Transit
from the album Courier
by Richard Shindell

The merge from the turnpike was murder, but it's never a cinch
It was Friday at five, and no one was giving an inch
They squeezed and the edged and they glared
Half them clearly impaired by rage or exhaustion
The rest were just touchy as hell

Somewhere near Paterson everything slowed to a crawl
The all-news station was thanking someone for the call
It's a van from St. Agnes's choir
There's a nun out there changing a tire
By the time they got by her, tempers were out of control

So they all hit the gas in a dash for position
Bobing and weaving and flashing their highbeams
Fliping the bird and screaming obscenities
A well-insured hoard hell-bent on Saturday

And so they continued west-bound and into the sun
Law and decorum constraining nary a one
By then it was devil-may-care
Not one even vaguely aware
That they had come all the way to the Delaware Water Gap

But how had it happened? They had all missed their exits
How had it happened? Was it some kind of vortex?
And in they all went, bumper to bumper
Faster and faster, no sign of a trooper
In they all went, like sheep to the slaughter
Bankers and carpenters, doctors and lawyers
And in they all went, families in minivans
Ashcroft republicans, weekend militiamen
They followed the river, and rounded the bend
Between minsi and tammany and into their destiny
Lying in ambush right their before them
The angry old sun right on the horizon

Sister Maria tightened the bolts of the spare
She said a quick prayer and put the old van into gear
Thank God that the traffic was light
If she hurried she might not be late
For that evening's performance at the state penetentiary

She entered the common room and their was her choir
Altos and baritones, basses and tenors
Car thieves and crack dealers, mobsters and murderers
Husbands and sons, fathers and brothers
And so it began in glorious harmony
Softly and Tenderly - calling for you and me
With the interstate whining way off in the distance
And the sun going down through the bars of the prison
They poured out their souls, they poured out their memories
They poured out their hopes for what's left of eternity
To sister Maria - her soul like a prism
For the light of forgiveness on all of their faces

(postscript:  The prisoners discussed in the end of the song have lost their freedom....but are the Americans on "the interstate whining in the distance" truly any more free?

Roger Conner  ThatsItImout

17 April 2006
Oil: The Party Is Over
By Gwynne Dyer

        Welcome to the world of $70-per-barrel oil. That's if there is no crisis in the Gulf over Iran's nuclear ambitions.  If there is, then get ready for $140 a barrel. Oil briefly breached the $70 barrier eight months ago, but this time it is going up for good.
...
http://www.gwynnedyer.net/articles/Gwynne%20Dyer%20article_%20%20Oil.txt

As far as my doom timeline for the US, it has already happened.  Political failure, climate catastrophe, economic failure, and energy emergencies have been happening for years.  Yes, the stores are still open, and the utilities still work almost all the time nationwide, but that was true in the "dead state walking" Soviet Union in 1986.  (In fact, the evacuation of Pripyat was quicker, more efficient, and more humane than the evacuation of NOLA despite the complete lack of warning of Chernobyl)  I predict a significant further collapse of US society/economy/political structure circa 2011, with two sigma error bars plus or minus 5 years.  And what I am talking about is >20% unemployment, martial law/anarchy, and food & fuel shortages/rationing.

Recently a local colege, as part of their sustainable campus program and involving students from colleges all over the state and other interested sponsers, organized a conference....

http://www.berea.edu/SENS/CCP/

Here is the overview of the program:

In the face of severe threats to sustainability, college  students, faculty and staff, and townspeople from throughout the region will gather in Berea to share information about how to create more sustainable local communities and how to develop lasting partnerships with each other. Join  us for presentations, tours, workshops, brainstorming, on the following topics:
    *    Solar Energy
    *     Energy Conservation
    *      Biodiesel
    *      Community Gardens
    *      Ecovillages
    *      Green Building
    *     Transportation Alternatives to Cars
    *      Fostering Local Businesses
    *     Developing a Local Food System
    *      Partnering with Local Government
    *     Native Landscaping

Not bad huh?  The college and the young students were proud of their efforts, by accounts I have received the program was well recieved....well for the most part, anyway.  Dont's assume that the "true doom and gloom peakers" were going to let them get away with this however.  Allow me to quote a message from the energy_resources group on a Yahoo group, to get an impression of the rabid tone, when an invitation to the above conference was announced there by some Louisville sponser/participants:

Don't waste your time or money.
It's feel good environmentalism run amok.

• The oxymoronic "sustainable growth" view is everywhere.

• On energy, nothing on net energy; is manufactured energy a better
  

• Nothing dealing carrying capacity.

• No mention U.S. population and growth and its impacts.

And so it goes.  I am attempting to ask people allied to this cause to please consider carefully the impression you leave behind when dismissing each and every initiative or alternative that anyone proposes as undoable, not worth doing and in fact that the person trying to initiate alternatives is nothing more that a schill for corporate/industrial entities. It runs the risk of making the folks who are so called "Peak Aware" come across as nothing more than a nutbar apocalyptic cult.  We should be thankful that college age students are at least participating in these efforts.  To dismiss them so rudely and completely because the whole agenda did not center around a return to horse and buggy and reduction of two thirds of the world's people does no good in earning the next generation over to the cause of attempting to help the world in it's efforts to survive and retain civility and culture in what will, in the end, be their world.

(by the way, to all of those posters who are fixated on the population issue as the ONLY issue that matters, I have good news for you!  It is the one that you can take direct, immediate action on!  Just go ahead and shoot yourself!)

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout

The research and tests on synthetic fuel would ultimately produce a common fuel for the entire military, Air Force officials said.

The initial contract for unconventional fuel for the tests will be signed with Syntroleum Corporation of Tulsa, Okla., which has provided synthetic fuel for testing by the Departments of Energy, Transportation and Defense since 1998.

Syntroleum can produce 42 gallons of synthetic fuel from 10,000 cubic feet of natural gas. The raw materials cost about $70.

If the military moves ahead with using the synthetic fuels, the Syntroleum technology could be used by factories elsewhere to produce the same 42 gallons of fuel from just $10 worth of coal, Mr. Holmes said.

And they've also testing coal to liquids (CTL) processed fuel.

Excerpt:

Venezuela's oil production continues to decrease, for multiple reasons, mostly political, while the country is swimming in heavy oil that few are interested in counting, or in taking huge risks to go harvest, due again, mostly to political risks.

The Chavez government continues to subsidize the energy needs of countries like Cuba, and Bolivia, among others, for political reasons.

Somewhere along the way, something will have to give.

The laws of the business Universe are clear. Entities can't continue to antagonize customers, run questionable accounting, and continually subsidize inefficient operations indefinitely.

Many businesses fail when they do one of those three things continuously. PDVSA seems to be doing them routinely, and has been doing them for a long time.

The results have been decreased production, significantly damaged infrastructure, and a great deal of mistrust from the global oil industry, and likely international lending operations.

If Venezuela needs $20 billion to fix, its mostly self inflicted oil infrastructure, no one that we know of, has stepped up to the plate as a potential lender, yet.

Meanwhile, Mr. Chavez has been floating the idea that he will conduct a referendum to see if voters want to keep in office until 2031.

With gasoline at 12 cents a gallon, the big question for Venezuela drivers might just be, when do we start?

For the world's oil supply, though, the real question is how long can this kind of policy go on?

For the record, Venezuela's gasoline price has historically been subsidized. Attempts to raise prices toward market rates have met with significant amounts of social unrest.

If and when Chavez and PDVSA are squeezed enough to have to raise prices, life in Caracas could get oh so interesting.

Oil Executive (Re: Russian Oil Production):  "What could be wrung from the older fields has been tapped"

What I found interesting in the article was the statement by an executive VP with the TNK-BP Joint Venture, Kris Sliger, "What could be wrung from the older fields has been tapped."  

The Russian Energy Minister previously warned of the possibility of a "real collapse in oil production," (if they don't launch an immediate frontier exploration program).

Khebab and I have been working on another paper.  Above is a link to the graphs (all done by Khebab).   Unfortunately, the technical half of our team (and 90% of the IQ, i.e., Khebab) has left town for three weeks.  I have gone ahead and published the graphs.  I'll try to get the text out in the next couple of days, but my premise is quite simple.  Saudi Arabia and the world are now where Texas and the Lower 48 were at in 1972 and 1970, respectively.  The Texas numbers are crude + condensate.  The other numbers are believed to be total liquids.

For an explanation of what Stuart Staniford has designated as "Hubbert Linearization" see any of the excellent articles on TOD by Stuart.  

There have only been two swing producers of any consequence, Texas and Saudi Arabia.  The new "swing producer" consists of releases from emergency reserves.  Note that the problem is replenishing the reserves (which Bush has already postponed).

http://weeklyradioaddress.com/WRA20060429.htm