People think, "I won't have to go to Florida anymore. Florida will come to me." People should realize that warmth doesn't mean Florida. It means New York is underwater. It may be that certain places like Siberia are more comfy, but it also means that they have no water. If people say, "Why should I be worried about global warming?" I think the answer is, "Do you like to eat?"

Global warming is suddenly really...er...hot.

Re:  Watching the Import Numbers

Last week,  average daily oil imports into the US rebounded slightly to 10.1 mbpd, but the average for March, 2006 (9.9 mbpd) was down about 4% from the average for March, 2005 (10.3 mbpd).  

There is always the possibility of statistical variations, but the concerns that Khebab and I have about net export capacity are based on the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method--which accurately predicted 99% of the post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 oil production.    Therefore, if the HL method is screaming problems ahead for net export capacity, and if average daily imports into the US for March are down about 4%, year over year, I think that we need to sit up and take notice.

I predict explosive increases in oil prices.

The "Export Land" Model:

 A critical point to keep in mind is that an exporter can only export what is left after domestic consumption is satisfied. Consider a simple example, a country producing 2.0 mbpd, consuming 1.0 mbpd and therefore exporting 1.0 mbpd. Let's assume a 25% drop in production over a six year period (which we have seen in the North Sea, which by the way peaked at 52% of Qt) and let's assume a 10% increase in domestic consumption. Production would be 1.5 mbpd. Consumption would be 1.1 mbpd. Net exports would be production (1.5 mbpd) less consumption (1.1 mbpd) = 0.4 mbpd. Therefore, because of a 25% drop in production and because of a 10% increase in domestic consumption, net oil exports from our hypothetical net exporter dropped by 60%, from 1.0 mbpd to 0.4 mbpd, over a six year period.

Note that car sales in Russia are up 15% year over year.

http://www.sbs.com.au/whatson/index.php3?progdate=01:04:2006

(Scroll down to 2013 - La Fin Du Petrole.)

More than 80% of the global economy relies on petroleum. What would happen if the world's oil supply dried up overnight? Directed by Stéphane Meunier and starring Hippolyte Girardot, Gwendoline Hamon and Helena Noguerra. 2013: Oil No More is a doco-drama based on the idea that oil companies, having vastly overstated their oil reserves to keep their value high, are faced with a wave of terrorist attacks aimed at jeopardising oil supplies to the West. Reluctantly, they have to own up with the fact there's only two years of supply left. Interviews with scientists, economists, environmentalists and Green politicians alternate with dramatisations following the life of greedy stock broker Paul. He has invested 90% of his company's shares in oil and watches with glee as the price of petrol skyrockets, until his professional and personal life are directly affected as a disastrous recession takes hold of the oil-dependent world. Also stars Nicolas Sarkis (Editor-in-Chief, Pétrole et Gaz Arabe), Jacques Attali (President, Planet France), Yves Cochet (Representative for Paris Green Party) and Jean-Marie Chevalier (Lecturer, Paris-Dauphine University, Director of C.E.R.A). (From France, in French and English, with English subtitles) CC WS

I think the latest energybulletin post is worth discussing:

http://energybulletin.net/14442.html

Basically points out that Peakoil Doomers should rightfully be seen as the 'ghost of Xmas future' and not as the Grim Reaper incarnate; that only a full disclosure of possible Peakoil ramifications can be the best motivation to generate historic political and social change.

I heartily agree with this author's assessment of looking at the worst, then encouraging the best.  It is much too easy to continue the habits of the easy-motoring status quo, the need to develop a constant awareness that civilization is only three meals deep is, by far, the best way to achieve Powerdown.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

A confluence of various issues.  Lack of rail capacity (Kunstler) * Consolidation of rail industry (Corporate mergers and monopolies) *  Coal displaced by consumer goods(!) as cargo  (Overconsumption)  *  Coal is not fungible  (Stuart?)  *  Wall street likes tight capacity --> higher prices  (Corporate capitalism?)  *  Flooding damaged tracks, adding to problem  (Climate change?)  *  100 more coal burning plants in the works as nat. gas fades!!  (End-of-the-world AWKI)  *  And...Conrad Burns greasing the rails!

Ultimately, I'm afraid this helps confirm that yes, the American Way of Life IS non-negotiable!  We will not change until we really really really HAVE TO.

Here's a taste from the introduction:

As globalization has spread, two opposing views of its future have emerged. The first scenario is
the belief in continued globalization, not just globalization of greater reach but also of greater
speed and strength. The second scenario is the opposite worldview of de-globalization. This
viewpoint often takes its cues from the environmental movement, which claims that resource
constraints of a finite globe will arrive shortly, making current global economic relationships
tenuous.

It's worth a read. I invite your comments.

Making A Living On The Farm

Many times, non-farm citizens wonder: "Why can't farms be the size they were in the early 1970's, and why can't family farms be successful at that size?" According to the 1974 USDA Census of Agriculture, the average farm size in South Central Minnesota was 261 acres of cropland, 25 dairy cows and 23 sows in a farrow-to-finish swine enterprise.

According to the MnSCU Farm Business Management (FBM) Summary of actual farm records for 2000-2004 in South Central Minnesota, the average net returns were $45.75/acre for corn, $38.30/acre for soybeans, $11.63/hog marketed, and $461.81/dairy cow . . .

With respect to energy:

This data points out why we continue to see farm sizes grow, why farmer operators are looking to diversify their farm business by adding livestock enterprises, why farm operators are looking to investments in ethanol, biodiesel, wind energy, etc. to supplement farm income . . .

From the Energy Bulletin article that Khebab and I coauthored:

Proposal: Replace the Payroll Tax with an Energy Tax

Some have argued that the suburbs are dead; the suburbanites just don't know it yet. It's probably more accurate to say that the suburban commutes are dead; the suburban commuters just don't know it yet.

We recommend that the United States abolish the payroll tax (Social Security + Medicare tax) and replace it with either a liquid transportation (petroleum) fuel tax or an overall (nonrenewable) energy tax.

The majority of American households pay more in the payroll tax than in the income tax. This would be a tax cut for most households and it would a massive tax increase on those who are profligate in their use of energy. No matter where one lives, the cost of goods would go up, but if you lived close to where you work, your effective tax rate would go down. Of course, those who persisted in long commutes would pay the price.

There would of course be very powerful forces opposed to this idea--the housing industry; auto industry; airlines; trucking--the list goes on. But the fates of these industries are sealed. It's not a question of if they will contract; it's just a question of when. The sooner it happens, and the sooner these industries start emphasizing energy efficiency, the better off we all will be.

A high gasoline tax does not necessarily equate to a lower standard of living. Norway, with the highest gasoline tax in the world, has the highest standard of living in the world, perhaps partly because their car ownership per 1,000 people is about half of what it is in the US.

There would be some other benefits. As we turned to walking, biking and mass transit, our health would improve. There is pretty much a linear correlation between obesity rates and total miles driven (here in the US, we are the world champs in both categories). In addition, since this is in effect a consumption tax, everyone who now avoids paying Social Security taxes would no longer be able to avoid paying them.

However, the primary reason for implementing the proposal is that it would cause an immediate and massive across the board push for greater energy efficiency and it would unleash enormous free market forces against profligate energy use.

Something's going on. Price goes up to U, there's a little profit taking, price goes down to D. Prices goes up to U1, where U1 > U. Profit taking lowers price to D1 where D1 > D. And over and over. At least that's my take on it. And the primetime driving season isn't even here yet.

Go to TFC Commodity Charts and look at the weekly chart. For some reason, they won't let me link it in here. Folks, we're headed toward $70 for sure sometime soon.

And I'll add that the displayed upward zig zag can not possibly reflect reactions to Nigeria, Iran, or other geopolitical events which in and of themselves follow no such pattern.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration will modestly raise the average fuel-economy standard for light trucks and sport utility vehicles to 24 miles per gallon by 2011, the White House said on Wednesday.

The change is not expected to hurt struggling U.S. automakers that produce the least efficient models of popular sport utilities and pickups, according to industry experts.

The current light truck standard was last updated three years ago and required 22.5 miles per gallon for the current model year.

Too little, too late?

My 9-year old son watched a litle of TEOS when I had it on, but after a short while, he got up and said, "This is too depressing.  I'm going to go play with my cars."

With rising energy prices squeezing profits, corporate managers are looking for alternatives. And there are signs that conservation measures - even those that don't cost a lot of money - are beginning to pay off.

...Company managers are apparently already looking hard for savings. Last fall, some 30 percent of those surveyed by the Alliance to Save Energy said they had made energy management a critical part of their business plan. A third said that were undertaking major capital projects to cut energy costs. And a quarter said they were at least working on low-cost, one-time fixes to try to cut energy bills.

With energy prices trending higher, the threat to the bottom line continues to grow. That's made the motivation for conserving fuel more compelling. Some 65 percent of U.S. companies think that escalating energy prices pose a potential roadblock to their company's growth over the next 12 months, according to a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Thanks

Indonesians Slam Exxon Mobil Takeover of Key Oil Field

Indonesians took to the streets of the Indonesian central city of Surakarta on Friday, March 24, to protest against the takeover of the country's largest oil discovery in decades by a US giant oil company.

"America has intimidated Indonesia to control the Cepu Block," said coordinator of the protest, who gave his first name as Mudzakir, The Jakarta Post reported Saturday, March 25.

The protestors said the US and other foreign powers were engaging in a new form of "colonization" through the domination of economic assets.

Barkely, Paul W.
    Economic Growth and Environmental Decay: The Solution Becomes the Problem. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich 1972

I see on amazon.com this book is for sale used for $0.09, which just goes to show that price sometimes has nothing whatsoever to do with value. This is the book that I had my freshmen students read during the first two weeks of class; it is an elegant short readable and nonpolemic discussion of economic growth and how it is linked to environmental decay. Though published more than thirty years ago, I do not know of any other book that so clearly discusses these issues.

Hardin, Garett
    EXPLORING NEW ETHICS FOR SURVIVAL: The Voyage of the Spaceship Beagle. Penguin Books 1973

This book contains the original "Tragedy of the Commons" as an appendix. I'll use the lazy man's way and quote from the back page: "This unusual and important book combines an ingenious appraisal of what man must do in order to survive on earth with the imaginary story of a spaceship's fantastic journey. Garrett Hardin sees the source of the current ecological crisis in the excessive demands that too many individuals make on limited resources. His unique approach covers population control, pollution control, agricultural reforms, and the problems of private property as it shows what far-reaching changes we must bring about in politics, economics, and ethics."

To this comment I'll add my own: If you want to understand how we got into the mess we are now in and what we need to do to deal with Peak Oil and related issues, this book is as important as any ever published. In other words, I put it on an equal basis with Jared Diamond's COLLAPSE and also with whichever book is your favorite.

The following citiation is to an updated version of the book
book I used in the seventies:
Daly, Herman E. (Editor) and Kenneth N. Townsend (Editor)
     VALUING THE EARTH: Economics, Ecology, Ethics.

This book includes some of the most cited articles in the field; you do not have to be an economist to understand any of them, but for a couple of articles some classes in economics are a big help.

In addition I assigned readings from the following books,
Cook, Earl
   MAN, ENERGY, SOCIETY

Keynes, John Maynard
   ESSAYS IN PERSUASION
This book contains the famous "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren" essay which explains that economic growth is merely a temporary means needed to solve the problem of scarcity, and that by the year 2030 prosperous societies should have no further need of economic growth to provide decent lives for all.

Sahlins, Marshall
   STONE AGE ECONOMICS: The Original Affluent Society
The first part of this book is the best, wherein anthropologist Sahlins makes the case that for many stone age societies there was abundant food and leisure. People felt no economic "wants" beyond the most basic things because they were nomads and could accumulate no more than they could carry in their hands--including babies and toddlers.
     Some anthropologists have questioned Sahlin's conclusions, and my own are that while many hunting and gathering societies did approximate the Garden of Eden story that Sahlins tells, some others did not. Because nobody was taking notes thirty thousand years ago, nobody really knows, but early contacts with stone-age tribes such as the San (also known by other names) suggests that Sahlins probably was essentially correct at least in a large number of cases.

BTW, Environmental Economics was the most fun and the most life-transforming class I ever taught, and despite a long reading list, essay tests and fairly hard grading, almost nobody flunked or dropped out. Students in the seventies generally got very excited and stimulated by a discussion of these issues, and some went on to careers as environmental chemists or limnologists.

I wonder, how many TOD readers have ever taken a class in environmental economics? And what impact did the class have on you?

Please read the two linked articles below. Why should I be depressed alone? How does nuclear war affect peak?

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204-p0/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204-p0/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html

on the dollars expected fall
http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2006/03/28/afx2625991.html

Boycotts, blogs and apocalyptic jihad
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jiaa/jiaa060328_1_n.shtml

and honestly , so glad we have no vegan discussion tonite ...

http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level_English.php?cat=Terrorism&loid=8.0.281390501&par=

"Riyadh, 29 March (AKI) - Saudi security forces have thwarted a terrorist attack on Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery Abqaiq, the second in two months, according to media reports. The Kuwaiti news agency KUNA and the Iraqi Radio Nawa report that police discovered two car bombs in the area. Local daily al-Riyadh reports that Saudi police on Tuesday carried out house searches in the al-Mantar area of Abqaib, where some employees of Saudi oil giant Aramco live, arms and explosive were discovered in one of the homes and one man was arrested. Reports say that the vehicles to be used in the attack bore the company logo."

East Coast farewell tour starts tomorrow. The Fat Lady (TFL) is more than willing to meet TDM posters in the Atlanta area the first week of April.  TFL has had a very good first quarter investing in energy stocks, and will buy lunch for TOD folk who can carry on reasonably intelligent conversations.  E-Mail me at JBAndrsn@yahoo.com.

http://www.donalfagan.com/html/pellet_stove.html

The little mat in front of the stove is the cat's spot for after my wife shoos him off the couch.

They CANNOT reinstitute the draft here. The armed forces are having a heck of problem recruiting. Solution: double digit unemployment.

Inflation is inevitable at some point, but so is drastically reduced economic activity and high unemployment. This is when things start to get really ugly. In Germany things occurred in a different order: first there was runaway inflation and economic collapse, then came the "savior" who through war preparations got their (and our -- DS is right about that) economy going again. Our "saviors" have launched war in good (relatively) times.  But they cannot continue it without bad times, which I'm sure they'll get. Our real suffering has yet to commence I'm afraid.

Fesharaki suggested that PTT Exploration and Production Plc should spend between $5 billion and $10 billion to acquire small and medium-sized US or European oil companies that it can use as a 'vehicle' to take it forward on its next step.

as for future trends, which all readers here are familiar with Fasharaki said:

"We're not in a cycle, but in a changed paradigm," he said. "Oil prices will continue to go up."