Here's a little excerpt from the transcript of the show...
BECK: Matthew, you know, I really think that we are always -- you always hear we`re 15 years away from flying cars that could be powered on SPAM.
SIMMONS: Well, that might be the case. We`re right in the middle now of the beginning of a crisis.
BECK: Right. In the beginning of the crisis. If -- if we really wanted to solve this, don`t you think we could have solved this long ago?
SIMMONS: No, I don`t.
BECK: OK. All right. Well, enough said. There you go. Why do you say that?
SIMMONS: Well, this is a physics thing. And what we`re going to have to do is learn how to use less, as opposed to invent more.
BECK: Yes. Really not going to happen. Not going to happen.
SIMMONS: We`re going to have to.
BECK: No, I`m going to let my kids worry about it. Me, I`m buying a bigger car. Matthew, thanks a lot.
SIMMONS: You`re welcome.
BECK: All right. If you listen to me on the radio, you know I really am one of these guys who`s always prepared way in advance for any crackpot doomsday scenario. I had a safe room, you know, years before nothing happened on Y2K.
I really have a Tamiflu prescription, written in 2003. I`ve had my basement stocked with food and water for -- all right. All right, I get it. Food and water stacked in my basement before, you know, nothing happened on 6-6-06.
So it only stands to reason that I`m going to be the first guy to prepare for this, you know, inevitable oil crisis. But you know, if you`re going to do that, I have to pick another energy to use, and do research and stuff. And I mean it, I am the laziest guy you will ever meet.
Beck actually ticked me off a bit with the ending statements where he jokes and said "No, I'm going to let my kids worry about it." I know that he was kidding but he's sending the wrong message to the public.
I saw the Simmons interview, too. There is an old saw that there is no such thing as bad publicity. And this is undoubtedly true, because anyone who is interested was directed to "Twilight in the Desert". Beck came across as a fat headed fool, and Simmons as someone who has a real point of view about fossil fuels. Beck even called himself a "conservative",bringing credo to my belief that anyone that tells you how honest they are, how Christian or how conservative does so because its not evident from their behaviour. And I believe that action rather than talk is a much more true guage of a person.
You were just ticked off a bit? Thanks for watching that ass so I don't have to. Is this what passes for serious debate on CNN now? Shame on CNN for having such an ass hog up our airwaves.
I was actually flipping channels on the CNNs and saw Simmons sitting there (I've read twilight, so I wanted to see what he had to say) And after the brief dialog Beck cuts him off and says screw the world I'm buying a big car... So to me, yes Simmons did get his word out about the book; However, I personally felt Beck was pi**ing on him a bit with those final remarks... and that "final stab" is what ticked me off, fearing many in the public would shrug off concerns (if any) they had about the issue.
CNN has been turning more into Fox every day. Good for ratings. This tide is turning, though, the right-wingers are going to get very unhappy as all their idiotic beliefs collapse with everything else. Before the collapse, we're going GREEEEEEEEEN.
GORE: Well, I've seen a number of -- over the last several decades I've seen this happen several times, where they spike and then they do come back down.
But each time they go to a higher plateau. We almost certainly are at or near what they call peak oil, defined as having recovered a majority of the oil reserves at a certain price, affordability range. And so with the new pressure on the consumption side from China and India, if they come back down, they won't stay down long.
KING: What do you drive?
GORE: I drive a hybrid. Tipper and I got a Lexus hybrid. And we have a couple of Priuses in the family with our children. And I encourage people to make environmentally-conscious choices because we all have to solve this climate crisis.
I just posted this over on Stuart's BP Thread as well
This is an e-mail I sent out regarding my first Beck expereience a couple of days earlier:
"I don't watch (consume) much MSM anymore. But last night, oddly, the satellite was 'out' for the two channels I do watch - FSTV and LINK - while it was working for others, including PBS and CNN. (big brother, anyone?) So I watched the end of the PBS news talking about the assassination of Zarqawi. Nothing illuminating. But then there was a several-minute self promo for PBS. Images of women, children, college students, earnest young men... soothing music in the background...text showing poll data to the effect of PBS/Newshour being "the most trusted source of news". I was almost lulled to sleep, it was working, I was being indoctrinated, trust us... trust us... it'll all be OK... trust us... It was just too creepy. I honestly felt like I was being set up for THE BIG LIE.
Then I switched over to CNN Headline news - just for a peek, just for a moment. There was a guy on - Glenn Beck - with what I can only describe as a Letterman-like take on the news. He asked rhetorically if Americans celebrating the death of Zarqawi were the same as Palestinians dancing in the streets on 9/11 (which assumes that any really did that - unstaged, that is). He proceeded to answer his question by stating unequivocally that no, it's not the same, because "we just got a real bad guy'. He made mocking comments about Zarqawi not being greeted in heaven by virgins but rather being faced with some demeaning fate that was meant to be humor but that was just disgusting and that I've blocked out. Then - and I really can't believe this - he cut to his lackey on the streets of Manhattan (again, this was CNN at 7 pm and seemed really, really, like the most distasteful of late night 'comedy') who had a pork-pie or bacon cake to mock Islam with lettering along the lines of "Happy Zarqawi Death Day". He was to go do some "man in the street interviews". I'd seen (way more than) enough, and turned it off at that point.
My point is that this is what's now accepted by this society. Celebrating death. Mocking religion. (not that I'm any fan of religion). But juvenile, immature, sophomoric, imbecilic - we don't even have words ( or at least I don't know them) for the depths to which we have sunk. And to quote James Earl Jones - This is CNN. Pardon my language but WTF is going on that we accept this!?! We pay for it. We condone it. We support it (if only by our silence). We're making enemies and things worse and fools of ourselves every time our culture opens its collective mouth. Please excuse me while I go throw up."
being "the most trusted source of news".
I was almost lulled to sleep,
it was working,
I was being indoctrinated,
trust us... trust us... it'll all be OK... trust us...
What you heard & saw was the inevitable outcome of the Invisible Hand guiding our news professionals ever so gently down that slippery slope from being "professional and trustable reporters of facts" to be becoming the pandering clowns of commercialism and infotainment.
Competition always causes us to be the best that we can be.
The best clowns and money licking fools.
Picture Congressmen on their knees, crawling after and licking the behinds of lobbyists --they're addicted to campaign contributions.
Picture Newsmen on their knees, crawling after & licking the behinds of advertisers --they're addicted to commercial contributions.
Picture us licking our TV tubes --we're addicted to crap.
Petrologistics is apparently a controversial "oil spying" organization. Critiqued by Simmons, but others believe the networks of oil spooks exist. The news release is on the Wall Street Journal online Dow Jones Newswires section under "Energy Industry".
The same article has the following quote "Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal published last week, said the country's April output averaged 9.1 million b/d, its lowest level since January 2005."
Further quotes from article about Petrologistics head Conrad Gerber:
Gerber said Iran was also continuing to limit its supplies so as not to be forced to sell its oil at a steeper discount, and in May produced 3.85 million b/d.
"The Iranians don't want to discount their crude and they're hoping that the differentials will go up if they withhold some of it," he said.
Iran currently has around 16 million barrels of its crude stored on its own fleet of oil tankers rather than lower the price on the international market, Gerber added.
"They're running out of storage and can't continue to do this for much longer and could be forced to shut the fields in," he said
So this is 4 days of Iranian oil or $1.1B of oil. Could they have been trying to play a game with the international nuclear negotitions? If true, will they shut oil in? Will there be a "breakthru" on the negotiations? Boy, this is entertaining...why does anyone needs "reality" shows???
For real, news is more entertaining these days. Look at oil over there to the right... dropping...dropping...thunk... all we need is a few more near miss TS/Hurricanes in the GOM and oil will be down around $40/barrel! (poking at some news articles saying price of oil has dropped due to the TS going away from GOM rigs/refineries)
Looks more like Wallstreet has decided we are headed for high interest rates and a stagnant/shrinking economy. Gold prices, the stock market and oil all collapsing at once.
I forget. Which president was it who declared that white house staffers weren't allowed to say the word recession? Bush 1? They had to use the word "bannana" instead.
My point exactly... I wouldn't blame it on TS either. I was merely pointing out the fact that some [cough] journalist try to correlate events without much thought.
Ahh Recession, yes... take a look down below as I'm really having a hard time selling my home (the bubble has a big hole in it IMO, it will within 6-12 months pop loudly)
Oil spooks! OMG what do they report? Shhhhh! Hey GWB... these people think we are at peak just LIKE THE FUCKING HIRSCH REPORT....Holy shit! call the CIA, FBI, and the secret service. Time for a meeting!! We need to spend billions watching people talk about what we just spent millions having someone prepare a report about. We better infiltrate these renagades and hope that they don't think what we think is possibly going to happen, could happen...
I think you will draw more attention by being a gay wanting to get married with this bunch (unfortunatly).
In case that sounded harsh, I don't doubt that they are watching. What the hell for who knows. I only hope that they read the hirsch report and fall asleep watching it get rehashed a million different ways on TOD. If I had thier job I would shoot myself.
The IEA is saying that we hit 85 mbpd in May: http://omrpublic.iea.org/
"World oil supply rose by 445 kb/d in May to 85.0 mb/d, fuelled by increases from OPEC, a lull in North Sea maintenance and recovering US GOM supply. "
World oil supply rose by 445 kb/d in May to 85.0 mb/d, fuelled by increases from OPEC, a lull in North Sea maintenance and recovering US GOM supply. A higher 2005 baseline contributes to weaker non-OPEC supply growth of 1.1 mb/d (plus 265 kb/d of OPEC NGLs) in 2006, down from 1.2 mb/d last month.
How about that, 85 MBD soon we'll hit 120 MBD right? :-/
That means the April figures has been revised downward by 545 kb/d. Yes, they are admitting they were off, on the high side, by over half a million barrels per day for their April estimate. They are usually off and as of the last couple of years they have usually been off on the high side. I wonder why this is and I also wonder how much they will be off in their May estimate?
Let's see if it holds up. As Smekhovo said at the end of the last DrumBeat:
IEA have made a huge 550kb downward revision, easily the biggest in recent times, to their April supply figure, and gone straight on without missing a beat to claim a 450kb increase for May supply.
I'm going to argue, that in the short run, these reported numbers and their revisions aren't that important. Producers are basically producing supply to meet demand. How do we know this? With all the talk of Nigerian production losses, decreased Saudi production, and both the EIA and IEA reports of the last week, the price of oil has been flat to slightly falling.
Producers are basically producing supply to meet demand. How do we know this? With all the talk of Nigerian production losses, decreased Saudi production, and both the EIA and IEA reports of the last week, the price of oil has been flat to slightly falling.
Not only that, but crude inventories remain steady at record high levels. There is no great incentive to produce much more oil as long as inventories are in this condition. If crude inventories start to fall, and you don't see production pick up, then someone can make the argument that production can't keep up and we have at the least a logistical peak.
I think the situation is clearly ambiguous. Prices are near record highs and not really falling (perhaps easing down), as they should in oversupply, but stocks are indeed high and sufficient. Days on hand of oil is steady but not growing at the moment. Production is almost exactly the same as last year (within error bars) these last couple mos, but world demand theoretically grew maybe 1.5 mbpd. We are still largely riding the stocks jump related to the warm winter (US oil stocks since Jan have only followed, not exceeded the average seasonal trend).
I can only say this is a most unusual set of circumstances that should become clearer over the next 6 mos ... maybe?
That means that if the fear subsides that the inventories will be ussed and that the price can drop significantly right? So to keep prices high a constant fear is needed? Doesn't sound to healthy to me. So how to determine the price if there was no fear in the market?
I'm not sure it's fear, per se. We've gone from a demand constrained world to a supply constrained world. It's rational to run higher inventory in a supply constrained world because the cost of business discontinuity may outweigh the increased cost of holding inventory. Only if sufficient excess capacity returns would this condition reverse -- i.e. in a big recession.
I wonder if it's more to do with replacing lost inventory from last August. There is still something like 8-10% shut in down in the GOM. So if it's taken over 6 mos and we still aren't back at capacity, I could see many refiners or producers building up stocks to plan for this to happen again. We are in the hurricane season and it will only take one to liquidate those inventories. At least IMHO.
The current situation tells us nothing about whether we are at peak or not. What it I believe that it tells us is that demand destruction due to increased prices has increased to sufficient levels that the producers are now trying to walk a tightrope at the highest price they can manage with the correspondingly highest production. Will demand rise at $60 per barrel enough to ensure the same level of profits as current demand at $70 per barrel? What demand do I need at $40 per barrel to get this level of profit? If I push prices to $80 (via deliberate market manipulation) do I lose profit because demand destruction or gain? What I think I see happening here is that producers believe they are close to a "sweet spot" in demand and what they can supply in terms of maximizing profits and that they want to maintain this sweet spot as long as possible, regardless of whether we are at peak, past peak, or before peak.
I think that's the last thing they want to do. I think most people in the oil business are nervous about the high inventories, and unwilling to precipitate any move that might start a downhill slide back to $50 oil. Besides that, as long as refining is a bottleneck, discounting crude won't help any. Refiners could discount gasoline, but they are already struggling to keep up.
Matthew Simmons on Glenn Beck Show - CNN, Last night
Here's a little excerpt from the transcript of the show...
Beck actually ticked me off a bit with the ending statements where he jokes and said "No, I'm going to let my kids worry about it." I know that he was kidding but he's sending the wrong message to the public.
My $.02
-C.
In reply, Gore gave a one sentence explanation of peak oil.
I almost fell off my chair. I can't wait to see the transcript!
I just posted this over on Stuart's BP Thread as well
"I don't watch (consume) much MSM anymore. But last night, oddly, the satellite was 'out' for the two channels I do watch - FSTV and LINK - while it was working for others, including PBS and CNN. (big brother, anyone?) So I watched the end of the PBS news talking about the assassination of Zarqawi. Nothing illuminating. But then there was a several-minute self promo for PBS. Images of women, children, college students, earnest young men... soothing music in the background...text showing poll data to the effect of PBS/Newshour being "the most trusted source of news". I was almost lulled to sleep, it was working, I was being indoctrinated, trust us... trust us... it'll all be OK... trust us... It was just too creepy. I honestly felt like I was being set up for THE BIG LIE.
Then I switched over to CNN Headline news - just for a peek, just for a moment. There was a guy on - Glenn Beck - with what I can only describe as a Letterman-like take on the news. He asked rhetorically if Americans celebrating the death of Zarqawi were the same as Palestinians dancing in the streets on 9/11 (which assumes that any really did that - unstaged, that is). He proceeded to answer his question by stating unequivocally that no, it's not the same, because "we just got a real bad guy'. He made mocking comments about Zarqawi not being greeted in heaven by virgins but rather being faced with some demeaning fate that was meant to be humor but that was just disgusting and that I've blocked out. Then - and I really can't believe this - he cut to his lackey on the streets of Manhattan (again, this was CNN at 7 pm and seemed really, really, like the most distasteful of late night 'comedy') who had a pork-pie or bacon cake to mock Islam with lettering along the lines of "Happy Zarqawi Death Day". He was to go do some "man in the street interviews". I'd seen (way more than) enough, and turned it off at that point.
My point is that this is what's now accepted by this society. Celebrating death. Mocking religion. (not that I'm any fan of religion). But juvenile, immature, sophomoric, imbecilic - we don't even have words ( or at least I don't know them) for the depths to which we have sunk. And to quote James Earl Jones - This is CNN. Pardon my language but WTF is going on that we accept this!?! We pay for it. We condone it. We support it (if only by our silence). We're making enemies and things worse and fools of ourselves every time our culture opens its collective mouth. Please excuse me while I go throw up."
What you heard & saw was the inevitable outcome of the Invisible Hand guiding our news professionals ever so gently down that slippery slope from being "professional and trustable reporters of facts" to be becoming the pandering clowns of commercialism and infotainment.
Competition always causes us to be the best that we can be.
The best clowns and money licking fools.
Picture Congressmen on their knees, crawling after and licking the behinds of lobbyists --they're addicted to campaign contributions.
Picture Newsmen on their knees, crawling after & licking the behinds of advertisers --they're addicted to commercial contributions.
Picture us licking our TV tubes --we're addicted to crap.
Where did these numbers come from? 9 MBD, IEA says 9.35, EIA I think says 9.2... somewhere else I've heard it's less... why the disparity in numbers?
-C.
The same article has the following quote "Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal published last week, said the country's April output averaged 9.1 million b/d, its lowest level since January 2005."
-C.
Looks more like Wallstreet has decided we are headed for high interest rates and a stagnant/shrinking economy. Gold prices, the stock market and oil all collapsing at once.
I forget. Which president was it who declared that white house staffers weren't allowed to say the word recession? Bush 1? They had to use the word "bannana" instead.
Ahh Recession, yes... take a look down below as I'm really having a hard time selling my home (the bubble has a big hole in it IMO, it will within 6-12 months pop loudly)
I think you will draw more attention by being a gay wanting to get married with this bunch (unfortunatly).
Really? 9.35 mbd?
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
"World oil supply rose by 445 kb/d in May to 85.0 mb/d, fuelled by increases from OPEC, a lull in North Sea maintenance and recovering US GOM supply. "
it was in the article I posted above as well...
How about that, 85 MBD soon we'll hit 120 MBD right? :-/
http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12may06high.pdf
That means the April figures has been revised downward by 545 kb/d. Yes, they are admitting they were off, on the high side, by over half a million barrels per day for their April estimate. They are usually off and as of the last couple of years they have usually been off on the high side. I wonder why this is and I also wonder how much they will be off in their May estimate?
Not only that, but crude inventories remain steady at record high levels. There is no great incentive to produce much more oil as long as inventories are in this condition. If crude inventories start to fall, and you don't see production pick up, then someone can make the argument that production can't keep up and we have at the least a logistical peak.
RR
I can only say this is a most unusual set of circumstances that should become clearer over the next 6 mos ... maybe?
Lots of people in poorer countries of the world would be happy to oblige them
RR