02/19/2006 King Abdullah meets with former US ambassadors
02/18/2006 King Abdullah condemns extremism in remarks to National Guard guests
02/18/2006 OIC calls for emergency foreign ministers' meeting on Danish cartoons
02/18/2006 Prince Turki meets with Saudi students in Washington
02/17/2006 Saudi Ambassador meets with Saudi students in Boston
02/17/2006 Prince Turki discusses Saudi-US relations, global challenges at Harvard
02/16/2006 Prince Turki discusses Kingdom's role in the global community at MIT
02/15/2005 Saudi Arabia hosts the 57-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in Jeddah
02/15/2006 King Abdullah opens 21st Jenadriyah Festival
02/15/2006 King Abdullah meets with representatives of Bahrain and UAE - Sheikh Muhammad bin Isa Al-Khalifa, Bahrain's Commander of the National Guard, and Sheikh Saeed bin Zayed Al-Nahayan, head of the UAE ports authority
02/15/2006 Justice Minister meets with US delegation
02/14/2006 Foreign Minister meets with US delegations
02/14/2006 Prince Saud Al-Faisal meets with Dutch Foreign Minister Bot
02/14/2006 Prince Turki addresses the CFR on visit to New York
02/14/2006 King Abdullah meets with Lebanese prime minister
02/14/2006 Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab-African Affairs arrived in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to hold talks with Saudi Arabian King Abdallah bin Abd Al Aziz. Mohammad-Reza Baqeri is reportedly varying a message for the king from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
02/14/2006 Saudi Ambassador discusses range of issues with PBS' Charlie Rose
02/13/2006 Cabinet: Israel-Palestine, blasphemous cartoons
02/12/2006 Jeddah Economic Forum focuses on economic growth and cultural diversity
02/12/2006 Norwegian ambassador to Saudi Arabia apologizes for blasphemous cartoons
02/11/2006 King Abdullah meets with French envoys
02/10/2006 King Abdulaziz Center for National Dialogue launches Web site in English
02/09/2006 Saudi Ambassador meets with former President Bush (Houston meeting)
02/08/2006 Saudi Ambassador discusses Saudi-US partnership in Texas
(Houston World Affairs Council and at the Dallas World Affairs Council)
02/08/2006 Oil Minister addresses CERA conference
02/06/2006 West-Islamic World Dialogue Initiative (C-100) condemns offensive cartoons, calls for initiatives to overcome interfaith tension
02/05/2006 Prince Turki comments on Saudi-US energy relations, offensive Danish cartoons
02/02/2006 Saudi Arabia and Pakistan issue joint communiqué
02/01/2006 King Abdullah ends Asian tour with state visit to Pakistan
JANUARY 2006
01/31/2006 Cabinet: King Abdullah's Asia visit, Palestinian elections
01/31/2006 Foreign Minister cautions against prejudging Hamas
01/31/2006 Interior Minister calls for international conference on terrorism
01/30/2006 King Abdullah visits Malaysia
01/27/2006 King Abdullah concludes India visit by signing the Delhi Declaration
01/27/2006 King Abdullah arrives in Hong Kong
01/26/2006 King Abdullah receives a warm welcome in India
01/24/2006 King Abdullah begins Asian tour with visit to China
01/17/2006 Five suspects arrested for planning attacks on the Kingdom
01/17/2006 King Abdullah meets with Vice President Cheney
01/16/2006 Foreign Minister calls for international cooperation to fight terrorism (London address)
01/16/2006 Construction of new multi-level Jamarat Bridge begins
01/15/2006 Foreign Minister arrives in London for counterterrorism conference
01/14/2006 Resignation of Special Advisor to King Abdullah Ibrahim Alanqari
01/12/2006 Tragic stampede at Jamarat Bridge kills 345, injures 289
01/11/2006 King Abdullah calls for adherence to Islamic principles in Eid address
01/10/2006 King and Crown Prince call for Muslim unity in Eid address
01/10/2006 Religious leaders stress moderation in Eid Al-Adha sermons
01/09/2006 Grand Mufti denounces terrorism in sermon at Namira Mosque
01/08/2006 King Abdullah meets with Syrian president in Jeddah
01/03/2006 Cabinet: Hajj, terrorism, Arab League issues
DECEMBER 2005
12/28/2005 Two most-wanted terror suspects confirmed dead in shoot-out
12/27/2005 Five security men killed by terror suspects
12/03/2005 Saudi authorities arrest 17 suspected Al Qaeda terrorists
12/01/2005 Prince Turki calls for enhanced Saudi-US cooperation
SEPTEMBER 2005
09/2005 Report - Initiatives and Actions Taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to Combat Terrorism
Combating Terrorism Report
http://www.saudiembassy.net/ReportLink/WOT-September-2005.pdf
JUNE 2005
Saudi Arabia Most Wanted List
LIST OF 36 WANTED
First published June 28, 2005
Updated January 3, 2006
http://www.saudiembassy.net/documents/most-wanted-list-June2005.pdf
FEBRUARY 2005
02/05-08/2005 Saudi Arabia conducts the first global Counter-Terrorism International Conference, Riyadh
Counter-Terrorism International Conference, February 5-8, 2005 - including delegates from over 50 countries, including 15 from the Arab World
http://www.saudiembassy.net/Issues/WOTConference/Con1.asp and
http://www.ctic.org.sa/
-----
Primary source: Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia, Washington, D.C.
http://www.saudiembassy.net/2006News/News/All.asp
--
(This, by the way, is one of the reasons that a number of explosives experts question the claim that the Murrah Buidling in Oklahoma City was brought down by a van filled with a ANFO, a relatively poor explosive, and which was parked some distance away from the building. But that is a whole other subject, more suitable for some other forum.)
http://www.iraq-war.ru/article/80661
Now, unless you are conspiracy-phobic which a lot of people are these days, you have to consider the possibility that the US was behind this bombing. The objective, to cause a civil war in Iraq under the theory that if they're fighting among themselves they won't be able to fight the occupiers.
Obviously many Iraqis and Muslims in the region have figured this out. Ahmadinejad in Iran immediately accused the US and Israel of being behind the Mosque bombing.
My point is this: whether you buy into this theory or not the US presence is clearly inflaming the whole region and those people know where we are vulnerable. Expect attacks on oil facilities to intensify. Expect a serious oil crisis to develop in the near future and prepare yourself accordingly.
Plus most neocon "planning" has yielded one mess after another. WHy would this be any different?
In addition, there is no need to provoke Iran into a fight - since it appears that Iran is already ready and willing to take on the US, for whatever reason.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article12070.htm
Some of you seem to think the US wants stability in Iraq. I disagree.
This is not new stuff. Look at the maps of world drawn by the British imperialists - those maps continue to cause wars and dissension 100 years later!
Trouble is we subjects of the (US) empire are totally clueless as to the games the big guys are playing. We somehow imagine that we are not IN history, but are somehow special, somehow exempt.
Even Ted Koppel's admission "it is about the oil" is part of game. As the oil dries up, it may will become possible to directly mobilize the populace: we need the oil -- let's go get it.
All this Wall Street talk about the intrinsic price of oil if so and so and such and such risk factor didn't exist is plain silly.
When you go to buy oil, it costs what it costs.