DrumBeat: February 20, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 20, 2007 - 10:08am
Topic: Miscellaneous
After months of shadowboxing with the fanciful spectacle promised by Peak Oil Theory -- conventional world reserves are running out and prices will soar -- now may be the time to move on to another, more realistic perspective. A number of analysts are gearing up for a major oil-price correction, one that could drive a barrel of crude back down to a level that better reflects oil's long-term price: US$30.
Wind power blows through China
The central government's heavy hand helps spark opportunities for Chinese and international players to green up the coal-fired country.
Saudis' cutbacks raise oil concerns: Some question country's reserves
It is not just the decline that is troubling, Hamilton said. "I don't know for sure what the answer is, but I find the facts disturbing."
- Cutbacks started when prices were high.
- The Saudis have been nearly frantic in their recent drilling for more oil.
- Some reports show the Saudis increasingly relying on lower-quality, less valuable oil.
Russian economics ministry forecasts oil, gas exports growth by 2010
Russia's economics ministry said Monday it forecasts growth in oil exports to 273 million metric tons (some 2 billion barrels) and natural gas exports to 221.6 billion cubic meters.
In 2006, Russia's oil exports totaled 249.9 million tons (1.8 billion barrels) and natural gas exports 201.1 billion cu m.
Russia Lowers Economic Growth Forecast, Cuts Crude Oil Estimates
Russian leaders have warned that growth, which has been bolstered by oil and gas and helped the country pay back billions of dollars in debt, may slow as energy prices fall. President Vladimir Putin has urged the country’s largest companies to do more to lessen Russia’s reliance on raw materials exports, as crude oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel this year.
Why the precautionary principle doesn't cut both ways
Tillerson's plea is one that is heard daily in industry circles when any kind of regulation is discussed, especially any that are labelled "environmental." The argument amounts to an economic precautionary principle. We are told that we must not allow any regulation to proceed if it could harm economic activity. After all, what will happen to the poor, corporate leaders say, if we cannot lift them up with economic growth? (There is, of course, no discussion about lifting them up through the redistribution of wealth, say, via public services; naturally, that kind of discussion is considered a breach of etiquette among the world's CEOs.)
Japan, China Agree to Restart Gas Field Talks as Soon as March
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing Friday agreed to resume talks as early as March on possible joint development of gas fields in an area claimed by both countries in the East China Sea, a senior METI official said Monday.
Pollution chokes Ulan Bator skies
Mongolia is one the most sparsely populated countries in the world, with about 2.6 million people. But it is becoming increasingly urbanised - according to the UN Population Fund, 60% of the population live in urban areas, approximately one third of them in Ulan Bator.
Governor Richardson Announces Tesla Motors Assembly Facility for Albuquerque; 400 New High Wage Jobs
Tesla Motors, based out of San Carlos, Calif., will use the plant to produce its “WhiteStar” car, a four door, five-passenger sports sedan, which is 100 percent electric. The New Mexico plant will be the company’s first assembly facility in the United States.
Will CO2 Drilling in Southern Utah Solve Global Warming?
Work is underway in Southeastern Utah on a big and very expensive scientific experiment. The idea is to see if part of the solution to global warming is tucking greenhouse gases deep underground.
US 'Iran attack plans' revealed
US contingency plans for air strikes on Iran extend beyond nuclear sites and include most of the country's military infrastructure, the BBC has learned.
Guilt-Free Pollution. Or Is It?
Some carbon-offset firms have begun to acknowledge that certain investments like tree-planting may be ineffective, and they are shifting their focus to what they say is reliable activity, like wind turbines, cleaner burning stoves, or buying up credits that otherwise would allow companies to pollute.
Artificial trees: A green solution?
Carbon capture, in the form of "artificial trees", is one idea explored in the BBC Two documentary Five Ways To Save The World. But could these extraordinary machines help to mitigate our excessive burning of fossil fuels and its consequence, global warming?
Australia refused talks on sea levels, island nation says
The Prime Minister of a Pacific island nation in danger of being submerged if sea levels rise, Tuvalu, was rejected by his Australian counterpart when he sought a meeting on the topic, senior Tuvalu officials said.
Energy solution is growing on trees
Sweden, Finland, Austria, Britain and Germany, among others, are investing heavily in energy plants fuelled by woody waste, often mixed with flammable municipal waste.
The inconvenient truth about IT can be found in a simple equation: at the heart of every computer is a machine that sucks in power, and creates information plus heat.
China plans to shut smaller, dirty, power plants
The State Council, China's parliament, recently endorsed a plan to accelerate closure of the nation's smaller coal-fired power plants. The plan, developed by the nation's top two energy policymaking bodies - the Office of the National Energy Leading Group and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) - sets forth concrete targets for decommissioning older and smaller plants.
Aim for low world warming despite hardship-scientist
The world must aim to limit the temperature rise due to global warming to just two degrees Celsius (4 F) despite the near impossibility of achieving it, World Bank Chief Scientist Robert Watson said on Monday.
It isn't gridcrash that makes the lights go out
There's been some interesting discussion since the revision of the Olduvai Hypothesis about gridcrash and blackouts as a likely indicator of infrastructure crisis. Personally, I don't really have a strong opinion about whether the grid as a single entity will live or die.
...But what I do have a strong opinion on (you knew there had to be something ;-), is this: I think most of us ought to be preparing for a life without electricity, regardless of whether we believe that peak oil may cause disruptions in the electrical grid.
Latin America prepares for prosperity, sparked by biofuel boom
International maize prices, driven up by the burgeoning US ethanol biofuel industry, have soared to their highest in a decade, making farmers in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina feel as if they have just won the jackpot.
CERA: High Rig Costs, Tight Labor Markets to Support Gas Prices
Rising rig costs and a tight pool of qualified labor are likely to support natural gas prices over the next two years, according to Michael Zenker, head of global gas for Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
"Rig rates climbed 30% per year in 2003, 2004 and 2005," Zenker said in an interview at CERA's annual energy conference here.
CERA’s peak oil critique has a credibility problem
Headed by Pulitzer Prize winning petroleum historian Daniel Yergin, CERA employees hundreds of people who study energy developments. In the last two years, CERA has spearheaded a campaign of peak oil denial. One of its senior staff, Robert Esser, has been quoted as saying, “Peak oil theory is garbage as far as we’re concerned."
CERA’s arguments about peak oil are showing a few chinks in the armor. Consider just the following...
EU backs target to cut CO2 emissions
European Union governments agreed Tuesday that the 27-nation bloc should cut carbon dioxide emissions 20 percent by 2020.
They also said they would support a steeper 30 percent target from 1990 levels if other industrialized nations would match European efforts to curb global warming.
Drilling for information in energy sector
Stephen Carter comes from a family of oil and gas drillers and explorers. His father, grandfather and great grandfather were all in the exploration business. He grew up in Dallas, where all his friends and neighbours were in the business. If it rains over there, it rains oil. So when he called me up in the middle of last year to tell me he was leaving his hedge fund, AndrewCarter, and starting a new hedge fund, Keyrock Energy, with hedge fund manager Hohman Finney, I wasn't surprised. But I was a little annoyed.
Bright idea? Australia pulls plug on light bulbs
Australia has announced plans to ban traditional light bulbs in a move Prime Minister John Howard called a practical step toward slowing climate change.
Global warming scientist is encouraged
A top scientist in the study of climate change says she is optimistic about public understanding of the dangers of global warming.
"I'm incredibly encouraged," Susan Solomon beamed after speaking to the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Is U.S. near a tipping point on global warming?
U.S. policy on global warming seems headed for a tipping point, with politicians, business leaders and economists joining environmentalists to call for new laws to limit greenhouse gases that spur climate change.
Robert Newman's History of Oil
British comedian Robert Newman's humorously insightful perspectives on oil and how the world became addicted.
Michael T Klare: Targeting Tehran
Has Bush, in fact, set a specific time limit on his patience? Although it is impossible to know, there are a number of indications that such a limit has been set, possibly for later this year.
Saudi Arabia has not had an easy press on its attitude to global warming. It has been portrayed abroad as being as much in a state of denial about it as American neo-cons. The accusation is that it does not support alternative energy because oil revenue would be hit and so it stubbornly refuses to accept the existence of climate change.
South Africa: We can avoid the energy crisis
Appropriate energy models and proper management of natural resources were needed to avert a looming energy crisis in southern Africa, said Science and Technology Minister Mosibudi Mangena yesterday.
Nationalization Contracts to Come into Effect by March 15
The 44 contracts negotiated with 12 oil firms as part of Bolivian President Evo Morales' nationalization program will come into effect by March 15, government news agency ABI reported hydrocarbons minister Carlos Villegas as saying.
Given the current direction of the Chavez government, al Qaida is the least of its worries in regard to its oil production.
That's because, even in the absence of an attack, Venezuela's oil production is declining at an alarming pace.



Hi
I really appreciate the new drumbeat - quiet, relaxed, fruitful discussions - look, its been on for a quarter of an hour and no strange comments :)
Yeah it is really nice to have the old TOD back. I really want to thank the editors for getting rid of the following people:
1. dmathew1 = "Humans are evil; Americans are evil; oil industry is evil although I consume their products; technology is evil although I have internet and cable TV; no, I am not a pompous, depressed, hypocrite who loves to not practice what he preaches, humans deserve to go extinct; humans will go extinct; Chinese are evil just like the Americans,....."
2. Hothgor = "I am too intelligent to be fodder like those frontline troops in combat; if you are not a warmonger imperialist like me then you are an anti-American liberal......"
3. Freddy: well you get the picture; I don't have to write about him :-)
In fact, you didn't have to write any of that.
It doesn't show a lot of class.
The idea is to return to, or move towards, an environment of more respect.
That includes everyone.
I did regret my own comment at the top after posting as I realised some repeat discussion about the ban would restart. Sorry about that.
I agree that I shouldn't have written that. But the sense of relief was overwhelming and I got carried away.
Exhibit A: Why posters 2. and 3. were not the problem.
WOW! I still can log on!
The rocket must have missed me and hit Matthews...
No point in starting flame wars against people who cannot now answer back :-(
two comments.
1. if you judge a person or group of people by their actions then dmathew was right our actions are evil. that is of course your one of those humans who care for the only known world in the universe harboring life over money.
2. continue parsing the ideological purge, but don't come crying to me or anyone else when you end up on the wrong side of the next one as the editor's here including leanan demonstrate how thin of skin they actually have by removing people who *gasp* have different views.
As boring as you continue to be, your comments do not capture the sentiment of the many "thank yous" I have received in the eds box over our decision...and perhaps, if you would do a little thinking instead of whining, which may be too much to ask, the fact that you are still posting perhaps answers your cries of unfairness.
It was not an ideological purge. It was not a perspective purge. It was a purge of a lack of civility and respect for what we are attempting to do here...and, frankly, if you don't buy that, I could really care less.
As I said over on the other thread:
We made decisions. If you don't like them, as I said above, I could really care less.
First of all, there is absolutely no evidence that dmathew1 cares about the environment any more than the CEO of Monsanto. Writing melodramatic posts on the internet is not evidence of any constructive action.
Secondly, after you have heard him for the first time, there is no point in listening to him again. He has nothing new to say other than the rant I posted in my original comment.
The third point I want to make is that he is a hypocrite. If he truly believes that technology, electricity, oil industry, etc. is evil then why does he not build a shack in the woods and live off the land? He mentioned in one of his posts that he has cable TV with 200 channels (or something like that). Don't you see the contradiction?
And last but not the least, yes, it is true that humans are selfish and all evil flows from that. But that will never change. So what is the point in bringing it up again and again? If you really believe that humans deserve to become extinct then you have start with yourself by committing suicide (I am not really advocating suicide; this is rhetoric).
This is my final post in this thread.
I have been hacking the TodBan script in order to add a function that gives an overview of the number of posts per poster for the current story:
http://graphoilogy.googlepages.com/todban.user.js
Changes:
* function "Show users" that opens a new window containing a table with the list of posters along with their number of posts and their ban status.
* added TOD:Europe and TOD:Canada
The original set of instructions from Greenman is here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2288/160949
Note: I'am not sure the "Manage Posts" function in the GreaseMonkey plugin is working properly. I suggest you to first remove the script and then restart Firefox before installing the new one.
Hi, Khebab. More changes from me, mostly just cleanup. They're in the change log. http://stalkylittleboy.com/todban.user.js
Thanks! I've updated my url above with your version.
Looks great, guys! Stalky: did you merge out khebab's change to add tod:europe and tod:canada?
Three days, and the reason for the script went away, and you guys turn my hack into a masterpiece.
I'm just too old to keep up...
I changed www.theoildrum.com and europe.theoildrum.com into *.theoildrum.com.
I'm thinking to add a Hide Thread option next to Subthread in each comment's header bar. When clicked, it would hide the post and all replies, but leave the header bar, changing the option to Unhide Thread. Any thoughts or requests?
Maybe it's time to learn how to write a proper Firefox extension...
Feature creep. Leave that for a server-side upgrade. Let's finialize this and I'll slap a fresh version on my page.
To others: apologies for airing this stuff on the public forum.
I agree, this is not the place. Sorry, all. GreenMan, Khebab, I'm chris at stalkylittleboy.com; if we're going to keep working on this, let's discuss it somewhere other than the drumbeat.
I agree, my address is Khebab@TheOilDrum.com
About firefox extension, there is GreaseMonkey script compiler:
http://www.letitblog.com/greasemonkey-compiler/
but it seems to produce only .xpi compatible with FireFox 1.0.
Wow! This is fantastic. I installed Greasemonkey several days ago and was trying to create a ban script myself, but I just don't know enough about javascript to do it. This will make TOD much more pleasant to read.
Thanks, Khebab and all the moderators of TOD for your work on keeping this forum reasonable. It's a breath of fresh air among all the other sites and their flamewars, caracter assassinations, strawman arguments and pointless "how many angels on the head of a pin" quasi-philosophical pissing contests. :)
Hey, any chance of getting a version for Windows XP for those who dont run Firefox?
If you are asking for an Internet Explorer version, no. It does not support this sort of plugin.
Firefox does run on Windows. Try it, you'll like it!
Yes, try Firefox. It works great on Windows XP. And it has free plugins for just about anything.
Including many that are helpful at blogs like this one, such as HTML formatting, spell-checkers, etc.
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2007/02/20/0220bizo...
Altanta Journal Constitution
WestTexas....check...I've hung my hat on their demise is now, well actually 18-24 mos back.
Yeah, seeing that article, I did wonder if James Hamilton maybe reads Westexas' stuff.
My usual disclaimer: I was building on work done by Simmons, using Khebab's graphs.
The more I think about our future, such as it is, the more I am convinced the Alan Drake is outlining our best chance for getting through this thing:
http://www.energybulletin.net/14492.html
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-01-08-streetcars_x.htm
The author of the Atlanta Journal article is Michael Kanell. He told me in an e-mail last year that he reads TOD from time to time.
Interesting....
This was up on Bloomberg earlier:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=at7Mr3Gt1ec0
Just throwing this one down...what if Saudi really does have the capacity? What if there is a strategy to cover the lost production from Iran once the Israeli (proxy US) attack is unleashed?
There are two ways to build surplus capacity:
1. drill and develop
2. cut production
KSA has been doing both.
I'll bet the White House calls KSA Oil Ministry every week and asks "can you supply 2.5 mbpd to cover Iran's exports yet?".
I think KSA surplus capacity is the wildcard in all this. They may have gone on their drilling spree not because they were unable to maintain current production, but because they were unable to maintain their desired level of surplus. They may have been cutting production to maintain that level of surplus, and drilling like mad to try to increase (or rebuild) it.
As a point of information, the Saudis recently stated that 9.5 mbpd was 'flat out', and as an unrelated reminder, Iran exports no oil to the US.
So unless they get production down to 7.0 mbpd from around 8.3 to 8.5 mbpd now, they won't have 2.5 mbpd surplus capacity anytime soon.
I've also heard that "pumping flat out" production comment. I'm not sure I take it at face value. I could be convinced that it means "as much as we are willing to pump". Aren't they still claiming to have over 10 mbpd capacity? We'll have to see.
I'm aware that the US does not import from Iran, but they also have an interest in not pulling 2.5 mbpd off the world markets in the event of a conflict. The same people who thought they were going to be greated as liberators of Iraq and showered with flowers may think they can keep oil flowing out of the Gulf without interruption after the shooting starts.
Dear Sangiovese,
Your comment implies the Iranians will simply shut off thier own oil exports. I find this wildly improbable. From what I have read, a few missiles aimed somewhere near a few oil tankers entering the gulf will persuade most oil tanker owners the risk is not worth the trip. Iran has been developing missile and high speed torpedo technology for some purpose. The entire width of the Strait of Hormuz is easy reach.
Why is this story featured on Bloomberg, but not the main MSM venues?
USS Stennis Carrier Group Deploys Into Gulf Region
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj1S3MI2L7jA&refer=h...
This is the top story at Yahoo right now:
U.S. Navy buildup came after Iran moves
Ha! That's rich! Worried about an accidental confrontation? Throw a few more people into the pool.
just a quick comment on something that struck me a odd....
the man's title is :"World Bank Chief Scientist" Robert Watson
whats next, "newscorp's department of ecology and earth sciences"?
Why wouldn't the World Bank have a Chief Scientist? I'm actually glad they do. Especially Robert Watson, who was IPCC chair when TAR came out. We (the US) did not want to have him return, despite the backing of scientists and most of the developed nations. Of course we (the US) did not get the Assessment report we wanted (it's all OK, we can have our Hummers and McMansions, no problem), so maybe in the end that whole controversy was much ado about nothing.