DrumBeat: February 7, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 7, 2007 - 10:12am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Australia: Report urges vehicle congestion charge
Australia must reduce its reliance on oil and consider imposing vehicle congestion charges in major cities, a key report on the country's future oil supply suggests.I moved this article back up to the top of the list, because we now have a link to the full report:The analysis by the Senate's bipartisan Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport committee also calls for increased funding for ethanol research to help develop the biofuels industry.
The document, tabled in parliament on Wednesday, contains 10 recommendations aimed at shoring up Australia's future energy supply and making the country less dependent on fossil fuels.
Australian Senate Final Report on Peak Oil [PDF, 1.3 Mb]
Exurbs hardest hit in recent housing slump
Distant suburbs of major cities experiencing biggest decline in price and sales since summer of 2005..."It's been hard for sellers to comprehend, and I'm usually the bearer of bad news," said Mike Wagner, a real estate broker who works in Loudoun. "The news is: Your home is worth $100,000 less than it was a year and a half ago."
With record profits, some investors believe dividend boosts are in order. But experts say managers at the majors are making the prudent choice in holding back.
Greenest cars...are all Asian.
Special: The End of Oil - Part 1 airs on Link TV this week:
The End of Oil - Part 1 is the first half of a special four-hour programming block exposing the facts and quickly approaching consequences of our dwindling world oil supply. The special features the highly-anticipated feature documentary Crude Impact, and the film Protecting the Heart of Everywhere by the Pachamama Alliance.There will also be live online discussion with Richard Heinberg and other oil experts.
China Suggests Gas Field Has Not Started Production
A Chinese official suggested Tuesday that reports claiming China has started pumping natural gas from a disputed gas field in the East China Sea are incorrect.Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu, speaking at a regular press briefing, said the reports "do not tally with the facts," adding China carries out oil and gas development in the East China Sea only in its own territorial waters.
China's armed forces ordered to cut costs, reduce energy use
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has ordered China's armed forces to cut costs and save energy in response to the government's call for a resource efficient and environment-friendly society.
China approves Sinopec, Sinochem port expansion near Zhejiang oil reserves
China's government has granted approval to China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, and China National Chemicals Import & Export Corp., or Sinochem, to expand their crude oil terminals in eastern Zhejiang province near the country's strategic oil reserves, the country's top planning agency said Monday.The expansion will allow the terminals to handle Very Large Crude Carriers with loads of 250,000-300,000 deadweight tons and increase their shipment capacity by a combined 22.5 million metric tons annually.
China begins pouring oil into 1st strategic reserve
China's first strategic oil reserve base began operation on Monday as oil started filling up its tanks, according to a National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) official.
As energy demands devour crops once meant for sustenance, the economics of agriculture are being rewritten.
Governments urged to take swift action on trade of biofuel
A coalition of civil society organizations on Tuesday urged governments to immediately suspend all subsidies and other forms of inequitable support for the import and export of biofuels.
Yet all this has taken place against the backdrop of three record harvests in a row, a sure sign of how strong the ethanol appetite for corn production is turning out to be. It’s tempting to assume that the effect of sharply higher prices is confined primarily to the agricultural sector. But where corn is concerned, we are all part of the agricultural sector. The historical cheapness of corn has driven it into nearly every aspect of our economy, in the form, most familiarly, of corn syrup. The low price of corn over the past half-century lies at the very foundation of America’s historically (and unrealistically) low food prices.
Energy efficiency, aid to poor suffer in priority shuffle
Under a 2005 energy bill signed by President Bush, an array of programs was promised more money.But when Bush unveiled his new budget Monday, some of these programs — including energy assistance for low-income families and energy efficiency — lost out.
ExxonMobil Urges Alabama Supreme Court to Overturn $3.5B Award
Asserting the state improperly turned a contract dispute into a fraud action, Exxon Mobil Corporation on Tuesday urged the Alabama Supreme Court to overturn a $3.5 billion punitive damages award. The award resulted from a lawsuit regarding payment of Mobile Bay Project royalties to the state.
Pennsylvania Launches Energy Independence Plan
The state set a target of producing 1 billion gallons of biodiesel and ethanol by 2017, about equal to the amount of fuel Pennsylvanians buy from external sources, costing about US$30 billion a year."We need to keep those dollars at home and put our people to work building the state's energy independent future," said Governor Ed Rendell at a news conference.
China blames the west for global warming
Rich industrialised nations must take the lead in cutting greenhouse gases since they bear the “unshirkable responsibility” for causing global warming, a Chinese official said on Tuesday.
Thai environmentalists halt public hearing on plans for nuclear energy
Angry environmentalists demanded Wednesday that the government halt a proposed plan to build Thailand's first nuclear power plants, forcing the cancellation of a scheduled public hearing on the issue.
Foes rally against Peru oil drilling
Peru's state-owned petroleum company, Perupetro, attended a giant trade show in Houston last week in hopes of attracting well-heeled foreign oil companies to buy prospecting rights in the country's vast, still largely unexplored interior.But the proposed sale has set off an avalanche of protest that literally followed Perupetro right into Houston's George R. Brown Convention Center, site of the NAPE Expo.
Putin: Russian economy must diversify
President Vladimir Putin told Russia's most powerful business tycoons Tuesday that the economy suffers from an over-reliance on raw materials and called on corporations to move toward producing higher-value exports.
Japan to Raise Electricity Supply Target from Renewables
Japan should nearly treble the supply of electricity generated by renewable energy by 2014 from current levels to reduce use of fossil fuels, a government panel on energy policy said on Tuesday.
IEA: 2006-2011 Global Oil Demand Growth Seen Rising 2% a Year
Global oil demand growth is seen rising 2% annually through 2011, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, in a forecast that is more optimistic about the rate of future energy consumption compared with previous five-year periods, because of rapid growth in Asia.World oil consumption growth is expected to rise on average by 1.8 million barrels a day over the five-year period, from 84.5 million barrels a day in 2006 to 93.3 million barrels a day in 2011, the Paris-based IEA forecast in its medium-term report for 2006-2011.
An energy crisis looms over Iran's future. They currently consume half of their oil production. As the consumption rate increases, their available income will seriously diminish.In 2004, oil exports accounted for 65% of the government's revenue. Any disruption within their oil sector would cripple their economy. And their oil industry is continually degrading.
Nigeria: Energy Crisis Worsened Our Problem
President, Enugu Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mines and Agriculture (ECCIMA), Sir Rob Anwatu, has said persistent energy crisis in the South-east is making life miserable for companies, particularly manufacturing firms.
Vietnam Petrolimex to buy diesel from Korea's SK
Vietnam's Petrolimex will buy 640,000 tons of mid-sulfur diesel from South Korea's SK Corp. this year after the Southeast Asian nation's move to tighter fuel standards forced it to end a long-standing deal with Kuwait.
Kuwait to raise naphtha premium
Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) is aiming to almost triple the premium for April 2007-March 2008 term naphtha supplies in this week's talks with Asian buyers, to capitalise on the current bullish market, traders said.
Connecticut: Groups set sights on high cost of energy
While lawmakers continue to make promises to fix problems in the energy system, watchdog groups will meet in Stratford, New Haven and elsewhere this week as grass-roots efforts spread to combat electric utility rate hikes.
Brazil's Lula blasts rich nations on climate
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva blamed wealthy countries for global warming on Tuesday and said they should stop telling Brazil what to do with the Amazon rainforest.
World's churches go green and rally to cause
Dire warnings from top scientists that mankind is to blame for global warming set off alarm bells everywhere -- but many of the world's churches have already "gone green" in the race to save the planet.For Christians, Jews and Muslims, the message is the same -- mankind has "stewardship" of the earth which it has a duty to protect for future generations.
The new statistical rhetoric of climate change
The change in strategy began when Richard Moss and Stephen Schneider—a pair of researchers dubbed the "uncertainty cops" by their peers—urged the U.N. panel of climate scientists to fortify their language with hard numbers. The mapping of phrases to percentages, they argued, would make it easier for policy-makers to apply the science and harder for skeptics to spin it.
Pelosi settles battle over climate panel
Under the agreement, the new committee — to be chaired by Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass. — will hold hearings and recommend legislation, but will have no authority to approve legislation. It also would expire at the end of this Congress.
Thunder Horse Project to Start Up By End 2008
BP PLC's (BP) Thunder Horse oil and gas project is due to start up by the end of 2008, the company's designate chief executive Tony Hayward said Tuesday.BP had previously said the project wouldn't start before mid-2008.
...Hayward also said the start-up of Atlantis, another Gulf of Mexico project, is now due by the end of 2007. The company had previously said production was scheduled to start in the second half of the year. The platform's planned capacity is 200,000 barrels of oil and 180 million cubic feet of gas a day.
About Thunder Horse, Hayward said "it will happen." The project is now three years behind the original schedule.
Investing in Oil Sector Companies - Peak Oil
You may have heard of the theory of "peak" oil. One of the most interesting modern books on this topic is Matthew Simmons' Twilight in The Desert; I heartily recommend this book to all subscribers. The theory of peak oil isn't that the world is literally running out of oil but that actual daily production of oil is at, or very near, a peak.
Oil-rich Abu Dhabi takes lead from high-flying Dubai
Abu Dhabi, which controls more than 90 percent of the vast oil wealth of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), appears to have set its sights on following the example of booming Dubai.
Four people were injured, one of them suffering serious burns, in a gas pipeline rupture that caused an explosion Tuesday afternoon at an Occidental Petroleum site near Tupman in eastern Kern County.
BP posts 22% profit decline, scales back production outlook
BP on Tuesday posted a 22% profit decline in the fourth quarter and scaled back its production outlook for the coming years as it operates more slowly in an effort to avoid deadly accidents.
EU proposes 25 percent cut in new car emissions
The European Commission has called for new car emissions to be slashed by a quarter over five years, but greens accused the EU executive of watering down its plans under pressure from German auto makers.
Global Warming's Simple Remedy
Any lasting solutions will have to be extremely simple, and -- because of the cost implicit in reducing the use and emissions of fossil fuels -- will also have to benefit those countries that impose them in other ways. Fortunately, there is such a solution, one that is grippingly unoriginal, requires no special knowledge of economics and is easy for any country to implement. It's called a carbon tax, and it should be applied across the board to every industry that uses fossil fuels, every home or building with a heating system, every motorist, and every public transportation system.
Here's a question which I posed to someone else and which I will post here:
Regarding humankind and technology, do you believe:
1. Humankind could survive without technology.
or:
2. Humankind survives because of technology.
or:
3. Humankind's survival is impossible without technology.
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
Why don't you start by defining "technology." A spear and a stone axe are technology as is a water wheel.
Hello Todd,
The question is not difficult, Todd. We aren't living in the Stone Age any more. We left that age thousands of years ago.
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
Dave,
I'm one of the old farts here so maybe I have more of an historical perspective than you. You DO have to define what you mean by "technology." There was no household electricity when my parents were kids in a large city. There was no radio. They had ice boxes not refigerators. No one had cars. There were no computers, etc. I have farming friends in Delaware whose families didn't get electricty until the '50s and who still farmed with horses at that time (They were just plain farmers not Amish.). Clearly, the technology at that time was at a far lower level than today. But, inspite of this low level, we are here to discuss these issues.
Perhaps, what you asking is what level of technology is required to maintain the present day consumer society.
Todd
I grew up in the 1970s. We started out middle class but my parents screwed up. We had a phone, rotary dial, sometimes - when we could pay the bill. We had one light bulb per room. Washing was at the laundromat, and at times when quarters were scarce, done on ye olde washboard. We lived in (rented) houses that were built in the 1930s. Welfare and food stamps were the order of the day - the local markets were not allowed to give cash change for food stamps, so they came up with various scrip systems. Each store had its own, from plastic coins of various colors and denominations to just scribbles on the reciept.
The whole mode of life had a very 1930s feel to it. You wanted to go somewhere, you walked or took the bus. On school mornings your teachers would be there with you - they paid a quarter as adults, we kids paid a dime.
I often fished and foraged for food.
The whole mode of life was 1930s-ish, and this was in the 1970s, a time when the US was doing well.
My young adult years, 1980-1986 were likewise more 1930s-ish than not, more bus riding, living in a rooming house, had a bicycle I went all over on for a while. No real job prospects past the most basic work. Work for me meant getting dirty and smelling bad and the first thing was to wash up and clean up after work.
Entertainment was the library, ridin' around on the bike, no museums because they cost, and I often, riding home from work very hungry, got the vegetarian chili at the health food cafe because the kind with meat in it cost a buck more. (In all fairness, the veggie stuff had TVP in it and plenty of lentils, it was probably better.)
This was life when the US was doing well, we're in for a rough ride folks.
Good and concise response, Fleam. Could be we are far enough removed from that reality now to make an important difference, not for the good. It feels so in UK, more so in the bits of USA I know. Could be your relative disadvantage before will give you some advantage henceforth, I dunno. But I do expect 80% of US households to be facing borderline economic (and subsequently real) survival within 5 years.
Rough? I have a nasty feeling most have no idea what even mildly rough feels like. Honestly have no idea how people will react.
I'm with you Agric, I can't believe it, most white Americans seem to have lived these incredibly easy lives. There seem to be actually very few who have experienced actual malnutrition (not the "fat but sick" kind, I mean the ribs sticking out kind) or been where there are almost NO jobs, and what jobs there are, are monopolized by other groups with the blessing of the laws, at least how they're locally interpreted, and in the case of some laws, flat-out put them at a disadvantage - often their wealth* insulates them from the brutal everyday world I and I guess a mostly stifled stratum have seen though.
*Wealth - defined by, if your parents can afford to let you live in their garage, they HAVE a garage, and let you eat their table scraps while you attend the local college, that's enough wealth to catapult you into a degree and the gravy train that follows after. This does not sound very wealthy, but it's infinately wealthy compared to sink-or-swim-by-late-teens beginning many Americans have. People from other countries are generally appalled by the way many American kids are kicked out of the nest to fly or not-fly. If you want to look up another culture like the US's, look up a people known as the Iks.
Todd's question is very relevant and you're ignoring the very profound effect technology, from the stone axe to the microcip, has had on human evolution. You still need to clarify what you mean with your use of the overly broad term "technology."
Example: we have evolved to require vitamin B12 in our diet. This can only come from an animal source. Considering the health risks involved in eating animal dung (one source of B12) we need technology to safely extract this vitamin from its animal source whether it's processing pills out of animal dung or chucking a spear at an antelope. Due to our lack of large claws or 35mph+ sprinting ability without technology we die out from B12 deficiency.
"Due to our lack of large claws or 35mph+ sprinting ability without technology we die out from B12 deficiency."
Earthworms are an excellent source of B12. No spears needed...
https://kb.osu.edu/dspace/bitstream/1811/22250/1/V074N6_359
Moreover, cats eat a lot of insects. If I am not mistaken cats are even worse off in their need for fatty acids and proteins than we are because they have a more specialized diet than us. If you watch your cat hunt for small animals and insects, you might learn a lot about how to get by without any tools.
:-)
And non-Western ppls eat bugs happily for wonderful treats they are. Bugs can be raised, or of course if human population goes way down like it should, there will be plenty free-range.
A photo helps to visualize the tasty treats available on the street here in SE Asia.
Re: B12 vitamin
This is not correct.
As a person who chose a vegan diet 15 years ago in part because industrial meat and dairy contribute to global warming (even more so than transportation), I can attest to sufficient non-animal sources of B12 - (e.g. some yeasts, some misos, as well as fortified cereals, soymilks, and supplements where B12 is derived from non-animal sources).
Whereas as eating a vegan diet, along with restricting personal auto use and flying, and bearing no children can go a lot further to saving the planet for future life on earth, eating a meat- and dairy-intensive diet is demonstrably certain to contribute to the destruction of both your health and the planet.
OK, OK, I concede the vitamin B12 point.
I would still like to hear Dave's clarification on defining "technology" as I believe it's overly vague. You can't deny that it has affected our evolution to the point where we cannot survive without it on the most basic levels.
Can we survive without iPods and cars? Absolutely.
Can we survive without any technology whatsoever? No.
I don't mean to get into a pointless semantic pissing match, but I think this is an important distinction. I think mindless objection to "technology" such as Dave's original post paints Peak Oilers as simple luddites.
It's not quite that simple, some of us are complex Luddites.
Right now I have to have my computer, my car, lights on and I mean every friggin' light on* to do my work, I have tons to worry about, tons of things can go wrong, tons of things can put me on the street, and I hate the stress and precariousness, so I aspire to being on the street.
Compare and contrast being a street musician, living in a nice simple place, and not needing gobs and gobs of electricity to survive.
I need to come up with a certain, rather large, unless I do a bankruptcy, amount of money to buy my freedom, but that is the plan.
*every friggin' light on is a fact - the moment I turn a light off, I find myself jumping up to go into the other room and turn it on again for some damn thing.
Now that really worked for me: complex Luddites
Perhaps I am a combination of that and sceptic technophile. Nah, I think I lost the techno bit a decade or so ago. But philosopical Luddite, yes, I think I have been a while now.
If you don't mind me getting personal I would say worry never works. If the worry is that bad then face the worst and lose the worry, maybe.
Er, well, you are correct about worry, except worry is a good value if you're living in the machine. Check things, double check, monitor the finances, monitor the crazies next door, make sure you lock your car, etc etc yadda yadda, you can get into some real trouble not being paranoid enough, but it's very hard to get into trouble by being TOO paranoid.*
*You can, if you go into full-on OCD or something, of course. But living in the US you'll notice you can't check, monitor, check out, and worry over things too much as a general rule.
TonyF says:
Based on what evidence?
1 billion eating meat and dairy = no problem
7 billion and doubling every 40 years eating meat and dairy = massive dieoff, perhaps not just of us but of all large animals on Earth.
Not in the least bit obvious. Lester Brown and co have been trumpeting this nonsense for decades, but crop production is still so high people are actually trying to make fuel from it.
Don't be daft! Yes people are making fuel for their SUVs from corn, and the price of grain in the world is going through the roof, over $4 a bushel compared to half that price in 2005.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/M
Grain stocks are dropping all over the world.
http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Grain/2006.htm
Simply because people choose to make fuel from their grain does not mean people in other areas of the world are not starving because of the lack of grain. It simply means they are willing to pay more for the grain, to use as fuel. People have only so much money for food. When grain gets too high and their money runs out they simply starve.
Ron Patterson
Exactly - if there'e one message of boards like this, it's that, even though the party's still hopping on the upper decks of the Titanic, the water's entering the lower levels and rising......
Actually, we sent a team down to see why we were slowing down; it was those freeloading liberal barnacles sucking on the hull...
If you use 'liberal' in the meaning of 'pleading for liberalization of the markets while actually aiming for lessening control and curbing of monopolistic practices': of course.
Ever heard of John Robbins?
(from 1989)
Length of time the world's petroleum reserves would last if all human beings ate meat-centred diets: 13 years
Length of time the world's petroleum reserves would last if all human beings ate a vegetarian diet: 260 years
Principal reason for U.S. military intervention in Persian Gulf: Dependence on foreign oil
Barrels of oil imported daily by U.S.: 6,800,000
Percentage of energy return (as food energy per fossil energy expended) of most energy efficient factory farming of meat: 34.5%
Percentage of energy return (as food energy per fossil energy expended) of least energy efficient plant food: 32.8%
Pounds of soybeans produced by the amount of fossil fuel needed to produce 1 pound of feedlot beef: 40
Percentage of raw materials consumed in U.S. for all purposes presently consumed to produce current meat-centred diet: 33
Percentage of raw materials consumed in U.S. for all purposes needed to produce fully vegetarian diet: 2
User of more than half of all water used for all purposes in the United States: Livestock production
Quantity of water used in the production of the average cow sufficient to: Float a destroyer
Water needed to produce 1 pound of wheat: 25 gallons
Water needed to reduce 1 pound of meat: 2,500 gallons
Cost of common hamburger meat if water used by meat industry was not subsidized by U.S. taxpayers: $35/pound
Current cost for pound of protein from wheat: $1.50
Current cost for pound of protein from beefsteak: $15.40
Cost for pound of protein from beefsteak if U.S. taxpayers ceased subsidizing meat industry's use of water: $89
OK look, this is all great data, but, the real problem is too many people on the earth, not what they're eating. True, by all going vegan, we could get that 10 billion on the planet, maybe 15 billion, all in dull-minded vegan semi-starvation, other animals only in zoos because we need all the habitat we can get to grow our precious veggies and grains.....
Ever seen a prairie dog town after its population has crashed? It's just dirt, not a blade of anything green growing, no more prairie dog either, I guess maybe a few survivors run away or maybe the hawks get 'em. And they're vegan.
Does it really matter what food scheme we follow if we're bound and determined to overpopulate enough to kill the planet?
We need a new term here, we have Cornucopian for those who believe oil/energy are unlimited, we need a term for those who don't/won't accept that a population decrease will be necessary.
Popultopian?
Cancer.
Blessed is the man who maketh clothes for the winter out of animal skins, for his technology shall keepeth his ass warmeth.
Hello Francois,
If 6.5 billion humans were to follow this advice the world would quickly run out of animals. This is a technology which is simply unsustainable given the current state of the world's population and also the damage to Nature inflicted by the last ten thousand years of human modification of the Earth.
Any other ideas? Or is humankind really a lost cause?
David Mathews
http://www.geocities.com/dmathew1
"given the current state of the world's population"
Surely that is the whole point. Talk about the elephant in the living room. No amount of alternative fuel and techno-gimcrackery will support this level of population, much less the 9-12 billion that is forecast before some levelling off. We are clearly overshot.
Therefore, the question is not about "humanity" surviving, it's about how many humans, and at what "standard of living".
You clearly believe so but it isn't obvious that the population cant be sustained at 5 billion, 50 billion or even 500 billion. Even with such banal technology as hydroponic greenhouses we could push populations into the hundreds of billions. Then we get back to the deep ecology arguments that suggest (without any real evidence) that humans require all the biodiversity of a rainforest to thrive.
When I look at the evidence, the worlds population is very sustainable at 7 billion, because we're doing it now with a rising global standard of living.
Julian Simon Lives!
The idea that the earth could support, with any technology, hundreds of billions of people is absurd beyond belief. We are killing the earth just trying to support 6.5 billion people. We are drawind down our aquifers, drying up our rivers, drying up our lakes, our topsoil is being washed away and blown away, the rainforest is disappearing by millions of acres per year, animals are going extinct at the rate of thousands of species per year, and the lifeblood that makes this all possible, fossil fuel, is disappearing and will never return.
How long since you visited Sub-Sahara Arfica? How long since you checked the water, river and grain and topsoil situation in China? Do you have a f**king clue as to what is really happening in the world?
And for every Homo sapien added to the world's population, some other animal must give way to make room for him or her. Does that mean anything to you? The world is at 100% of carrying capacity and has been at that point since the Cambrian Era. For every species that adds to its population, another species must give way to make room for their opponents success. We live on a finite world with only finite resources.
Hundreds of billions indeed! I have never heard of anything so absurd in my entire life. You need an education. Lester Brown would be a good place to start.
http://big-picture.tv/index.php?id=62&cat=&a=147
Ron Patterson
Its easily demonstrable with greenhouses and hydroponics.
All replacable with energy and different farming techniques.
Aesthetically displeasing yet it doesnt impact humanity in the least. Open up a few zoos. While we're at it, exterminate all nonhuman primates. They're dirty things that spread all sorts of horrid diseases.
And nuclear power will last millons of years.
China gets richer and richer. Aquifers deplete and desalination plants are opened. Rivers are diverted for even higher agricultural output. It doesnt seem to me that the world is getting poorer in the least.
Nope.
Not even wrong. The finite resources of the world can support tens of millions of hunter gatherers sure. A technologically advanced world can support hundreds of billions.
He's been spewing that stuff for decades and we're no nearer to collapse now.
In all my years on the net I have never witnessed such gall and ignorance. At any killing all the other great apes would make little difference. There are about 200,000 other great apes combined. The population of Homo sapiens increases by that much each day.
Wrong! China is not building desalination plants. They are far too energy intensive. The cost of energy to desalinate one acre would be about ten times the profit in produce or grain from that acre. Anyone who knows one damn thing about desalination knows it is highly uneconomical for irrigation.
Hundreds of billions! Are you for real? Is it possible that there is anyone on earth who is that ignorant? Well, one at least.
Ron Patterson
Yeah, knock that strawman down. I was so totally suggesting desalination for irrigation.
Sure. Its been addressed many times; Cohen wrote a book on it and many others made calculations based on different assumptions. You can technically support hundreds of billions on earth with advanced hydroponics farming and the like. With traditional agriculture perhaps ten billion. With advanced water irrigation, some more ten billion.
But when we get into advanced techniques like global hydroponics and aquaculture systems you can get really huge food yields. I dont think we're going to have this sort of enormous population however, for different reasons that I imagine you would scoff at.