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CNN: Reporting on the Growing Peak Oil Meme
Posted by Prof. Goose on March 17, 2006 - 1:22pm
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: cnn, frank sesno, oil, oil prices, peak oil, we were warned [list all tags]
A brief comment if I may: [climbs on soapbox]The meme is developing, it is slowly and secularly becoming a part of the American consciousness, you can almost feel it. This is the time to share these ideas with the people you care about and help them learn something about these problems. Use these opportunities.[/climbs off soapbox]
Linked under the fold is something Leanan found on the Education portion of CNN, including a brief summary and a grade school classroom lesson about the production.
Summary of the entire program below.
It is September 2009. A Category 5 hurricane roars through Houston, destroying oil refineries, drilling platforms and pipelines--the complex system that provides a quarter of our nation's daily fuel supply. Three days later, terrorists attack two key oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest supplier. In the days and weeks that follow, gasoline prices hit record highs, food prices soar as trucks cannot afford to make deliveries, and Americans begin to realize that their very way of life is in peril.
It is September 2009. A Category 5 hurricane roars through Houston, destroying oil refineries, drilling platforms and pipelines--the complex system that provides a quarter of our nation's daily fuel supply. Three days later, terrorists attack two key oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest supplier. In the days and weeks that follow, gasoline prices hit record highs, food prices soar as trucks cannot afford to make deliveries, and Americans begin to realize that their very way of life is in peril.
In We Were Warned: Tomorrow's Oil Crisis, CNN's Frank Sesno explores the potential ripple effects of this frightening scenario. The events depicted are hypothetical, but oil experts believe the scenario is entirely plausible. His interviews with energy experts reveal that we are nearing the point at which the world, led by the U.S. and China, will begin to consume more oil than can be pumped from the ground and the oceans. Tracking the global race to find new pools of oil, Sesno also considers the viability of alternative fuels, such as ethanol, which is used as fuel for 40% of cars in Brazil. Throughout his investigation, Sesno tries to find out whether any of these ventures can solve our looming energy crisis or whether we are already too late.
The other overshoot problems can hopefully follow the peak oil trojan into consciousness.
The other thing that will be interesting is to see what the program says about when people think the peak will actually be. The poll question with the shortest time span said "within 25 years".
We will see if they get Deffeyes in there saying that it has already happened...
In keeping with Leanan's comments on Hawaii being a lousy place to experience Peak Oil, Maui is reporting a propane shortage. The above link is from www.urbansurvival.com, where George Ure has been noting a steady increase in the number of web links with the word "shortage."
Do not look to the mainstream media for thoughtful analysis of problems. Think infotainment.
I did just that in my most recent newspaper column on the subject last week, of which I'll quote a couple of grafs:
Note that I did NOT mention a hurricane or any other disaster, but rather just put this as part of a progression of "normal" price increases.
(I am the edtor of a suburban Dallas weekly paper and assistant managing editor of our five-newspaper group; total circ. about 17K.)
Otherwise, thanks for the kind words. Now, if only I could get hired by a bigger paper!
Texas Legislature is debating stopping construction of new highways and devoting soem of that money to electric trolley buses and urban rail (streetcars, light rail, commuter rail).
Of course, a number of suburbs haven't bought into DART and are maxed out on sales taxes.
And, with folks at Volvo now unveiling hybrid buses, mass transit is getting a newer (and cleaner) lease on life.
CNN has finally updated the main page:
http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/presents/
An opportunity exists for TOD to setup a 'scholastic' website version that caters to youngsters, and is specifically aimed to inform them and their teachers. The bright kids will find the DEFCON 1 sites of Dieoff.com and Savinar's LATOC on their own. Anything to help get more kids alerted and involved will be helpful.
My gut reaction is that most members of these numerous Peakoil forums are older farts like me. We need to actively include youngsters in the discussion because the future has always belonged to the kids, always will. Can the TOD website software setup an anynonomous poll to query members for age & skillset?
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Good for you for cluing your son into his future. I am really curious: what happens when he talks Peakoil to his friends and cousins? Is he considered a nutcase, or taken seriously? Has his friends' parents told you to stop your child from scaring their kids, or do they ask you for more info, books, and websites? I am starving for info on how many kids are Peakoil informed. Thxs for any reply.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast? [my signoff tagline]
I'm wondering if you and your son have been thinking about France's dependency on Nuclear, as well. I have read that we face a similar crisis in the availablity of high-grade Uranium ores, though I suppose America's warheads could power the world for a little while, if they can get down-converted instead of getting launched.
I'm in Maine, and we just finished dismantling our only Nuclear plant, 'Maine Yankee'.. and I'm not sad to see it go. I don't see nuclear as much of a 'Transition' fuel, since the energy we use to mine/refine and build reactors could as easily be applied to building Wind/Tide/Solar manufacturing, and implementing much more efficient uses of lighting, transp, heating, etc.
Bob
All my children have known about peak oil and its implications, as well as deflation and economic depression, for a long time. All of them have real skills in addition to what they learn in school and know that those skills are likely to be extremely important. They have farm chores to do and see the value in helping to provide for the necessities of their own existence. No time is wasted watching TV or playing computer games as these options are not available (and not missed). The link with the consumer society, and the path of least resistance, has been broken for them.
One might think that making young children aware of a difficult future would amount to wallowing in doom and gloom, but in fact the opposite is true. Teaching children real skills and imparting to them how important these are likely to be is very empowering. Children who are aware and prepared now can become the leaders of the future when leadership will be crucial.
Well said: "Teaching children real skills and imparting to them how important these are likely to be is very empowering. Children who are aware and prepared now can become the leaders of the future when leadership will be crucial".
Schools should be ripping out ballfields and teaching kids permiculture and animal husbandry skills. This is not only very instructive, but is a very calming and rewarding experience-- helps promote the cultural mindset of ERoEI > ERoVI. The big sports should become bicycle racing or distance racing to promote cardiovascular fitness and endurance. Shop classes in bicycle repairs, animal butchering and cooking, sewing & knitting, etc.
Each drainage basin or habitat should be assessing the best methods to Powerdown and achieve sustainability now to preclude later violence. For example: AZ's Maricopa County has increased by 536,000 in just the past five years [fastest growing in the Nation]. If the area leaders are proactive: they should institute massive Humanure requirements, very high water pricing levels, elimination of night-time external lighting, abolish car-washing, impose high energy taxes to promote Powerdown and fund Kunstler's goal of human-scale cities, and so on. These proposals would make many local residents migrate to other cities/habitats, reducing the chance of future AZ violence as most of the Phx area would gradually transmute into a sustainable ghosttown.
Otherwise, at crunch time, the sudden cutoff of imports of pipelined energy from Texas & CA will cause all hell to break loose; ERoVI > ERoEI.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Following my viewing of the documentary OilCrash! this past weekend I had the occasion to have dinner with a rather bright 18 year old young man and another gentleman, both of whom had also seen the film. The teenager is a fairly typical suburban kid with the X-Box in his bedroom on top of his TV, right next to the PC on his desk with 3,000 songs downloaded on his personally cataloged PC jukebox which is synchronized with his portable IPod. He glances at his cellphone every five or ten minutes, presumably viewing text messages from everyone he knows.
I asked him what he thought about the film, and he replied in a very unconcerned tone, "Oil runs out. Economic collapse, anarchy, government failing, resource wars, expensive gas." So I queried further about how that made him feel, in terms of his own future and he replied, again in an unconcerned tone, "life just comes and I just go with the flow, man. What else is there to do?" Further pressing got little more out of him. He understood the situation clearly, but not the problem.
So I discussed this response with the other gentleman sitting at the table who is closer to my age (47). And during our discussion we had a revelation -- this kid, and just about every other person that hasn't yet experienced independant life: lived out on their own, fully supporting themselves, who hasn't experienced the responsibilities of generating an income, supporting a car, running a family, assessing personal security, shopping for sustinance rather than bling, experienced the issues around medical trauma, voting after seriously considering issues, volunteering to serve his community or society in some way, experiencing the death of a loved one, living through financial challenges, etc, etc.... simply can't have the experience necessary to even conceive of the hardships that are coming his way. He doesn't have the ability to conceive of it because he has always been "taken care of" by someone else and been insulated from the hardships of life, as a child normally is. It's not his fault that he doesn't comprehend the seriousness by any means -- he's a kid growing up and that's what we do in America. But the revelation to myself and this other gentleman was that virtually all young people, say under the ages of 20-25, may clearly understand the situation, but simply can't conceive of the severity or true impacts of what's coming because they have no personal reference points to relate to it.
This is going to be a huge additional problem folks. How do we get it across to them?
I think you opened up a real 'can of worms' for us to consider in the problem of youngster Peakoil-outreach. My proposal is for the schools to have carefully supervised mandatory energy deprivation outings. A group of students would pedal their bicycles & gear out of the city to camp in the woods for a week. They would be fully fed by foraging for natural foodstuffs, or could choose to be hungry. Heat is only by woodfire, teach the kids how to kill & clean rabbits, fish, and chickens. This survival outing experience would help them grow up fast for the task ahead.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Good idea, but I'm thinking that the kids would just see it as a more intense version of camping.
What might be more realistic would be to go on a long ski style weekend to a remote lodge. The educators would then power down the area. It would be necessary to insure that the food supply was inadequate and that 'somehow' the fuel in all the cars/ transportation was gone. Of course, no cell or land line phones allowed.
After a day or so all the portable devices batteries would be drained, hunger would kick in, and the experience would start. I'm sure that long weekend scenario would get my kids attention.
The education environment could be played with a bit, for example, turning on the power for 2 minutes, then off again.
To set a good example for the children, why don't you start with yourself? Getting rid of your car is probably a good start.
I'd lose my job without a car. As it is, biking to work is dicey. Everyone just expects that I can travel to a meeting or visit a job-site thirty miles away at the drop of a hat.
I've gotten pretty good at anticipating, but every now and then I get caught without the car. Last week, my boss called. He was stuck in traffic, so I had to deliver some drawings and meet a client. So here I am riding the Xootr four miles up Opossumtown Pike in the rain, holding a roll of drawings in my non-shifting hand. I got there and they thought I was a courier.
Thank you for doing this in depth analysis.
I too have teen-age to young adult kids who don't seem to "get it" despite how often nut cake dad tries to talk to them.
All their life, they have seen mom and dad go to that big ATM machine, punch in the secret number that only adults get, and then remove the mullah.
In their minds, when you reach a certain age, you too will get the secret number and you too will get to draw out the mullah.
It's that simple.
It's a Paris Hilton world.
All elastic.
All you need is the plastic.
Get on MTV,
Be a rich celebrity. ...
(sing it to the tune of It's a Barbie World)
When Peak Oil recruits Paris Hilton - And we will if I have anything to do with it - We will get the message across.
The Revolution Will Not Be Televised.
But I wonder about the current generation. They are sheltered like no other generation ever has been. Many are rarely ever disciplined, because their parents don't want to "break their spirits." They are homeschooled, unschooled, etc., because their parents want to protect them from the school experience. (The "gay agenda," teachers who aren't good enough, bullying classmates, or whatever.) Many 20-somethings find the real world a rude shock when they leave the nest.
I still think young people will probably do okay. But I suspect their well-meaning parents aren't doing them any favors by raising them to think the world revolves around them.
OTOH, as Peggy Noonan pointed out...if we are headed into another Great Depression or worse, it would be hard for any parent to deny their children anything now.
This was one reason I left the chemical industry many years ago to move to a rural area where I could protect my life-style (as simple as it is). I'm one of those people who has a large PV system, solar hot water, a super insulated house,large garden and orchard, etc.
I live north of Willits, CA with it's relocalization group headed by Jason Bradford. My community has a relocalization group too and it is having little success getting people interested and keeping them interested. I don't participate to any degree (although I did give some of them a tour of our place) because none of the groups with which I am aware, including my local one, have ever taken to time to even prioritize what needs to be done. They are far too warm and fuzzy for my taste.
Is this the same Todd from the forum Yahoo:RunningOnEmptyTwo? If so: I greatly admire your knowledge and expertise: you will be a great addition to TOD. I always read your postings!
You are correct about most groups being too warm and fuzzy. Hopefully the upcoming CNN show will promote more radical cultural drive for Powerdown. Jay Hanson's Thermo-Gene Collision predicts that we will go down in the worst possible way-- only time will tell if he is correct. The hardest part is breaking through to the 'movers & shakers'-- no response to my emails! We need a Bill Gates or Richard Rainwater to lead the charge for change.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Sorry, different Todd - hope I can offer similar quality posts. However, I have been very seriously following peak energy/resources since about 1999 and have been into alternate energy since the early '80s (got my first 10watt PV panels in about '83). I first became concerned after The Limits to Growth was published in '72.
FWIW, I have sort of a strange background. The first part was in business; process development manager, new plant start-up manager, plant manager in the coatings, resins/polymers, synthetic rubber and adhesives industries. I suppose I should throw in electroplating since I did research on that right after college.
The second part is touched on in my first TOD post on another thread. I gave up the status and money of business for rural security many years ago and, since, have been everything from a small-scale, certified organic farmer to a home designer and builder. I live on top of a mountain on 57 acres.
Glad to know you just the same-- you and the other Todd seem like twin sons from different mothers. I am glad you live the way you do--good for you and your acreage. We need all the potential Arks we can get. I am a newbie compared to you as I only discovered Dieoff.com and Peakoil in '03--I got a lot of work, with very little money and time ahead of me.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
It would have been useful to get his reaction to the concept of being drafted to fight in Iran, OTOH.
My (38yr old) method for dealing with this with my own young kids is to point out all of the things we use oil for, which of those will likely continue, and what will happen to the others. We went to see the redwoods this past month on their winter break, but the subtext was that planes use a lot of oil-based fuel and this may be the last time we get to fly to California.
In general, we're trying to show them how to live well with less energy. We impress upon the kids that we bike most places to do our part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and because we'll still be able to bike even if gas gets outrageous. We grow an organic garden, in the city, and buy from our local Co-op and CSA farm, by bike. We switched mostly to a woodstove so they can see how it all works, including felling and cutting the wood with handsaws. We take the train to Chicago and use the El when we're there. We use th