Regarding Cheney, what is the lowest favoribility rating where when you shoot somebody, your poll numbers actually go up? I call this the redneck effect.
On another thing, concerning this "breech" versus "over-topping" problem with the New Orleans levees, everything I have ever seen regarding flooding is that when something over-tops it will soon breech due to the forces of the water. You see this all the time with roads, etc, getting washed out, when flood waters get too high.
Sorry, I have been listening to some wing-nut radio today.
I provide "wing-nut" detox (in twelve steps or less, your choice) in a state of the art sound-proof facility here on blue-state MDI. Call for favorable rates. I promise not to blather on res lexi
May 2007
Stuart, which are more reliable numbers EIA, IEA, AIE, IAE, IKEA ? Error bars for the most reliable numbers? Chocolate Bars and members of the Bar for the rest?
I am about as apolitical as I wanna be, and love to laught at Baby Doc Bush as much as the next rear-or-the-Bus driver... but to be honest, I think Oil Man Bush and his advisors going into his first term Knew darned well what we were facing.
I also think it's pretty clear this mess was Unavoidable (we be critters too ya know - with only a tiny layer of "self-awareness-greyishywhitematter" separating us from the next critter down on the self-conscious scale...why do we expect so much better behavior from Homo sap ? "Is this a Fair and Reasonable Expectation," asks The Mother as she reviews her copies of "The Naked Ape and Human Zoo")
I also think it is NO one's fault... this Wave was inevitable and is not attributable to any one person or nation etc etc... finger pointing in Past Waves seems mostly to confuse and then distract from solving the problem (e.g. N.O = Katrina ClusterCoitus type of responses).
Unfortunately (maybe... - after All "good" and "bad" in these situations are Defined by The Mothe of Nature and if not mistaken, I think She does the Sorting Out Of later too)...unfortunately it looks like Bush went for the Historical and Typical and Easy Way Out of SpyvsSpy, Military-Might-Makes-Right approach.
IMHO it appears that Bush et. al chose to SECURE Iraqi oil and keep it on the open mkt as opposed to Stealing it for America onyl (etc, etc, Maybe). Nice of the Euro's to trash us in public but Drink the Iraqi Black Blood we ensure makes it to the market just the same... )hippocritters just like us 'mericans afterall i guesses)...
The Jury on Bush II, the Nightmare Begins, is probably going to be out for a while until Further Reliable (i.e. Not from the tri-somic monochromatic media Hype-n-Type 4 Cash) Information/Data is made available in the future some day... (when we are looking Back at the Peak of Energy Dayze...).
If that is what you deliberately chose to believe, fine. But some people would rather put their emotions and the popular Strawman-of-the-Month aside, consider the facts in light of HISTORY... as well as your current life-experience.
And people who do those things may beg to differ. Or might not bother because it is a childishly distrating subject.
IF and when Someone somewhere in Time THEN looks back to NOW and can actually PinPoint a Single Individual upon which This Wave's CREST's Fate rests, go back in Time tHEN, and kill him.
And Exactly one (1) week later Someone ELSE will pick the wings of the same Butterfly and the Same Effect will be affected.
"Not a big revelation, but I thought quite obvious.
"
Or... a big SCAPEGOAT DISTRACTION for Homo Wimps who muble,[piss and moan when Some ONE ESLE failed to Notice They had Diaper Rash...
I mean really. "Mommy, why did you not notice when I slammed my finger in the door Four Years ago and take the Door off the Hinges or fix it better for me While I PARTIED like it was still 1999... the Year of the Cats-Who-Could-Create Matter and Energy even ...
PASS THE PAPER FIAT Mother... i hear they need it to dry their crocodilic, faux, terra fauna tears.
WHAT ??? oh, i wouldn't go that far The Mother... but then again, it is Your Universe and youse DOES make these laws don'tcha... as well as the Sentences of the Weak and REALITY TV Famous... take 'em out and sort 'em later Mother.
1. The lower rear portion of the human trunk; the buttocks.
2.
1. A breech presentation or delivery.
2. A fetus in breech presentation.
breach
1.
1. An opening, a tear, or a rupture.
2. A gap or rift, especially in or as if in a solid structure such as a dike or fortification.
2. A violation or infraction, as of a law, a legal obligation, or a promise.
3. A breaking up or disruption of friendly relations; an estrangement.
4. A leap of a whale from the water.
5. The breaking of waves or surf.
The first thing that happened was that the floodwalls and levees were overtopped. With the floodwalls the water fell down the onshore side and eroded away the support for the wall, in most places chewing down a cavity that was about 3 ft wide on the land side of the wall. The loss of resistance, and local factors would then cause one segment of the wall to move in as the land-side resistance failed, and the sheet piling bent into a spout shape in most places.
The major difference at the Lower Ninth Ward (where all the videos are usually shot) is that the wall was breached by a barge than ran along the wall as it went through it, knocking out and moving some 200 yards or more of wall, almost instantaneously. Thus, instead of just a slow rising water level, in that case there was a wall of water than entered the city. It removed all the dwellings for about four blocks carrying everything before it until it started to run out of power and dumped most of the debris (house bits, cars etc), which caused barriers that redirected some of the flow then laterally. This sudden failure and large damage zone was atypical of the city damage. On the other hand down the delta whenever the water overtopped the levees the damage was almost total as it was whipped up by the force of the hurricane.
Quite frankly wrong, at least for the 17th Street and Orleans Canal breaches, which flooded a majority of New Orleans.
The debris line was over a foot from the top. Terrible Corps of Engineers design did not sink pilings deep enough, water went underneath and bubbled up on the other side. Eventually this "tunneled" and undermined the levees there.
In Placquemines and St. Bernard, the Corps of Engineers built Mr GO (Mississippi River Gulf Outlet) was also a Gulf of Mexico Gulf Inlet and, after having destroyed the swamps around it with salt water intrusion, let in a wave of water that over topped the levees in that side.
Just got back from dinner @ GW Fins with two Corps of Engineers engineers. A good friend is a City of New Orleans Public Works engineer who got back in on Wednesday after Katrina and took photos before evidence was bulldozed.
Not to be controversial but I do have a picture from the 17th St breech, showing the overtopping scar as it was filled in during the creation of the new wall.
Without seeing that specific photo, I have talked with those engineers on the scene. In the undermine scenario, the concrete plates would fall underneath the waves as the dirt disappeared underneath. The intact concrete plates next to the breach showed debris lines a foot from the top. Since all plates were within an inch of each other in height before Katrina, if it did not overtop next to the breach AND there is clear evidence of a sand boil in the yard of a neighbor, then this supports the undermining explanation.
Note, more than one breach on the 17th Street Canal (love the Quality control at the Corps of Engineers !), so there may be more than one mechanism for failure.
This is a typical overtopping scour (from the Industrial Canal). The width is about 3-4 ft and you can see the sheet piles exposed under the concrete wall. The sheet piles are then moved forward and tilt.
This was from down at Port Sulfur. Note that the water flow has gouged out down to bedrock in front of the sheet piles.
The concrete slabs on top are then thrown forward
This is from the center of the 17th St failure. You can see the slabs fell forward and not back,
We have many photos that show similarities across the floodwall failures around NOLA and the delta, but these I can use, since they are mine, the rest will only be available when the report is released.
I didn't know Louisiana had any "bedrock". Most of my projects, we only hit stiff clay and oyster shells sometimes if we were lucky. I worked a lot up at Taft and then down in Homa, Lake Charles, Lafayette, Morgan City and a lot we did only on piles set deep into muck with a build up of shell on the surface. I thought most all of its the kind of gumbo you can't eat, clay gumbo; kinda' too thick to drink, but too thin to plow.
I may have got that wrong - I wasn't about to go down and look, though it did look like a rock slab it could have been a hard layer of clay, and it was fairly deep below the surface.
Everything in LA and East Texas is Clay Clay Clay, in varying degrees of "stiffness". Sometimes you do see a pretty stiff layer that you'd almost think is rock, but usually its just clay with a lot of micro coral shells well embedded.
It's a lazy day, resting for my penultimate performance in Not Now, Darling. I've noticed that we often project our hopes for social changes onto energy depletion, hoping people will behave more like us when they don't have so much cheap energy. I wonder how community theatre will change in an energy-depleted USA? We now have actors driving some distance to rehearse and perform, so I guess local theatre may become more truly local. I think of that town-hall show from The Shipping News (book).
I speculate that television may become largely broadcast-local again. In a slow squeeze, or worse, I can't imagine most people paying $30 to $80 a month for cable TV.
Most everything you wanted to know about the Alaskan oil spill, caused by deterioration of the pipeline system - that curiously has escaped the attention of even POers:
I posted a link to a news story about this in another thread but it did not generate any comments the last time I looked. This will have some political repercussions but it's not big enough to really rattle the market. This is leftist environmental manna from heaven - free political saber rattling against the evil oil companies but in reality I am not sure it's hugely relevant to the peak oil discussion. Then again, maybe I am missing some angle on this.
I saw your previous post and did have a look at the leak, sorry link. I didn't think it too terribly significant, because it looked like it was not the TAPS mainline, appeared to be quite small and under control. Todays update seems to confirm it is only a gathering pipeline.
So the interior and exterior corrosion damage known to have occurred in the gathering pipeline is not indictaive of the rest of the Alaskan Pipeline system?
Leaks in the TAPline are not something I worry about. It's the gathering system from the wells that is my concern. If there are five valves between the oil in the ground under pressure from gas, and the open air (to fuel an oil well fire), and four of them have already failed, you are one failure away from catastrophe and not being able to drill the ANWAR because of the bad publicity.
The TAPline has hundreds of valves between a section of the pipeline and disaster. It's bigger, but not as dangerous.
Leaks in TAPS are much more threatening. Valves can be up to 25 to 30 miles apart in some locations. In the gathering system, generally, valves will not be more than a few to say 10 miles maximum. In my experience, it is not uncommon to have leaks in gathering systems at all. That's where the most valves, flanges, gaskets, pipe elbows and other fittings are, so there's more opportunities to have leaks there.
A lot of people think, more valves on a pipeline are better, but actually this is true only up to a certain number. The probability of having a given leakage volume increases with the number of valves and their associated joints, weight, supports, flanges and stem packings, lubrication ports, etc. increases such that the benefit actually become less. This is balanced against the probability of losing the same amount of oil from a pipeline segment between any two given valves a given distance apart. Thus the overall probability of having any leak is minimized.
I looked at all the reports and there is no mention of 4 of 5 valves that had failed. Actually they still don't say anything about a reason for the leak yet. Pictures don't show any valves in the area. So, maybe it will be corrosion or a weld crack.
Really the greatest risk for uncontrolled HC releases and fire is actually when drilling. Afterwards, the process equipment areas become the most critical areas. Note, there was no fire in this location.
Don't know about the TAPline failure you are discussing. My mention of 4 of 5 valves failing is from an example from a gathering system on the slope. That situation is much more threatening because the whole of the oil deposit is pushing a billion barrels of oil and gas out of the structure, unlike the TAPline where they think a ten thousand barrel spill is a big deal.
I think they are probably taking a little better care of the TAPS mainline. It can be inspected by inserting "intelligent" pigs and running them the length of the pipeline while they record any corrosion pitting and look for cracks in weld joints, etc. This is usually not the case for gathering system pipelines, where the lines are much shorter and there are typically a lot of people close by that can monitor ops and respond quickly.
The TAPS system also has an advanced SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system, as do most pipelines today. The SCADA systems have a subroutine that automatically detects leaks. Pipeline flows and pressures all along the pipeline are read every 5 seconds and compared to theoretical hydraulic flow and pressure calculations. If there is any significant differences between actual readings and calculated results that indicate a leak has occured, an alarm is triggered and the operators shut down the pipeline. The SCADA system will indicate the size and the approximate location of the leak. The emergency spill response plan is then put into action and appropriate equipment and personnel are sent to investigate and control the situation.
That's right,... if they have them in the gathering system. The TAPS mainline is covered by the Federal Pipeline Design and Operating Regulations, CFR 49, Part 192. On the mainlines, there are design standards and it is required to do some regular inspections and testing and operators have to be certified as competant. "The Problem", according to my experience, is that these regulations DO NOT apply to gathering systems. I've always argued that they should apply everywhere, but its not the case. This is why a lot of the leaks, explosions and fires occur in the gathering systems. The only good(?) thing about that is that there usually arn't too many people around the gathering systems. The gathering system I worked on would have a pipeline explosion almost every week. When I started working there I began designing the new pipelines according to the CFRs and just didn't tell my boss I was doing it.
One of the things that's puzzled me about Great Britain is the relative lack of public debate about North Sea oil production having peaked, not only peaked, but sliding over into fairly rapid decline. Why don't people talk about it more? I mean it's not as if this doesn't have enormous implications for the economy. A few years ago one had enough oil to cover dosmestic demand, earn billions exporting oil and now it's over. Britain has to import oil and the natural gas situation is even worse.
The reason I think this is relevant for more than just people living in the U.K. is that there are possible lessons to learn for other countries entering peak oil and maybe patterns will emerge that are interesting to observe with international implications.
For example the U.K.'s political and strategic relations with Russia who are going to be providing lots of gas. Then there's the whole question of nuclear. It appears that Tony Blair, having prayed to his God for inspiration, is going to say yes to a massive increase in nuclear power. Or as they like to call it, the new generation of nuclear power stations.
I remember well over twenty-five years ago whilst at university stating that I thought the oil revenues should be used primarally for three things. Investment in a new transport infrastructure based on a modernised railway system. The modernization of healthcare provision. And finally a radically better education system, so we'd have something to live on when the oil ran out. The development of new industries to replace the old. Instead the money was wasted on tax cuts for the well-off, a massive consumer boom based on cheap energy, and among other things the distruction of the domestic coal industry.
Britain managed it's oil wealth not that differently from some developing nations. That is not really investing in the future, but consuming in the now.
It was strange because the oil was such a gift from posterity, almost a lifeline and the money could have been used so much better. Britain reminded me at the time of an aging courtesan who is suddenly left a small fortune by an admirer. What does she do with the money? Instead of buying a hotel or farm in the country, she opts for a huge party for all her friends and a lot of cosmetic plastic surgury! When the money's gone, she's older and still she end's up on the street corner.
I agree, but then the US decline never got people's attn here either. As long as people can fill their own tanks and go, most don't give oil/gas a thought. Many people I have spoken with don't even realize US oil has been declining. Then when there's a problem, they try to find someone to blame.
Based on a Hubbert Linearization (HL) plot I did, total North Sea oil (crude + condensate) production peaked in 1999 at 52% of Qt (Ultimate Recoverable Reserves). Also, as suggested by the P/Q intercept, the North Sea decline has been fairly steep. Not much mystery here. Lower 48 peaked at 48%. Texas at 54%. The world is at 50%. The top four net oil exporters are at around 65% of Qt, which suggests that we will soon see a furious bidding war (hopefully not a shooting war) for the available net export capacity.
As Matt Simmons noted, the top 10 major oil companies working the North Sea--using the best data and engineers in the world--were predicting that the North Sea would not peak until 2010. Keep this in mind when people talk about tremendous remaining reserves in Russia and when ExxonMobil talks about trillions of barrels of remaining reserves. The industry couldn't get it right in a very compact region like the North Sea, but the simple HL method got it right.
Sorry if you answered this before westexas, but I'm too lazy to go back through your previous posts this morning. I'm curious about your calculation showing that the top 4 oil exporters are at 65% of Qt. Does this mean that they are all well past peak now and their collective production is declining? If their production is not declining yet, how have they managed to keep it up so far past the 50% Qt mark?
Khebab did all the technical work (and he has his own opinions).
In round numbers (based on HL), I think that Saudi Arabia is about 55% depleted, Russia around 88% (at least existing fields), Norway 65% and Iran, 50%. Khebab and I are working on an article on this.
Regarding Cheney, what is the lowest favoribility rating where when you shoot somebody, your poll numbers actually go up? I call this the redneck effect.
On another thing, concerning this "breech" versus "over-topping" problem with the New Orleans levees, everything I have ever seen regarding flooding is that when something over-tops it will soon breech due to the forces of the water. You see this all the time with roads, etc, getting washed out, when flood waters get too high.
Sorry, I have been listening to some wing-nut radio today.
I also think it's pretty clear this mess was Unavoidable (we be critters too ya know - with only a tiny layer of "self-awareness-greyishywhitematter" separating us from the next critter down on the self-conscious scale...why do we expect so much better behavior from Homo sap ? "Is this a Fair and Reasonable Expectation," asks The Mother as she reviews her copies of "The Naked Ape and Human Zoo")
I also think it is NO one's fault... this Wave was inevitable and is not attributable to any one person or nation etc etc... finger pointing in Past Waves seems mostly to confuse and then distract from solving the problem (e.g. N.O = Katrina ClusterCoitus type of responses).
Unfortunately (maybe... - after All "good" and "bad" in these situations are Defined by The Mothe of Nature and if not mistaken, I think She does the Sorting Out Of later too)...unfortunately it looks like Bush went for the Historical and Typical and Easy Way Out of SpyvsSpy, Military-Might-Makes-Right approach.
IMHO it appears that Bush et. al chose to SECURE Iraqi oil and keep it on the open mkt as opposed to Stealing it for America onyl (etc, etc, Maybe). Nice of the Euro's to trash us in public but Drink the Iraqi Black Blood we ensure makes it to the market just the same... )hippocritters just like us 'mericans afterall i guesses)...
The Jury on Bush II, the Nightmare Begins, is probably going to be out for a while until Further Reliable (i.e. Not from the tri-somic monochromatic media Hype-n-Type 4 Cash) Information/Data is made available in the future some day... (when we are looking Back at the Peak of Energy Dayze...).
It was a failure of leadership, with the fault resting on the shoulders of one man.
And people who do those things may beg to differ. Or might not bother because it is a childishly distrating subject.
And Exactly one (1) week later Someone ELSE will pick the wings of the same Butterfly and the Same Effect will be affected.
I think I bet.
Not a big revelation, but I thought quite obvious.
"
Or... a big SCAPEGOAT DISTRACTION for Homo Wimps who muble,[piss and moan when Some ONE ESLE failed to Notice They had Diaper Rash...
I mean really. "Mommy, why did you not notice when I slammed my finger in the door Four Years ago and take the Door off the Hinges or fix it better for me While I PARTIED like it was still 1999... the Year of the Cats-Who-Could-Create Matter and Energy even ...
PASS THE PAPER FIAT Mother... i hear they need it to dry their crocodilic, faux, terra fauna tears.
WHAT ??? oh, i wouldn't go that far The Mother... but then again, it is Your Universe and youse DOES make these laws don'tcha... as well as the Sentences of the Weak and REALITY TV Famous... take 'em out and sort 'em later Mother.
breech Audio pronunciation of "breech" ( P ) Pronunciation Key (brch)
n.
1. The lower rear portion of the human trunk; the buttocks.
2.
1. A breech presentation or delivery.
2. A fetus in breech presentation.
1. The lower rear portion of the human trunk; the buttocks.
2.
1. A breech presentation or delivery.
2. A fetus in breech presentation.
breach
1.
1. An opening, a tear, or a rupture.
2. A gap or rift, especially in or as if in a solid structure such as a dike or fortification.
2. A violation or infraction, as of a law, a legal obligation, or a promise.
3. A breaking up or disruption of friendly relations; an estrangement.
4. A leap of a whale from the water.
5. The breaking of waves or surf.
The major difference at the Lower Ninth Ward (where all the videos are usually shot) is that the wall was breached by a barge than ran along the wall as it went through it, knocking out and moving some 200 yards or more of wall, almost instantaneously. Thus, instead of just a slow rising water level, in that case there was a wall of water than entered the city. It removed all the dwellings for about four blocks carrying everything before it until it started to run out of power and dumped most of the debris (house bits, cars etc), which caused barriers that redirected some of the flow then laterally. This sudden failure and large damage zone was atypical of the city damage. On the other hand down the delta whenever the water overtopped the levees the damage was almost total as it was whipped up by the force of the hurricane.
The debris line was over a foot from the top. Terrible Corps of Engineers design did not sink pilings deep enough, water went underneath and bubbled up on the other side. Eventually this "tunneled" and undermined the levees there.
In Placquemines and St. Bernard, the Corps of Engineers built Mr GO (Mississippi River Gulf Outlet) was also a Gulf of Mexico Gulf Inlet and, after having destroyed the swamps around it with salt water intrusion, let in a wave of water that over topped the levees in that side.
Just got back from dinner @ GW Fins with two Corps of Engineers engineers. A good friend is a City of New Orleans Public Works engineer who got back in on Wednesday after Katrina and took photos before evidence was bulldozed.
Note, more than one breach on the 17th Street Canal (love the Quality control at the Corps of Engineers !), so there may be more than one mechanism for failure.
This is a typical overtopping scour (from the Industrial Canal). The width is about 3-4 ft and you can see the sheet piles exposed under the concrete wall. The sheet piles are then moved forward and tilt.
This was from down at Port Sulfur. Note that the water flow has gouged out down to bedrock in front of the sheet piles.
The concrete slabs on top are then thrown forward
We have many photos that show similarities across the floodwall failures around NOLA and the delta, but these I can use, since they are mine, the rest will only be available when the report is released.
eMail with directions (friend of mine with Public Works took them) Alan_Drake@Juno.com
I speculate that television may become largely broadcast-local again. In a slow squeeze, or worse, I can't imagine most people paying $30 to $80 a month for cable TV.
ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION
Division of Spill Prevention and Response
Prevention and Emergency Response Program
SITUATION REPORT
Peakoil.com
The TAPline has hundreds of valves between a section of the pipeline and disaster. It's bigger, but not as dangerous.
A lot of people think, more valves on a pipeline are better, but actually this is true only up to a certain number. The probability of having a given leakage volume increases with the number of valves and their associated joints, weight, supports, flanges and stem packings, lubrication ports, etc. increases such that the benefit actually become less. This is balanced against the probability of losing the same amount of oil from a pipeline segment between any two given valves a given distance apart. Thus the overall probability of having any leak is minimized.
I looked at all the reports and there is no mention of 4 of 5 valves that had failed. Actually they still don't say anything about a reason for the leak yet. Pictures don't show any valves in the area. So, maybe it will be corrosion or a weld crack.
Really the greatest risk for uncontrolled HC releases and fire is actually when drilling. Afterwards, the process equipment areas become the most critical areas. Note, there was no fire in this location.
The TAPS system also has an advanced SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system, as do most pipelines today. The SCADA systems have a subroutine that automatically detects leaks. Pipeline flows and pressures all along the pipeline are read every 5 seconds and compared to theoretical hydraulic flow and pressure calculations. If there is any significant differences between actual readings and calculated results that indicate a leak has occured, an alarm is triggered and the operators shut down the pipeline. The SCADA system will indicate the size and the approximate location of the leak. The emergency spill response plan is then put into action and appropriate equipment and personnel are sent to investigate and control the situation.
After three days, the latest news is that they have finally identified the source of the leek.
The reason I think this is relevant for more than just people living in the U.K. is that there are possible lessons to learn for other countries entering peak oil and maybe patterns will emerge that are interesting to observe with international implications.
For example the U.K.'s political and strategic relations with Russia who are going to be providing lots of gas. Then there's the whole question of nuclear. It appears that Tony Blair, having prayed to his God for inspiration, is going to say yes to a massive increase in nuclear power. Or as they like to call it, the new generation of nuclear power stations.
I remember well over twenty-five years ago whilst at university stating that I thought the oil revenues should be used primarally for three things. Investment in a new transport infrastructure based on a modernised railway system. The modernization of healthcare provision. And finally a radically better education system, so we'd have something to live on when the oil ran out. The development of new industries to replace the old. Instead the money was wasted on tax cuts for the well-off, a massive consumer boom based on cheap energy, and among other things the distruction of the domestic coal industry.
Britain managed it's oil wealth not that differently from some developing nations. That is not really investing in the future, but consuming in the now.
It was strange because the oil was such a gift from posterity, almost a lifeline and the money could have been used so much better. Britain reminded me at the time of an aging courtesan who is suddenly left a small fortune by an admirer. What does she do with the money? Instead of buying a hotel or farm in the country, she opts for a huge party for all her friends and a lot of cosmetic plastic surgury! When the money's gone, she's older and still she end's up on the street corner.
As Matt Simmons noted, the top 10 major oil companies working the North Sea--using the best data and engineers in the world--were predicting that the North Sea would not peak until 2010. Keep this in mind when people talk about tremendous remaining reserves in Russia and when ExxonMobil talks about trillions of barrels of remaining reserves. The industry couldn't get it right in a very compact region like the North Sea, but the simple HL method got it right.
In round numbers (based on HL), I think that Saudi Arabia is about 55% depleted, Russia around 88% (at least existing fields), Norway 65% and Iran, 50%. Khebab and I are working on an article on this.