DrumBeat: February 1, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 1, 2007 - 9:51am
Topic: Miscellaneous
U.S. Cautions Europeans to Avoid Oil, Gas Deals With Iran
The Bush administration is warning European oil and gas companies against investing in Iran, trying to head off a push by Tehran to attract new investment by international petroleum giants.In the past two weeks, the administration has met with European oil company executives about the Middle East, and during one session a senior State Department official cautioned that the situation with Iran was "hot and is going to get hotter," one executive said.
For the first time since the dawn of the nuclear age, scientists came up with an “end of the world” scenario in the 1980s that had nothing to do with the U.S. or Soviets pressing a button. The doomsday delivery method, they feared, was overpopulation.Twenty years later, symptoms of overpopulation’s strain on the system are headline news: thinning ozone, global warming, over-fishing, water shortages, peak oil….
Saudi Aramco expanding seawater plant
Once completed, the Qurayyah plant is expected to be the world's largest seawater treatment plant that will be used for oil recovery, with a capacity of 14 million barrels per day.
Little-known Russian company reportedly discovers massive Siberian gas field
The field, known as Angaro-Lenskoye, holds some 1.22 trillion cubic meters of gas according to Russian C2 reserve classifications, and 61.79 million tons of gas condensate according to C2 classifications.
Oil May Fall as Production Rises, Demand Growth Slows, RBS Says
Oil, which has dropped 27 percent from the record reached in July, may fall to $45 a barrel by 2011 as output increases and demand growth slows, said Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, the U.K's second-largest lender.
Exxon, Shell, BP May Say Profit Fell as Gas, Oil Rally Ended
Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc may report fourth-quarter earnings fell, the first time the world's three largest oil companies all reported a decline since mid-2002.
Global warming means millions of climate refugees
A decade or so ago, greens coined the term "climate refugees" to describe the future victims of global warming.Today, experts say such refugees may already number in the millions and could reach 200 million by century's end, stoking tensions and potential for conflict.
Russian Government Okays Rules on Strategic Assets
The Russian government gave initial approval Wednesday to long-awaited draft legislation restricting foreign companies' access to Russia's natural resource wealth and select Russian industries, Russian news agencies reported.
Indonesian gas potential burns dimly
A series of contractual production-sharing and long-term-supply spats pitting the Indonesian government against multinational energy companies and big natural-gas importers in Japan has recently tarnished Indonesia's reputation as a reliable business partner. It has also undermined the gas sector's overall earning potential - crucially at a time when global prices have surged to near-record highs.
"These are ugly decisions, but you either drink water or you die. There's no choice. It's liquid gold, it's a matter of life and death," said Peter Beattie, premier of the northeastern state of Queensland.
Warming linked to stronger hurricanes
Global warming has made stronger hurricanes, including those in the Atlantic such as Katrina, an authoritative panel on climate change has concluded for the first time, participants in the deliberations said Thursday.
Young professionals and peak oil
Young Professionals are vulnerable to the shocks that Peak Oil will bring to our society, but we are also well equipped to tackle energy descent, perhaps more realistically than others who simplistically advocate alternative fuels and vague technological fixes.
The best method of carbon sequestration
Now that the Bush administration has admitted something every thinking person already knows--that the world is warming--and now that the administration is fully behind the search for alternative fuels, we can expect more talk about the benefits of carbon sequestration.
EU too Confident on Carbon Capture, Germans Say
German energy bosses and government officials question European Commission calls for mandatory use of carbon capture when burning coal after 2020, saying Brussels is too confident about the technology's future.
Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: The Age of the Electric Car
It is time for some good news. In recent weeks there has been a spate of announcements about plans to develop electric cars and much better batteries to power them. Although few new models will be ready for sale in a couple of years, by the end of 2007 there should be many technology-proving prototypes driving around. This in turn should give us better insight into how soon electric vehicle technologies might become available and whether there will be limitations such as prohibitively high cost, inadequate performance, or shortages of specialized raw materials that might prevent their widespread adoption.
Marlboro College Launches MBA In Managing For Sustainability
Responding to the need to educate business leaders who understand the value of people and planet as well as profits, the Marlboro College Graduate Center is now accepting applications for its new MBA in Managing for Sustainability.
Nigeria: Government Creates 3 Energy Research Centres
Amidst rising energy crisis in the country, the Federal Government yesterday approved the establishment of three new national energy research centres that would ensure greater efficiency of the energy sector.
India should achieve energy independence by 2030
President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Thursday said India should achieve energy independence by 2030 through hydel capacity, nuclear power and non-conventional energy sources like solar and wind power besides thermal power.
Biofuels 'superpower' Angola soon to be self-sufficient in food production - FAO
Decades of gruesome civil war, landmines, blood diamonds, hundreds of thousands of refugees, the total destruction of infrastructures, near state collapse... these are some of the common images that come to mind when we hear about Angola. But things are changing rapidly in the former Portuguese colony. The fragile peace struck between the ruling MPLA (formerly backed by the Soviets) and the UNITA (backed by the US), was strengthened by the death in 2002 of Unita leader Jonas Savimbi. Since then, the country has stabilized and has attracted foreign investors interested in tapping the country's large oil resources.
European fuel cell bus trials 'successful'
European trials of fuel cell-powered buses, currently taking place in nine European cities including London, have been hailed a success by the project's operators.
Building America’s Zero Energy Homes
Canada: Environment trumps economy, poll suggests
Pollster Allan Gregg said Canadians would be unlikely to tolerate a major downturn in the economy because of environmental policy, but people do seem ready to make some personal sacrifice.
Shell Oil president says energy abounds
The challenge in meeting increasing demand for energy isn't coming up with new sources of supply, Shell Oil President John Hofmeister believes."There's plenty of energy to be had," Hofmeister told a Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce luncheon at the Washington Athletic Club Wednesday. That energy will come from current and emerging-technology options ranging from offshore oil and gas deposits to Canadian oil sands, Western U.S. oil shale, coal-derived synthetic gas, biofuels, hydrogen fuel cells, wind and solar, he said.
But Hofmeister warned, "The obstacles to getting it are man-made."
Oil: It's Back To Supply And Demand
The speculators who bid up the market last year are in retreat. So much for the new reality.
Turkey sends warships to Cyprus amid row over oil deals
Turkey has sent warships to international waters off Cyprus amid a growing row over oil and gas exploration deals the island's internationally recognised government signed with Egypt and Lebanon, the NTV news channel reported.
Japan Asks China to Halt Gas Output in Disputed Field
Japan asked China to halt any new production of gas from a field in the East China Sea claimed by both countries, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said.
Aramco CEO Predicts Energy Use Rise
The chief of the world’s largest oil company predicted an increasing dependence on fossil fuels despite the emergence of alternative energy sources in a talk yesterday sponsored by the Harvard University Center for the Environment.
Gasoline prices have likely hit bottom, feds say
U.S. retail gasoline prices appear to have bottomed out now that crude oil costs are rising again, and pump prices are expected to start climbing, the government’s top energy forecasting agency said on Wednesday.
Al Gore nominated for Nobel Peace Prize
Former Vice President Al Gore was nominated for the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his wide-reaching efforts to draw the world's attention to the dangers of global warming, a Norwegian lawmaker said Thursday.
U.N. panel to link warming to humans
The U.N. climate panel is set to issue its strongest warning yet on Friday that human activities are causing a damaging global warming likely to bring more heatwaves, droughts and rising seas.
Has the White House interfered on global warming reports?
More than 120 scientists across seven federal agencies say they have been pressured to remove references to "climate change" and "global warming" from a range of documents, including press releases and communications with Congress. Roughly the same number say appointees altered the meaning of scientific findings on climate contained in communications related to their research.
John Michael Greer: Technological Triage
Technological triage requires more complex judgments than the battlefield variety, however. Not all technologies are of equal value for human survival; it won’t do us any good to preserve video game technology, let’s say, if by doing so we lose the ability to grow food. Some technologies necessarily depend on other technologies—firearms, for example, presuppose a certain level of metalworking ability. Finally, technological triage involves four categories, not three. Alongside technologies that can’t be saved no matter what we do, technologies that are certain to be saved even if we do nothing, and technologies that will be saved if we act and lost if we do not, there are technologies that have gone out of existence but could be brought back and put into use if action is taken now.



A bit of history
There seems to be some confusion about when Saudi started injecting water into their wells to keep up the pressure. Aramco started re-injecting gas into Abqaq in 1954 and in Ghawar in 1959. Then finding better uses for the gas they decided to try water injection.
The first Middle East experiment with water injection was in the northern end of Abqaiq in 1956. From Simmons, page 39:
Ron Patterson
I assume you are referring to Leanan's link "Saudi Aramco expanding seawater plant".
Anyone care to infer what KSA's water cut is now?
Conrad, actually no, I posted the above in response to elwoodelmore's post on yesterday's Drumbeat, early this morning:
I only wished to point out, but without putting down elwoodelmore, that this was simply incorrect. Saudi has been using water injection for half a century. This is not unusual. Water injection is now in common use around the world to keep the pressure on reservoirs.
The increasing water to oil ratio indicates that the field is in decline. When Saudi starts increasing the water injection you can be sure they have a very good reason for doing so. This is all part of their effort to improve the decline rate of their giant fields from an average of 8% to 2%. And of course this will probably work....for awhile. But sooner or later that 2% will catch up with the 8%. That means that a field will likely go into catastrophic decline at some point.
One more interesting point that I just thought of. Abqaiq was the first Saudi field to receive water injection. Abqaiq is now completely watered out and Saudi is now trying to milk pockets in Abqaiq to get the very last drops of oil form her.
Ghawar was the second Saudi field to receive water injection.
Ron Patterson
yes, thank you for the clarification. the point i was trying to make was regarding the sea water volume being in addition to the produced water which (presumably) is also reinjected. is this the case?
or are we refering to salt water (produced) and sea water (make-up volume) as one and the same ? it appears from the available publications on the field that this may be the case.
2006 Supply up 0.7-mbd over 2005
December - 85.45-mbd
Russia: new record 9.84-mbd (up 40kbd over November)
Saudi Arabia: 8.52-mbd (down 100kbd)
Mexico: 3.59-mbd (up 40kbd)
Canada: 3.42-mbd (up 60kbd)
december iea stats
What would this look like using Energy Information Administration (EIA) stats instead of using IEA stats?
Thanks in advance,
Rick
This is all liquids, which the IEA defines as --
They forgot to throw in the kitchen sink. Anyway, everyone at TOD should be familiar with the IEA definition.So, am I supposed to be impressed that the world grew the "oil" supply by 0.7 mbd in 2006 over 2005?
I'll wait for the future revision. Jesus wept.
Yes, and here is a key quote from the definition that possibly constitutes the basis for a significant degree of misleading inflation in the all-important "crude plus condensate" category that has been the object of such heated debate lately on TOD:
"Since March 2006, Venezuelan heavy Orinoco crude has been included in the conventional crude oil category."
Does anyone know just how much liquid this statistical sleight-of-hand entails?
0.58-mbd
However, this shouldn't change the "all liquids" numbers if I read it right, just the categorization.
So, while really not off by more than around 1% (esp considering the 2005 hurricane impact), the EIA and IEA give slighly different impressions of the trend, possibly just error. I have still never seen a good justification for weighing one over the other. My preference would be to average them the way Stuart used to do. My bottom line is things are close enough that the unknowns greatly exceed any apparent trends and no conclusions can yet be based on production data. As long as supply is not an issue (inventories in US grew last week) we can't distinguish production capacity/voluntary cutbacks/production decline factors.
Dave, Thanks for the "clarification".
I have lots of "potatoes" in my house; Potatoes from my garden, imported potatoes from safeway, potatoe chips, instant mashed potatoes, tater tots, and hash browns. I would like to include into the "starch catagory" Bulk rice, Rice-a-roni, bread, and pasta.
See I have lots of starches...my family will have starches to eat.
Besides, the addition of different liquids on a volumetric basis can be very misleading because they have different BTU content per barrel. For instance, you need 1.22 barrels of NGPL to match the BTU content of one barrel of crude oil. Volumes are increasing but the energy quality/density is decreasing.
Khebab: I was going to ask if you would repost your plots that showed the BTU content plots in one of the recent drumbeats. This observation is extraordinarily important and a serious answer to those arguing that supply is growing. You cannot argue against good physics.
Question for you and others. Is there any sense of how the EROI will decrease going forward? At 1% energy cost of output it isn't a big deal. At 8:1, we are talking 12% cost and as the return on energy decreases, this really starts to become a significant component. EROI combined with the degrading BTU content could make the depletion problem significantly worse than what people have thought or have plotted to date. It could even make the CERA forecast look bad. Thoughts?
You and Khebab are clearly emphasing a critically important point.
I would just note that EROI doesn't have to be "combined with a degrading BTU content" since the latter is integral to the former.
Ah yes, of course, you are correct.
Does anyone have an EROI historical curve for Texas as it went through peak and depletion?
Here we go:
And in the mean time Yukon Freddie will search fervently for any data that supports his position rather than taking a position that is based on data. Saudi Arabia increasing its sea water injection capacity by 14 million barrels a day sure looks like peak production has set in at Ghawar, especially with their "voluntary" cuts in production.
WAG
Wild Ass Guess?
And to further reinforce the fact that economies can grow despite declining oil use...
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0201/p02s01-usec.html
I can hardly believe that NO ONE brought this up. I'm shocked, yes SHOCKED that this data has been ignored, especially after the rash of 'housing market doom and gloom' and 'the economy will collapse in Q3 and Q4'. I simply can not believe that the members of TOD would ignore such impressive data for the 4th quarter, despite supposedly crashing global oil supplies and the die-off which is scheduled to begin in ernest next year. :laughs:
As I correctly predicted about Q3 GDP 'http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/30/23013/590', and emphasized heavily about Q4 GDP, the Economy grew by 3.5% in Q4! Whats more is that the housing market seems to be getting back on solid ground and the worst really DOES seem to be over. Can it be true? The economy can GROW when experiencing declining oil production!? Say it ain't so!
Surely there are others out there that are as SHOCKED as I am! :laughs:
Being an agnostic on peak oil (fact, don't know when), I shall only touch on the things we DO know about 4Q2006 GDP and the economy for the past 3 years..
It was up 3.50%, alright (we will get revisions in 1 mo) but 3.05% of that or 87% of the growth, came strictly from consumer spending. Unfortunately, personal incomes grew less than spending once again - for the 7th quarter in a row - and so Americans are simply spending more than they make, by liquidating savings and borrowing. This hasn't happened since the Great Depression. Debt is already at 327% of GDP (another record) and get this: for every more dollar we "grow" we borrow 4.1 dollars. Our "growth" is just a junkie's high, induced by ever increasing doses of debt smack. Goldilocks is a dope addict heading for an overdose.
If you are not SHOCKED, you are just reading the headlines.
Fossil Savings + Fossil Fuels = GDP
I'm SHOCKED that you could not detect my obvious sarcasm. Its SHOCKING that such sarcasm seems to be beyond the vast majority of TOD posters. I'm also equally SHOCKED that you would dare suggest someone at TOD look only at headlines and not the underline cause!
BTW, debt is not at 327% GDP. If you believe some shadowy lunatic that is ignored by the rest of the world, more power to you, but the debt ratio is not as high as he purports. The savings rate is troubling. I myself am a penny pusher, only buying things when I need them and very rarely going on a spending splurge. I will point out one thing, however: the savings rate is heavily skewed by increased spending of the very wealthy: they just wont be outdone by their peers!.
That being said: dozens of people predicted the imminent collapse of the US economy in Q3 and Q4 of 2006, and of course Darwinian states that it will now occur this year. I guess doom is the real abiotic oil source as it seems to power most posters these days with an unlimited cynical outlook.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Now STF up and find another blog you troll.
From the Bureau of Economic Analyais
GDP growth (using total for 1970 and total for 1980, for example):
1970--1980 3.19% GDP growth per year
1980--1990 3.26% GDP growth per year
1990--2000 3.28% GDP growth per year
2000--2006 2.56% GDP growth per year
Personal Savings Rate (annual average):
1980 10.0%
1990 7.0%
2000 2.3%
2006 -1.0% (today's announcement?)
USA used to grow at 3%+ and save 10%, now it's 3% and save zero. I think we're already at the point, peak oil or no, where USA cannot grow and save at the same time.
Hothgor wrote:
Hothgor, that is an absolute lie. I have never said the US economy will collapse this year. In fact I never discuss the economy except as it relates to the consequences of peak oil. I have speculated on what will happen to the stock market when peak oil becomes an accepted fact by the investing public. But I have no idea when that will happen. It may be a decade off. And in fact it may be this year but I do not expect it this year. It takes a long while for such a concept to sink in, at least a year or two even when the rest of the world realizes the truth.
When people realize that the economy must shrink forever instead of grow, then I expect the mother of all stock market crashes. People do invest for growth and not shrinkage you know. But I have no crystal ball. I have no idea when this knowledge will sink into the investing public. But I would be shocked if the consequences of peak oil become common knowledge to investors within the next five years.
I suspect what you are confused about here is I said I expect the collapse of Saudi oil production, probably this year. But it may be next year but it is my opinion that we are already seeing the first stages of the collapse of Saudi oil production. I have never said that the US economy will collapse this year. You are just a damn liar.
Ron Patterson
Hothgar is right. And Ron is right. Any search engine or Yahoo search will show dozens of posts by Ron Pattterson wrt his declaration of the impending "mother of all Depressions" and a complete and utter stock market collapse. Where Hothgar got it wrong and allowed Ron the wiggle room for his protestations was that he got the year wrong. It was the Spring of 2004.
Methix he doth protesteth too much:
Ron Patterson 10:28am - "I have never said that the US economy will collapse this year. You are just a damn liar."
Ron Patterson (June 11 2003): "It has nothing to do with your data but I hate the Continental term “bourse”. What’s wrong with the good old American term “Stock Market”? Bourse is a French word meaning “purse” and somehow the connection just does not seem appropriate. Anyway, I agree with you that we are due for a stock market crash, perhaps as early as this month. But I would not be so bold as to predict it that soon. I would guess it would happen before next summer however, likely sooner than that."
As u can see in his own words, this was not predicated on any vast knowledge of PEAK OIL by the americans. He was clear in dozens of posts that we were on the cusp of a a world wide event. There are many more describing the Depression and our new lifestyle: Think "amish".
I have not noticed Ron Patterson get back on the Recession/Depression band wagon since this faux pas over which i took glee in reminding him many times...
It may be my recent posts on Ron's record in calling for the Depression, stock market crash and the escape of control of SARS by the WHO that led Hothgar astray. I am sorry if i contributed to that. Ron's only calls that are ongoing are the 2017 die-off and Peak Oil in 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007.
Freddy, everyond on this list knows you are a habitial liar. I have always said that I expect a crash when everyone realizes that all industry must shrink because of the shrinking energy supply.
I have not predicted that the economy will go bust in 2007. Now you try to cover Hothgor's lies with lies of your own.
Ron Patterson
The only one here that is 'lying' is yourself, Ron. How many times must you be quoted predicting doom and gloom in the future for you to finally fess up that you were at least 'shooting' from the hip and your comments were the typical spur-of-the-moment band wagoner tactics.
Please, don't make me quote you when you predicted the imminent collapse of the stock market in Q4 of last year, and your subsequent comment towards me pointing out that it did not happen.
I believe your response was something along the lines of 'Listen here you little shit'.
Does that ring a bell?
Frauddy and Hothgort; The Mutt and Jeff tag team.
f*ck off
I am making you quote you damn liar. I made no such prediction.
You are a liar and should be banned from this list!
Ron Patterson
Oh my...are you calling the Fed "a shadowy lunatic that is ignored by the rest of the world", then?
Try their Z.1 statistical release "Flow of Funds Accounts of the US", Dec. 7, 2006 page 66. Total debt outstanding $43.47 trillion as of the third quarter 2006...nominal GDP at that time can be found on the same document, p. 20, $13.33 trillion. Ratio = 326%. You are right,it is NOT as high as 327%. Silly me. :)
This, however, does not include the special issue treasury bonds (ie more debt) held by the Social Security, abt. another 4 trillion. Brings the whole thing to 356% of GDP. Highest ever on record. Previous all time high was around 270% in 1930-32. Not a good comparison, what with Great Depression and all...
But, like many people, you may be confusing "debt" with "national" debt, i.e. that which is owed by the govt. alone. This is only a part of the total. Look up the data in the Fed release.
Hi Hothgor,
Thanks for bringing this up.
"Its SHOCKING that such sarcasm seems to be beyond the vast majority of TOD posters."
I'm not at all sure about anyone else. For myself, though, I find it difficult to understand sarcasm, so I'm wondering if you could perhaps also indicate when you decide to use it?
Something I've observed, is that sarcasm often is a sign of strong emotions, and also, it is best understood by people who already have some common framework of emotional understanding. Often online and writing compounds the difficulty of understanding others' frameworks.
Another option would be to try to translate it (into "feeling words") - (www.cnvc.org) - in addition to whatever you express via sarcasm.
Anyhow, for me, I'd appreciate it. I value the exchange of ideas here, and this would help make the conversations more clear to me.
You have made my day!
Hothgor,
I'm a doomer, but at least I don't use the bogus stats and idiotic rationals you use.
I'm sure you believe that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction as well.
GDP measures how many dollars flowed through the economy. When those dollars are flowing in a meaningful compensatory countercurrent to a flow of goods, then GDP is a good measure of the flow of real 'stuff' through the economy. If, however, the economy has managed to produce a great flow of billions of dollars by selling mortgage-backed securities and copies of