It's a bit unfair to suggest that I'd like you (Heading Out) to shut up. I'm certianly not saying that one should not worry about security of supply, but I am certainly saying that the issue is being hyped by people with other motices as well, and is being polluted by other games being played.

• the West has no reason to doubt Gazprom's ability to fulfill its commitments. Thr Ukraine dispute proved that Gazprom will favor its reliability to the West over its income form Ukraine (it caved to Ukriane BEFORE any deal was reached) and all the European buyers know it well, since the 1993 and 1994 episodes, which were substantially similar to the one this year)

• meanwhile, the EU Commission, in its ideological drive to create "competition", is try to ditch ther long term contracts that are at the core of the gas industry in Europe, and, in doing so, is directly threatening Gazprom's long term ability to finance its future investments. Gazprom is understandably miffed at this, and that conversation has been going on for years with, again, a good chunk of the industry (and DG TREN - the energy directorate) much closer to Gazprom's position than to the Commission (the competition and internal market directorates)

• inside Russia, Gazprom has to deal with the fact that it is obliged to deliver gas at low prices to users, starting with power plants. It is in a long running campaign to get these prices increased. Creating the impression of shortages, and getting those clients that are able to to pay higher prices on the grey market for additional supplies are good things from Gazprom's perspective. They do not signal per se that there is a supply problem - just that there is a suply problem at low subsidized prices.

• some doubt Gazprom's ability to put more reserves online and to increase production when it will be needed. Why should it invest for capacity that can only be sold at low prices now. When it really needed extra production, it quickly ramped up Zapolyarnoye. Do people actually realise whant it means to put 100 bcm/y on line in less than 5 years and for a few billion dollars? Gazprom just created another Shell in terms of production size) out of thin air. When it will be needed, more fields, whether from Yamal or elsewhere, will come on line when needed. Remember that there is a history of skepticism that Gazprom can deliver - skepticism which has each time been contradicted by facts. People said that Blue Stream would never happen. It did, and Gazprom cornered the Turkish market. People mock the much delayes Yamal-Europe pipeline. But it WAS built. Only, it's the "Europe' bit (i.e. the Western branch from Western Russia to Germany via Poland) which was built, thus ensuring that Gazprom had the requisite export capacity for the 2000 decade. So no I don't buy the "Gazprom won't make it" arguments.

• deliveries to China will happen from fields that are totally separate from those that send gas to Europe. Westenr Siberia is simply too far form China to make it worthwhile to build pipelines between the two. It just does not make sense. China is just not a credible threat, and if it's believed in the West, it's just because our politicians and pundits are too stupid to leanr about the industry or because they have ulterior motives in generating energy-linked geopolitical tensions.

• as I've written before, my contention is that the tensions with Russia are being whipped up by those that are trying to hide their own incompetent policies (Blair), that are trying to wrest some power (the EC trying to get a role as an energy policy maker in lieu of the States, and trying to exert its power over the EDFs and E.Ons of the continent) or that have generally happy to whip up the atmosphere of fear and conflict (and scapegoating) rather than looking for real solutions to our energy problems - solutions that might impact the profits of their friends in the oil and military industries (Cheney).

Other forms of renewables are almost untapped. Think about the deep geothermal energy to produce electricty. There are several projects going on here in Germany right now. Here we have the opportunity to gain experience in this very elegant form of renewable energy. Which will be as well a new field of work for geologist and drilling companies.

Other renewables will fo as well a significant job. I can see many, many buildings without s solar thermal collector on the roof. There is still a lot of space for it.

The extension of renewables will go on. Higher prices for imported natural gas from Russia will only help to accelerate this process. Markets need some pressure to develop and the best way of pressure are higher prices.

greetings from sunny Berlin, marotti32

At the end of August each year, the IEA updates the past 15 years' reports with all the latest revisions. I have not had time to check and see how big any revisions have been.

But I think that the numbers I focused on, and the conclusions drawn, should stand, i.e. that the biggest oil producers, and in particular those wit hte ability to increase production, are also substantially increasing their internal consumption, thus eating in their additiona lexport capacity, while those that are in decline are also seeing storng demand growth, thus compounding the need for more substitute exports).

Basically, demand growth is very strong, especially since the decline in the FSU stopped.

'Peak Oil Review' is in fact published by ASPO-USA. The editor is Tom Whittle, whose articles on peak oil in the Falls Church News-Press are often republished in the Energy Bulletin.

I also find it odd that Energy Bulletin is publishing a piece with Simmons in one half disparaging BP and in the second half all the data supporting claims is from BP.

While we're on the topic, i.e. off-topic:

The only good reason for disparaging BP is that they have in the past been overly conservative in their reserve estimates  -- they almost got as much stick from Odell et.al. as did Colin Campbell for initially predicting the peak to occur in 1989 (or thereabouts).

This is all very well explained in an excellent article by Roger Bentley titled 'Global Oil and Gas Depletion', which you will find here (PDF file).

Perhaps it is partly because they tend to rely on BP's definition that peak oil forecasters err by paying too little attention to the magnitude of the yet-to-find fraction. As everybody probably knows, BP defines 'proved reserves' as follows:

Proved reserves of oil- Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in thefuture from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. [my italics]

known reservoirs? No wonder peak oil analysts find it so difficult to accommodate discoveries such as Chevron's recent GOM mini-elephant.

Apologies for reinventing the wheel.

Chris Cook has been posting quite a lot in recent times on ET as well, both on his Iranian oil bourse work as well as for the potential for LLPs to be used to create new financing structures in the energy structure. (I'll say upfront that I'm skeptical on both fronts, but the discussion has been interesting)

Sailorman has published the first of a trio of post peak novels for young adults on the linked site. I would caution, some of the material is for adults. Also beware the website layout and  any problems with the font. His editor must be a complete idiot. But I've been assured the minor problems will be corrected soon. I guess we should call it the Beta version.

The Adventure's of C.C. Eggum

So nice to see Don "God Clearance" Sailorman back working for the government.

I like it, thanks for the honorable mention :-).....great imagination....do you think we can get a mention in there of what the "hackers" might be working on by then though....something like....

http://www.pmlflightlink.com/archive/news_mini.html

I like your mention of "the Electric car Apollo project, which interestingly enough did not include any of the previous big three auto makers."

If you want to see why the big makers won't be in the picture, in America or otherwise, check the disclaimer at the bottom of the link above:

"BMW (UK) Ltd has requested that we mention they have no involvement with this project and that such conversions invalidate warranty!"

The hackers are trying to give them stuff on a silver platter, and they are too blind to take it, they should be paying to be involved....hard to feel sorry for um' ....

Roger Conner known to you as ThatsItImout

The only "power" had by a lemming going over the ledge is the power for a last moment "Oh Oh" whether thunk or uttered out loud.