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DrumBeat: February 5, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 5, 2007 - 9:12am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Cheney's Fund Manager Attacks ... Cheney
The oil-based energy policies usually associated with Vice President Dick Cheney have just come under scathing attack. There's nothing remarkable about that, of course -- except the person doing the attacking.Step forward, Jeremy Grantham -- Cheney's own investment manager. "What were we thinking?' Grantham demands in a four-page assault on U.S. energy policy mailed last week to all his clients, including the vice president.
Titled "While America Slept, 1982-2006: A Rant on Oil Dependency, Global Warming, and a Love of Feel-Good Data," Grantham's philippic adds up to an extraordinary critique of U.S. energy policy over the past two decades.
What Cheney makes of it can only be imagined.
Richard Heinberg: Five Axioms of Sustainability
My aim in this essay is to explore the history of the terms sustainable and sustainability, and their various published definitions, and then to offer a set of five axioms (based on a review of the literature) to help clarify the characteristics of a durable society.
The Agenda Restated - Kunstler
Out in the public arena, people frequently twang on me for being "Mister Gloom'n'doom," or for "not offering any solutions." I find this bizarre because I never fail to present audiences with a long, explicit task list of projects that American society needs to take up in the face of the combined problems I have labeled The Long Emergency. That the audience never hears this, and then indignantly demands such instruction, only reinforces my sense that the cognitive dissonance in our culture has gone totally off the charts.
'Gas war' forces Ukraine to clean up its act
For years Western environmentalists tried in vain to convince Ukraine to shake an energy addiction that made it one of the world's least energy efficient economies.Then in one fell swoop Russia turned energy conservation into a Ukrainian national priority by doubling the price of gas exports to its Western neighbour at the start of last year -- before hiking them again this January.
North Sea's Decline & Russia's Intransigence Highlight Gas Challenges & Opportunities
Concern will perhaps be greatest in Western Europe, which increasingly relies on Russia gas supplies as the North Sea enters its twilight years. The decline of the North Sea is illustrated by the winding down of investment in new capacity by the Super Majors. Although a lot of North Sea exploration is being carried out by smaller companies, the fact is that pretty much all of the elephantine discoveries that are going to be made have been made, and it makes sense for the industry’s biggest players to chase opportunities in other places.
Arabs urged to use energy judiciously
Two experts have called for the appropriate use of both conventional and renewable sources in energy-deficit Arab countries which suffer from huge power shortages. About half the Arab region faces power shortage and 20% of its population have no access to electricity, according to Merwat Tallawy, executive secretary at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).
RWE plans one billion euro gas pipeline between Czech Republic, Belgium
RWE, Germany's second-biggest power supplier, is planning to build a one-billion-euro (1.3-billion-dollar) gas pipeline between the Czech Republic and Belgium, its chairman has said.
Oil workers targeted as Nigeria violence grows
Thousands of foreign workers and their families have left Africa's top oil producer since a faceless new militant group launched unprecedented attacks about a year ago on the places where they work, live and relax.
Nigeria: 90 Percent Indigenes to Lose Jobs
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has disclosed that 90 per cent of Niger Delta indigenes stand to lose their jobs in the region if the current insecurity and hostage taking persist.
Nigeria oil workers call off strike
The two main oil-worker unions in Nigeria said they called off a strike planned for Monday to protest insecurity in the restive petroleum-producing region pending a meeting with President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Methane now bubbling from Beaufort Sea
Remotely Operated Vehicle observations revealed streams of methane-rich gas bubbles coming from the crests of pingo-like-features (PLFs) – due to warm water influx. We offer a scenario of how PLFs may be growing offshore as a result of gas pressure associated with gas hydrate decomposition.
UN chief says climate change has driven world to 'critical stage'
United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon has warned that climate change had driven the world to a "critical stage," directly affecting human health and the environment.
EU Says Germany Stifling Progress on Climate Change
Germany's lack of progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions is holding back international efforts to combat global warming, the European Union's Environment Commissioner was quoted as saying on Sunday.
Vietnam highly vulnerable to climate change: expert
"Vietnam potentially is one of the countries where sea level rises could have the most dramatic impact," said Mark Lowcock, a senior official with Britain's Department for International Development on Monday.
As the fervor over global warming continues to permeate the discussions of politicians and the media alike, I’ve noticed a stock set of anecdotal arguments from those who choose to remain unconvinced of anthropogenic global warming. A lot of their arguments remind me of the arguments of those who believe NASA faked the moon landings: “Well, in their pictures you don’t see the stars, so it must have been done in a studio.” Um, have you ever tried taking a picture of the night sky? How many stars do you see? But I digress...
Global action is an amalgam of millions of tiny personal initiatives, and sacrifices - so I'm saying farewell to the slopes.
It’s “You” Who will Save the World
Time magazine has awarded “You” as the personality of the year. Maybe it is a populist sign from a popular magazine, but with global warming and peak oil at our doorstep, it is now “your” turn to save the world with your care for using energy.
Australia says emissions trading needed to fight global warming
A worldwide system to put a price on harmful gas emissions should be a key part of any plan to combat global warming, but should not come at Australia's expense, Prime Minister John Howard has said.
Australia: Oil supply report to be released
A Senate report into Australia's future oil supply will be released on Tuesday.It comes as peak oil theory experts and environmentalists prepare to link growing concern about global warming to the over use of oil.
Neighbouring countries may end up with the blackouts currently experienced in South Africa.Eskom plans to divert exported electricity when the domestic supplies run short.
Eskom has export contracts with three countries - Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe - and according to a report recently done for the department of public enterprises, Eskom will be allowed to cut the electricity supply to those countries with just 24 hours notice.
Just as the ink on my article last week about this administration's mismanagement of the power sector since 1999 was starting to dry up, the country was dealt another knock out punch by the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN). PHCN through its Public Affairs unit informed the country that power generation dropped again by almost 60 per cent from over 3,000MW to below 1,500MW.The blame was placed squarely on Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), which had shut down its gas gathering and compression facilities for routine maintenance as well as Agip's new Independent Power Plant (IPP) at Okpai.
One of the issues that always comes up in sustainable agriculture discussions is food security, and there’s a good reason for it. If something were to happen to the centralized food system, whether it be a bird flu outbreak or a terrorist attack, the only way to feed ourselves would be with local farms. The problem is that most of the farms we now have aren’t diversified enough to feed us.
Russia: Dependence on Oil Could Hurt Growth
News that the GDP grew a healthy 6.7 percent in 2006 met with as much anxiety as cheer among analysts, who said the economy got lucky last year with the oil price but is not diverse enough to stay ahead if that luck runs out next year.
Environmentalists Need to Help Fight Bush's Ethanol Surge
Corn-based ethanol has been at the center of a well-funded misinformation campaign launched and perpetuated by the Bush Administration. In fact Nicholas Hollis, President of the Agribusiness Council, believes that "ethanol is the largest scam in our nation's history."
Algae-Based Fuels Set to Bloom
Relatively high oil prices, advances in technology, and the Bush administration's increased emphasis on renewable fuels are attracting new interest in a potentially rich source of biofuels: algae. A number of startups are now demonstrating new technology and launching large research efforts aimed at replacing hundreds of millions of gallons of fossil fuels by 2010, and much more in the future.
Total sets its sights on nuclear energy
Total, the French energy group, has begun to eye nuclear energy as access to oil and gas becomes more restricted in countries reluctant to allow foreign investment in their most precious resource.
Washington D.C. Prepares a Master Pedestrian Plan
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/04/AR200702...
Also check out the Arlington Master Transportation Plan (draft II)
http://www.arlingtonva.us/departments/EnvironmentalServices/dot/planning...
Including the Following Elements
Streets
Transit
Bicycle
Pedestrian
TDM
Parking and Curbspace
By the way, the new DC director of planning, Harriet Tregoning, spoke at a sold-out event at the National Building Museum last week. Tregoning is a longtime leader in the smart growth field, and she strongly supported new trolleys and streetcars in DC. Expect to see action on existing proposals and, possibly, additional routes proposed.
There have been some developments in the push for a Metro tunnel in Tysons corner.
http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6944
Emphasis mine.
I have been involved with the various issues around the Anacostia Streetcar Line, walked the route, made suggestions, etc.
John Deatrick, chief Engineer of DC DOT has been the driving force behind streetcars for many years now. I know him well.
I had a "Collabrative Endeavor" draft on building streetcar lines between DC DOT, New Orleans Public Works and New Orleans RTA in his in-box when Katrina hit.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Hello AlanfromBigEasy,
I consider you one of the TOD PTB for your tireless efforts at promoting RRs & Mass-transit. Because of your postings: I can't imagine anyone on TOD locally voting down an urban transit proposal. I hope your endeavors and influence continue to grow--keep up the good fight!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I agree, though I think a strong Mass-transit program needs to include an emphasis on car pooling with electrified cars.
Russian oil exports down 1%, gas exports 3% in 2006 - ministry
11:42 01/ 02/ 2007
MOSCOW, February 1 (RIA Novosti) - Russian oil exports fell 1% in 2006, year-on-year, to 249.91 million tons (1.84 billion bbl), the Russian Industry and Energy Ministry said Thursday.
The ministry said in a statement that exports to member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) declined 2.9%, to 36.92 million tons (271.36 million bbl), and to other countries 0.7%, to 212.99 million tons (1.57 billion bbl).
At the same time, oil deliveries to the domestic market rose 5.7% in the reporting period, to 219.57 million metric tons.
The ministry said the country's natural gas exports fell 3% in 2006, year-on-year, to 201.13 billion cubic meters.
Exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union rose 0.3% to 160.34 billion cubic meters, but supplies to ex-Soviet states fell 14.1%, to 40.79 billion, the ministry said.
The share of Russian energy giant Gazprom in the aggregate of gas output in 2006 fell from 85.9% to 83.9%, year-on-year.
gregor
There has been considerable focus on Saudi petroleum production and a great deal of speculation on their actual reserves. Whatever those reserve numbers are, you can bet that the Saudis have more than the Russians. And Russia is the world's current number uno production champ.
Isn't it then reasonable to presume that decline in Russia is likely to be more eminent and pronounced than Saudi Arabia?...
Based on Khebab's HL plots, I predict that the big news for 2006 will be confirmed declines in both Russian and Saudi crude oil production.
Based on Khebab's HL plots, I predict that the big news for 2006 will be confirmed declines in both Russian and Saudi crude oil production
Didn't Russia prduction actually increase during '06? Or did you mean '07? And my 'gut' feeling is that SA production is currently linked to demand, not supply. I'm another person that feels there is an inherent error range in mathmatical models that are applied to complex issues such as a specfic resource peaking and going into decline. Obviously the Saudis could put an end to this speculation but that's not likely.
In the past, SA production has been all over the map as the Saudis have responded to changing market circumstances (Arab oil embargo, North Slope, Iran vs Iraq, Gulf War I) and I believe that this explains their present production.
My guess is that Russia will beat SA to the production tipping point.
Byron
(I meant 2007 in my first post.)
Based on Khebab's HL plots, Russia--at least in their mature basins anyway--is about 90% depleted, and Saudi Arabia is about 60% depleted. The recent rebound in Russian production has now made up for what was not produced after the Soviet collapse, so Russian production should start falling rapidly.
Saudi Arabia and Russia are the world's two largest oil exporters. Rounding out the top three exporters is Norway, which is about 70% depleted, based on the HL plot.
So, based on HL:
#1 Exporter is about 60% depleted;
#2 Exporter is about 90% depleted (mature basins anyway);
#3 Exporter is about 70% depleted.
Production doesn't work that way WT. As a Geochemist, you should know that. Its not like we in the US can stop producing oil for 1 year, then produce twice as much next year. misrepresentations like these are the kind of irresponsible posts that cause us to criticize your work with using HL.
And you say this because you are a world renowned expert, and you considered all the relevant geologic and production factors at play here - including perhaps Russia introducing better technology they did not have before, or perhaps that they were overproducing their fields, and a rest period allowed them to recover? Or perhaps they just drilled more wells - perhaps horizontally?
Sometimes Hothgor, you become so anxious to step on WT's serious efforts that you act like a little boy wetting his pants with excitement. Think about it for a bit.
Francois.
Your kidding me right? 'Resting' a field only prevents parts of the source rock from compressing and trapping oil. Resting a field does not increase the pressure of the field: it doesn't just magically refill itself, and if they do, then surely it means abotic oil exists! :rolls eyes:
Russia is not simply 'recovering' from their down production in the 80s and early 90s: they found new oil and are exploiting it. New technology is also present, and if you believe that is why their production has skyrocketed, then you must admit that new technology will undoubtedly help us get more oil out of the resource basin: you can not have it one way and deny the other after all.
I'm sorry, but Russia like so many other regions does not fit perfectly with the HL. The sooner we come to grips to that the better our understanding of peak oil will become.
I see what sa is doing as a better indication of peak than HL... 3x rigs in 2 years, planning for 7x, imo will want 10x before long; stated intent to revitalize fields long abandoned; no new fields even found, much less under development; reduced production as price surges to all time record and as russia grabs the #1 mantel; and, per their announcement, they are now down to <8.5Mb/d, substantially less than the production allowed under the new opec agreements.
As Simmons says, virtually all sa fields are very old, c1950, it cannot be surprising that these, and the world's other giants, are at the end of their productive lives. SA declining while russia is increasing, albeit slowly. IMO sa production tipped last year, russia production by 2010, and russian exports in 06. REgarding world production, some of freddy's punters have an accurate read on new projects, but imo are not properly considering accelerating declines in the worlds's largest fields.
SHortage of rigs may affect both timing of new projects and the ability to maintain production in old fields. Crashing tanker rates and soaring rig rates are pretty much what you would expect as the world hits, or passes, peak production.
...and as russia grabs the #1 mantel; and, per their announcement, they are now down to
But note that it's Russian exports that are down, not production. This is the point that WT has been beating everyone over the head with for a looonng time. And it's a point that I have never heard discussed in the main stream media. Kinda like getting KO'd in a boxing match where the left hook puts your lights out (exports fall) and then your head hits the mat, doing even more damage (production falls).
Has anyone attempted to do an HL of Hummer production as an indirect precursor to PO:)
Russia's year over year increases in production have been slowing dramatically. Before you start declining, your rate of increase drops.
So, all three of the top net exporters are showing lower exports, and two of the three are showing lower production. When Russian joins the lower production party is when it gets very interesting.
SOmething wrong with my past two posts... part of what I wrote was cut off.
I was saying that SA is now down to 8.5Mb/d, per their own statement, substantially less than their agreed opec cuts. And, they are raising prices, per today's drumbeat, apparently content to drive buyers towards other suppliers, so maybe the cuts are continuing.
Meanwhile, as Simmons says, all of their fields are very old, should not be surprising that they are nearing the end of their productive lives. And, this is true of (as WT says) all other giants. Russia, too, has very old fields and, like sa, is not bringing large new fields (excluding sakhalin - ng?) on line; their production is flattening, exports down, imo production to follow soon. IMO the problem with bottom up analyses is that analysts are assuming decline rates that have recently become too low.
Tanker rates crashing, rig rates soaring... pretty clear that tanker fleet owners expected more demand today, and rig fleet owners less... looks pretty peaky to me.
KSA currently has around 1500 active wells. Texas has around 50,000. Trust me, they will need to drill a LOT more before the two regions are similar.
Due to what seem to be site problems, my post was lost. Short story - I am not sure that comparing wells from 1920 or 1940 in Texas, many of which are still producing as stripper wells I assume, with the modern techniques used in Saudi Arabia, such as water injection / bottle brush, means that a count of wells is very relevant.
Horizontal/X-mas tree wells in KSA precludes an apples to apples comparison of the absolute number of rigs in KSA vs. Texas. I believe the relative change in the number of rigs is a more accurate take on the state of depletion in KSA.
Or perhaps they just want to reserve the rigs so they can't be used elsewhere. Neat! Less new oil found, less old oil extracted, more money for them.
Hmmm. During the dotcom heyday, many of the larger computer firms raided Univ of Waterloo grads who compained shortly thereafter that many of them were not positioned within those firms. The B team. It seemed like those with deep pockets were attempting to keep this (human) resource from the competition. When the dotbust occurred, they were let go. It was a great conspiracy theory at the time and jives with your proposed strategy...
Five utilities form US west transmission group
3:42p ET January 23, 2007 (Reuters)
NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Utilities in five western U.S. states are in the process of setting up the Northern Tier Transmission Group, which is designed to facilitate coordination of big power lines in the area.
The group is likely to announce plans for transmission line projects in the next half year, said Robert Kahn, spokesman for the NTTG.
The NTTG will not be an independent entity, so it will not serve as a regional transmission organization.
The five utilities are PacifiCorp., Idaho Power, Northwestern Energy, Deseret Power Electric Cooperative, and the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems.
NTTG co-chair and Idaho Public Utilities Commissioner Marsha Smith said "Much can be done quickly. For one, we will offer transmission customers a new level of insight into the workings of the transmission system enhancing its value to all consumers."
The NTTG will strive to improve available transmission capacity and expedite planning for grid expansion and collaborating on control area operations...
"Enhanced data sharing between our respective control areas will enable us to better share existing resources and more easily integrate new resources such as wind power," said John Cupparo, NTTG co-chair and vice president for transmission at PacifiCorp...
Sorry no public link I could find,
Best Hopes,
Alan
Kunstler came out swinging, and yet, it is just the same shouting into the wind he has been doing since 1993 with Geography of Nowhere.
In a way, the fact he keeps trying is almost painful - reality is the only thing which will change the behavior of most Americans, though possibly, he is too decent a man to wish that on America.
Personally, being essentially (if not exactly chronologically) a generation younger, I could care less if baby boomers like him face a horrible future - as a matter of fact, the idea of them leaving the party before having to clean the mess appalls me.
And his appeal for younger people to take care of problems his generation is in charge of - priceless. Literally. He isn't going to pay for any of it, he is merely hoping to take advantage of other people's work - a perfect synopis of the American Baby Boomer, as they squandered their parents' wealth while caring nothing about their childrens' future - until they discovered that the future belongs to their children, who are unlikely to be happy at their parents' self-indulgent self-justifications for decades of selfishness.
Luckily, in my view, the future is now, and the baby boomers will get to reap what they have sowed since 'growing up.'
And I think Kunstler is right about things getting ugly - it is just one of his blindspots to imagine that somehow, it won't involve people his age.
I never got the impression he thought his generation would be spared.
In an attempt to keep the post fairly short, a number of shortcuts were made. For example, Kunstler is quite convinced (maybe reasonably, maybe not) that the Sunbelt will suffer, mired in a miasma of militaristic religosity and racism as the rednecks return to their roots, in contrast to the more temperate traditions of New England, or the new culture forming in the Pacific Northwest. As with many of us, I don't honestly believe he expects to have to deal with the changes coming by 2015, much less 2050 or 2100. This as seen in his reaction to a snowstorm, where Kunstler was about as prepared for an easily foreseen future as those he generally scorns - in other words, he wasn't. His response was to drive somewhere else, where the electricity was still working.
His suggestions are good ones, generally, but it is hard not to notice that they are directed to others to do the work which their elders didn't.
Kunstler remains hard to fathom - on the one hand, he actually seems to care about the nation he lives in, while on the other, his writing describes why the death of the American Dream is the only way for rebirth of something more worthy.
As a sidenote - his contempt for 'canned entertainment' was a real sign of how out of touch he is. I don't honestly think that music players being powered by rechargeable batteries (I have a few solar battery chargers - don't we all? Are we buying throw aways from a giant retailer?), shared among cell phone users (the Third World seems to be able to have a functioning cell phone infrastructure), is not likely to fade out that soon. His disgust at much of what is common in American life also prevents him from seeing the benefits of an archive.org, or www.gutenberg.org, or any number of non-commercial web music providers (wfmu.org is a real treasure) - or even a Flickr or Youtube, which is not really
about canned entertainment. He thinks the Internet is something like a cable network, when in reality, it is merely a way for various networks and devices to share data - and that this collaborative networking is something new. In other words, could TOD keep going if the power went out on a regular basis? Sure, by using servers in Canada, Europe, etc. and technical skills which seem to be possessed by a number of readers. The Internet doesn't really have an on/off switch.
Well, obviously he won't be around in 2100. But judging from his writing, he expects the spit to have hit the fan by 2030...when the oldest baby boomer will be only 85. If he doesn't think he'll have to deal with it, it's because he thinks he'll have died by then. And not of old age.
I'm not so sure. A lot of peak oilers think iPods will be among the technology that will be saved in the triage. But iPods are built to last only about two years. Apple wants it customers to buy a new one every year.
I could see the MP3 player fading away fairly quickly, simply because it's a luxury, not a necessity.
I don't think YouTube, Gutenberg, Wikipedia, or even the TOD would necessarily survive a peak oil crisis. They aren't free. Someone is paying for the hosting space and bandwidth. And they may not be able or willing to keep paying if the economy tanks.
During the Great Depression, a lot of households that once had phones gave them up - they could no longer afford them. I think the same thing will happen with the Internet. As more and more people drop off the net, it will become less and less useful. The price will be increasing even as utility decreases.
In terms of the music or the Internet, this gets tricky. Humans have a large interest in music, and I thoroughly expect recorded music to survive for a long time, as it is an area humans have a long track record of investing their time and efforts in. I listed wfmu.org on purpose - there are some great DJs who play music recorded in all sorts of places, and to the extent that my hard drives, my gold CDs, my DVD-RAMs, etc. last, those 5,000 hours plus of music (with HTML playlists) are pretty easily accessed.
The Internet is fairly distributed - for example, I am quite certain that there is more than one computer with all of Project Gutenberg's books on it - and what we value will be preserved if possible. Music is one of those things, as are books.
It is an open point how long humanity can preserve digital data, and one which is based on unknown variables, but to the extent that humans have been recording and preserving music for generations there is no reason to think they won't keep doing it. To keep with the theme of my starting post, there is no reason to think that the baby boomer's top 100 will be preserved, however.
Ever since visiting the U.S. in 1997, I think most Americans have a very distorted view of what the Internet is, in part, because of constant advertising intending to promote the Internet for commercial gain only. However, most European cell phones are more than adequate to handle such major Internet functions as e-mail (SMS or texting on a cell phone), or getting schedule information for the train, or displaying a map. They also play music, take pictures, and in the current generation, play movies on tiny screens. The PC based idea of the Internet is very American-centric, actually. Cell phones which simply allow people to share information, both locally and through a network, are quite common in most of the world, especially in those places where the requirements of a PC in terms of cost and infrastructure are simply too high. I can imagine the 'Internet' as considered in American eyes being supplanted by the 'Internet' as seen through a cell phone user's eye - though in my eyes, it is all the same Internet.
Perhaps. But is it really so distorted? These things exist - iPods, cell phones, music - because large corporations are making money off them. They are part of the cheap oil fiesta - even cell phones.
Music does not exist because large corporations make money off it - though a number of companies which consider themselves the owners of virtually all that Americans see and hear would like everyone to believe that.
The music on wfmu.org, a completely listener supported radio station (no corporate or government funds) comes from all over the world - including shows which only play 78s, or programs which feature music made without any corporate approval - corporations are as eager to shut down music as they are to sell it. (Just ask Negativland about the letter 'U' and the number '2' along with a picture of a U2 spy plane on the album cover.)
Certainly, things like my cheap USB flash memory MP3 player were delayed for years until it was no longer possible for the RIAA to block sales of such things (check out the history of the Diamond Rio), and the reason the iPod has such success in America (much less so in Germany, where sharing music for no money among family and friends is utterly and completely legal as of today) is because it has a somewhat functioning DRM system which allows iTunes to exist, at the sufferance of the record companies - but what Apple sells in a year is what a good file sharing protocol like Bittorrent handles in a few days.
It may be that digital storage will be a huge mistake, but the interest in human beings to enjoy music, despite corporations interested in nothing but money, is long established.
You know what I meant. The whole music industry that exists to make songs "popular."
Of course there will always be music. IPods stocked with thousands of songs...maybe not.
In what time frame are you referring? Even post-peak, I don't see all the glitzy toys simply disappearing, I believe that more people will simply be priced out of that market. More and more of the middle class will become the low-class. The upper middle class and the high class are used to all their toys, and you'll be damned if they can't have them.
Even post-peak there is plenty of energy to go around. I think it will just become more unfair who will have access to it.
I don't see the glitzy toys simply disappearing, either.
However, I think a lot of the fun of these toys are because everyone has them. If you're the only one with Internet access, you can't e-mail or IM your friends and family. What good is file-sharing if there are only a few people able and willing to share files? If Wikipedia is edited by only a wealthy, idle few (or even bought out by a corporation or government to push its agenda), will it still be as useful?