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DrumBeat: January 31, 2007
Posted by Leanan on January 31, 2007 - 9:45am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Mirror, mirror on the wall, how can oil plan at all?
Every morning as he brushes his teeth, a European oil company chief is reminded of the big question: is his business more like a tube of toothpaste or a glass of water?If the latter, his job is to make money by being efficient, to keep the tap flowing, the water clean and the glass adequately replenished.
A glass half-empty or half-full is the conventional view of integrated oil companies. These are utilities: there is plenty of oil and gas about and the job is to invest adequately, not overfilling the glass, in order to maximise the amount of money that flows from the taps and pipes.
The other view is that the business of big oil is to capture scarce resources. It’s about squeezing as much as you can out of the wrinkly tube. Oil companies are custodians of wasting assets: it’s all about reserves, who owns the barrels and the price, monetary or political, to acquire more of them.
Suddenly the debate over what oil companies are about is becoming shrill — and not only because the supporters of peak oil theory are getting more noisy. Whether or not the global oil industry has reached maximum output at some 85-90 million barrels per day, the stock market seems to have lost its ability consistently to price risk in the oil sector.
Mexican Cantarell Oil Field in Decline: Prelude to a Larger Crash?
Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field tumbled by half a million barrels last year, according to figures released Friday by the Mexican government. The ongoing decline at the Cantarell field could pressure prices on the global oil market, complicate U.S. efforts to diversify its oil imports away from the Middle East, and threaten Mexico's financial stability.
Venezuela Hits US Drilling Company with Stiff Tax Bill
Venezuelan tax authorities said Houston-based Pride International, one of the world's top oil drilling firms, evaded paying more than $32 million in taxes and now must make good on the bill.
Goldseek Radio: One of the featured guests is Jim Kunstler.
CEOs, Retired Generals Push to Curb Oil Reliance
An influential private group of corporate chief executives and retired generals is telling lawmakers on Capitol Hill to "think big" on energy.
Mr. Bush never mentioned the only realistic way to reach that goal: transit.
Americans who heard President Bush’s State of the Union address, including his pledge to reduce America’s gasoline consumption, can be forgiven for thinking he was finally ready to change that. But all Mr. Bush really asked for was the authority to set mileage standards in a different way.
On global warming, what US can learn from Europe: Four Senate bills offer market-based ways to reduce emissions of greenhouse emissions.
World energy council highlights nuclear power in Europe
With the world population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, WEC forecast that global energy consumption will double every year while demand for electricity is to triple.However, the report points out, there are solid economic reasons to support the development of nuclear power in Europe. "For existing plants the economics behind nuclear power look particularly attractive considering that planned lifetime extensions, capacity increases and license renewals can further reduce costs."
Loser: Corn-o-copia - Extravagant subsidies and low coal prices have made for some strange ethanol projects.
Oil Companies Lukewarm Over Gazprom's Shtokman Invitation
Oil and gas companies Statoil ASA and Total SA gave a lukewarm response Tuesday to an offer from Russian gas monopoly OAO Gazprom for them to join the massive Shtokman gas field development in the Arctic as sub-contractors.
After 4 Years of Growth, Texas Production Activity Hits Plateau
Texas' oil and natural gas production-related activity has plateaued after more than four years of steady growth, according to an index compiled by the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers.
China Sees Declining Oil Reserves Last Year While Natural Gas Soars
China's proven crude reserves dropped 12.33% last year to 2.19 billion tonnes from a year earlier while natural gas reserves surged more than 50% to 2.27 trillion cubic metres, far higher than the 1.15% average increase of world reserves, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said.
JAXA Targets 2008 Launch for Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite
The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is planning a summer 2008 launch for its new Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). JAXA unveiled a prototype of GOSAT at its space center in Tsukuba on Monday.
Russia and Japan Move to Strengthen Energy Ties
After decades of weak ties because of a dispute over four Pacific islands, officials from Japan and Russia have launched high-level talks on such strategic issues as trade and energy.
Australia PM welcomes report on energy future
Prime Minister John Howard has backed a new energy report which supports his push for nuclear power as a way to combat climate change.
Scotland Power Crisis Reinforces Need for Fossil Fuel Alternatives
Energy rationing. Energy famine. Are they even possible? It’s almost unthinkable in our bright, shiny, well-lit modern world that we’d have to get along without electricity. But it seems to be happening more and more often in densely populated urban areas that rely on centrally generated and distributed power. This time, it’s Scotland.
Paris to roll out free bicycles
The City of Light wants to soon become a city of bicycles. Paris City Hall announced it has selected French outdoor advertising firm JCDecaux SA to operate a new free bicycle service in the capital.
Harnessing Hydrogen - It's a Gas
"The Hydrogen Office project will show renewable energy for ordinary everyday use in offices and homes can be a realistic and affordable option."The development is expected to create 1350 jobs and generate up to £81 million in revenue across Scotland over the coming years.
U.K.: Parking hike for high polluters
Richmond Council in south-west London, has said high carbon dioxide-emitting vehicles will now incur three times the normal residential parking fees.
South Africa: 'No quick fix to Eskom energy crisis'
The Cape Town Regional Chamber of Commerce and Industry has appealed to businesses to re-examine the way in which they use energy in order to save electricity.
Brussels urges action on EU blackout threat
EU states should sign up to European Commission reforms on the internal market for energy if they want to avoid the kind of blackouts seen in November last year, Brussels said Tuesday (30 January), trying to steer a middle way between advice and alarmism.
10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative
Transition Town initiatives engage community in peak oil and climate change awareness, planning and action, building on the influencial Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan concept.
EU Tackles Oil Companies over Climate Change
The European Commission will propose stricter environmental standards for fuel and will require a drop in emissions from oil exploration and transport as part of the fight against global change, a proposal set for release on Wednesday shows.
Harnessing the Wind Power of the Highway
How many speeding cars does it take to power a lightbulb? Not such a stupid question—just ask GE.
Once a Dream Fuel, Palm Oil May Be an Eco-Nightmare
The production of biofuels, long a cornerstone of the quest for greener energy, may sometimes create more harmful emissions than fossil fuels, scientific studies are finding.
"Halt needed on number of biofuel plants"
Governments should introduce a halt on the number of biofuel processing plants until they are certain of how many are being built and are in control of the sector's growth, according to environmentalist Lester Brown from the 'US Earth Policy' Institute.
Washington state aims to build biofuels industry
Washington state legislators are considering a bill to promote a biofuels industry in the state and require state-owned fleet vehicles to reduce use of fossil fuels.
Africa seen missing out on clean energy investment
Africa has missed out on booming investment in clean energy projects partly over worries that it is a tough destination to do business, a U.N. official said on Tuesday.
California may ban conventional lightbulbs by 2012
The "How Many Legislators Does it Take to Change a Lightbulb Act" would ban incandescent lightbulbs by 2012 in favor of energy-saving compact fluorescent lightbulbs.
The Humboldt County Peak Oil Action Group will be sponsoring a free two-part Lawns to Gardens workshop on Feb. 6 and March 13, beginning at 7 p.m. both nights, in the Arcata Community Center Senior Room.
Iran's Khamenei Calls for 'Gas OPEC' with Russia
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called on Russia, the world's biggest holder of gas reserves, to help create an organization of natural gas producing countries, the official state news agency IRNA reported.
Russian Officials Oppose Iran's Idea of Creating Gas Cartel
Officials at the Economic Development and Trade Ministry and the Industry and Energy Ministry do not see any economic expediency in creating a gas cartel.
Looming on the European horizon may be a new type of "natural gas OPEC" led by Russia. The secret to its success, however, will be its ability to operate under the global radar.
Climate change report paints doomsday scenario for Sydney
Global warming will leave Sydney in permanent drought by 2070, with huge seas battering its famous beaches and raging bushfires threatening its outskirts, a new report says.
Bush accused of distorting evidence on climate change
The Bush administration has been accused of routinely misleading the public over the threat of global warming and of orchestrating efforts to try to suppress scientific findings that highlight the reality of climate change.
There was some discussion yesterday about "Cheney's Smirk" during the energy section of Bush's SOTU address on 1/24/07. I think I know why he was smirking.
My theory is that he knows that there will be a large draw in petroleum fuel supplies in this week's EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and there will be a nice runup in prices. He has prepared his hedge funds to make a nice profit when this happens. His giddiness was just him thinking about the $$ in the bank.
Given the numbers that just came out -
crude: +2.7 million barrels
gasoline: +3.8 million barrels
distillates: -2.6 million barrels
total commercial petroleum inventories: +0.3 million barrels
there must be another explanation for the smirk.
Predicting the weekly inventory changes, let alone the direction of the changes, is like rolling dice. Even the analysts, who watch this stuff very closely, are all over the map every week.
Ya...saw that...bit of a surprise.
I guess Cheney's smirk indicates that he just gets his rocks off when hearing talk about energy.
Although, this makes no sense at all, but crude prices are going up...go figure...there is no rhyme or reason in crude prices these days.
I thought the upswing might be related to the news on Cantarell
I think the MSM is pinning it on the Y2Y increase in demand.
I think the Rigzone article discussing "an increase in Texas production related activity" is typical of many media articles. It is
clearly meant to give the uninformed the indication Texas hydrocarbon production is increasing, when the reality is the article is about money being spent on drilling and related production increasing. More
money being spent for less results, in a nutshell.
boby,
You misunderstand. We have been increasing our reserve productive capacity here in Texas for 34 years. Please continue with your plans to buy the SUV.
I don't think boby is planning an SUV purchase, he seems to be agreeing with you. About the increased drilling activity, I made a firsthand report in a small comment around Newyear's...
When we drove up highway 79 across east Texas on the way to Mother-in-law's house, there were conventional drilling rigs all over the place, visible from the highway. We've seen all the pumpjacks on previous trips up 79, but rarely any drilling.
Now it looks like everybody that has a small holding anywhere in east TX is drilling the **** out of it.
I know. My semi-snide comment was for general consumption.
A recurring question I have been asking is whether the world is drilling fast enough to keep the post-peak decline rate down to the Lower 48 range--about 2%.
I don't think Rigzone is aimed at, nor read by, "the uninformed". It was a short, simple piece on the rig count in Texas, nothing more, nothing less.
I noticed that Freddy, who eloquently described Deffeyes & Simmons as "scumbags," was in rare form yesterday, attacking me, Ron and Khebab in one fell swoop:
Just a reminder:
Deffeyes, based on his HL plot, predicted that 2006 was the most likely year for a decline in world crude oil production, and world crude oil production is down.
I predicted, using Khebab's HL plots (and in support of Simmons' work), that 2006 was the most likely year for a decline in Saudi crude oil production, and Saudi crude oil production is down.
Khebab predicted that Mexican crude oil production would start declining in the 2006/2007 time frame, and Mexican crude oil production is declining.
In regard to Freddy's comment about HL plots. I have been focusing on large producing regions--60 Gb plus--especially as models for the world and Saudi Arabia. As I have repeatedly pointed out, the HL model has worked quite well both for modeling large producing regions and as a predictive tool.
Finally, is there any prospect on the horizon for anything that will address the troll issue?
We're working on it.
In the mean time, it would really help if you wouldn't bring old flamewars over into new threads. Why give the idiots more exposure than they already have?
Ah c'mon...I like the whole "moooo" ranking system...that's kinda fun!!
I second Mooooo ratings for the following reasons:
1) The Moooos provide feedback to the errant posters. If everyone Moooos you on a regular basis then maybe there is a hint there that you may be posting to the wrong blog to the wrong audience.
2) It gives all of us a sense of where the median opinion may be. I thought TOD was one kind of place but perhaps I am mistaken.
3) It saves the high electron usage/download times associated with extended flamewar rebuttals.
4) It may give the editors/site owners some useful feedback about the audience and this may then translate into a more effective posting/screening system.
Cheers!
Oh God, I knew this would happen. The Mooo! technique is the thermonuclear weapon of troll warfare. It should be used sparingly, if at all. It was with a heavy heart that I deployed it against dmathew1, who has infested many a messageboard and forum, derailing discussions with endless repetitions of his half-baked, apolocalyptic religious ravings. He is unusually persistent, unusually loopy and unusually tedious. The Moo! technique is therefore both appropriate and effective because it expresses the vast majority of readers' distain and non-interest in his posts, while giving him nothing substantial to reply to nor stroking his ego by taking him seriously.
To use this awesome power against lesser offenders would be horrific. I know many who post disagree with Freddy and Hothgor and find their persistance annoying, but they do actually discuss what this forum is about: namely oil and energy. As someone who comes here to learn and posts rarely, I find theirs a useful contribution as they do open up debates and provide a needed counterpoint to the majority opinion. Certainly, they could both do better and use less infective against those they disagree with, but even so a Mooo! would be overkill for the 99% of their posts.
So as the person who introduced the Mooo! system, I beg of you all - for the sake of the children! - only use it for the true nutjobs.
MCrab
So the homesteaders rule the roost? Anybody who disagrees with their point of view is declared a troll. Great - the most exciting part of the site will be the flame wars.
By the way, how many of the posters here are in the oil trading busiess? It seems to be in their interest to play up PO and higher prices, so I'm wondering, given that the amount of known reserves is in the four trillion barrel range, why so many posters keep spreading doom and gloom.
the Oil Drum's one great contribution to the Peak Oil movement is the persistence of its flame wars. The Oil Drum is populated by a bunch of people who must work at their computers and therefore have way too much time of their hands. So they waste it here where they can pretend like they are in control and doing something significant ... you know, saving the world from Peak Oil and religion and ethanol and legislation which might potentially harm the oil industry in some small manner.
You cannot blame people for behaving consistently with their own flawed character. The Oil Drum's is so narrowly focused that these people have no choice except to talk about the same thing every single day. The flame wars are just a sport for them.
Oil people aren't well known for their tolerance, open mindedness, philosophical acumen, religious knowledge, humanitarianism, morality, ethics or love for the environment. You can hardly blame oil people from behaving in a boorish manner because that is their very nature.
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
P.S. Where are those cows? Bring me some cows. I love these cows. These people would do the whole world a favor if they all became cows.
Sorry, somehow a later posting was misplaced.
The day TOD implements a popularity contest is the day that TOD joins the PO fringe setting. But if you want to be a radical site, be my guest. I certainly wont lose much sleep over it.
Moooooooo!
Un-Moooooo!
Moooooo!
OK, I've deleted some responses to Hothgor recently, I'll admit, as it just isn't worth anyone's time including my own - and after reading further down the thread, that includes this one.
Just noting that this an edit, as a delete function isn't available.
I'd like to have the ability to not see certain posters' comments. In fact, I don't want to see their comments or any replies to their comments. That would eliminate a lot of noise. I realize it would be a dangerous tool to use, I don't want to block out opinions that differ from mine only blatant trolls. I would also need to ability to review comments from people on my block list every now and then to decide if I wanted to unblock them.
Rating systems are ok I guess, but I've never been too pleased with their results on other sites such as Slashdot.
I wonder if there is software for wordprint analysis. Wordprints are a measure of how often a person uses prepositions, conjunctions, and articles (a, an, or the) in their writing. Counting the number of words a person uses in an average sentence is also part of wordprints. There are a couple of other factors involved also which I presently don't recall. It is extemely difficult if not impossible to change your wordprint. This means a troll who freqently changes their screen name and e-mail address could quickly be identified and subsequently blocked from filling up the comments threads with personal attacks and other drivel.
Tom Deplume wrote:
I seriously doubt this. Here's how to change it:
Go to the library find any writer you like and study his/her style. It isn't that hard to analyze sentence structure if you paid attention in grammar class.
In senior high, as a joke on an english teacher, I wrote an essay mimicking Dickens. Didn't overdo it, didn't attempt parody, just tried to be as Dickensian as possible. The teacher, bless his heart, gave me an A+.
You can also study the style of legal briefs, instant messaging chat sessions, scientific journals, wine labels etc.
EDIT: Actually, there is such a variety of styles here on TOD that you don't have to go to the library. Just pick another poster and begin your analysis.
Most of us, here, could do Freddy Hutter with no study at all!! :-)
See:
http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20070113/bob9.asp
For the record, I see more name calling by the people TOD apparently 'wants' to keep around then the people that you want to get rid of.
You are certainly in the top five most abusive posters.
Alan
Actually, average oil production for last year with the most recent data shows we were up 39,000 bpd average over 2005. Its not much, but at least you should get your facts somewhat straight.
As for the HL. Only 8 of 50 countries that have peaked actually did so when the HL suggested they would. That essentially means that the Prophet has a 16% chance of being right.
HL work GREAT for predicting future production from a region AFTER it has peaked, not before.
As for the trolling issue, as it was stated before, a troll is someone who doesn't bring anything to the table. That very clearly does not describe any of the people you want to see 'addressed' in the near future. But I bet you would like to have no dissenting voices on this site after the thrashing you received about the super giant production :laughs:
The problem with the most recent data is that a few months down the road the numbers have most often been revised downward. It will probably be March or April before final figures for 2006 are released. That 139,000 bbl/d increase may be revised down to a 139,000 bbl/d drop.
2006 Supply up 0.7-mbd over 2005
December - 85.45-mbd
Russia: new record 9.84-mbd (up 40kbd)
Saudi Arabia: 8.52-mbd (down 100kbd)
Mexico: 3.59-mbd (up 40kbd)
Canada: 3.42-mbd (up 60kbd)
december iea stats
(1) The EIA shows the most recent crude + condensate production number to be 655,000 bpd below the 2005 peak. Note that I said that crude oil production was down.
(2) Khebab's post on Cantarell shows how "unimportant" the super giant oil fields are.
(3) As I said in my post, I am primarily focused on larger producing regions as models for the world and Saudi Arabia. As predicted by the mathematical and historical models, world and Saudi crude oil production are declining. So, again, until you and Freddy get some production data to support your predictions for rising crude oil production, why do you continue to attack the method, even as the production data, most recently in Mexico, support the method?
Hello Westexas,
This argument, again?
How many more times?
Denial then affirmation, affirmation then denial, denial then affirmation, affirmation then denial ...
Come on, man. there's more to life than HL Plots. Also, more to life than oil. More to life than the Oil Drum, especially.
Sincerely,
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
Mooooooo!
you do know your not actually helping?
you may not like dmatthew1, but at least he is mature enough to actually talk instead of filling the site up with spam like what your doing.
no his posts are not spam, you might not agree with what he says but it's NOT spam. spam is posing 'mooo' as the only work in your post every time a person you don;t like posts.
i move that the people who do this get a 24 hour warning ban.
I disagree
The sum total of his above post is a series of injunctions to WT on how WT should live his life. When he is not dictating how WT should live his life he is dictating how RR should live his life. When not engaged in these topics he describes his moonlit walks with a banana.
These topics may strike you as deeply profound. I simply do not see how they have bearing on the topics that appear to be the subject of this site.
I do not know enough to either like or dislike him. I cannot find any content apart from the injunctive, hence the moooo.