We Have Much Work to Do, People...
Posted by Prof. Goose on May 10, 2006 - 10:05pm
Topic: Sociology/Psychology
Tags: australia, gas prices, google, new zealand, peak oil, portland [list all tags]
Stiffpicken says rightly: "I punched in "peak oil" ... search volume appears to have hit its own plateau but news volume is on the rise." Then Mike A notices: "What is really SOBERING though, is to compare search and news volumes between 'peak oil' and 'gas prices'. 'Peak oil' hardly shows a blip compared to 'gas prices', which implies to me that most people are still not making the connection. [...] Again, check the distribution of languages - in English 'gas prices' have far, far more results, but the Europeans seem to "get it", with 'peak oil' having more responses in Swedish, Finnish, Dutch & German (in that volume order)."
Then I was playing around and made a couple more observations: 1) Portland seems to be the most peak aware city via google, followed by Austin and Seattle. 2) BUT, even more interestingly, look at the regions tab. New Zealand and Australia have more raw numbers of people (i.e., not percentages folks) searching for "peak oil" than in the United States! What's the population proportion between the US and those two countries? 20m-ish for Australia and 4m-ish for New Zealand, compared to 300m-ish for the US!
We have much work to do in the US folks. Much much work. And good on you New Zealand and Oz!
I seriously doubt that "peak oil", at least as the term is understood by the majority of folks on this board will NEVER get into mainstream American consciousness.
It will be "gas prices are high, let's go get (insert scapegoat here)." It was that way at $2 per gallon, it's still that way at $3 per gallon and I strongly suspect it will be that way at $6 and $9 per gallon.
There will still be enough of a niche that sites like TOD, FTW, LATOC, PO.com, etc enjoy healthy streams of traffic but I doubt it will ever be in the mainstream consciousness the way gas prices or even gay marriage is.
PG, you have to ask yourself, "do I really want people to understand what is going on?" I don't know what your personal "plan" is or if you even have one outlined yet but I'm going to go out on a limb and assumme that plan would be severely impinged upon by either the loss of your job or a serious drop in salary.
If people understood what is happening, you can pretty much kiss the social sciences at the universtiy level goodbye. Those disciplines (and college level ed. in general) will be severely contracting, which would put you in a not-very favorable position.
That's just an example. Most of us are similarly situated and are thus probably better off with this issue remaining somewhat on the fringe. Sorry, but it's true.
Best,
Matt
Is that something the average reader of TOD can personbally afford to see happen?
Best,
Matt
It does put us, particularly those of us who make a living from these issues, in a weird position though. On the one hand a little bit of awareness is great as it generates more traffic, more revenue, book/dvd sales, etc.
But a lot of awareness might push things towards the panic stage in which case people such as myself are likely as screwed as anybody.
Best,
Matt
I've probably been Amazon's best customer over the last few months. First I read up on Peak Oil. Now I'm ordering books on all kinds of subjects from canning and food storage to permaculture and hay bale home construction. The combination of Peak Oil and a soon-to-be-worthless dollar makes me want to get the info I need before I can't.
Here's your gold star.
Although, I will admit that there is definently at least a dash of darkness in it.
I guess the reason I see our sites as being vital is that they aggregate brain/thought power on the subject in a collective; they facilitate learning and thinking.
Perhaps it is a naive goal, but it has always seemed to me that, if we can get all the smart people to come together in an energized manner, we can make the kinds of change we need to soften the landing enough happen.
I know you and I don't agree on that possibility. I don't even think it's a likelihood. However, I have felt from the very beginning that a try was in order.
Still, I do agree with you that every second that passes without change and awareness, you're more likely to be right.
That's how I felt the first year. If I remember correctly, you got "peak oil bitchslapped" a little more than a year and a half ago, correct?
My bet is another 6-to-9 months and you'll be in the Jay Hanson brigade with me and TheLastSasquatch.
Best,
Matt
there's nothing quite like your first peak oil bitchslap.
seeing as this is an empirical question, let's see how we are in nine months, eh?
(if it's anything like those winning peak oil scenarios over at beyondpeak.org, we're foooked.)
Right you are. Last year, at my spouse's suggestion, I did a few sessions with a psychologist to work through my own post-bitchslap depression. The shrink knew, of course, nothing about the peak oil concept, but after a half-dozen sessions I felt I had him pretty well educated. At our last visit, I suggested he do some marketing in this soon-to-be-booming niche. Could be a strong growth sector for psychologists!
But I agree, there is a growing demand for healing...
My spouse also recommended that I need to see a shrink.
The Tree of Knowledge is a depressing thing, especially once you grasp the visceral impacts of peak oil and rapid climate change.
Lately, I've been catching my once-doubting spouse start to mention the "oil problem" to her friends every now and then. Something has penetrated. We may have a miracle conversion in the making here. Maybe it's the current gasoline prices and the dawning realization that we can't keep going this way. But something is penetrating.
Maybe I won't need to see a shrink after all.
Maybe I'm not the one who is "crazy".
Maybe I'm depressingly sane.
Maybe life is just a bitchslap.
Always a battle between what you think you see coming, and what actions you take in response. As we've all said before, there are big risks in both under and over reacting.
Everything from one's notion of right and wrong, their model of the world, their idea of the future, their own identity, etc. is shaped by what I call their "tribal affliations."
In the environment in which we evoloved, your tribal affliations were incredibly important to your survival. Thus the human brain evolved to delete, deny, or downplay anything that threatend them.
Here in the states, most of are affliated with the "technology and progress is good, the future will be better than the present" tribe.
The feeling of "disorientation" results from having your tribal affliations threatened, more so than being nervous about your future economic prospects.
Best,
Matt
I think this is compounded when you have a family to consider. I certainly want my kids' futures to be as good as or better than the current state, so the notion that there may/will be a major economic/societal/political reversal is a practically inescapable depressant. Other future-shaping Big Issues like GW compound this.
My shrink was mildly helpful, but the thing that put real closure to my "depression phase" was my decision to do everything I could to prepare my family. These include a range of things-- stuff like buy a hybrid; bike & walk whenever possible; join a local farm's CSA; educate the kids on food, gardening, reuse/renew/recycle, and where things come from; get in good physical and mental shape. Many other things too, but none of them rocket science-- this is really all just common sense. It's a lifestyle adjustment that feels good, and as I've said before I haven't made any changes that I would regret even if the S doesn't HTF.
Also, my attitude toward many things has of course shifted. What once seemed normal now seems absurd. This is sometimes a source of tension with the spouse, but I try to be as patient as possible.
Is this a break from the "tribal affiliation," as you call it? Maybe. I think it probably is and will be a pretty common path for a lot of people.
In my experience, most people report that action is the antedote to their peak oil related depression. This gels with my belief that happiness/joy is evolution's carrot. Fear exists to keep you safe when you're threatened. Depression exists to shut you down when you're wasting your energy/time. Happiness exists to get you moving in the correct direction.
When the "genetic-subconscious axis" senses that you are doing something that will improve your chances of survival/personal EROEI, it releases the dopamine to get you to do it again.
Best,
Matt
Which, of course, is not a tribe or anything like one. I agree that tribal affiliation is now and will increasingly be of great importance. Race is like spades (the suit) in spades (the card game): always trump. The fundamental lie of 20th century liberal thought was that race is unreal or unimportant. If you believe this lie, actually believe it (as opposed to bullying or lying to other people to make them act as though it were true), then it isn't hard to guess which race you in fact belong to. Wake up, ma cherie sheeple.
I believe race should be unimportant and that it's unfortunate that it still has the weight it does. There is hope, since it's a cultural construct (we don't talk about the Irish Race so much nowadays, do we?)
So, which race do I "in fact belong to"?
Your words hit so true on the mark.
I had to "drive" one of my kids to the doctor this morning and then had to "drive" to the pharmacy to pick the quickly needed medicine. Without aid of a car, my kid would be up infection canal without a paddle.
While driving, I observed store after store on the avenue devoted to our car-centered tribal way of life: Joe's Auto Body Fixit Shop, Roy's Drive-through Restaurant, Guss's Gas Station, and so on. Meanwhile all around me, other folk were hurrying inside their personalized transport robots going from here to there while yakking on their cell phones (we can do that in California). There were dozens of delivery trucks and service trucks whizzing back and forth. My gosh what would all these people do if the gasoline stopped flowing tomorrow? I think 99% of them are oblivious to the impending disaster.
But my main point is this. The Doctor's livelihood depends on my driving to his office. The pharamacist's livelihood depends on my driving to his store and also on the delivery trucks bringing in fresh stock every week. Pretty much every service person we depend on and every retailer we depend on has a counterpart dependance on us, the customers being able to get to them by car and for fresh supplies to be trucked to them.
The next time you are driving down Main Street, think about how every business on that boulevard depends on the automobile for bringing customers and supplies to them. It's a shocker. We are fish swimming in an ocean of fossil fuel dependency to the point where we cannot see it any quicker than a real fish sees the water.
(And of course what good would all those billboard ads be if no one is driving by to look at them? Just some random thoughts from the boulevard.)
In your professional opinion, do you think Peak Oil can lead to families splitting up (i.e divorces) as one spouse goes permaculture route and the other toward high tech solutions?
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Exactly, hence the anguish. It becomes very difficult to reconcile your new found knowledge with your lifelong tribal affliations. But what is one to do, realistically speaking? Where else are you going to go and who else are you going to affliate yourself with when most everyone around you is fully invested (emotionally, financially, etc) in a "business as usual" (BAU) scneario?
Sure, I suppose some folks could join an eco-village or something along those lines but (assumming that is even a wise choice) if your lifelong tribal affliations lay squarely with people who are invested in BAU how successful is such an endeavor likely to be?
Best,
Matt
But from what I've learned and experienced, the root of our conceptions and illusions come from our parents (the most direct genetical link anyway). From the moment we're born we have to make sure our parents love and accept us in order to survive. But since they'r also people, with their own parents, they only do so if we behave the way they want (and still, they did the best they could).
If dad says you can't love your mother, because he already does (or whatever, Oedipus has many faces) - this brings a major conflict to our little, open and fragile childrens' heart. These hearts know all about love, but nothing about conditional love. So hence we flex it, deceive ourselves, tighten it with muscles and become angry for the rest of our lives - projecting this anger and frustration on anyone who even faintly echoes mam's or dad's voices from the early days of our lives.
This third and last year of my "personal development" training only addressed my (our) relationship with mom and dad, and my manouvring in this triangle. Very, very unsettling and simply heart breaking to be confronted with the behaviour and neurotics I've apparantly build on this. Everybody in my group has been hopelessly lost in the sight of this (and got the opportunity to correct these things - rocketing them into authenticy afterward)
My major PO bitchslap (an almost nonstop 3 days & nights of reading, clicking, breathing, puking and crying) happened about 3 months ago. I can rattle about the details in lenght, but it fully fitted in my process of accepting my mother and opening for the sorrow of abuse and surpressed female love. I've always had a good relationship with my parents, enjoyed a happy youth but to the extend earth is like a mother: I still feel good about being in touch with all of that.
I don't have kids, nor a blond hotty to grow 'm in, but the more I respect those who struggle to give their kids all needed to find their place in this world. Goodluck, keep grounded and follow your heart :)
Some folks at the NYC conference said they had seen shrinks also.
I really, really hope they put the talks on the net. I discussed the reason why this is depressing in a way unlike any other topic. I think it has a lot to do with how our brains got wired over the last few million years.
Best,
Matt
I'm always fascinated and entertained by the way in which one's profession/education shapes their thinking.
Note that you are an academic. Note that up top you mentioned something about "aggregating thought", which sounds like a very academic type thing.
Note that while I am not practicing, I did spent 3 years in law school, got my bar card, plus 1 year temping and doing odd jobs. Note that I've taken a decidely more mercenary position at this point.
From a standpoint of inclusive fitness, I think it better you stay where you are currently. If you were to join the Jay Hanson brigade it might interfere with your ability to exploit this for your own benefit in your current environment (the academy).
Put it another way: let's say I have a relative who is a physics professor. He is both comfortable and successful in the professorial niche. If he joins the "middle of the road" brigade he may be able to use this information to get more research grants, author a book that is acceptable to his academic circles, etc. IE, exploit it for his own benefit.
On the other hand, if he joins the Jay Hanson brigade, exploiting it for his own benefit in his niche would be next to impossible. So far as I know, I'm the only person in the brigade who has managed to exploit it. (I'm not sure exactly where Heinberg stands on Jay's writings)
Hope that makes sense. It's the reason I told my sister (a high school english teacher with a masters) not to read anything other than Leeb's most recent book except perhaps the Rainwater/Fortune piece with yours truly's handsome picture in it. Read it and use it to plan your finances but DO NOT and I repeat DO NOT read anything beyond that I told her. In so far as I can tell, there is no benefit to her from understanding beyond that point.
Best,
Matt
Your correct--I cannot encourage newbies enough to study, study, study Dieoff.com, and anything else written by Jay Hanson--He is all over the WWWeb. I am terribly sorry he has withdrawn from the public, but I understand his reasons why, yet his legacy of thought remains for all to read.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Or about people who live in other places, where the planning for dealing with that ongoing energy crisis has been part of the social/political matrix for a generation. Whether that planning is realistic, adequate, whistling in the dark, or simply going through the motions is another debate, but it is truly a fact based one - and yes, I have tried to be as restrained as possible concerning war, because war would certainly cause all of the problems you feel inevitable. But again, that same sort of war was equally likely in the late 1970s - and equally due to Soviet and America oil production peaking, leading to a war in the Gulf (Iraq I was Carter's war, by the way, using Carter era strategies to retain control of the oil, with stealth technology, prepositioned equipment, and cruise missiles.)
Or people who looked around America between 1976 and 1986, and could see the writing on the old historical blackboard? (There is some Bismarck quote about God protecting drunks, fools, and America, but likely even Bismarck couldn't imagine the drunken fools running America in the name of God these days.)
This is one of the reasons I find so much of this debate a problem - what happens when you have considered this issue part of your entire adult life, change where you live to reflect that fact, and try, as much as possible (and very imperfectly), to live morally? (Yes, I find the profit impulse so more often on display here human - earning large amounts of money for listening to Simmons about American NG around 2000-1 seems to be much more part the problem of an attitude about getting something for nothing, but now, we are in Kunstler territory.)
I will admit, one reason to read all of these comments is to get some sort of feel for what will happen to America.
Before peak oil awareness - drive car, flip switches. After peak oil awareness - chop wood, carry water. I don't know whether that will catch on - but it is already a false statement. Most people living in the world today do not drive a car, and I would bet the majority have no switches to flip. And from your persepective, the chop wood part will be false for most people too.
A large number of people (most non-Americans) think climate change much bigger than peak oil - not that the issues aren't connected, but truly, Cat 5 hurricanes hitting the Eastern Seaboard every summer as a regular occurence is much more likely to make an impact on people than oil production at 'only' 40 mbd.
In a way, that peak oil is so important in America, while the rest of the world seems much more concerned about the weather is just another sign of how uniquely Americans live. Most of humanity actually experiences the weather around them, unlike Americans living in their seemingly perfected cocoons. (All of the public schools I attended lacked air conditioning - these days, I would assume that would be worth an instant lawsuit, to keep the students from dying like flies in the unbearable heat.)