DrumBeat: January 16, 2007
Posted by threadbot on January 16, 2007 - 9:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Satellite gap alarms Earth scientists
The U.S. satellite system that monitors Earth’s environment and climate needs an urgent upgrade or scientists will lose much of their ability to predict events like hurricanes, according to a report released by the National Research Council on Monday.The report said maintaining current observation and predictive abilities will cost about $3 billion a year from 2010 to 2020 if its recommendations are carried out, but action needs to be taken soon.
The Cheap Oil Mirage - Kunstler
The American public is understandably happy to see the bottom fall out of the oil futures market. But temporary circumstances are only sending them another false signal that everything is perfectly okay on the oil scene. And it only reinforces the foolish belief that when prices go up it is solely because corporate finaglers tweak them up on purpose. In fact, these days it's the other way around: often prices go down because corporate finaglers are tweaking the markets, dumping positions, playing shorts rather than acting like real oil users bidding on real contracts for delivery for real purposes like making gasoline. When oil goes up, as it certainly will again, it is primarily because of geology -- what's left in the ground -- and secondarily because of geopolitics -- where it's left in the ground (and what's happening there).
The answer to this problem is abundantly clear.It's called the free market, and unlike its socialist counterpart, it works like a charm. It's not to be feared, as Chavez claims, but embraced-especially if your goal is to maximize your oil production.
Bolivia gambles on energy and wins - for now
When President Evo Morales ordered Bolivia's energy fields nationalized last May and sent federal troops into its abundant gas fields to make his point clear, critics warned that he would isolate Bolivia and choke off its main source of revenue.But with Morales about to celebrate his first anniversary in office Jan. 22, most Bolivians regard the nationalization as a tremendous victory.
Iraqis will never accept this sellout to the oil corporations
The US-controlled Iraqi government is preparing to remove the country's most precious resource from national control.
Oil firms face Latin American woe
US oil companies have said they will stay in Honduras, despite the state saying it will temporarily seize control of oil storage containers.The Honduran move, made on Friday, will affect firms such as Chevron and Esso.
The news comes as Venezuela refused to negotiate with foreign oil firms over its wider nationalisation plans.
We're #2! UAE Tops U.S. for Energy Demand
When it comes to squandering the earth's natural resources, residents of the United Arab Emirates, a desert land of chilled swimming pools, monster 4x4s and air-conditioned malls, are on a par with even the ravenous consumption of Americans, according to the World Wildlife Fund.
Forecourts: France authorizes biofuel but more carrot needed
France has joined a number of other countries in approving the commercial sale of biofuels, with the French government stating that it hopes to see biofuel's share of total motor fuel consumption rise to 7% by 2010. However, legislation alone is not enough. Given the need to convince retailers to provide biofuels, and the attendant costs, the uptake of biofuels also needs to be consumer-driven.
Lukoil Set to Revive Saddam-Era Oil Deal
Lukoil, the Russian oil company, is poised to resurrect the $4-billion (GBP2-billion) contract it signed with Saddam Hussein's regime to develop one of Iraq's largest oil fields.The company's US rival, Conoco-Phillips, will also benefit as it has a stake in the joint venture with Lukoil to develop the West Qurna-2 field, which holds up to 16 billion barrels of oil.
Is Russia-Belarus Friendship Over?
Lukashenka's strategy of relying on benevolence and subsidies from Russia, long regarded as the natural ally, is over. Possibly Moscow was irked by the patriotic content of Lukashenka's 2006 election: a platform of "For Belarus." The Kremlin may also be concerned by the close links between the Communist Party of Russia and the Lukashenka regime with a Russian parliamentary election in the offing. Analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev remarked that Belarus is a cordon sanitaire that divides Russia from the West: it excludes Russian business, the joint defensive system is a myth, and Belarus can freely confiscate Russian transit goods. "Lukashenka has exhausted the trust of the Russian leaders" (RIA-Novosti, January 11). Lukashenka has become, from Moscow's viewpoint, expendable.
Indonesia inks oil contracts to boost reserves
Indonesia signed new production sharing contracts with three global energy firms -- ConocoPhillips, CNOOC Ltd. and Premier Oil -- on Tuesday to boost reserves, the oil minister said.
South Korea shifts focus to proven oil, not exploration
South Korea will change tactics in its increasingly urgent quest for overseas energy assets this year, targetting more costly but proven oil reserves after years of pursuing high-stakes exploration acreage.
Petrobras Says Domestic Reserves Stable in 2006
Domestic oil and gas reserves of Brazil's state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, remained almost stable in 2006, but overseas reserves fell due to write-offs in Venezuela.
£3m energy centre will boost Scotland's economy
Scotland's first state-of-the art renewable energy park is expected to inspire new businesses and create 1350 jobs over the next 25 years.
The Balkans and the Eastern Leg of Europe
The former republics of Yugoslavia will play a key role in Germany’s EU presidency and Europe’s ability to resurrect an age-old empire.
India: Govt to cut distribution losses in power sector
The 11th Plan would set a target of bringing down distribution losses in the power sector to 15% from the current level of 38% for the country, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia said on Monday.
Nigerians groan as fuel scarcity bites harder
As a result of the scarcity of petroleum products and the attendant traffic jams, many workers could not get to their offices. Some enterprises opened late for business and some others stayed shut.Reports from across the country indicated that the fuel situation in Lagos is replicated in other places, with petrol being hawked in cellophane bags at prohibitive prices in some parts of the north where the product can be found.
Nigeria clashes leave a dozen dead
PORT HARCOURT, Nigeria - Royal Dutch Shell evacuated staff from two oil installations in southern Nigeria and the military boosted troop levels in the volatile area Tuesday after community clashes left a dozen community chiefs dead, officials said.Bisi Ojediran, a spokesman for Shell PLC, said only a skeleton crew remained at the two evacuated pipeline hubs in the Niger Delta region, a vast area of mangrove swamps where all of the crude in Africa's largest producer is pumped.
Some leading scientists and evangelical Christian leaders have agreed to put aside their fierce differences over the origin of life and work together to fight global warming.
Prices at pump likely to fall more
Gasoline prices dropped over the holiday weekend and are likely headed lower. But drivers who expect gas prices to fall as sharply as oil prices in recent weeks will likely be disappointed.
PetroChina Reports Record Oil, Gas Output in 2006
The annual oil and gas output of PetroChina Company Limited amounted to 1.06 billion barrels, up 5.2 percent from a year earlier, it announced on Monday.
Warming trend visible in the trees
Rising temperatures are allowing Southern trees to thrive farther north and stressing trees used to colder weather, according to new national guidelines issued by planting experts.
Oil falls $1, Saudi says no need to panic
Oil prices fell more than a dollar to below $52 a barrel on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia's oil minister said OPEC production cuts were working well and there was no need for an emergency meeting of the producer group.
Nigerian oil minister says no decision on OPEC meeting
Environment ministers lack clout on global warming
Environment ministers are sometimes rising stars -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel had a stint in the 1990s -- but are often far less experienced than cabinet colleagues in charge of issues such as defense, health or education.
Alaskan villagers get Citgo oil vouchers: "Devil, angel, whoever gave it to us, we're grateful."
When Big Oil Buys Out the Big Diggers
Like all oil companies, BP must work harder and harder to find new reserves. The company has also raised its profile in alternative energy technologies. Yesterday it announced five North American wind-power projects to deliver a combined 550 megawatts of energy in California, Colorado and North Dakota. It will be interesting to see if its interest in alternative energy lasts. If oil prices remain at this level or go lower, how many alternative projects will be shelved? Will consumers care about going green if the black gold doesn’t put them into the red?
Kinder Morgan to buy rest of Canadian NGL pipeline
Water leak at Japan nuclear plant
The country is reliant on nuclear power to meet its energy needs, but its shaky safety record has fuelled popular opposition to the plants.
Tests Show 'Artificial Sun' Is Reliable
Designed to replicate the sun's energy generating process, the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak fusion reactor recently garnered positive results in tests being conducting at China's Institute of Plasma Physics, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported.
Hello TODers,
I think the oil companies in Nigeria will be able to safely extract more oil, with less environmental damage and violent conflict, if they exchange 'real assets' instead of just cash to the corrupt Nigerian leadership. The money is just not trickling down in sufficient quantities for the poor after the Nigerian topdogs get their cut of the cash. No wonder there is so much conflict in the oilfields. Real assets for the poor could include much more than these following items: wheelbarrows, bicycles, medical & veterinary supplies and training, local schools and hospitals, solar ovens, small Coleman cooking stoves, solar water heating, hand tools, fertilizers, composting toilets, and so on.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hey Bob;
I asked once before, but it was buried deep in a long thread..
Have you ever looked at what they are doing north of you with the "Arcosanti" project? North of Flagstaff, I think..
I think their forward momentum has been a little glacial, if the term isn't too inappropriate or critical .. but the goal seems very useful. As I understand it, to create a medium/high density community built on what is considered to be 'wasteland', and without a great dependence on external energy & supplies.. save Solar, of course. Water use is designed to recycle and reuse much of the supply through natural Bog and Pool systems. The whole habitat is designed with a modular approach that makes efficient but very livable places for residences, workplaces, public spaces, etc..
As we look at the precipice that may well face cities like Vegas and Phx, I want to hear more about how some of the Arcosanti ideals could be turned into retrofits for the currently 'Greengrass' building developments that surround our desert Cities.
I don't doubt that Wheelbarrows will be an essential ingredient, and even possibly a status symbol, at some point.. Maybe we can work together to design the 'Once and Future SUW!~ Sport-Utility Wheelbarrow'.. to ease the transition for our many unconvinced brothers and sisters..
But in conjunction, I'm trying to imagine what turnkey systems could also be in the wings to allow a currently unsustainable, irrigated Trophy-Lawn into a water-reusing garden plot, or a Housing Development into a mini-village, with some shops, some energy generation and a 'mini-grid', some food supply internally, jobs internally.. and a couple bus/light rail stops.. or bike trails that keep them connected to the city-center where other jobs and markets/trade-goods connect them to the rest of the world..
Regards from the (Finally!) icy and wintry Northeast! .. and don't believe what they tell you.. we got almost nothing of the ice that slammed the middle states this weekend. But this morning, I'm working on our IceStorm plan again, just cause one day, we'll get hit with something!
.. And THERE! I've gone and upstaged the ARCOSANTI question with a lot of other good stuff.. Take a look, if you haven't had any experience with them.. I think they are working in a smart and hopeful direction, that sounds somewhat inline with many of your suggestions.. minus the "Fast-Crash" parts, anyway!
Bob Fiske
Hello Jokuhl,
http://www.arcosanti.org/project/main.html
Arcosanti is just north of Phx, about an hours drive, towns close by are Cordes Junction, Cottonwood, Camp Verde. Not north of Flagstaff at all.
Yep, I have toured Arcosanti years ago, but not involved in any way with it. I just don't think they have enough water and high quality topsoil to make a go of it. The surrounding boomtowns and the Asphalt Wonderland are sucking the small river and acquifers dry, and GW is predicted to make this even worse over time. My guess is that the inhabitants will never reach the energy efficiency levels of the Anasazi or other ancient native desert-dwellers before they abandon Arcosanti. The summer desert is absolutely unforgiving if you don't have water and/or shade; you are simply toast.
Az has drastic elevation changes with corresponding climate zones: from above-the-treeline tundra, to near rain forest, to scorching sand dunes. If the population could be radically reduced-- IMO, the best strategy would be a migrating tribe that moved with the seasons and additionally short-term moderated temperature/weather changes by altitudinal variation.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hi Bob;
Thanks for the thoughts.
My main reason for watching them is not necessarily the success at that particular, and fairly extreme location, but to see what tools they have been able to use or reinvent that gives an advantage to any community trying to survive in landscape that was once (Artificially) abundant, and becomes increasingly marginal, esp WRT water supplies, roadway conditions, piped-in power requirements.
My own optimism, to such an extent as I can maintain it, lies in our ability to adapt and devise new tools to handle changing conditions, and our ability to codify and share these discoveries. With the sometimes underappreciated abilities of the internet, we can still duplicate and spread a good (or bad) idea to all corners of the world, and not have to wait for the Pony Express and Literacy to get an idea or a blueprint broadly disseminated.
Without the help (or interference) of massive energy inputs, the solutions will have to begin varying from locale to locale. I suppose there will continue to be forms of migration that follows the fruiting fields, dodges the hurricanes and sleet, but at the moment, what we have is mostly settlements, and we have a number of advantages we've learned to glean from planting deeper roots, such as shared infrastructure (Geothermal installations, Water Purification , Greenhouses) that benefit multiple families/clans.. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these 'Beehive' Developments investing in a central WindTurbine, for example. This morning, I sketched up a recurring notion of mine, where you get some temporary storage with raised weights to smooth out the variability of wind generation. Of course, a community might also invest in water storage, which lends itself to using the water in High and Low tanks to achieve this end, too.
( Variation on the weights system might be a Hilly Community that builds a Funicular (Hillside) Trainway, and uses parallel counterweight tracks (In hillside trenches, with ample 'freefall security') to both lift the car system, and to store energy from Direct-winched Wind Turbines atop the hill ) The build would be expensive, but fairly simple in modern engineering terms. Lifting could come from other inputs.. Hydropower, PV to Elec Motor, etc) Lots of Bikespace built into the Funicular Train!
'Do Yeast ask themselves a corresponding question?'
Bob
(By the way, your tagline has become my default summary of the conversation here. So if I play with it a little, it is not to offend, but because it has given me food for thought. PPS, It's maddening,too.)
I've not been to Arcosanti, but looked at visiting and am familiar with tourism-driven economies, and I don't consider Arcosanti any more sustainable than the "Polynesian Culture Center" (a Polynesian theme park and Mormon recruiting tool on the Windward side of the island of Oahu). In fact, I'd say less so, since the "PCC" is surrounded by much more hospitable land. In either case, sustainability would only come after 90% of the people in the area died. In both case, they're kept going by visitors with bulging pockets, who leave with smiles and much thinner pockets. The $ obtained is used to buy goods from outside, many, generally thousands, of miles away. This is how SPAM gets to Hawaii and how strawberries get to Northern Arizona towns in January.
This is certainly an interesting anthropology/architecture project. But an approach to better living for 10 billion people on earth it is not. And I don't think it strives to be that. For one thing, if you ask any ecologist, they will tell you that the middle lattitudes of Europe and the US provide the ecologically most stable habitats for large population densities because they have an abundance of water and fast healing vegetation. Even very crudely destoyed natural sites quickly recover under these conditions and with some landscaping even badly scarred landscapes can be restored. Reforestation, for instance, is not a battle against a harch climate but a rather straight forward exercize.
Europe has many success stories to tell and continues to heal many of its wounds that were inflicted in the 18-20th centuries. See e.g. the Ruhrgebiet in Germany which was (and still is) one of the countries centers of heavy industry. Once the cadmium, mercury, lead, oil etc. loaded layers of earth below the former industrial properties are removed, natural habitats, parks etc. can be restored and a dirty urban landscape becomes, once again, a living community for many people. Similarly the industrial channels that many European rivers have become are being restored with flood areas to support a wider variety of species.
Deserts are a completely different kind of environment which are already on the edge, even without human influence. Even small disturbances lead to irreperable harm or require much longer time scales to return to halfway natural conditions. The Arctic is even worse. There is little hope that large numbers of humans can move to these environments. There is little incentive for them to move there, either. The planet has plenty of space to accomodate people in areas which are ecologically stable and can support them.
The central problem with human overpopulation is that once large areas get destroyed by the local population, the same people (have no choice but to) move on and continue destroying neigboring areas without reflecting of what went wrong and how it can be avoided. Usually "the return on destruction" of these events is very poor (see logging) and few, if any, of the people responsible for these ecological catastrophies reap much of a reward.
In contrast, inhabitants of Europe and North America have been able to earn a steady (and steadily growing) income from the areas they altered for their economic needs. The reasons for this very obvious difference are well understood and are all related to us taking less out of these eco-systems than they can produce. Modern agriculture is, after all, nothing but the application of science to the problem of keeping top soil in good shape for the next seasons. Neither deserts, rainforests nor the Arctic allow such an approach as far as we know.
If you take a look at e.g. Singapore, you can (still) see responsible use of limited space. The people there live in highrise buildings but large fractions of the city are (still) set aside for parks, nature preserves, botanical gardens, the zoo etc.. The resulting urban environment is very enjoyable and certainly a much better solution than the suburban sprawl in the US where cheapshot develpers are giving millions of people a blueprint copy home which is poorly designed, boring as hell and has no other cultural environment than the copycat mall next to which it was built. Singapore, by the way, is a city in constant development, but the developers are simply upgrading the existing highrise buildings with new replacements. It is a vertical, not a horizontal upgrade. One can only hope that the Chinese (and the US?) will learn something from these excellent examples of urban architecture.
Coming back to the deserts areas of the US: certainly the best possible use for many of them would be for energy generation. Areas with low ecological potential which have already been destroyed by human activity (see e.g. the area around Las Vegas) can be used to produce copious amounts of solar energy without risking further habitat destruction for many species. The energy can then be transmitted through power lines to areas which can support much, much larger human population densitities without risking their complete ecological destruction. Or so the theory goes... in practice, of course, Americans seem to prefer destroying a pristine area over making more efficient use of those places they already occupy. At least the current generation of Americans does. Let's hope their children and grandchildren will know better.
INFINITE, surprise me, please.
As people toss at you WRT Solar Electric, over and over again.. "Nope. This idea has nothing to show.." (and if you were answering the point of the question..) "It does not contain tbe silver bullet I want, and thus has no Silver BB's to concern yourself with."
as you said on or about line one..
"But an approach to better living for 10 billion people on earth it is not. "
You produce thousands of words proclaiming that such and such is ImPOSSIBLE. It's a conversation killer, a buzz-harshing seemingly for it's own sake. Try an experiment and look for the things in a proposal that DO look like possibilities. It's where I think these vital BB's are Hiding.
I'm finding your tag increasingly non-credible, even though I know you and I do support many of the same BB's. I think PV should be a universal, contributer (not all, just PART), mainly installed right at the point of use, so Rooftops are my first choice (Incl Factories, Stores, etc..).. Then, it's getting hit with minimal Line-losses, and can double as a home's Roofing material, reducing that absurd use of Asphalt and the throwing away of all tbat door to door Energy, right before it got to you.
"The planet has plenty of space to accomodate people in areas which are ecologically stable and can support them." I'm glad to hear it (Trust, but Verify), just as I'm glad that there is plenty of sulight to power everything. It's just a matter of going from here to there. Piece of Cake.. you'll just leave the details of that to everyone else? That is what this is.. What are some mechanisms and designs for backfitting current communities where SO MANY people live? There are ideas, there are ways to learn how to improve our model-community while we start to change.
It's worth looking at anyone who is working on Living Area, Water Use, and basic Community Design, basic community leadership. Nobody expects a finished plan to spring forth from one individual or type of experiment.
By the way. How do you define "Ecologically Stable"?
One of my concerns is that up here in the Fecund and Fertile Northeast, we might have to deal with an unexpected shift to something more like Desert conditions. If that's the case, I want us to have generated a bunch of 'Last-minute best-sellers' that will have studied, tested and compiled every little scheme we can Possibly Scheme up.
Johnny Trek "It's a crazy plan.. but it just might work!"
Signed,
Finite Patience
Central Europe is mostly ecologically stable and can be made into a fully sustainable environment as the past shows. There are problems with the bork beetle and such but they are managable and they are being managed. To keep agricultural production stable has been a managable task, so far, but then, there have been enormous investments made in the past in water supplies etc.. I don't see that changing in areas where people are planning _responsibly_.
Much of the US Midwest, of course, is living on borrowed time as long as it power mines its aquifers like geological treasure troves. Peak water is just as much a reality as peak oil. That is not the fault of the environment but the fault of the people living there and of everyone else who wants to eat cheap steak every other day. If a place only supports switchgrass really well, but could support switchgras really well for centuries, well, switchgras is probably what you are supposed to grow there... I believe we have a lot of ecologists who can tell us all about these things by now. And if as a result of listening to rational planners my steak will be twice as expensive, I will get a larger side of potatoes with it and live just as well. I think that, too, is a fair statement, isn't it?
WTF? Bark beetles are chowing down right around the high latitudes of this planet wherever there are conifers. Managed? Dream on. Management is performed by cold weather, which is not forthcoming.
The ecological stability of Central Europe is a phantasm purely of your imagining. If nothing else, please see Noisette's posts right here at TOD. Central Europe is seeing extraordinarily high temps and rapid changes of all types.
Stop posting so darn much if all you do is make stuff up.
Actually, not to spend much time on infinite posting, he isn't really wrong.
That is because Central Europe has a number of people who are involved in maintaining its stability. Sure, the weather is extreme - but then, in the early 1940s, the weather in Central Europe was essentially at the level of the Little Ice Age/Maunder Minimum- people, like the world around them, also respond over the longer term.
We are still very much in the realm of 'normal extremes' - beyond that is frightening, and yes, we seem headed that way, but the variables are large, as are the effects of those variables - and a century or two is a fairly small time scale.
That things get harder is not the same as saying they are impossible - though pines have been having a hard time in my region, it is because of a storm from 1999 - and the oaks planted in the last generation, behind the now gone pines in terms of normal wind directions, have been growing well for a generation - a lot of people are cutting the excess oak to use in the next couple of years as heat - the forest is always managed as a source of fuel, around here.
Crops will be adjusted - strawberries continue to be a big bet among the local farmers looking for profit (making jam from these strawberries remains a very basic skill - my garden grows without much care at all, for a few kilos of jam a year). If strawberries don't do well, maybe the raspberries will - also in the garden - or the cherries - common in the region - or the plums - also common - or the pears - also common - or a few trees not known in the U.S. (Quitten, for example) - or peaches - not at all common - or apples - everywhere - or the blueberries - quite uncommon - or the grapes - wine or eating - both common - and so on.
Note that I am just describing my town, a completely average one. People here are very worried about climate change, as someone who is referring to hazelnuts may well be - but no one is seriously thinking people won't be able to adapt, whether in the eyes of someone who feels that planting olive trees would be very profitable in the future, to the town forester not seeming how olive trees could survive one normal winter, even if it only arrives once in decades in the future.
That so many many people in America don't see this happening is a problem for people familiar with life in Central Europe to grasp - and some of those people have little patience for explanations why something won't work, instead of just doing it since it needs to be done. (Another commenter on another thread remarked about people going out into local fields on a bicycle with long handled tools over their shoulders - this is still normal here, and likely will be for a long time - and remember, merely a century ago, they just walked, and today, they still could.
Actually, for all its flaws, the idea that solving a discrete problem is sufficient to master that problem, used to be a fairly common American perspective, too. That it has gone missing is a fascinating mystery. Ask someone from New Orleans - America seems incapable of actually responding to normal challenges, not only extraordinary ones. And yes, a major city ruined due to incompetent planning and implementation seems to be a real flaw, which as pointed out in another thread, didn't happen in the aftermath of another city, whose geographically determined location comes with earthquakes, the San Francisco of 1906. People may not have relied on 'the government,' but their society seemed capable of mastering what happened.
"INFINITE, surprise me, please."
What for? Do you really want to be surprised? I don't think so. Do I want to surprise? No. I am trying to give lines of arguments that establish mainstream engineering solutions to mainstream economic problems. The above community is no such example. It is marvelous architecture, though. A lot of urban architects could learn something there. I respect things for what they are, not for what they are not.
"You produce thousands of words proclaiming that such and such is ImPOSSIBLE."
I didn't. I said that the real solution will look a lot more like Singapore than anything in the desert. Please read my posts.
"I think PV should be a universal, contributer (not all, just PART), mainly installed right at the point of use, so Rooftops are my first choice (Incl Factories, Stores, etc..).."
So do I. I could point out GWs worth of rooftops for you in my area alone. But what I also said was that putting PV into the desert is a far cry better for the desert than to put people there. PV/thermal solar land use is a well controlled and limited operation that does some immediate damage and after that results mostly in more shade and changed local temprature profiles. How this can be made compatible with the existing natural environment is a truly important ecological research project. It is far more likely that we have a chance of making power plants compatible with the desert environment than that it will support major human settlements. Solar plants do not produce waste, don't need much water, create little polution from cars etc.. In short, if we have to touch the deserts of this planet, I would support doing it with solar technology rather than human settlements.
"Then, it's getting hit with minimal Line-losses, and can double as a home's Roofing material, reducing that absurd use of Asphalt and the throwing away of all tbat door to door Energy, right before it got to you."
I don't have an argument with you on these things. There are enormous advantages to residential solar with one exception: cost. Industrial scale solar and solar thermal facilities (which can reach much higher area efficiency at much lower cost) are not compatible with urban infrastructure. Yet, if we want to produce e.g. solar hydrogen, we will have to go industrial scale in the places with the most insolation. That, unfortunatelly, are the deserts. Don't get me wrong... somebody might just invent a dirt cheap, long lasting sextuple layer or continuous bandgap solar cell with 45-55% efficiency tomorrow... in which case industrial scale solar might be a dead technology. But I am a realist and I don't see that happening. What I see is that we will have a mix of different technologies. Much will be residential with all the advantages and disadvantages of local power generation. But a lot of it will be happening in fragile environments and we need to be prepared to answer the questions of how much we are willing to invest to keep those places alive while we are extracting energy.
"It's just a matter of going from here to there. Piece of Cake.. you'll just leave the details of that to everyone else?"
The details are ugly high voltage power lines. Some of them are already there and there will be more of them. Other solutions are pipelines for chemicals and steam. Some of those are also already there... and there will be more. I am not a frequent hiker but I have hit on three or four water, gas and oil pipelines in my life while hiking in areas where I would never have dreamed of finding one.
Look, I am a physicist, all I need to do to inform myself about the solutions is to go to the library and get the textbooks on power lines, pipelines, steam transmission etc.. None of this is rocket science. Our engineers know how to do these things. And we know that on the scale of what is needed none of this can be hidden easily or cheaply. Reality is what it is and I acknowledge that. I do not go around selling a car that runs on water or that mythical free energy device.
For the same reason I do not dream of a city on the hill in the desert. I know it does not work for any realistic number of people. But I also know that the public transportation system in Singapore works just fine and that one can live comfortably on the 20th floor of a highrise building and enjoy the walk in any one of the three beautiful parks that are only minutes of walking distance away.
"What are some mechanisms and designs for backfitting current communities where SO MANY people live?"
In the US? Raise the population density, for one thing. McMansions are very inefficient in retaining heat in the winter and staying cold in the summer. You get the same effect from living sandwiched between two other heated/air conditioned floors that you get from the very best insulation materials. It is a no-brainer why heating and cooling in New York city is so much less costly than it is out on the farm. The New Yorker needs a heck of a lot less energy than the person who lives in the middle of nowhere. McMansions are responsible for much of our suburban traffic, too. I understand that the schools out there are supposed to be better. What I don't understand is why we can't fix our urban environments. People in Europe and all over Asia certainly can.
"Nobody expects a finished plan to spring forth from one individual or type of experiment."
No. But that does not mean the US is anywhere close to the standards in other continents, either. What you fail to acknowledge is that we are way behind the status quo. We do not need to look for new solutions because we are already failing to use the existing ones.
As a final word: this settlement is (probably) a great example of how things should be. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is an example of how things really are.
I hope this is not too controversial a statement for you?
Not controversial, just simplistic.
Las Vegas is how one, very extreme US city is. It may be exemplary of the problems, but it is at the far end. Portland, OR is not, or Missoula, MT. It is not 'How things really are', and is exactly the kind of overstated universal that you pepper your posts with.
"What you fail to acknowledge is that we are way behind the status quo."
When? This is exactly what I fault with your arguments all the time. You say "There's enough Solar", but kind of shrug off the amount of work/politics/communications/public support required to get it going. "It's solved" "It's no big problem" - What do we need to do to get that industry fired up? Where is the new Polysilicon production coming from? Shouldn't we be getting in on that one in a huge way? There are bottlenecks all around that are hampering just this one, very simple technology.. it's not all Physics, or ugly grid additions.
But didn't you just say yourself that we are not "Anywhere close to the Standards in other Continents.." That's the problem, but you fold over on yourself and say an oil downslide is not a big deal. (Sorry, can't link to it..)
Bah, humbug. I have a flu.. I'm done.
Hi IP,
I appreciate this exchange here, as with most TOD conversation.
My questions: Re: "We do not need to look for new solutions because we are already failing to use the existing ones."
--What are the existing solutions "we" are failing to use?
--Who is the "we"?
--How can we stop not using them and begin to use them?
--What steps can "we" here (us) take as part of this larger "we"?
Hi Jk/Bob,
Re: "...basic community leadership"
I thought I'd take this opportunity to put in a plug for what looks to me to be a very nice silver BB, (seems still quite unnoticed outside the local area, other than by your truly who thinks what they are doing is one of the most amazingly positive things happening anywhere...) And that is:
http://www.ashland.or.us/Page.asp?NavID=541.
The basic set-up is:
1) A "civilian" coordinator can be hired, apparently fairly easily via funding from http://www.citizencorps.gov/. Why "civilian"? To find someone skilled in organizing and promoting community, who is free to devote lots of (hopefully creative) time to it.
2) This style of CERT, very literally "neighbors helping neighbors" and (if you read the newsletters) having fun doing it, brings together people from very diverse groups, or, I could say - cuts across many lines and gives people a common framework to relate and the means to do it.
3) Provides opportunities to, for example, teenagers and teaches them skills and a role, for example.
4) Anyone can take the initiative to get this program going in his/her community, as far as I understand it.
Aniya,
Very good point about community response and the value of community coordination. (BTW Ashland is a nice town)
Having worked as a volunteer EMT in our local volunteer fire dept. I can attest to the important community spirit that these kinds of organizations can create.
Many, many times on TOD I've seen the assertion that any 'solutions' we come up with for dealing with declining energy availability have more to deal with human social and political factors than those of the physics of energy. So, community cooperation is a good direction in which to steer the conversation.
care to enlighten me on you 'community solution' for growth, to tell them you must limit how many kids you have(if any)?
for those people who simply will not work with you because they think your nuts and use as much energy as they darn well please?
for those who would rather take you down with them?
Objection, Argumentative.
No, Kaiser, why don't you suggest yours? Population is a problem, but that's not what they're talking about..
ET said "I can attest to the important community spirit that these kinds of organizations can create." - What is your problem with this? Since we are overpopulated for a coming time when the race cannot count on the energy crutches that got us this big, do you have some kind of resistance to making sure that communities are at least functioning together?
The percentage of 'joiners' is often far too small.. of course there are people out there who won't or can't find it in themselves to sign up or show up.. all you can do is work to A)Improve that Ratio, and B)Have Plans, Skills and Tools in place to divert as much of a disaster as possible. You are doing it for 'them' as much as 'us'.. and if it works, it stems the next stages of repercussions as well as the initial complications. Not all, just as many as possible.. This is one of the
'ounces of prevention'.
Thanks for responding, TK,
It sounds like you've hit on two important things:
1) Population growth and
2) Communication. (And how to respond to people who do not respond positively to your efforts to connect with them.)
I'd encourage you to keep thinking along these lines, much as Bob suggests. I've been pondering the necessity to link population/Jeavon's paradox solutions with any technological or "hard" design type solution. For example, a 55mph speed limit is immediately doable; it's been done. This addresses conservation. To me, any kind of energy policy needs to cover *and* link solutions in all three categories.
And yes, I'd be happy to share some "community solutions": Let me just give a couple for now:
My suggestion for 1) Was inspired by comments back around Nov. 21 regarding population. My suggestion is to fully support and fund the full legal rights of women and children. More specifically, this means, to fully fund and support such things as community shelters (for victims of spousal abuse), and women's rights, to name just two.
There are many organizations one can support, by doing things as simple as 5 minutes per week online. For example, www.aiusa.org. Women's legal rights and education is fundamental to addressing population growth. (I'd like to write more about this later.)In fact, some people see it as just about the entire solution.
There is also a personal and "immediately doable" element to this. Namely, if one is male, try to understand and empathize with the experience of females, esp. in regard to what it must be like to be, for example, in the category of those who are molested as children. What it might feel like, for example, to be seen *only* as an object. http://www.ncptsd.va.gov/facts/specific/fs_child_sexual_abuse.html
On the communication aspect. There are some really remarkable skills one can learn. Check out www.cnvc.org and www.gordontraining.org. for examples. There are articles on those websites with examples that illustrate the point.
Thanks, Aniya.
Great Links, they went directly into my 'Community Energy Loss Solutions' Folder, and remind me to find out how I can be involved in our Emergency MGMT programs here in Cumberland County. (I save a lot of HTML with useful data in it, as I'm never that confident that the site ~or the web~ will still be there if I want to see it again!)
We have a lot of distress in our population in Portland and in Maine. (Poverty, Mental Health, Addictions) There are some great cultural attributes here, and some really hard ones, so the need to have some stronger links formed is going to be invaluable. I am involved with a group that is working to create closer ties between neighbors with Cleanup Days, Picnics, Potlucks and 'TimeDollar' Exchanges, but like anything that asks people to get outdoors and meet their neighbors, it fights against TV, VideoGames, Internet and our now habitual distance from those who live closest to us. But I hope I can start to see programs that will give my neighbors and I some useful work and training to do together that can upstage class, race, age, gender or personality differences and give us some common ground again. We have some parks, but we don't hang out together in them.. yet.
Bob
Hi Bob,
RE: appropriate basic items for third-worlders.
I once talked to someone who had travelled a bit in the poorest parts of Africa and they said the most requested items were plastic buckets and ballpoint pens. I though it an interesting combination.
Haul water, write letters.
In a case of life imitating art (the art being the documentary "Why we fight"), a retired general, who is now a defense industry analyst, was on CNBC this morning, talking in almost ecstatic terms about the money that is being spent, and that will be spent, by the US Defense Department.
He said that the US military is running through munitions and equipment while deployed in the Middle East at nine times the rate they do while in the US, and he said that all signs pointed to an upcoming confrontation with Iran.
In response to a question from a CNBC host, he said that it was a case of a rising tide lifting all boats, in that all defense contractors were going to benefit from the current and future fighting. My wife and I had exactly the same response to this--it's case of all defense contractors benefitting from a rising tide of American and Middle Eastern blood.
In my Air Force cadet days, our commandant, a colonel, gave a lecture on the "war benefits the economy" idea. He thought it was ridiculous. He said if the theory were correct, we should just build planes, ships, guns, ammo, tanks, etc, then sink them to the bottom of the sea. That way, we could boost the economy without killing anyone.
All wars are ultimately fought for economic reasons, from plunder and slaves to resource and territory control. All other proffered reasons be they religious or ideologic are simply cover. A war may benefit or bankrupt an economy depending on its outcome, i.e. the P&L statement at its end. Iraq I was very profitable. Iraq II is deeply in the red, so far (in both senses, unfortunately).
So true. The U.S. military does not defend American territory, it wages war for almost purely economic reasons. At one time the Secretary of Defense used to be called the Secretary of War - that seems more fitting.
As an aside, I can't help but think about my cousin who is a retired Air Force colonel. He was assigned the task of designing and overseeing bombing raids for a military operation during the Clinton administration. He was so horrified by what he witnessed and learned during this period that he decided to retire despite the fact that he was apparently being groomed to be put on a fast track for promotion.
As soon as he retired he bought a large parcel of land and became a farmer. He has said it would be too dangerous to own or use a computer, access the internet, or have a cell phone. Every year men from various agencies pay a visit to his home to remind him he must never talk about his work in the Air Force. Several years ago he told my sister that he wished our entire family could move close by so he could protect us when things got rough. We still have no idea what he was referring to.
The military appears to have a culture and operating system (esp. at the highest levels of authority) very far removed from what most of us identify as American society. As a former military doc, my husband has tried to explain this dichotomy. It seems impossible to try use our standards of logic to understand a system that operates on an entirely different world view than our own.
SP
Several years ago he told my sister that he wished our entire family could move close by so he could protect us when things got rough. We still have no idea what he was referring to.
Pick up and read the first couple of chapters in "Alas Babylon" and it is almost your cousin said word for word (or deed for deed).
Peace
John
"All wars are ultimately fought for economic reasons,..."
Is that why the oil price will have to go to $1000/barrel before we can recoupe our "investment" in Iraq?
I think the idea that wars are being fought for a single reason is a very dangerous one, politically. It does not allow you to correctly judge an enemy that acts out of religious or ideological reasons or simply because of mental insanity. You certainly would have misjudged Hitler and the Nazi party in WWII. You will certainly misjudge Iran and North Korea. None of these countries had or have anything to gain economically from going to war or even from preparing for war. They are not acting out of a well understood economic imperative. Neither does the US. There are certainly economic components there, but they are all related to the micro-economics of forces within the country which want to syphon off the procedes of their own people. In none of these cases will a war profit the country as a whole. In all of these cases do war and preparations for war weaken these countries economically and politically. Just look at the US with open eyes. The costs of this war are staggering and nobody in their right mind assumes that we will recover from it in less than two decades.
You miss an obvious point, namely that the massive costs of war are socialized, but the very large profits are private. Where private concerns that may profit from war have decisive influence on the political process, then war is more likely than otherwise. And this is particularly pertinent to the US. Ike didn't refer to the military-industrial complex for nothing. IIRC, Marx said that on balance the British Empire probably didn't turn a profit, but that didn't matter, for the foregoing reasons. The public pays the costs, but the loot is private.
Sure, the Iraq war will cost Americans generally a fortune, and will probably destroy the illusion of US military power once and for all (something completely unanticipated by people convinced of US omnipotence by several generations of Hollywood BS and largely fictional accounts of WWII, but hey - against stupidity the gods themselves etc.). But if you hold the right stocks, who gives a ****?