DrumBeat: July 3, 2006
Posted by threadbot on July 3, 2006 - 9:35am
Russian oil output recovered from a deep winter slump and reached 9.69 million barrels per day in June to exceed the previous post-Soviet high of December 2005, the energy ministry said on Monday.June production was 2.7 percent higher than in June 2005, in line with forecasts from the government and analysts.
BP oil and gas production falls 2.5% in Q2
BP Plc (BP.L) expects its oil and gas production to have fallen 2.5 percent in the second quarter -- more than some analysts had expected -- raising the challenge the oil giant faces in meeting growth plans.
Myanmar, one of the world's poorest nations, is under a series of US and European economic sanctions imposed over the junta's human rights abuses and the house arrest of 61-year-old democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.But their effect has been weakened because neighboring China, India and Thailand are spending billions of dollars for a share of Myanmar's vast energy resources to solve their fuel problems at home.
Malaysia Suspends Biodiesel Effort over concerns that palm oil needed for food will be turned into fuel.
The Dehcho Indians take A Stand in the Forest.
For three decades, the Dehcho have been resisting the $7-billion project, which is backed by other native groups in the Northwest Territories. But the Dehcho are under mounting pressure to drop their opposition to a project that would serve North American energy markets as the United States strives to reduce dependence on the Middle East. Canada is already the largest foreign supplier of natural gas to the U.S.The companies that want to build the underground pipeline — Imperial Oil, Shell Canada, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil Canada — estimate that it would carry 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas per day, which industry experts say is enough annually to heat more than 3 million homes for a year.
Republican Rep. Dan Lungren of California has a solution to the energy crisis: a $1-billion prize for the first American automaker to sell 60,000 midsized sedans that could travel 100 miles on one gallon of gasoline.
1920 treaty holds key to Arctic energy riches
Lawyers, experts and diplomats agree north Barents Sea oil and fishing rights are developing into a diplomatic flashpoint. They also agree that there is no clear answer.Gas companies on 'treadmill' of demand
In Nigeria, Consumers protest power outage.
More on the Interstate system: With so many vehicles using it, America's interstate highway system is overworked.
Aging infrastructure The system is also getting old. "We are at the end of the useful life of the lot of the freeway that was built in the late '50s and early '60s," Vieth said. "In the next 10 to 20 years, there is a tremendous amount of work that will have to be done to keep the Interstates as a valuable part of the system."
Green fears grow as Britons binge on gadgets
Two scientists warn of The False Hope of Biofuels.
Update [2006-7-3 9:59:33 by Leanan]: This may have been posted before, but what the heck, it's worth another mention. BeyondPeak.org has the MP3s of May's Peak Oil and the Environment conference posted. My favorite is Joseph Tainter's Energy Gain & Social Organization, of course. He thinks our political dysfunction is setting us up for "catastrophic change" rather than a smooth transition.
Update [2006-7-3 12:21:34 by Leanan]: Extreme Commuting Going Global
More Americans than ever are willing to trade time in their car for the dream of a big house and a big yard. Nearly 10 million people now drive more than an hour to work, up 50 percent from 1990. Many are doing what California real-estate agents call "driving 'til you qualify" for a mortgage. In places like southern California, each exit along the interstate saves you tens of thousands of dollars....And what's happening in the United States is a harbinger for the world. The long commute is now cementing itself in Europe and spreading from Japan to the rest of Asia as well. Indeed, University of California Urban Planning professor Michael Woo says that Chinese commuters travel as far and spend as much time in cars as Californians—more than an hour a day. And American commerce is right on their tail: McDonald's opened its first drive-through window in China last December, and plans to open hundreds more.
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I'll look at that one again.
Perhaps you've read these, if not, worth some time.
Elizabeth Kolbert's "Fieldnotes from a Catastrophe" good review of gloabal warming science.
"Cobra II" about the war in Iraq.
"1491" about the state of the New World at European contact.
http://www.npr.org/search.php?text=thunderbird
Thanks, Oil CEO.
And if you want some good news, "Good News for A Change" by David Suzuki and Holly Dressel is v. good.
The 1950's science fiction you so miss is now published in the form of graphic novels Try The Invisibles series from Grant Morison. Anything Grant Morrison. V for Vendetta from Alan Moore. The Transmetropolitan series from Warren Ellis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guns_germs_and_steel
(a Pulitzer Prize-winning book)
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed
Probable the two best books I have every read.
Mind blowing is a good description of both.
The author (Jared Mason Diamond) is no lightweight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond
I'm not easily impressed, but they are impressive works.
With this kind of information available, if our civilization falls, it our own damn fault.
Ever checked out Karen Armstrong's 'The Battle for God'? It covers about 500yrs of the changes in Judaism, Christianity and Islam, and how the fundamentalist movements in each have developed into what we see today. Pretty useful, sober perspective on this often overstated subject.
http://www.alphabetvsgoddess.com/
I recommend :
Conversations with an Archdruid
Curve of the binding energy.
Basin and Range
Other - Walden's Pond
Tom Brown's - The Tracker, The Search
Start with that. Highly recommended. Totally relevant to our discussions recently about nukes and oil-shale. Going to dig my copy out of the basement right now. Thanks.
I wanted to put in a quote here, but like all my best books it's out on loan. Taylor speculates on a scenario where the bomb goes off between the towers and they end up essentially intact but leaning against each other. Creepy.
BTW the stored energy of the fuel load (not the kinetic energy) of the two WTC aircraft combined was of the close order of one kiloton. Obviously it was a lot less than 1000 tons mass, but 1 kilo of Jet-A1 burned in air releases about six times the energy you get from 1 kilo of TNT. This is because a high explosive carries its oxidizer around with it (in a handwaving sense) while the jet fuel gets its oxygen for free.
The book was published in the late 70s. It really gave me the chills to read it in 2005.
McPhee has a book coming out later this year about the cargo transportation systems of the USA. It is called "Uncommon Carriers", essentially an anthology of articles he has published in the New Yorker over the past few years. The chapter on the Wyoming coal railways is superb - makes you realize the sheer scale of what we're discussing here.
OK. I'm heading towards the basement.
After you finish rereading "Curve of Binding Energy" and trying to make the wheelbarrow bomb in your garage, go back to McPhee's "Basin and Range," which has some of the best writing in it that he ever did.
cfm
The facts of 21st Century life are very simple.
The world is divided into three power blocs, mutually
dependent, mutually indispensable.
The Fats produce food.
The Greasies produce oil.
And the Peeps produce people.
This isn't a Soylent Green kinda deal - the members of those blocs are existing nation states (except that Scotland seems to have become independent - there is a reference to "the hardliners in Edinburgh holding out for higher prices" somewhere in the text).
Armageddon breaks out when the Chinese refuse to pull their drilling rigs off the Mid-Atlantic ridge - pretty stupid place to look for oil IMHO but maybe it will be the Spratlys in our own timeline.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1857987896/026-0532679-8436468?v=glance&n=266239
- The Visual Display of Quantitative Information
- Envisioning Information
- Visual Explanation
- Beautiful Evidence
You can order the books from Amazon or Tufte's website, or find them in bookshops in any major college town. IMHO they decline slowly in quality in publishing order, but even the worst is very very good (haven't read the most recent yet). The tone of his more recent books sometimes comes across as being a bit intellectually arrogant.http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/
You should try to make time to attend his one-day seminar if you live in the States and he is passing through your state. Some of the books are thrown in for the ticket price.
The downside of becoming a Tuftean is that you will never again be able to look at a graph or statistical chart without seeing ways in which it could be improved - sorry, present company NOT excepted, though the graphics on ToD are way above the run of what you normally get on the web. Part of the problem is the limitations of MS Excel, of course.
Aren't some of us out there asking to lengthen the peak into a long slow slide instead of a fast drop?
Though he Did Not Mention Peak Oil, he did talk about the reasons we should be worried, and the reasons we should get more proactive. We can't win a race by sitting in our computer chairs watching music videos all day. Sometimes we actually have to get up and walk to the newsstand and chat with our fellow citizens and get them thinking too.
But still 100 miles a gallon and able to be sold in the standards heavy US auto stream, should be an easy one to get going.
As to it all being a "Let us save Detroit while we still can" well, in one light, what is wrong with that if you get them to move in the right direction. I know they are sluggish dino's but getting them to move toward a GOOD goal is better than letting them just die. It might even save you and me some money. Think about if they really fail and we have to bail out the retirement plans for them that will cost far more than 1 billion dollars. The 100 mpg car might even save a few of them from extinction.
So an "American automaker" that manufactures its high mileage cars in Mexico is eligible for the prize but a "foreign" automaker that manufactures its cars in Ohio is not. Why not just call it what it is: a bailout for the Detroit automakers.
As you probably know, plug-in hybrids charge up over night and start out each morning as electric. They can go some distance all-electric before starting their gasoline engine. So if you only go half that distance, and then home again, you are getting "infinity" miles per gallon (and using miles per kilowatt-hour instead).
When anyone quotes a flat MPG for a plug-in hybrid they are making an assumption about the distance covered on your daily drive. Maybe you burn no gas for the first 10 miles, and then X gallons for the next 10 miles ... or 20 ... or 30 ... and then compute an average.
It gets complicated. To really know the typical MPG we're going to have to know the typical daily driving distance for an American. And of course if we aren't typical ourselves ... our results are going to vary.
However, keeping in mind the larger capacity batttery, wouldn't normal hybrid mode also experience greater gas mileage because one could charge it up to a higher level while coasting, breaking, etc?
In addition, of course, if one exceeds a certain speed, one cannot rely on the electric engine alone. This also seems to complicate the determination of mpg.
To further complicate the issue, what happens as one increases the power of the electric motor? Does this hurt mileage because one is drawing energy faster than the battery. Probably so. But isn't this counterbalanced somewhat by the fact that one can use the electric at higher speeds?
Getting a standard that will be meaningful for the typical driver will be even more difficult than with conventional autos.
Those who wish to offer a prize need to very careful in defining their parameters. Otherwise, they might get punked.
That surprised me at first, but then I thought about it ... if you've got a charge, and the choice is to spend gas or electricity ... you'll spend the electricity, to save the gas.
... I'm probably not explaining well.
Same with Civic Hybrid, which I drive.
My understanding of the plug-in Prius is that the computer, which monitors the battery level and adjusts electric use accordingly, is hacked so that it always thinks there is a completely full charge, which of course is often the case if you've just pulled the plug to go for a drive. Therefore, the computer will maximize the use of the electric motor far longer than it normally would with the stock Prius. You still have to practice good hybrid driving technique (pulse & glide, gravity is your friend, etc.) to get the 100+ mpg.
This concept is right on the money, imo. Even if I leave the house with a full battery charge in the morning, which is usually difficult for the reasons you describe, by the time I finish my 20-min commute I usually have less than I started with, especially if I have AC on, etc. A full charge on a larger battery every morning would be very cool.
Plus the larger battery of course.
Incidentally, last weekend on a 65 mile drive on a flat stretch of freeway, with a mild tailwind, I averaged 73 mpg at 60 mph in my Civic Hybrid. Cruising at that speed it's pretty much gas only, with the battery remaining fairly static (neither charging nor discharging). Over the 8000-mile life of the car it has averaged 46.6 mpg, about 40%/60% city/highway.
I think Hybrid technology is still in its infancy. There are great gains to be made in battery and fuel efficiency.
Assuming we don't all die off first :)
Then, everybody gets envious, steals yet another of my great ideas, and the world is saved. Thank you all for being so thievish. And the only reckoning of this contribution of mine to the lovely new world toward which we are going is this little note in that TOD book (excellent idea!), but what the hell do I care, I will be totally recycled by that time.
Alright, maybe I will have to hitchhike once in a while if I don't watch that charge meter. Did it all the time in the 40's. Met lots of good people.
An excerpt from the article on Russian oil production:
Russian oil reserves are also becoming depleted and the country needs to tap major new deposits in new areas such as East Siberia to support growth.
State oil firm Rosneft, which controls the former key production unit of YUKOS, Yugansk, continued to show the best annual growth rates as its output rose by 7.4 percent versus June 2005.
But its month-on-month growth of 0.3 percent versus May 2006 was only about a half of the rates seen in the past months.
Rosneft has ramped up production as it is preparing to sell up to $11 billion worth of its stock in London and Moscow in Russia's largest ever IPO in July.
Russia's top oil producer LUKOIL (LKOH.RTS: Quote, Profile, Research) also added 5.2 percent on its annual rates. Its June production also rose by 2.0 percent versus May 2006 due to bigger output at its Siberian Urai unit, the data showed.
LUKOIL had no immediate comment on the month-on-month rise, which was exceptionally strong, given that Urai's production was flat or grew only modestly in past years.
"It seems that LUKOIL has added Marathon's (MRO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) production to Urai's figures. So the organic growth should be much smaller at around 0.5 percent," said Vladislav Metnyov from Troika Dialog brokerage.
A significant decline in Russian production, however, is in my opinion extremely unlikely.
Summary of Archived Essays
I should be writing new material by the middle of next week. Have a safe 4th everyone.
Cheers,
RR
How about a compilation of the twenty most popular posts (and an edited selection of comments to omit the rants)from the past six months published as a trade paperback? With an aggressive publisher, I see no reason why this could not be a best seller for weeks.
This could be a kind of "Anual Editions from TOD" series.
I hereby give anybody to quote my wit and wisdom, along with attribution to "Don Sailorman."
Because I have other projects going, I don't feel like doing this one. Also, I don't need the money, but from what I read some of the commenters here do.
How about a compilation of the twenty most popular posts (and an edited selection of comments to omit the rants)from the past six months published as a trade paperback? With an aggressive publisher, I see no reason why this could not be a best seller for weeks.
Hi Don,
I have been thinking about this for some time. That is just one reason I tend to heavily reference my blog entries. I think I could eventually pull enough material together for a book. I think the first section of my archived essays is a good start to something like "Refuting Ethanol Propaganda for Dummies." I need to work on that title, though. :)
But, if we just sorted through and pulled some of the best material together from The Oil Drum, there is probably already a good book or two there for someone willing to pull it all together.
Cheers,
RR
If you can make the time, I nominate you. Failing that, a number of commenters claim to be writers. We need somebody who has or can get a first-rate agent.
- An inexpensive paperbeck, small pages, black-and-white graphs
- A $12.95 large format (Sort of like Dushkin's "Anual Editions series" aimed at college classes and others who can afford a pricier book with bigger graphs in color and a CD in a plastic pocket which contains the same information so that computerphiles can waste electricity to read the articles--which would then be very handy for accessing Internet links.
Any other ideas out there?Yes, put all of those AAA posts into some form of heavily cross linked Wiki...
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This license gives anyone the express permission to copy this work, to build upon this work, and to reuse this work for commercial purposes. Now given that I suspect the license applies to the entire blog, including comments, I believe that anyone could reuse it to create the suggested book covering the "Best of TOD" articles and comments. Your only requirement would be to give proper attribution to each contributor.
uh, huh, now you see why it is not such a bad idea to sign your work! :-)
Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout
But since others are jumping before our copyright lawyer shows up ... I think you'd have to ask posters for an explicit statement as they create their accounts. I used to track "copyfight" issues a bit, and my understanding is that congress wanted to make it hard for people to "accidently" give up the rights to their work.
IANAL, but I'd say everyone here holds their copyright unless they explicitly state otherwise.
http://www.odograph.com/rights.html
With guitar
Know your rights - all three of them
Number 1
You have the right not to be killed
Murder is a crime!
Unless it was done by a
Policeman or aristocrat
Know your rights
And number 2
You have the right to food money
Providing of course you
Dont mind a little
Investigation, humiliation
And if you cross your fingers
Rehabilitation
Know your rights
These are your rights
Know these rights
Number 3
You have the right to free
Speech as long as you're not
Dumb enough to actually try it.
Know your rights
These are your rights
All three of em
It has been suggested
In some quarters that this is not enough!
Well..............................
- The Clash
from Combat Rock, the second best album of all time, after Exile on Main Street
I would be interested in your take on my case study of Pacific Ethanol:
ETHANOL INVESTING: COUNTERPOINT
Look at the last section, and tell me what you think is wrong with it. Give me your counter-analysis of why PEIX is not overvalued.
Cheers,
RR
Ethanol's Potential as an Oil Replacement
This section is basically the energy return on investment (EROI) argument with the added bonus of the corn crop size argument. Your combined argument is that the raw materials for ethanol will never be as abundant as oil. You don't speculate on the future, you take current methods, ramp them up and note which ones are implausible. I agree that current methods won't scale but new methods will. In its short history, the ethanol industry has a good track record of overcoming technical challenges. Here are some successes:
Total Efficiency
It is great to see you stating that ethanol offers a net energy gain. You use 1.09, I like to use the 1.3 number from this report (Science 27 January 2006: Vol. 311. no. 5760, pp. 506 - 508) but we both agree it is net positive. The report from Science goes on to say that gasoline is slightly negative-this is stunning! The thermal cracking of petroleum to produce gasoline was invented in 1913 and catalytic cracking was invented in 1937 and loads of chemists and engineers have been perfecting the processes ever since. Industrial scale ethanol has only been around since the 1970s and yet it is now more energy efficient than gasoline production.
Corn to ethanol conversion rates
With today's technology, one bushel of corn yields 2.8 gallons of ethanol. And that number is constantly increasing. Just a few years ago, that number was closer to 2.5 gallons per bushel of corn. Now the seed companies like Monsanto are starting to develop ethanol-optimized corn. Look for this area to 'grow'.
Energy Sources
Ethanol plants often use natural gas to power the heating steps but they can use coal, or they can burn one of the co-products, distiller's grains. They can also gasify biomass. In the July 2004 Ethanol Producer Magazine there is an article called Power Switch that says, "A CHP project proposed for the Central Minnesota Ethanol Co-op, a 20-mmgy plant in Little Falls, Minn., is expected to use waste wood chips. Sebesta Blomberg, a Roseville, Minn.-based firm that provides facility management, consulting, engineering and design/build services, is designing a biomass gasification addition to the ethanol plant. The wood chips and VOCs would be burned in a gasifier. This would go through a thermal oxidizer into a boiler, which expels clean air and high-pressure steam. The steam then travels through a turbine that produces process steam for the jet cooker and electricity to run the plant." This plant opened recently and is in operation.
Of course, everyone knows about using a closed-loop plant that burns cow or pig manure.
Enzyme Production
Genencor and NREL worked together for 4 years to achieve an estimated cellulase cost in the range of $0.10-$0.20 per gallon of ethanol in NREL's cost model. This represents an approximate 30-fold improvement in enzyme cost in that model.
Environmental Improvements
An article in the current issue of Ethanol Producer Magazine makes this statement in an article about ICM, a technology provider to the ethanol industry, "This new MEF (minimum environmental footprint) design will use no outside thermal or electrical energy source, such as natural gas or coal; will use no fresh make-up water; will produce no visible plume from the distillers grains dryer or boiler; and will produce only a very minimal level of noise and odor." The US hasn't built an oil refinery in 30 years, but we built over 100 ethanol plants. It is a lot easier, safer, cleaner, more acceptable...
Biomass source
I think I read a couple of posts from you talking about cellulose so no need to go into again but for the benefit of others-why not use grass or willow that don't need fertilizer.
General Comments about this section
I am a molecular biologist by training, and I participated in the sequencing of the human genome. A lot of people said that couldn't be done but now scientists have sequenced the genomes of hundreds of organisms. Biology is racing ahead, and I look at the developing industrial biorefinery industry, and I think the same techniques that worked in health research can be applied to improve enzymes, harness organisms to do work and scale up processes. I understand your scepticism about ethanol, but you can't extrapolate using current methods. Just like someone looking at the first oil well in Pennsylvania in 1859 could not have imagined 2006.
The Brazilian Example
Yeah I agree. Brazil's experience is different than ours.
Ethanol Investing
You asked me to about an analysis of why PEIX is not overvalued. It is overvalued-I sold a while ago.
I didn't find this section persuasive though. Basically, PEIX has not even finished their first plant yet so I don't see what kind of analysis an outsider can do on their business plan. It is too early and there are too many unknowns. You even missed a few of the knowns like the part of their business plan built around selling the wet distiller grains to the million cows in the central valley. The things I do know are quite impressive:
-Good cash flow- $110 million in revenue in 2005 just by marketing other people's ethanol
-Deep pockets- Bill Gates money, bank money etc.
-Experience-They have been distributing ethanol since 1984
-Political connections- The ex-Secretary of State for California is the Chairman and CEO
-Access to ports for overseas shipping (Don't laugh, Japan is interested in ethanol).
-They will have the latest and greatest technology in their plants. Heck, if 30 year old plants are making gobs of money then why can't they with new plants!?
Like I said, it is too early and there are too many unknowns. I just look at what I do know and add in my judgement about the macro trends such as peak oil, geopolitical troubles, greater adoption of ethanol etc. and make an investment decision.
In the interest of full disclosure, I started watching PEIX when it was at about $6. I bought in before Bill Gates, and I made a boat-load of money. It was the second or third best stock I ever owned. God I love this stock. I told people on www.theoildrum.com about this stock in April, I think, and if you invested then, you still would have made a load of money if you sold at the right time. I started selling it as the price was going to ridiculous levels. I no longer own any ethanol stock, but I will get back in after the hype dies down (probably when the driving season ends).
Don't listen to what I said then, listen to what I'm saying now. Trust me. Sure.
No time to address the entire thing, but I will address this. It is simply not true. It is an apples to oranges comparison. I addressed it here:
Energy Balance For Ethanol Better Than For Gasoline?
In addition, a number of people had rebuttal letters published in Science (including TOD's thelastsasquatch) that pointed out the invalid comparison. The authors admitted in their replies that they should have called their metric something else, as it wasn't comparing the EROI of both processes.
Cheers,
RR
Do you see those yellow 'This and That For Dummies' books that have sold God knows how many copies(most of which probably still go unread)? And I think there is another series,"...For Idiots." I'm not making this up.
Think of what an Oil Book with the TOD logo on the cover would sell. And then once it did. A series on every energy topic under the sun. All under the same brand. Sir, we have a mineshaft gap. Mein Fuhrer! I have a plan!
And has that nerd guy.
TOD could easily come up with a TOD series of How To books, like How to really go car-free, how to drastically decrease electricity consumption, etc.
What if we see the following in Mexico: falling oil production; civil unrest as a result of no clear winner in the presidential election; a slumping economy because of the above factors combined with slowing foreign investment. I wonder where millions of unemployed Mexicans may decide to head?
Small events can sometimes have big consequences, e.g., the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and the kidnapping of one Israeli soldier.
Last week, according to media reports, two illegal immigrants (one from Mexico, another from Honduras) admitted to deliberately targeting an 18 year old girl in Central Texas--running her off the road, raping and stabbing her and leaving her for dead. She played dead and crawled and walked a couple of miles before she found help.
Small events are like matches. They can only cause big fires if there is a large supply of fuel. Justified or not, I think that there is an enormous pool of resentment building against illegal immigration into this country.
In any case, before too long I predict that a lot of native born Americans are going to be competing for jobs now taken by illegal immigrants.
In any case, before too long I predict that a lot of native born Americans are going to be competing for jobs now taken by illegal immigrants.
A lot of people seem to think that immigrants (illegal or otherwise) "take jobs" from the locals. This is a great mistake that displays an ignorance of economics.
Every immigrant is both a mouth to feed & a pair of hands to work - just like everyone else is. Any sane economic system would be able to cope with adding one person to both the supply & demand sides of its equation. Taking immigrants out of the economy would destroy as many jobs as it frees up - though the jobs destroyed would mostly be unidentifiable, since they would be the jobs selling the immigrants the things that they buy, or supplying the companies that produce the things that immigrants buy, or providing services to the companies that supply the companies that produce the things that immigrants buy ... .
This is not to say that there wouldn't be a large political outcry, which will get politicians elected &/or laws passed. It just means that, to the extent that the anti-immigrant brigade are concerned about unemployment, they will be shooting themselves in the (collective) foot.
I didn't say that illegal immigrants are taking jobs from locals. If a job offer is made, that job is taken by whomever accepts the job offer. I am predicting that more native born Americans will be competing with illegal immigrants for lower income jobs in the future.
US taxpayers are spending vast sums of money to provide health care, food and other financial support to illegal immigrants and their children. And of course many of their children are US citizens. One can argue that the inexpensive labor more than offsets the cost of the health care and other subsidies. But what happens as the economy starts contracting, especially if we have a new flood of immigrants from Mexico?
I have previously pointed out that younger US workers are going to get hammered from all directions in a post-Peak Oil environment--giant student loans; ferocious job competition; high tax rates to support ever greater numbers of people on welfare(who are often having children at high rates) and high tax rates to support ever greater numbers of people in retirement.
My wife watched a show on imagration. In the past history of the US they are welcome when things are OK, when things are not so good the get the blame.
To all the illegal haters out there I have a story.
I work in Ag. There were 4 of us white people working together when two of them started going off on the mexicans in the local area...There's too many of them, they take our jobs, they are in our schools, etc. One said if they couldn't get the jobs they wouldn't be here.
Finally I asked.
"When was the last time you saw a car load of white people drive up looking for work?
That killed the conversation. BECAUSE IT NEVER HAPPENED IN 21 YEARS.
We raise our pampered beauty queens and sports star children. Hard physical work is below them, both socially and economically.
"If they paid better wages...." BS, It's hard, dirty, sweaty work and white kids don't have to because they can find better work in airconditioned buildings. If you paid $15.00 an hour for picking fruit then some engineer will build a fruit picker and save the farmer a fortune.
A mechanical Blueberry picker cost >$140,000.00. The ammount of waste/ leaves and plant damage still make a greater return than hand picking, gets it done on time, it can't go on stike then your ass is swinging in the wind, and you don't have to listen to a bunch of whinny ass kids all day.
Every job in Ag was never meant IMHO to afford you a 1,800 sq ft home 2 cars and 3 kids while picking strawberries. We are talking about crawling on hot dirt picking fruit. No degree needed here. We were more than happy to heve the mexicans until the economy changed.
A bit of a rant but lets get real about the illegal mexicans, they work hard on crappy jobs and show up. It's a small wonder that they get hired.
Will they get blamed - yes I think they will. Along with Oil Co CEO's ;-)
We're all immigrants, or descended from immigrants (unless you're living in Africa). Most of us quite recently in the U.S. Immigration was a good thing, at least in the short term. Big country, lots of resources, not much population, at least by European standards.
But it clearly cannot go on forever. The petri dish is getting full. We can't keep expanding. Population is going to be the issue of the post-carbon age. And limiting immigration is going to be the easiest way to to limit population.
IOW...things are going to change. There will be white people, black people, Asian people, showing up looking for work. Today's pampered beauty queens and sports stars will be tomorrow's blueberry pickers.
Good thing, because I'd probably be a little more uptight had I not grown up Californian, with all the Hispanic influences ;-)
So I'd say growth is good when you can find it.
(now I'm off to make my breakfast tacos ....)
It's going to be very different in a no-growth or negative-growth environment. Then we'll be facing what Jared Diamond calls "overcrowded lifeboat syndrome."
The U.S. has become a safety valve for the failed policies and results of the Mexican government and arguably, NAFTA, for that matter. To what extent does this safety valve make it less likely that Mexico will do what it is necessary to provide a decent standard of living for its poor? As long as one can export one's problem, what is the incentive to fix it?
My original proposition stands: that the economy can't distinguish between an immigrant and a native-born person (their dollars look & smell just the same in every transaction) and that everyone, immigrant or native-born, is both a pair of hands to work (i.e. a source of supply) & a mouth to feed (i.e. a source of demand). If the economy can't stay in balance after adding one person to each side of its supply & demand equation, what's wrong is the economy, not the person.
This is the overall view. There are, however, some qualifications which need to be added.
The first qualification is that the rate of immigration should not be above the ability of the economy to cope. In particular, the rate of expansion/renovation of economic & social infrastructure necessary to cope with immigration should be within the ability of the economy to generate. In practical terms, new households need housing, water, power & transport. If people are living in tent cities or twenty to a house, it's a problem and the rate of population increase may be a contributing factor.
My reading of US economic history (which admittedly, is not that extensive) indicates to me that the US has coped with considerably higher rates of immigration than today, as a proportion of population rather than absolute numbers, for extended periods of its history. It is certainly the case in Australia, where I live. So, short of a catastrophe in Mexico that causes US immigration to increase to significantly above historic rates as a proportion of population, the qualification regarding the rate of immigration is not likely to be relevant.
The second qualification is that economic balance at the macro level can co-exist with imbalance at the micro level. Just because immigrants create as many jobs as they take, that doesn't mean that nobody finds themselves in a state of increased competition for employment. In particular localities or occupations, immigrants may cause a surplus of labour relative to demand. If the immigrants are particularly concentrated in some localities & some occupations, it is not only possible, but probable. This will be counter-balanced, however, by rapid growth in labour demand elsewhere - possibly to the extent of creating shortages. A flexible economy, with easy access to useful training, would make these imbalances short-lived.
If "the average schmuck looking for a job" is having trouble finding one, I'd blame a system that allows employers to train workers to be productive for their current employer & nobody else and then puts the rest of the cost of training on the worker. In a society where demand for various types of labour is varying rapidly & unpredictably (even without the added complication if immigration), this is a recipe for economic inefficiency.
The difference is the petri dish is full now.
- USA acres/person = 8
- UK acres/person = 1
USA's petri dish is nowhere near full!Iceland has less than 3 people/km2; yet, without fishing, they cannot feed themselves ! Even with a couple of km2 of greenhouses.*
I think our "petri dish" is a bit ovwefull; but with adjustments, we can barely make it.
*Ultimate Jeopardy question. Name the only European nation to grow bananas commercially.
Been there, seen them. Albeit in the mid 1970's when my dad was stationed there for the US Air Force. But great country, finally making vodka and other nice things, not to mention nice looking ladies. I got my start at rock climbing and rock jumping there. They still are top on my retirement list of places to go.
Thanks Alan for all the info you provide about them.
I moved back to North Little Rock, last month, to find that my parents have more hispanic nieghbors. They have jobs, and kids, but speak very little english. Its an old neighborhood, I think my parents are the only ones left that have not moved out or died off, from the time they were the newcomers to the block. That was 29 years ago. I also discovered an undercurrent of dislike for the Hispanics that never seemed to be there before.
I don't know, but I do feel a change going on. I am not sure what will happen, but I don't see it being any good for Hispanics that can't speak english in the coming years.
50 years ago, take out hispanic and put in black youths, and see what would have happened in the above news article, about rape and stabbing.
We'd get some cheap shale (just rice, beans, corn, tomatoes for food) and also discourage more illegal immigration.
What do we do with the children? Dry distill 'em for hydrocarbons?
Babies can be watched by their elder siblings. This is also current practice.
That reminds me- Philip K. Dick, The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch.
So it is roughly the same thing whether you are talking about the:
- Mexican/USA border, or
- Palestinian/Israeli border
- Nevada/California border (some light humor here)
Most of the border crossers are simply trying to get across for a chance at a better job and a better life. Of course the incumbents are going to see the new transplants as threats to the established status quo for various reasons. So I guess the more interesting --and less provocative question is-- after TSHTF due to PO or other calamities (i.e. GW), where will the highest prosperity regions be and where will the lowest prosperity regions be, and how does one get oneself ingrained as an accepted local in a high-prosperity region before its inhabitants decide it is time to close the border?BTW, some time you offered to set up a website for me. Offer still open? I'd like to post my science fiction novels for free access by anybody. I'll retain copyright for book and film purposes.
Have a wonderful 4th of July plan. Beautiful woman, Lit major, exactly half my age for brats, kraut, maybe some Margaritas or tequila shots with salt and lime. Purely a platonic relationship, of course, . . .;)
For a name, I'm thinking of "Adventures of C.C. Eggum," because Caesar Cadwallader Eggum is the teenage hero of my series. It begins just as he's going through puberty a few months befoe TEOTWAKI and ends in Volume 5 with him and his wife Kari of 70 years going out on the first starship. It is a multigenerational saga, in the tradition of R.A. Heinlein.
Oh, one other thing--do you like to do stage or TV appearances? As you may have guessed, I'm a great ham actor and can teach most anybody "the method."
http://www.baen.com/library/
If this were a few years ago, I think this rape/assault story would have been largely accepted for what it is, a random case of violence. But, I think that Americans are feeling economically squeezed and looking for scapegoats. Having said, that I agree that we have to do something to reduce immigration.
FYI--I would be careful about approaching cars in Texas. Ever since conceal and carry was passed in Texas, I have been a very considerate driver. I always assume that all the other drivers have these characteristics: they just got laid off from their job; their home is in foreclosure; their dog died; their spouse just left them and they have a loaded handgun in their lap.
BTW, some recent case histories of "Frontier Justice" in Texas, in roughly reverse chronological order (most recent first):
A man is waiting for his daughter, outside his ex-wife's house. A couple of youths start smart-mouthing him. The man gets his handgun from the car. The accounts differ from here, but the two youths are shot and badly wounded. The youths had no weapons. The grand jury does not indict the man.
A man witnesses a murder at a mall. He returns to his car and gets his 44 Magnum. He approaches the assailant, who has just gotten in to his car, preparing to pull out. The witness executed the assailant with one shot to the back of the head. The grand jury did not indict him.
A man witnesses the murder of a state trooper. The witness goes to his truck, get his deer rifle, and executes the assailant with one shot to the head. No criminal charges were brought.
A man's daughter is beat up by her boyfriend. The father gets his gun, goes looking for the boyfriend, finds him and executes the boyfriend. One problem--the father shot the wrong guy. This one did go to trial, but the jury acquitted the father. I think that the jury foreman was quoted as saying that "A man has a right to defend his daughter."
My personal favorite: A man finds out that his wife is sleeping with a local (ambulance chasing) lawyer. He gets drunk, grabs his shotgun and starts blasting away at the lawyer's house. In this case, the man was sent to jail, but before handing down the sentence, the judge chastised the shooter for missing the lawyer.
You gotta love Texas.
FYI--I knew two of the shooters in these cases.
I know one family that totalled out three trucks (including one humongous SUV) from deer strikes during a period of about five months. Damn long-legged rats!
Your Texas-style justice is likely to spread rapidly, but I hope it doesn't come to mellow and nice Minnesota. Really, people here are mostly nice--except for the outsiders . . .
I want to say this. I love your writing. And I always have. This last post about these gun/murder/court-cases is one of my favorites. I laughed and cried all the way through it. I don't go to the movies anymore because I know where to get the quality stuff now. The real stuff.
I know that we have traded shots recently. And I know this is going to continue. There is no reason why it shouldn't. We both need good, live-fire training and moving targets to practice on.
But I also want you to know that I am indeed a lot closer to your thinking and your position than you may imagine. Call it Devil's Advocate, or whatever. I agree with many of your points. I challenge you because it is in my nature to do so. I want proof beyond a reasonable doubt. However, don't take this as a sign that we are on the same page. We still need to work towards that.
We are both Americans, we are both on the same team.
Happy 4th of July,
Oil CEO
http://www.sciam.com/print_version.cfm?articleID=000CE155-1061-1493-906183414B7F0162
"The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises ... in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate. --Francis Bacon, Novum Organum, 1620"
I am not saying any one group fits this criteria better than any other - doomers, cornocopens, fence sitters can all have confirmation bias.
So the cure for us is to foster skepticism. We should all welcome those who give our posts a tough argument more than those who blindly cheer us on. I'd rather be right about peak oil than regarded as a hero at The Oil Drum.
I would rather be very rich.
So, generally the native-born person is turned down because they "need to speak Spanish" or some such rot, and eventually after enough of this they're living in their cars, leave the state, die, or something.
This is only going to get worse, a lot worse.
PS. Since I am a truck driver I get to see alot of this great country. Last week I was driving in Texas and you would think that $2.80/gal was not much of a big deal. As I cruised down 35W and back up hwy 45, I noticed far more SUV, and I mean the real big ones, driving along passing me while I was doing about 75 mph.. The SUV's seemed to far out numbers other vehicles in Texas and most were probably traveling a great distance. No thoughts of conservation in Texas as far I could tell..
In Wisconsin, speeding laws are strictly enforced. One of our Minnesota governors was ticketed for speeding some years ago, and he paid the $180 or whatever it was with good humor.
On I-35 in Minnesota, people routinely drive 20 m.p.h. over the limit. Big SUVs equal BMWs and Corvettes and Porsches as some of the worst offenders. People who drive Ford Rangers (small pickup trucks), for some reason (low income?) often obey the speed limit.
I know these people, and I guarantee that none of them will ever even drive off road. What a bunch of mindless lemmings.
Six years. Zero interest. Amazing.
If there isn't anything in the fine print that puts some interest or fees back in (1) GM is spending its guts out to keep sales up, and (2) I'd say damaging us all at the same time.
And I work in a DOD laboratory.
As Leanan continues to point out, I think that we are initially seeing the reduced consumption in developing countries.
BTW, the Sunday New York Times story on China's rapidly growing car culture was very interesting--car sales up by over 50%, in the first three months of this year versus last year. They quoted one Chinese driver as saying that "driving is a right." The author noted the explosion of gated suburban communites around large cities. (I think a link was posted yesterday.)
A review of his predictions might be in order.
I think oil prices with "vary" with an upward bias. I think T. Boone Pickens guess of $80 on 1/1/07 seems "about right". So 2007 will largely be $80+, not in the $70s. How much "+" ?
I see an economic recession as likely in 2007. High oil prices will be one drag; higher interest rates and falling housing starts (and "weak" prices) will be the other major negative with some pressure from the suto industry.
Just my take on the near term future.
So that's why I saw a recession starting in 2007, after 11-06.
Oil is almost certain to remain above $65, and most probably above $70, until this year's hurricane season tails off towards the end of 2006. Spikes to $85 or higher are quite probable. I expect a price spike to $85-ish probably in September / October, and I expect oil to average over $80 in 2007 unless...
The only thing that will cause a significant drop in oil price happens: a significant US recession. That would probably not be good news for you and your work, either. I think there are probably mild signs that high gas prices are affecting the US economy already and I expect those signs to become more noticeable over the coming months to the extent that the US will be entering recession by yearend 2006.
So, rocks and hard places spring to mind. Recession and lower oil prices, possibly averaging in the low $60's in 2007 but unlikely to drop below $56; or just a mild reduction in growth and average oil prices around $80 in 2007.
If that seems bad, all the risks are for it to be worse rather than better. A hard winter, severe hurricane damage, geopolitical upsets, supply disruption, sharp depletion rates for major fields, etc, could all impact both oil prices and the US economy in the painful direction. The only positive advice I can give is: plan accordingly. If you are hoping for a significant improvement you will be disappointed, sorry :-(
I don't have much faith in the accuracy of my predictions. I consider myself a peak oil optimist. Matt Simmons is a peak oil pessimist. I will remind the reader that Matt knows alot more than I do.
But how long do they last ?
How long till they exhaust local reserves ? Run out of natural gas ? Just wear out ?
In comparing new rail to new tar sands plants, I would like a life expectancy #. The first NYC subways still in service are about 100 years old BTW.
These trains run standing-room-only at midnight. At rush hour, you're lucky if you can even find a space to stand.
It's hard to imagine a public investment that has been more useful to more people for so long.
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=28.895334,47.956352&spn=0.108059,0.161018&t=k&om= 1
And what I believe to be a part of Ghawar in Saudi Arabia:
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=26.920233,48.732948&spn=0.2201,0.322037
If anybody can explain what these images are really of, please do! I can't think of any good reason to trap the oil in pools like what they seem to be doing there .... If you scroll around some of the fields you can see gas burning taking place - cool :)
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=26.920233,48.732948&spn=0.2201,0.322037
Another two of Ghawar - yes that's really all oil wells:
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=27.464109,47.587624&spn=0.438058,0.64407 3
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=25.206184,44.537888&spn=0.223344,0.32203 7
This is Prosperity Well, the first Saudi oil well discovered:
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=26.323768,50.124071&spn=0.013828,0.02012 7
Aramcos headquarters are near by.
Beautiful picture of a gas/oil separation facility in the desert below the UAE:
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=22.528374,54.042606&spn=0.028501,0.04025 5
... along with an airport and small town to support the workers, it seems:
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=22.511189,53.956389&spn=0.014253,0.02012 7
http://www.saudiembassy.net/1998News/News/EneDetail.asp?cIndex=1531
Gas/Oil separation plants like this one also do water injection to maintain field pressure. Shaybah had about 15billion barrels of proven reserves in it but the Saudis claim more were added since the sites opening in 1998. It sends about 600kb/day onto Abqaiq, for less than a dollar a barrel!
About 650 engineers work at the complex - all male. It can reach over 50 degrees C in the shade during summer. Doesn't sound much fun to me ....
I believe this is Ghawar: http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=25.403895,49.679146&spn=0.180493,0.27259 8
http://www.gulfpetrolink.net/publication/guide/graphics/SaudiArabia/Saudi-Ghawar_A4size.pdf
http://www.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=Qatar&ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=25.929333,4 9.687707&spn=0.013875,0.027122
You can see what appear to be well heads attached to pipelines scattered around near it. So maybe that's what the oil fields in Saudi Arabia look like.
I'm pretty sure that the first photo is of Burgan though, and that seems to be full of squareish storage pools and pipes. Hard to believe there's any agriculture in that area.
The pipelines seem to run alongside the roads in many cases and be partially (but not completely) buried:
http://www.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=Qatar&ie=UTF8&t=h&om=1&ll=25.908944,4 9.689617&spn=0.006939,0.013561
At any rate, really interesting to explore! This new high res imagery is great.
I'm glad this satellite imagery is catching on. Those shots in the UAE of the GOSP and airport are amazing. It looks like another planet. I would highly recommend switching to Google Earth from the simple maps. It uses the same images. The seamless zooming, tilt, and rotate functions make it ten times the experience. You can simply post links like this:
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=36.855943,-116.429738&output=kml
Yucca Mountain nuclear waste storage site
Use the "degrees" option as opposed to "degrees, minutes" to get the Longitude and Latitude. The output=kml tag opens URL in Google Earth.
Once to get an image you like you can take a snapshot as a JPEG.
Burning oil well in Kuwait! Oops, looks like it might be pretty hard to put it out ...
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=29.843492,47.847766&spn=0.006691,0.010064&t=h&om= 1
I should be doing something productive ...
Cheaper and easier than building lots of gas - oil - water separators.
Everyone should look at these pictures. I've sent URLs on to industry friends to see if they can elaborate.
A large chunk of the Saudi oil infrastructure came into being during the mid-1950s to the early 1970s, well before there was much environmental awareness, much less specific pollution control and environmental protection regulations in place.
Up until the US started to promulgate and enforce environmental protection regulations in the early 1970s, unlined 'pits, pond, and lagoons' were extensively used throughout the US for a variety of storage, waste treatment, and waste disposal applications. The oil industry was no exception. Many of these created such serious groundwater contamination problems as to become Superfund sites requiring enormously expensive remedial efforts.
In a desert country like Saudi Arabia, which has over three times the land area as Texas,it was probably all too easy, even up until quite recently, to just dig a shallow pit in the sand and dump oil production wastes there, where rapid percolation into the ground and evaporation into the hot desert air made it appear that the stuff just 'sort of 'went away'. One would hope that these days they do things a little more in accord with modern waste treatment practices.
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=25.179874,49.340522&spn=0.013613,0.01978 4
Lots of this kind of activity in the adjacent areas too. Some looks pretty haphazard like maybe they're rendering the heavy solids for asphalt to use locally. That must be dried up salt around all the fringes. Can't tell for sure if all the black is oil or water.
They look so dark mostly because the desert is so light in the satellite image. Note that the areas of natural foliage (to our eyes desert foliage is usually gray to brown, since it requires water to be really green) are much much darker than the bare sand. The image processing for satellite images keys off the average brightness, which is that of the sand. Therefore foliage looks almost black.
I also see some areas that look like old brown circles not presently under irrigation. I have seen a similar sight looking down out of a plane over western Texas / eastern New Mexico: green circles in the desert.
Why would they grow crops in West Texas for example? Answer: Ogallala.
Anybody have solid data on this?
On the other hand, I guess I can believe Jeff if he has flown over them. It doesn't make much sense to grow crops like that when not near any rivers or sources of fresh water and yeah most of the fields are being injected with seawater (they need processing stages to remove the salt ...), which implies there isn't lots of water just lying around.
The other curious thing is that some are clearly pie-slice shaped which isn't what you'd expect from a pool. So I guess they aren't oil fields after all. It's surprisingly hard to find the fields given how large they are!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrigation_in_Saudi_Arabia
Oops!
Just a thought -- you know, making synthetic ethanol, or perhaps butanol, would be a way to liquefy natural gas for overseas transport. Wonder how that would compare in efficiency with refrigerating the gas to transport it.
It is 33 miles from Al Jubayl on the coast of the Red Sea, according to Google Earth.
Google Maps: http://maps.google.co.uk/?ie=UTF8&ll=40.288561,49.707985&spn=0.091791,0.158272&t=k&o m=1
Google Earth: http://maps.google.com/maps?q=40.288561,49.707985&output=kml
Eruption picture: http://images.google.com/images?q=azerbaijan+mud+volcano the picture of the eruption with lots of obvious smoke & flame
The locals scrape some extra cash by scraping salt from the margins of the evaporation lagoons and selling it. You probably don't want to put it on your fries though: it is rumored to be rich in uranium and other nasties.
Big shout out to Oil CEO for revealing the trick of linking to Google Earth.
Flubbed it on Brazil. I'll double on Germany now. Let's go with your opinions. No time to be shy.
Pre Game analysis....
Just read Leanan's top link on the Dehcho Indians' resistance to the proposed spiderweb of pipelines across their ancestral lands. This brief quote from the article I found interesting:
---------------------
Government officials say their demands are unrealistic. "It would give 4,500 people the power to govern an area about half the size of France," said Tim Christian, the chief federal negotiator. "And we certainly have not done that anywhere else [in Canada] and do not believe that is an appropriate model."
-------------------
This is the SUSTAINABLE LEVEL for this Canadian forest-->4,500 people scattered across an area half the size of France for centuries. The Canadian Govt, if truly far-sighted, should see this as the ONLY APPROPRIATE MODEL.
Does anyone doubt our outlandish degree of planetary OVERSHOOT?
Our genes are not our friends.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thxs for responding. You are probably correct--> see my post on overcrowded Gaza living conditions below.
If I had the proper skills: I would like to investigate the US national electrical grid to determine what major cities are best abandoned to Olduvai Gorge, then shift the majority of these people, and grid transfer the power to those cities best equipped to survive a while longer.
Take Arizona for example: we have hydropower, a huge nuclear powerplant, and a coal-powered generation plant up North, but we are in drastic pop. Overshoot in relation to true sustainability. Additionally, we are at the ends of the TX & CA pipelines-- they will cut us off at some postPeak inflection point. The water & wildfire problems statewide are becoming increasingly dire.
If most of the multi-millions of Arizonans were transferred to the Seattle, Washington area, which has a lot of hydropower of its own, and the AZ juice was sent to the Seattle area--would this be a workable option?
IF SO, the Governors of AZ & WA should be coordinating this postPeak plan. The Seattle area should be building huge mass-transit systems, along with dense, walkable, permaculture-thick urban settings. Arizonans could be taxed very heavily, with the funds going straight to the Seattle area, and other Washington cities, to jumpstart this plan. WA could offer a one-time rebate to any Arizonan that moved there.
The sooner this gets started before Peakoil, the greater the chance of reducing violence. If every Arizonan who moved to Seattle was required to do permaculture or farm labor vs. opening a pointless tanning salon, SUV dealership, or other wasteful endeavor--this would initialize the required tremendous manual labor shift to offset the coming loss of 'energy slaves'. I would like to see 60% of the WA/AZ citizens being daily devoted towards this end, ala Zimbabwe, in the next five years to feel that appropriate progress is being made.
I think this induced change would create widespread MSM discussion that our genes are not our friends; this would greatly increase cooperation, reduce violence, and most importantly, vastly reduce the birthrates nationally.
If Olduvai Theory is true [and I believe it is!], national planning to optimize the grid decline is essential. Other states could undertake similar plans: Tx to Minnesota, Florida to the New England Area, and so on.
Supercomputer simulation of this needed trend of grid analysis and migrational shift could be easily done: if we can convince our leaders that a Foundation for predictive collapse and directed decline is a NATIONAL EMERGENCY.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Instead of filling the edges of existing cities (the current ad hoc way we do it), it may be worthwhile to create some "New Cities" that will be functional Post-Peak.
The current administration is unlikely to act.
I think "New Towns" with 100,000 to 300,000 residents, good freight rail access (preferably two lines) and river/ocean access would be best with good agriculture land nearby (but not directly on the good farm land.
An expanded Vicksburg is one option (good farm land accross the river in Louisiana, one track railroad bridge over the Mississippi, wooded hilly land unsuitable for much farming). Warm enough to have limited heating requirements.
The clifts may have wind potential, and some small hydro.
Another choice might be Northern California close to Oregon.
Thxs for responding. I agree with that other TODer of nominating you for President to get your suggested transit reforms jumpstarted. That would be a huge stretch, of course, but maybe Secretary of Transportion for the next President's Cabinet might be attainable. I think Norman Mineta let the country down by not endlessly ranting and raving about the drastic need for more RRs. Keep your options open, and the ideas coming! We need someone to try and ramrod thru Congress legislation for much more transportation change.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
But I have to make the ideas visible enough first.
As to those in Zimbabwe, I would bet that the vast majority of them would like to be living in Rhodesia right about now.
Don't worry: All the wimps and wheezers and whiners and most of the mean people go to Florida or the parch belt, i.e. Southwestern part of United States.
I recall somebody (Kingston Trio) made a hilarious song about all the troubles in the world, and the refrain was:
". . . and Texas needs rain!"
Texas is going to be in tough shape as the Oglala dries up and oil production continues to diminish. Plus, of course, higher fossil fuel prices will kill their agriculture and destroy people with long commutes.
Minnesota is for Minesotans! We don't need more people!! You cannot endure our winters nor can you "speak Minnesotan." Stay out foreigners!!!
You bet.
Ubetcha.
I'm from the western side of the Lower Peninsula, about halfway up and within 10 miles of the beaches. It is heavenly in the summer, but in the winter, the area often gets "lake effect" and "lake enhanced" snowstorms. Sometimes it can be a near blizzard near the lake, while 40 miles inland, the sun shines.
Thxs for responding. Please tell me how--you will have to scientifically refute the leading genetic scientists and writers across the planet: Darwin, Dawkins, Morrison, Hanson, are just a few. The Nobel Prize winning theory that can pass the peer review system must be carefully detailed and logically exhaustive.
Every lifeform on the planet, but us, is willing to live totally in the moment; to face reality head-on in a very tight feedback loop. They walk, fly, crawl, swim, slither, or slime in true somatic existence, or DIE TRYING.
Every since our ancient ancestors genetically harnessed the leverage afforded by tools and fire; when we became EXTRA-somatic, we have held off reality at arm's length or greater. Please ponder the implications of this sentence.
Instead of fighting the invading bear or wolfpack with our own tooth & claws [somatic-style, w/tight feedback], we adopted sharp sticks, rocks, and burning logs. Today, we can fight off 'invaders' with .50 cal sniper rifles, remote-controlled Predators drones, or ICBMs. Our harnessing of FF detritus and other resources have made us Ultimate Extrasomatics!
How do you stop wasteful consumption with the associated dopamine rush? How do you stop the genetic full body chemical flush of reproductive desire? How do you stop the desire for the convenience of 'energy slaves'? How do you stop greed, lust for power, jealousy, envy, prejudice, and hundreds, thousands, or millions? of other genetic lizard brain level primal responses? How do we stop the desire for inclusive fitness?
Can we develop a drug that instantly creates real totality awareness? Can it force us to exclusively use our grey-matter to induce universal common sense? Can we somehow disable our primary computer--the lizard brain?
Our fellow TODer, the LastSasquatch, states that we cannot overcome evolution, but there might be a way to 'trick' ourselves into acting differently. I surely hope the leading genetic researchers find the required breakthrough before we get too far postPeak. This is the only way to make our genes our friends, at least as far as I can see. Time will tell.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
LOL! Me too-->I have no biological offspring myself.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Thxs for responding. I agree that humans can be trained for sustainability, but will they accept this new programming easily or violently? That is what I am trying to ascertain. Past declines point to a very bad collective human reaction, but the Japanese Edo period may offer some hope.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
During the Edo period, do you know how a Samurai tested his new sword?
I believe TrueKaiser's answer below is correct. I think the premier swordmakers also preferred to temper the new red-hot blade by quickly qwenching it inside some poor bastard's abdomen versus the standard method of dipping it into a bucket of water. I can't exactly recall now where I saw that technological tidbit, as I was shocked: perhaps a TV documentary on PBS, or maybe just a movie special effect. Yikes!
Regardless, such tactics by the elites made the peasants listen and obey sustainably for over 250 years.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
If the sword failed to cut through all that bone, flesh, muscles, etc., then the samurai would return the sword to the swordmaker and demand a better one. The swordmaker was not paid until his sword passed the peasant-cutting test.
Nice folks, those Edo Japanese;-)
Unless she's very good looking and has a fabulous latex wardrobe.
"Stop it, stop it...stop it, you frickin'pervert."
"Whaat? Whaaaah. What. What are you talking about? It's not me, goddamnit. It's these guys, it's Sailorman and oldhippie. It's not frickin' me. I'm tellin' ya. It's not me."
- Latex, 7/4/06
For sure we will run into materialism as a fully satisfying scope to enable us to become friends with our genes.
But before we do, you can help me with the scope of the Olduvai theory.
It says: "Industrial Civilization can be described by a single pulse waveform of duration X, as measured by average energy-use per person per year".
Figure 2, too, states the model covers all people in the world (world average energy - use per person). Which implies all people of the world live in a industrial civilization. For what percentage is that really true?
Next the model implies it's possible and required to define all available energy in terms of "barrels of oil equivalent" (which can clearly be linked to "industrial"). I guess it's easy to argue also the sun is a source of energy. Is this factor included in the oil equivalant used? If it is, this implies inclusion of everything we (don't) know about how much sun energy there is and will be, and how much of it we can effectively convert into "work".
Duncan divides the broad sweep of history into 3 phases, the third being "a new period of equilibrium". I guess this leaves open "a period of a new equilibrium". Anyway, the future part of the pulse doesn't tell us anything about a possible stone age+ level of energy available and that being sufficient.
Did anyone publish an update on the Olduvai data after 1996?
Since you draw "the LastSasquatch card", I'll rephrase my second line: can you send me your emailaddress? I rather prefer my learning in a less public way, until at least I have a better understanding where we (dis)agree to (dis)agree. Thanks :)
Here is the link to Duncan's latest update [PDF file]:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/OlduvaiTheorySocialContract.pdf
Then you will know as much as I know. I make no claim to any expertise, that is one reason why I keep my email address very constrained. I prefer to refer people to the original experts or sources on the WWWeb as I am lacking in statistical analysis, engineering acumen, financial and economic analysis, and a host of other skills including touch typing!
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Excellent! Can't wait! Hamlet X 7,000,000,000 collective soul-searching decisions = ???
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
But I know some people who make their living that way, and it is brutally hard work.
But still, vaudeville, etc. will work well in a powerdown scenario.
Anyway, we could have a lot of fun together.
I've got it! A TOD standup comedy team . . . . teach with humor instead of fear.
The talent already out there is too good. Dave Chappelle. Dane Cook. Hard to compete with that. Plus I like the clique I hang with. Savinar's cool. But he will be unseated.
From the Los Angeles Times:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ecoparc3jul03,0,6522592.story?coll=la-home-business
Pioneering Technology Lab Now Puts Energy Into Solar
PARC and others are tackling the mechanics as well as the efficiency of photovoltaic power.
"The Xerox Corp. subsidiary known as PARC has produced super-efficient solar systems that experts say could make photovoltaic power -- sunlight converted directly into electricity -- available on a large scale at prices competitive with fossil fuels for the first time. PARC's technology is one of several promising approaches in the field."
all i see is hype of a salesmen and no hard data.
Somewhat more information about what they are doing is here:
http://www.parc.com/research/projects/cleantech/docs/PARC-SolFocus.solar_whitepaper.pdf
till i get some hard proof on this i am throwing it in the growing pile of hoax's and scams. also if i was a betting person i would put my money on these people disappearing overseas after getting one or two major investors to give them money.
The current conditions in the Gaza Strip will become postPeak commonplace for Phx, Vegas, and other areas, unless ASPO's Energy Depletion Protocols are adopted, voluntary pop. controls are the norm, and huge Powerdown programs jumpstarted.
I think most people truly cannot mentally deal with the obvious ramifications of Duncan's Olduvai Gorge Theory.
EXCERPTS:
-------------------
Living conditions in Gaza grim
GAZA - Mahmoud Mughari speaks bluntly. "I normally wash and shower twice a day. Now I can only do it every four or five days. The children smell. We all smell. We are worried that this will cause diseases."
Outside the home in central Gaza he and his family share with his elderly parents, five married brothers and their children - 48 in all - Mughari was describing the impact made by Israel's air strikes in Gaza last week, one of which severed the waterpipe serving this refugee camp of 57,000 people.
The first problem, Mughari, says, is that power - which would normally be running, among much else, refrigeration and fans in 33C temperatures - has been cut from 24 hours a day to eight.
The second is that water previously available two days out of three is now available for only four to five hours every third day. And the third is that the impossibility so far of ensuring electricity and water coincide makes it impossible to pump the water up to the roof tanks and provide a steady supply through the taps.
Mughari's family have been storing their rationed supplies in two blue 250 litre barrels, saving most of it for drinking and - when it is possible - for cooking. And to escape the heat, he says, members of the family have started sleeping on mattresses on the pavement outside the house.
As one of only two brothers working - the other three are unemployed tailors - Mughari has not received the $405 a month payment for three months from the job creation scheme he works on.
---------------------
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=2&ObjectID=10389594
I have posted before that packing a single, well-insulated house with family members is the best way to defray expenses--it should also makes it obvious to these unfortunate people that: "Our genes are not our friends."
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
(View from the other side of the world - what is so grim about the conditions?)
The conditions described would be considered "excellent" by the millions teeming the cities of India, especially in the north. For example, the capital, New Delhi, touches 45C (113F) and above in summer. Power and water supply can be very irregular - sometimes no water at all for days on end. Water for a few hours a day is a luxury there. The only difference is there is no Israel to bomb them regularly!
I myself am from the south-western state of Kerala, blessed with very high rainfall. But even there, people do not take anything for granted, especially power and water supplied by the typical bureaucratic Govt. agencies.
Welcome to reality! ;-)
the reality to them is the power being on 24/7 and water being only a handle twist away.
no one can fathom livin in conditions where water is hard to get at and power is only for the rich or at best on for a hour or so but not on regular intervels.
Thxs for responding. Welcome aboard from me! We need all the different perspectives we can get from people outside the US here on TOD. I wonder how long before Phx living conditions are similar to New Delhi. We, in the Asphalt Wonderland, are already hotter than New Delhi--113F is a normal heat season temperature. Sadly, the typical Phoenician takes everything for granted.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
detail about what life was like back then. You can read it on line. http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/moodie/roughing/roughing.html
Snippet:
Looks like MSM is preparing the masses for the truth.
My god, these people are going to die en mass post peak. Heck they are barely alive now. Hanging on by a thread in the middle of the desert.
Refuge camps are in a tenuous situation to start with, as budgets get tight an oil supplies dry up these people have no real options but to die.
"This week, rumours of successful oil exploration in Lake Albert finally exploded in a frenzy of excitement fuelling talk that Uganda could soon become a continental oil giant like Sudan, Angola, Egypt, Libya et al.
Hardman, the Australian firm that has been prospecting for oil in the Albertine basin told Museveni that it is early days yet, but there is every indication to believe that the oil fields are commercially viable. Initial results show that the fields are capable of producing at least 4,200 barrels up from 1,500 barrels per day."
http://allafrica.com/stories/200607030669.html
"Canadian oil pipelines could face capacity constraints by 2008 because of a surge in heavy crude oil from the Alberta oilsands, the National Energy Board says.
....
The demand for natural gas for oilsands production alone is expected to triple over the next decade to about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day from about 700 million cubic feet, according to the report, An Assessment of the Canadian Hydrocarbon Transportation System."
http://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=33693
This talks about some nano technology development which can help extract a lot more of the oil out of the wells.
Can someone please shed some light on this?
http://sydneypeakoil.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=2821&sid=6512733a19add76b3efaae3df080e778
This has the same material and a few lines more.
http://www.azonano.com/news.asp?newsID=2450
Thanks in advance.
Rao
Is there anything crazier?
I sincerely hope it doesn't get any worse.