DrumBeat: February 21, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 21, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Oil prices likely to dip - but not far
World oil prices will continue to fall, BP's chief economist Peter Davies believes, but probably not back to the levels prevailing earlier in the decade."We expect prices to stay over US$40 a barrel for the next three or four years at least," said Davies, in Wellington for an international energy economists conference.
He readily acknowledges that like his peers he failed to predict the jump in the oil price between 2004 and 2006 when it rose from around US$27 to a peak of US$78 last August. It was US$58 yesterday.
Bush's Energy Obstacle: Ethanol
Ethanol consumption cuts into gasoline consumption, and if production doesn’t keep up, this would spell higher prices for the alternative fuel. And oil companies, which purchase the overwhelming majority of this renewable fuel type, are especially attuned that this would eat away at their profits. Although the industry is careful not to oppose the president's plan, it has cast doubt on whether Bush's goals are even feasible because the technology to produce such vast amounts of ethanol is not currently available.Red Cavaney, president and chief executive officer of the American Petroleum Institute (API), the industry group that represents companies like ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Anadarko Petroleum, believes that the "flaw, or the twist, with the president's plan" is that it is too reliant on cellulosic ethanol production after 2012. And right now, the technology to produce this fuel type--which is made from waste, wood, plants and other products--on a widespread scale simply does not exist.
US Nuclear Plants' Power Output 2nd Highest Ever
The US nuclear industry generated its second-highest amount of electricity ever last year, while also reaching record low production costs, the Nuclear Energy Institute said Tuesday.
Australia: Crop production worst in 20 years
The federal government's rural economic forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) says 2006-07 summer crop production will fall 59 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes - the smallest haul since 1982-83.
BP drills test well in Alaska for gas hydrates
BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc has completed a well drilled to help test whether it may be feasible to tap some of Alaska's vast gas hydrate reserves, the unit of BP Plc said yesterday.
Oil-hungry Japan looks to other sources
After decades of struggling to reduce its excessively heavy reliance on the Middle East for its crude oil, Japan imported 2% less of the commodity from the region in 2006. Does this herald a lasting change in the nation's oil-import structure or represent just a statistical quirk?
Light at end of tunnel for British coal-mining industry
After 60 years of decline, the industry has been shaken up by technology which has slashed energy wasted in the coal-mining process -- while also cutting carbon dioxide emmissions.The Cwmgwrach facility -- set to restart production this year -- will be the first opening of a deep mine for around 30 years.
Scientists Testing New Natural-Gas Fuel Tank
Scientists in America's heartland are hard at work on a new fuel tank that may help natural gas become more attractive to consumers, especially in smaller vehicles.
Namibia: Green Tower Project Could Solve Power Shortage
Director of Bicon Namibia, Fritz Jeske, explained that Green Solar plants are highly suited to be positioned in the Namib Desert, and Namibia has these in abundance...."Namibia has the potential to become an electrical superpower leading Africa", he said.
Patent Pending on Full-Scale 2.5 kW Wind Turbine
Clarkson University and Warner Energy are collaborating on a small wind turbine design that can be used in both urban and rural areas.
Gas restrictions 'to cost US trillions'
US consumers could pay an extra $1 trillion in natural gas costs over the next 14 years because of drilling restrictions on federal lands and a delay in building an Alaskan gas pipeline, an industry group said today.
Imagine never having to endure the stink of gasoline or the pain of paying at the pump. Imagine cities that smell as clean as the countryside and towns that pump electricity back to the cities from solar plants and wind farms. Imagine energy so cheap and machines so efficient that an energy crisis will seem as antiquated as a flat Earth. Now stop imagining. The technology to do this is already here. The only thing America is missing is the nerve to take it.
East Timor, Australia Ratify Oil, Gas Deal
East Timor's parliament has ratified a deal with Australia that carves up Timor Sea oil and gas deposits worth billions of dollars.
By 2050, the world will have an estimated population of 12 billion people. The demand for energy will be enormous. But one solution to the world's long-term energy demands may be 239,000 miles away.The world is desperately looking for an heir to oil. Among the contenders is the nuclear option.
New Seismic Contract in the Middle East Awarded to Fugro
Al-Khafji Joint Operations is a joint venture between the Aramco Gulf Operations Company Limited and Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (K.S.C.), at Al-Khafji, Saudi Arabia, for oil and gas exploration, development and production in the KJO Offshore area.
The Dublin based sustainability cooperative Cultivate, website - www.sustainable.ie/us/index.htm. - describes itself as a living and learning centre that seeks to provide effective integral solutions to the issues of peak oil and climate change, inspire individuals to explore solutions for living in a more sustainable, creative and ultimately balanced way and answer questions about sustainability.
Price tags for fixing global warming
For economists, Sir Nicholas Stern's report is only a start for calculating the real cost of solutions – and of neglect.
Mr. Spitzer’s Chance on Warming
Given the concerns of the new Democratic Congress, as well as persuasive new scientific evidence of the dangers of climate change, Washington may finally be ready to address the problem of global warming. The chances of that would be better still if New York’s new governor, Eliot Spitzer, would commit himself and the state to a cause that needs all the friends it can get.
Iran's oil production is drying up
A report in today's Wall Street Journal paints a picture of an Iran in the early stages of an energy crisis. Although long considered an energy giant, the Persian Gulf country is facing the prospect of an oil output crash within a decade, and it may start rationing gasoline next month.
Iraqi Oil Wealth Stays Locked Up
Foreign technology and capital are seen as vital to restoring Iraq's crumbling oil industry. But as a draft petroleum law inches its way toward the Iraqi parliament, fresh opposition to the legislation is emerging, underscoring the difficulty that may still lie ahead for any move to invite in international oil companies.
Czechs Grow Wary Over Russian Energy Muscle
A new centre-right government has begun shaping policies to protect the Czech Republic's energy sector from the might of Russia, its main oil and gas supplier.Senior government officials have also warned that Russian state-controlled firms may set their sights on Czech energy supply routes and companies.
Expanding Petroleum Reserve Won't Raise Prices, DOE Secretary Vows
The Bush administration's effort to expand the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will not drive up oil prices on the open market, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said today.The government will buy oil for the reserve in quantities that will be largely "inconsequential" on the worldwide market, Bodman told a Washington energy conference.
Study: Oil sands emissions could be curbed for $1 a barrel
The oil sands could be brought into compliance with Kyoto emissions-cutting targets at a cost of about $1 per barrel of oil produced, a Commons committee was told Tuesday.
Ghana: Inadequate Power Supply Killing Cement Company
The Director in charge of strategy and corporate affairs of Ghacem Ltd, Dr George Dawson-Ahmoah has declared that the current shortfall of energy supplies in the country has significantly affected the production and supply of cement to the market.
London mayor signs oil deal with Chavez
London's socialist mayor signed an agreement Tuesday with Venezuela's state-owned oil company to provide discounted oil for the city's iconic red buses, praising the idea as the brainstorm of the country's leftist leader, Hugo Chavez.
Corporate titans launch new climate change campaign
Heavyweight companies including General Electric and Citigroup joined forces in a high-profile campaign against global warming, demanding that governments mandate caps on greenhouse gases.The three-year-old Global Roundtable on Climate Change launched a new strategy backed by over 85 companies and groups including Air France, metals giant Alcoa, German pharmaceuticals maker Bayer and insurer Allianz.
EPA seeks comment on greenhouse gas inventory
The Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday asked for public comment on a draft report that analyzes the sources of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions over a 15-year period that are linked to global warming.
Humans' beef with livestock: a warmer planet
American meat eaters are responsible for 1.5 more tons of carbon dioxide per person than vegetarians every year.
My first post in quite a while. Just wanted to send a big thanks to Leanan for another great roundup, and to the eds for cleaning up the comments section.
As a longtime lurker I heartily concur with Cartergan!
The NYT has an interesting story on flame behavior... not a puff piece, but an introduction to the emerging research from the field of neuro-social science. The article is here:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yujw8e
It cites a researcher, one John Suler Ph.D. who has an interesting and fairly comprehensive web-site: The Psychology of Cyberspace. It's information dense. It's a well organized online book. And it branches in a host of research findings on cyber group dynamics and cyber group management.
http://www.rider.edu/~suler/psycyber/psycyber.html
In other words, there is a growing, and significant, body of peer reviewed research on flame behavior and troll dynamics. There is information on managing and facilitating group discussion, strategies for interventions...
Interesting stuff. It's not peak oil, but it might facilitate peak discussion .
The latest issue of Discover magazine also has an interesting article on this topic. I'm hoping they'll make it available to everyone when they put this issue online.
Solar power to outshine carbon rival on pricing
Interesting article.
I have a question though, how many solar panels would be required to power the facility?
In the same vain, if you powered an ethanol plant with ethanol instead of natural gas, how much ethanol does it take to make a barrel of ethanol?
Thanks,
Garth
As for using ethanol to make ethanol it just would be too expensive using current farming and distilling practices. If farms used organic methods with minimal use of irrigation (going back to old fashion windpumps would help) then fuel use on the farm could be cut in half. An Iowa engineer figured that instead of selling the DDGS byproduct the distillery could get all its energy needs from burning it.
It's mostly a matter of changing a few rules of the game.
Point to consider;
The comparison is a little off, since those panels would be providing power for decades, while you'd be refilling your ethanol tanks continually.
PV panels can replace their embodied energy in under 2 years (Homepower.. http://www.homepower.com/files/pvpayback.pdf ), while they are typically warranteed for 20 to 25, and still could be producing with a gentle downslope well beyond that. Suffice to say that PV has an Energy ROI on the order of 10 or more already, (new developments not included) which is far and away out of the reach of current ethanol ratios.
Still, we really ought to be using the punch of the FF's we use today to get a jump on PV and WindPower manufacturing, as their surpluses will have a lot of mouths to be feeding once the tanks start drying up and rusting. The markets are clearly showing the benefits of these sources without a lot of civic support, but a 'Manhattan Project' it is not. Not yet.
Bob Fiske
let me point out the key phrase here.
it's a prediction. and should be filed with the same articles saying we will have $30 oil again.
AND the ones that say it'll be $500, too.
I missed posting this when there was a discussion on Manifa in an earlier Drumbeat...
My understanding is that some/most of the Saudi "excess capacity" is from this field. From Simmons I learned that it is heavy sour crude with significant Vanadium content. The Vanadium requires special refining capabilities. An earlier poster noted that the Vanadium content was comparable to some of the Mexican crude that is currently refined in the U.S. I would fathom that the world refining capacity for vanadium laced crude is limited and supply can be met by Mexican exports. Hence, no market for Manifa crude.
The Saudis are planning their own refining complex for Manifa. I don't have the proposed capacity. I read two things into this. From a business perspective, this only makes sense. The output of Manifa can be used for internal comsumption and the added value from refining kept in-house. This also implies that internal consumption currently being met from exportable stock can be freed up as a revenue source. This is all very obvious. The unwritten conclusion that I draw is that if Saudi Arabia is vigorously pursuing Manifa at this time then there is clearly a dearth of other investment options open to Aramco. The writing is clearly on the wall.
I don;t have the figure handy showing KSA production ove the past few years, Khebab, anyone? My reading is that Saudi's pumped flat out for a short period, voluntarily cut back for about 15 months and ramped back up to peak which held about 4-5 months and has turned over. We are seeing a real decline.
Finally, my 2 cts on the recent purge. A dramatic improvement, TOD is readable again. I only wish that we could find a nae-sayer who could be more civil (and have the requisite thick skin!)
I am an energy industry ‘outsider’ and have no secret inside knowledge of Saudi fields. However from reading various energy journals over the last year or so, your statement about vanadium appears quite correct. Over the first half of last year (2006) China, previously a big buyer of Saudi heavy crude (probably with Vanadium), greatly reduced such purchases due to a desire to significantly cut the vanadium content of oil burned by utilities (due to its harmful qualities).
I am also aware there was some new technology developed about a year ago that would reduce the vanadium content in refining by about 50% less than previously attained. Making a guess here that the Saudi refinery mentioned would be the first to use this new process (don’t believe it is being used at present). So the good news is, in effect, the Saudis will be able to bring some extra refinery capacity on line in about 2 to 3 years. But that would just be a short blip up on the relentless Saudi production decline I expect based on westexas’s summaries.
Price tags for GW & PO
A subject that underlines most of my thinking. Still working on my non-GHG North American grid (I may post draft "as is" for comments).
Building the Grand Inga hydroelectric project (44 GW) and related HV DC transmission could (with other existing & planned hydro projects in Africa) could reduce carbon emissions for electricity in Africa to near zero. Cost ? Cheaper than the alternative IMO w/o consideration of the carbon factor. Higher capital costs, lower operating costs.
Switzerland is spending 30 billion Swiss francs to improve their railroads (= to US spending $1 trillion). One major result is moving freight from heavy trucks to (hydro) electric rail. The Swiss expect to generate an operating profit from their railroads. Perhaps not enough to pay a decent return on investment (does one include the lower costs of road maintenance, pollution, accidents ?) but a profit.
Is this 30 billion CHf a "cost" ?
If we stop building highways and spend the same $ on Urban rail and electrifying & expanding our freight railroads, we can start a transformation that will "naturally" result in far less carbon emissions. Is that a "cost" ? Same $ "invested", just different "investments".
And if we add tolls to interstate highways, is that a "cost" ?
Today we finance the functions of gov't with income taxes, property taxes and sales taxes (other sources are small $). If we add a 4th major source of gov't revenue, carbon taxes, and reduce the other 3 major sources, is that a "cost" ?
I am unconvinced that there is a significant cost, measured on a total social net basis, to reducing GW and adapting to PO IF WE MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICES NOW
An analogy to our current situtation is an old analysis of the British Empire. Net costs of running the Empire were about breakeven (from the British POV), but the profits were private and the costs were public (including the hard to quantify human costs of colonial wars). Those that profited controlled the public discussion & policy.
Best Hopes for Smart Choices,
Alan Drake
I tried to "Walk the walk" last night at a community meeting regarding DART (Dallas Area Rapid Transit). I talked about finite (and now declining) crude oil supplies and Alan's proposals for electrification of transportation with a board member.
One interesting thing I learned is that the main north-south light rail line is at 100% of capacity already during rush hours.
I advised the DART guys to take their highest ridership estimate for five years hence and double or triple it.
I recommend that we all start trying to follow Alan Drake's lead and push for electrification of transportation in our local communities. As Alan has noted, if we did it more than 100 years ago, we can do it today.
At least we can be ready with suggestions for transportation alternatives, when gasoline prices start skyrocketing.
Thanks for the effort ! (and the plug) :-)
One nice thing about rail is that more cars can be added cheaply up to the capacity limit of the stations (and then the stations can be lengthened to accept longer trains, usually at reasonable cost).
A short explanation of some of the issues involved in planning for doubling or tripling ridership.
When built originally, I would like all new expansions to accomadate longer trains (i.e. longer platforms, 6 instead of 4 for DART from vague memory). Delete "Art in Transit" (1% of cost for federal projects !) and spend it on longer platforms and more rail cars. And make provision for future grade seperation and even express service (3rd track through station to allow express trains to bypass station, and reduce operational problems with future maintenance).
AFAIK, DART could run more trains with shorter headways if they just had more cars (perhaps electrical supply might need to be upsized as well).
ATM, DART Park & Ride lots are clogged. Should resources be spent expanding these or on more rail ? IMVHO, unlimited bicycle parking should be a priority (build as much as needed, without limit, so there is ALWAYS available space) but people should be encouraged to take a bus or walk to the rail station.
This is a question of priorities and judgment. People that I respect believe that Park & Ride expansion is a cost effective way to increase ridership and ridership density (higher pax density > lower unit costs).
In Minneapolis, adding more cars would increase capacity by 33% at 8% to 9% of total line cost.
Trains every 2.5 minutes should be doable (except for clogging at-grade cross streets). A train every 90 seconds can be done with superb organization and grade seperation (see Moscow as one current example and many examples from 1930s).
Current new Urban rail designs economize on future capacity expansion, an issue that will bite us in the future.
It is VERY cost effective to build longer platforms, make provisions for higher electrical demand, and even make unbuilt plans for future grade seperation "in case" pax demand doubles or triples.
Washington DC built 8 car stations for their subway and opened with mainly 6 car trains (some 4 car AFAIK). Today, they can see the need for 8 car trains on many routes, and these will be packed within a decade or two EVEN WITHOUT PEAK OIL. Would that they had built 10 car stations.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Double Decker Trains?
These are very common in the Netherlands, and a joy to ride.
Nearly all RER around Paris is Double Decker (Réseau Express Régional, medium range transit).
Several US commuter rail lines use double decker cars. Tri-Rail in South Florida (West Palm Beach to Miami) is one that I have ridden.
However, they are only used on commuter rail lines. The overhead wires (and tunnels & underpasses) of light rail (tram) are too low for this solution for, say, DART (Dallas).
More pax/car is good, except when it slows operations. It takes time for people to board and get off, and much longer when they line up to use the stairs up and down. Delays are acceptable at the beginning and end of the line but not in between.
Tri-Rail has people getting off & on all the time, there are few "busy" stations where a third or more of the people get on or off, so double decker works for them.
A very good solution in some places :-)
Alan
Please note the electric trolley wires to power the French train.
In the US, the Long Island Railroad is electrified as is the Northeast corridor (and Philadelphia-Harrisburg) although Boston's MBTA runs diesel locos down to Providence, RI under electric wires.
Caltrain is about to electrify a few lines and hopes to do more.
Electric commuter trains run faster due to faster (and smoother) acceleration and braking as well as reduced operating expenses. BUT electrification is a "frill" that is hard to justify when the lines are built.
Best Hopes,
Alan
I've always wondered why Japanese style communter trains, electrified, good acceleration, lots of standing space, aren't more popular in the rest of the world.
In England there has recently been an outcry about there not being enough seats on commuter trains. If they had to run enough trains in Tokyo to make sure most people had a seat, there would have to be a train every couple of seconds during rush hour...
Metra in Chicago (is it still Metra? they keep changing the names as politics & funding change) has doubledecker cars. I grew up in the 60's riding the upper deck on the Chicago & Northwestern line and those same cars are still in use. In use and in good condition.
Yep, still Metra. We had to wait for one on the Amtrak out of Chicago yesterday. The doubledecker cars are cool. The kids almost extracted a promise to take the doubledeck Amtrak trains sometime. I figure in a few years, that will be the only we we can afford to get to the west coast. It will take longer than flying, but the extra legroom and electric outlets at every seat, and seeing the fantastic views that you fly over by air, will probably make it worthwhile.
We took Amtrak doubledeckers cross-country almost ten years ago. I didn't want the toddler stuck in a car seat for 6000 miles. It was great but after they ran out of food in the snack bar, the club car was mobbed. I'd do it again, though.
One thing I notice every day in Stockholm Subway is that "the art how to exit and enter" the trains have deteriorated.
The doorways fast becomes clogged with people that tries to enter while others are exiting. I estimate that a lot can be done in this regard for a better capacity. Perhaps different doors for exiting an entering with those areas marked on the platform will be useful? I havent seen this anywhere i Europe, but perhaps it exists in countries like Japan?
I've noticed that technological solutions, i.e. trains and subways, are coming to the forefront. I would like to propose that every technological solution be packaged with a plan for its own demise. In other words, we must acknowledge that we will run out of the resources necessary to maintain current population levels and the infrastructure that enables such population growth. We must also recognize that if we continue the tech paradigm without a cogent, enforcable depopulation plan, that tech will in fact create the parameters under which population will grow thus making life all the more intolerable for everyone except the hyper rich.
I guess what I am simply suggesting is people look beyond the ten, twenty or even fifty year horizon and think in terms of two and three hundred year planning. If we cannot claim the intelligence to do so, then why are we messing with such unknowns? This all smacks of such delightful inventions as asbestos and dioxin. Sure they solved short term problems, but we did not have enough information to understand the ramifications of their use. Rather than assume that we know enough, we shoud assume we don't know enough. And, by extension, that means old, proven technologies that clearly mesh well with the environment should get top billing and preference. Since we will ultimately head towards a low-tech paradigm no matter what, we should always favor low-tech over the unknown or unknowable consequences of high-tech.
The answer to the question should not be, "Trains will help us continue this unlimited growth paradigm," but "Trains will help us transition to permaculture, local economies, and population reduction."
Personally, I love trains. I miss them. The sound of trains whistling past Kaiserslautern will forever haunt my dreams. The beautiful Washington D.C. stations remind me in some ways of Moscow's stations. Then there is the Metro in Paris. You gotta love it.
As long as we realise that when we make such logical statements as "Busses are better than cars and that trains are better than busses," we must remember there is something better than trains when considered in light of where technology is ultimately headed on a finite planet.
people look beyond the ten, twenty or even fifty year horizon and think in terms of two and three hundred year planning
I used an 1897 subway to daily get to & from the ASPO Boston conference. I daily used (and should again shortly) 1923/24 built streetcars on a line opened in 1834/35.
To compare trains to dioxin & asbestos as some unknown baffles me !
I see no conflict with an up & running electrified train system and virtually any sustainable future out there. Such a rail network will work with a "Business as Usual" scenario or a localized permaculture system (there will ALWAYS be some trade).
I am NOT a romantic "who loves trains" (aircraft would be my greater love). I see their functional utility under virtually any future option.
They are a "silver BB". They are not the totality of all that we should do by far. But to condemn part of the solution because it is ONLY part of the solution seems wrong to me.
Best Hopes,
Alan
very good point. considering that even if we increases our efficiency to squeeze by this problem, we won't make the next one. simply because these solutions will foster more growth and more resource depletion. also facto into this that many if not all the raw materials of these systems require a functioning industrial base to mine them or make them would say that all it does is buy a few more years to continue the party only to have a much worse crash after it.
though i must warn you. by posting this we have now put ourselves on the 'black list' of a good portion of the posters here using the firefox plugin and as recent history has shown those who are put on it are eventually purged from the site for having too different of views. this is ironic though since the person who made the script says he hails form the same viewpoint as we do.
Hey, I resemble that remark!
You are more or less expressing Jevon's Paradox, but you probably knew that.
There is technology, and technology.
One of my objections to nuclear technology is that I don't think we will maintain the sort of technology infrastructure that will allow us to continue building and operating plants, and handling wastes, but those wastes will still be around. Regardless of whether you think wastes can be safely entombed for geologic time without further monitoring or maintenance, those spent fuel rods are currently sitting in water pools at plant sites. If, 50 years from now, they have not been safely entombed, and the last nuclear engineers retire or pass away, how long until those pools evaporate, monitoring systems break down, and radiation released? Will we even have monitoring equipment to notice? Or do people just start sickening and dying, maybe without knowing why?
PV solar is great. This post is being made with solar energy. Will we still have a technology infrastructure to produce PV panels 100 years hence? Thermal solar generators can be made with 1900's era technology. Windmills are relatively low-tech. Hydropower is 18th century technology.
The Archdruid has some interesting things to say on the subject. He offers a slide rule as a great example of the level of technology we might want to shoot for. We basically went to the moon with slide rules (OK, they had some mainframes, but the guys double-checked everything with their slip sticks).
"though i must warn you. by posting this we have now put ourselves on the 'black list' of a good portion of the posters here using the firefox plugin and as recent history "
Just for the record, I for one have not installed or used the Firefox extension, even though I run Firefox browser....I love trains, and planes and automobiles, but an "opinion blocker" is one piece of technology I do not need....besides, I already have one...it's called the scroll bar at the right side of the screen....If I can't take what your sayin', I just scroll down past it...:-)
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
I can't prove it, but...
I'm pretty sure that Kaiser is just a sock puppet for Freddy.
The current standard procedure in Chicago seems to go something like this:
I find myself having to throw the old shoulder frequently just to forge a path through the bodies. Even though there are windows in the doors and the trains come to a complete stop and sit there for a few seconds before opening their doors--so everyone outside can see you are facing the door waiting to get off--no one ever moves.
I ride that train. I live near the track and love the sound. Mercifully I don't have to participate in the a.m. rush, it's brutal. A reason for many to drive. CTA plain needs more rolling stock. If they provided more cars and made them more comfortable ridership would go up. But the pols are still living in the mental universe of Richard I.
I do, infrequently, take Lake Shore Drive to jobs during the a.m. rush. Always bad, it's become worse. North LSD is now at walking speed from 7:30 to 9:30, from Hollywood all the way in. Many of those drivers would happily take a train if the train was not a 1950s cattlecar.
Metra does not have a great reputation for maintenance and I think some of their rolling stock is over 40 years old.
Poor maintenance + Advanced Age = Not Good.
But let Israel bomb Iran and those old cars will be SRO.
Best Hopes for more rolling stock !
Alan
I think the problem is they're already SRO. There's very little margin in most of these old systems, so they're simply not going to help us much in a sudden crisis. The sleepy, comfortable bureaucracies take decades, not days, to do even the simplest thing.
Cattle car, you say? Like this:
http://www.tokyu.co.jp/railway/railway/mid/oshirase/6door.htm
Yes, they do not seem to be in the habit of making good decisions. Witness their recent answer to overcrowded trains and slowdowns due to track work: more buses. I work out by O'Hare and live downtown, and it is a complete hit or miss whether the train has enough room to stretch out in or is a sardine crush. More than once their interminable slowness has caused me to think about getting a car, but not only does the cost of keeping one downtown deter me, it's not exactly the best commute either way. Oh, and just for the record--for Alan--Metra and CTA are not the same. Metra--so I hear--makes a profit and has a better reputation all around than the CTA.